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Note: This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and
U.S. prices for 2017/18. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2018 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and
dairy products. Due to spring planting still underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and being several months away
in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Forecasts for U.S. winter wheat area, yield,
and production are from the May 10 Crop Production report. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 Prospective
Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project 2017/18 harvested acreage and yield are
noted in each table.
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2017/18 are projected down 9 percent from 2016/17 on lower
production, which is partially offset by higher beginning stocks. All wheat production for 2017/18 is
projected at 1,820 million bushels, down nearly 500 million bushels from the prior year. The year-to-year
decline is due to a sharp reduction in planted area and projected lower yields. The all wheat yield is
projected at 47.2 bushels per acre, down 10 percent from last year’s record. The first survey-based
forecast for 2017/18 winter wheat production is down sharply with the lowest harvested area in more than
a century and lower yields. Winter wheat benefited from diminishing drought conditions in the Plains and
Midwest. However, a late April snow storm affected large portions of the Hard Red Winter wheat belt,
especially western Kansas. Combined spring wheat and Durum production for 2017/18 is projected to
decline 10 percent on lower area and a return to trend yields.
Total use for 2017/18 is projected down 2 percent on lower exports and feed and residual use. Exports
are projected at 1.0 billion bushels, down 35 million from the previous year’s revised level but above the
five-year average. The EU is expected to regain export market share following last year’s small crop and
quality problems. U.S. feed and residual use is projected down 20 million bushels on lower supplies. U.S.
ending stocks are projected to decline 245 million bushels to 914 million, the lowest in three years. The
season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.65 per bushel. The mid-point of this range is up
$0.35 from the previous year’s low level.
Global wheat supplies are projected to decline fractionally as higher beginning stocks are more than offset
by a production decline following last year’s record. Total wheat production is projected at 737.8 million
tons, the second highest total on record. Global wheat consumption is projected down slightly from last
year’s record with reduced feed and residual usage partially offset by increased food use. Global imports
are expected to be a record for the fifth consecutive year. Global ending stocks are projected at a record
258.3 million tons, up 2.9 million from 2016/17.
COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, domestic use,
exports and ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, down from last year’s record
high with a lower forecast area and yield. The yield projection of 170.7 bushels per acre is based on a
weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer weather, estimated using the
1988-2016 time period. The yield model includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the
asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation. The smaller corn crop is partly offset by the largest
projected beginning stocks since 1988/89, leaving total corn supplies down from a year ago but still the
second highest on record.
Total U.S. corn use in 2017/18 is forecast to decline 2 percent from a year ago as a slight increase in
domestic use is more than offset by lower exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected to
rise 80 million bushels to 7.0 billion due to increased use of corn to produce ethanol for fuel and expected
WASDE-565-2
growth in non-ethanol FSI. Corn used to produce ethanol is up 50 million bushels, reflecting expectations
of gasoline consumption growth, reduced sorghum used to produce ethanol, higher expected blending
and continued global ethanol import demand. Projected feed and residual use declines as a smaller crop
and increased use of ethanol by-products more than offsets growth in grain consuming animal units. U.S.
corn exports are down 350 million bushels, as a 1.0-billion-bushel year-over-year increase in the
combined corn exports of Brazil and Argentina during 2016/17 (local marketing years beginning in March
2017 and ending February 2018) is expected to cut into the 2017/18 U.S. shipping season. With total
supply falling faster than use, 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks of corn are down 185 million bushels. The
season-average farm price is projected at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint from
2016/17.
The global coarse grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, increased use and sharply reduced
ending stocks. Corn production is forecast down from a year ago, with the largest declines in China and
the United States. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for the EU and Canada. Global corn use is
up 9 million tons (1 percent), while global corn imports are projected to increase 7 million tons. Notable
increases in corn imports include Vietnam, Egypt, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Iran. Global corn
ending stocks are down from last year’s record high and if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14.
The drop largely reflects forecast declines for China and the United States.
For China, total corn supply is down 14 million tons in 2017/18, based on projected declines in beginning
stocks and production. Area is reduced based on planting intentions published by the National Bureau of
Statistics. On the demand side, feed and residual use is expected to increase based on continued
relatively low internal market prices, efforts by the government to promote use of domestic supplies and
reduced imports of corn substitutes. Projected FSI use is higher based on expectations of growth in
domestic use and exports of corn-based industrial products.
RICE: U.S. 2017/18 all rice production is forecast at 201.0 million cwt, down 23.1 million from the previous
year, all on a large reduction in long grain acreage as indicated by the NASS Prospective Plantings survey
issued March 31. The forecast 2017/18 yields are based on long-term historical trends and are higher for
long grain but slightly lower for combined medium- and short-grain. Total 2017/18 rice supplies are forecast
to decrease 7 percent from the previous year to 273.1 million cwt, primarily on the reduction in long grain.
U.S. 2017/18 total use is projected at 235.0 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year with both domestic
and residual use and exports projected lower. Long-grain exports are projected at 76.0 million cwt, down
3.0 million from 2016/17 on reduced exportable supplies. Combined medium- and short-grain exports are
projected at 34.0 million cwt, down 1 million on increased export competition from Australia and Egypt. All
rice 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 38.1 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year. Long-grain
stocks are projected at 20.7 million cwt, down 8 million from 2016/17, while combined medium- and short-
grain are projected 2 million cwt lower at 14.6 million. The 2017/18 all rice season-average farm price is
projected at $10.70 to $11.70/cwt, up $0.80 from the previous year’s revised midpoint.
Total 2017/18 global supplies are at 599.9 million tons, up 2.6 million from 2016/17, based on larger carry-in
stocks. World 2017/18 rice production is projected at 481.3 million tons, down fractionally from last year’s
record output. Total world rice consumption is projected at a record 480.1 million tons, up from the revised
2016/17 level of 478.7 million. Global exports are projected at 42.2 million tons, up 0.8 million from 2016/17.
Thailand and India are expected to be the leading rice exporters for 2017/18, both at 10.0 million tons.
World 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 119.8 million tons, up marginally from 2016/17. China
continues to hold the majority of global rice stocks as its growing production and large imports continue to
outpace consumption.
OILSEEDS: The 2017/18 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending
stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4,255 million bushels, down 52 million from last year’s record
crop with a forecast lower trend yield more than offsetting higher harvested area. With sharply higher
beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4,715 million bushels, up 4 percent from 2016/17.
WASDE-565-3
The U.S. soybean crush for 2017/18 is projected at 1,950 million bushels, up 25 million from the revised
2016/17 forecast. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase with expected gains in
U.S. meat production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 12.4 million short tons, leaving the U.S
share of global trade slightly lower than in 2016/17. With increased supplies and lower projected prices,
U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2,150 million bushels, up 100 million from the revised 2016/17
projection. Despite sharply higher beginning stocks in South America this fall, a smaller projected harvest
in early 2018 leaves 2017/18 total supplies almost unchanged from 2016/17, limiting projected gains for
South American soybean exports. With forecast global soybean import growth of 5 percent, the U.S.
soybean export share is projected at 39 percent, up slightly from 2016/17 and near the 5-year average.
U.S. ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 480 million bushels, up 45 million from the revised
2016/17 forecast. The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price range is forecast at $8.30 to $10.30
per bushel compared with $9.55 per bushel in 2016/17. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 to
$335 per short ton, compared with $320 per ton for 2016/17. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 30.0 to
34.0 cents per pound compared with 31.75 cents for 2016/17.
The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, crush, and exports
compared to last year. Global oilseed production is projected at 572.1 million tons, up 6.0 million from
2016/17. Growth in rapeseed, cottonseed, peanut, sunflowerseed, copra, and palm kernel is partly offset
by lower soybean production. Soybean production is projected down 3.4 million tons to 344.7 million
mainly on declines from last year’s records for the United States, Brazil, and Paraguay as yields return to
trend levels. Conversely, soybean production is forecast up for Canada, China, Bolivia, and Ukraine.
Rapeseed production is projected to increase 6 percent to 72.8 million with increases for Canada, the EU,
Ukraine, and India.
Global oilseed crush is forecast to increase 17 million tons to 486.0 million in 2017/18 driven by higher
demand for protein meals and oils. Global protein meal consumption is projected to expand 4 percent in
2017/18. China’s soybean meal equivalent consumption is expected to grow at 5 percent, similar to last
year but below the prior 5-year average. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected at 189.0 million
tons, up 5.4 million led by increases for India and China. Soy oil production gains are expected for China
and palm oil production gains for Indonesia and Malaysia.
Global soybean exports are projected at 149.6 million tons, up 5.0 million from 2016/17. Imports are
expected to grow for China, Egypt, Vietnam, and the EU. Lower global production has led to a 1.3-million-
ton decrease in soybean stocks, particularly in Brazil and Argentina where stocks are expected to decline
by 2.6 million tons combined. Partially offsetting are higher stocks in the United States and Canada.
SUGAR: U.S. fiscal year 2016/17 beet sugar production is decreased 64,000 short tons, raw value
(STRV) based on lower expected sucrose recovery. Cane sugar production in Texas is reduced by 2,795
STRV based on final processor reporting. TRQ imports entering under Free Trade Agreements are
increased by 2,555 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 100,000 STRV based on
pace to date. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are estimated at 1.477 million STRV.
Sugar production for 2017/18 is projected at 8.700 million STRV, the sum of beet sugar production of
4.950 million and cane sugar production of 3.750 million. Imports for 2017/18 are projected at 3.858
million STRV and are comprised of TRQ imports of 1.373 million; re-export imports of 175,000; imports
from Mexico of 2.301 million; and high-tier tariff imports of 10,000. Projected 2017/18 TRQ imports of
specialty sugar include only the WTO minimum quantity because any additional quantities have not been
announced by the Secretary of Agriculture. Exports for 2017/18 are projected at 25,000 STRV. Deliveries
for human consumption are expected to increase 1.0 percent year-over-year to 12.322 million STRV.
Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected residually at 1.534 million, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio
of 12.3 percent.
For 2016/17, Mexico sugar exports to non-U.S. destinations are reduced by 58,919 metric tons (MT) to
110,000 based on pace to date. Product re-export deliveries under the IMMEX program are increased
60,000 MT to 390,000 to match the total now estimated by Mexico authorities for 2015/16. Ending stocks
are estimated residually at 1.342 million MT, an increase of 48,919 over last month. For 2017/18, Mexico
WASDE-565-4
sugar production is projected at 6.225 million MT based on a sugarcane crop of 55.000 million and a
recovery of about 11.3 percent. Combined per capita consumption of sugar and HFCS for 2017/18 is
projected the same as for 2016/17. With flat HFCS consumption, sugar deliveries for human consumption
for 2017/18 are projected at 4.528 million. Exports to the United States are based on U.S. Needs as
defined in the Suspension Agreements but, assuming additionally, that U.S. specialty sugar imports will be
set at the same level as initially established for 2016/17.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total red meat and poultry production for 2018 is projected higher
than 2017 on increased livestock and poultry production. Cattle placements during second half 2017 and
early 2018 are forecast higher; these cattle will be slaughtered during 2018, supporting higher beef
production. Carcass weights are expected to be higher. Pork production is forecast higher on expected
increased farrowings and continued gains in sow productivity. Higher broiler and egg production reflects
expanded production in response to moderate feed prices and relatively strong 2017 prices. Turkey
production is forecast higher as demand strengthens.
Total red meat and poultry production for 2017 is reduced from the previous month on lower beef, pork and
broiler production. Beef and pork production is reduced on lighter expected cattle and hog carcass weights.
Broiler production is lowered on lower forecast second-quarter production. Turkey production is raised on
higher first-quarter slaughter data. The 2017 egg production forecast is reduced on lower first-quarter table
egg production and lower expected hatching production for the remainder of the year.
For 2018, larger beef supplies and lower prices are expected to support stronger U.S. beef exports. Beef
imports are forecast higher as supplies of domestic processing-grade beef remain relatively tight and
supplies of beef increase in key exporting countries. Pork exports are forecast to increase as expanding
supplies and competitive prices support demand for U.S. pork. U.S. pork imports are forecast to decline as
domestic supplies are expected to pressure prices. Broiler and turkey exports are forecast higher on
expected continued gains in foreign demand.
The 2017 beef and pork export forecasts are raised as demand is expected to remain strong. The beef
import forecast is raised on recent trade data for the first quarter, but pork imports are reduced. Changes to
the 2017 poultry and egg trade forecast reflect first-quarter trade data.
Cattle and hog prices for 2018 are forecast to decline relative to 2017 as both cattle and hog supplies are
expected to increase. Turkey and egg prices are forecast to increase in 2018 on increased demand. The
2018 broiler price is forecast lower, as production increases and supplies of competing meats are higher.
The 2017 cattle and hog price forecasts are raised on recent price strength and expectations that demand
will remain relatively firm through the year. The broiler price forecast is increased as second quarter prices
are raised due to recent price strength. Turkey and egg prices are forecast lower for the remainder of the
year as relatively large supplies pressure prices.
Milk production for 2018 is forecast higher on stronger milk prices and moderate feed prices. Commercial
exports on fat and skim-solids bases are forecast higher on stronger global demand. Fat basis imports are
forecast modestly higher in 2018 while skim-solids basis imports are forecast lower relative to 2017.
Cheese and non-fat dry milk prices are forecast higher than 2017, but butter and whey prices are forecast
lower. The increase in the Class III price reflects higher forecast cheese prices which more than offset lower
whey prices. The Class IV price is higher as the higher non-fat dry milk price more than offset lower butter
prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $18.55 per cwt for 2018.
Forecast milk production in 2017 is lowered from the previous month on slower growth in milk per cow. Fat
basis imports are lowered from the previous month while skim-solids basis imports are increased.
Commercial exports are forecast higher for both fat and skim-solids bases. Non-fat dry milk price forecasts
are raised from last month while butter is lower. Cheese and whey prices are unchanged. The Class III
price is unchanged while the Class IV is higher than the previous month. The milk price is forecast at
$17.35 to $17.85 per cwt.
WASDE-565-5
NOTE: U.S. dairy import, export, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect changes in fat basis and skim-
solids basis conversions and changes in the products used for the aggregate stocks estimates. Historical
revisions will be available after 1:00pm EDT at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/historical.htm.
Documentation of the changes is available at https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-
data/documentation/
COTTON: A projected 2017/18 U.S. cotton crop of 19.2 million bales is expected to sharply increase next
season’s ending stocks. Production is anticipated to rise 12 percent from 2016/17, based on 12.2 million
planted acres as indicated in Prospective Plantings, combined with below-average abandonment − due to
relatively favorable moisture − and average yields. Domestic mill use is projected higher at 3.4 million
bales, while exports are expected to fall to 14.0 million, as competitors’ supplies grow. Ending stocks are
projected at 5.0 million bales, or 29 percent of total use. The preliminary range for the marketing year
average price received by producers is 54.0 to 74.0 cents per pound.
For 2016/17, U.S. cotton production is reduced marginally from last month. The export forecast is
increased to 14.5 million bales, reflecting higher-than-anticipated export sales to date, with ending stocks
lowered accordingly.
The world 2017/18 cotton projections show a decline in stocks of 2.4 million bales, as consumption
exceeds production for the third consecutive season. Global production is expected to rise nearly 7
percent, despite marginally lower average yields, as area rebounds to its highest level in 3 years.
Production is forecast to rise in all major producing countries, led by the United States (2.0 million bales
higher) and India (1.5 million bales higher). Global consumption is projected to rise 2.3 percent, as a
growing world economy drives mill use higher around the world. Projected world trade is raised slightly
from 2016/17, as import-oriented consumers such as Vietnam and Bangladesh are accounting for a larger
share of world consumption. Ending stocks are projected at 87.1 million bales, 75 percent of world
consumption. Falling China stocks exceed the projected global decline while stocks outside of China rise
for the second consecutive year. Despite the projected decrease, China stocks are still equivalent to more
than 100 percent of China’s total disappearance.
For 2016/17, world production is reduced marginally from last month, while consumption is raised slightly.
Ending stocks lowered 1.4 million bales. Consumption and imports are slightly higher in China, and
ending stocks are lower in India, the United States, and China.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board,
Seth D. Meyer, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committees.
APPROVED BY:
MICHAEL YOUNG
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
WASDE-565-6
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
In 2017, the WASDE report will be released on Jun. 9, Jul. 12, Aug. 10,
Sep. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 9, Dec. 12.
WASDE-565-7
T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S
Page
Highlights............................................................................................................. 1
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees .................................................... 6
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains .................................................................. 8
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton .................................................................. 9
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................ 10
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use .................................................................................. 11
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class .................................................................... 11
U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use ............................................................... 12
U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ....................................................... 13
U.S. Rice Supply & Use ..................................................................................... 14
U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ........................................................... 15
U.S. Sugar Supply & Use ................................................................................... 16
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use ........................................................................... 16
U.S. Cotton Supply & Use .................................................................................. 17
World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................ 18
World Coarse Grains Supply & Use.................................................................... 20
World Corn Supply & Use .................................................................................. 22
World Rice Supply & Use ................................................................................... 24
World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................ 26
World Soybean Supply & Use ............................................................................ 28
World Soybean Meal Supply & Use .................................................................... 29
World Soybean Oil Supply & Use ....................................................................... 30
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production .......................................................... 31
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products .......................................................... 31
U.S. Meats Supply and Use ............................................................................... 32
U.S. Egg Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 33
U.S. Milk Supply and Use .................................................................................. 33
U.S. Dairy Prices ............................................................................................... 34
Reliability Tables................................................................................................ 35
Related USDA Reports ...................................................................................... 38
Metric Conversion Factors ................................................................................. 38
Electronic Access and Subscriptions ...................................................................... 40
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 8
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports).
4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes
millet and mixed grains).
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 9
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice.
5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to
world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 10
Foreign 3/ Output
Total
Supply Trade
Total
Use 2/
Ending
Stoc ks
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 11
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2017, "Prospective Plantings."
Harvested acres and yield for other spring wheat and Durum are projected using 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios by state
and 1985-2016 yield trends by state (except for Arizona, California, and Idaho Durum). Winter wheat harvested acres and
yield reported in the May 10, 2017,"Crop Production."
**********************************************************************************
Wheat-by-class projections for 2017/18 will first be published in the July 12, 2017, WASDE.
**********************************************************************************
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 12
CORN
April May
Million Acres
Area Planted 88.0 94.0 NA 90.0 *
Area Harvested 80.8 86.7 NA 82.4 *
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 168.4 174.6 NA 170.7 *
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 1,731 1,737 NA 2,295
Production 13,602 15,148 NA 14,065
Imports 67 55 NA 50
Supply, Total 15,401 16,940 NA 16,410
Feed and Residual 5,123 5,500 NA 5,425
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ 6,643 6,920 NA 7,000
Ethanol & by-products 3/ 5,224 5,450 NA 5,500
Domestic, Total 11,766 12,420 NA 12,425
Exports 1,898 2,225 NA 1,875
Use, Total 13,664 14,645 NA 14,300
Ending Stocks 1,737 2,295 NA 2,110
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ 3.61 3.25 - 3.55 NA 3.00 - 3.80
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for
barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the
Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to
produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-
year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2017, "Prospective Plantings."
For corn, harvested acres projected based on historical abandonment and use for silage. The yield projection is based on a
weather-adjusted trend assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using
the 1988-2016 time period, and includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield
to July precipitation. (For an explanation of the yield trend model see Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected
Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS, Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July 2013,
www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/fds13g01/39297_fds-13g-01.pdf?v=41481.)
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 13
BARLEY
April May
OATS
April May
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and
oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2017,
"Prospective Plantings." Harvested area for sorghum, barley and oats based on historical average harvested-to-planted
ratios. For sorghum the projected yield is the median yield for 1985-2016. For barley and oats, projected yields are based on
the 1990-2016 trends. Yields shown reflect production rounding.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 14
LONG-GRAIN RICE
April May
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not
included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2015/16-2.9; 2016/17-2.9; 2017/18-2.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and
estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and
milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice
produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice
are estimated. 9/ The medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is
not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may
differ. For example, the average difference between the August WASDE SAFP forecast and the final price has averaged $1.65 per cwt from 2008/09-2013/14, with a
high of $3.50 per cwt in 2008/09 and a low of $0.60 per cwt in 2009/10. 10/ Marketing year beginning October 1. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2017,
"Prospective Plantings." Harvested acres are estimated using the average harvested-to-planted ratios by rice class, 2012-2016. Projected yield is based on linear trend
analysis by rice class for the period 1997/98 to 2016/17.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 15
Million Acres
Area Planted 82.7 83.4 NA 89.5 *
Area Harvested 81.7 82.7 NA 88.6 *
Filler
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 48.0 52.1 NA 48.0 *
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 191 197 NA 435
Production 3,926 4,307 NA 4,255
Imports 24 25 NA 25
Supply, Total 4,140 4,528 NA 4,715
Crushings 1,886 1,925 NA 1,950
Exports 1,936 2,050 NA 2,150
Seed 97 104 NA 101
Residual 25 14 NA 34
Use, Total 3,944 4,093 NA 4,235
Ending Stocks 197 435 NA 480
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ 8.95 9.55 NA 8.30 - 10.30
Total
SOYBEAN OIL
April May
Million Pounds
Beginning Stocks 1,855 1,687 NA 2,062
Production 4/ 21,950 22,350 NA 22,620
Imports 288 325 NA 300
Supply, Total 24,093 24,362 NA 24,982
Domestic Disappearance 20,166 20,000 NA 20,450
Biodiesel 3/ 5,670 6,200 NA 6,450
Food, Feed & other Industrial 14,496 13,800 NA 14,000
Exports 2,240 2,300 NA 2,300
Use, Total 22,406 22,300 NA 22,750
Ending stocks 1,687 2,062 NA 2,232
Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 29.86 31.75 NA 30.00 - 34.00
Total
SOYBEAN MEAL
April May
Filler 1 2 3 4
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for
soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers;
oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made
from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 1,925 million bushels
for 2016/17 and 1,950 million bushels for 2017/18.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 16
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Historical data are from FSA "Sweetener Market Data" (SMD). 2/ Production projections
for 2015/16 and 2016/17 are based on Crop Production and processor projections where appropriate. 3/ For 2017/18, WTO
raw sugar TRQ shortfall (99). For 2016/17, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall (99) 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and
polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ For 2015/16, other high-tier (16) and other (0). For 2016/17, other high-tier (15) and other
(0). For 2017/18, other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/For 2014/15, combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use
and SMD miscellaneous uses. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol, feed, and
ethanol.
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/
Beginning Ending
Stocks Production Imports Domestic 2/ Exports Stocks
1/ HFCS consumption by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): Oct-Sep 2015/16 = 1,482, estimated Oct-Sep 2016/17 =
1,484; projected 2017/18 = 1,484; Oct - Feb 2015/16 = 573, Oct - Feb 2016/17 = 596. Footnote source: Comite Nacional
para el Desarollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes deliveries for consumption, Mexico's products export
program (IMMEX), and Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments. IMMEX: 2015/16 (390 est), 2016/17 (390
est), 2017/18 (390 proj). Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments: 2015/16 (-10), 2016/17 (0), 2017/18 (0).
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 17
Pounds
Yield per Harvested Acre 766 867 NA 810 *
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.65 3.80 NA 3.20
Production 12.89 17.17 NA 19.20
Imports 0.03 0.01 NA 0.01
Supply, Total 16.57 20.98 NA 22.41
Domestic Use 3.45 3.30 NA 3.40
Exports, Total 9.15 14.50 NA 14.00
Use, Total 12.60 17.80 NA 17.40
Unaccounted 2/ 0.17 -0.02 NA 0.01
Ending Stocks 3.80 3.20 NA 5.00
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 61.2 69.0 NA 54.00 - 74.00
Total
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. *Planted area as reported in March 31, 2017 Prospective Plantings.
Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region , with the Southwest adjusted to 10 percent to reflect
favorable moisture conditions. Yield per harvested acre based on 5-year average yields by region.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 18
World 3/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 255.35 737.83 178.53 138.54 734.89 178.35 258.29
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 31.55 49.54 3.40 4.63 32.41 27.22 24.86
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 223.80 688.29 175.13 133.91 702.48 151.13 233.43
Major Exporters 4/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 27.54 221.35 7.11 63.60 150.05 83.00 22.95
Argentina Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.52 17.00 0.01 0.10 6.00 11.00 0.53
Australia Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 8.83 25.00 0.15 4.50 8.00 19.00 6.98
Canada Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 7.16 28.35 0.45 3.50 8.80 22.00 5.16
European Union 5/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 11.03 151.00 6.50 55.50 127.25 31.00 10.28
Major Importers 6/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 149.64 204.56 93.27 29.58 275.41 6.33 165.74
Brazil Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.03 5.60 6.90 0.50 11.60 1.00 1.93
China Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 110.79 131.00 3.00 13.00 116.00 0.80 127.99
Sel. Mideast 7/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 12.41 19.49 19.24 4.92 39.99 0.54 10.61
N. Africa 8/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 13.56 17.80 28.35 2.18 45.28 0.69 13.75
Pakistan Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 4.25 26.20 0.03 0.90 25.40 0.60 4.48
Southeast Asia 9/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 4.71 0.00 24.75 7.09 23.34 1.03 5.09
Selected Other
India Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 9.64 97.00 4.00 5.00 100.00 0.50 10.14
FSU-12 Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 21.39 121.01 8.02 28.10 79.49 51.36 19.58
Russia Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 10.63 67.00 0.50 16.50 39.50 29.00 9.63
Kazakhstan Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 3.73 13.00 0.05 2.10 6.90 7.00 2.88
Ukraine Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.08 25.00 0.03 3.90 10.60 14.50 2.01
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports
and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and
reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union. 5/ Trade excludes
intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq,
Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco,
and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 20
World 3/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 259.49 1,311.83 178.05 812.91 1,349.93 185.93 221.38
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 62.28 370.39 3.53 141.77 326.86 52.85 56.48
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 197.21 941.43 174.52 671.13 1,023.07 133.08 164.91
Major Exporters 4/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 24.23 196.95 2.05 91.19 122.63 78.61 21.99
Argentina Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 4.10 47.65 0.01 10.92 16.48 31.11 4.17
Australia Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.41 11.88 0.00 4.34 6.02 7.23 1.05
Brazil Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 9.70 97.60 0.85 54.30 64.25 34.02 9.89
Canada Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 4.99 26.78 0.86 15.71 23.42 4.55 4.66
Major Importers 5/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 45.13 245.42 129.40 285.73 368.55 11.33 40.07
European Union 6/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 13.49 155.00 14.61 120.00 160.82 9.81 12.47
Japan Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.62 0.17 16.72 13.06 17.05 0.00 1.46
Mexico Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 7.00 31.83 16.20 29.22 48.19 0.70 6.14
N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 12.79 28.12 37.38 58.67 66.67 0.10 11.52
Saudi Arabia Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 4.37 0.36 14.51 15.55 16.11 0.00 3.13
Southeast Asia 8/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 3.22 29.66 15.12 36.71 44.51 0.73 2.76
South Korea Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.93 0.20 10.27 8.04 10.51 0.00 1.89
Selected Other
China Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 102.58 223.04 12.00 174.95 255.48 0.03 82.11
FSU-12 Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 6.54 90.19 0.63 42.97 58.50 33.89 4.97
Russia Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.66 41.15 0.11 22.90 32.65 9.16 2.10
Ukraine Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.40 36.79 0.03 10.21 13.76 23.81 1.65
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes
millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports
and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/
Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ The European Union, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East,
South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria,
Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 22
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports
and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and
reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico,
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 23
World 3/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 223.90 1,033.66 144.79 650.86 1,062.30 151.91 195.27
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 58.30 357.27 1.27 137.80 315.61 47.63 53.60
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 165.60 676.40 143.52 513.06 746.69 104.29 141.67
Major Exporters 4/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 14.89 147.50 0.41 65.30 84.00 64.20 14.59
Argentina Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.86 40.00 0.01 7.50 11.30 28.50 3.06
Brazil Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 9.27 95.00 0.30 52.00 61.00 34.00 9.57
South Africa Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.76 12.50 0.10 5.80 11.70 1.70 1.96
Major Importers 5/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 21.61 124.27 84.30 152.80 206.05 3.93 20.19
Egypt Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.11 6.00 10.00 13.40 15.90 0.01 2.20
European Union 6/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 5.99 63.50 14.00 56.10 75.00 2.50 5.99
Japan Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.24 0.00 15.00 11.50 15.10 0.00 1.15
Mexico Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 6.41 25.00 15.50 22.70 40.70 0.70 5.51
Southeast Asia 7/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 3.22 29.61 15.10 36.65 44.45 0.72 2.76
South Korea Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.91 0.08 10.20 8.00 10.30 0.00 1.89
Selected Other
Canada Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.42 15.20 0.80 8.50 14.10 1.50 2.82
China Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 101.31 215.00 3.00 166.00 238.00 0.02 81.29
FSU-12 Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.61 48.35 0.36 20.43 23.21 25.71 2.40
Ukraine Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.24 28.00 0.03 7.00 8.40 20.00 0.86
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and
exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South
Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and
Vietnam.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 24
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic
includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India,
Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade
excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 25
World 3/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 118.56 481.30 39.85 480.09 42.17 119.77
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.53 6.38 0.76 3.97 3.49 1.21
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 117.03 474.92 39.09 476.12 38.67 118.56
Major Exporters 4/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 27.30 160.50 0.55 134.60 30.10 23.65
India Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 18.90 106.00 0.00 97.50 10.00 17.40
Pakistan Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.83 6.90 0.00 2.90 4.10 0.73
Thailand Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 6.25 19.50 0.25 11.50 10.00 4.50
Vietnam Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.32 28.10 0.30 22.70 6.00 1.02
Major Importers 5/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 7.89 64.44 12.45 75.70 1.00 8.08
Brazil Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.32 8.00 0.60 7.90 0.70 0.32
European Union 6/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.20 2.08 1.90 3.75 0.25 1.18
Indonesia Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 3.54 37.00 0.50 37.40 0.02 3.62
Nigeria Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.40 2.77 2.20 4.90 0.00 0.47
Philippines Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.41 11.20 1.80 12.90 0.00 1.51
Sel. Mideast 7/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.70 1.96 3.60 5.60 0.00 0.66
Selected Other
Burma Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.70 12.30 0.01 10.85 1.70 0.46
C. Amer & Carib 8/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.51 1.65 1.85 3.53 0.03 0.45
China Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 69.59 145.00 4.80 143.00 0.70 75.69
Egypt Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.57 4.00 0.05 4.25 0.20 1.17
Japan Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.37 7.60 0.69 8.50 0.08 2.08
Mexico Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.22 0.20 0.80 0.91 0.00 0.30
South Korea Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.74 3.90 0.41 4.65 0.00 1.39
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.
Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences
in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines,
selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/
Central American and Caribbean countries.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 26
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/
Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the
difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt
and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed,
includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 27
World Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 89.52 113.22 37.63 115.75 37.63 -0.15 87.14
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 3.20 19.20 0.01 3.40 14.00 0.01 5.00
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 86.32 94.02 37.62 112.35 23.63 -0.16 82.14
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other
factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the
United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/
Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania,
and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and
Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 28
2017/18 Proj.
World 2/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 90.14 344.68 147.76 301.53 344.21 149.56 88.81
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 11.85 115.80 0.68 53.07 56.75 58.51 13.08
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 78.29 228.87 147.08 248.46 287.47 91.05 75.73
Major Exporters 3/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 55.31 176.40 1.62 91.65 99.92 80.85 52.56
Argentina Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 31.65 57.00 1.20 45.50 50.00 9.00 30.85
Brazil Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 23.20 107.00 0.40 42.00 45.70 63.50 21.40
Paraguay Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.34 9.40 0.01 3.95 4.00 5.50 0.24
Major Importers 4/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 19.71 17.69 124.37 118.62 141.83 0.38 19.56
China Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 17.56 13.80 93.00 91.50 106.80 0.15 17.41
European Union Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.02 2.45 15.00 15.60 17.24 0.20 1.03
Japan Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.24 0.26 3.30 2.35 3.51 0.00 0.29
Mexico Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.12 0.42 4.30 4.72 4.76 0.00 0.09
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports
and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 4/ China, European Union, Japan,
Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand).
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 29
2017/18 Proj.
World 2/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 12.99 236.92 65.42 233.89 69.13 12.31
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.27 42.00 0.27 31.03 11.25 0.27
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 12.72 194.92 65.15 202.87 57.88 12.04
Major Exporters 3/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 8.19 75.02 0.03 26.11 49.53 7.60
Argentina Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 4.24 35.00 0.00 3.06 32.33 3.86
Brazil Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 3.30 32.50 0.02 17.25 15.50 3.07
India Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.65 7.52 0.01 5.80 1.70 0.67
Major Importers 4/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.91 17.50 38.73 55.72 0.53 1.89
European Union Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.32 12.32 19.60 31.69 0.30 0.25
Southeast Asia 5/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.55 3.41 17.25 20.38 0.23 1.59
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ European Union, Southeast Asia, and Japan. 5/
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 30
2017/18 Proj.
World 2/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 3.69 56.20 11.63 55.85 12.01 3.66
United States Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.94 10.26 0.14 9.28 1.04 1.01
Total Foreign Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2.75 45.94 11.49 46.57 10.96 2.65
Major Exporters 3/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.80 19.78 0.31 11.98 8.18 0.74
Argentina Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.36 8.76 0.00 3.01 5.80 0.32
Brazil Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.28 8.06 0.06 6.67 1.48 0.26
European Union Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.16 2.96 0.25 2.31 0.90 0.16
Major Importers 4/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1.12 18.76 6.43 25.04 0.19 1.08
China Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.55 16.40 0.55 16.85 0.10 0.55
India Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.43 1.69 4.10 5.80 0.00 0.42
North Africa 5/ Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 0.15 0.67 1.78 2.39 0.09 0.12
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, and North Africa. 5/
Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 31
Year and Quarter Beef Pork Red Meat Broiler Turkey Total Red Meat Egg Milk
2/ Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Million Pounds Mil doz Bil lbs
2016 II 6,187 5,963 12,207 10,253 1,520 11,911 24,118 2,111 54.3
III 6,472 6,100 12,626 10,338 1,515 11,997 24,623 2,161 52.6
IV 6,625 6,648 13,329 10,065 1,511 11,708 25,037 2,220 52.5
Annual 25,221 24,941 50,388 40,695 5,981 47,225 97,612 8,565 212.4
2017 I 6,300 6,409 12,764 10,232 1,487 11,847 24,611 2,174 53.5
II* 6,495 6,255 12,804 10,400 1,535 12,070 24,874 2,155 55.6
III* 6,820 6,395 13,270 10,500 1,525 12,167 25,437 2,180 53.9
IV* 6,695 6,995 13,748 10,350 1,575 12,065 25,813 2,225 53.9
Annual
Apr Proj. 26,500 26,095 52,818 41,525 6,110 48,185 101,003 8,775 217.3
May Proj. 26,310 26,054 52,586 41,482 6,122 48,149 100,735 8,734 216.9
2018 I* 6,545 6,590 13,187 10,400 1,510 12,045 25,232 2,205 54.8
Annual
Apr Proj. NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May Proj. 26,910 26,910 54,038 42,275 6,255 49,080 103,118 8,890 222.0
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/
Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale,
National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by
farmers for all milk.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 32
Pork 2016 590 24,957 1,092 26,638 5,233 507 20,898 50.1
2017 Proj. Apr 507 26,111 1,045 27,663 5,670 635 21,358 50.8
May 507 26,070 1,039 27,616 5,747 635 21,234 50.5
2018 Proj. Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 635Filler
26,926
Filler
935Filler
28,496
Filler
5,965Filler
785Filler
21,746
Filler
51.3
Filler
Total Red 2016 1,320 50,481 4,324 56,125 7,788 1,304 47,032 107.0
Meat 5/ 2017 Proj. Apr 1,304 52,908 4,017 58,229 8,403 1,370 48,456 109.2
May 1,304 52,679 4,033 58,016 8,560 1,325 48,131 108.4
2018 Proj. Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1,325Filler
54,131
Filler
4,002Filler
59,458
Filler
8,808Filler
1,425
Filler
49,225
Filler
110.1
Filler
Broiler 2016 832 40,260 131 41,223 6,647 778 33,798 89.8
2017 Proj. Apr 778 41,081 140 41,999 6,925 745 34,329 90.4
May 778 41,038 137 41,953 6,976 745 34,232 90.1
2018 Proj. Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 745Filler
41,823
Filler
130Filler
42,698
Filler
7,030Filler
750Filler
34,918
Filler
91.3
Filler
Total 2016 1,041 46,789 184 48,014 7,369 1,065 39,581 107.7
Poultry 6/ 2017 Proj. Apr 1,065 47,740 183 48,988 7,690 1,003 40,295 108.6
May 1,065 47,705 177 48,947 7,738 1,053 40,156 108.3
2018 Proj. Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1,053Filler
48,627
Filler
174Filler
49,854
Filler
7,825Filler
1,058
Filler
40,971
Filler
109.7
Filler
Red Meat & 2016 2,361 97,269 4,508 104,139 15,157 2,369 86,613 214.6
Poultry 2017 Proj. Apr 2,369 100,648 4,200 107,217 16,093 2,373 88,751 217.8
May 2,369 100,384 4,210 106,963 16,298 2,378 88,286 216.7
2018 Proj. Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 2,378 102,758 4,176 109,312 16,633 2,483 90,196 219.8
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/
Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 33
2015 2016 2017 Proj. 2017 Proj. 2018 Proj. 2018 Proj.
Commodity
Apr May Apr May
Eggs Million Dozen
Supply
Beginning Stocks 23.3 31.1 27.1 27.1 NA 27.0
Production 8,053.0 8,565.0 8,775.0 8,734.0 NA 8,890.0
Imports 123.5 122.1 60.0 56.2 NA 40.0
Total Supply 8,199.8 8,718.2 8,862.1 8,817.3 NA 8,957.0
Use
Exports 313.6 279.2 300.0 302.8 NA 320.0
Hatching Use 995.6 1,009.6 1,035.0 1,019.7 NA 1,030.0
Ending Stocks 31.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 NA 27.0
Disappearance
Total 6,859.4 7,402.3 7,500.1 7,467.8 NA 7,580.0
Per Capita (number) 256.3 274.7 275.8 274.6 NA 276.8
Total
2015 2016 2017 Proj. 2017 Proj. 2018 Proj. 2018 Proj.
Commodity
Apr May Apr May
Milk Billion Pounds
Production 208.6 212.4 217.3 216.9 NA 222.0
Farm Use 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NA 1.0
Fat Basis Supply
Beg. Commercial Stocks 10.5 12.4 14.0 12.8 NA 13.2
Marketings 207.6 211.4 216.3 215.9 NA 221.0
Imports 5.7 7.0 6.3 5.9 NA 6.1
Total Cml. Supply 223.8 230.8 236.6 234.6 NA 240.2
Fat Basis Use
Commercial Exports 8.5 8.9 8.2 8.5 NA 8.7
Ending Commercial Stocks 12.4 12.8 14.4 13.2 NA 12.4
CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0
Domestic Commercial Use 203.0 209.1 214.0 213.0 NA 219.2
Skim-solid Basis Supply
Beg. Commercial Stocks 9.4 9.2 14.7 9.5 NA 10.0
Marketings 207.6 211.4 216.3 215.9 NA 221.0
Imports 6.0 6.5 6.4 6.5 NA 6.4
Total Cml. Supply 223.0 227.1 237.4 231.9 NA 237.4
Skim-solid Basis Use
Commercial Exports 37.3 38.9 39.9 40.5 NA 41.1
Ending Commercial Stocks 9.2 9.5 14.7 10.0 NA 9.4
CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0
Domestic Commercial Use 176.6 178.8 182.9 181.4 NA 187.0
Total
2015 2016 2017 Proj. 2017 Proj. 2018 Proj. 2018 Proj.
Commodity
Apr May Apr May
Product Prices 1/ Dollars Per Pound
Cheese 1.6454 1.6050 1.600- 1.600- NA 1.640-
1.650 1.650 1.740
Butter 2.0670 2.0777 2.120- 2.115- NA 2.045-
2.200 2.195 2.175
Nonfat Dry Milk 0.9016 0.8292 0.865- 0.875- NA 0.915-
0.905 0.915 0.985
Dry Whey 0.3804 0.2875 0.490- 0.490- NA 0.475-
Filler
0.520 0.520 0.505
Dollars Per Cwt
Milk Prices 2/
Class III 15.80 14.87 16.10- 16.10- NA 16.40-
16.60 16.60 17.40
Class IV 14.35 13.77 14.30- 14.35- NA 14.40-
14.90 14.95 15.50
All Milk 3/ 17.12 16.24 17.40- 17.35- NA 17.55-
17.90 17.85 18.55
1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average dairy product prices for class price
computations. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk
prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices
received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation.
May 2017
WASDE - 565 - 35
The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and
other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports
issued by USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on
how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive
database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated
monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently.
Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE
report are provided by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the Foreign
Agricultural Service. PECAD is located at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/.
Subscribers are notified through GovDelivery when the monthly World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is available.
WASDE Briefing Slides: The briefing slides which accompany today’s WASDE report will
be available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
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