BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report 2023
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report 2023
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report 2023
Contents
Foreword by Chapter 1: Chapter 3:
Susan Taylor Martin, Navigating the journey ahead 7 Powering up the engine room 34
Chief Executive Officer, BSI 3
Leading from the front 9 Moving up the C-suite agenda 36
Executive Summary 4 The ‘end of the holiday’ 10 Demystifying the supply chain 39
Looking through the lenses 14 Three tech priorities for 2023 40
Conclusion 43
Understanding starts with The opportunity gap 41
Appendix 44 self-knowledge 17 Time to thrive 42
Two tracks to success 19
Cyber in the spotlight 20
The upside of risk 21
Chapter 2:
Handle with care 22
Foreword
When times are tough, it can be To help do this, we’ve asked a team of our
tempting to look down, even look away. experts to share their latest thoughts on
supply chain best practice, the innovation
But if you want to see the way forward, pipeline and key global trends. As you will read,
you need to look up – because having strong and agile leadership, a clearer
opportunity is always in front of us. focus on digital risk, improved self-knowledge,
The challenge is recognizing it. a keener radar for regulatory changes,
a tailored approach and a faster adoption
At BSI we don’t claim to have all the answers, of emerging technology at the top of an
but we want to be agents of positive change organization’s ‘to do’ list for 2023 could really
and are committed to collaborating with like- help the transition from survive to thrive.
minded organizations to build a better global
supply chain. Together. We hope that you will find these insights
engaging and action-provoking and I look
There is no doubt that 2022 was another forward to building on them with you over
turbulent year with the convergence of multiple the year ahead. Susan Taylor Martin,
risks affecting all organizations. Our collective Chief Executive Officer, BSI
task now is to move beyond the storm and
successfully chart a course which leads to
a more sustainable future.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 4
Executive summary
Organizations approaching 2022 with
hopes of a calmer period of readjustment
and realignment for the global supply chain 01 02 03
didn’t have to wait long for a rude awakening.
Just weeks into the year the conflict in Ukraine Strong and agile leadership is Organizations need to urgently Improved self-knowledge is
intensified rumbling geopolitical tensions and required to reset a commercial address their digital risk. the key to better supply chain
triggered wide scale price inflation and a cost- strategy for the next stage of understanding.
of-living crisis that is still exerting a vice-like Recent BSI client research of over 150 clients
the supply chain journey.
grip on many of the world’s biggest economies. revealed that 73% of organizations were Organizations investing in technology
Include a succession of devastating climate This direction has to come from the top significantly concerned about the risks posed that can put them on the front foot when
events, an acceleration of regulatory activity and factor in space for organizations by the accelerated digitization of supply it comes to their supply chain environment
and the lingering effects of COVID-19 and it to manage disruption effectively. chain, but that not one organization had are taking positive and beneficial action.
all adds up to a highly challenging landscape. resolved the risks.
Advisor profiles
Global Managing Director, Principal Consultant, Practice Director, Practice Director for Security
Digital Trust Consulting Services, BSI Supply Chain Security, BSI Sustainability, BSI and Resilience, BSI
Mark has over 30 years of expertise David is a senior international risk Ryan has worked with organizations Tony is an experienced supply chain risk
in cybersecurity, data privacy and business management executive and team leader across multiple regions and industries consultant with a broad range of specialized
resilience and has previously held global with 25 years of corporate and operational to design creative solutions to drive skill sets, including conducting end-to-end,
leadership roles across industry and experience and an exceptional track record organizational improvement, improve upon enterprise-level supply chain risk assessments
professional services. He brings a wealth of of delivering enterprise solutions on major social/environmental impacts, and mitigate for clients and their supply chain partners.
knowledge on the expanding cybersecurity critical infrastructure and supply chain and remedy risks. He leads BSI’s strategy As a member of BSI’s Advisory team,
marketplace as organizations grapple with projects globally. He has a proven and to align their standards, services, technology he designs and implements supply chain
digital transformation and addressing new demonstrable track record of developing and global resources to the UN Sustainable security programmes and management
technology that brings new business and successfully implementing high-level Development Goals. He and his team work systems. Tony has also designed loss
opportunities and risks, with a sharp focus supply chain security strategies and with their clients to develop and deliver prevention and security assessments,
on proportional and pragmatic response solutions for global corporations, aimed innovative approaches related to clean mapped security and business continuity
based on his practical industry leadership at mitigating political, strategic and energy and climate action, circular economy risk in supply chains for Fortune 500
experience. Mark is internationally recognized operational risks to position his client and waste, recent work in global supply companies, and assisted in the successful
as a leading authority on the management organizations as recognized international chains, among other challenging areas. implementation of supply chain security
of digital risk, presenting a focus on the way leaders in supply chain security initiatives. procedures, including for CTPAT certification.
technology can enable business strategies.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 6
Advisor profiles
Additional Contributors:
Erica Bressner
Intelligence Analyst over Europe
Marianna Sanford
Intelligence Analyst over North America
& Central America
Chapter 1:
Navigating the
journey ahead
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 8
cargo theft and petty crime. But, like most United States of America
on the worker.
The State Workers Association
(ATE) went on strike over
wage complaints. There are
large-scale strikes throughout
Truckers went on
Top Industries for Labour Strikes in 2022 the region over the cost of fuel,
inflation, and cost of living. South Africa strike in Eastern India to
Workers at Durban Port went on demand an increase in
strike demanding higher wages to haulage rates to combat
Agriculture & Prepared Products 31.3% Argentina reflect global inflation, resulting in rising fuel prices and
Petroleum, Natural Gas & Minerals 18% staff shortages and port shutdown. inflation, disrupting port
operations in Chennai.
Automotive & Aerospace 10.2%
Base Metals 8.6%
Industrial & Manufacturing Materials 8.2%
Consumer Products & Mass Merchandising 7.7%
Other 16% Sources: Countries Experiencing Major Labour Strikes in 2022 as of Nov 22, 2022. Copyright BSI 2022.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 12
As referenced earlier in this report, the war in However, even without these mandatory gas
Ukraine has triggered rapid global price inflation cuts, rising energy prices have already disrupted Industrial Producer Prices in Europe 2020-2022,
and created major significant shortages in food industrial and agricultural production in Europe. unadjusted data (2015 = 100)
and other major products such as neon gas Faced with these high energy prices, many
which is critical for the manufacture of industries, including chemicals, automotive and
semiconductors. And the ongoing conflict is farming, and particularly those that are energy 180
driving an energy crisis with serious implications intensive, are reducing production or closing 160
for supply chain resilience and cargo security plants entirely. Again, these production cuts 140
– this needs to be at the forefront of any supply and closures may have significant downstream
chain professional’s mind as we progress impacts throughout Europe. 120
through winter. 100
80
The European Union (EU) has already called for
60
a voluntary 15% reduction in gas usage from its
member states. As part of the Save Gas for a 40
Safe Winter Plan (the Plan), the EU may declare 20
a mandatory EU-wide gas reduction of 15%
0
if a substantial risk of a severe shortage
occurs. These reductions would likely impact
20
20
20
20
20
22
22
22
2
21
21
21
21
21
l2
l2
l2
non-critical industrial sectors as individual
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consumers are considered ‘protected
consumers’. However, this 15% reduction European Union Total Industry European Union Industry Excluding Energy
could equate to extended lead times on
various products, even critical ones, due to
the interconnectedness of European industrial Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14698168/4-02092022-AP-EN.pdf/b3b1c540-b50f-1323-8f27-13143574871c
supply chains.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 13
Pelli points out that one of the effects of all The last twelve months have also demonstrated
this disruption is a clearer understanding from that the US and parts of Europe don’t always
national governments of the impact of supply have the best infrastructure to deal with
chain on national interests. This is leading to fluctuating demand. This has started to trigger
new legislation such as the CHIPS Act in the government investment as we’ve seen with
US and GDPR regulations across the EU, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, a clear and
a combination of which are placing greater powerful indicator that many organizations
accountability on suppliers and purchasers are not as resilient as perhaps they thought
and driving higher awareness of privacy they were. In Europe, areas such as critical
issues across the board. infrastructure are having new regulation applied
due to shortcomings in the infrastructure and
Mark Brown, Global Managing Director, the ability to service disparate supply chains
Digital Trust Consulting, BSI, recommends that: – EU NIS 2 is real and will force greater focus
“Leaders would be well advised to stay close on critical infrastructure resilience and its
to the shifting regulatory landscape and make impact downstream to resilience across
sure their voices are proactively being heard supply ecosystems.
in the process.”
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 14
Source: Notable Cybercrimes Targeting Supply Chains in 2022, 2022 Ports and Terminals Cybersecurity Survey, Jones Walker LLP
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 15
8.5
8.3
2022 8.6
7.9
likely to be paid a ransom given the impact it 8
7.5
7.0
has not just on a single company but on a
6.8
6.2
4.7
whole ecosystem of companies within a supply 2021
6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
chain, making it more likely that the attacked
5.0
4.2
company will pay the ransom to recover as 2020 1.2 4
quickly as possible.
2.6
2019 1.8
“For the last twelve months, it seems the 2
1.7
1.4
supply chain can’t keep up with an uncertain
market and this unbalanced supply and demand 2018 2.4
between countries has driven product
21
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21
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21
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21
22
22
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shortages, delays and made cargo susceptible
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2017 2.1
to tampering and theft. In turn, from a macro-
economic perspective, this surge in demand,
coupled with government policies and 2016 1.3
extraneous events like the conflict in Ukraine,
are causing added inflationary pressures. 2015 0.1
This is driving, for example, inventory issues
as we’ve seen with the US warehouse situation,
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
or greater labour unrest as we’ve seen with
the labour strikes across the globe which are
Sources: Consumer Price Index Historical Data in the United States from 2015 - Q3 2022 © Copyright BSI 2022.
further exacerbated by the rising cost of living
and the loss of purchasing power for basic
goods like food, fuel and shelter.”
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 16
21
21
22
21
22
2
2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Source: Cargo Thieves Increasingly Steal Fuel Products in 2022, © Copyright BSI 2022
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 17
Like Yarbrough, Sanford is convinced that risk of theft or smuggling within the supply 25 24.4% 24.2%
strong leadership is the key to navigating chain heightens this risk of tampering
this complex web: “If organizations want to along various points of the supply chain, 19.8%
20
understand the challenge, they need to start whether it be in-transit, in a warehouse 18.6%
cloud computing, information security Pelli agrees and thinks organizations 12.8%
and predictive analysis which build a more still have work to do when it comes to 11.0%
10.5%
layered approach to security to prevent better understanding their suppliers: 10
9.0%
risk and put organizations on the front “The relationship really starts with that 7.1% 7.2%
foot. Of course, to do this successfully, first initial mapping, and you’d be surprised 6.3% 6.3%
implemented – if not, it can actually have really know all the in-between points from
the reverse effect and increase the the factory to the final point of distribution.”
digital risk. Hijacking Theft from Facility Theft from
Container/Trailer
Theft of Vehicle Theft from Vehicle Theft by Employee Other
“Ultimately, you should treat an organization Source: Cargo Theft Types 2021 vs 2022, © Copyright BSI 2022
like a person – so, as I would advise a
person to tackle uncertainty with self-
knowledge, I would advise an organization to
do so similarly. From an internal perspective,
that’s about understanding your tools and
knowing your supply chain better, whereas
from an external standpoint, it means
learning your environment and understanding
why and how supply chains are adapting to
the evolving security, technology and
sustainability landscape, such as having a
fully comprehensive understanding of the
entirety of your supply chain.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 1: Navigating the journey ahead 18
Chapter 2:
Handle with care
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 2: Handle with care 23
It’s important to remember that this pressure Rodriguez reports ‘growing pains’ as
is being exerted at a time when organizations organizations adapt to these challenges but
are trying to hit ambitious targets for is keen to stress now is not the time to take
renewable energy. It’s an aspiration shared by stock: “It feels like we’re at a critical point and
many but delivering it is easier said than done although it can be tempting to reach for the
against a backdrop of global supply chain pause button, leaders have a great opportunity
disruption. Whether it’s the US or Europe, to press on as we progress through 2023.
we simply don’t have the capacity to These climate, sustainability and human rights
accelerate the transition. It’s not like flicking issues have real tangible business implications
a switch – consider the example of Vietnam and the organizations who integrate solutions
where there was huge investment in solar to these issues into their operations early are
power but because the government hadn’t the ones who will best adapt to the disruptions
invested enough in connecting these new down the line and ultimately thrive.”
solar power grids to the main grid, the country
actually ended up having to vastly reduce its
solar efforts.
One size does not fit all Another sector with its own set of
circumstances is fashion. As outlined above,
As we assess the way forward, it’s instructive the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act has
to note that different sectors face different changed the landscape significantly with many
challenges, so a tailored approach is required. organizations now spending a huge amount of
For example, a feature of the healthcare time trying to source a credible paper trail for
industry is single-use plastic items so while US customs. The legislation is, of course, an
the priority is patient safety, there are also important accelerator, but at the same time it’s
considerations around the disposal of creating additional workload for organizations
medical waste, especially in such a highly already buckling under multiple pressure points.
regulated sector.
In general terms, B2B companies are feeling the
In the food sector, there’s a clear understanding pressure from their B2B customers, specifically
of the GHG impact and a desire to reduce around Scope 3 emissions which, as we’ve
emissions and promote carbon neutrality. seen, are more difficult to report. If an
But at the same time there’s also a recognition organization wants to promote a carbon neutral
that food production often involves a large and product, for example, their ability to deliver a
complex supply chain with tiers of suppliers that lifecycle assessment rests on full disclosure
end up at an aggregator who may be dealing from the supplier around its components or
with hundreds of smallholder farms in a materials. It’s a pressure point and the pressure
particular region. On top of that, crop yield is building.
climate risks pose a unique challenge for the
food sector.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 2: Handle with care 31
No time to lose
“When it comes to addressing
Lynch is encouraged to see evidence of risk, there is no time to lose,
increased awareness and action but calls for
more urgency: “Legislation is starting to make and we need to be reaching for
a major difference across the board and I’m the accelerator not the brake –
seeing other positive signs such as a significant we need to upskill a lot of people
uptick in outreach from private equity firms
in the last year – this represents a major across many different functions
step forward. within organizations.”
“But at the same time, I’ve also detected quite Ryan Lynch, Practice Director,
a bit of ‘brake-pumping’ with higher interest Sustainability, BSI
rates and a volatile stock market. This is
absolutely not the moment to do that.
Source: Various Types of Natural Disasters Cause Supply Chain Disruptions Throughout 2022, © Copyright BSI 2022
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 2: Handle with care 33
Chapter 3:
Powering up the
engine room
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 3: Powering up the engine room 35
Technology is arguably at its very best when “It’s probably the most important investment
it helps us do the important things better. decision organizations can make today so “Technology is the bridge that can
And in early 2023 there are very few things getting it right is essential and getting it right
more important than the ability to transform depends on being properly informed – best-in-
take organizations from survive
your organization. class technology and first-mover advantage to thrive – the stronger we build it,
will always put you ahead of your competitors.” the better the prospects for 2023
This is where technology can act as a
gamechanger, as David Fairnie, Principal As referenced earlier in this report, technology
and beyond. And if you don’t build
Consultant, Supply Chain Security, BSI, says: needs to be properly deployed to maximize its that bridge, then you’re in danger
“Technology is the bridge that can take impact – if organizations and their supply chain of slipping into the water.”
organizations from survive to thrive – the simply rush headlong into tech-powered
stronger we build it, the better the prospects decisions without due consideration of the David Fairnie, Principal Consultant,
for 2023 and beyond. And if you don’t build associated risks, they could easily create the Supply Chain Security, BSI
that bridge, then you’re in danger of slipping opposite effect and undermine the advantages
into the water. technology can deliver.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 3: Powering up the engine room 36
However, the speed of digital transformation Brown expands on this point: “Your digital
brings challenges and risks as well as supply chain is beyond your control and that
opportunity as demonstrated by a recent BSI is a massive shift from the traditional state of
survey of over 150 clients. 73% of respondents affairs. The key is: Are you aware of the risks
stated that the Chief Risk Officer (CRO)/ that your digital supply chain presents to you
Chief Operations Officer (COO) was significantly and what are you doing about it? Maintaining
concerned about the risks posed by the a level of control can be achieved through two
digitization of supply chain, but that not one routes – one is technology and the other is
organization had resolved the risks, generally data. And the key to this is IoT, or technology,
because it was largely outside their control. which allows you to move from an annual
The manner in which procurement and supply safety check to continuous assurance over
contracts had been signed did not allow for your supply chain.
the consideration of digital risk. In the vast
majority of cases, there was also no provision “It does this by gathering data at volumes
for ongoing and continual measurement of that previously weren’t able to be collected,
digital operational resilience within the value which can be analysed to provide leading
chain of the organization or the supplier of rather than lagging indicators of forthcoming
digital services enabling that value chain. and future risk in the supply chain. The fact
that digital supply chain is beyond your
perimeter, and the fact you can leverage
technology and data, means it is no longer
just a technology issue – the Chief Risk Officer
and the Chief Operations Officer are now the
people who need to own the digital risk of
supply chain. It can no longer be viewed solely
as a procurement exercise and extends well
beyond anything that can reside in the remit
of the technology team.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 3: Powering up the engine room 38
This again comes back to the role of innovation were among the top product types stolen
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overall in Europe, accounting for 14%, 12%,
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got a mobile smart telephone, so how do we
deliver a solution which gets the best out of Partly as a result of the prevailing economic Source:Top Product Types for Theft in Europe in 2021 and 2022, © Copyright BSI 2022
the limited technology and infrastructure they conditions, we’re also seeing wide scale
do have? It’s all about keeping it simple.” industrial action causing major disruption at
ports across the US, UK and other markets.
As we’ve already seen, these key nodes
within the supply chain are all inter-connected.
Fairnie believes the ‘reconfiguration of global
supply chains’ is going to be disruptive for
at least the next two years as demand and
capacity continue to prove volatile.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Chapter 3: Powering up the engine room 42
Time to thrive
Conclusion
For decades, we were in a world where supply As we’ve explored in this report, there are
chains were predictable and the cost of so many potential disruptions and so many
labour, production and shipping was extremely changing regulations that it can feel daunting,
effective and efficient. That’s no longer the but there is a way through it if you proactively
case and all of these variables are now at a manage risks, anticipate risks and de-risk your
As we have seen throughout higher risk than ever before, particularly when supply chain. Today, organizations can
this report, there’s a great you consider today’s pressures of climate position themselves as thriving leaders by
opportunity out there – but how change, major regulatory upheaval and promoting human rights and ensuring that
‘just in time’ delivery. The reliability of supply responsibility and sustainability are part of a
do organizations grab it and chain is completely different now. But this company’s mission. We’re seeing more and
make the transition from survive is the backdrop to the opportunities in 2023 more major global organizations embrace this
to thrive mode? and beyond. new approach and ultimately this is what will
lead to a more secure, sustainable and resilient
Yarbrough closes with an upbeat assessment: supply chain.”
“Today, resilience is mandatory. Traditionally,
we needed to convince organizations that
disruption could happen to their supply chain
and really affect their business in a negative
way. What we’ve seen over the last three
years is that disruption is inevitable, and that
resilience is mandatory if you want to thrive.
To appreciate this and unlock the opportunity
it presents, you need top-down buy-in.
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Appendix 44
Appendix
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Appendix 45
Top Commodities Stolen in 2022 Top Modalities of Theft Top Cargo Theft Types in 2022
3.6% 2022
Food and Beverage 17% Other Theft from Facility 26%
4.0%
Fuel 9% 2021 Hijacking 17%
Agriculture 9% 2.2% Theft from Container/Trailer 12.8%
Rail 3.6% 2022
Electronics 9% 1.8% Other Theft of Vehicle 11%
4.0%
Automotive 8% 2021 Theft of Employee Belongings/
30.3%
Construction Materials 8% Facility
2.2%
Truck parts/Cash 7.5%
29.4%
Rail
Other 40% 1.8% Theft from Vehicle 7.2%
63.9% Other 18.6%
Truck
30.3% 64.8%
Facility
Source: Top Modalities of Theft, © Copyright BSI 2022
29.4%
63.9%
Truck
64.8%
Top Commodities Stolen 2021 vs 2022
40.6%
Other 44.1%
8.1%
Automotive
5.7%
9.3% 2022
Fuel
6.5%
3.6% 2021 2022
Other 7.7%
Construction Materials 4.0%
8.7% 2021
Source: Top Commodities Stolen in 2022, © Copyright BSI 2022
8.7%
Electronics 2.2% 9.5%
Rail
1.8%
8.9%
Agriculture 11.6%
Source: Top Cargo Theft Types in 2022, © Copyright BSI 2022
16.7% 30.3%
Food and BeverageFacility 13.9% 29.4%
Source: Top Commodities Stolen 2021 vs 2022, © Copyright BSI 2022
63.9%
Truck
64.8%
BSI Supply Chain Risk Insights Report January 2023 Appendix 46
Germany
France
36.7%
Nigeria
25.4%
Brazil
Indonesia
10.5% 9.8%
6.3% 5.9% 5.5%
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