956 765 1 PB
956 765 1 PB
956 765 1 PB
Benjamin E. Diokno*
Department of Budget and Management
1. Introduction
In economics, initial conditions matter. For the last three decades, the
Philippines has not been able to finance its development priorities, particularly
public infrastructure, and it is not surprising why: the level of public debt was
huge; the costs of servicing it was high; and the revenue-to-gdp ratio was low. Of
course, it did not help that a string of fiscal conservatives running its fiscal policy.
* Please address all correspondence to bediokno@gmail.com
The Philippine Review of Economics, Volume LIV No. 2, December 2017 89
In the last few years, the macroeconomic picture has changed. The economy
has grown faster amidst a low-inflation environment. The cost of borrowing, both
at home and abroad, is low. The debt/gdp ratio has gone down and continues
to fall. Notwithstanding the increase in revenue effort with the 1986 tax reform
program under the Aquino administration2,3, the revenue-to-gdp ratio remains
sticky at around 15 percent.
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2016
Revenue/GDP Debt/GDP
1
Department of Budget and Management, Fiscal statistics handbook, 1983-2017
2
The 1986 tax reform program aimed to improve the revenue yield and the simplicity of the tax system,
among other objectives. Indirect taxation was also revamped with the introduction of the value-added tax.
3
See Diokno [2005].
4
Department of Budget and Management, Fiscal statistics handbook, 1983-2017
90 Diokno: The fiscal program in recent Philippine history
Looking at the Philippines’ current state of affairs gives a glimmer of hope. The
country has been growing at a rapid rate in recent years, finally turning the corner
after decades of subpar growth. The Philippine economy grew by an average rate
of 6.2 percent from 2010 to 2015. This was punctuated by a robust 6.9 percent
growth rate in 2016—higher than that of China, Vietnam, and its other peers. The
emerging picture for 2017 only bolsters the Philippine economy’s strong growth
trajectory. Despite coming off an election year, economic expansion for the first
three quarters of the year has averaged 6.7 percent, and it may even go higher
once the fourth quarter figures are available.
5
Department of Budget and Management, Fiscal statistics handbook, 1983-2017
The Philippine Review of Economics, Volume LIV No. 2, December 2017 91
The strong growth performance and much improved fiscal position are among
the reasons the Philippines may be described as the “fastest-growing economy in
the fastest-growing region in the world”.
Nevertheless, the bullish outlook on the Philippine market can only be
sustained if the government is able to finance its development priorities, namely
infrastructure and human capital development.
6
World Economic Forum, The global competitiveness report, 2009-2017
7
Japan International Cooperation Agency and National Economic and Development Authority, Roadmap
for transport infrastructure development for Metro Manila and its surrounding areas, 2014
92 Diokno: The fiscal program in recent Philippine history
8
Department of Budget and Management, Fiscal statistics handbook, 1983-2017
9
Department of Budget and Management, Fiscal statistics handbook, 1983-2017
The Philippine Review of Economics, Volume LIV No. 2, December 2017 93
10
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, 2012
11
This is based on the approved medium-term fiscal program as of the 171st Development Budget
Coordination Committee (dbcc) Meeting on December 22, 2017.
94 Diokno: The fiscal program in recent Philippine history
First, it has increased the planned deficit from 2 percent to 3 percent of gdp.
The deficit will be financed through borrowings following an 80 to 20 mix in
favor of domestic sources.12 This financing mix is intended to minimize exposure
to foreign exchange fluctuations and enable government to better manage the
debt. Furthermore, based on strengthened friendships with Asian neighbors,
particularly China and Japan, access to official development assistance will
greatly reduce the costs of financing major infrastructure projects.
A look at the historical budget deficit financing mix indicates the government’s
gradual shift to domestic borrowing sources as opposed to foreign sources.
Thirty years ago, as much as 45 percent of total gross borrowings were financed
through foreign sources. Such a heavy reliance on foreign borrowings increased
the country’s vulnerability to foreign exchange volatility. The financing mix
was rebalanced to about 74 percent to 26 percent from 2007 to 2016, and the
government is keen to maintain such a strategy. For instance, the emerging figures
on deficit financing for 2017 indicate that 81 percent of total gross borrowings
were accounted for by domestic sources, whereas only 19 percent came from
foreign sources.
The bigger deficit and borrowings may not sound appealing to some, but the
situation is manageable with adherence to fiscal responsibility. The debt-to-gdp
ratio will continue to fall as gdp growth is projected to outpace the rise in debt
accumulation. The debt-to-gdp ratio is expected to shrink from 42 percent in
2017 to 38 percent in 2022.14 With this debt profile, the Philippines will become
the envy of many developed and developing countries in the world facing much
higher debt-to-gdp ratios.
Second, borrowings will be complemented with increased revenue collections
resulting from tax policy and tax administration reforms. The tax reform program
12
This is based on the approved medium-term financing program as of the 171st Development Budget
Coordination Committee Meeting on December 22, 2017.
13
Department of Budget and Management, Fiscal statistics handbook, 1983-2017
14
This is based on the projections of the Bureau of Treasury (btr) as of the 171st Development Budget
Coordination Committee (dbcc) Meeting on December 22, 2017.
The Philippine Review of Economics, Volume LIV No. 2, December 2017 95
of the government not only intends to raise additional revenues but also aims to
institutionalize a fairer, simpler, and more efficient tax regime. It will also put in
place a tax system that is more in sync with the country’s asean-5 peers, making
the Philippine economy more competitive to investors.
The first package, alongside pending legislative measures (more commonly
known as Package 1A and 1B of tax reform), are estimated to contribute an
additional ₱130 billion in 2018 up to ₱220 billion in 2022. In total, it will rake
in about ₱1 trillion over the medium term and bring annual revenues of about 0.7
to 1.0 percent of gdp.15 Conservative targets for revenue effort are pegged at 16
percent of gdp in 2018 rising to 17.3 percent of gdp in 2022.16 This can go higher
if the tax reform program proceeds according to plan, especially in the legislature.
Hence, the two-pronged approach of expanding the deficit ceiling and
enhancing revenue effort will enable the government to finance the country’s
pressing expenditure needs without sacrificing the its fiscal health.
Such a fiscal strategy will make possible the ambitious infrastructure program
of the Duterte administration, dubbed “Build Build Build”. It will enable the
government to spend about ₱8 trillion to ₱9 trillion for public infrastructure in
the medium term, with the infrastructure budget reaching 5.4 percent of gdp in
2017 and rising to as much as 7.3 percent of gdp by 2022. This is a monumental
step towards modernizing the country’s public infrastructure given its historical
underinvestment in the said realm.
At the same time, such a fiscal strategy will provide resources for the
government’s flagship social service programs, including but not limited to
the conditional cash transfer program, subsidies for health insurance through
PhilHealth, universal access to quality tertiary education (by virtue of ra 10931),
among other interventions. The expanded fiscal space will enable the government
to sustain this level of support, with social services accounting for as much as 40
percent of the national budget, to its constituents.
Through these measures, combined with speedy and efficient implementation,
the groundwork shall be laid for the “golden age of infrastructure” in the
Philippines preparing the young men and women of the country to be future
drivers of growth.
3. Concluding remarks
15
Source: Department of Finance data, December 2017
16
This is based on the approved medium-term revenue program as of the 171st Development Budget
Coordination Committee (dbcc) Meeting on December 22, 2017.
96 Diokno: The fiscal program in recent Philippine history
The country now has the right ingredients and leaders to catch up with its
asean-5 peers and to ultimately transform the Philippines into the “Asian tiger”
it is capable of becoming. With the right fiscal policy strategy, the country is
poised to be an upper-middle income economy with poverty incidence down to
14 percent by 2022.
References
Appendix
TABLE 1. Selected macroeconomic statistics (1983-2017)
Items 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
actual actual actual actual actual actual actual actual actual
Economic services (%) 34.9 33.6 28.2 25.9 21.9 19.0 23.4 24.2 24.9
Social services (%) 23.2 19.9 21.7 20.8 22.3 22.6 22.4 22.0 22.3
Defense (%) 10.7 8.4 9.7 7.0 6.9 8.7 7.5 6.5 6.3
General public services (%) 17.1 15.0 16.9 12.3 12.7 13.7 13.1 13.8 14.1
Debt burden (%) 14.1 23.2 23.5 34.0 36.2 36.0 33.6 33.5 32.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Items 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
actual actual actual actual actual actual actual actual actual
Economic services (%) 22.9 23.4 25.8 27.5 25.3 26.8 24.1 24.0 24.5
Social services (%) 22.9 23.4 23.4 26.9 29.5 32.3 32.6 33.2 31.2
Defense (%) 6.6 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.4 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.3
General public services (%) 16.3 17.4 18.1 17.6 19.0 18.8 18.8 18.2 18.0
Debt burden (%) 31.2 28.6 25.7 20.6 18.7 16.1 18.6 18.9 21.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Items 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
actual actual actual actual actual actual actual actual actual
Economic services (%) 22.1 20.4 20.6 19.4 18.3 21.2 25.4 27.3 28.1
Social services (%) 30.4 31.1 28.8 28.9 27.0 27.0 27.7 28.0 28.7
Defense (%) 5.1 5.2 5.4 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.4 4.7 4.4
General public services (%) 17.1 17.9 17.1 16.1 17.8 17.1 17.5 18.1 19.0
Debt burden (%) 25.3 25.4 28.1 30.7 31.8 29.7 24.0 21.8 19.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
98 Diokno: The fiscal program in recent Philippine history