Top 10 Picks For 2023

14th
December, 2022
21st December, 2022
TOP 10 PICKS FOR 2023

FROM SMC RESEARCH DESK
T he year 2022 will be remembered as a historic year as the year gone by saw an ugly part of inflation…..pushing interest rates higher and geopolitical uncertainties led by the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine
war, headwinds in China both on account of the country’s zero covid-tolerance policy and political tension with Taiwan. Indeed the world is going through a challenging period. Besides pandemic-
induced global supply chain challenges, the Ukraine Russia war saga continued to give shocks across the globe creating inflationary pressures, driving up prices of energy—crude oil, coal and gas — and
food. The US Federal Reserve, thereafter, embarked on a rate-hike cycle and the major other central banks followed the suit. Then there came the end of “Era of lower interest rates”. And this, in turn, has now
fanned fear of a global recession. The S&P 500 is down 20% year-to-date, and with bonds simultaneously experiencing their worst year in history.
India too hasn’t remained insulated from above mentioned developments. However, the silver lining has been the domestic markets. The Indian market has been a strong outperformer thanks to "stronger
domestic fundamentals," but valuations have turned expensive compared to global peers. Actually, the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor is working well for the Indian economy as globally most countries are
in trouble. At this juncture, it is almost expected that inflation will moderate going forward, be it across the globe or India as further declines in commodity prices and base effects will drag down energy and food
inflation. The meaning thereby is that monetary actions of the central banks across the globe will be less hawkish. When central banks will be comfortable with inflation numbers, we may see a reversal trend in
the interest rate cycle that is possibly in the later part of the year 2023. Meanwhile, economic activity has held up well and is expected to be resilient, supported by domestic demand. There has been a noticeable
increase in consumer and business confidence, which is encouraging for the prospects for future growth. India’s greatest strength lies in its domestic consumption, supported by a young and large working
population with higher disposable incomes and boosting business confidence. At present, the themes on which India looks attractive are revival of consumption and investment. Consumer sentiment is likely to
improve further in 2023 and Investors should invest in companies with good outlook, reasonable valuations and sound management. As the capacity utilization is at 75% and is now reaching a threshold and we
may see more investment coming in. Besides Corporate India’s balance sheet is fairly strong and it is deleveraged by more than 12% compared to the subprime crisis. Even banks’ balance sheets are healthy and
credit growth has also witnessed uptick. Thus, companies which are engaged in industrial engineering and capital goods will be beneficiary of this capex revival. The Indian automobile industry is setting out on
a journey with hopes for a sustained growth momentum on the back of rising disposable income; a young, more affluent, and aspirational consumer class further embracing clean technology amid rising interest
rates and cost increases due to new emission and safety norms. FMCG sector is expected to do well on the back of fall in commodity prices and improving demand.
As we know that Global economy is going through a tough phase and it will have consequences on global cyclicals. So, one need to be a little bit cautious. However, economic and market indicators suggest that
India’s outperformance may continue in the New Year too. Since valuations are on the higher side, investors should take buying opportunity in high-quality stocks that are least impacted by the global crisis.
Companies with stronger fundamentals and less cyclicity will continue to outperform. In this year end report, some stocks are recommended with long term prospective. Investors should continue with the
staggered buying approach and add a dash of spice to their portfolio.
Happy Investing
TOP PICKS - 2023
SR.NO COMPANY NAME SECTOR CLOSE PRICE* TARGET (RS.) UPSIDE POTENTIAL (%)
1 ICICI Bank Banks 909.45 1074 18
2 St Bk of India Banks 604.60 684 13
3 ITC FMCG 340.05 403 19
4 Larsen & Toubro Capital Goods 2163.05 2520 17
5 Siemens Capital Goods 2956.10 3418 16
6 Exide Inds. Auto Ancillaries 190.20 226 19
7 V-Guard Industri Consumer Durables 272.75 337 24
8 Finolex Cables Capital Goods 558.80 654 17
9 Jyothy Labs FMCG 205.45 238 16
10 H.G. Infra Engg. Infrastructure 587.30 712 21
*CMP as on 22nd December, 2021
*CMP as on 20th December, 2022 2
ICICI BANK LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 909.45 Target: Rs. 1075 Upside Potential: 18% Recommendation: Buy
VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

Face Value (Rs.) 2.00 l The business banking portfolio grew by 43% yoy and 11% sequentially end September 2022. The SME business, comprising borrowers with a
52 Week High/Low 958.00/642.00 turnover of less than Rs 250 crore, grew by 27% yoy and 6% sequentially end September 2022.
l Total advances increased by 23% yoy and 5% sequentially to Rs 938563 crore end September 2022. The domestic advances grew by 24% yoy and
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 634422.63
6% sequentially end September 2022. The retail loan portfolio grew by 25% yoy and 6% sequentially,
EPS (Rs.) 42.50
l The Bank has posted healthy 26% increase in Net Interest Income (NII) at Rs 14787 crore for the quarter ended September 2022. Total period-
P/E Ratio (times) 21.40 end deposits increased 12% yoy to Rs 1090008 crore end September 2022. Average CASA deposits increased 16% yoy in Q2FY2023. Period-end
P/B Ratio (times) 3.31 term deposits increased by 11% yoy to Rs 582168 crore t September 30, 2022.
l Net Interest Margin (NIM) of the bank notched up on sequential basis to 4.31% in Q2FY2023, while improved from 4% in the corresponding
Stock Exchange BSE
quarter last year. The higher CASA ratio and credit-to-deposit ratio has supported NIMs of the bank.
l Its gross non-performing asset (NPA) ratio decreased to 3.19% cent as of September 30, 2022, from 4.82 per cent registered in the same
quarter last year. The net NPA ratio declined to 0.61% end September 2022 from 0.70% end June 2022 and 0.99% end September 2021.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding l The provisioning coverage ratio on NPAs was 80.60% end September 2022. The total provisions (excluding provision for tax) declined by 39%
yoy to Rs 1644 crore in Q2FY2023 from Rs 2714 crore in Q2FY2022. Provisions for Q2FY2023 include contingency provision of Rs 1500 crore
Foreign 54.69
made on a prudent basis. In addition, the Bank held contingency provisions of Rs 10000 crore end September 2022.
Institutions 37.19
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 1.03

RISK
Public & Others 7.09 l Unidentified Asset Slippages.
l Regulatory Provisioning on assets
P/B CHART VALUATION

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE (Rs.in Cr.)
1200.00
The bank continues to operate within strategic framework and strengthen
1000.00
ACTUAL FORECAST
franchise, enhance delivery and servicing capabilities and expand
800.00 FY Mar-22 FY Mar-23 FY Mar-24
technology and digital offerings. The bank is well capitalized with total
600.00 NII 47,466.10 58,275.97 67,626.82
400.00
capital adequacy ratio of 18.27% as on September 30, 2022 was 18.27%
EBIT 30,608.89 48,961.38 57,142.57
200.00 compared to the minimum regulatory requirements of 11.70%. This would
0.00 help the bank to benefit from the rising credit growth in the country. The PRE-TAX PROFIT 30,608.89 40,733.93 46,458.79
4-Jul-19
9-Jan-20
5-Sep-19
14-Jul-20
15-Jul-21
20-Jul-22
25-Jun-18
11-Jan-21
17-Jan-22
20-Dec-17
24-Aug-18
31-Dec-18
10-Sep-20
16-Sep-21
21-Sep-22
21-Feb-18
27-Feb-19
8-Nov-19
9-Mar-20
25-Apr-18
29-Oct-18
10-Nov-20
17-Nov-21
23-Nov-22
6-May-19
12-Mar-21
21-Mar-22
14-May-20
18-May-21
23-May-22
focus continues on growing loan portfolio in a granular manner. Besides, NET INCOME 23,339.49 30,642.58 35,021.44
the bank continues to enhance digital offerings and platforms to onboard
1.80 2.45 3.10 3.75 Close Price
EPS 32.98 44.11 50.34
new customers in a seamless manner and provide them end-to-end digital
BVPS 245.35 280.90 324.42
journeys and personalised solutions. Thus, it is expected that the stock
will see a price target of Rs.1075 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current RoE 14.79% 16.74% 16.50%
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
P/BV of 3.31x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.324.42.
3
STATE BANK OF INDIA

Face Value (Rs.) 1.00 l The Business of the bank rose at steady pace of 14% yoy to Rs 72,25,326 crore at end September 2022. Deposits grew 10% yoy to Rs 4190255
52 Week High/Low 629.65/425.00 crore in the quarter under review. Domestic deposits grew 9% yoy to Rs 4028012 crore of which CASA deposits grew 5% yoy to Rs 1797751 crore.
l Net Interest Income (NII) increased by 12.83% YoY to Rs 35,183 crore during the quarter. Net Interest Margin (domestic) was at 3.55% in Q2 FY23
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 539582.00
as against 3.50% in Q2 FY22.
EPS (Rs.) 46.14
l Provisions and contingencies (other than tax) were steeply higher to Rs 3,038.67 crore in Q2 FY23 from Rs 188.75 crore posted in Q2 FY22.
P/E Ratio (times) 13.10 Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) improved by 788 bps YoY at 77.93%.
P/B Ratio (times) 1.74 l The bank has improved the asset quality on sequential as well as year-on-year basis in Q2FY2023. The ratio of gross NPAs to gross advances
Stock Exchange BSE stood at 3.52% as on 30 September 2022 as against 3.91% as on 30 June 2022 and 4.90% as on 30 September 2021. The ratio of net NPAs to net
advances stood at 0.80% as on 30 September 2022 as against 1% as on 30 June 2022 and 1.52% as on 30 September 2021.
l Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) as at the end of Q2 FY23 stood at 13.51%. Slippage ratio for Q2 FY23 was at 0.33%, improved by 33 bps YoY while
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN credit cost improved by 15 bps YoY to 0.28%.
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding l The management of the bank plans to double its home loan portfolio in the next five years. To achieve its target of doubling the home loan
Foreign 11.16 book, the bank is strengthening its underwriting capability to improve delivery. Also, a new retail loan management system is being put in
place that will reduce the time taken for the turnaround of loans.
Institutions 25.13

RISK
Promoters 56.92
l Asset Slippages
Public & Others 6.22
l Regulatory Provisioning on assets
P/B CHART VALUATION

700.00
600.00
The Banks’s operating metrics continue to see improvement with healthy ACTUAL FORECAST
500.00 loan growth, margin improvement and lower slippages in turn lower core
FY Mar-22 FY Mar-23 FY Mar-24
400.00
credit cost should drive further improvement in return ratio. The credit
300.00
NII 1,33,778.35 1,41,675.28 1,60,327.50
200.00
growth of the bank has accelerated, mainly on higher retail/corporate
EBIT 75,292.37 80,684.14 95,646.58
100.00 growth. High mix of floating loans, which will benefit from loan re-
0.00
pricing, will continue to support the NII and overall earnings even as PRE-TAX PROFIT 57,023.24 61,902.18 73,093.02
4-Jul-19
9-Jan-20
5-Sep-19
14-Jul-20
15-Jul-21
20-Jul-22
25-Jun-18
11-Jan-21
17-Jan-22
20-Dec-17
24-Aug-18
31-Dec-18
10-Sep-20
16-Sep-21
21-Sep-22
21-Feb-18
27-Feb-19
8-Nov-19
9-Mar-20
25-Apr-18
29-Oct-18
10-Nov-20
17-Nov-21
23-Nov-22
6-May-19
12-Mar-21
21-Mar-22
14-May-20
18-May-21
23-May-22
deposit cost could see some increase. Bank has increased its credit growth NET INCOME 39,094.37 45,937.32 54,069.08
0.75 1.10 1.45 1.80 Close Price guidance to ~16% in FY23, as it gains confidence amid buoyant credit EPS 43.80 51.47 60.56
demand, not only in the retail segment but also from Corporate. Thus, it is
BVPS 313.84 342.29 393.36
expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.684 in 8 to 10 months’
time frame on current P/BVx of 1.74x and FY23 BVPS (Book Value Per RoE 0.84% 0.89% 0.92%
Share) of Rs.393.36.
4
ITC LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 1.00 l ITC is a diversified conglomerate with businesses spanning Fast Moving Consumer Goods, Hotels, Paperboards and Packaging, Agri Business and
52 Week High/Low 361.90/207.00 Information Technology. It is a market leader in the Indian Paperboard and Packaging industry.
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 422080.56 l The company inaugurated an export-oriented spices facility in Guntur, Andhra Pradesh. The mega facility will have processing lines for
turmeric, chilli, and blended spices, with an annual capacity of 20,400 metric tonne of spices. The processing plant is equipped to produce
EPS (Rs.) 13.68
over 15 organic spices and will boost ITC’s food exports.
P/E Ratio (times) 24.86
l The Company remains focused on rapidly scaling up the FMCG businesses anchored on strong growth platforms and a future-ready portfolio
P/B Ratio (times) 6.56 powered by purpose-led brands and supported by agile innovation leveraging the robust R&D platforms of ITC Life Sciences and Technology
Dividend Yield (%) 3.36 Centre (LSTC). In addition to fortifying its core portfolio, the Businesses continue to address adjacent growth opportunities by leveraging the
25+ powerful mother brands established over the years.
Stock Exchange BSE
l The stability in taxes on cigarettes has helped the business to continue to counter illicit trade and reinforce market standing by fortifying the
product portfolio through innovation, democratising premiumisation across segments and enhancing product availability backed by superior
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN on-ground execution.
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding l ITCMAARS, a crop-agnostic 'phygital' full stack AgriTech platform is being scaled up with 460+ FPOs (Farmers Producer Organizations) in 9
states encompassing about 180,000 farmers (registered till date). This platform provides farmers with AI/ML driven personalised and
Foreign 43.56
hyperlocal crop advisories, access to good quality inputs and market linkages as well as allied services like pre-approved loans.
Institutions 42.36
l In Q2FY-2022 the hotel business saw ARR and Occupancy levels ahead of pre-pandemic levels driven by Retail (packages), Leisure, Weddings
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 0.91 and MICE segments. During Q2FY23, the EBITDA margin stood at 29.0% (Vs. 20.4% in Q2 FY20); margin expansion driven by higher RevPAR,
Public & Others 13.17 operating leverage and structural cost interventions.
RISK
P/E CHART l Increase in input cost
500.00 l Economic slowdown

450.00
ACTUAL FORECAST
400.00
350.00
300.00
VALUATION FY Mar-22 FY Mar-23 FY Mar-24
250.00 REVENUE 56,341.20 68,747.47 74,126.14
200.00 The company has strong balance sheet with zero net debt. Stability in
150.00
100.00 taxes, deterrent actions by enforcement agencies, enables continued EBITDA 18,867.38 23,573.33 26,083.26
50.00
0.00 cigarette volume recovery from illicit trade. Recent launches in the EBIT 17,227.45 24,468.70 26,746.73
2-Jun-20
5-Jan-22
9-Sep-21
5-Aug-19
5-Dec-19
28-Jul-20
13-Jul-21
15-Jun-18
10-Jun-19
31-Jan-20
15-Jan-21
20-Dec-17
22-Sep-20
30-Jun-22
10-Aug-18
12-Dec-18
7-Feb-19
29-Aug-22
19-Feb-18
8-Apr-19
7-Oct-19
9-Nov-21
4-Mar-22
19-Apr-18
12-Oct-18
18-Nov-20
27-Oct-22
30-Mar-20
16-Mar-21
5-May-22
18-May-21
cigarette business continue to gain traction indicates future growth NET INCOME 15,057.83 18,058.33 20,022.71
visibility. In the other FMCG segment, the strategic cost management,
13 20 27 34 Close Price EPS 12.22 14.65 16.22
premiumisation, supply chain agility, judicious pricing actions, fiscal
BVPS 49.83 52.70 55.61
incentives and digital is expected to achieve cost optimization. Thus, it is
expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.403 in 8 to 10 months’ RoE 24.82% 28.31% 29.88%
time frame on a current P/E of 24.86x and FY24 EPS of Rs.16.22. Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
5
LARSEN & TOUBRO LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 2.00 l Larsen & Toubro is an Indian multinational engaged in EPC Projects, Hi-Tech Manufacturing and Services. It operates in over 50 countries
worldwide. A strong, customer–focused approach and the constant quest for top-class quality has enabled L&T to attain and sustain leadership
52 Week High/Low 2210.50/1456.80
in its major lines of business for eight decades.
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 303987.28
l The consolidated order book of the group stood at Rs. 372,381 crore as on September 30, 2022, with international orders having a share of 28%.
EPS (Rs.) 68.36 During the quarter it reported 23% growth in order inflow on YoY. The management expects order prospects pipeline for the remaining six
P/E Ratio (times) 31.64 months of the current financial year is around Rs. 6.3 trillion, comprising of domestic prospects of around Rs.5 trillion and international
prospects of Rs.1.3 trillion. The broad breakup of the overall prospects pipeline is as follows: Infrastructure contributes to Rs.4.54 trillion,
P/B Ratio (times) 3.71
Hydrocarbon - Rs.1.13 trillion, Power - Rs.0.38 trillion and other businesses comprising of Heavy Engineering, Defense and Smart World &
Dividend Yield (%) 1.02 Communications the balance Rs.0.27 trillion.
Stock Exchange BSE l Post Q2FY23, the company received two significant orders from British Gas Exploration and Production India Limited and Oil & Natural Gas
Corporation. Its Hydrocarbon Business secured two significant orders from Vedanta Limited, Cairn Oil & Gas division. L&T Construction
secured mega order from ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India. The Buildings & Factories Business of L&T Construction has secured one large order
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN from the National High-Speed Rail Corporation Limited.
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding l According to the management, the company's Projects and Hi-Tech Manufacturing businesses are rightly position to leverage the India and
Middle East Capex opportunity. It continues to retain its guidance of 12% to 15% growth in the group order inflows and revenue with a stronger
Foreign 24.22
bias towards the upper end of the band.
Institutions 40.10
l The Company has signed an agreement to divest its 51% stake in L&T Infrastructure Development Projects Limited (L&T IDPL). This is in line
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 1.07 with L&T’s strategy of reducing its exposure to the non-core asset heavy developmental projects portfolio. The transition would release
growth capital for the L&T Group. Gross proceeds to L&T and CPP investments from the sale would be approximately Rs. 27,234 million before
closing adjustments and other terms of the transaction.
RISK
P/E CHART
4000.00
l Economic Slowdown FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE (Rs.in Cr.)
3500.00 l High commodity prices ACTUAL FORECAST
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
VALUATION REVENUE 1,56,521.23 1,80,970.97 2,05,075.94
1500.00
The company has robust business portfolio including some of the newer
1000.00 EBITDA 24,169.84 21,649.20 25,401.69
500.00 businesses. Its focus on cash generation distribution and eye on capital
0.00 EBIT 21,221.89 18,634.48 22,369.68
employed and finally the divestment of concessions and other non-core
4-Jul-19
9-Jan-20
5-Sep-19
14-Jul-20
15-Jul-21
20-Jul-22
25-Jun-18
11-Jan-21
17-Jan-22
20-Dec-17
10-Sep-20
16-Sep-21
21-Sep-22
24-Aug-18
31-Dec-18
21-Feb-18
27-Feb-19
8-Nov-19
9-Mar-20
25-Apr-18
29-Oct-18
10-Nov-20
17-Nov-21
23-Nov-22
6-May-19
12-Mar-21
21-Mar-22
14-May-20
18-May-21
23-May-22
assets will lead to a better ROEs. Record order book and strong tendering NET INCOME 8,669.33 10,993.02 13,562.07
11 19 26 34 Close Price momentum on the back of public CAPEX spends comprising of Centre, EPS 61.65 78.81 96.94
States and PSUs and improvement in private capex auger well for the
BVPS 586.51 641.40 710.92
company going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a
price target of Rs.2520 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/Ex of 26x RoE 10.83% 12.81% 14.36%
and FY24 EPS of Rs.96.94. Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
6
SIEMENS LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 2.00 l Siemens Limited is a technology company focused on industry, infrastructure, transport as well as transmission and generation of electrical
52 Week High/Low 3136.80/2150.75 power. From more resource-efficient factories, resilient supply chains, and smarter buildings and grids, to cleaner and more comfortable
transportation, the company creates technology with purpose adding real value for customers. It is the flagship listed company of Siemens AG
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 105272.71
in India.
EPS (Rs.) 35.09
l The Company has set up a state-of-the-art factory in Aurangabad to address the increasing demand in India and across the world. The factory
P/E Ratio (times) 84.24 will deliver over 200 bogies towards an export order. The factory will address the increasing demand for bogies not only in India but also
P/B Ratio (times) 9.08 globally. It manufactures high-performance bogies for passenger, coaches, locomotives, electric multiple units, trams and metros.
Dividend Yield (%) 0.34 l The company emerged as the lowest bidder (L1) for the 9000 HP Electric Locomotives project in Dahod, Gujarat, India by Indian Railways.
The project’s estimated cost is around Rs 20,000 crore. This project has increased the company’s order book by 116 per cent. The total order
Stock Exchange BSE
backlog till date is Rs 17,183 crore and total order backlog after this order is Rs 37,138 crore.
l It launched Siemens Xcelerator, an evolving digital business ecosystem, in India, which aimed at accelerating digital transformation and value
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN creation for customers of all sizes in industry, buildings, grids and mobility. With over 6,000 software engineers at its development centers,
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding the company would accelerate the digital transformation efforts of its customers worldwide.
Foreign 6.56 l In the last five years the company has invested €1 billion (Approx. Rs.87.66 billion) on capex to become future ready and benefit from multiple
Institutions 9.53 transformations in India, like, urbanisation, development of smart cities, energy transformation from coal to renewables and electric
vehicles ecosystem.
l During the quarter ended September 2022, the consolidated net sales (including other operating income) grew by 11.58% to Rs 4657.1 crore.
Promoters 75.00
Operating profit margin has jumped from 10.66% to 11.08%, leading to 15.96% rise in operating profit to Rs 515.90 crore. Net profit
Public & Others 7.99 attributable to owners of the company increased 20.71% to Rs 381.70 crore.
RISK
P/B CHART
4000.00
3500.00
l High commodity prices ACTUAL FORECAST
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
VALUATION REVENUE 16,562.10 18,960.74 22,101.93
1000.00
The company is firmly positioned to benefit from the India growth story in EBITDA 1,757.30 2,347.46 2,836.09
500.00
0.00 the long term. Strong order book indicates steady revenue growth in the EBIT 1,440.20 2,050.35 2,488.41
4-Jul-19
9-Jan-20
5-Sep-19
14-Jul-20
15-Jul-21
20-Jul-22
25-Jun-18
11-Jan-21
17-Jan-22
20-Dec-17
10-Sep-20
16-Sep-21
21-Sep-22
24-Aug-18
31-Dec-18
21-Feb-18
27-Feb-19
8-Nov-19
9-Mar-20
25-Apr-18
29-Oct-18
10-Nov-20
17-Nov-21
23-Nov-22
6-May-19
12-Mar-21
21-Mar-22
14-May-20
18-May-21
23-May-22
near term. The company continue to see an increased pace of tendering NET INCOME 1,542.90 1,754.05 2,114.27
for Capex by both public and private sectors with increasing interest in
3.90 6.00 8.10 10.20 Close Price EPS 43.33 48.85 59.43
digital and sustainability solutions. Launch of Siemens Xcelerator would
BVPS 326.13 357.68 395.60
help drive the future growth of the company. Thus, it is expected that the
stock will see a price target of Rs.3418 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on RoE 13.00% 14.43% 15.44%
one year average P/BVx of 8.64x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.395.60. Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
7
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 1.00 l The company designs, manufactures, markets, and sells the widest range of lead acid storage batteries in the world from 2.5Ah to 20,200Ah
capacity, to cover the broadest spectrum of applications. The batteries are manufactured for automotive, power, telecom, infrastructure
52 Week High/Low 194.20/130.30
projects, computer industries, as well as railways, mining, and defence sectors.
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 16167.00
l During the quarter ended Q2FY23, the demand scenario continues to remain upbeat, both in the replacement market and with the OEMs,
EPS (Rs.) 10.96
thereby driving volumes. Improvement in semiconductor supply situation led to demand recovery from OEMs. The Industrial vertical also
P/E Ratio (times) 17.35 continued to witness strong recovery compared to previous year, especially in the I-UPS, solar and power & project segments. Pick-up in
P/B Ratio (times) 1.47 commercial and business activity is contributing to overall buoyancy in the market.
Dividend Yield (%) 1.05 l During the quarter ended Q2FY23, the high input costs continue to impact profits on a YoY basis. However, EBITDA margin increased to 11.1% in
Q2FY23 as compared to 9.9% in Q1FY23. Judicious pricing strategies along with sequential respite in input cost inflation have supported
Stock Exchange BSE
margins. The company expects the margins improve as the raw material price stabilise in three to six months. The company expects to
generate high cashflows and a comfortable balance sheet with zero debt.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN l The company has entered into technical collaboration with SVOLT Energy Solutions Co. Ltd (SVOLT), for lithium-ion cell manufacturing. It has
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding formed wholly owned subsidiary - Exide Energy Solutions Ltd (EESL) to set up multigigawatt hour lithium ion cell making facility in Karnataka.
The project will be completed in two phase with a total outlay of Rs. 6000 crore. First phase of 6Gwh is expected to become operational by the
Foreign 11.38
end of 2024. It would require an investment fo Rs. 2400 crore and the balance would be used in the phase two. At fully capacity the plant shall
Institutions 17.82 have 12-Gwh (Gigawatt hour) capacity. It would take 8-10 years to reach the peak capacity. At peak capacity management expect the facility
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 5.36 would generate revenue of Rs 10,000-12,000 crore.
Promoters 46.00 l According to the management, the company would continue to look for capex in the core lead acid business. It expects to incur around Rs.
400- Rs. 500 crores per year in this business.
RISK
P/B CHART l Increase in Raw material price
400.00 l Economic slowdown
350.00 ACTUAL FORECAST
300.00
250.00 VALUATION FY Mar-22 FY Mar-23 FY Mar-24

200.00 REVENUE 12,381.69 14,722.41 15,976.16
150.00 The company has strong balance sheet with zero net debt. The company is
100.00
rapidly gaining market share in both in unorganized players and organized EBITDA 1,395.59 1,641.48 1,941.36
50.00
0.00 players along with expansion into li-ion space indicating future growth EBIT 982.98 1,201.32 1,465.54
24-Dec-19
29-Jan-20
31-Jul-20
4-Sep-20
2-Aug-22
9-Sep-22
26-Jun-20
22-Dec-20
28-Jan-21
2-Aug-21
7-Sep-21
25-Jun-21
27-Dec-21
28-Jun-22
1-Feb-22
19-Nov-19
4-Mar-20
15-Apr-20
14-Nov-20
4-Mar-21
9-Mar-22
12-Oct-20
13-Apr-21
22-Nov-21
13-Oct-21
18-Apr-22
23-Nov-22
17-Oct-22
21-May-20
21-May-21
24-May-22
visibility. Sequentially the margin has improved due to price increase and NET INCOME 4,683.53 945.72 1,117.94
management expects the margins to improve as raw material price
1.20 1.70 2.20 2.70 Close Price
EPS 55.10 11.12 13.06
stabilizes in three to six months. Thus, it is expected that the stock will
see a price target of Rs. 226 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/BVx BVPS 124.77 123.65 132.96
of 1.70x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.132.96. RoE 7.78% 8.92% 9.86%

8
V-GUARD INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 1.00 l V-Guard Industries is a consumer electrical and electronics major based in Kochi. The company has established a strong brand name and
52 Week High/Low 274.90/181.90 aggressively diversified into a multi-product company with a portfolio including voltage stabilizers, inverter & inverter batteries, electric
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 11776.59 water heaters, solar water heaters, pumps & motors, domestic switchgears, wires & cables, fans, modular switches, air coolers and kitchen
appliances.
EPS (Rs.) 5.56
P/E Ratio (times) 49.06 l The company is setting up two factories to manufacture inverters and batteries. Management expects that in the next 18 months, they should
come online and that will improve the competitiveness for VGuard products. Currently, it is having a 3% market share of a Rs. 12,000 crore
market in Inverters and which the management expects improve going forward.
Dividend Yield (%) 0.48
l During the quarter Q2 FY23, South and Non-South markets grew by 2.6% and 17.8% YoY respectively. With continued strong growth from Non-
Stock Exchange BSE
South markets, they contributed 42.7% of total revenue in Q2 FY23, higher than 39.4% in Q2 FY22. With consistently increasing contribution
from Non-South markets, we are gaining scale across all regions of the country.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN l The company has been a dominant player in the South market, though the last ten years have also seen the Company expanding rapidly in the
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding non-South geographies with their contribution increasing from 5% of total revenues in FY08 to around 42% of total revenues in Fy22.
Foreign 13.43
l Recently, V-Guard Inds inks pact to acquire 100% stake in Sunflame Enterprises. Sun flame Enterprises is one of the leading players in the
Institutions 18.05 kitchen appliances space in India. According to the management, the acquisition is a key milestone in V-Guard's journey to have deeper
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 0.13 engagement with its consumers by providing thoughtful products and experiences. Sunflame is an iconic brand etched in the memories of
Indian households and is expected to provide significant thrust to V-Guard's plans to become a leading Indian Kitchen Appliances player.
Promoters 55.86

RISK
l Increase in Commodity prices
P/B CHART
600.00

400.00
VALUATION FY Mar-22 FY Mar-23 FY Mar-24
300.00 REVENUE 3,474.66 4,019.48 4,600.79
200.00 The strong balance sheet along with strong recall among customers in the
EBITDA 332.81 365.47 465.91
100.00
south and faster business growth in Non-South markets bodes well for
0.00 EBIT 285.31 313.48 419.03
future growth of the company as it results into more diversified revenue
2-Jun-20
5-Jan-22
9-Sep-21
5-Aug-19
5-Dec-19
28-Jul-20
13-Jul-21
15-Jun-18
10-Jun-19
31-Jan-20
15-Jan-21
30-Jun-22
20-Dec-17
10-Aug-18
12-Dec-18
7-Feb-19
22-Sep-20
29-Aug-22
19-Feb-18
8-Apr-19
7-Oct-19
9-Nov-21
4-Mar-22
19-Apr-18
12-Oct-18
18-Nov-20
27-Oct-22
30-Mar-20
16-Mar-21
5-May-22
18-May-21
profile. Introduction of new and innovative products, entry into NET INCOME 226.80 239.52 308.14
7.00 9.67 12.33 15.00 Close Price additional product categories and enhanced manufacturing capabilities EPS 5.23 5.56 7.20
indicate future growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will BVPS 32.50 36.30 41.51
see a price target of Rs.337 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a current
RoE 17.39% 15.63% 17.73%
P/BV of 8.12x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs.41.51.
9
FINOLEX CABLES LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 2.00 l Finolex Cables is a flagship company of the Finolex Group. The company is India's leading manufacturer of electrical and communication
cables. It is principally engaged in the manufacturing influence or of electrical cables communication cables & other electrical appliances. It
52 Week High/Low 593.90/344.00
has set up four modern state-of-the-art plants.
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 8546.25
l The strong market position is backed by an established brand and a robust distribution network, comprising 175000 retailers and 585
EPS (Rs.) 28.25 distributors, linked by an integrated SAP system. The strong distribution network will drive volume growth over the next two fiscals, and give
P/E Ratio (times) 19.78 the company an edge over its competitors in a highly fragmented market. According to the management of the company, this action together
with improving supply conditions and a widening product basket should help to achieve Rs 500 crore revenue targets from its relatively new
appliances business.
Dividend Yield (%) 1.07
l The company has maintained its capex plans of Rs. 200 crore in the next 2 years.
Stock Exchange BSE
l The company has expanded its consumer durable portfolio with an entry into the room heaters segment. Finolex has till now launched
products like electric water heaters, fans, miniature circuit breakers and switches. The company then entered the rigid PVC conduits and
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN fittings business. The room heaters are the latest addition to the portfolio.
l The communication cables segment continues to be impacted by delays in big orders from both the Government & private Telecom
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding
Companies. However, the launch of 5G will lead businesses to ramp-up IT infra leading to higher spending in digitization and OFC cables, which
Foreign 12.24
is expected to drive FCL’s communication cables business.
Institutions 18.29 l In Q2FY2023, revenue increased by 17% on Y-o-Y and 7% on Q-o-Q. Distribution network is paying off well, active participation of retailers
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 1.01 increase in the volume. Volume of Electrical Cables increased by 10%. While in Communication Cables segment, volume of metal-based
product improved by 24% and Optic Fiber Cable volume grew by over 100%.
Promoters 35.86
Public & Others 32.61 RISK

l Fluctuations in copper prices
P/E CHART l Highly Competitive

1200.00
1000.00
VALUATION ACTUAL FORECAST
800.00 With consumer-focused ranges being one of the focus pillars, the FY Mar-22 FY Mar-23 FY Mar-24
600.00
company has a competitive advantage in engineering, facilities and REVENUE 3,768.14 4,482.37 5,082.07
400.00
expertise. According to the management of the company, robust demand EBITDA 415.18 492.03 620.76
200.00
from sectors such as real estate, auto, and industrials would give good
0.00 EBIT 376.33 479.50 613.93
growth to its wires and cables business. The company continues to focus
4-Jul-19
9-Jan-20
5-Sep-19
14-Jul-20
15-Jul-21
20-Jul-22
25-Jun-18
11-Jan-21
17-Jan-22
20-Dec-17
10-Sep-20
16-Sep-21
21-Sep-22
24-Aug-18
31-Dec-18
21-Feb-18
27-Feb-19
8-Nov-19
9-Mar-20
25-Apr-18
29-Oct-18
10-Nov-20
17-Nov-21
23-Nov-22
6-May-19
12-Mar-21
21-Mar-22
14-May-20
18-May-21
23-May-22
NET INCOME 404.61 429.86 532.43

on areas such as cost control, improved asset utilization, reduce debt
10 18 26 34 Close Price levels, and overall improvement in productivity is expected to lead to a EPS 26.46 28.98 36.32
stronger balance sheet in the years to come. Finolex Cables Limited is well BVPS 213.39 234.27 260.67
poised to take advantage of any future growth opportunity. Thus, it is
RoE 13.02% 12.30% 13.83%
expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.654 in 8 to 10 months’
time frame on a target P/E of 18x and FY24 (E) EPS of Rs.36.32.
10
JYOTHY LABS LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 1.00 l Jyothy Labs is a multi-brand FMCG company, involved in the manufacturing and marketing of products in fabric care, dishwash, mosquito
52 Week High/Low 217.25/130.00 repellent and personal care.
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 7544.30 l In a challenging economic environment, the company has delivered a robust 12.6% growth with equal emphasis on offering superior value and
focus on distribution.
EPS (Rs.) 5.17
l The management is hopeful for good business performance in the coming quarters. It will continue to expand and strengthen its footprint by
taking necessary actions. Widening connections in the rural and urban markets will ensure growth for the company and contribute to the
P/B Ratio (times) 7.75 sector. It is consistently increasing market share across the brands.
Dividend Yield (%) 1.22 l The Company’s cost-saving initiatives, innovation, strong brands, an integrated distribution network, and new launches will drive its volume
Stock Exchange BSE growth on the progressing path. Moreover, according to the management of the company, it would continue to focus on technology-led
distribution, increase its brand visibility and improve productivity in all spheres of business to maintain a healthy balance between higher
volume growth, market share and margins.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
l The company currently sells its products through one million direct outlets and three million indirect outlets. It targets a consistent increase
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding in the distribution reach in the coming years. It has a strong grip on its product categories and this has been possible mainly due to a
Foreign 13.11 distribution network.
Institutions 17.48 l The company currently sells its products through one million direct outlets and 2.8 Mn Outlets – Pan India availability with 22 Manufacturing
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 0.32 Plants. It targets a consistent increase in the distribution reach in the coming years.
l The company posted eight consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth in Q2FY2023. Revenue at Rs 1,256 Crores increase by 13.1%
Promoters 62.89
{Ex-HI (household insecticide) 19.7%. Gross Margin at Rs 505 Crores (40.2% of Net Sales) versus Rs 462 Crores (41.6% of Net Sales) in the same
period last year, an increase by 9.2%. PAT at Rs 113.1 Crores as against Rs 84.2 Crores, in the same period last year, an increase by 34.3%.
RISK
P/E CHART
l Economic risk FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE (Rs.in Cr.)
350.00

l Highly competitive
200.00
150.00 VALUATION REVENUE 2,196.49 2,476.68 2,709.75

100.00 EBITDA 248.39 294.54 390.02
50.00
According to the management, the company continues to focus on
0.00 investing on brands and build wider direct distribution to strengthen EBIT 190.23 233.60 325.35
2-Jun-20
5-Jan-22
9-Sep-21
5-Aug-19
5-Dec-19
28-Jul-20
13-Jul-21
15-Jun-18
10-Jun-19
31-Jan-20
15-Jan-21
20-Dec-17
22-Sep-20
30-Jun-22
10-Aug-18
12-Dec-18
7-Feb-19
29-Aug-22
19-Feb-18
8-Apr-19
7-Oct-19
9-Nov-21
4-Mar-22
19-Apr-18
12-Oct-18
18-Nov-20
27-Oct-22
30-Mar-20
16-Mar-21
5-May-22
18-May-21
consumer franchise. It continued to deliver double digit revenue growth NET INCOME 161.98 204.00 284.27
with robust performance for the last few quarters and will focus on
20 30 40 50 Close Price EPS 4.41 5.82 7.94
relentless execution and are determined to continue to win market share
BVPS 39.31 41.40 44.50
by building scale in operations. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see
a price target of Rs.238 in 8 to 10 months time frame on target P/Ex of 30x RoE 7.71% 13.97% 17.47%
and FY24 EPS of Rs.7.94. Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
11
H.G. INFRA ENGINEERING LIMITED

Face Value (Rs.) 10.00 l H.G. Infra Engineering is infrastructure construction, development and Management Company. The main business includes providing
52 Week High/Low 684.80/481.00 engineering-procurement-and-construction (EPC) services on a fixed-sum turnkey basis and undertaking civil construction and related
infrastructure projects.
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 3827.50
l The current order book is around Rs.11500 crore providing good revenue visibility for coming years driven by Ganga Expressway sub-
EPS (Rs.) 52.52
contracting EPC job (worth Rs.4,970.90 crore) recently, it has received a letter from Adani Road Transport regarding the declaration of the
appointed date i.e. 3rd Nov 2022, by Authority for the project in Uttar Pradesh. The scope of the project entails the execution of civil &
P/B Ratio (times) 2.52 associated works on an engineering procurement & construction (EPC) basis. Margin expectation is at 16% with diversified project mix and
Dividend Yield (%) 0.17 softening in input prices and management of the company expects execution of the project, to begin with receipt of the appointed date.
Stock Exchange BSE l Moreover, the company has bid a pipeline of Rs7000 crore consisting of 3 projects in roads, 2 in railways, and 1 each in water and metro.
l The Management of the company expects good order inflows of Rs.9,000-10,000 crore of order inflows during FY23, largely targeting HAM -
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN roads ( Rs.3,500 crore), EPC – roads (Rs.4,500 crore), and non-road (Rs.1,500 crore) segments. The management expects competitive
intensity to decline ahead during FY23, to be driven by a strong order pipeline in the roads segment and growing opportunities in the other
As on Sep’22 % Of Holding
infrastructure verticals such as railways and water supply. Moreover, it expects FY23 revenue to be around Rs.5000-6000 vs Rs.3615 crore FY22
Foreign 1.52 levels.
Institutions 13.86
l The management of the company is looking to monetize its 4 assets {3 projects (Gurgaon-Sohna, Rewari Ateli Mandi, and Narnaul Bypass) have
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 1.50 already received COD( Commercial Operation Date) and 1 (Rewari Bypass Package)} and is expected to be completed by end of FY23.
Promoters 74.53 Moreover, the management of the company expects a reduction in debt to Rs.3000 crore-3500 crore during FY23.
Public & Others 8.59 l The company's consolidated net profit rose 10% to Rs 81.93 crore on 1.3% jump in net sales to Rs 795.70 crore in Q2 FY23 over Q2 FY22.
RISK
P/B CHART
l Strict Operational and strategic regulation FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE (Rs.in Cr.)
1200.00
1000.00 l Currency fluctuation ACTUAL FORECAST

600.00
VALUATION REVENUE 3,615.20 4,415.72 5,235.23
400.00
EBITDA 584.74 685.71 811.68
200.00 The company is doing well with a healthy executable order book position
0.00 and robust execution skills. Moreover, with the government's focus on EBIT 499.68 589.36 698.94
4-Jul-18
1-Jan-19
4-Jun-21
8-Dec-20
2-Aug-21
19-Jul-22
27-Jun-19
19-Jun-20
24-Jan-22
16-Sep-22
31-Aug-18
26-Aug-19
24-Dec-19
14-Aug-20
4-Feb-21
29-Sep-21
26-Feb-19
18-Feb-20
6-Apr-21
1-Nov-18
9-Mar-18
30-Apr-19
27-Oct-19
22-Apr-20
12-Oct-20
29-Nov-21
16-Nov-22
9-May-18
24-Mar-22
24-May-22
expediting transportation projects via Gati Shakti Master Plan, the NET INCOME 338.76 399.75 497.08
1.40 2.50 3.60 4.70 Close Price management expects healthy ordering activity to continue going ahead.
EPS 51.98 61.32 72.35
Given the strong government push, the company expects robust financial
BVPS 209.35 195.32 244.18
growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.712
in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a one year average P/BV of 2.92x and RoE 30.42% 25.41% 23.81%
FY24 BVPS of Rs.244.18.
12
SMC Research Desk
SMC Research also available on Reuters E-mail: smc.care@smcindiaonline.com
Corporate Office: Mumbai Office: Kolkata Office:

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VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

Non Promoter Corporate Holding 1.03

l Regulatory Provisioning on assets

P/B CHART VALUATION

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

Non Promoter Corporate Holding 0.57

P/B CHART VALUATION

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

500.00 l Economic slowdown

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

250.00 VALUATION FY Mar-22 FY Mar-23 FY Mar-24

of 1.70x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.132.96. RoE 7.78% 8.92% 9.86%

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

Public & Others 12.53

500.00 ACTUAL FORECAST

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

Public & Others 32.61 RISK

P/E CHART l Highly Competitive

NET INCOME 404.61 429.86 532.43

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

52 Week High/Low 217.25/130.00 repellent and personal care.

300.00 ACTUAL FORECAST

150.00 VALUATION REVENUE 2,196.49 2,476.68 2,709.75

VALUE PARAMETERS INVESTMENT RATIONALE

1000.00 l Currency fluctuation ACTUAL FORECAST

Corporate Office: Mumbai Office: Kolkata Office:

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