AF Final Project Report 2022
AF Final Project Report 2022
AF Final Project Report 2022
Airline Finance
Final Project Report
Submitted By
Student Name: Muhammad Haseeb Asif
(Complete Student i.d) 10036
Submitted To
Faculty: Respected Sir Abdul Salam
Headmost, all the acclamation is for Allah who made us proficient for concluding this report. The
greater part of our devotions drives to our parents for their endure support at each progression of our
life. Their actions toward our future development are constantly immeasurable. We highly admire
and acknowledge the efforts of our Faculty because it wouldn’t have been this far, we would’ve
never accomplish such difficult task. We want to pay our indebted gratitude to our mentor and
respected teacher Sir Abdul Salam for his valuable advices, guidance, suggestion and directions in
preparing the report and no doubt without his enlightens, it wouldn’t have been possible to complete
this business plan in an effective way, his directions has contributed a lot to establish our ideas in
reality. We would also like to expand our deepest gratitude to all those who have directly and
indirectly guided us in writing this project. This study has got support from a number of persons to
flourish and the involvement was by heart is truly encourage. We thank all the people for their help
directly and indirectly to complete our project.
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Introduction:
Financial risk analysis is the assessment of the likelihood of a threat occurring and its possible
impact. Financial risk is the possibility of losing money on an investment or business venture. Some
more common and distinct financial risks include credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk.
Financial risk is a type of danger that can result in the loss of capital to interested parties. For
governments, this can mean they are unable to control monetary policy and default on bonds or other
debt issues. Corporations also face the possibility of default on debt they undertake but may also
experience failure in an undertaking the causes a financial burden on the business. Hence its
importance in risk management.
Aviation is an industry where continual risk assessing is paramount. Furthermore, the continued
enhancement on technology and procedures makes it one of the safest mode of transportation. The
aviation industry has entered in a golden age, rising steeply in the passenger traffic. Although
primarily analysis of hazards is against safety and security it, the current economic situation together
with fierce competition between airlines and other aviation stakeholders make necessary to develop
new ways of assessing risks. It is clear that a single unforeseen event can result in the total collapse
of airlines and because of the severe impact appropriate control measures should be implemented
and continuously monitored. In detection of these new opportunities, airlines are facing a sequence
of encounters that must be addressed in order to bear commercial development. The airline industry
is characterized by:
• High competition - arising from low barriers to entry and excess industry capacity;
• high costs - particularly for the legacy firms, including fixed costs, such as capital and labor, as
well as variable costs, such as fuel;
• Regulation - focused on safety, maintenance, hours of operation per month for personnel and
restrictions on routes, landing rights and slots.
The Airline Industry is trillion dollars investment and business which includes a lot of capital and
cash flows. The financial management is the core and foremost plan to develop and evaluate first
rather than other important determinants like operations, resources allocation and human resource
etc. If we look into these determinants also comply with finance.
The Financial risk can come from any of these elements like operations, scheduling, catastrophic
accidents, environment, resources allocation and investment strategies. These risks will affect the
very core of aviation companies and present new issues for the players within the aviation industry.
Important financial risks facing the airline industry include interest-rate, currency, foreign currency,
and fuel-price risk.
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Different Types of Airlines
Airlines are often grouped into different categories and precise definitions can vary in different parts
Of the world. However, broadly speaking, airlines can be separated into three main types, which are
As follows:
1. International Airlines
International airlines are a group of the largest, most high-profile and most successful airlines. They
make billions in revenue each year and operate large passenger jets. These airlines also tend to focus
their efforts on offering global services, carrying passengers and cargo over large distances.
Additionally, international airlines usually employ tens of thousands of people, often have multiple
hubs and will provide access to hundreds of destinations. Examples would include Delta Air Lines
and American Airlines.
2. National Airlines
National airlines represent the next step down from the largest international airlines. They will
typically offer both medium-sized and large-sized jets and will often focus on offering services to
areas within their home country, but many will offer access to international destinations too.
A national airline is still likely to employ thousands of people, but will have a smaller fleet size. In
many cases, the destinations they offer flights to are influenced by seasonal fluctuations in demand.
3-Regional Airlines
Finally, as the name suggests, regional airlines are the smallest of the three main types and focus on
offering services within specific regions. In many cases, they provide passenger services to parts of
the world with lower levels of demand and where services are not offered by either national or
international airlines.
Some regional airlines also function as an affiliate for a national or international airline. Within this
context, they will typically provide connection flights from the region they cover to the airline’s
main hubs.
Financial Risk Analysis
Financial Risk Analysis looks at a company’s problems it could potentially encounter in daily
operations. When changes in financial markets, legal liabilities or even manmade disasters occur,
business operations can be disrupted.
Once you identify potential risks, you can then prioritize them and take action steps to handle them,
which include avoiding the risk, reducing negative effects, accepting the consequences of the risk, or
transferring the risk elsewhere.
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As a growing company, proactively managing business risks will help you sustain growth. But,
before you start identifying risks, assess your business. Ask yourself what could affect key services
you offer or what could affect your staff.
Airlines are doing everything to reduce costs
Some of the risks stem from complex industry structure
Necessary to reduce the risk
Much of this risk, however, could be identified and managed
Effective strategies, adopted by other sectors
In general, the financial markets do not trust airlines
Risks
There are four main categories of risk you should consider to help you identify potential risks within
your business:
Compliance
These are risks related to the need to comply with rules and regulations. For example, you may need
to think about whether health and safety regulations could increase your overhead costs.
Strategic
These are risks associated with operating in a particular industry like companies merging, industry
changes, or research development. You want to think about the strategic risk of the possibility of a
company in China acquiring one of your competitors in the U.S. You want to be prepared with
response by considering different scenarios.
Financial
These risks include your business transactions and your financial systems in place. To identify
financial risk, examine your daily financial operations, particularly cash flow.
Operational – These risks are linked to your company’s administrative and operational procedures
ranging from your IT systems, to regulations to recruitment.
For instance, if you’re a growing business, consider the most common risk factor, underdeveloped
operational infrastructure. Many companies are so focused on their ability to produce today that
don’t put enough into building operational infrastructure to sustain growth over the course of time.
Operational infrastructure includes decision-making, goals and measures, training and development,
and much more all factors that help generate revenue, care for your customers and allow your
company to remain competitive. Once you’ve identified this as a risk, you can manage it. When your
business has developed operational infrastructure, you can start working on your business rather than
in your business.
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Major Financial Risk for Commercial Airlines:
To evaluate and manage the financial risks for the airlines are very significant. Some of the major
financial risks for the airlines industry are:
1- Fuel prices: Jet fuel accounts for a large portion of passenger airlines' operating costs, and
airlines' earnings are susceptible to swings in the price of jet fuel. Because of jet fuel price
risks, many airlines have created fuel hedging programs in an attempt to limit their exposure
to upward swings in the cost of jet fuel. The problem with jet fuel is not specifically the cost
but the volatility in the cost, because risk does not necessarily depend on the cost of the
assets of airlines often have a difficult time hedging. Airlines frequently use an Over the
Counter (OTC) contract called a forward that is specifically catered to the airline's needs, but
this is often a difficult task for an airline that refuels in many places. The OTC derivative
markets were implicated as a systemic risk. However, even with the trouble that cross
hedging can give an airline, most big airlines still hedge, while a smaller number of airlines
ceased to hedge in recent years. Fuel prices is the most and highest risk for any airline
financially. It can create a lot of hurdles to every part of the airlines business.
Inherently dependent upon jet fuel to operate
Unpredictable price movements
Difficult to compensate an increase in price with fare prices due to competitive nature of
the industry
Fuel usually makes up at least 1/3 of operating expenses
2- Interest Rate: Interest rate risk is relevant in many investment funds where longer term
investments may be bought with the risk that interest rates may increase during the term of
the investment purchase. If interests rate rise the portfolio will face a drop in overall value.
The low interest environment has been a significant contributor to the growth of operating
lease companies worldwide. Historically, lessors used their borrowing capacity for cheap,
unsecured debt to fund deliveries of new aircraft, so the low cost of funding became a
competitive advantage. But, there’s a big “but”. If interest rates do continue to rise, the
industry as we know it may start to lose cabin pressure. The cost of funding rises with rising
interest rates and the question is, will investors remain with the asset class as a diversification
strategy, or will they move to alternative higher yield returns. The industry cost of higher
interest rates is more than just an increase in the cost of borrowing; it also decreases access to
capital markets and creates downward pressure on aircraft values. We may see non-
traditional investment players dropping out of the market - and while those less well-hedged,
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less well-funded lessors leave, the established “big boys” and airlines with better credit and
US dollar reserves are more likely to be able to navigate the other higher interest rate issues.
Investors from the fixed income side, such as insurance firms, were interested in long-dated
rated asset paper.
3- Exchange Rate: The international nature of the aviation industry means that airlines are
exposed to currency fluctuation risk. Most carriers incur both costs and revenues in a number
of currencies, and the fact that some of these cash flows require conversion into a different
currency forms the basis of an airline’s foreign exchange (FX) risk. In ‘normal’ times, annual
changes in exchange rates are typically relatively small, and can be either mitigated or
largely absorbed by carriers. Changes in exchange rates can impact the composition of
passenger demand. The sensitivity of demand to changes in price including changes driven
by FX shifts differs from market to market. Highly leisure-driven markets tend to be more
sensitive to price shifts than the more business-oriented routes. Exchange rate fluctuations
can also impact airline finances, both day-to-day operating activities (profitability) and
balance sheet valuations. Large movements in exchange rates impact airlines through Three
main channels; consumer decisions (demand), airline decisions (supply) and financial
impacts. Of these, the consumer (demand) response to a significant move in relative prices
can be swift and may prompt a response from airlines, including adjustments to capacity
supply.
4- Economic Risk: Airline industry is particularly sensitive to changes in economic conditions
Affects customer travel patterns and related revenues. In harsh economic times, customers
will cut back on both leisure and business travel hampers the ability of airlines to raise fares
to counteract increase in fuel, labor and other costs. COVID-19 has caused a significant loss
in air connectivity. As a result of travel restrictions, unique city-pairs declined for the first
time since the global financial crisis. In 2020, the number of unique city-pairs was reduced
by 30%. In 2021, unique city-pair connectivity is expected to partly recover as airlines
expand their networks with the easing of travel restrictions in some regions.
5- Liquidity Risk: It is a type of risk that is unable to meet its payment obligations associated
with its financial liabilities when thy fall due to replace funds when they are withdrawn.
It includes:
Day to day funding by monitoring future cash flows to ensure that requirements can be
met.
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Financial Analysis between Airlines:
Cathay Pacific Airlines and China Airlines have succumbed to major challenges of high fuel prices,
weakening revenues and economic uncertainties, evidenced by the thriving growth of low cost
carriers within the region, the negative impact on the economy class yields and its cargo business for
both the carriers Cathay Pacific Airlines and China Airlines have succumbed to major challenges of
high fuel prices, weakening revenues and economic uncertainties, evidenced by the thriving growth
of low cost carriers within the region, the negative impact on the economy class yields and its cargo
business for both the carriers Besides increased competition, high and volatile fuel prices challenge
airlines further. Fuel accounted for 33 percent of average operating costs in 2012, for 22 percent in
2005 and for 13 percent in 2001 (IATA1 , 2012a).The overall fuel bill amounted to177 billion U.S.
dollars (USD) in 2011 (IATA, 2012b). Delta Air Lines, for example, reports fuel expenses of 36
percent of total operating costs in 2012 (Delta Air Lines, 2013).Even the gulf-carrier Emirates with
its supposed easy access to oil declared fuel costs of 34 percent (Emirates, 2012). In addition to the
cost level, fuel price volatility and a large crack spread with the underlying commodity crude oil add
to the airlines’ fuel problems (IATA, 2012b). However, the exposure to market pressure prevents
airlines from raising ticket fares in response to the high kerosene prices (Carter et al., 2004). Button
et al. (2011), analyzing the Portuguese airline market show that full cost recovery is impossible in
the current competitive situation. As airlines are unable to increase ticket prices they put their efforts
on hedging activities.2 Airlines started to employ fuel hedging as a risk management strategy in the
late 1980s. Before, mostly currency derivatives to counteract exchange rate fluctuations were used
(Morrell and Swan, 2006). Under the assumption of the famous Modigliani and Miller Proposition 1
(1958) debt policy and consequently risk management are extraneous for investors under perfect
market conditions as investors can diversify on their own. Nevertheless, due to existing market
imperfections (Deshmukhand Vogt, 2005) research results suggest that hedging does make sense
under different conditions and in fact, might add to firm value. Companies can hedge by either using
financial derivatives or by altering real option decisions (operational hedging) (Smith andStulz,
1985).Firms generally use financial and operational hedging complementary (e.g. Kim, Mathura and
Nam, 2006; Tenor, 2008). Real options may include fleet diversity, fleet fuel-efficiency and
optimized fleet assignment (Morrell and Swan, 2006; Neumann, Suhl and Friedman, 2012; Tenor,
2008; Tenor, 2012; Tenor, Rogers, Carter and Sickens, 2012a) European airlines hedge more
actively than American airlines. While analyzing the cost competitiveness of 22 major worldwide
airlines, Ovum and Yu (1995, 1998) uncover that Asian carriers are more cost competitive than
American and European airlines. American airlines in turn have a better cost position than European
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carriers. Cobs and Wolf (2004) also point to differing hedging strategies among LCC and value
carriers. Therefore, the authors will focus on differences in commodity exposure between Asian,
European and North American carriers as well as differences between LCC and premium airlines in
the period of 2002-2012.So far, to our knowledge, no empirical research has dealt with regional or
business model differences. A fixed effects regression model using panel data should estimate the
effectiveness of operational and financial hedging.
Today’s aviation business is much more competitive with business models that range across the
spectrum. The competitive and transparent nature of the business often results in thinner profit
margins. Thus, there is little room for error when it comes to managing its financial aspects. In order
to compete effectively, airlines must understand and manage all the risk factors that can impact their
financial performance, including financial, economic, political, and data breaches, just to name a
few. This project of airline finance will impart knowledge not only on specific risks airlines are
exposed to, but also how these risk factors affect and move in relation to each other. For example,
foreign currency exposure (FX) and fuel prices are related to each other. To simply look at FX risk
in isolation would omit the impact of fuel price forces. The ultimate goal of risk management is to
respond to risks and exposures in a way that minimizes their impact on the volatility of the airline
business and will offer you a networking opportunity with peer professionals, and a number of
technical tools and skills that will allow you to quantify the aggregate and net risks as well as assess
their overall impact on the business. The airline industry faces substantial financial risks exposure
that affects the vulnerability of stock returns which arises from changing economic conditions,
volatile fuel price movements and fluctuations in exchange rates These exposures are attributed to
the cyclical demand, strong price competition, high gearing levels, capital investment, fixed costs of
labor and equipment and regulatory impediments such as ownership restrictions and landing rights.
Consequently, Managing exposure to key financial risks is an integral part of the corporate finance
function.
Interest-rate, currency and fuel-price exposure are acknowledged to be important risks affecting the
airline industry and are commonly hedged. For example, in its 2003 annual report to shareholders,
Qantas states in note 32 that it ‘is subject to interest rate, foreign currency, fuel price and credit
risks’.1 This same note indicates that Qantas ‘manages these risk exposures using various financial
instruments’ and provides examples of hedging instruments which they employ.2 These include
interest-rate swaps, forward rate agreements and options to manage interest rate risk; cross-currency
swaps, forward foreign exchange contracts and currency options to manage currency risk; options
and swaps on aviation fuel and crude oil to manage fuel price risk.
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Most airlines have a global footprint and are vulnerable to external factors, such as political tension
and economic conjunctures.
In the case of the commercial aviation sector, political stability and sustained economic growth are
major underlying factors driving long-term growth in air traffic.
Although the global economy has risen from the ashes of the financial crisis in 2007-2008, and the
economic outlook is reasonable, uncertainty remains.
The US-China trade dispute is causing instability in markets around the world, and economies have
started to show signs of a potential slow-down in including China, the world’s largest economy that
recently reduced its GDP growth target. A fluctuation in currency exchange rates is the ninth type of
risk that in the aviation industry in 2019.
Given that a large amount of aviation companies operate globally, a large portion of their revenue
streams are earned in a variety of currencies, making them vulnerable fluctuations in currency
exchange rates. Furthermore, currency fluctuation also affects the receivables, payables and return
on denominated in foreign currencies.
Financial performance is also affected by price fluctuations in key commodities or raw materials,
such as aluminum, titanium and composites that have a significant effect on the manufacturing costs
as well as the profitability of the entire supply chain. The airline industry is highly competitive and
capital-intensive. Because of its capital-intensive nature, fixed costs and barriers to exit are high.
Competition in the airline industry is intense as barriers to entry are low due to liberalization of
market access, a result of globalization. According to the IATA (International Air Transport
Association), about 1,300 new airlines were established in the last 40 years.
Political Risk: It is also one of the major issue nowadays specially after the Russia Ukraine war and
US-China economic war. There are alliances that are formed like many countries doesn’t allow some
specific national carrier to fly over them. For example as we may have heard about the former air
space issue of Pakistan-India and North Korea-South Korea issue.
These conflicts directly and indirectly effects the operations of national carriers which is a very big
financial risk in results of such restrictions. Like they face losses and market potential in billions of
rupees and it also cost them to take a more wider route and it also impact on their fuel consumption
which results in more operating expense hence it can threaten the costs and overall financial impacts
of the airline operations.
Stock price and fuel exposure the relationship between fuel price and stock prices varies across
economies. The effects of oil price changes on sub-sector indices (such as wood, paper and printing,
insurance and electricity) on the Istanbul Stock Exchange were positively significant for the period
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April 2000 – November 2011(Eryiğit, 2009). With respect to the U.S. aviation industry, evidence
suggested that airlines stock returns were negatively correlated to percentage change in jet fuel
prices and jet fuel hedging is positively related to airline firm value (Carter, Rogers, & Simkins,
2004). This is consistent with (Loudon, 2004), who suggested Qantas and Air New Zealand were
negatively exposed to fuel price risk in the short term. Due to the limited literature pertaining to the
effect of jet fuel to stock price, this research area could be further explored.
Main Advantages:
Airline builds up equity in the aircraft as it pays down the mortgage or finance lease
The airline is the owner of the aircraft and so can modify it to its own exact requirements
As the owner of the aircraft the airline is able to gain significant taxation benefits in most
countries
Main Disadvantages:
The is subject to residual value risk at the end of the term
Less flexible method of ownership when compared to an operating lease
Heavily weighs down a company’s balance sheet which may affect other banking covenants.
When acquiring an aircraft on an operating lease the airline signs a contract which allows it use of
the aircraft for a specified period, for a set specified payment. This payment is known the 'rental'.
Payment of this rental grants the airline the use of the aircraft, not the ownership. The entity that
leases the aircraft to the airline is the owner of the unit retains title to it after purchasing it from the
manufacturer. Leases are usually put in place for shorter terms than a finance contract, generally 3-7
years for narrow body aircraft and possibly longer for wide body units. At the end of the lease the
Page 11 of 19
airline simply returns the aircraft to the owner or can make an offer to purchase it (also lease
purchase agreement). In most cases the airline will be required to provide 3 months rental as a
security deposit, which is returned to the airline once the lease is complete, provided the aircraft is
returned in proper order. Monthly rental costs vary depending on market demand for aircraft though
average approximately 1% of the new purchase cost of the unit.
Main Advantages:
Reduction in initial capital requirements
Residual value risk is eliminated as it stays with the owner of the aircraft
The liability stays off balance sheet, having less impact of banking restrictions
Main Disadvantages:
All equity built up in the unit is retained by the Lessee owner
Generally smaller tax advantages are available
Owner of the aircraft may impose onerous restrictions.
Today’s aviation business is much more competitive with business models that range across the
spectrum. The competitive and transparent nature of the business often results in thinner profit
margins. Thus, there is little room for error when it comes to managing its financial aspects. In order
to compete effectively, airlines must understand and manage all the risk factors that can impact their
financial performance, including financial, economic, political, and data breaches, just to name a
few. This project of airline finance will impart knowledge not only on specific risks airlines are
exposed to, but also how these risk factors affect and move in relation to each other. For example,
foreign currency exposure (FX) and fuel prices are related to each other. To simply look at FX risk
in isolation would omit the impact of fuel price forces. The ultimate goal of risk management is to
respond to risks and exposures in a way that minimizes their impact on the volatility of the airline
business and will offer you a networking opportunity with peer professionals, and a number of
technical tools and skills that will allow you to quantify the aggregate and net risks as well as assess
their overall impact on the business.
The airline industry faces substantial financial risks exposure that affects the vulnerability of stock
returns which arises from changing economic conditions, volatile fuel price movements and
fluctuations in exchange rates These exposures are attributed to the cyclical demand, strong price
competition, high gearing levels, capital investment, fixed costs of labor and equipment and
Page 12 of 19
regulatory impediments such as ownership restrictions and landing rights. Consequently, Managing
exposure to key financial risks is an integral part of the corporate finance function
Page 13 of 19
Finance cost etc.
Low Gross Profit despite very good sales revenues
So here we can compare PIA and Emirates consolidated statement of 2020-21 it is very clearly
visible that how both works from their financing and financial statements.
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Here we can see that PIA was unable to meet Interest expense obligations and Questionable this year
Due to heavy operating losses.
Some Endorsements:
Overstaffing at PIA due to Political pressures
Reduce staff to avoid heavy salaries
Utilization of Assets properly
Must increase G.P to avoid losses
Finance Costs
Should privatize supporting staff duties to lower down the cost
Operate flights on time
Needs exemplary leadership
Qualified and merit based staff and
Technically strong administration
Page 15 of 19
Conclusion:
It is clear that a single unforeseen event can result in the total collapse of airlines and because of the
severe impact appropriate control measures should be implemented and continuously monitored. In
detection of these new opportunities, airlines are facing a sequence of encounters that must be
addressed in order to bear commercial development. The Airline Industry is trillion dollars
investment and business which includes a lot of capital and cash flows. The financial management is
the core and foremost plan to develop and evaluate first rather than other important determinants like
operations, resources allocation and human resource etc. If we look into these determinants also
comply with finance. Today’s aviation business is much more competitive with business models that
range across the spectrum. The competitive and transparent nature of the business often results in
thinner profit margins. Thus, there is little room for error when it comes to managing its financial
aspects. In order to compete effectively, airlines must understand and manage all the risk factors that
can impact their financial performance, including financial, economic and political. The ultimate
goal of risk management is to respond to risks and exposures in a way that minimizes their impact on
the volatility of the airline business. This will allow you to quantify the aggregate and net risks as
well as assess their overall impact on the business. Only Risk Management can help the airlines to
control and get out of that. Risk management can sort out all the risks that are in the operations and
that will be coming in the future due to current investments and actions. We compared the financial
analysis of different airlines to each other for the comparison of one’s fault and the others better
initiatives. Aviation is an industry where continual risk assessing is paramount. Furthermore, the
continued enhancement of technology and procedures makes it one of the safest modes of
transportation. Although primarily analysis of hazards is against safety and security, the current
economic situation together with fierce competition between airports, airlines and other aviation
stakeholders make it necessary to develop new ways of assessing risks.
Page 16 of 19
References:
https://www.piac.com.pk/corporate/images/corporate_reports/March%20PIACL%20-
%20Consolidated%20(1).pdf
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?
hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=financial+risk+analysis+of+commercial+airlines&btnG=&oq=financial+
risk+analysis+of+commercial+airl
https://www.slideshare.net/fadikhisko/financial-analysis-of-pakistan-international-airlines
https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf
https://www.piac.com.pk/corporate/images/corporate_reports/Half-Yearly-Report-2021.pdf
https://www.iata.org/en/training/courses/airline-financial-risk/talf94/en/
https://trid.trb.org/view/1576122
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307546930_Financial_risk_exposures_of_the_airlines_ind
ustry_Evidence_from_cathay_pacific_airways_and_China_airlines
Apergis, N., & Eleftheriou, S. (2002). Interest rates, inflation, and stock prices: the case of the
Athens Stock Exchange. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(3), 231-236. Assaf, A. G., & Josiassen, A.
(2011). The operational performance of UK airlines: 2002-2007. Journal of Economic Studies,
38(1),
5-16.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352146518303429
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Important Instructions for Project Report
(10 Marks)
Report Writing Style: Times New Roman.
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Writing Font Size: 12 of all headings used but Bold.
Content Copy / Paste based may adversely effects on marks of individual participants
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