Reliance Industries LTD

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research
8 December 2022
Reliance Industries Ltd

2023 - Earnings should improve; stock returns to be
driven mainly by JFS; markets not ascribing material Overweight
value yet RELI.BO, RIL IN
Price (08 Dec 22):Rs2,649.25
Price Target (Dec-23):Rs3,065.00
We expect earnings to improve in CY23 as Petrochem, E&P, and Retail pick up Metals & Mining/ Oil & Gas
further, while Refining remains stable and Jio benefits from tariff hikes. While Pinakin Parekh, CFA AC
stable to higher earnings should support the stock, we believe CY23 will likely be (91-22) 6157-3588
mostly about Jio Financial Services (JFS) as the Consumer business (Jio, Retail) pinakin.m.parekh@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg JPMA PAREKH <GO>
IPOs are still some time away. While New Energy remains the most interesting part
of RIL’s longer-term earnings and valuation story and we expect RIL to continue Sarfraz Bhimani, CFA
(91-22) 6157-3589
to buy and build the various pieces, we do not expect any immediate monetization
sarfraz.bhimani@jpmorgan.com
(via a stake sale similar to Jio/Retail). We expect incremental newsflow to be J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
centered mostly around JFS as RIL looks to build out the business. We currently
value JFS at the treasury share value of RIL it would hold, but believe most of the
upside in CY23 will likely come from JFS value creation as we get closer to the Key Changes (FYE Mar)
demerger. FII shareholding has also declined through CY22. We remain OW with Prev Cur
a Rs3,065 PT (end date to Dec-23 v/s June-23 previously). Adj. EPS - 23E (Rs) 125.10 114.69
Adj. EPS - 24E (Rs) 131.85 129.33
Adj. EBITDA - 23E (Rs mn) 1,558,351 1,466,675
• We cut our FY23 EPS by 8%, expect FY24 to be better on stable refining, Adj. EBITDA - 24E (Rs mn) 1,628,924 1,639,748
better Petrochem, higher E&P, and stronger Retail: The diesel export tax
and sharp collapse in Petrochem spreads drives our FY23 EPS cut. Going into Style Exposure
FY24 we expect range-bound oil prices to drive export taxes sharply lower.
China reopening should drive some recovery in Petrochem spreads (RIL
annualized polymer prod ~5.6MT, Polyester ~2.4MT, Fiber Intermediates
~3.6MT and Other Chemicals at ~14MT). Increase in India Gas prices
combined with higher volumes should drive India E&P higher. Retail should
also benefit from increased floor space, and telecom tariffs (~8-10%) should
be positive. With the spectrum auction done, overall capex intensity should
turn lower v/s FY23 (annualized capex including spectrum purchase has been
running at Rs1.4trn to Rs1.8trn in the last three quarters).
• While New Energy remains an interesting part of RIL’s longer-term
earnings and valuation thesis, CY23 is likely going to be all about JFS:
RIL’s vision for the New Energy business encompasses every part of the value
chain and RIL’s balance sheet and execution capabilities position it well.
However this is going to be a long-term story, with the next 2-3 year focus being
on Solar and that too for meeting the company’s internal requirements. From
a stock price perspective, we believe JFS is going to be the key driver. We
currently value JFS at the RIL treasury stock value (1x), and the next 12 months
depending on how RIL builds out and scales up JFS (organic/acquisition) will
likely determine how markets value JFS. Every 1x turn higher on the RIL
treasury stock adds ~Rs190 to our FV.
• YTD RIL has outperformed NIFTY driven by 1H performance; CY23
should again be a relative outperformer especially if markets are range-
bound/drift lower: Key risks include a) a collapse in GRMs; b) large M&A;
c) no tariff hikes; d) windfall taxes on Gas and a cap on prices.
Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
See page 12 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.
Pinakin Parekh, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(91-22) 6157-3588 8 December 2022 JPMORGAN
pinakin.m.parekh@jpmorgan.com
Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis
We expect earnings to improve in CY23 as Petrochem, E&P,
and Retail pick up further, while Refining remains stable and
Jio benefits from tariff hikes. While stable to higher earnings
should support the stock, we believe CY23 is likely going to
be mostly about Jio Financial Services (JFS) as the Consumer
business (Jio, Retail) IPOs are still some time away. While
New Energy remains the most interesting part of RIL’s
longer-term earnings and valuation story and we expect RIL
to continue to buy and build the various pieces, we do not
YTD 1m 3m 12m expect any immediate monetization (via a stake sale similar
Abs 10.2% 1.6% 2.5% 9.6%
Rel 3.2% -0.3% -1.8% 3.3% to Jio/Retail). We currently value JFS at the treasury share
value of RIL it would hold, but believe that most of the
Company Data upside in CY23 will likely come from JFS value creation as
Shares O/S (mn) 5,920 we get closer to the demerger.
52-week range (Rs) 2,856.15-2,145.00
Market cap ($ mn) 190,141 Valuation
Exchange rate 82.48
Free float(%) 42.6% Our sum-of-the-parts-based Dec-23 price target of Rs3,065 is
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 5.44 based on FY24E earnings.
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 166.9
Volatility (90 Day) 21
Index NIFTY Performance Drivers
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL 29|4|3
Key Metrics (FYE Mar)

Rs in millions FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Financial Estimates
Revenue 6,999,620 10,171,652 10,721,154 11,238,253
Adj. EBITDA 1,104,600 1,466,675 1,639,748 1,717,819
Adj. EBIT 806,630 1,108,206 1,263,095 1,326,572
Adj. net income 578,690 775,975 875,021 908,124
Adj. EPS 85.58 114.69 129.33 134.22
BBG EPS 91.03 111.60 127.63 -
Cashflow from operations 1,073,670 931,147 1,317,043 1,309,401
FCFF (555,230) (731,781) 380,719 406,642
Margins and Growth
Revenue growth 49.9% 45.3% 5.4% 4.8%
EBITDA margin 15.8% 14.4% 15.3% 15.3%
EBITDA growth 36.8% 32.8% 11.8% 4.8%
EBIT margin 11.5% 10.9% 11.8% 11.8%
Net margin 8.3% 7.6% 8.2% 8.1%
Adj. EPS growth 33.1% 34.0% 12.8% 3.8%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate 20.8% 23.1% 23.3% 22.8%
Interest cover NM 215.8 211.9 172.6
Net debt/Equity NM 0.0 0.0 NM
Net debt/EBITDA NM 0.2 0.0 NM
ROCE 5.8% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3%
ROE 7.8% 9.5% 9.8% 9.3%
Valuation
FCFF yield (3.1%) (4.1%) 2.1% 2.3%
Dividend yield 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
EV/Revenue 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.5
EV/EBITDA 14.7 11.7 10.3 9.6
Adj. P/E 31.0 23.1 20.5 19.7
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be
complete or exact. Based on closing price of 14 June 2022.

CY23 should be another year of relative

outperformance, not necessarily large
absolute performance
After three years of large outperformance in CY17-20 (driven partially by the global
tech rally), RIL underperformed the NIFTY in CY21 and has modestly out performed
YTD CY22.
Going into CY23, we expect another year of relative outperformance especially if the
markets remain choppy and RIL’s underlying earnings improvement comes through.
RIL is currently in another mini capex cycle across Petrochem, Telecom (Jio), New
Energy even as the ramp-up of non-telecom initiatives in Jio and continued ramp-up of
new initiatives in Retail (Digital, FMCG launch) continue. The full impact of all these
spending initiatives should be seen from CY24 onwards. In our view, how JFS is rolled
out/built out would be a key driver for the stock price in CY23, as current expectations
remain low.
Figure 1: RIL v/s NIFTY: In the last 11 years, RIL has NOT seen a negative return on a full year basis
(%)
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
FY23 vs FY24: Earnings environment should improve

While we cut our FY23 EPS estimates by 8%, we forecast a 13% y/y increase in FY24
EPS driven by the following:
• Higher E&P earnings driven by higher prices and volumes. We forecast India E&P
segment EBITDA to increase by 20% y/y
• Better Petrochem spreads offsetting lower GRMs y/y; Lower oil prices should drive
export taxes lower
• Retail business to benefit from higher floor space and recent acquisitions (more in
the Grocery segment)
• Likely telecom tariff hikes, though not as large as the previous ones

Figure 2: RIL segmental EBITDA (Rs bn)
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, company data
JFS to be a key stock price driver in CY23 even as Renewables

remains the key long-term story for RIL
Our conversation with investors indicates that investors are unwilling to ascribe a
material value to JFS at this point given that most of the businesses still need to be
built out. The official demerger should take up to a year in our view, and over the
next 12 months we would expect RIL to build out the overall JFS business via both
organic and acquisition steps. We currently value JFS at the RIL treasury stock
value (1x), and the next 12 months depending on how RIL builds out and scales up
JFS (organic/acquisition) should determine how markets value JFS. Every 1x turn
higher on the RIL treasury stock adds ~Rs190 to our FV.
RIL announced the demerger of Jio Financial Services (JFS) into a separate entity with
existing shareholder of RIL getting 1 share in JFS for every share they own in RIL. The
key points are as follows:
• a) Post the demerger JFS to be listed in the exchanges
• b) The current 6.1% holding in RIL owned by RIHL would be transferred to JFS,
and in our view, effectively for JFS that would be the starting point of valuation
(6.1% stake in RIL)
• c) Via the scheme of demerger, JFS would acquire liquid assets to provide adequate
regulatory capital for lending to consumers and merchants, and incubate other
financial service verticals for the next three years
• d) Per RIL, ‘JFSL and its subsidiaries (“JFS”) will leverage the technology
capability of Reliance and focus on digital delivery of financial products to
democratize financial services access for 1.4 billion Indians.The current footprint
touches more than 20 million consumers’.
• e) Per RIL, ‘JFS plans to launch consumer and merchant lending business based on
proprietary data analytics to complement and supplement the traditional credit
bureau-based underwriting. JFS will continue to evaluate organic growth, joint-
venture partnerships as well as inorganic opportunities in insurance, asset
management and digital broking segments. Flexible structure for JFS to partner
with strategic or financial investors with enhanced strategic focus to support the
company's growth drivers’.

We view the JFS demerger as a major positive as it would allow RIL shareholders
a direct play on India’s fast growing Digital Fintech market, via an entity which
would be able to leverage RIL’s vast footprint across Telecom and Retail. For
example in the Retail business, RIL currently has 16,617 stores across formats and
categories in its Retail business. RIL’s Retail business is the industry leader across
Retail categories. This large footprint gives JFS a material advantage. RIL’s telecom
footprint (Jio) and Retail footprint should allow for faster rollout of JFS.
New Energy is a key focus area for RIL, but no immediate

monetization likely
RIL’s vision for the New Energy business encompasses every part of the value chain
and RIL’s balance sheet and execution capabilities position it well, in our view.
However this is going to be a long-term story, with the next 2-3 year focus being on
Solar and that too for meeting the company’s internal requirements. As part of its New
Energy foray, RIL had announced the setting up of Giga factories in a) photovoltaic
panels; b) energy storage; c) Green Hydrogen; d) fuel cell systems. RIL in its AGM this
year, announced the setting up of its fifth Giga factory for Power Electronics. On solar
PV, RIL expects that REC (which was acquired) would expand its current annual
module production capacity from 1.2GW to 1.8GW. RIL’s 10GW solar PV cell and
module factory at Jamnagar, based on REC technology, should be operational by
2024 and the capacity would be increased in a phased manner to 20GW by 2026.
RIL aims to start production of battery packs by 2023 and plans to scale up to a 5GWh
annual cell pack manufacturing facility and further scale up to 50 GWh by 2027. On
Hydrogen RIL is currently among the largest producers of Gray Hydrogen and plans to
progressively commence the transition to Green Hydrogen by 2025. Per RIL its captive
energy requirements provide a large base load demand for its Giga factories and
plans to set up a 20GW solar generating capacity by 2025 and this would be entirely
consumed by RIL’s captive requirements and intermittent energy for Green Hydrogen.
Figure 3: Singapore GRM ($/bbl) have come off, but should remain elevated next year
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Figure 4: Diesel cracks ($/bbl) have come off from peak levels, and seasonally should further
decline in 1HCY23, but overall remain well above seasonal averages
Figure 5: PE-Naphtha spreads ($/mt) have come off sharply and are at decadal lows; China
reopening should drive spreads higher over the next two years
Figure 6: PX-Naphtha ($/mt) have been relatively more stable v/s PE spreads

Figure 7: Naphtha-Ethane spreads ($/bbl) have remained supportive and should remain so with
stable Brent and weaker Ethane prices next year
Figure 8: O2C EBITDA (Rs bn) v/s SG GRM ($/bbl) - O2C EBITDA should improve from 2Q levels
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan
Figure 9: India E&P EBITDA (Rs bn) v/s domestic gas price ceiling ($/mmbtu, GCV) – Higher gas
prices should benefit India E&P
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan

Figure 10: Retail revenue v/s Retail EBITDA (Rs bn); we forecast secular Retail Revenue and EBITDA
growth
Figure 11: Retail revenue growth y/y v/s EBITDA margin (%)
Figure 12: RIL FII vs MF shareholding snapshot (%) - FII shareholding has come off
Source: BSE, Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates

Figure 13: RIL one year forward EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Reliance Industries Ltd (Overweight; Price Target: Rs3,065.00)
Investment Thesis
We expect earnings to improve in CY23 as Petrochem, E&P, Retail pick up further, while
Refining remains stable and Jio benefits from tariff hikes. While stable to higher earnings
should support the stock, we believe CY23 is likely going to be mostly about Jio Financial
Services (JFS) as the Consumer business (Jio, Retail) IPOs are still some time away. While
New Energy remains the most interesting part of RIL’s longer-term earnings and valuation
story and we expect RIL to continue to buy and build the various pieces, we do not expect
any immediate monetization (via a stake sale similar to Jio/Retail).
We currently value JFS at the RIL treasury stock value (1x) and depending on how RIL
builds out and scales up JFS (organic/acquisition) will determine how markets value JFS.
Every 1x turn higher on the RIL treasury stock adds ~Rs190 to our FV. We view the JFS
demerger as a major positive as it would allow RIL shareholders a direct play on India’s fast
growing Digital Fintech market, via an entity which would be able to leverage RIL’s vast
footprint across Telecom and Retail.
RIL is currently in another mini capex cycle across Petrochem, Telecom (Jio), New Energy
even as the ramp-up of non-telecom initiatives in Jio and continued ramp-up of new
initiatives in Retail (Digital, FMCG launch) continue. The full impact of all these spending
initiatives should be seen from CY24 onwards.
Valuation
Our sum-of-the-parts-based Dec-23 price target of Rs3,065 is based on FY24E earnings:
Segment Highlights FY24 Per Share

Renewables Option Value 237
O2C 859
Upstream 107
JPL Telecom 100% 890
JPL Platform 100% 103
Physical Retail 100% 953
Jio Mart 100% 479
JFS/Treasury Shares 189
Less Net Debt 209
Less Minority 543
Implied Equity Value/Fair Value 3,065
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Risks to Rating and Price Target

The key downside risks to our rating and price target include: a) collapse in GRMs; b) large
M&A; c) no tariff hikes; d) windfall taxes on Gas and cap on prices.
10

Reliance Industries Ltd: Summary of Financials

Income Statement FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Cash Flow Statement FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Revenue 6,999,620 10,171,652 10,721,154 11,238,253 Cash flow from operating activities 1,073,670 931,147 1,317,043 1,309,401
COGS (4,749,120) (4,801,011) (4,801,011) (4,801,011) o/w Depreciation & amortization 297,970 358,469 376,653 391,247
Gross profit 2,250,500 5,370,641 5,920,144 6,437,242 o/w Changes in working capital 197,010 (203,297) 65,368 10,029
SG&A - - - -
Adj. EBITDA 1,104,600 1,466,675 1,639,748 1,717,819 Cash flow from investing activities (1,628,900) (1,662,928) (936,324) (902,759)
D&A (297,970) (358,469) (376,653) (391,247) o/w Capital expenditure (1,628,900) (1,662,928) (936,324) (902,759)
Adj. EBIT 806,630 1,108,206 1,263,095 1,326,572 as % of sales 23.3% 16.3% 8.7% 8.0%
Net Interest 3,630 (6,796) (7,737) (9,953)
Adj. PBT 781,900 1,101,410 1,255,357 1,316,619 Cash flow from financing activities 599,530 576,290 (146,660) (146,660)
Tax (162,970) (253,980) (292,811) (300,506) o/w Dividends paid (54,096) (67,660) (67,660) (67,660)
Minority Interest (68,600) (71,456) (87,525) (107,988) o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) 268,536 0 0 0
Adj. Net Income 578,690 775,975 875,021 908,124 o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) 385,090 643,950 (79,000) (79,000)
Reported EPS 89.77 114.69 129.33 134.22 Net change in cash 44,300 (155,491) 234,059 259,982
Adj. EPS 85.58 114.69 129.33 134.22
Adj. Free cash flow to firm (555,230) (731,781) 380,719 406,642
DPS 8.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 y/y Growth (341.4%) 31.8% (152.0%) 6.8%
Payout ratio 8.9% 8.7% 7.7% 7.5%
Shares outstanding 6,762 6,766 6,766 6,766
Balance Sheet FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Ratio Analysis FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Cash and cash equivalents 2,001,610 1,737,585 1,952,218 2,194,717 Gross margin 32.2% 52.8% 55.2% 57.3%
Accounts receivable 236,400 223,893 228,182 231,079 EBITDA margin 15.8% 14.4% 15.3% 15.3%
Inventories 1,077,780 1,469,206 1,390,688 1,384,271 EBIT margin 11.5% 10.9% 11.8% 11.8%
Other current assets 3,015,860 3,102,810 3,102,810 3,102,810 Net profit margin 8.3% 7.6% 8.2% 8.1%
Current assets 6,331,650 6,533,495 6,673,898 6,912,877
PP&E 8,003,040 9,307,499 9,867,169 10,378,682 ROE 7.8% 9.5% 9.8% 9.3%
LT investments - - - - ROA 4.1% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2%
Other non current assets 661,960 661,960 661,960 661,960 ROCE 5.8% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3%
Total assets 14,996,650 16,502,954 17,203,028 17,953,518 SG&A/Sales - - - -
Net debt/Equity NM 0.0 0.0 NM
Short term borrowings - - - - Net debt/EBITDA NM 0.2 0.0 NM
Payables - - - -
Other short term liabilities 1,828,500 1,982,538 1,954,251 1,943,277 Sales/Assets (x) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Current liabilities 1,828,500 1,982,538 1,954,251 1,943,277 Assets/Equity (x) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8
Long-term debt 3,757,260 4,401,210 4,322,210 4,243,210 Interest cover (x) NM 215.8 211.9 172.6
Other long term liabilities 521,050 521,050 521,050 521,050 Operating leverage 98.0% 82.5% 258.7% 104.2%
Total liabilities 6,106,810 6,904,798 6,797,511 6,707,537 Tax rate 20.8% 23.1% 23.3% 22.8%
Shareholders' equity 7,794,850 8,503,165 9,310,527 10,150,991 Revenue y/y Growth 49.9% 45.3% 5.4% 4.8%
Minority interests 1,094,990 1,094,990 1,094,990 1,094,990 EBITDA y/y Growth 36.8% 32.8% 11.8% 4.8%
Total liabilities & equity 14,996,650 16,502,954 17,203,028 17,953,518 EPS y/y Growth 33.1% 34.0% 12.8% 3.8%
Valuation FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
BVPS 1,152.73 1,256.75 1,376.08 1,500.30
P/E (x) 31.0 23.1 20.5 19.7
y/y Growth 11.3% 9.0% 9.5% 9.0%
P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.7 11.7 10.3 9.6
Net debt/(cash) (547,160) 360,815 67,182 (254,317)
Dividend Yield 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Based on closing price of 14 June 2022.
Note: Rs in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Mar. o/w - out of which
11

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts
are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies,
with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect the Research Analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the
Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the
Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA
requirements, that the Research Analyst’s analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst’s own opinion,
without undue influence or intervention.
All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector
Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.
Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to
Reliance Industries Ltd.
Manager or Co-manager: J.P. Morgan acted as manager or co-manager in a public offering of securities or financial instruments (as such
term is defined in Directive 2014/65/EU) of/for Reliance Industries Ltd within the past 12 months.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Reliance Industries Ltd.
Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as investment banking
clients: Reliance Industries Ltd.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies)
as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Reliance Industries Ltd.
Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients, and the
services provided were non-securities-related: Reliance Industries Ltd.
Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services
from Reliance Industries Ltd.
Potential Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking
services in the next three months from Reliance Industries Ltd.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from Reliance Industries Ltd.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Reliance Industries Ltd, if any.
Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium
reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies, and certain non-covered companies, by visiting https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures ,
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12

Date Rating Price (Rs) Price Target

(Rs)
19-Jan-20 N 1581.00 1,560
09-Mar-20 N 1271.00 1,305
13-Mar-20 N 1063.00 1,172
22-Apr-20 N 1237.35 1,375
16-May-20 NR 1459.40 --
17-Jun-20 N 1617.70 1,490
31-Jul-20 N 2108.85 1,860
09-Sep-20 N 2107.10 2,060
01-Nov-20 NR 2054.50 --
02-Nov-20 N 2054.50 2,060
01-Dec-20 N 1929.80 1,990
25-Feb-21 N 2061.00 2,055
24-Jun-21 N 2205.35 2,250
05-Oct-21 N 2556.15 2,465
16-Nov-21 N 2577.80 2,575
15-Jun-22 OW 2628.10 3,170
09-Aug-22 OW 2567.15 3,065
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average
total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect
this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.]
Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s
(or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this
stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable,
the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India)
and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country
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analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, https://www.jpmorganmarkets.com .
Coverage Universe: Parekh, Pinakin: ACC Limited (ACC.NS), Ambuja Cements Limited (ABUJ.NS), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)
(BPCL.NS), Coal India (COAL.NS), Dalmia Bharat (DALB.NS), GAIL India Ltd (GAIL.NS), Grasim Industries Ltd (GRAS.NS), Gujarat Gas
Ltd. (GGAS.NS), Hindalco Industries (HALC.NS), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) (HPCL.NS), Hindustan Zinc Limited
(HZNC.NS), Indian Oil Corporation (IOC.NS), Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (IGAS.NS), JSW Steel (JSTL.NS), Mahanagar Gas Ltd. (MGAS.NS),
NMDC (NMDC.NS), National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALU.NS), Nuvoco Vistas Corporation (NUVOCO.NS), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
(ONGC.NS), Petronet LNG Ltd. (PLNG.NS), Reliance Industries Ltd (RELI.BO), Shree Cement (SHCM.NS), Steel Authority of India Ltd
(SAIL.NS), Tata Steel Ltd (TISC.NS), UltraTech Cement Ltd (ULTC.NS), Vedanta Limited (VDAN.NS)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of October 01, 2022

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
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IB clients** 50% 46% 33%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 50% 38% 12%
IB clients** 70% 68% 50%
*Please note that the percentages might not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided
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13

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Completed 08 Dec 2022 07:32 PM HKT Disseminated 08 Dec 2022 07:34 PM HKT
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What are the key points discussed about Reliance Industries' earnings outlook?

What are the key points discussed about Reliance Industries' earnings outlook?

What does the analyst believe will be the main driver of Reliance Industries' stock price in 2023?

What does the analyst believe will be the main driver of Reliance Industries' stock price in 2023?

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

Reliance Industries Ltd

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Key Metrics (FYE Mar)

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

CY23 should be another year of relative

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

FY23 vs FY24: Earnings environment should improve

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

Figure 2: RIL segmental EBITDA (Rs bn)

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, company data

JFS to be a key stock price driver in CY23 even as Renewables

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

New Energy is a key focus area for RIL, but no immediate

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, company data

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, company data

Source: BSE, Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

Figure 13: RIL one year forward EV/EBITDA (x)

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Segment Highlights FY24 Per Share

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

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Reliance Industries Ltd: Summary of Financials

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Date Rating Price (Rs) Price Target

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of October 01, 2022

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of hemen.modi@ril.com.

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