Pepsico DCF Valuation Solution
Pepsico DCF Valuation Solution
Pepsico DCF Valuation Solution
Choose Discounting 1
Infosys 26.4
TCS 32.1
Wipro 20.3
26.266667
12,524 13,055
25.5% 27.0% 27.0%
(3,198) (3,525)
9,325 9,530
2,841 2,955
154 163
(3,635) (3,799)
8,686 8,849 9,026
1 1
3.25 4.25
2.75 3.75
0.87 0.83
0.85 0.81
7,552 7,312
WACC
169 4.5% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
LTGR
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
2.75%
3.00%
WACC
135 4.5% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75%
11.0x
12.0x
13.0x
Exit Multiple
14.0x
15.0x
16.0x
17.0x
18.0x
19.0x
of Projection Period
6.00% 6.25% 6.50%
PV 82.0 6 6 5 4 61
Calculate YTM ?
(82.0) 7 7 7 7 107
Calculation of beta
Particulars Equity beta D/(D+E)
(last three years)
Bottom-up
Coca Cola 0.90 20.2%
Kraft Heinz 0.80 38.2%
Mondelez 0.76 21.9%
Monster Beverage 1.02 0.0%
Kraft Heinz
27 June 2020 28,860 30.9
29 June 2019 31,131 31.0
30 June 2018 34,168 62.8
Mondelez
30 June 2020 20,183 51.1
30 June 2019 19,219 53.9
30 June 2018 19,711 41.0
Monster Beverage
30 June 2020 0 69.3
30 June 2019 0 63.8
30 June 2018 0 57.3
PepsiCo
13 June 2020 44978 129.0
15 June 2019 31185 132.7
16 June 2018 40593 107.6
Approach 1 Historical Return Long Term History
Approach 2 Based on Market Survey
Approach 3 Predictive Model
Equity
Shares O/S M.Cap Tax Rate
4,295 185,649 27%
4,276 209,098 27%
4,253 173,349 27%
5.2%
urce: Calculation
levered Beta Calculated in Step 3 with Target Cap Structure of your Target Co
Competitors List as per PepsiCo Filing Beta calculation
Comeptitor Name Geogra M.Cap (bn USD) Name of Companies Beta
1 The Coca-Cola Company phy
USA 210 PepsiCo 0.78
2 Campbell Soup Company USA 14.6 Coca Cola 0.90
3 Conagra Brands USA 18 Campbell 0.30
4 Kellogg Company USA 22.3 Conagra 0.62
5 Keurig Dr Pepper USA 39.4 Kellogg 0.48
6 The Kraft Heinz Company USA 37.5 Keurig Dr Pepper 0.24
7 Link Snacks, Inc Private Kraft Heinz 0.80
8 Mondelēz International USA 80.11 Mondelez 0.76
9 Monster Beverage Corporation USA 40.9 Monster Beverage 1.02
10 Nestlé S.A. Europe 301
11 Red Bull GmbH Europe Private
Source: 10K Dec 2019, Pg 9 as on 10th Oct 2020
Source: Investing.com
R sq
1 Regression Beta
2Bottomup Beta
Mandatory Debt
Repayment Date Interest Rate Average Rate
2020 Notes ### 2.70% 3.90% 3.30%
2021 Notes ### 2.40% 3.10% 2.75%
2022 Notes ### 2.70% 2.80% 2.75%
2023 Notes ### 2.80% 2.90% 2.85%
2024 Notes ### 3.40% 3.20% 3.30%
2025-2049 Notes ### 3.40% 3.70% 3.55%
2019-2026 Notes ### 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
New Notes March 2025 ### 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
New Notes March 2027 ### 2.63% 2.63% 2.63%
New Notes March 2030 ### 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
New Notes March 2040 ### 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
New Notes March 2050 ### 3.63% 3.63% 3.63%
New Notes March 2060 ### 3.88% 3.88% 3.88%
New Notes May 2023 ### 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
New Notes May 2030 ### 1.63% 1.63% 1.63%
New Notes May 2024 ### 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
New Notes May 2028 ### 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
Total Debt (Short Term and Long Term) 39,628 36,352 32,521 30,249
2,938
8,297
(1,619) 2% of Sales
9,616
(2,839) (20,410)
6,777
32,068 44,978
72 3,232
12 Months
Dec-31-2024
-
-
-
-
1,619
11.66
27,410
20,410
7,000
Interest Expenses
6 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
13-Jun-20 Dec-31-2020 Dec-31-2021 Dec-31-2022 Dec-31-2023 Dec-31-2024
38 - - - -
45 90 - - -
53 105 105 - -
18 36 36 36 -
30 61 61 61 61
336 671 671 671 671
0 - - - -
17 34 34 34 34
7 13 13 13 13
21 41 41 41 41
13 26 26 26 26
27 54 54 54 54
15 29 29 29 29
4 8 8 3 -
8 16 16 16 16
1 3 3 3 1
3 5 5 5 5
6 Monthly
PPE Turnover Ratio 3.25 3.25 3.10 1.47
6 Monthly
Amortisation Rate 5.1% 4.0% 5.4% 2.5%
6 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
31-Dec-20 31-Dec-21 31-Dec-22 31-Dec-23 31-Dec-24
19,187 20,303 19,840 20,651 21,506
2,349 2,100 3,479 3,635 3,799
21,536 22,403 23,319 24,285 25,306
1,232 2,564 2,668 2,779 2,896
20,303 19,840 20,651 21,506 22,410
Calculation
Yearly
3.20
11.4%
4.8%
PepsiCo Inc.
(in USD million except per Share Data)
Balance Sheet as of: Dec-31-2017 Dec-31-2018 Dec-31-2019 Jun-13-2020 Dec-31-2020 Dec-31-2021
ASSETS
Cash And Equivalents 10,610 8,721 5,509 8,927 7,825 8,733
Short Term Investments 8,900 272 229 196 196 196
Restricted Cash - 1,997 - -
Accounts and Notes Receivable 7,024 7,142 7,822 8,780 7,751 8,064
Inventories 2,947 3,128 3,338 4,314 3,234 3,430
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 1,546 633 747 972 1,039 1,081
Total Current Assets 31,027 21,893 17,645 23,189 20,045 21,504
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 17,240 17,589 19,305 19,187 20,303 19,840
Amortizable Intangible Assets, net 1,268 1,644 1,433 1,465 1,430 1,361
Goodwill 14,744 14,808 15,501 17,845 17,845 17,845
Other indefinite-lived intangible assets 12,570 14,181 14,610 17,530 17,530 17,530
Investments in Noncontrolled Affiliates 2,042 2,409 2,683 2,715 2,715 2,715
Deferred Income Taxes - 4,364 4,359 4,351 4,351 4,351
Other Assets 913 760 3,011 3,243 3,243 3,243
Total Assets 79,804 77,648 78,547 89,525 87,462 88,388
LIABILITIES
Short-term debt obligations 5,485 4,026 2,920 6,607 3276 3831
Accounts payable and other current liabilities 15,017 18,112 17,541 17,220 18,096 19,022
Total Current Liabilities 20,502 22,138 20,461 23,827 21,372 22,853
Common Stock 24 23 23 23 23 23
Capital in excess of par value 3,996 3,953 3,886 3,772 3,904 4,182
Retained Earnings 52,839 59,947 61,946 62,145 64,389 67,335
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (13,057) (15,119) (14,300) (15,778) (15,778) (15,778)
Repurchased common stock, in excess of par value (32,757) (34,286) (36,769) (37,671) (37,671) (37,671)
Total PepsiCo Common Shareholders’ Equity 11,045 14,518 14,786 12,491 14,868 18,092
Noncontrolling interests 92 84 82 96 130 182
Total Equity 11,137.00 14,602.00 14,868.00 12,587.00 14,998 18,274
Total Liabilities And Equity 79,804 77,648 78,547 89,525 87,462 88,388
Check - - - - - -
Source 10K Dec'18, Pg 83 10K Dec'19, Pg 89 10K Dec'19, Pg 89 10Q June'20, Pg 8
Accounts payable and other current liabilities 15,017 18,112 17,541 17,220 18,096 19,022
Less: Non Operating Items
Dividends payable 1161 1,329 1,351 No Break Up
SodaStream consideration payable 0 1997 58 Available
Current lease liabilities 0 - 442
Accounts payable and other current liabilities-Operating 13,856 14,786 15,690 14,354 15,230 16,156
Accounts payable and other current liabilities-Non Operating 1,161 3,326 1,851 2,866 2,866 2,866
Source 10K Dec'18, Pg 127 10K Dec'19, Pg 125 10K Dec'19, Pg 125 10Q June'20, Pg 6
Working Capital
Operating Current Assets
Accounts and Notes Receivable 7,024 7,142 7,822 8,780 7,751 8,064
Receivable Turnover Ratio 40 days 40 days 43 days 41 days 41 days
Inventories 2,947 3,128 3,338 4,314 3,234 3,430
Inventory Turnover Ratio 40 days 42 days 44 days 42 days 42 days
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 1,546 633 747 972 1,039 1,081
%age of Sales 2.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5%
23 23 23
4,472 4,773 5,087
70,383 73,539 76,786
(15,778) (15,778) (15,778)
(37,671) (37,671) (37,671)
21,429 24,887 28,448
237 293 351
21,666 25,180 28,798
88,609 90,548 92,063
- - -
Debt Raised - - -
Debt Repaid -5350 -3276 -3831
Net Cash Provided by/(Used for) Financing Activities (7,650) (8,556) (9,293)
Source: Calculations
12 Months 12 Months
31-Dec-23 31-Dec-24
8,868 9,124
2,841 2,955
301 314
(348) (367)
(148) (156)
(47) (49)
697 736
12,165 12,556
(3,635) (3,799)
(3,635) (3,799)
(5,656) (5,819)
2,875 2,938
- -
-2272 -2839
(7,928) (8,658)
603 99
7694.39875798 8297.08728921
8,297 8,396
PepsiCo Inc.
(in USD million except per Share Data)
Income Statement 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 6 Months 6 Months
31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19 13-Jun-20 31-Dec-20
Other pension and retiree medical benefits (expense)/income-Reported 233 298 (44) 161
Impact of Special Items 66 36 275 7
Other pension and retiree medical benefits (expense)/income-Normalised 299 334 231 168 220
Weighted Average Common Shares Outstanding-Diluted 1,438 1,425 1,407 1,395 1,395
Profitability ratios
Sales growth (%) 1.2% 1.8% 3.9%
Gross profit margins (%)-Normalised 54.7% 54.7% 55.3% 55.8%
EBITDA margins (%)-Normalised 20.2% 20.1% 19.4% 19.3%
EBIT margins (%)-Normalised 16.5% 16.4% 15.8% 15.6%
Net Income margins (%)-Normalised 11.9% 12.5% 11.6% 11.3%
Cost as % of sales
Cost of Sales (Other than Depreciation Exp) 42.0% 42.0% 41.5% 40.8% 40.8%
Selling, General & Admin Exp. (Excluding Amortisation Exp) 37.7% 37.9% 39.1% 39.9% 39.9%
Other pension and retiree medical benefits (expense)/income 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Share of noncontrolling interests (%age of Net Income) 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%
Calculation
Source 10K Dec'16, 10K Dec'19, Pg 84 and 51, 10Q June'20, Pg 11 and 35
Pg 4 10K Dec'18, Pg 60
6 Months 6 Months 6 Months 12 Months 12 Months
13-Jun-20 31-Dec-19 31-Dec-20 31-Dec-20 31-Dec-21
8,347 9,253 9,870 18,217 18,882
6.7%
6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 3.6%
Calculation