Uniformity Topics
Uniformity Topics
Uniformity Topics
EP [φn ] ≤ α + .
EP [φn ] α .
but it turns out that the t-test suffers from the problem described above.
In fact, we can show that for every 0 < c < 1 and every sample size n there
1
exists a P = Pn,c such that
EP [φn ] ≥ c .
To see this, let n and c be given. Let P be the distribution that puts mass
1 − p on p and mass p on −(1 − p). We will specify p in a minute, but first
note that for such a distribution P all of the Xi are in fact equal to p > 0
with probability (1 − p)n . For such a sequence of observations, σ̂n = 0 and
√
nX̄n > 0, so φn = 1. The probability of rejection, EP [φn ], is therefore at
least (1 − p)n . Now all that remains is to choose p so that (1 − p)n = c; that
is, p = 1 − c1/n .
To rule this very disturbing possibility out, we need to ensure that the
convergence in (2) is uniform for P ∈ P0 ; that is,
EP [φn ] ≤ α + .
In the case of the t-test, the above example shows us that this is not true
for P = {P on R : 0 < σ 2 (P ) < ∞} and P0 = {P ∈ P : µ(P ) = 0}.
It is possible that this shortcoming is due to the t-test – – perhaps
there are other tests of the same null hypothesis that would behave more
reasonably. Unfortunately, we can show that this is not the case, provided
that P is “‘sufficiently rich”. Formally, we have the following result due to
Bahadur and Savage (1956):
2
(iii) P is convex in the sense that if P1 and P2 are in P, then γP1 +(1−γ)P2
is in P for γ ∈ [0, 1].
(a) Any test of H0 which has size α for P has power ≤ α for any alternative
P ∈ P.
(b) Any test of H0 which has power β against some alternative P ∈ P has
size ≥ β.
The proof of this result will follow from the following lemma:
Pm = {P ∈ P : µ(P ) = m} .
Then,
inf EP [φn ] and sup EP [φn ]
P ∈Pm P ∈Pm
are independent of m.
Proof: We show first that supP ∈Pm EP [φn ] does not depend on m. Let m
be given and choose m0 6= m. We wish to show that
1 1
m0 = (1 − )m + hj .
j j
3
Choose Hj so that µ(Hj ) = hj . Define
1 1
Gj = (1 − )Pj + Hj .
j j
We could replace φn with 1 − φn to establish that inf P ∈Pm EP [φn ] does not
depend on m.
The class of distributions with finite second moment satisfies the require-
ments of the theorem, as does the class of distributions with infinitely many
moments. Thus, the failure of the t-test is not special to the t-test; in this
setting, there simply exist no “reasonable” tests. But this does not mean
that all hope is lost. By restricting the class of distributions some, it is pos-
sible to construct reasonable tests about the mean. In fact, the t-test does
satisfy (3) for certain large classes of distributions that are somewhat smaller
than P0 . See Chapter 11 of Lehmann and Romano (2005) for details.