4q22 Investor Presentaion February 2023
4q22 Investor Presentaion February 2023
4q22 Investor Presentaion February 2023
February 2023
Forward-Looking Statements
This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include
financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to
future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the
words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target” or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal’s management believes that the expectations
reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal’s securities are cautioned that forward-
looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond
the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or
implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in
the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the
United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal’s latest Annual
Report on Form 20-F on file with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a
result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
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Table of Contents
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
link to safety performance (with fatalities acting as a circuit
breaker). STIP safety target 15% and LTIP to 10%
Focussed on detecting and reducing precursors of fatalities and severe injuries to eradicate harm across the Group
Page 5 * LTIF = Lost time injury frequency defined as Lost Time Injuries per 1.000.000 worked hours; based on own personnel and contractors; A Lost Time Injury (LTI) is an incident that
causes an injury that prevents the person from returning to his/her next scheduled shift or work period. Figures presented for LTIF rates exclude ArcelorMittal Italia in its entirety and
from 2021 onwards exclude ArcelorMittal USA following its disposal in December 2020. (Prior period figures have not been recast for the ArcelorMittal USA disposal); STI/LT refers to
short term / long term incentive plan
2022 another year of strategic progress
450 3.0
300 2.1
1.7 1.6 1.7
1.5
1.1
150 100
0.3
0
1Q 15
4Q 22
2Q 15
3Q 15
4Q 15
1Q 16
2Q 16
3Q 16
4Q 16
1Q 17
2Q 17
3Q 17
4Q 17
1Q 18
2Q 18
3Q 18
4Q 18
1Q 19
2Q 19
3Q 19
4Q 19
1Q 20
2Q 20
3Q 20
4Q 20
1Q 21
2Q 21
3Q 21
4Q 21
1Q 22
2Q 22
3Q 22
1Q’21 2Q’21 3Q’21 4Q’21 1Q’22 2Q’22 3Q’22 4Q’22
▪ EBITDA/t in 4Q’22 comfortably higher than recent low points of ▪ FCF in 2022 of $6.4bn was very similar to the level
the cycle achieved in 2021
▪ Demonstrating greater resilience to challenging market ▪ Quarterly profile of FCF has been consistently positive
environment following improvements to the asset portfolio and since 3Q’20
cost base
Page 7
Unique global presence
JV (100% basis)
Europe*** Group
17.7
Brazil
0.1 2.8
0.1
Africa 55.9
14.2
11.5
3.0
2.2 0.3 Shipments EBITDA
Shipments EBITDA Mt $bn**
Shipments EBITDA
* Not an exhaustive list of JVs ; ** 2022 Group EBITDA includes Mining segment EBITDA of $1.7bn with operations in AMMC (Canada) and Liberia; *** European investees includes
Page 8 Acciaierie d'Italia, Rozak and Borcelik. For shipment analysis specifically, estimate for Acciaierie d'Italia presented
Leading the industry towards low-carbon emissions steel
• Plans aligned with the Company’s 2030 GHG emission reduction targets + net zero by 2050*
• The Company is progressing on key European decarbonisation projects
Plans • Broad innovation portfolio of smart carbon and Innovative DRI technologies
• Texas HBI plant acquired, securing high-quality metallics for low-carbon steelmaking
• $0.6bn investment in renewable energy project in India, to supply 20% of AMNS India requirements
Progress • 1st Smart Carbon project in Ghent (Belgium) inaugurated Dec-2022
• Completed acquisition of 4 specialist scrap metal recyclers in Europe
• Low- carbon emissions steel making project in Dofasco (Canada)
• Demand across all segments shows customer appetite for low-carbon solutions***
• Since launch, the Innovation Fund investments has made investments of $158.5m in six companies – Heliogen,
XCarb™ Form Energy, LanzaTech, H2Pro, TerraPower and Boston Metal
• ArcelorMittal is an anchor partner in Breakthrough Energy’s Catalyst Program
• Continued advocacy on state aid approvals and design of EU Fit for 55 package → competitive landscape for
European steel
Policy • SBTi steel sector project ongoing with public consultation closed on Jan 23, 2023. Public launch of guidance
expected in 2Q 2023
• ArcelorMittal Poland obtains ResponsibleSteel™ certification in first for Eastern Europe
Page 9 * Both Europe and groupwide targets are for CO2 equivalent (scope 1 + 2, steel and mining) per tonne crude steel; ** Planned Hamburg project dependent on
funding; *** CO2 savings certificates, verified by an independent auditor, directly relate to CO2 savings from the Group’s investments in decarbonization
technologies implemented across a number of its European sites; GSC refers to green steel certificates; SBTI refers to Science Based Targets Initiative
Value plan: Progress in a challenging year
$1.5bn 3Yr value plan* (2022-2024) Additional temporary actions taken in 2022
▪ Focussed on creating value through well defined initiatives: Commercial (vol & mix in response to energy crisis
improvements) and operational improvements (primarily in variable cost) ▪ In response to the rapidly changing market in
▪ Targeted outcomes → Protect EBITDA against rising inflationary pressures; improve relative Europe, actions were taken to optimize gas
competitive position; and supports sustainably higher profits consumption
▪ Reduced natural gas consumption in the BFs;
oxygen enrichment within reheating furnaces
▪ Leading to a 21% reduction in natural gas
➢ Plan is on track → Actions taken in 2022 yielded improvements of $0.4bn. Examples of the usage per tonne of steel in 2022 vs 2021
initiatives undertaken are as follows:
• Commercial: Projects to improve cost to manufacture value-added products; and increase higher
Europe gas consumed per tonne of steel
added value mix (e.g. Magnelis products, AHSS) shipped 1Q’21-4Q’22 (Base 100=1Q’21)
• Operational: Improvement of fuel rates in BFs; substitution of purchased coke through improved
105
performance of COB; purchasing gains through local sourcing initiatives 100
95
90
Value plan progress ($bn) 85
80
75
1.5 70
65
5
1.1 0
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
0.4
▪ Unsustainably low steel spreads observed in 4Q’22 have begun US, Euro and Chinese HRC prices and the RM basket $/t
to recover
2050
▪ Energy prices have reduced significantly from multi-year highs 1950
1850
US domestic EXW Indiana $/t
Page 11 * ArcelorMittal weighted PMI (purchase managers index) is an aggregation of individual country’s PMI, weighted by ArcelorMittal’s deliveries of finished steel each year;
** As at Jan 30, 2023 QTD
Constructive outlook for 2023
▪ Demand: World ex-China ASC is expected to recover in 2023 by +2.0% to +3.0% as Forecast ASC growth 2023F vs. 2022***
compared to 2022
▪ Shipment growth: ArcelorMittal FY’23 steel shipments are expected to increase ~+5% vs.
FY’22* US**** +1.5% to +3.5%
* Shipments on a like for like basis and exclude CSP; ** Share buy backs in 2022 represented 49% of the post-dividend FCF in 2022. There remains (~$0.1bn) of post-
dividend FCF to be returned to shareholders as per the capital return policy, and this is expected to be completed in 1Q 2023. The remaining amounts under the existing buy
back program will be allocated to the 2023 capital return (targeting 50% of post-dividend FCF as per the policy); *** Latest ArcelorMittal estimates of apparent steel
Page 12 consumption (“ASC”); **** US includes pipes and tubes.
Balanced Capital Allocation
Balance sheet a strong foundation for strategic continuity
Liquidity* at December 31, 2022 ($bn) Debt maturities at December 31, 2022 ($bn)
14.9 0.9
0.6
Cash 9.4
0.8 0.5
0.6 0.2 2.5
0.3
Unused credit lines 5.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2
Page 14 * Liquidity is defined as cash and cash equivalents and restricted funds plus available credit lines excluding back-up lines for the commercial paper program; ** there are no
longer financial covenants in ArcelorMittal debt financings
Our balance sheet is a strong foundation for growth and shareholder returns
Balance sheet has never been as strong Debt adjusted FCF* ($billion)
(Net debt, $bn)
7.0 FCF
6.0 Debt-adjusted FCF**
5.0
4.0 $2.6bn
32.5 average
21.8 3.0 adjusted FCF
10.1
2.2 2.0
3Q’08 2012 2017 2022 1.0
0.0
-1.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Lower interest cost supports FCF
conversion (annual interest cost, $bn)
* Free cash flow defined as cash from operations less capex less dividends to minorities; ** Annualized; *** Historical FCF adjusted to reflect FY’22 interest expense and includes
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dividends paid to minority shareholders.
Progressive steps in base dividend
▪ Having achieved its balance sheet targets, ArcelorMittal adopted a prudent and flexible capital allocation and return policy
▪ Fixed component: Conservative base dividend to be progressively increased over time
▪ Variable component: 50% of post-dividend free cash flow returned to shareholders (50% retained as strategic capital)
0.44
0.38
Invest for
growth 0.30
0.20 0.44
0.38
0.30
Supporting higher 0.10
returns to 0.20
shareholders 0.10
Nil
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*
Page 16 * Subject to shareholder approval at the AGM in May 2023; DPS refers to dividend per share
Post dividend FCF split between strategic investment and returns
▪ SBB totalling $2.9bn returned in 2022 ▪ CSP in Brazil: World class asset,
producing the highest quality slab at a
▪ 106.4m shares repurchased in 2022 at an average price of €26.25 globally competitive cost; significant
synergies identified; Brazil State of Ceará
▪ 313m share buy backs since Sept’20 at an average share price of
investing heavily to be globally
€24.34* competitive in renewables and green
hydrogen
Diluted no. of shares (outstanding** & MCN) (millions)
▪ Texas HBI: 2Mt of high quality HBI
-30% capacity with options for further site
-11% development & industrial expansion; HBI
1,224
can feed Calvert EAF with high quality
135 967
862 metallics it requires
56
57
1,089 911 ▪ Scrap recycling/metallics: 4
805
acquisitions in 2022 with purchases in UK
(John Lawrie), Germany (ALBA);
Sept 30, 2020 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2022 Netherlands (Riwald) and Poland
(Zlomex) to increase sufficient and
Mandatory convertible notes (MCN) security of supply
Number of shares outstanding (issued shares less treasury shares)
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* Average share buy back price of €24.82 including partial MCN conversion of December 23, 2021; ** Issued shares less treasury shares. MCN 57m equivalent shares is considering the $608
million aggregate principal amount of the MCNs remained outstanding as of December 31, 2022, divided by the maximum conversion price of $10.64 per share (post June 2022 dividend); SBB
refers to share buy back
Strategic capex envelope → to drive significant incremental value
* Capex excludes the anticipated upward revisions to Liberia and Monlevade capex due to be communicated in 1H 2023; ** On hold due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine with revised completion date and
Page 18 budget dependent on when the project can be effectively resumed; *** Liberia: Capex required to conclude the project is currently under review given impact of enlarged scope and inflation; **** Monlevade:
capex required to complete the project is currently under review; ***** Estimate of additional contribution to EBITDA, based on assumptions once ramped up to capacity and assuming prices/spreads
generally in line with the averages of the period 2015-2020.
AMNS India JV advancing its growth plans
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Calvert: construction of 1.5Mt EAF
Construction of new 1.5Mt EAF & caster HSM production (Mt) Steel shipments (Mt)
▪ JV to invest $775m for an on-site steelmaking facility (produce slabs for the existing
operations, replacing part of purchased slabs)
-10%
▪ Secures a reliable slab supply (USMCA compliant) → On-demand casting to meet customer -7%
orders within competitive lead times 4.8
4.3 4.5 4.2
▪ Enhanced mill performance: hot charging of steel slabs into HSM
▪ Plan includes option to add further capacity at lower capex intensity
Profitability and net debt in FY’22
▪ 2022 profitability impacted by weaker demand
FY’21 FY’22 FY’21 FY’22
▪ Business generating healthy FCF – cash to be reinvested to fund EAF. Cash needs of $0.1bn
▪ Working capital (WC) investment (slab prices) → new EAF to structurally reduce WC needs
New product development EBITDA ($bn) Net debt* ($bn)
▪ Auto: Launched Usibor 2000GA product - first commercialization on a SUV B-Pillar.
Usibor2000 Al-Si coating approved by 1 OEM and under qualification with other OEMs +0.2
▪ Energy: expanding capabilities on heavy gauge line-pipe to meet new specification demands 0.9
for line pipe projects -46% 0.7
1.1
0.6
Page 20 * FY’21 net debt of $0.7bn excludes $0.8bn of working capital as compared to FY’20 net debt of $0.8bn excluding $0.5bn working capital; FY’22 net debt of $0.9bn excludes
$0.6bn of working capital as compared to FY’21 net debt of $0.7bn excluding $0.8bn working capital
Proposed acquisition of CSP: a key for further value creation in LATAM and beyond
Companhia Siderúrgica do Pecém. (3Mt)
Steelmaking assets Capacity Mt
▪ Agreement reached with Vale (50%), Dongkuk (30%), Posco AM Brasil Flat 7.5
(20%) to acquire Companhia Siderúrgica do Pecém (CSP) AM Brasil Long 4.4
for an enterprise value of $2.2bn AM Argentina long 1.4
CSP 3.0
▪ CSP is a world class asset, producing the highest quality Total AM including CSP 16.3
slab at a globally competitive cost
▪ The addition of CSP will yield significant benefits for 1 BF and 2 BOFs with 3Mt annual slab capacity
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Decarbonization of NAFTA footprint accelerated following Texas HBI plant acquisition
State of the art 5.3Mt
▪ HBI plant acquisition completed in 2Q’22 finishing facility, with
1.5Mtpa EAF under
▪ 2Mt of high quality HBI capacity with options construction at Calvert,
for further site development & industrial Alabama
expansion
▪ Potential to generate > $130 million EBITDA
AMMC converting 10Mt/y pellet
p.a.
production to DRI pellets by end 2025
▪ HBI from Corpus Christi facility can ultimately Canada
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Sustainable Development
Sustainability governance
Sustainable development underpins ArcelorMittal’s purpose
Our 10 SD outcomes
▪ Board oversight of SD progress each 1. Safe, healthy, quality working
quarter by the Board Sustainability lives for our people
Committee → three independent directors, 2. Products that accelerate more
chaired by Clarissa Lins sustainable lifestyles
3. Products that create
▪ Five sustainability themes used to ensure sustainable infrastructure
4. Efficient use of resources and
Board focus on all key aspects of
high recycling rates
sustainability over the year, via dashboards, 5. Trusted user of air, land and
progress reports water
6. Responsible energy user that
▪ 10 SD outcomes provide framework for SD helps create a lower carbon
planning by business operations future
7. Supply chains that our
▪ Accountability for SD is led by the Executive customers trust
Vice President, Business Optimisation, 8. Active and welcomed member
reporting directly to the Executive Office of the community
9. Pipeline of talented scientists
▪ ResponsibleSteel and IRMA certification and engineers for tomorrow
program to drive strong, consistent ESG 10. Our contribution to society
measured, shared and valued
management systems across business
Underpinned by transparent good
governance
Key
The waterfall chart 2030-2050 breakdown displayed on this slide is for illustrative purposes only.
We are helping to define the low-carbon emissions steel standard
Supports the creation of market demand for physical steel products which would be classified as lower, and
ultimately near-zero, carbon emissions steel
3 core principles:
A dual-score approach
1. Dual score system incentivises decarbonisation
progress and provides a
▪ Decarbonisation progress rating system comparable and transparent
values for embodied carbon
▪ LCA value for finished products (EPD for construction products) emissions of steel products
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Global ResponsibleSteel site certification in France, Spain, Brazil and Poland;
following progress in the Americas
Reduces our SD risk, improves our SD performance and meets our stakeholders’ rising SD requirements
Page 27
Climate Leadership: ArcelorMittal role in multiple initiatives to define carbon standards
for the steel industry
We aim to drive alignment as far as possible between different initiatives
Page 28
Guidance for investment in near-zero/net-zero steel
Macro
Beyond 2022 – Energy transition to be a key demand driver
Europe: Steel intensity in energy sector is increasing with the transition to
low carbon sources of energy generation
▪ Steel will play an important role in the energy transition
▪ Steel intensity of renewables-based power infrastructure is significantly higher than Equivalent to additional ~4%
traditional carbon-based power infrastructure to 5% of European flat steel
▪ EU wind and solar power capacity is expected to increase rapidly over the next 10 years
demand annually
triggered by the REPowerEU Plan
▪ ArcelorMittal estimates that the annual steel consumed in Europe to build wind and solar
capacity will increase 4x fold in the period 2021-2030 relative to 2016–2020
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Trade policy in core markets EU/NA to provide protection
ArcelorMittal continues to support action to address unfair trade
Europe: United States:
▪ All key flat rolled steel products AD/CVD measures have been
• Anti-dumping (AD) duties in place since 2017 - HRC against China, Ukraine*,
implemented; 5-year reviews conducted in 2022 – measures continued
Brazil, Russia, Iran and anti-subsidy (AS) duties against China. These measures
on corrosion-resistant, cold-rolled, and hot-rolled steel, and cut-to-length
are currently the subject of expiry reviews initiated by the Commission
steel plate
• On Jul 1, 2022, the European Commission (EC) implemented a number of small
▪ Section 232 implemented March 23, 2018; 25% tariffs and/or
technical changes to the safeguard measures and adjusted the quota
quotas/tariff-rate quotas on all steel product categories on most
liberalisation from 3% to 4%, following a review. On Dec 2, 2022, the EC initiated
countries (except Canada, Mexico, Australia)
a new fundamental review into the safeguard measures. The Commission is
looking into whether to maintain the measures until the originally foreseen end ▪ On Jan. 1, 2022, the US replaced the existing Section 232 tariffs on
date of June 30, 2024, or if they should be terminated a year early on June 30, EU steel with a Tariff-rate Quota (TRQ.) The total annual import
2023. Due to European sanctions on Russia and Belarus, the quotas for the two volume under the TRQ is set at 3.3Mt allocated by product category
countries have already been redistributed across other third countries. and on an EU member state basis. Only steel “melted and poured” in
the EU is eligible for duty-free treatment. Imports above the TRQ
• Feb 25, 2022, Commission opened an expiry review into Chinese Heavy Plate
volumes will continue to be subject to the 25% tariff. An additional
imports
1.1Mt of products previously excluded from Section 232 tariffs will
• Jun 15, 2022, Commission opened an expiry review into Belarusian Rebar also be allowed to continue duty-free.
imports
▪ Tariff-rate quotas arrangements with Japan and the UK were also
• On Aug 12, 2022, the EU imposed AD duties on imports of Turkish & Russian agreed and implemented in 2Q 2022
HDG coils (non-auto)
Canada:
• On Oct 12, 2022, Member States agreed to continue AD measures against CRC
from China and Russia for a further 5 years, following an expiry review ▪ Thirteen cold-rolled and corrosion-resistant AD/CVD measures
implemented 2018-2020
• On Oct 12, 2022, Member States agreed on the implementation of AD duties
against ECCS from China ▪ Hot-rolled AD/CVD 5-year review initiated in 2H’21 (China, Brazil,
Ukraine, India); measures continued on all countries except Ukraine
Page 31 * On December 21, 2022 the EC proposed removing Ukraine from the investigation, and therefore from the measures if they are renewed. A final decision on this is pending and Ukraine
currently remains part of the investigation. Anti-dumping (AD); Countervailing duties (CVD)
Regional inventory
German inventories (000 Mt)* US service centre steel inventories (000 Mt)
(latest data point: Dec 2022) 5.0
Germany Stocks in Kt (latest data point: Dec-2022) 3.6
1,400 USA (MSCI)
Monthly supply (RHS) 12,000 3.4
1,200 4.0 Months Supply (RHS)
10,000 3.2
1,000 3.0
3.0 8,000 2.8
800 2.6
2.0 6,000
600 2.4
4,000 2.2
1.0
400 2.0
2,000
200 0.0 1.8
0 1.6
Brazil service centre inventories (000 Mt) China steel inventories (warehouse)** (Mt/mth) with ASC%
Flat stocks at service centres (latest data point: Dec-2022)
1,400 7.0 Flat and long % of ASC (RHS) (latest data point: Dec-2022)
Months Supply (RHS) 30 45%
1,200 6.0 40%
25
1,000 35%
5.0 20 30%
800 25%
4.0 15
600 20%
3.0 10 15%
400
10%
200 2.0 5
5%
0 1.0 0 0%
Page 32
* German inventories seasonally adjusted
**Source: WSA, Mysteel, ArcelorMittal strategy estimates
China net exports
Daniel Fairclough – Global Head Investor Relations Maureen Baker – Fixed Income/Debt Investor Relations
daniel.fairclough@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1105 maureen.baker@arcelormittal.com +33 1 71 92 10 26
Hetal Patel – General Manager Investor Relations Victoria Irving – ESG Investor Relations
hetal.patel@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1128 victoria.irving@arcelormittal.com +44 7435 192206
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