ANNUAL OUTLOOK 2023

Strictly Confidential: Only for the use of institutional investors. Not for the use of retail investors. Not for onward 1
forwarding.
US Economy
Global Economy

October 2020 2
West Is Going Through Tough Days

A Tsunami Of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind On Energy Bills

UK Supermarkets Are Throwing Away Expiration Dates On Food Items

Nearly Half Of UK Families Are Left With Less Than £3 A Week

Swiss National Bank Loses Nearly $ 143 Billion In First Nine Months

LUK Oil Board Chairman Dies After Falling From Hospital Window
Source: bqprime, bnnbloomberg.ca, businesstoday.in, themoscowtimes.com 3
Fed Tightening Hasn’t Curtailed Inflation, Till Now
Fed is tightening at the fastest pace Inflation rising faster than wage growth

US Average Hourly Earnings YoY

10 US Consumer Price Index YoY
US CPI
YoY 7.7
5
4.7

2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
2021
2021
2022
-5

Corporate profitability steadfast Yield curve is indicating recession

4
Source: WSJ Article, Compound , CharlieBilello , Datastream, Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
Fed Caught Between Devil & Deep Sea
Difficult to remain higher for longer

Inflation Recession
Fed

Fed has withdrawn liquidity of $400 Bn Liquidity : Fed Added $4.8tn, Has Withdrawn $ 400bn
US Federal Reserve - Total Assets
10.0 Raging Inflation 8.6
9.0 9.0 Fed Balance Sheet
8.9
8.8 Pandemic
8.7 5.0 Financial Crisis 4.2
8.6
8.5 8.6
0.0
Mar-22
Mar-22
Jan-22

Nov-22
Jan-22
Feb-22

Jun-22
Jun-22

Aug-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
May-22

Jul-22

Oct-22
Oct-22
Apr-22

Nov-16

Nov-19
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15

Nov-17
Nov-18

Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Source: : Federal Reserve, Haver, UBS calculations , Compound , CharlieBilello, : Bloomberg, KMAMC. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
5
Inflation & Market Events Needs To Be Watched

Can Inflation Rapidly Fall Like Money Supply Growth Markets Worried about Lehman Moment

70 Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse (RHS)

60

50

40

30

20

10

May-10

Jul-14

Jul-16
Mar-04

Apr-08
Apr-06
Feb-00

Feb-02

Jun-12

Aug-18

Sep-20

Sep-22
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 6
Depression is Grabbing the Globe

Global antidepressant users per 1,000 people

Source: OECD, CDC 7

Oasis In The Global Desert Till Now
Massive Sandstrom
Indian Economy Blowing Outside

8
India is Doing Well Despite Shocks

Year Crude
Hit $100
India

2008 33% of Brazil + Russia

2022 100% of Brazil + Russia

Source: Internal analysis, Bloomberg 9
India – The Only Country To Improve Debt Ratio
Debt levels and change since 2008 (as percentage of GDP)
Core debt of non-financial sector
Change since Q1 2008
(Q1 2022, % OF GDP)
Household Corporate Government Total Household Corporate Government Total
Debt/GDP (Avg %) 61 84 104 249 4 10 48 62
Australia 118 64 57 239 11 -13 49 47
Brazil 38 54 88 180 20 23 26 69
Mainland China 62 157 70 289 43 62 41 147
France 65 166 129 360 19 61 61 141
Germany 56 73 74 203 -4 5 9 10
India 37 51 85 173 -6 -12 11 -6
Italy 43 70 154 267 5 -8 58 55
Japan 60 119 249 428 2 20 82 104
South Korea 104 117 45 266 34 29 23 86
Mexico 16 24 40 80 2 10 20 32
South Africa 34 34 69 137 -10 -1 44 33
Spain 57 98 154 309 -25 -28 114 61
UK 84 70 119 273 -10 -15 79 54
US 76 82 124 282 -23 11 61 49
Source: IF, BIS, IMF, National Sources, Note data taken from end- Q1 2008 and end-Q1 2022 10
US Inflation Continues To Be Higher Than India

%
9.5 9.1
8.5 8.6 8.5
8.5 8.3 8.3 8.2
7.9
7.7
7.5
7.5 7.8
7.0
6.8 7.4
7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
6.5 6.2 6.7 6.8

5.4 6.0 6.1

5.5
5.7

4.5 4.9
4.4 4.5 India CPI US CPI
3.5
Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 11

India’s Decade or Century?

Chengdu Ho Chi Minh

Bengaluru Hyderabad
Guangzhou Bengaluru
Shenzhen Delhi
Shanghai Jakarta
Beijing Mumbai
Hong Kong Kuala Lampur
Delhi Bangkok
Tianjin Chennai
Ho Chi Minh Kolkata

Source: Oxford Economics 12

Keep Faith In India

Progress Indicators 2014 2022 Progress Indicators 2014 2022

Economy Size (GDP) 10 5 Number of Unicorns* 4 110

Share in Global GDP* 2.6% 3.4% India’s weight in BRICS* 14% 29%

Share in Global Trade &

2.0% 2.2% India’s weight in EM* 7% 15%
Services

Share in Global FDI Climate change

2.1% 6.7% 31 10
Flows# Performance

Auto Production 7 4 Global Innovation Index 83 46

Steel Production 4 2 WGI Governance Index 103 49

Mobile phone Ease of doing business 142 63

12 2
Production
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, IMF, UNCTAD, CB Insights. Numbers mentioned in percentages are of 2022 & others are ranks
* Value as of 2022. #Value of 2020
13
13
Amul : Numero Uno, Local to Global

By 2047, our centenary year, we estimate that Amul

group should be able achieve a turnover of Rs 18

Amul lakh crore ($ 220 billion), from Rs 61,000 crore ($

7.4 billion) recorded in the previous financial year

Excerpt from Amul Annual Report-FY 22

Source: Amul Co-operative Society Annual Report 14

States = India

Maharashtra’s GDP today is equal to Indian GDP in 2005.

Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Karnataka’s GDP today is equal to Indian GDP in 2000.

2005

Maharashtra

2000

Karnataka Tamil Nadu Gujarat

India
Source: Mapsofindia.com 15
Indian Trade Deficit Is A Challenge

Source: CEIC, IDFC First Bank economic research. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 16
Manufacturing Sector Fuelled By Rising Imports ?

150 142.7
Mfg Import/Mfg GVA
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

May-19
May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-20

Jan-21
May-21

May-22
Sep-22
Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-22
Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Source: Bloomberg, Elara Capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 17
Export Growth Needed To De-Risk India

Share of Indian exports to world exports (YoY, %)

Source: WTO, Phillip Capital India Research. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 18
PLIs– Can It Develop Manufacturing & Grow Exports ?

PLI schemes announced and total outlay (INR bn)

Source: PIB, Relevant ministries, Phillip Capital India Research 19

Consumption Has Started Reviving

Urban Consumption Rural consumption

Source: Elara Capital 20

Capex To Depreciation At All Time Low
Capex to Depreciation
(All non financial listed firms)

128%

Source: Bloomberg 21
Companies Are Beginning To Invest
Expected To Rise To 18-Year High

Source: Budget Documents, Morgan Stanley Research 22

India
The Office – And Factory – To The World
India's Export Market Share To Increase To 4.5% By 2031

Source: WTO, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates 23

 Debt Market Outlook
Debt Market Outlook

24
Rates To Peak By 1QCY23
Rate Cut By 4QCY23

Market Pricing in of Fed Funds Rate

5.50

5.00 4.87 4.92 4.90 4.86

4.71 4.77
4.62
Implied Policy Rate (%)

4.50 4.35 4.43

4.25

4.00

3.84
3.50

3.00

Jun-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Jul-23

Sep-23
Feb-23
Feb-23

Aug-23
Aug-23
Sep-23

Oct-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Dec-22

Dec-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Jan-23

Mar-23
Mar-23

Jan-24
Jan-24
Nov-22

Apr-23
Apr-23
May-23
May-23
May-23

Nov-23
Nov-23
Nov-23
Given the higher inflation, fed hiked rate by 75 bps in Nov 22 and expect to hike by another 50 bps in upcoming Dec 22 meeting

As on 30th Nov 2022. Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 25
India’s Real Rates > US Real Rates

% Spread = India Real Rate – US Real Rate (%, LHS) USD/INR

Inverted
7.00 40
45
5.00
50
3.00
Current 55
1.00 Scenario 60

-1.00 65
70
-3.00 USD/INR (RHS)
Taper 75
-5.00 Tantrum 80
-7.00 85

During taper tantrum in 2013, US real rates were higher than India’s real rates. Hence risk of capital outflow was high.

26
As on 30th Nov 22. Real rate = 10-year Gilt – Inflation (CPI). RBI reference rates are taken for USD/INR exchange rate. Source: Bloomberg, RBI. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
Surplus Liquidity Declined Significantly

in % in INR billion
8.5 10-Year 10000
Surplus Liquidity - RHS
Government
8.0 8000
Bond Yield - LHS
7.5 6000

7.0 4000
1956.6
6.5 2000

6.0 0

5.5 -2000
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
As RBI remains focused on withdrawal of accommodation, banking liquidity while in surplus is likely to remain
relatively tight. 27
Source: Bloomberg. As on 30 Nov 2022.
Triggers For Next Year

• US Fed Rate
-Market pricing in Terminal rate ~ 5 %. Last Hike in 1H CY 23 and First cut in the Q4 CY 23.
-The yield curve is inverted and impacting the Dollar Index.

• FY24 Borrowing programme

In Rs Tn
FY 23 FY24
GDP @12% Nominal Growth 272 305
Fiscal Deficit Centre 6.4% 5.8% -6.2%
Net Borrowing 11.0 11.5
Gross borrowing 14.3 15.0
SDL Gross (estimates) 7.5 8.5
Total Gross Supply 21.8 23.5
*Excluding T bill

• Liquidity situation
- Core Liquidity is ~Rs 2.5 lakhs. Expected to Change with FX flows till March 2023.
- Liquidity is expected to remain tight in CY23.
- RBI will need to assure the market about adequate liquidity in CY 23. in absence of FX Flows, OMO purchases will
be required.
• Bond Inclusion:
- In Case G secs are included in Global Bond Index. It could result in additional demand of 15-20 B$ as well as
liquidity
Source: KMAMC, internal analysis 28
Equity Markets
29
India Has Delivered Far Better Return Than Its Peers

Total Returns till 30/11/2022 CAGR Returns till 30/11/2022

(in USD terms) (in USD terms)
MSCI Indices
2014 2010 2003 2014 2010 2003

India 110% 98% 1162% 9% 5% 14%

China 25% 30% 639% 3% 2% 11%

Brazil 3% -27% 710% 0.3% -2% 11%

South Africa 4% 32% 477% 0.5% 2% 9%

Emerging Market 24% 34% 509% 2% 2% 10%

Source: Bloomberg, starting date of every period is 1st April 30

India's Valuation Premium Over EM Is Very High

Optical Real
86%
MSCI India PE Vs MSCI EM PE ( TTM)
45 80%
40
>139%
35 premium 60%
30

25 40%

20

15 20%

10

5 0%

Nov-10

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

India's 12M fwd PE premium to EM 5 year average:46%

MSCI India Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index +1SD -1SD
5 yr median 31
Source: Bloomberg, UBS
Domestic Investors Are Emerging As Key Drivers
FPIs Find It Easy To Exit And Difficult To Enter

Net investments (Rs in Crore)

Period Nifty Change (%)
FPIs Mutual Funds

Oct 2021 – Jun 2022 -10% -2,55,879 2,96,384

Jul 2022 – Nov 2022 19% 83,373 20,573

Source: Bloomberg 32
 13
18
23
28

8
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09

Source: Motilal Oswal

Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13

Average: 18.5x
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
NIFTY P/E (x) - 1 Year Forward

Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
19.9

1.5
2.3
3.0
3.8
4.5

Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Equity Valuations At Premium To Fair Value

Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Average: 2.6x

Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
NIFTY P/B (x) - 1 Year Forward

Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
33

Nov-22
3.2
Valuations Are At Premium

World Market Cap to GDP Ratio is 103% Equities At Expensive Levels Relative To Bonds As Well

GFC: Peak of 149% in Dec’07

112 110
103
Lowe 104
95 Average of 79%
88
82 83 81 83
79 80
71 69
64 66
55 56
52

FY23E
FY17

FY22
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16

FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21

Source: Motilal Oswal, Nuvama research, Bloomberg 34

 Mar-20 Mar-20

18.4

13.3%
May-20 May-20

13.3
Jul-20

18.6%
Jul-20
Sep-20

17.7
Sep-20

Source: Motilal Oswal

In Q2FY23

Nov-20
Nov-20
20.2
Jan-21

21.6% 21.9%
Jan-21
Mar-21
Mar-21
May-21
May-21 Jul-21
Jul-21 Sep-21
23.2 20.7 23.3
Net Sales (INR Tn)

Sep-21 EBITDA Margin (%) Nov-21

25.9

Nov-21 Jan-22

Jan-22 Mar-22
May-22
Mar-22
19.6% 20.9% 19.8% 19.1% 17.9%

Jul-22
May-22
Sep-22
28.6 29.3 30.2

Jul-22
Sep-22
15.8% 15.7%

Mar-20
2.4

Mar-20 May-20
1.0
2.5

May-20 Jul-20
0.7

Jul-20 Sep-20
3.8

Sep-20
1.7

Nov-20
4.4

Nov-20 Jan-21
2.0

Jan-21
Mar-21
4.5

Mar-21
2.3

May-21
Inflation Drove Top Line And Impacted Bottom Line

4.3

May-21
Jul-21
1.8

Jul-21
PAT (INR Tn)

Sep-21
4.6
EBITDA (INR Tn)

Sep-21
2.4

Nov-21
Nov-21
5.0

2.5

Jan-22
Jan-22
Mar-22
5.1

Mar-22
2.8

May-22 May-22
4.6

2.2

Jul-22 Jul-22
35

Sep-22 Sep-22
4.7

2.3
India Vs. China

CY23 China allocation can be tactical CY23 India allocation can be

due to valuation strategic due to growth

Source: scmp.com Source : business-standard.com 36

Be Ready For Volatility

37
Investment Themes

Capex Cycle Govt Focus on Real Estate & Home

Revival Defence, Railways & Improvement
Infra

Penetrating
Rural Revival Consolidating Industry Capitalizing on Global
Financial
Leadership Supply Chain Shifts
Services
Source: Internal Analysis 38
Theme 1: Capex Cycle Revival

India Is At The Cusp Of A Multi-year Capex Cycle

Rs trn Public Capex Private Capex
100.0
91.9
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
90.0
82.8
80.0

70.0 66.4
58.9 56.4
60.0
52.7
48.1
50.0
39.0 44.1
40.0 35.8 36.0 36.7
31.1 32.0 27.5
29.0 28.8
30.0 25.5 21.3
20.7 22.4 22.0 22.1 17.8
20.0 17.7 18.2 18.6 17.8 19.4
13.2 12.8 14.4 14.5 16.7 30.1
35.5
9.8 11.6 13.6
10.0 4.6 6.1
8.2
8.7 7.0 8.2 10.7 17.7 20.6
22.3 22.4
3.7 3.3 3.6 3.8 6.2 13.8 13.9 14.3
5.2 10.4 11.0 11.7
1.8 1.3 1.5
2.1 1.8 2.3
2.3
3.5
2.5 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.8 6.2 7.0 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.8
- 1.9 1.9 2.0
F2000

F2001

F2002

F2003

F2004

F2005

F2006

F2007

F2008

F2009

F2010

F2011

F2012

F2013

F2014

F2015

F2016

F2017

F2018

F2019

F2020

F2021

F2022
F2023

F2024

F2025

F2026

F2027
E

E
Source: Morgan Stanley 39
Theme 2: Domestic Focus On Defence, Railways & Infra

24% Centre Budgetary Capex Allocation

Centre Budgetary capex allocation (INR b) Gr (% YoY)

CAGR - 23% 41% (INR bn)

27%
17% 800,000
9%
-8% 700,000

600,000

426
263

308

336

603

750
500,000

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22RE FY23BE 400,000

State Budgetary capex allocation (INR b) Gr (% YoY) 20%

31% 300,000

19%
CAGR - 15%
13% 200,000
-4%
-17%
100,000
CAGR 29%
-
431

487

578

554

723

867
FY18 FY23BE

Roads & bridges Railways Defence Others

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22RE FY23BE
40
Source: Budget document , KIE
Theme 3: Real Estate & Home Improvement

Affordability at favorable levels Inventory correction underway

All-India Residential
Launch (LHS) Sales (LHS) Developers
Inventory (RHS)
1,000 1,800

1,600
800 1,400
Cement 1,200
600
1,000

800
400
600
Electrical 400
200
Products 200

0 -

2015
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
Building Materials/
Home
improvements
• Growing income has kept Affordability index flat despite increase in home prices
• Organized players will continue to gain market share
EPC
• Rise in inflation and interest rate can impact near term momentum Contractors

Source: HDFC Ltd, KIE, & Internal analysis 41

Theme 3: Real Estate & Home Improvement

Mid & Late cycle proxy to Real Estate

Increasing Real Estate Launches and Project Completion Are Key Demand Drivers

Cement
Cement Tiles Pipes
Sanitary- Wood
ware Panel

Year 0 Tiles

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Completion

42
Source: Internal , KMAMC
Theme 4: Opportunities in Financial Services

Credit Growth Is Reviving To Double Digits

25% Non-food Credit Industry Retail Loans/Personal Loans

20.2%
20%
17.1%
15%

10%
13.6%
5%

0%

-5%
YoY growth
-10%
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jun-21
Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21
Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-22
Source: Spark Capital 43
Theme 4: Opportunities in Financial Services

Asset Quality Seeing Improvement…

GNPAs (%)
8.3

7.5

7.4

6.9

5.9
MAR'20 SEP'20 MAR'21 SEP'21 MAR'22

• The asset quality of SCBs has improved and the GNPA level is at 6-year low
• The fresh slippages have broadly been brought under control.
• Banks have also enhanced their provisions for impaired portfolios

Source: RBI. Data as on 30th Jun’22, Gross NPA (GNPA) denotes the total of all the loan assets that haven't been repaid by the borrowers within the ninety-day period. 44
Theme 5: Rural Revival

Net Farm Income Is Likely To Rise On Better Rabi Crop

5.0 Net Farm Income 50.0%
4.6
4.5
4.1 40.0%
4.0 30.7% 3.8 3.9
30.0%
3.5 3.2 3.3
11.6% 20.0%
3.0 2.7
6.1%
2.5 2.3 10.0%
2.0 2.1
2.0
1.7 1.6 1.6 2.3%
0.0%
1.4
1.5
1.1 -10.0%
1.0
-20.0%
0.5

0.0 -30.0%

FY23E

FY24E
FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22
Net Farm Income (Rs. tn) Growth (%, yoy) - RHS

Note: Top 8 crops, account for 55% of agri. income

Source: GoI, Spark Research 45

Theme 5: Rural Revival

Work demanded under MGNREGA has

Rural spend has picked up since Sep’22 fallen to pre-Covid level

Work demanded by HH in MGNREGS(mn)

Source: RBI, GOI, CMIE, Spark Research 46
Theme 6: Consolidating Leadership Position

Consolidation across sectors

73%
Bank credit (Top 6 cos)
43%

79%
NBFC - Housing finance companies (Top 2 cos)
70%

104%
Cement (Top 5 cos)
51%

95%
Steel (Top 6 cos)
56%

95%
Avaiation (Top 4 cos)
77%

75%
Ports - Share of Non Major ports (Top 7 cos)
43%

76%
General Insurance - PVT Sector share
47%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Incremental share (Diff in FY22 and FY17) 1HFY23 FY17

Based on volumes for aviation, cement, steel & ports, credit for banks, AUM for NBFC, gross premium for insurance
47
Source: Spark Capital
Theme 7: Capitalizing on Global Supply Chain Shifts

China+1 Strategy To Be Visible In The Next Few Years

Gain/loss in IM exports share over last 10 years (bps) Minor shift in share could double India’s exports
25.0% China: Average share of 19%
in industrial machinery over
last 6 years
117 20.3%
20.0%

80

15.0%
41 40
29 29
21 18
6 -100 -89 -45 -29 -27 -22 -18
10.0%
India: Average share of 0.9%
Thailand
Viet Nam
India

Italy
Germany

UK
France

Singapore
China

USA
Japan
Mexico

SouthKorea

Hong Kong

Netherlands
Czech Republic
Taipei, Chinese

-6 in industrial machinery over

last 6 years
5.0%

1.0%
0.0%
CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21

48
Source: DGCI&S, JM Financial
 -35%
-25%
-15%
15%
25%
35%

-5%
5%
200112
200204
200208
200212
200304
200308

Media)
200312
200404
200408
200412
200504
200508

Source: Capitaline , Internal Analysis

200512
200604
200608
200612
200704
200708
200712
200804
200808
200812
200904
200908
200912
201004
201008
201012
Global Commodities (Metals + Materials + Energy + Trading)

201104
201108
201112
201204
201208
Compounders (IT+Healthcare+FMCG+Private Banks + Financial Services)

201212
201304
201308
201312
201404
201408
Contextualising Valuations Across Themes

201412
201504
201508
201512
Market Cap Share Less Profit Share

201604
201608
201612
201704
201708
201712
201804
201808
Local Cyclicals (PSU Banks + Auto + Real Estate + Transportation +Cement+ Consumer Discretionary + Industrials +

201812
201904
201908
201912
202004
202008
202012
202104
202108
49

202112
202204
202208
202212
Domestic Cyclicals To Witness Earnings Recovery

Range
Share of Top 1000 Profit Pools Current Share
Min Max

Auto 0.9% 10.5% 3.1%

Industrials 2.5% 9.3% 5.8%

Cement 0.2% 3.3% 1.2%

Consumer Discretionary -1.2% 4.4% 2.3%

Real Estate -0.7% 5.8% 1.2%

Source: Internal Analysis, from 2000-22 50

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