Business Finance II: Course Title: Course ID: FIN302 Section: 02 Semester: Spring, 2022
Business Finance II: Course Title: Course ID: FIN302 Section: 02 Semester: Spring, 2022
Business Finance II: Course Title: Course ID: FIN302 Section: 02 Semester: Spring, 2022
Submitted to:
Mr. Mohammad Fahad Noor
Senior Lecturer, School of Business and Entrepreneurship
Independent University, Bangladesh
Submitted by:
Name ID
Pranta Majumder 2022603
Afifa Sumiya Tonni 1930313
Tangim Hasan Shourav 1931347
Mst. Jannatul Ferdows Dolon 1930205
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Table of Content
Acknowledgement ..................................................................................................................................... 03
Letter of Transmittal .................................................................................................................................. 04
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 05
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 06
Average Return ......................................................................................................................................... 07
Average Return for Portfolio 1 .............................................................................................................. 07
Average Return for Portfolio 2 .............................................................................................................. 07
Variance .................................................................................................................................................... 08
Variance for Portfolio 1 ......................................................................................................................... 08
Variance for Portfolio 2 ......................................................................................................................... 08
Standard Deviation .................................................................................................................................. 08
Standard Deviation for Portfolio 1 ......................................................................................................... 09
Standard Deviation for Portfolio 2 ......................................................................................................... 09
Covariance ................................................................................................................................................ 09
Covariance for Portfolio 1 ..................................................................................................................... 10
Covariance for Portfolio 2 ..................................................................................................................... 12
Correlation ................................................................................................................................................ 13
Correlation for Portfolio 1 ..................................................................................................................... 14
Correlation for Portfolio 2 ..................................................................................................................... 15
Beta ............................................................................................................................................................ 17
Beta for Portfolio 1 ................................................................................................................................ 18
Beta for Portfolio 2 ................................................................................................................................ 18
Variance- Covariance Matrix ................................................................................................................. 19
Variance- Covariance Matrix for Portfolio 1 ......................................................................................... 19
Variance- Covariance Matrix for Portfolio 2 ......................................................................................... 19
Constructing optimal portfolio ................................................................................................................ 20
Optimal portfolio for Portfolio 1............................................................................................................ 20
Optimal portfolio for Portfolio 2............................................................................................................ 20
Portfolio Expected Return, Standard Deviation and Beta .................................................................... 21
Optimal Portfolio 1 (Similar Industries) ................................................................................................ 21
Optimal Portfolio 2 (Difference Industries) ........................................................................................... 21
Final Comparison ..................................................................................................................................... 22
Z Score: Prediction of Bankruptcy Situation ......................................................................................... 23
Portfolio 1 (Similar Industries) .............................................................................................................. 19
Portfolio 2 (Difference Industries) ......................................................................................................... 19
Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................. 25
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................... 25
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Acknowledgement
We have taken efforts in this project. However, it would not have been possible without the kind
support and information that we get from the internet. Thanks, and appreciations also go out to
the members of our group who worked on the project and to others who have volunteered to
assist us with their skills. The knowledge we gathered throughout the course will help us develop
our future career.
We are highly indebted to our honorable faculty Mr. Mohammad Fahad Noor, for his guidance
and constant supervision as well as for providing required project details, as well as his assistance
in completing the project.
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Letter of Transmittal
April 7, 2022
To,
Mr. Mohammad Fahad Noor
Senior Lecturer, School of Business & Entrepreneurship
Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB)
Bashundhara R/A, Dhaka.
Dear Sir,
We are overwhelmed with pleasure to present to you the result of our hard work on this semester’s
project on constructing two portfolios and analysis. We have done enough research on the topic to
cover every detail possible. All our group members gave their best efforts in preparing this business
report. We have given our level best to follow all the instructions given in class and concepts that
we have learnt on our course have also been included. The content provided in the report is all
done by our own, However, some references have been taken.
We will be glad to clarify any queries and will be more than happy to accept any corrections or
suggestions related to this semester project report. Thank you for giving us this opportunity. We
would also like to express our gratitude for your support and kind consideration.
Sincerely Yours,
Pranta Majumder
Afifa Sumiya Tonni
Tangim Hasan Shourav
Mst Jannatul Ferdows Dolon
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Executive Summery
The report is based on two different portfolios which contain Seven stocks each. The main goal of
this report is to construct two different portfolios and find out the better performing portfolio over
the last 13 years by calculating. All the information regarding stocks like month ending adjusted
closing price is collected from yahoo finance and other relevant websites and the calculated data
is taken from the excel file.
In this report, we have explained the average return, variance, standard deviation, covariance,
correlation, beta for individual stocks and variance-covariance matrix also by constructing optimal
portfolio using solver and then portfolio expected return, portfolio standard deviation and portfolio
beta for each portfolio and latest years Z-score of the companies to predict the bankruptcy situation
for each of the portfolio. It provides a review of the portfolio stocks and an overall analysis of the
portfolios. The experience and knowledge gained from this group work will help us in future.
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Introduction
Our research is primarily focused on the creation of two ideal portfolios (each with Seven
industries) and appropriate analysis for better performance understanding. We did this by
compiling the closing stock prices of 16 well-known corporations worldwide during the previous
13 years (8 industries in total. Seven industries that are similar and 08 industries that are different)
from Yahoo Finance. We have put a lot of effort into this report. On average return, variance,
standard deviation, and covariance calculations and interpretation individual equities in each
portfolio have a correlation and a beta. Furthermore, we computed Covariance and Correlation for
both portfolios, which is a crucial tool in the creation of an ideal portfolio.
Portfolio -1 was made up of seven companies from the same industry, which was healthcare.
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Mathematical Indicators
Average Return
Return in finance is most usually defined as the change in the value of an investment or a stock
over time. It can take the shape of a price change or a percentage change. Investors typically expect
a positive return, which shows a profit or gain on investment. Negative return value, on the other
hand, shows a loss on investment. We must compute the individual market returns on each of the
company's closing stock prices to get the average return. The formulae we used in the excel
spreadsheet was: = (New Price-Previous Price)/Previous Price
An investor or analyst can assess the company's or portfolio's trendline over time by looking at the
value of the average return. Next, we calculated the average return using the calculations below in
an Excel spreadsheet: =AVERAGE (sum of all the returns of the selected company).
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) here is in the lead on average return compared to the other companies in the
same industry.
Here, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has the highest return among these 8 companies.
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Variance
The term "variance" refers to the calculation of the spread between integers in a data set. It
calculates the deviation of each integer in the set from the mean. The lower the variance, the less
the stock varies widely. In Excel, we used the following formulas:
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation of an investment is a measure of its risk. By determining the variation
between each data point relative to the mean, it is determined as the square root of variance. In
Excel, we used the following formulas:
=SQRT(Variance)
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Standard deviations for Portfolio 1
UNH JNJ PFE NVO ABT ABC BIIB BIO
0.0642 0.0444 0.0585 0.0639 0.0546 0.0627 0.0945 0.0692
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) has a higher standard deviation of 0.0945 in percentage it comes around 9.45%.
The unpredictability is higher for that company.
eBay Inc. (EBAY) has a higher standard deviation of 0.0869 in percentage it comes around 8.69%.
The unpredictability is higher for that company.
Covariance
The directional link between the returns of two variables or assets is measured statistically as
covariance. It is used to minimize a portfolio's overall risk by increasing the portfolio's
diversification. A positive covariance means the variables are moving in the same direction,
whereas a negative covariance means they are moving in opposite directions. Covariance can have
values ranging from negative infinity to positive infinity.
The formula we used in MS Excel, to calculate the covariance of two stocks was,
=COVARIANCE.P was the formula we used in MS Excel to determine the covariance of two
equities (returns for company 1, returns for company 2)
For example, the covariance of Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was calculated
using the formula,
=COVARIANCE.S(SHARE2, SHARE3)
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Covariance of Portfolio 1 (Similar Industries)
Covariance
UNH:JNJ 0.0013
UNH:PFE 0.0018
UNH:NVO 0.0011
UNH:ABT 0.0011
UNH:ABC 0.0016
UNH:BIIB 0.0017
UNH:BIO 0.0016
JNJ:PFE 0.0014
JNJ:NVO 0.0010
JNJ:ABT 0.0014
JNJ:ABC 0.0009
JNJ:BIIB 0.0009
JNJ:BIO 0.0010
PFE:NVO 0.0013
PFE:ABT 0.0017
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PFE:ABC 0.0012
PFE:BIIB 0.0013
PFE:BIO 0.0017
NVO:ABT 0.0014
NVO:ABC 0.0008
NVO:BIIB 0.0012
NVO:BIO 0.0014
ABT:ABC 0.0013
ABT:BIIB 0.0015
ABT:BIO 0.0015
ABC:BIIB 0.0018
ABC:BIO 0.0013
BIIB:BIO 0.0014
In this case, all covariances are positive, however the values of covariance between stocks are
quite low.
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Covariance for Portfolio 2 (Different Industries)
Covariance
DISA:MZN 0.0014
DIS:EBAY 0.0025
DIS:KO 0.0016
DIS:PEP 0.0011
DIS:WMT 0.0007
DIS:BXP 0.0028
DIS:CAT 0.0030
AMZN:EBAY 0.0028
AMZN:KO 0.0010
AMZN:PEP 0.0010
AMZN:WMT 0.0007
AMZN:BXP 0.0011
AMZN:CAT 0.0018
EBAY:KO 0.0007
EBAY:PEP 0.0007
EBAY:WMT 0.0002
EBAY:BXP 0.0027
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EBAY:CAT 0.0031
KO:PEP 0.0013
KO:WMT 0.0008
KO:BXP 0.0011
KO:CAT 0.0010
PEP:WMT 0.0008
PEP:BXP 0.0011
PEP:CAT 0.0007
WMT:BXP 0.0005
WMT:CAT 0.0004
BXP:CAT 0.0029
For portfolio 2, covariances between The Walt Disney Company (DIS) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
are extremely high. Meaning these two pairs of stocks have a very high positive relationship.
Correlation
The correlation coefficient is a statistical technique that is used to determine how strong a linear
relationship between two securities is. The numbers might be anything between -1 and +1. When
the correlation is positive, the two stocks are traveling in the same direction; when the correlation
is negative, the securities are moving in opposite ways. When the value is 0, it indicates that the
two securities have no linear relationship.
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Correlation of Portfolio 1 (Similar Industries)
Correlation
UNH:PFE 0.4528
UNH:NVO 0.4756
UNH:ABT 0.2633
UNH:ABC 0.3192
UNH:BIIB 0.3932
UNH:BIO 0.2778
JNJ:PFE 0.3636
JNJ:NVO 0.5532
JNJ:ABT 0.3613
JNJ:ABC 0.5605
JNJ:BIIB 0.3273
JNJ:BIO 0.2112
PFE:NVO 0.3331
PFE:ABT 0.3587
PFE:ABC 0.5271
PFE:BIIB 0.3251
PFE:BIO 0.2367
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NVO:ABT 0.4161
NVO:ABC 0.3955
NVO:BIIB 0.2006
NVO:BIO 0.1970
ABT:ABC 0.3124
ABT:BIIB 0.3677
ABT:BIO 0.3002
ABC:BIIB 0.3965
ABC:BIO 0.3039
BIIB:BIO 0.2968
UNH:PFE 0.2157
All the correlation values are positive, indicating the stocks move in the same direction.
Correlation
DISA:MZN 0.2403
DIS:EBAY 0.4096
DIS:KO 0.4887
DIS:PEP 0.3926
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DIS:WMT 0.1979
DIS:BXP 0.5193
DIS:CAT 0.4919
AMZN:EBAY 0.3878
AMZN:KO 0.2563
AMZN:PEP 0.2965
AMZN:WMT 0.1796
AMZN:BXP 0.1717
AMZN:CAT 0.2474
EBAY:KO 0.1810
EBAY:PEP 0.1998
EBAY:WMT 0.0529
EBAY:BXP 0.4248
EBAY:CAT 0.4135
KO:PEP 0.6920
KO:WMT 0.3546
KO:BXP 0.3102
KO:CAT 0.2516
PEP:WMT 0.4352
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PEP:BXP 0.3633
PEP:CAT 0.2034
WMT:BXP 0.1329
WMT:CAT 0.0974
BXP:CAT 0.4452
portfolio 1, all the correlations for portfolio 2 are positive. However, compared to portfolio one,
the correlation values are quite lower.
Beta
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or sensitivity to general stock market increases and
decreases. The beta coefficient could be written as follows:
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For example, the following formula was used to determine the beta of The Johnson & Johnson
(J&J) in Excel:
=COVARIANCE.S(N6:N160,$V6:$V160)/VAR.S($V6:$V160)
All the stocks in portfolio 1 moved in the very same direction as the market, but in comparison to
the market, stocks of Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO) are more volatile than the others.
All the stocks in portfolio 2 moved in the very same direction as the market. In comparison to the
market, stocks of Walmart Inc. (WMT) & PepsiCo, Inc (PEP) were less volatile and stocks of The
Walt Disney Company (DIS), eBay Inc. (EBAY), Boston Properties, Inc. (BXP) & Caterpillar Inc.
(CAT) were more volatile.
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Variance-Covariance Matrix
The variance-covariance matrix is a square matrix that includes a network of all variance and
covariance values related to the portfolio's variables. The variances of the variables or stocks are
represented by the diagonal values of the matrix, and the covariances between all possible pairings
of stocks are represented by the off-diagonal values of the matrix.
So, the formula we used to compute the variance-covariance matrix for portfolio 1 was:
=MMULT(TRANSPOSE(N164:U319),N164:U319)
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WMT 0.1043 0.0950 0.0288 0.1289 0.1357 0.3604 0.0800 0.0617
BXP 0.4254 0.1511 0.4189 0.1711 0.1730 0.0800 0.8600 0.4408
CAT 0.4673 0.2759 0.4783 0.1534 0.1078 0.0617 0.4408 1.1491
UNH 0.075038
JNJ 0.414679
PFE 0.011932
NVO 0.149661
ABT 0.08037
ABC 0.152907
BIIB 0.03367
BIO 0.081743
SUM 1
DIS 0
AMZN 0.038011
EBAY 0.065324
KO 0.142994
PEP 0.387609
WMT 0.29663
BXP 0.021804
CAT 0.047627
SUM 1
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Portfolio Expected Return, Standard Deviation and Beta
We must recalculate the portfolio expected return, standard deviation, and beta using the optimal
weights after generating the optimal portfolio. The portfolio expected return, portfolio standard
deviation, and portfolio beta were computed by using formulas below.
Portfolio SD 0.488424
Portfolio SD 43.37%
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Final Comparison
portfolio 1
return 0.012893 0.010426
portfolio 1
variance 0.238558 0.188098
Portfolio Return is a measure of the gain or loss realized by an investor for an investment on a
portfolio containing a mixture of assets. When comparing the portfolio returns for the two optimal
portfolios, portfolio 1 has a return of 0.012893 and portfolio 2 has a return of 0.010426. We can
see that portfolio 1 has higher returns compared to portfolio 2, hence portfolio 1 has better
performance than portfolio 2.
Portfolio variance and portfolio standard deviation: Portfolio variance is a measure of the
dispersion of return of a portfolio and the standard deviation of a portfolio measures how much
the investment return differs from the mean of the probability distribution of investment. Portfolio
variance for portfolio 1 is 0.238558 while for portfolio 2 is 0.188098. Standard deviation for
portfolio1 standard deviation is 0.488424 while portfolio 2 standard deviation for 0.433703.
Portfolio variance and standard deviation for portfolio 2 is lower so it's less risky and safer.
Portfolio 1 has a higher variance and standard deviation hence it’s more risky.
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Portfolio Beta measures the relative sensitivity or volatility of a portfolio investment. A portfolio
with higher beta poses more risks but yields higher returns. Portfolio beta for portfolio 1 is
0.713215 while for portfolio 2 is 0.611490.
The results for both the portfolios were not very high, however, Portfolio 1 has a greater portfolio
beta compared to portfolio 2, hence it is riskier and will generate higher return.
So, in terms of overall performance portfolio 2 is safer and generates more return in comparison
to portfolio 1. For a risk averse investor portfolio 2 is a better choice than portfolio 1, while for a
risk lover portfolio 1 can be much more suitable.
Its rating has been used to measure borrowers' creditworthiness and even a firm ’s credit strength,
that determines the possibility of bankruptcy for all public limited companies. Total assets,
networking capital, sales, book value, cumulative retained earnings, and other factors are all
considered when determining the Z score or bankruptcy situation of the company.
Formula of Z Score:
Z = 1.2*Net Working Capital/Total Asset + 1.4*Accumulated Retained Earnings/Total
Asset+3.3*EBIT/Total Asset + 0.6*Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Debt +
1.0*Sales/Total Asset.
Z score of 1.81 to 2.99 for a public limited business is regarded to be in the gray area; a Z score of
less than 1.8 implies that the firm is on the verge of bankruptcy, while a score of more than 2.99
indicates that the company is in good financial standing and safe from bankruptcy.
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Portfolio-1 (Similar Industries)
Year Company name Z Score Prediction
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
2021 2.637044907 Grey
(UNH)
2021 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 2.559671102 Grey
2021 Pfizer Inc. (PFE) 2.46949605 Grey
2021 Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) 2.553280601 Grey
2021 Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 2.534543254 Grey
AmerisourceBergen Corporation Safe from
2021 3.927599129
(ABC) Bankruptcy
2021 Biogen Inc. (BIIB) 2.528210649 Grey
Safe from
2021 Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO) 4.323779953
Bankruptcy
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Conclusion
Two separate portfolios (containing of eight firms each) have been compared to the market in this
research. We worked with 16 firms, five of which were in the healthcare industry, while the rest
were from a variety of different industries. There are several examples of this, such as fact and
utility companies. In addition to the optimum portfolio analysis, stakeholders and connected
parties will get further clarity from the various studies of individual return, average return,
individual risk, market, and portfolio return and risk. We also generated Z-scores for each company
to see if they were strong enough to avoid bankruptcy or weak enough to go bankrupt. If you're
looking to understand the financial health of any of the firms we worked for, this report is a great
place to start. With this research, we intend to assist investors who are interested in the following
markets and get an understanding of how these firms' shares or investments differ from a broader
portfolio. This study is sure to provide a logical investor with an extra push before deciding to buy
in these two stocks.
Bibliography
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