G4-T3 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
G4-T3 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
G4-T3 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
As we said in the previous lesson, simple moving averages can be distorted by spikes.
We’ll start with an example.
Day 1: 1.3172
Day 2: 1.3231
Day 3: 1.3164
Day 4: 1.3186
Day 5: 1.3293
1
(1.3172 + 1.3231 + 1.3164 + 1.3186 + 1.3293) / 5 = 1.3209
Simple enough, right?
Well, what if there was a news report on Day 2 that causes the euro to drop across the
board.
This causes EUR/USD to plunge and close at 1.3000. Let’s see what effect this would
have on the 5-period SMA.
Day 1: 1.3172
Day 2: 1.3000
Day 3: 1.3164
Day 4: 1.3186
Day 5: 1.3293
The point we’re trying to make is that sometimes the simple moving average might
be too simple.
If only there was a way that you could filter out these spikes so that you wouldn’t get
the wrong idea.
2
It’s called the Exponential Moving Average!
Exponential moving averages (EMA) give more weight to the most recent periods.
In our example above, the EMA would put more weight on the prices of the most
recent days, which would be Days 3, 4, and 5.
This would mean that the spike on Day 2 would be of lesser value and wouldn’t have
as big an effect on the moving average as it would if we had calculated for a simple
moving average.
If you think about it, this makes a lot of sense because what this does is it puts more
emphasis on what traders are doing recently.
3
Notice how the red line (the 30 EMA) seems to be a closer price than the blue line (the
30 SMA).
This means that it more accurately represents recent price action. You can probably
guess why this happens.
It’s because the exponential moving average places more emphasis on what has been
happening lately.
When trading, it is far more important to see what traders are doing NOW rather than
what they were doing last week or last month.