Wasde 0223
Wasde 0223
Wasde 0223
WHEAT: The supply and demand outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is largely unchanged this month with minor revisions to dom
and ending stocks. Food use is lowered 2 million bushels to 975 million, which still is a record. The decrease is based on the N
Millings Products report, indicating a 2 percent reduction in wheat ground for flour for the October-December quarter compa
year earlier. Seed use is raised 1 million bushels to 70 million, based primarily on NASS seed use data for the September-Nove
quarter. Wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million tons with offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks
1 million bushels to 568 million. The 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $9.00, based on
received to date and expectations for cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks. Supplies are raised 2.4 million
1,060.5 million, primarily on higher production for Australia and Russia. Australia production is raised 1.4 million tons to 38.0
which would be a third consecutive record. The majority of the increase is for Western Australia based on harvest receivals to
Russia production is raised 1.0 million tons to 92.0 million on larger spring wheat harvested area.
Global consumption is increased 1.4 million tons to 791.2 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use by Canada, EU, and R
than offsetting lower food, seed, and industrial use by Bangladesh. World trade is raised 1.3 million tons to 212.9 million on h
exports by Australia, Ukraine, EU, and Russia more than offsetting reduced exports by Canada. Projected 2022/23 ending stoc
raised 0.9 million tons to 269.3 million on increases for Australia and China more than offsetting a reduction for Ukraine. How
ending stocks still remain the lowest since 2016/17.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol and larger ending stocks. Corn use
ethanol is reduced 25 million bushels, based on data through December from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production
and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of January. With no
changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by produc
unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.6 million tons lower to 1,442.8 million. This month’s foreign coarse gr
is for reduced production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with a dec
Argentina partially offset by increases for the Philippines and Vietnam. For Argentina, production is cut based on reductions to
and yield. Foreign barley production is raised reflecting increases for Russia, Australia, and Uruguay.
Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include higher projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, Paraguay, Turkey, and Indon
a reduction for Argentina. For 2021/22, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2022 are lowered base
observed shipments to date, while Brazil is raised. Corn imports for 2022/23 are increased for the EU, with partly offsetting re
for Indonesia and Malaysia. Sorghum imports are lowered for China, reflecting export cuts for Argentina and the United State
corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, with declines for Ukraine and Indonesia that are partly offset by increases
and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 295.3 million tons, are down 1.1 million.
RICE: This month’s outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, smaller exports, and slightly la
ending stocks. Total imports are lowered 3.0 million cwt to 42.0 million with reductions to the long-grain and medium- and sh
import forecasts. Import forecasts for all rice and both classes of rice remain record highs and total supplies are the lowest sin
2003/04. In contrast, total exports are forecast down 4.0 million cwt to 62.0 million, the lowest level since 1985/86, as high U
continue to limit sales. Long-grain exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt to 47.0 million, on weak sales and shipments to date, p
rough rice to Mexico. Medium- and short-grain rice exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt to 15.0 million on tight supplies, weak
date, and expectations regarding shipments for the remainder of the year. Projected 2022/23 all rice ending stocks are increa
million cwt to 33.1 million, but still down 17 percent from last year. The season-average farm price (SAFP) for long-grain rice i
$0.20 per cwt to $16.90, while the SAFPs for southern and California medium- and short-grain rice were unchanged. The high
grain SAFP raised the all rice average farm price to $19.40 per cwt, up 20 cents.
The 2022/23 global outlook this month is for slightly larger supplies, modestly lower trade, increased consumption, and lower
stocks. Global 2022/23 rice supplies are increased by 0.2 million tons to 686.3 million. Total trade is forecast to decline 0.3 m
to 54.1 million, as reductions for Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, and the United States more than offset an increase for India. To
in the first three months of India’s marketing year were larger than a year earlier and demand for rice from India remains stro
its export restrictions. India’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 21.5 million, slightly below last year’s record. Exports from
are forecast 0.6 million tons lower to 6.8 million due to lower production reducing exportable supplies. Global consumption is
million tons to 517.2 million as increases in China and Bangladesh more than offset a decrease for Indonesia. World ending st
lowered 0.9 million tons to 169.1 million, 8 percent lower than global ending stocks in 2021/22.
OILSEEDS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower soybean crush and higher ending stocks. Soybean crush is
2.23 billion bushels, down 15 million from last month on lower domestic soybean meal disappearance and a higher soybean m
extraction rate. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.30 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month. The soybea
price is forecast at $450.00 per short ton, up 25 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 68.0 cents per pound.
Global 2022/23 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, and ending stocks. Global production
5.0 million tons to 383.0 million on lower crops for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina’s crop is reduced 4.5 million tons to 41.0
lower area and dry weather conditions impacting yields. Ukraine’s crop is down 0.4 million tons on lower reported area harve
Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged, with lower exports for Argentina offset by higher shipments for Paraguay and B
Soybean imports are increased for Argentina while down for the EU. EU imports are reduced on the pace to date and higher i
rapeseed and sunflowerseed. Pakistan’s imports are also down due to restrictions on import licenses of genetically engineere
soybeans.
Global oilseed crush is reduced 3.4 million tons mainly on lower crush for China, Pakistan, and Argentina. China’s crush is low
slower-than-expected pace to date. Pakistan’s crush is reduced on lower available supplies. Argentina’s crush is lowered lead
reduced soybean meal and oil shipments. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.5 million tons to 102.0 million, with low
American stocks partly offset by higher stocks for China.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is decreased 10,135 short tons, raw value (STRV) from last month as a reduction in suga
production more than offsets small increases in beginning stocks and imports. Louisiana sugar production is reduced by 82,85
2.030 million. With the sugar campaign ended, USDA contacted mills regarding final crop year production. Mills confirmed th
were off from earlier USDA estimates due to the freeze in late December. Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 24
to 2.014 million but is decreased in Texas by 9,790 STRV to 87,182. Both of these changes are from processors’ forecasts in th
Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Beet sugar production is increased by 51,898 STRV to 5.100 million. Based on sugar productio
August through December in the SMD, USDA increases its projection of sucrose recovery from 15.000 to 15.204 percent. Cum
sucrose recovery for the 5 months is estimated at 15.433 percent. This estimate is statistically close to full season recovery, b
exercising some caution in recognition of statistical variance. Even so, five-month averages in all major regions (Red River Vall
Michigan, Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest) exceed 10-year averages. (Processors in SMD are more optimistic forecasting n
recovery at 15.592 percent.) The increase due to the higher recovery rate is offset partially by a 10,000 STRV reduction in Aug
September 2023 production due to the closure of the beet facility in Sidney, Montana. Imports are increased by 4,725 STRV d
upward revision of raw sugar imports from the 2021/22 TRQ entering in December. With no change in use, the supply change
ending stocks, now projected at 1.874 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.8 percent.
The 2022/23 Mexico supply and use is virtually unchanged from last month. USDA still projects production at 5.900 million m
(MT). Most factories started late this season, but most have caught up on harvested area from the perspective of the previou
campaigns and from the level predicted by CONADESUCA in its pre-season production estimate. There still are significant vari
amongst mills, especially those producing refinado sugar. Cumulative sugarcane yields and sucrose recovery through January
far below corresponding historical levels through the same date and below CONADESUCA forecast. We are soon to enter the
which USDA forecasting based on to-date progress has enough statistical validity for updating the USDA projection.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect repor
December production, ending stock, and trade data.
For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter is raised for the first quarter but is partly offset by
carcass weights as cow slaughter is larger than previously forecast. For the second quarter, steer and heifer slaughter is lower
fourth-quarter 2022 placements were lower than expected, implying fewer animals available for marketing in the second qua
fed cattle slaughter, coupled with lower average carcass weights, more than offsets higher expected cow slaughter. Pork prod
lowered on slightly lighter first-half carcass weights. Broiler production is reduced for the first three quarters based on recent
data and the current pace of slaughter. Turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is reduced slightly on recent layer flo
and slower-than-expected production growth in December 2022.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised for the year with a higher first-quarter forecast partially offset by lower second-quarter impo
beef export forecast and the pork trade projections are unchanged. Broiler imports and turkey exports are both lowered. Egg
are projected higher.
For 2023, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in first-half demand for fed cattle in the face of tightening feedlot num
prices are lowered for first-half 2023 reflecting current price movements. First-half broiler prices are projected lower on weak
expected prices thus far in 2023. Egg prices for the first quarter are raised on recent prices.
Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect reported December production, ending stock, and trade data.
For 2023, milk production is forecast lower as weaker milk prices are expected to result in lower cow inventories. The Cattle r
estimated that the January 1, 2023 dairy cow inventory was only fractionally above 2022 and that producers were retaining ab
percent fewer heifers for addition to the dairy herd. Output per cow is also reduced slightly. On both fat- and skim-solids bas
for 2023 are raised on higher cheese and milk protein containing products, while exports are reduced on lower sales of skim m
powder, cheese, and several other products.
Prices are lowered for cheese as stocks remain relatively large and domestic demand is expected to remain generally soft. Bu
are unchanged as higher early-year prices are offset by weaker prices later in the year. Nonfat dry milk powder and whey pric
lowered on expectations of increased export competition and somewhat softer international demand. Both Class III and Class
are lowered from last month, reflecting lower product price forecasts, and the all milk price is reduced to 20.70 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower mill use and higher ending stocks relative
month, while production and exports are unchanged. The mill use forecast is lowered 100,000 bales to 2.1 million on recent l
of monthly utilization. The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 83 cents per pou
unchanged from January.
World 2022/23 cotton ending stocks are 850,000 bales lower this month as expected output falls 1 million bales and consump
projected 190,000 lower. India’s crop is reduced 1 million bales as a continued slow pace of market arrivals tempers previous
and Franc Zone production is 600,000 bales lower this month due to insect damage this season. China’s crop is raised 500,000
record pace of Xinjiang inspections in January, and Pakistan’s is raised 200,000 bales on favorable arrivals data. World 2022/2
consumption is 200,000 bales lower this month as a 500,000-bale increase for China is more than offset by reduced expectatio
Indonesia, Pakistan, the United States, and Vietnam. World trade is projected 1.3 million bales lower, with prospective impor
Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, and Bangladesh, and prospective exports lower for India, Brazil, Cote d’Ivoire, Benin, and Egypt.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 8
WASDE - 633 - 9
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity
tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus
United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet, and mixed grains.
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only.
4/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment
of export/import imbalances.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 10
Foreign 3/ Output
Total
Suppl y Trade
Total
Use 2/
Ending
St ocks
Oilseeds 2020/21 483.23 577.83 129.3 446.25 106.74
2021/22 (Est.) 475.44 581 118.9 445.46 108.38
filler filler filler filler filler
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year.
2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
February
2023
WASDE -
633 - 11
U.S. Wheat
Supply and
Use 1/
2021 2022
/22 2022/23 /23
2020/21 Est. Proj. Proj.
Jan Feb
Area Planted 44.5 46.7 45.7 45.7
Area 36.8 37.1 35.5 35.5
Harvested
Yield per 49.7 44.3 46.5 46.5
Harvested
Beginning 1028 845 698 698
Acre
Stocks
Production 1828 1646 1650 1650
Imports 100 95 120 120
Supply, Total 2956 2587 2468 2468
Food 961 972 977 975
Seed 64 58 69 70
Feed and 93 59 80 80
H
Residual
Domestic, 1117 1088 1126 1125
a
Total
Exports r 994 800 775 775
d
Use, Total 2111 1888 1901 1900
Ending Stocks R 845 698 567 568
Avg. Farm e 5.05 7.63 9.1 9
Price ($/bu) 2/ d
W
B
i W
u
n Hard h
U.S. Wheat t Red
s
i
Year
by Class: h
beginning e Sprin Soft Red t Duru
Supply and e
June r g Winter e m Total
Use 1 l
Millions
2021/22 (Est.) Beginning Stocks ### 235 ###
85 27 845
Production ### 297 361
### 38 1646
Supply, Total 3/ ### 575 449
### 105 2587
Domestic Use ### 220 238
### 67 1088
Exports ### 209 112
### 14 800
Use, Total ### 429 350
### 81 1888
Ending Stocks, Total ### 146 ###
99 24 698
Note: Totals
may not add
due to
rounding. 1/
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 12
January February
WASDE - 633 - 13
BARLEY
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
January February
Filler
OATS
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
January February
Filler
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for
sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by
farmers.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 14
LONG-GRAIN RICE
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
January February
MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN 2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken
kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2017/18-1.4; 2018/19-2.1; 2019/20-
1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of
the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are
converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced
divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/
Exports by type of rice are estimated. 9/ The California medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice
that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year.
Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ. 10/ Marketing year beginning
October 1.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 15
SOYBEAN OIL
January February
Filler
Million Pounds
Beginning Stocks 1853 2131 1991 1991
Production 4/ 25023 26143 26310 26245
Imports 302 303 300 300
Supply, Total 27177 28578 28601 28536
Domestic Disappearance 23314 24813 25900 25900
Biofuel 3/ 8920 10348 11600 11600
Food, Feed & other Industrial 14394 14465 14300 14300
Exports 1731 1773 800 700
Use, Total 25046 26587 26700 26600
Ending stocks 2131 1991 1901 1936
Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 56.87 72.98 68 68
Total
SOYBEAN MEAL
January February
Filler
1 2 3 4
WASDE - 633 - 16
Exports 49 29 35 35
Deliveries 12277 12578 12605 12605
Food 12161 12470 12500 12500
Other 5/ 116 107 105 105
Miscellaneous 40 81 0 0
Total Use 12367 12688 12640 12640
Ending Stocks 1705 1820 1885 1874
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.8 14.3 14.9 14.8
Total
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Data and projections correspond to category components from "Sweetener Market
Data" (SMD). 2/ Production projections for 2021/22 and 2022/23 are based on Crop Production and/or processor
projections/industry data and/or sugar ICEC analysis where appropriate. 3/ For 2021/22, WTO raw sugar TRQ
shortfall (158) and for 2022/23 (255). 4/ Composed of sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/
Transfers accompanying deliveries for sugar-containing products to be exported (SCP) and polyhydric alcohol
manufacture (POLY), and deliveries for livestock feed and ethanol. Total refiner license transfers for SCP and POLY
inclusive of WASDE-reported deliveries: 2020/21 -- 298; estimated 2021/22 -- 303; projected 2022/23 -- 315
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
Beginning Ending
Stocks Production Imports Domestic 2/ Exports Stocks
1/ HFCS consumption by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): 2020/21 = 1,320; Estimated 2020/21 = 1,291;
Projected 2022/23 = 1,291; Estimated Oct.- Dec. 2022 = 312; Estimated Oct. - Dec. 2021 = 322. Footnote source for
estimate: Comite Nacional para el Desarollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes deliveries for
consumption, Mexico's products export program (IMMEX), and Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical
Adjustments. IMMEX: 2021/22 (532 est =508 dom.+24 import); 2022/23 (493 proj = 468 dom.+25 import).
Statistical Adjustments: 2021/22 (-16), 2022/23 (0).
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 17
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing
year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference
between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 18
World Wheat
Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric
Tons)
Beginning Domestic Domestic Ending
2020/21 Stocks Production Imports Feed Total 2/ Exports Stocks
World 3/ 298.22 774.55 194.78 157.9 782.71 203.33 290.06
World Less China 148.21 640.3 184.16 117.9 632.71 202.57 145.94
United States 27.99 49.75 2.73 2.54 30.41 27.05 23
Total Foreign 270.24 724.8 192.06 155.36 752.3 176.29 267.06
Major Exporters 4/ 32.5 322.46 6.67 72.81 179.33 147.42 34.88
Argentina 2.46 17.64 0.01 0.05 6.25 11.53 2.32
Australia 2.7 31.92 0.2 4.5 8.03 23.77 3.02
Canada 5.5 35.44 0.55 4.16 9.1 26.43 5.95
European Union 5/
13.11 126.68 5.39 42.5 104.75 29.74 10.7
Russia 7.23 85.35 0.4 19 42.5 39.1 11.38
Ukraine 1.5 25.42 0.13 2.6 8.7 16.85 1.51
Major Importers 6/ 193.47 200.43 124.37 57.58 323.6 12.62 182.04
Bangladesh 1.76 1.18 7.2 0.5 8 0 2.14
Brazil 1.99 6.25 6.4 0.4 11.8 0.93 1.91
China 150.02 134.25 10.62 40 150 0.76 144.12
Japan 1.1 1 5.49 0.65 6.25 0.3 1.04
N. Africa 7/ 14.36 15.81 28.5 1.75 46.62 0.8 11.24
Nigeria 0.3 0.06 6.59 0.05 5.55 0.6 0.79
Sel. Mideast 8/ 11.62 20.65 17.7 3.54 39.03 0.62 10.31
Southeast Asia 9/ 5.91 0 25.18 7.29 25 1.14 4.95
Selected Other
India 24.7 107.86 0.02 6.5 102.22 2.56 27.8
Kazakhstan 0.66 14.26 1 1.45 6.25 8.19 1.48
United Kingdom 2.44 9.66 3.22 5.96 13.46 0.45 1.42
Beginning Domestic Domestic Ending
2021/22 Est. Stocks Production Imports Feed Total 2/ Exports Stocks
World 3/ 290.06 779.33 199.23 160.29 792.69 202.86 276.7
World Less China 145.94 642.38 189.66 125.29 644.69 201.99 134.94
United States 23 44.8 2.59 1.6 29.61 21.78 19.01
Total Foreign 267.06 734.53 196.64 158.69 763.08 181.08 257.69
Major Exporters 4/ 34.88 327.19 5.82 78.7 185.82 142.36 39.71
Argentina 2.32 22.15 0 0.05 6.15 15.98 2.35
Australia 3.02 36.24 0.21 5 8.53 27.51 3.43
Canada 5.95 22.42 0.55 5.15 10.15 15.12 3.66
European Union 5/ 10.7 138.22 4.61 45 108.25 31.92 13.36
WASDE - 633 - 19
WASDE - 633 - 20
1/ Aggregate of local
marketing years. Coarse
grains include corn, sorghum,
barley, oats, rye, millet, and
mixed grains (for U.S.
excludes millet and mixed
grains). 2/ Total foreign and
world use adjusted to reflect
the differences in world
imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not
balance due to differences in
marketing years, grain in
transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some
countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Brazil, Canada,
Russia, South Africa, and
Ukraine. 5/ European Union,
Japan, Mexico, selected
North Africa and Middle
East, Saudi Arabia, Southeast
Asia, and South Korea. 6/
Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/
Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel,
Jordan, Libya, Morocco,
Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand, and
Vietnam.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 21
WASDE - 633 - 22
1/ Aggregate of local
marketing years. 2/
Total foreign and world
use adjusted to reflect
the differences in world
imports and exports. 3/
World imports and
exports may not balance
due to differences in
marketing years, grain
in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some
countries. 4/ Argentina,
Brazil, Russia, South
Africa and Ukraine. 5/
Egypt, European Union,
Japan, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, and
South Korea. 6/ Trade
excludes intra-trade. 7/
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand,
and Vietnam.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 23
WASDE - 633 - 24
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports
and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may
not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Bangladesh,
China, Nigeria, European Union, Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 6/ Trade excludes
intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 25
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world
imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports
and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and
Vietnam. 5/ Bangladesh, China, Nigeria, European Union, Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, and
Saudi Arabia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/
Central American and Caribbean countries.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 26
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding
and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia,
Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use
and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries
and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin,
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the
countries and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 27
Total Foreign Jan 81.59 100.72 41.62 108.65 29.66 -0.12 85.73
Feb 81.49 99.69 40.44 108.56 28.38 -0.12 84.78
Major Exporters 4/ Jan 32.11 57.74 2.45 31.16 25.54 -0.17 35.78
Feb 32.04 56.03 2.32 31.08 24.25 -0.17 35.23
Central Asia 5/ Jan 2.66 5 0.08 3.77 1.47 0 2.5
Feb 2.66 5 0.08 3.77 1.47 0 2.5
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Jan 1.61 5.42 3/ 0.1 5.19 0 1.74
Feb 1.61 4.81 3/ 0.1 4.73 0 1.59
S. Hemis. 7/ Jan 18.91 20.28 0.15 4.18 15.28 -0.18 20.06
Feb 18.91 20.18 0.15 4.15 15.16 -0.18 20.11
Australia Jan 4.86 5 3/ 0.01 5.9 -0.19 4.14
Feb 4.86 5 3/ 0.01 6.1 -0.19 3.94
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to
rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for
Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on
supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote
d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa,
Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 -
28
World Soybean
Supply and Use
1/
(Million Metric
Tons)
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Domestic Exports Ending
2020/21 Stocks Crush Total Stocks
World 2/ 94.55 368.52 165.55 315.94 363.87 164.99 99.75
World Less China 69.93 348.92 65.81 222.94 251.13 164.92 68.61
United States 14.28 114.75 0.54 58.26 60.91 61.67 6.99
Total Foreign 80.27 253.77 165.01 257.69 302.96 103.33 92.76
Major Exporters 3/ 47.42 197.39 5.92 90.21 100.84 94.95 54.94
Argentina 26.65 46.2 4.82 40.16 47.41 5.2 25.06
Brazil 20.42 139.5 1.02 46.68 49.88 81.65 29.4
Paraguay 0.33 9.9 0.02 3.3 3.47 6.33 0.45
Major Importers 4/ 27.98 23.25 133.39 122.1 149.8 0.27 34.56
China 24.61 19.6 99.74 93 112.74 0.07 31.15
European Union 1.72 2.6 14.79 15.8 17.36 0.19 1.56
Southeast Asia 0.98 0.59 9.68 4.74 10.04 0.01 1.2
Mexico 0.37 0.25 6.1 6.2 6.25 0 0.46
2022/23 Proj.
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Dom esti c Exports Ending
Stocks Crush Total Stocks
WASDE - 633 -
29
World Soybean
Meal Supply and
Use 1/
(Million Metric
Tons)
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Exports Ending
2020/21 Stocks Total Stocks
World 2/ 15.21 248.22 64.44 243.89 69.35 14.64
World Less China 15.21 174.56 64.37 171.21 68.29 14.64
United States 0.31 45.87 0.71 34.18 12.41 0.31
Total Foreign 14.9 202.34 63.73 209.71 56.94 14.33
Major Exporters 3/ 6.54 75.5 0.26 28.33 47.3 6.67
Argentina 2.57 31.32 0 3.28 28.33 2.29
Brazil 3.77 36.18 0.02 19.2 16.58 4.2
India 0.2 8 0.24 5.85 2.4 0.19
Major Importers 4/ 2.63 22.86 37.25 59.63 1.12 2
European Union 0.79 12.48 16.51 28.39 0.85 0.55
Mexico 0.18 4.9 1.85 6.73 0.01 0.2
Southeast Asia 5/ 1.48 3.69 17.05 20.86 0.27 1.1
China 0 73.66 0.07 72.68 1.05 0
2022/23 Proj.
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Stocks Total Stocks
WASDE - 633 - 30
2022/23 Proj.
Beginning Production Imports Dom esti c Exports Ending
Stocks Total Stocks
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-
September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and
to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/
Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, Bangladesh, and North Africa. 5/ Algeria, Egypt,
Morocco, and Tunisia. Totals may not add due to rounding.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 31
Year and Beef Pork Red Meat Broiler Turkey Total Red Meat Egg Milk
Quarter 2/ Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Million Pounds Mil doz Bil lbs
2021 Annual 27948 27675 55815 44899 5558 50995 106810 9238 226.3
2022 I 7022 6904 13972 11170 1374 12678 26650 2295 56.3
II 7069 6639 13755 11279 1275 12698 26453 2207 57.8
III 7147 6533 13725 11896 1264 13311 27037 2246 56.5
IV 7053 6919 14018 11857 1310 13306 27324 2261 56
Annual
Jan Est. 28302 26996 55482 46245 5223 52027 107509 9023 226.8
Feb Est. 28290 26995 55470 46201 5222 51993 107462 9009 226.6
2023 I* 6830 7010 13885 11350 1335 12815 26700 2255 56.9
II* 6595 6560 13202 11550 1380 13065 26267 2325 58.2
III* 6530 6650 13226 12000 1420 13560 26786 2375 56.8
IV* 6540 7215 13802 11800 1425 13350 27152 2430 56.4
Annual
Jan Proj. 26445 27480 54108 46900 5560 52985 107093 9410 229.2
Feb Proj. 26495 27435 54114 46700 5560 52790 106904 9385 228.3
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/
Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale,
National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by
farmers for all milk.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 32
Productio
Item Beginning n Total Ending Total Per Capita
stocks 1/ Imports Supply Exports Stocks Use 2/ 3/
Million Pounds /
4
Beef 2021 716 28016 3346 32078 3441 676 27962 58.9
2022 Est. Jan 676 28370 3376 32422 3542 700 28180 59.2
Feb 676 28358 3391 32425 3536 723 28165 59.1
2023 Proj. Jan 700 26513 3400 30613 3090 640 26883 56.3
Feb 723 26563 3425 30711 3090 640 26981 56.3
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Pork 2021 467 27690 1180 29337 7026 446 21865 51.1
2022 Est. Jan 446 27010 1344 28800 6334 500 21966 51.2
Feb 446 27009 1344 28799 6338 506 21955 51.1
2023 Proj. Jan 500 27495 1005 29000 6350 515 22135 51.4
Feb 506 27450 1005 28961 6350 515 22096 51.1
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Total Red 2021 1217 55906 4890 62014 10470 1147 50397 111.5
Meat 5/
2022 Est. Jan 1147 55574 5075 61796 9881 1230 50685 111.8
Feb 1147 55561 5093 61801 9880 1257 50665 111.6
2023 Proj. Jan 1230 54200 4770 60199 9444 1181 49574 109.2
Feb 1257 54206 4797 60260 9446 1181 49633 108.9
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Broiler 2021 830 44419 155 45403 7355 705 37343 96.5
2022 Est. Jan 705 45750 179 46634 7282 850 38502 99.3
Feb 705 45707 176 46588 7278 892 38418 98.9
2023 Proj. Jan 850 46398 180 47428 7315 830 39283 100.9
Feb 892 46200 160 47253 7315 840 39098 100.2
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Total 2021 1057 50514 180 51751 7947 874 42930 113.3
Poultry 6/
2022 Est. Jan 874 51532 274 52680 7718 1019 43943 115.6
Feb 874 51498 268 52641 7715 1087 43838 115.2
2023 Proj. Jan 1019 52483 306 53808 7739 1004 45065 118.2
Feb 1087 52290 286 53663 7701 1030 44932 117.6
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Red Meat & Poultry 2021 2274 106420 5070 113765 18418 2021 93327 224.8
Red Meat & Poultry
2022 Est. Jan 2021 107106 5349 114476 17599 2249 94628 227.4
Feb 2021 107059 5361 114442 17595 2344 94503 226.8
2023 Proj. Jan 2249 106682 5076 114007 17183 2185 94639 227.4
Feb 2344 106496 5083 113923 17147 2211 94566 226.5
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/
Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
February 2023
WASDE - 633 - 33
2020 2021 2022 Est. 2022 Est. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Jan Feb Jan Feb
Eggs Million Dozen
Supply
Beginning Stocks 31.6 24.5 19.1 19.1 19 18.8
Production 9291.8 9237.8 9022.8 9009.1 9410 9385
Imports 15.5 18.2 24.2 25.9 20.5 26
Total Supply 9338.9 9280.5 9066.2 9054.1 9449.5 9429.8
Use
Exports 344 392.2 223.8 226.5 240 240
Hatching Use 1078.5 1103.9 1119 1118 1150 1140
Ending Stocks 24.5 19.1 19 18.8 20 20
Disappearance
Total 7891.8 7765.3 7704.4 7690.9 8039.5 8029.8
Per Capita (number) 285.4 280.4 277.5 276.6 288.6 287.4
Total
2020 2021 2022 Est. 2022 Est. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Jan Feb Jan Feb
Milk Billion Pounds
Production 223.3 226.3 226.8 226.6 229.2 228.3
Farm Use 1.1 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
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2020 2021 2022 Est. 2022 Est. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Jan Feb Jan Feb
Product Prices 1/ Dollars Per Pound
Cheese 1.924 1.676 2.1122 2.1122 1.93 1.86
Butter 1.581 1.733 2.8665 2.8665 2.33 2.33
Nonfat Dry Milk 1.042 1.269 1.6851 1.6851 1.34 1.225
Dry Whey 0.362 0.574 0.6035 0.6035 0.415 0.365
Dollars Per Cwt
Filler
Milk Prices 2/
Class III 18.16 17.08 21.94 21.94 18.85 17.9
Class IV 13.49 16.09 24.47 24.47 19.25 18.25
All Milk 3/ 18.13 18.53 25.55 25.56 21.6 20.7
WASDE - 633 - 35
Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a record of the February projection and the final Estimate.
Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2
out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.6
percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 0.9
percent. The average difference between the February projection and the final estimate is 2.5 million
tons, ranging from 0 million to 7.3 million tons. The February projection has been below the
estimate 31 times and above 10 times.
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