Control Charts

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+3σ UCL

A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL
Control Charts
An Introduction to Statistical Process Control

55 Special Cause Variation Region UCL = Upper Control Limit

3
50
Common Cause Variation Region

2
45

1
40
Values

99.7%
95%
68%
35
30

-1
25

-2
Common Cause Variation Region
20

-3
15 LCL = Lower Control Limit
Special Cause Variation Region
Course Content

• Prerequisites
• Course Objectives
• What is SPC?
• Control Chart Basics
• Out of Control Conditions
• SPC vs. SQC
• Individuals and Moving Range Chart
• Central Limit Theorem
• X-bar and Range Charts
• Advanced Control Charts
• Attribute Charts
• Final Points
• Reference Section

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Prerequisites

• Learners should be familiar with the


following concepts prior to taking this course
– Variation
– Mean and Standard Deviation
– Histograms
– Normal Distributions
– Cp and Cpk
• Capability Course is available on BPI
website if you need to review these topics

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Course Objectives

• Upon completion of this course, participants


should be able to:
– Understand the basics of creating variable and
attribute control charts
– Understand the concepts of advanced control
charting
– Identify an out of control condition
– Identify which control chart to use with each
process
– Calculate control limits for any control chart

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Statistical Process Control (SPC)

• SPC is the application of statistical


methods to identify and control the
special cause of variation in a process
• SPC is a preventative tool to:
– Assess the consistency of a process
– Monitor a process to determine when it has
changed
– Reduce variation in a process

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Run Chart

• Graph that displays observed data in a time


sequence
50

45

40
Values

35
30
25
20

Time

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Control Charts

• Run chart with calculated control limits


– 3 standard deviations above and below average
• Help distinguish process variation due to
assignable or “common” causes from those
due to unassignable or “special” causes
• Used to detect whether a process is
statistically stable

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History

• Invented by Walter A. Shewhart while


working for Bell Labs in the 1920s
• W. Edwards Deming became the foremost
champion of Shewhart's work
– long career as an industrial consultant in Japan,
spread use of the control charts throughout the
1940s and 1950s

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Special vs. Common Cause

• Special Cause Variation


– Data points outside of control limits
– Trend or shift pattern within limits
– Can be removed from a process
• Common Cause Variation
– Noise within the system, typical, expected
– Data points randomly occurring within the
control limits
– Always exists in a process, but can be reduced

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Control Chart Basics

55 Special Cause Variation Region


UCL
50
Common Cause Variation Region
45

40
Values

35
CL
30
25 3σ
20 Common Cause Variation Region
15 LCL
Special Cause Variation Region
10
Observation #4 Time
Value = 25

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Special vs. Common Cause

Common Cause Special Cause

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Real Life Examples

• Process: Driving to Work


• Average Time: 12 minutes
• Standard Deviation: 2.5 minutes

• Common Causes
– Wind speed, miss one green light, driving speed, number of cars on
road, time when leaving house, rainy weather
• Special Causes
– Stop for school bus crossing, traffic accident, pulled over for
speeding, poor weather conditions, car mechanical problems,
construction detour, stoplights not working properly, train crossing

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Control Limits

• Centerline (CL) = average value of observations


• Upper Control Limit (UCL) ~ 3 standard
deviations ABOVE the centerline
• Lower Control Limit (LCL) ~ 3 standard
deviation BELOW the centerline
• Control limits are set when process is “in
control” or “stable”
– Fixed at baseline value
– Adjusted for improvements
– Never widened
• Control limits are not specification limits
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Stability

• A process is considered “in control” or


“stable” when the data does not show any
out of control conditions on the control
chart
• Stability means predictability

Day 5
Day 4
Day 3
Day 2
Day 1
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Control Limit Zones

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
LCL
-3σ

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Histogram vs. Control Chart

55 Special Cause Variation Region UCL = Upper Control Limit

3
50
Common Cause Variation Region

2
45

1
40
Values

99.7%
95%
68%
35
30

-1
25

-2
Common Cause Variation Region
20

-3
15 LCL = Lower Control Limit
Special Cause Variation Region

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Out of Control (OOC) Conditions

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Out of Control Conditions

• Outside control limits is easiest to identify


• Patterns highlight other out of control
conditions
– Trends (increasing/decreasing points)
– Shifts (data jumps higher or lower than normal)
– Inconsistencies (not random, more or less
variation than history)

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Western Electric Rules for Control

Any point outside control limits


7 consecutive points on same
UCL side of centerline
A 7 consecutive points increasing
B or decreasing
C 2 of 3 points in same zone A or
±3σ ±2σ ±1σ
C beyond
B 4 of 5 points in same zone B or
A beyond
LCL
14 consecutive points alternating
up and down
14 consecutive points in either
zone C

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Nelson Tests for Control

 Any point outside control limits


 9 consecutive points on same
side of centerline
 6 consecutive points
UCL
A increasing or decreasing
B  2 of 3 points in same zone A or
beyond
±2σ
C
±3σ
6S 4S ±1σ
2S  4 of 5 points in same zone B or
C
beyond
B
 14 consecutive points alternating
A up and down
LCL
 15 consecutive points in either
zone C
 8 points in a row outside zone
C, same side of centerline
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False Alarm Rates are the Key

Nelson False Alarm Rate


• Any point outside control limits .0027
• 9 consecutive points on same side of centerline Approx .003
• 6 consecutive points increasing or decreasing Approx .003
• 2 of 3 points in same zone A or beyond .00305
• 4 of 5 points in same zone B or beyond .0043
• 14 consecutive points alternating up and down Approx .004
• 15 consecutive points in either zone C Approx .003
• 8 points in a row outside zone C, either side of Approx .003
centerline

The Nelson tests are designed so that the false alarm rates for all
tests are approximately the same. The Western Electric rules do not
have this property.

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9 Consecutive on Same Side

• If process is stable and normal, 50% of data will


be above centerline, 50% will be below
centerline
• Probability of getting 9 straight on one side,
same as flipping coin and getting 9 straight
heads
(.5)10 = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = .001

(.5)9 = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = .002
(.5)8 = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = .004

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Nelson Test #1

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 1: Any point outside control limits

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Nelson Test #2

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 2: 9 consecutive points on same side of centerline

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Nelson Test #3

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 3: 6 consecutive points increasing or decreasing

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Nelson Test #4

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 4: 2 of 3 points in same zone A or beyond

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Nelson Test #5

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 5: 4 of 5 points in same zone B or beyond

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Nelson Test #6

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 6: 14 consecutive points alternating up and down

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Nelson Test #7

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 7: 15 consecutive points in either zone C

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Nelson Test #8

+3σ UCL
A
+2σ
B
+1σ
C
0 CL
C
-1σ
B
-2σ
A
-3σ LCL

Rule 8: 8 points in a row outside zone C, either side

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Nelson Tests in Minitab TM

Stat > Control Charts > Xbar-R

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SPC vs. SQC

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Inputs and Outputs

INPUTS OUTPUTS
ROUTE
GAS USED
LEAVE TIME

TIRE PRESSURE PROCESS TOTAL TIME


GAS GRADE
SPEED ACCIDENT FREE

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Evolution of control charts

SPC SQC
Statistical Statistical
Process Quality
Control Control

ROUTE
GAS USED
LEAVE TIME

TIRE PRESSURE PROCESS TOTAL TIME


GAS GRADE
SPEED ACCIDENT FREE

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Individuals Chart

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Individuals and Moving Range Chart

• Most common type of control chart


– Each individual value plotted over time
– Difference from previous value to current
value plotted on Moving Range chart
– Moving Range average used to calculate
control limits for individual readings

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Individuals and MR example

VARIATION

AVERAGE

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Individuals and MR UCL and LCL

UCLX  X  E2 R
LCLX  X  E2 R

UCLMR  D4 R
LCL MR  D3 R
UCLMR

E2 , D3 and D4 are constants in table at end of section


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Individuals Chart

UCL
6:55 PM
0.204

CL

9:35 PM
0.169
LCL

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Moving Range Chart

UCL

4:05 PM 10:15 PM
Current: 0.204 Current: 0.176
Prior: 0.172 Prior: 0.202
Moving Moving
Range Range
0.032 0.026

CL

LCL

Moving Range = Current Data Value – Prior Data Value


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Non-Normal Data

• Individuals control charts rely on assumption


that data is normally-distributed
• If data does not pass normality test, what
can be done?
– Transform the data (difficult)
– Use central limit theorem to normalize the data
• X-bar and R chart does this for you

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Central Limit Theorem

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Central Limit Theorem

• No matter what the shape of the original


distribution (non-normal), the sampling
distribution of the mean approaches a
normal distribution
– normal distribution is approached very quickly
as subgroup size increases

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Central Limit Theorem

Subgroup Size = 1
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
90 105 120 135 150 165

Number of Samples = 200


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Central Limit Theorem

Subgroup Size = 2 Subgroup Size = 3


35 30
30 25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5 5
0 0
100 110 120 130 140 150 115 120 125 130 135 140
Number of Samples = 100 Number of Samples = 66

Subgroup Size = 4 Subgroup Size = 5


25 20

20
15
15
10
10
5
5

0 0
123 126 129 132 135 138 129 130 131 132 133 134

Number of Samples = 50 Number of Samples = 40

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Rational Subgroups

• In order to use Central Limit Theorem, must


define the rational subgroups for data set
• Should be grouped in a way to:
– maximize the chance of detecting shifts in
process average (between subgroups)
– minimize the variation (range) between samples
within the subgroup (within subgroups)
• Don’t subgroup different machine setups,
different time of day, material differences,
operators, or any other variables

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Central Limit Theorem Summary

• If you analyze the average of a subgroup,


not the actual data values, it will be normally-
distributed
• X-bar and R Chart applies Central Limit
Theorem
– Any data set can use the X-bar and R chart,
regardless of data distribution (even non-
normal)

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X-bar and R Charts

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Benefits of X-bar and R chart

• Can be used with any distribution of data


• Separates variation into two groups, for
ease of investigation
– Between subgroup (X-bar chart)
– Within subgroup (Range chart)
• Quicker identification of out of control
conditions than Individuals chart

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X-bar and R example

AVERAGE
VARIATION

Between Subgroup Variation Within Subgroup Variation

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X-bar & R UCL and LCL

UCLX  X  A2 R
LCLX  X  A2 R

UCLR  D4 R
UCLRR  D3 R
LCL

A2 , D3 and D4 are constants in table at end of section


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Average (X-bar) Chart

6:55 PM
UCL
45
43
48
45
50
Avg = 46.2
CL

9:35 PM
44
48
43
42
45 LCL
Avg = 44.4

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Range Chart

6:55 PM
45 UCL
43
48
45
50
Range = 7

CL
9:35 PM
44
48
43
42
45
LCL
Range = 6

Range = Max of Data Subgroup – Min of Data Subgroup


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Normalized Charts

• If operating in a low volume situation, it is usually


more practical to use one control chart for
several parts or transactions
– Data must be “normalized” before it is plotted to
account for different spec limits of the data
• Process may have different limits or targets,
want to know how close process is to target
– Forecasting (Actual v. Predicted), product differences
from same process, etc
– Instead of plotting actual value, plot difference from
nominal, target or expected

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Key Points for Normalized Charts

• Data should be from the same process


• Data should have similar variation
• Requires more data points to setup than
traditional charts
• Uses same calculations as traditional charts,
except use normalized values

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Example Normalized Chart

Part B Part C
Part A Target = 22 Target = 10
Target = 6

3:31
Target 3:45
22 Target
Reading 10
3:15 23.2 Reading
Target Diff = 1.2 8.9
6 Diff = -1.1
Reading
4.4
Diff = -1.6

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Adjust Sampling

• As processes improve, reduce sampling


frequency and/or subgroup size
– Reduce as Cpk increases
– More efficient use of resources
– If process goes out of control, increase sampling
frequency until process stabilized
• Concerns with reduced sampling
– Less sensitive to small shifts in process
– Can be harder to setup process for random
sampling, than capturing all measurements

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Steps to Creating Control Charts

• Determine which process characteristic needs to be


controlled
• Determine where in the process the control chart should be
implemented
• Determine type of data needed to control process
• Choose the correct type of control chart
• Collect and calculate subgroup data
• Calculate centerlines and control limits
• Plot the data on the chart
• Interpret the chart for out of control conditions
• Improve process based upon analysis of control chart

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Advanced Control Charts

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Small Shift Example

1σ Process Shift

Process Mean = 11, σ = 1

Process Mean = 10, σ = 1

INDIVIDUALS CHART STILL SHOWS PROCESS IN CONTROL


10 DAYS AFTER SHIFT
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Advanced Control Charts

• Typical control charts don’t use prior


readings, only current data point
– Make small shifts hard to detect (typically less
than 1.5σ)
• Use prior readings in calculation of current
data point to detect small shifts
• Two alternative charts are CUSUM and
EWMA

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CUSUM

• Cumulative Sum
• Data converted to difference from mean, and
added to previous value Difference from
Mean
Mean(μ==10
10)

Date Value Value-mean New Value


-2.56 = -2.01 + -0.55
1-Oct 9.45 -0.55 -0.55
2-Oct 7.99 -2.01 -2.56
3-Oct 9.29 -0.71 -3.27
-1.61 = 1.66 + -3.27
4-Oct 11.66 1.66 -1.61

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CUSUM Chart detects shift earlier!

1σ Process Shift

CUSUM CHART DETECTS SMALL SHIFT


ONLY 6 DAYS AFTER SHIFT (4 DAYS EARLIER)
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How to set control limits for CUSUM

Table for obtaining CUSUM limits similar to Shewhart control charts

k 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5


Mean Shift 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Decision (h) 8.01 4.77 3.34 2.52 1.99 1.61

Example: To detect a mean shift of 1.5 standard


deviations, you would set k = 0.75, and the limits on the
CUSUM chart would be computed using h*σ (3.34σ),
which would be 3.34(1) = ± 3.34

Prior example used shift of 1σ, k=0.5 and h=4.77, so


limits were set at ±4.77
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EWMA

• Exponentially Weighted Moving Average


• Good for detecting small shifts in processes
• Better at detecting large shifts than CUSUM
• Uses prior readings in calculation of current
data point
– the further away, the less influence
• Best if used with data from individuals chart
(subgroup size = 1)

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How to setup EWMA chart

• Determine λ (between 0 and 1)


– λ is the proportion of current value used for calculating
newest value
– Recommend λ = 0.10, 0.20 or 0.40 (use smaller λ
values to detect smaller shifts)
• Calculate new z values using λ = 0.10
zi = λ*xi + (1 – λ) * zi-1 (where i = sample number)
9.7495 = (0.9*9.945)
Sample Date x z
+ (0.1*7.99)
1 1-Oct 9.45 9.945
2 2-Oct 7.99 9.7495
3 3-Oct 9.29 9.7035 9.899 = (0.9*9.7035)
4 4-Oct 11.66 9.899 + (0.1*11.6)
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EWMA Chart detects shift earlier!

1σ Process Shift

λ = 0.10

EWMA CHART DETECTS SMALL SHIFT


2 DAYS EARLIER THAN INDIVIDUALS CHART
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EWMA UCL and LCL

UCLz = u + Lσ
√ λ
2-λ

LCLz = u - Lσ
√ λ
2-λ

EWMA Chart uses L for determining limits, typically set to 2.7

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EWMA Chart detects shift even earlier!

1σ Process Shift

λ = 0.05

EWMA CHART NOW DETECTS SMALL SHIFT


SIMILAR TO CUSUM CHART
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Summary of CUSUM and EWMA

• CUSUM
– Uses current reading difference from mean, and
previous CUSUM value, equally weighted

• EWMA
– Uses weighted current reading and weighted
previous EWMA value
– Weight of each value is determined by user,
based on needs of chart

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Disadvantages to CUSUM and EWMA

• Cannot quickly detect large shifts in process,


like traditional control charts
• Use CUSUM and EWMA for detecting small
shifts, Individuals and X-bar charts for larger
shifts
– Ideally, use both within the process, to detect
both small and large shifts, with limits set to
±3.5σ

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Attribute Control Charts

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Attribute Control Charts

• p chart
• np chart
• c chart
• u chart

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p chart

• Plots the percentage of defectives within a


sample
3 red defective parts out of 20 parts
p = 3 / 20 = 15% defect rate

• Use when sample size varies


– Control limits adjust according to sample size

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p chart UCL and LCL


p (1 - p)
UCLp = p + 3 n


p (1 - p)
LCLp = p 3 n

p Chart has adjusting control limits, based on sample size

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p chart

8:00 PM
Parts Sampled = 214
11:15 AM Number Defective = 12
Parts Sampled = 415 Percent Defective = 5.61%
Number Defective = 18 Limit Width = 4.7%
Percent Defective = 4.34% Defective Average = 7%
Limit Width = 3% LCL = 2.3%
Defective Average = 7%
UCL = 11.7%
LCL = 4%
UCL = 10%

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np chart

• Plots the number of defective parts in a


sample
• Requires the same sample size each time
• Easy to use, since no calculations required

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np chart UCL and LCL

UCLnp = np + 3 √ np (1 - p)

LCLnp = np 3√ np (1 - p)

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np Chart

4:05 PM 9:35 PM
Sample Size = 750 Sample Size = 750
Total Defects = 35 Total Defects = 29

This specific chart uses 750 samples each time


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u chart

• Plots the quantity of defects per part in a


sample
• Each part can have more than one defect
• Use when sample size varies

11 total defects found on 6 documents


u = 11/6 = 1.833 defects per document
whereas p = 4/6 = 67% defect rate
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u chart UCL and LCL


u
UCLu = u + 3
n


u
LCLu = u 3
n

u Chart has adjusting control limits, based on sample size

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u Chart
12:35 PM
Number of Parts Sampled = 74
5:25 PM
Number of Defects Found = 55
Number of Parts Sampled = 120
Defects per part = 0.74
Number of Defects Found = 70
Limit Width = 0.29
Defects per part = 0.58
Defects per unit average = 0.681
Limit Width = 0.23
LCL = 0.393
Defects per unit average = 0.681
UCL = 0.969
LCL = 0.455
UCL = 0.907

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c chart

• Plots the quantity of defects in a sample


• Each part can have more than one defect
• Requires same number of parts within each
sample

11 total defects found on 6 documents


c = 11 defects per sample
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c chart UCL and LCL

UCLc = c + 3
√c

LCLc = c 3
√c

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c Chart
1:50 PM
Sample 1: 7
Sample 2: 9
Sample 3: 0
Sample 4: 8
Sample 5: 11
Total Defects = 35

6:55 PM
Sample 1: 3
Sample 2: 5
Sample 3: 10
Sample 4: 0
Sample 5: 3
Total Defects = 21

This specific chart uses 5 samples each time


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Attribute Selection Chart

Data Type
Attribute Defectives Count of
Charts (Pass/Fail) Defects
Sample Size

Constant
np c
Varies
p u
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Final Points

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Control Chart Implementation Phases

• Phase 1: Control Charts on few process outputs (key


quality characteristics)
• Phase 2: Expansion of charts, including numerous attribute
control charts
• Phase 3: Some control charts on few process inputs (key
process parameters), some converted to X-bar and R
charts
• Phase 4: Attribute control charts replaced with variable
charts, many charts deleted due to non-criticality or
ineffectiveness
• Phase 5: Most charts are X-bar and R charts on key
process parameters, some advanced charts (CUSUM,
EWMA, etc)

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What if you react to common cause?

Adjusting Process
To Target of 200
Next Reading
After Each Reading
would be = 229 if
adjusted +17,
actually only 212 No Adjustment,
Random Variation

Actual Reading=183,
Adjust process +17
to get back to 200

Adjusting process back to center will increase overall variation


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Other Key Points

• Create a control chart and histogram before performing any


data analysis or calculations
• Use at least 20 data points before calculating control limits
• Moving Range charts are optional, and not required with
Individuals charts
• Spec limits may be displayed on Individuals charts, but can
lead to complacency, never on X-bar and R charts
• Apply SPC to the inputs of a process whenever possible
• Use X-bar and Standard Deviation (S) chart instead of X-
bar and R chart when subgroup size > 5
• Special causes are indications of potential problems, they
cannot guarantee that a problem exists
• Document any out of control condition observed on a chart,
to show evidence that it was seen, and some investigation
took place
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Common Pitfalls of SPC Failure

• Lack of commitment from management


– Resistance to change from reactive to preventative
• Lack of training and education in SPC
– Misinterpretation of control charts
– Lack of focus and/or maintenance on control charts
• Inadequate measurement system in place (poor
Gage R&R)

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Reference Section

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Decision Tree for Control Charts

What type of data:


Attribute or Variable?

Attribute Variable
How are defects counted:
How large are the subgroups?
Defectives (Y/N), or Count of Defects?

Defectives Count 1 2 to 5 5 or more

Constant Constant
Sample Size? Sample Size?
Individuals and X-bar and X-bar and
Moving Range Range Std Dev

Yes No Yes No
np chart P chart c chart u chart
(number (proportion (defects per (defects per
defective) defective) sample) unit)

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Shewhart Control Chart Constants

n E2 D4 D3 A2
2 2.66 3.27 0.00 1.88
3 1.77 2.57 0.00 1.02
4 1.46 2.28 0.00 0.73
5 1.29 2.11 0.00 0.58
6 1.18 2.00 0.00 0.48
7 1.11 1.92 0.08 0.42
8 1.05 1.86 0.14 0.37
9 1.01 1.82 0.18 0.34
n is the subgroup size
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Additional Resources

Business Performance Improvement


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