Computational Engineering and Physical Modeling 2-3 (2019) 53-64

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Modelling Effects of Land Use Changes on Traffic Based on

Proposed Traffic Simulator
M. Jabbari, S. Behzadi *
Department of Surveying Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahid Rajaee Teacher Training
University, Lavizan, Tehran, Iran

Corresponding author: behzadi.saeed@gmail.com

https://doi.org/10.22115/CEPM.2020.207903.1073

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Article history:
Received: 07 November 2019 In this paper, a traffic simulator is designed in order to
Revised: 09 January 2020 investigate the travel demand based on GIS data and
Accepted: 20 January 2020
analysis. In order to evaluate the proposed simulator,
Keywords: four different scenarios are provided for the
Land use change; arrangement of land use services. In first scenario, all
Traffic; service land use are located in the middle of the region;
Traffic simulator; in second scenario, land use services located on the
Geospatial information systems.
periphery of the region; in the third scenario, land use is
defined regularly in the entire area; and finally, in the
last scenario, unchanged statuses are evaluated. The
comparison parameters are Vehicle Miles of Travel
(VMT) and Vehicle Hours of Travel (VHT), which are
measured for these four scenarios. The analysis of the
results shows that the regular distribution of land use
service (scenario 3), with VHT, mean of 33.01 minutes
is the best scenario, while scenario 2 with a VHT
average of 35.12 minutes has the worst performance.

1. Introduction

Recently, one of the main problems in big cities is the unsuitable use of motor vehicles,
especially private cars. This results in traffic congestion with side effects such as air and noise
pollutions, which reduces the health and quality of citizen's life. The increase in the capacity

How to cite this article: Jabbari M, Behzadi S. Modelling Effects of Land Use Changes on Traffic Based on Proposed Traffic
Simulator. Comput Eng Phys Model 2019;2(3):53–64. https://doi.org/10.22115/cepm.2020.207903.1073
2588-6959/ © 2019 The Authors. Published by Pouyan Press.
This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
54 M. Jabbari, S. Behzadi/ Computational Engineering and Physical Modeling 2-3 (2019) 53-64

of traffic networks has been proposed as a common solution to reduce traffic congestion, and
its associated complications. Although this solution reduces the traffic load on a network unit
level in a cross-sectional manner, it encourages the use of the network in the long-term[1].
Ease traffic flow is one of the preconditions for the townspeople. Fast and frequent local
transportation in urban networks makes the city more sustainable and efficient. Due to the
increased traffic volume, traffic congestion makes the life of citizens difficult in the city. In
addition, increasing traffic congestion accelerates air pollution, which reduces the quality of
life [2–4] In the last two decades, urban planning has been drawn to urban development
patterns, which are able to reduce the volume of travel demand by bringing activities closer to
each other. Land uses to determine the location of the activity; therefore, they determine the
locations of travel destinations and destinations [5]. Traffic is basically is a function of land
use [6,7]. There is a clear relationship between land use and traffic volume, so recognizing
the effect of land user type on traffic production helps to manage road and highway networks
more efficient [2,4]. However, unsustainable land use development exacerbates traffic
congestion and increases air contamination. Hence, it is very important to integrate transport
planning with land use planning decisions in order to have a habitable city [8]. Not only the
improvement of land use patterns, but also the efficient location of activities effectively
reduce the time trips, so the decision is mainly made based on the influences of socio-
economic factors, and land use distribution conditions [9,10]. It is very important to
understand the relationship between land use and transportation to design a safe and
successful transport network. Effective use of land encourages urban activities and maintains
roads and other transportation. Creating new roads and developing existing land uses to
increase the attractiveness of the land. When cities grow slowly, land use and traffic planning
are easily matching with each other. However, in the context of rapid economic growth, the
demand for land use increases rapidly, but the development of transport facilities may not
continue fast. Many cities with high economic growth experience heavy congestion and other
transportation problems [11]. Unusual growth of traffic volume and its concentration are
affected by the land use around roads. For example, increasing business activity in the
vicinity of a road section can directly affect the traffic congestion of the morning rush hour
[12–14]. On the other hand, the increase in residential units creates more traffic at the peak of
the evening [15]. In addition, the growth of land uses may attract and generate traffic in large
quantities. Roads, transit and other transport elements shape land development, while types
and distribution of land use affect travel patterns and transportation facilities. The dispersal
pattern of low-density development relies exclusively on vehicles as the primary mode of
transportation. Alternatively, denser urban centers can combine different land uses adjacent to
each other, and encourage various modes of transportation such as biking, public
transportation, and so on [16]. Traffic patterns and congestion will be changed in response to
changing land use in the future. Traffic data on traffic congestion include large scale
information that is not readily available [17]. Hence, researchers consider traffic simulation
as an important tool to represent the traffic and its effect on the environment.
Limited models of traffic congestion are presented to investigate the relationship between
traffic density and urban land use. For example, Wingo Lowdon developed an economic
model of how transport, urban land use, and location affect the way consumers go from their
residence place to their workplace [18]. Alonso [19] improved a model by taking into account
the values for land use in such a way that the amount of different urban designs is inverted
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with the cost of transport to the city center. Izraeli and McCarthy [20] found that the use of
residential land had an impact on density; there was a positive correlation between population
density and travel time. Handy [21] analyzed the effect of land use on traveler characteristics
and found that the rate of travel repeatedly increased where land use density increased, and
the travel distance increased to a level where travel speeds were reduced. Gordon et al. [22]
analyzed satellite data from 82 US metropolitan areas in 1980 to extract information on the
types of land uses (residential, industrial, and commercial). Considering the amount of
employment, it was found that increasing industrial congestion reduces the travel time of cars
as well as residential and commercial congestion. Ewing et al. [2,23] investigated the effect
of the travel time and delay time of pedestrians using cross-country data from 83
metropolitan areas in the 1990s and 2000s. The results showed that travel time in the course
of these two years was reversed with the combined land use index and directly related to
street access.
So far, in most of the outlined researched, the issue of traffic has only been examined from
the perspective of traffic engineers. For this reason, in many of these studies, traffic and
network analysis have been used to solve traffic issue, while addressing other external factors
such as land use is essential. The purpose of this study is to investigate the issue of traffic
based on land use arrangement, and provide a suitable solution. In this research, attempt to
examine the effects of land use on traffic. For this, a traffic simulator is designed that
instantly tracks the area and displays it. In this simulator, the effects of land use changes on
traffic are assessed. For this purpose, the effects of the different land-use layout are
considered on traffic, and the best possible layout is obtained among four different scenarios.
In the first scenario, all land use services are in the center of the area; in the second scenario,
all of them are located around the area. In the third scenario, land use services are distributed
throughout the region on a regular basis, and the fourth scenario is the current status of the
area. For each scenario, the distance and period of time which each vehicle goes to its
destination are examined. Finally, these scenarios are compared and the best one is
determined.

2. Modeling the integration of land use and transportation

The integration of land use development with transportation planning has been recognized as
an important aspect of smart growth and sustainable development [24,25]. In traffic theory,
traffic flow modeling is used to indicate the volume, velocity and traffic density [26]. The
results of transport demand are the spatial distribution of different land use patterns.
Investigating the spatial relationship between land use and transportation is essential for
transport policy and long-term planning. The prediction of land-use change is the first step in
modeling the demand for transport because the future user creates social and economic data
for transport models [27]. Based on the predictions of land use patterns, transport planners
can simulate what steps should be taken to increase positive effects and prevent certain
negative consequences. Therefore, land use prediction for transport planning is inevitable
[28]. Land Use and Traffic Models (LUTI) focus on understanding travel behavior as a basis
for forecasting and managing travel demand [29]. Figure 1 represents the the relationship
between land use and transportation.
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Fig. 1. The relationship between land use and transportation [30].

Land changes are related to the interactions among social, environmental and geophysical
processes [31]. The consequences of land-use change can include losing biodiversity, climate
change, increasing pollution, urban sprawl, and traffic. Demands for the industry and
residential lands contribute to a lot of these changes, as well as transportation developments,
which have changed vast areas of agricultural land along highways to residential and
industrial land [32]. Selecting the right land, proximity to the transportation system is a major
factor, especially in terms of local access and travel costs. Accidental land use development
may increase travel demand, which is the result of a variety of spatial patterns of activities
from different land use patterns. There is a complex relationship between land use and
shipping, so it is important to know how land-use changes are affected by transport in order
to have proper future planning and transport policies [28,33,34]. Planners and decision-
makers can take necessary steps to plan for future growth with the simulation of future land
use conditions. Figure 2 represents the relationship between land use planning and
transportation.

Fig. 2. The Relationship between Land Use Planning and Transportation [11].

3. Traffic simulation
Recently, mathematical simulation of transportation systems, mathematical modeling of
transportation systems (such as freeway roads, arterial paths, metro fields, city center network
systems, etc.) are done with the use of computer software to design and implement transport
systems. The simulation of transportation systems has begun for more than forty years ago
[35], and today is an important part of discipline in the planning of traffic engineering and
transportation. National and local transportation agencies, academia, and consulting firms use
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simulation to help manage transportation networks. To model real scenarios, a spatial

simulation requires data that describes the infrastructure as well as the actual traffic data. One
of which with a sufficient quality can produce valid simulation results[36]. Simulation is
important in transportation because it can study the complex analytical or numerical methods
[37–39]. Traffic simulation models can be divided into macroscopic, mesoscopic, and
microscopic models based on their level of detail [40,41]. The simulation designed in this
research is a micro-simulator.

4. The study area and data used

Tehran, the capital of Iran, is the most densely populated city. With a population of more than
8.5 million, it is the 24th largest populated city in the world and the most populous city in
western Asia. Tehran has ranked 132nd among the most polluted cities in the world from 146
countries [42]. More than two million vehicles per day in Tehran metropolitan area are
considered critical, while Tehran's global position is fluctuating in comparison with other
polluted cities between the first and second positions [43]. Tehran has suffered a severe
deterioration in air quality due to the rapid growth of the population, the fleet of worn-out
vehicles, a large number of industrial units, geographic and weather factors of the region. In
some cases, high levels of pollutants forced authorities to shut down schools and impose
traffic constraints [44]. The increase in population also raises problems with air pollution,
noise pollution, and traffic congestion. Private car trips are common in Tehran, and citizens
tend to use private cars. After the month of October, the traffic situation of the city is usually
worse due to increasing student travel [45].
In this research, the data of streets and land use of Tehran region four have been used (Figure
3). Road and land use data are obtained from the Open Street Map (OSM) site for these areas.
Next, the data is edited and all errors are deleted. The area consists of 4150 parcels, with 10
different types of users. The number of each land use is separated as shown in Figure. 4.

Fig. 3. Display the Tehran area 4 on the map of Google Map.

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Land Use Number

Transport Residental Military Industrial Empety Commerical Academy

Transport
Residental
Military
Industrial
Empety
Commerical
Academy

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Fig. 4. Number of parcels per land use.

5. Methodology
To relieve the traffic congestion in cities, and to reduce energy consumption and transport
emissions, people try to reduce vehicle travel with encouraging active travel (walking and
cycling) and public transport. Besides traffic policies and management, land use policies are
believed helpful to affect travel behavior. For example, recently, a mixed land use pattern has
received researchers' attention[46]. Mixing land use could reduce vehicle use and encourage
active travel [47]. The overall structure of the proposed methodology is seen in Figure 5.

Data importer Evaluator

•landuse •compare the result of
•roads different senarios
•vihecels
•traffic lights

Senario Generator Calculator

•generate four different •calculate VMT (Vehicle Miles
senariou based on of Travel)
distribution of landuses •calculate VHT (Vehicle Hours
of Travel)

Fig. 5. Flowchart of the proposed methodology.

In this research, the land use services are examined in four different scenarios in the region,
then the effects of each scenario are examined on VHT and VMT. The VMT (Vehicle Miles
of Travel) travels as a combination of the vehicle number in the system and their distance.
The VHT (Vehicle Hours of Travel) is calculated as the product of linkage and travel time of
the link, aggregated on all links[48]. In Figure 6, each of the four scenarios is shown; the red
parcels represent the land use of the service. In the first scenario, all land use services are
aggregated in the center. In the second scenario, all of them are located around the area. In the
third scenario, the use of services are distributed throughout the region in the form of multi-
user land use; finally, the fourth scenario is the current status of the region that is being
examined.
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Fig. 6. Displays all scenarios and different service layout (Parcels with red color are land use service).

A traffic simulator is designed to examine the land use change in each scenario over traffic.
This traffic simulator is a micro-simulator of traffic that uses GIS files (Shapefile). Like other
micro-simulators, this simulator produces two kinds of results: animated display and
numerical output in text files. In the animated display, the simulator displays the location of
each vehicle in each time, and in the text files, the coordinates of each vehicle are specified at
each time. This simulator has the ability to display the traffic volume of any street at any
moment. It simulates the volume of streets in different hours of the day. In this simulator,
most of the effort is done to examine the relationship between land use and traffic level in the
city, so the amount of traffic is calculated based on changing the use of one or more parcels.
This simulator has the ability to calculate how long a vehicle has traveled, and how far it has
gone. The framing of the simulator motion animation is shown in Figure 7.

Fig. 7. Motion Detection of the GIS Traffic Simulator at 17:30 o’clock.

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6. Results and discussion

The results of modelling the effects of land use on transportation can be very important in
urban planning for land use planning in the transportation sector. In this study, a traffic
simulator is designed using GIS analyses to investigate the effect of land use change (user
service) on traffic in four different scenarios for Tehran Municipality District 4. To compare
the quality of the scenarios, the parameters of VHT and VMT are calculated in each scenario.
The output of these four scenarios is shown in Figure 8.
Due to the high number of vehicles, one-to-one comparisons are difficult and time-
consuming, so the average VMT and VHT are calculated for each scenario; therefore, better
comparison can be done among these scenarios to select the best one. As seen in Table 1, the
results indicate that Scenario 3, in which service utilities are distributed regularly throughout
the region, is the most appropriate arrangement, while scenario 2 has the worst ranking
among the four scenarios. The notable point in Scenario 1 is that it has made the vehicles less
distant, but did not make it faster, and this reflects the fact that the distance is not a good
measure for the traffic performance of vehicles.

Table 1
The results of the mean VMT and VHT in each of the four scenarios.

scenario mean VMT (km) mean VHT (min)

1 2534.90 34.98

2 2687.86 35.12

3 2612.47 33.01

4 2667.21 34.88

Integration of land use development with transport planning is known as an important aspect
of smart growth and sustainable development. The results of transport demand are affected by
the spatial distribution of different land use patterns. Therefore, modelling and simulating
traffic and the effects of land use changes on the traffic are very important for researchers. In
this research, the best land use arrangement for land use services is investigated. For this
purpose, a traffic simulator has been designed that examines and displays the traffic in the
moment. In this simulator, the change in the use of each land affects traffic. Finally, the results
of the work showed if the user's description of the service is carried out regularly in the entire
region, it will create the best traffic situation; as a result, the vehicles will spend less time to
reach the destination. This simulation will greatly help urban planners to predict and design
sustainable urban development. Based on the simulation of future use conditions, planners
and decision makers can take the necessary steps to plan for future growth.
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Fig. 8. The results of the simulator, the horizontal axis of travel time and the vertical axis of the
number of cars for each scenario.

7. Conclusion

In this research, the authors investigate traffic in Tehran, the most populated city in Iran. The
goal was to find the most suitable location for land use services in terms of traffic parameters.
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For this purpose, traffic simulator is designed to examine the land use services in four
different scenarios. The results obtained in each scenario are then compared with various
parameters to select the most suitable arrangement. The results showed that the scenario in
which land use services were located around the region would create the best traffic situation.
This arrangement would allow for a shorter time to access these sites. In other words,
accessing the results of this research can be very important for urban planners and land use
planning, and can be a good guide to building a sustainable development.

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