MOREH ACADEMY

RIGHTEOUSNESS AND EXCELLENCE

Ricahuerta Street Cor. A. Bonifacio Avenue, Upper Bicutan, Taguig City
Tel. Nos.: 839-0135; 838-9077 Email: morehacademy2002@yahoo.com.ph

GRADE 11

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

MODULE

QUARTER 4 WEEK 1

1
 MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCY

✓ identifies the length of a confidence interval

✓ computes for the length of the confidence interval.
✓ computes for an appropriate sample size using the length of the
interval
✓ solves problems involving sample size determination

I. INTRODUCTION

A. Overview

Very often, we want to describe particular characteristics of an entire

population. The information might be needed for decision-making. However,
collecting data from the population is impractical even if it is possible to do so.
Researchers often use a random sample to undertake this. The results may not
exactly be equal the population parameter but there are acceptable procedures to
approximate population values.

The process by which conclusions about parameters in the population are

made based on sample data is called statistical inference. There are two areas of
statistical inference: estimation and hypothesis testing.

B. Objectives
At the end of this module learner, 75% of the students will be able to;
✓ demonstrates understanding of key concepts of estimation of population mean
and population proportion.
✓ estimate the population mean and population proportion to make sound
inferences in reallife problems in different disciplines.

C. Topic Outline
• Estimation of Parameters

II. PRE-TEST

Circle the letter of the best answer for each of the following.

1. What do you call the set of all people, objectives, events, or ideas you want to
investigate?
a. sample b. population c. data d. statistics

2. A sample refers to _____________ of a population.

a. a subset b. a list c. a description d. another name

3. What is the mean of 13, 27, 29, 17, and 14?

a. 29 b. 28 c. 20 d. 13

4. What do you call a number that describe a population characteristic?

a. sample statistics b. parameter c. variable d. decimal

5. Which of the following symbols denotes population mean?

a. X b. 𝜎 c. 𝜇 d. s

2
III. LEARNING ACTIVITIES

COMPUTING THE POINT ESTIMATE OF A

POPULATION MEAN

In real life, most of the information we deal with are numerical. When we make
up in the morning, our first concern is the time.

In-class Activity 1
Wake-Up Time
Prepare a tally board with following headings and entries.
Time Tally Frequency
5:00 II 2
5:30 II 2
6:00 IIII 4
6:30 III 3
7:00 IIIII 5
Total 16
Average 3.2

The arithmetic average computed from the table is also known as the mean.
The class constitutes a sample. If we repeat the activity to, say, ten random classes,
then we obtain ten arithmetic averages or means. Suppose we proceed to compute
the mean of the means for all ten classes. The final result is a number that is called
point estimate of the mean of the population where the samples come from.

An estimate is a value or a range of values that approximate a

parameter. It is based on sample statistics computed from sample data.

Estimation is the process of determining parameter values.

In-class Activity 2

Restaurant Service Quality

Susan, a TLE researcher, looked at the average time (in minutes) it takes a
random sample of customers to be served in a restaurant. From 40 customers, the
following information was observed. What is the average wait time?

8 8 10 18 10 13 8 10 8 10
12 10 16 16 12 15 12 12 9 15
10 20 20 12 10 10 16 10 18 12
15 12 15 14 15 16 15 12 8 8

1. What is the mean of the sample?

2. This value is called _____________ of the population mean.

3. Based on the observation of the mean, would you patronized the restaurant?

3
 A population may be finite or infinite. A finite population is countable. The
actual number of customers served in a restaurant constitutes a finite population. An
infinite population is a hypothetical collection of elements such as tell the result of a
coin tossing experiment to determine the probability of getting heads or tails.

Population parameters are usually unknown fixed values. But, there is a way
to determine them. In the example, there are two ways to report the result:

1. Report a number that describes the average wait time. This number is called point
estimate.

In this case, the mean is the best estimator why not the median or the mode?
Among the three measures of central values, the mean is the most reliable measure
of center. In a mean, any change in a value affects the result. Means of sample vary
less than the median of the mode.

2. Report a range of values that contains the number that truly describes the wait
time. This number is called interval estimate.

A point estimate is a specific numerical value of a population

parameter. The sample mean x is the best point estimate of the
population mean.

An interval estimate is a range of values that may contain the

parameter of a population.

In-Class Activity 3

Coco juice

Mr. Santiago’s company sells bottled coconut juice. He claims that a bottle
contains 500 ml of such juice. A consumer group wanted to know if his claim is true.
They took six random samples of 10 such bottles and obtained the capacity, in ml, of
each bottle. The result is shown as follows:

Sample 1 500 498 497 503 499 497 497 497 497 495
Sample 2 500 500 495 494 498 500 500 500 500 497
Sample 3 497 497 502 496 497 497 497 497 497 495
Sample 4 501 495 500 497 497 500 500 495 497 497
Sample 5 502 497 497 499 496 497 497 499 500 500
Sample 6 496 497 496 495 497 497 500 500 496 497

Assuming that the measurements were carefully obtained and that the only
kind of error present of error present is the sampling error, what is the point estimate
of the population mean?

Manual Estimation of the Population Mean

When dealing with a large number of values, the mean of small samples may
be obtained. These means constitute a sampling distribution of means. To find the
overall mean, simply find the sum of the mean values. Then, divide this sum by the
total number of sample means.

For example, let us consider the six sample rows of the 60 bottles as excellent
sample. Next, we compute each row mean.

4
 500 + 498 + 497 + 503 + 499 + 497 + 497 + 497 + 497 + 495
𝑋𝑟1 =
10
4980
𝑋𝑟1 =
10
𝑋𝑟1 = 498

Other than the mean, we also compute the standard deviation s to describe
the dispersion of the scores in a distribution. The standard deviation is the square
root of the variance. So, we compute the variance first. Then, we extract the square
root of the result to get the value of the standard deviation.

In-Class Activity 4

Coco Juice

Look at the 60 battles of coconut juice as consisting of 10 columns and 6

rows. Compute the means of the column samples. What is the overall mean?

Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
500 498 497 503 499 497 497 497 497 495
500 500 495 494 498 500 500 500 500 497
497 497 502 496 497 497 497 497 497 495
501 495 500 497 497 500 500 495 497 497
502 497 497 499 496 497 497 499 500 500
496 497 496 497 497 497 500 500 496 497

The mean for column sample 1 is

500 + 500 + 497 + 501 + 502 + 496 + 2996
Ẍ𝑐1 = = = 499.33
6 6

In-Class Activity 5
Bottled Drinks
Complete the computation of the standard deviation of the 60 bottled drinks.
∑(𝑋−Ẍ)2
Recall: Variance (𝑠 2 ) : 𝑠 2 =
𝑛−1

∑(𝑋−Ẍ)2
Standard Deviation (s) :𝑠 = √
𝑛−1

Where: Σ = ‘sum of’

X = column mean

Ẍ= overall mean
n = number of cases

In the following procedure, the values are expressed up to two decimal

places. Note that we are working on the column means.

5
 Solution:

Steps Solution

1. Find the sum

2
∑(𝑋 − Ẍ)2
of the values in 𝑠 =
the numerator 𝑛−1
2
(499.33 − 497.83)2 + (497.33 − 497.83)2 + ⋯ + (496 − 497.83)2
and divide it by 𝑠 =
9 10 − 1
𝑠 2 = __________
The result is called variance.

2. Extract S = _________________
square root of This value is called _______________________
the variance.

UNDERSTANDING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES

FOR THE POPULATION MEAN

When we describe population values, we want to be confident about our

estimates. Other than the point estimate, we can use a range of values. This
range of values is called interval estimate. You will learn more about interval
estimates in this lesson.

An interval estimate, called a confidence interval, is a range of

values that is used to estimate a parameter. This estimate may or may
not contain the true parameter value.

For example, the age of a beginning grade 1 pupil is any value between 6
years and 7 years.

In determining an interval estimate, a degree of confidence (expressed as

a percentage such as 95%) that the interval contains the true and fixed
parameter is made. That is, if we collect several random samples and then
calculate a confidence interval from each sample, these confidence intervals are
constructed wide enough so that 95% of them contain the true population
parameter and 5% do not. The value 95% is also known as the confidence level.

The confidence level of an interval estimate of a parameter is the

probability that the interval estimate contains the parameter. It describe what
percentage of intervals from many different samples contain the unknown
population parameter.

There are three commonly used confidence intervals: the 90%, the 95%,
and the 99% confidence intervals. Shorter intervals are more informative than
longer ones. A short confidence interval can be obtained by having a large
sample or by using a lower confidence level.

Meaning of 95% Confidence

In similar manner, if a large number of random samples resulting in more

interval estimates were obtained from the population with mean where the

6
students belong, and our confidence is 95%, then 95% of these interval
estimates will contain the true population mean.
To illustrate further the idea of the interval estimates, let
us use the figure on the right.

There are 10 random samples and there are 10 interval

estimates from each sample. These are shown under the
heading, Confidence Interval. The parameter is the Population
Mean. The vertical line indicates the location of mean and the
confidence intervals of the 10 samples are shown by the
horizontal line segments. Note that some of these contain
mean and some do not contain it. If there are more sample
interval estimates and our confidence is 95%, in the long run,
95% of the sample confidence intervals will contain mean.

Determining Interval Estimates

𝜎
In general formula for a confidence interval, the term 𝑧𝑎/2 ( 𝑛) is called
√
margin of error, denoted by E, which is defined as the maximum likely difference
between the observed sample mean and the true value of the population mean.
Thus, another way of writing the formula for finding the confidence interval for the
population parameter mean is: Ẍ - E <𝜇< Ẍ - E

𝜎
Where 𝐸 = 𝑧𝑎/2 ( 𝑛)
√

However, when 𝜎 is not known (as is often the case), the sample standard
deviation s is used to approximate 𝜎. So, the formula for E is modified.

𝜎 𝑠
𝐸 = 𝑧𝑎/2 ( ) ≈ 𝑧𝑎/2 ( )
√𝑛 √𝑛
The interval estimation procedure is summarized in the following four-step
process.

A Four-Step Process in Computing the Interval Estimate

Step 1: Describe the population parameter of interest (e.g., mean).

Step 2: Specify the confidence interval criteria.

a. Check the assumptions.

b. Determine the test statistics to be used.

c. State the level of confidence.

Step 3: Collect and present sample evidence.

a. Collect the sample information.

b. Find the point estimate.

Step 4: Determine the confidence interval.

a. Determine the confidence coefficients (e.g., 𝑧𝑎/2 ).

b. Find the maximum error E of the estimate.

c. Find the lower and the upper confidence limits.

d. Describe/interpret the result. 7

 CONFIDENCE LEVEL AND SAMPLE SIZE

How large should a sample be? Many researchers find this a problem. In
fact, many rely on old methods to determine the sample size they need in their
investigations. This problem should be addressed carefully because needlessly
large samples are a waste of important resources. On the other hand, insufficient
sample size may lead to poor results.

In-Class Activity 1
Deriving Formula 1
There are two things to remember when decide on the quality of the
sample size we need: confidence and the narrowness of the interval. The
computing formula in determining sample size is derived from the formula of the
𝜎
margin of error E where: 𝐸 = 𝑧𝑎/2 ( 𝑛)
√

• Study the derivation of the computing formula for determining

minimum sample size when estimating a population mean.
• Discuss the elements of the formula.

Let us solve for n, the sample size needed in estimating a population

mean. To do this, we modify the equation by applying the properties of
equality.

𝑧𝑎 (𝜎)
2
So, 𝐸 =
√𝑛

𝐸 √𝑛 = 𝑧𝑎 (𝜎)
2

𝑧𝑎 (𝜎)
2
√𝑛 = 𝐸

2
𝑧𝑎 (𝜎) 2
(√𝑛) = ( 2 )
𝐸

𝑧𝑎 (𝜎) 2
𝑛=( 2
𝐸
) →Formula in Determining the Minimum Sample
Size Needed when Estimating the Population

Example 1: Feeding Program

In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the mean weight, in

kilograms, of all six-year old children to be included in a feeding program. She
wants to be 99% confident that the estimate of mean is accurate to within 0.06
kg. Suppose from a previous study, the standard deviation of the weights of the
target population was 0.5 kg, what should the sample size be?

8
Solution:
Given the confidence 99%. Then a=1 - 0.99 = 0.01. Thus, 𝑧𝑎/2 = 2.58.
The phrase “accurate to within 0.06 kg’’ indicates a narrowed width of the
confidence interval. Thus, the desired error E=0.06 kg.
Population standard deviation 𝜎 = 0.5𝑘𝑔
Substituting the values in the equation for getting sample size, we have:
𝑧𝑎 (𝜎) 2
𝑛=( 2 )
𝐸
2.58(0.5) 2
𝑛=( )
0.06
1.29 2
𝑛=( )
0.06
𝑛 = (21.5)2
𝑛 = 462.25
Round up the value to 463. So the required sample size is 463 six-year
old children.

Example 2: Replicating a Study

Joshua wants to replicate a study where the lowest observed value is 12.4
while the highest is 12.8. He wants to estimate the population mean to within an
error of 0.025 of its true value. Using 99% confidence level, find the sample size
n that he needs.

Solution:
The confidence level is 99%. So, a = 0.01. Therefore, 𝑧𝑎/2 = 2.58.
The desired error is 0.025. Since the range R=12.8-12.4= 0.4, then 𝜎 =
𝑅
= 0.1.
4
Substituting the values in the equation for getting sample size, we have:

𝑧𝑎 (𝜎) 2
𝑛=( 2 )
𝐸
2.58(0.1) 2
𝑛=( )
0.025
0.258 2
𝑛=( )
0.025
𝑛 = (10.32)2
𝑛 = 106.5
Round up 106.5 to 107. So the required sample size is 107.

Note: When determining sample size, we always round up the resulting value to
the next whole number.
9
In-Class Activity 2

Deriving formula 2
• Study the derivation of the computing formula in determining the sample
size needed when estimating population proportion.
• Compare this formula with the formula derived in In-class Activity 1.
To determine the sample size for finding the confidence interval for a
proportion, the computing formula is also derived from the margin of error.

𝑝𝑞
𝐸 = 𝑧𝑎/2 √
𝑛

Modifying the proportion, we get:

𝐸 𝑝𝑞
=√
𝑧𝑎/2 𝑛

Next, we square both side.

2
𝐸 𝑝𝑞
( ) =
𝑧𝑎/2 𝑛
𝐸2 𝑝𝑞
=
(𝑧𝑎/2 )2 𝑛
𝑛 ∙ 𝐸 2 = 𝑝𝑞 ∙ (𝑧𝑎/2 )2
Finally, solving for n:
𝑝𝑞∙(𝑧𝑎/2 )2 𝑧𝑎/2 2
𝑛= or 𝑛 = 𝑝𝑞 ( )
𝐸2 𝐸

That is the formula in determining the minimum sample size needed when
estimating the population proportion.

In computing the sample size for estimating a population proportion, there

are two situations to bear in mind:
1. If some approximation of p is known, that value may be used in the formula.
2. If no approximation is known, use p= 0.5. This value will result in a sample size
large enough to guarantee prediction, given the confidence interval and the error
of estimate. The reason is that when p and q are 0.5 each, the product is at
maximum, as shown in the following table.

10
In-Class Activity 1
Determining Sample Size Involving Proportions

• Study the following steps in determining sample size dealing with

proportions.
Steps in Solving for Sample Size Involving Proportions

Step 1.Determine the confidence level.

Step 2.Determine the confidence coefficient.
Step 3.Determine the error E.
Step 4.Determine p and q.
Step 5.Substitute the values in the formula:
𝑧𝑎/2 2
𝑛 = 𝑝𝑞 ( )
𝐸
Step 6.Round up the resulting value to the nearest whole number.

Example 1: Detergent X

Mary wants to know, with 95% confidence, the proportion of households

who like to use detergent X. A previous survey showed that 42% like to use
detergent X. Mary likes to be accurate within 2% of the true proportion. What
sample size does Mary need?

Solution:
The computing formula is:
𝑧𝑎/2 2
𝑛 = 𝑝𝑞 ( )
𝐸
The error E is pegged at 2%.
Thus, q=1-0.42=0.58
We substitute these values in the computing formula:

Steps Solution
1. Determine the confidence level. 95%confidence
2. Determine the confidence coefficient With a 95% confidence level.
So, 𝑧𝑎/2 = 1.96
3. Determine the error E. E = 5% or 0.05
4. Determine p and q. The given proportion is 42%.
That is p = 0.42.
So, q = 1 - 0.42 = 0.58
𝑧𝑎 2
5. Substitute the values in the formula and compute. 𝑛 = 𝑝𝑞 ( 2 )
𝐸

1.96 2
𝑛 = (0.42)(0.58) ( )
0.02

11
 𝑛 = (0.42)(0.58)(9604)
6. Round up the resulting value to nearest 𝑛 = 2339.53 𝑜𝑟 2340
whole number.

Thus, Mary needs a sample of 2340 respondents.

Example 2: New School Structure

The dean of a collage wants to use the proportion of a population to

determine the sample size needed to interview regarding their thoughts about the
new school structure. She wants to be able assert with a probability 0.95 that her
error will be at most 0.05. Similar polls in the past showed that 65% approved the
new structure. How large a sample does the Dean need?

Solution:
Steps Solution
1. Determine the confidence level. 95%confidence
2. Determine the confidence coefficient With a 95% confidence level,
a = 0.05. So, 𝑧𝑎/2 = 1.96
3. Determine the error E. E = 2% or 0.02
4. Determine p and q. The given proportion is 65%.
That is p = 0.65.
So, q = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35
𝑧𝑎 2
5. Substitute the values in the formula and compute. 𝑛 = 𝑝𝑞 ( 2 )
𝐸

1.96 2
𝑛 = (0.65)(0.35) ( )
0.05

𝑛 = (0.65)(0.35)(1536.64)
6. Round up the resulting value to nearest 𝑛 = 349.58 𝑜𝑟 350
whole number.

The Dean needs a sample size of 350 respondents.

IV. GENERALIZATION

The arithmetic average computed from the table is also known as the mean. The
class constitutes a sample. If we repeat the activity to, say, ten random classes,
then we obtain ten arithmetic averages or means. Suppose we proceed to
compute the mean of the means for all ten classes. The final result is a number
that is called point estimate of the mean of the population where the samples
come from.

12
 An estimate is a value or a range of values that approximate a
parameter. It is based on sample statistics computed from sample data.

Estimation is the process of determining parameter values.

A point estimate is a specific numerical value of a population

parameter. The sample mean x is the best point estimate of the
population mean.

An interval estimate is a range of values that may contain the

parameter of a population.

Manual Estimation of the Population Mean

When dealing with a large number of values, the mean of small samples
may be obtained. These means constitute a sampling distribution of means. To
find the overall mean, simply find the sum of the mean values. Then, divide this
sum by the total number of sample means.
∑(𝑋−Ẍ)2
Recall: Variance (𝑠 2 ) : 𝑠 2 =
𝑛−1

∑(𝑋−Ẍ)2
Standard Deviation (s) : 𝑠 = √
𝑛−1

An interval estimate, called a confidence interval, is a range of

values that is used to estimate a parameter. This estimate may or may
not contain the true parameter value.

A Four-Step Process in Computing the Interval Estimate

Step 1: Describe the population parameter of interest (e.g., mean).

Step 2: Specify the confidence interval criteria.

a. Check the assumptions.

b. Determine the test statistics to be used.

c. State the level of confidence.

Step 3: Collect and present sample evidence.

a. Collect the sample information.

b. Find the point estimate.

Step 4: Determine the confidence interval.

a. Determine the confidence coefficients (e.g., 𝑧𝑎/2 ).

b. Find the maximum error E of the estimate.

c. Find the lower and the upper confidence limits.

d. Describe/interpret the result.

13
 Finally, solving for n:
𝑝𝑞∙(𝑧𝑎/2 )2 𝑧𝑎/2 2
𝑛= or 𝑛 = 𝑝𝑞 ( )
𝐸2 𝐸

That is the formula in determining the minimum sample size needed when
estimating the population proportion.

V. ASSESSMENT

A. Find the point estimate of the population parameter mean, and the
standard deviation for each of the following sets of data.

1. Scores in a long test in Science.

78 75 86 82 70 85 83 86
80 92 82 85 80 88 84 86
90 88 90 78 83 90 86 84
75 85 77 88 85 90 85 83
83 86 83 84 86 92 85 80
76 88 79 84 80 88 80 88

2. Lengths of seeding in a plant box in cm.

8 8.6 12 10 8 10.5 8 10.6
8.6 10.5 7.4 6.4 12.2 6.5 12 6.8
7.5 8 11 8.5 9.5 12 11.5 12.5
10.4 7 6.8 7 7 10.5 7 7
7 8.3 7 13.5 12.5 7 7 12.5
10 6.8 10.2 6 6.5 10.3 6.8 6.8

𝒛𝒂/𝟐 𝟐
B. Find ( ) given each of the following.
𝑬

1. 90% confidence, E = 0.01

2. 90% confidence, E = 0.02

3. 95% confidence, E = 0.15

4. 95% confidence, E = 0.08

5. 99% confidence, E = 0.05

14
 MOREH ACADEMY
RIGHTEOUSNESS AND EXCELLENCE
Ricahuerta Street Cor. A. Bonifacio Avenue, Upper Bicutan, Taguig City
Tel. Nos.: 839-0135; 838-9077 Email: morehacademy2002@yahoo.com.ph

Name Date

Grade &
GRADE 11 - Teacher
Section

Learning Activity Sheet

Subject/ Learning Area: STATISTICS& PROBABILITY

Activity 1: ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS

Very often, we want to describe particular characteristics of an entire

population. The information might be needed for decision-making. However,
collecting data from the population is impractical even if it is possible to do so.
Researchers often use a random sample to undertake this. The results may
not exactly be equal the population parameter but there are acceptable
procedures to approximate population values.

The process by which conclusions about parameters in the population are

made based on sample data is called statistical inference. There are two
areas of statistical inference: estimation and hypothesis testing.

MELC:
✓ identifies the length of a confidence interval
✓ computes for the length of the confidence interval.
✓ computes for an appropriate sample size using the length of the interval
✓ solves problems involving sample size determination
✓ properties

Activities:

A. Find the point estimate of the population parameter mean, and the
standard deviation for each of the following sets of data.

1. Weights of packed ground coffee in grams

350 346 350 346 350 348 351 351

340 347 344 340 340 340 345 347
355 348 351 347 347 352 356 352
347 348 347 347 347 347 346 347
348 351 347 348 348 348 348 349
348 349 348 349 349 348 347 349
249 349 349 349 349 348 346 349

15
 2. In a practice, this is the time in seconds, run by Lydia for a 100-m race.

15 12 16 12 15 15 15 16
14 13 14 14 16 14 14 16
12 12 12 13 12 15 12 13
12 15 15 13 12 12 12 12
15 11 15 15 15 15 15 15
18 16 17 16 15 16 16 18
18 17 18 16 15 14 18 16

3. Percentage of children who watch TV before bedtime.

70 67 58 60 69 62 70 62
69 59 77 59 52 79 59 59
80 42 60 59 68 40 68 68
56 66 60 40 57 57 70 71
72 54 52 67 62 59 71 72
81 49 45 78 78 69 68 69

B. Find the sample size for each of the following.

1. 90% confidence, E = 0.08, p = 0.38

2. 95% confidence, E = 0.05, p = 0.38

3. 95% confidence, E = 0.12, p = 0.38

4. 99% confidence, E = 0.20, p = 0.38

5. 99% confidence, E = 0.25, p = 0.38

Teacher`s Remarks/ Comments:

____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________.
Checked by:
_____________________________
Teacher`s Signature

Date: __________________________

VI. REFERENCES

Belecina, Rene R., 2016, STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Baccay, Elisa S., 2016, STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
Mateo, Efren B., 2016, STATICTICS AND PROBABILITY
Prepared by:
Victorino O. Alahid
SHS Mathematics Teacher

16