Sam Perdue - Secrets of EW & Fibo Ratios Revealed
Sam Perdue - Secrets of EW & Fibo Ratios Revealed
Sam Perdue - Secrets of EW & Fibo Ratios Revealed
By Sam Perdue
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Disclaimer
Disclaimer: Trading involves risk of loss. This document is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as trading recommendations. As such, any trading decision you make is your responsibility and you should consider advice from you broker or financial advisor before taking action. Neither Trading Synergy, Inc. or Sam Perdue can be held responsible for your financial losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
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Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................ 4 R.N. ELLIOTT CREATOR OF THE ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY ............................................... 5 THE ELLIOTT WAVE................................................................................................................. 6 THE BASICS OF THE ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY...................................................................... 7 WHY IS ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY USED BY TRADERS?........................................................ 8 UNDERSTANDING AND INTERPRETING THE WAVES ........................................................... 8 THE HISTORY OF FIBONACCI RATIOS ................................................................................... 9 WHAT'S THE HISTORY OF THIS MYSTERY? .......................................................................... 9 SIGNIFICANCE OF FIBONACCI RATIO IN NATURE................................................................ 9 FIBONACCI RATIOS ................................................................................................................10 USING FIBONACCI RATIOS IN THE STOCK MARKET...........................................................10 THE ELLIOTT WAVE AND FIBONACCI RATIOS.....................................................................11 ELLIOT WAVE FIBONACCI RATIOS TRADING SIGNALS ...................................................12 YOUR NEXT STEP ...................................................................................................................13 HOW DO I SIGN UP FOR THE FREE NEWSLETTER? ............................................................13
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Introduction
In this eBook, I am going to reveal some of Wall Street's most closely guarded secrets. Some people have paid thousands of dollars and in some cases tens of thousands of dollars for this information. And, it is also used in trading software which can cost a trader thousands more. Since this information cost so much to acquire, you may be asking yourself why I'm willing to give it away for free. Well, the answer is quite simple. You see, I have traded these markets long enough to know that no one person or group people can hold enough influence over these markets for extended periods time without going belly up. If you don't believe it, look up the name Nick Leeson on the Internet. Nick Leeson was a trader who tried to force the markets to move in a direction that would make him a lot of money. I won't go into a lot of detail here, but his story can be found in the book "Rogue Trader. In the end, he managed to bankrupt Barings Bank. And, while this may seem shocking, traders still occasionally make headlines that tell similar stories. It wasn't that long ago that the French trader lost billions trading the Forex markets. Obviously traders that approach the markets with this type of mentality do not recognize the fact that trying to move the markets in this way is much like trying to influence the tides by spitting in the ocean. It just doesn't work. You may also be asking yourself which markets benefit best from the secrets found in this report. After all, there are many different markets such as stocks, commodities, futures and Forex. So, in which of these markets would the secrets perform best? I can appreciate this type of question. With so many different trading systems (and now trading robots as they're called) on the market today, it seems that a trading method has to be tailored to a particular market in order to be effective. What many traders don't realize is that many of these systems are based on linear algebraic equations and logic. In some cases, the input parameters for many of these systems have been optimized to show fantastic historical results which find their way on websites to woo new customers. However, many traders who purchase such systems find that they do not hold up in real-time trading. I think that there are a host of reasons for why this happens. Perhaps, the biggest reason that these types of systems do not hold up in real-time trading is that they are predicated on an assumption that what has happened in the past will happen in the future. This is almost never the case. So if the system is not the answer, what is? In a word, people. People are the common element in all markets. Regardless of whether or not they are exchanging goods for services or money, it is extremely difficult to have a market without the involvement of human beings. So, wouldn't it make sense to predicate your trading decisions on the behavior of the people in the markets? After all, it is the behavior of the people in the markets which move prices higher or lower. So, in getting back to the original question, the secrets that I have to share with you can be applied to virtually any market that has good liquidity. By this, I mean a market which has many buyers and sellers making it easy for you to enter and exit your positions. This would include stocks, futures, Forex and commodities.
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In the pages that follow, I am going to give some brief detail behind the history of each man before I talk about his contribution to trading. In doing so, I hope that you will understand the natural evolution of these secrets and realize why they are as applicable now as they were so many years ago.
movements and the psychology behind them. His theory has been proven right in practice, time and again! In November 1934, Elliot presented his theory to Charles J. Collins, a reputed member of the financial community. Apart from exchanging telegrams, nothing much happened between the two until 1935 the year in which the Dow index was in a bear grip and was falling to pieces. Everyone was bearish and it seemed like the end of the financial world. On 13 March 1935, when the Dow had closed at about 27 points, Collins received a telegram from Elliot that said the market had made its final bottom. Elliot was proven right, as the Dow began climbing up relentlessly thereafter. Collins, impressed by Elliots expertise, agreed to collaborate with him on a book The Wave principle, which was published in 1938. It was a path-breaking, bestselling book that awed the financial world. In the same year, Elliot moved into a hotel in Brooklyn, which was a stones throw away from Manhattans financial hub. In 1939, Elliot was contracted by the magazine Financial World to write a series of articles around his Wave theory. These articles further cemented Elliots rocksolid reputation with investors and fund managers. By early 1940, Elliot had firmly established his theory that human emotions and actions were based on a natural progression method. He reconciled human behavior with the golden ratio, also known as the Fibonacci ratio. Elliot passed away in 1948, but his brilliant formulation The Wave principle or The Elliot wave Theory continues to produce amazingly accurate results till this day, rewarding the faithful in the process.
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The dominant trend waves are labeled as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, while the reactive phase waves are labeled as A, B, C. Of the 5 waves within the dominant trend, three moving in the direction of the trend (1, 3, 5) are referred to as impulse or motive waves and two moving against the trend (2, 4) as corrective waves. Similarly, the corrective phase is comprised of one impulse wave (B) and two corrective waves (A, C). Each of these waves is further subdivided into the 5-3 wave pattern, the dominant ones with 5 waves and the corrective ones with 3 waves, as shown in Figure 1, and the pattern keeps repeating itself on an ever-smaller scale. For example, in the first subdivision this results in a total of 5 smaller waves in each of the impulse waves (1, 3, 5, A, C) and 3 smaller waves in each of the reactive waves (2, 4, B), as depicted by the middle curve. When each of these smaller waves is further subdivided into 5-3 wave patterns, the impulse waves will consist of 21 subwaves and the reactive waves 13 sub-waves.
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continues. But this time the downtrend being the main trend is comprised of 5 waves, and the upward corrective phase is comprised of 3 waves. Now, lets turn our attention to the second person whose discovery so many traders hold in high regard
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fruitlets of a pineapple, the shells of snails, arrangement of leaves on a stem, or even the human body they all manifest Fibonacci numbers in some form or the other. Finally, even the financial markets have not been able to escape the magic of Fibonacci ratios. More often than not, trend reversals are found to occur at Fibonacci ratios. No one knows if the appearance of Fibonacci ratios in so many natural phenomena is due to some divine design, or things just follow an optimal design that is dictated by aesthetic appeal as well as functional efficiency.
Fibonacci Ratios
Leonardo Fibonacci, a 13th century accountant-turned-mathematician, made a startling mathematical discovery. He found that the sequence of numbers where every new number in the sequence is obtained by adding the previous number to its predecessor (i.e., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ) has very fascinating and unique properties that are revealed in many natural phenomena too. This sequence of infinite numbers is now referred to as Fibonacci sequence. What is so interesting about Fibonacci sequence? Fibonacci discovered that as the Fibonacci sequence progresses, the ratio of each number to its immediate follower approaches a constant value of 0.618 (also called the Golden ratio): for example, 34 55 = 0.618; 55 89 = 0.618; 89 144 = 0.618, and so on. Surprisingly, the ratio of each number to its predecessor (e.g., 55/34, 89/55, 144/89, etc.) approaches a constant value of 1.618 as the sequence progresses. Not just that, the ratio of alternate terms in the sequence approaches a constant value of 1 0.618 = 0.382! Similarly, the ratio of each number to a number that is three places ahead approaches 0.236 (e.g., 8/34, 13/55, 21/89, 34/144, etc.) The ratios 1.618, 0.618, 0.382, 0.236, etc., describing the relationship between various terms of the Fibonacci sequence are referred to as the Fibonacci ratios. Now well discuss why and how these ratios are used in technical analysis of the stock market. Importance of Fibonacci ratios in trading As mentioned earlier, Fibonacci ratios appear in Nature everywhere, and financial markets are no exception. It has been observed that markets often tend to reverse at levels defined by Fibonacci ratios. Even support and resistance levels seem to have a higher probability of forming at Fibonacci ratios (e.g., 161.8%, 61.8%, 38.2%, 23.6%, etc.). For example, if the stock market rallies 100 points, it is usually found to correct at 61.8% level. Knowing these probabilities can help a trader predict market trends.
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1. 2. 3.
4.
A stocks price chart is observed, say for a period of 6 months, and the highest price and the lowest price level that the stock has hit are marked on its price chart. The distance between the lowest point and the highest point is calculated. This distance is divided into four parts in the ratios of 0.618, 0.50, 0.382 and 0.236. Horizontal lines are drawn to represent the figures derived. The 0.50 is not a Fibonacci number, but is used because it has been observed that an assets price continues to move in a linear direction once it completes a 50% retracement. These horizontal lines are used to identify probable support and resistance levels. They represent critical points from where a stocks or an assets price can deviate and reverse from their current direction.
In most of the cases, these lines work like magic. You also dont have to do the calculations yourself, as your trading software (such as IntrepidTrader) will take care of it. It is also not clear why the Fibonacci ratio works so efficiently. Maybe it does because it is the golden ratio that is connected to human psychology right from times immemorial.
place terms 8/34, 13/55, 21/89, 34/144, etc., all approach a constant value of 0.236, and so on. These ratios 1.618, 0.618, 0.382, 0.236, etc., are referred to as Fibonacci ratios. It has been noticed for years that market reversals coincide with the Fibonacci ratio 0.618. For example, if the Dow crashes by 200 points, it will more often than not recover 61.8% of the fall in a relief rally that follows the crash. Then it will begin falling again. Other ratios too are important and have different significance. Why these ratios work, no one knows. Is it because the Fibonacci ratio is a predetermined cosmic theory? Is it because most traders are following the Fibonacci ratio and are acting according to its calculations? Well, no one knows, but the fact remains the Fibonacci ratios work.
2.
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Before you attempt to analyze the market using the ElliotFibonacci theories, you need to pick up some proficiency in technical analysis. So, practice well and be patient once your analysis begins predicting trends correctly, only then should you venture into a trade.
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