Yudhadkk 2022
Yudhadkk 2022
Yudhadkk 2022
Article
Unearthing the Dynamics of Indonesia’s Geothermal
Energy Development
Satya Widya Yudha 1 , Benny Tjahjono 2, * and Philip Longhurst 1
1 School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK;
s.widya-yudha@cranfield.ac.uk (S.W.Y.); p.j.longhurst@cranfield.ac.uk (P.L.)
2 Centre for Business in Society, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
* Correspondence: benny.tjahjono@coventry.ac.uk
Abstract: Indonesia has one of the world’s biggest geothermal energy reserves, accounting for
28.61 Gigawatts of electric energy (GWe). However, as of 2022, the installed geothermal capacity
in Indonesia was only around 2.175 GWe, just 7.6% of its estimated potential. Geothermal energy
development is required for Indonesia to empower sustainable energy systems and achieve its target
of reaching 7.2 GW of geothermal energy by 2025. The geothermal energy sector is viewed as a
complex dynamic system, with complicated challenges, including technical, financial, infrastructure,
and many other issues. The purpose of this paper is to understand the complex nature of geothermal
systems in Indonesia. To that end, this paper examines the geothermal development from a systematic
and holistic standpoint, employing the interview technique to enable the conceptualization of the
geothermal systems using the system dynamics (SD) approach. The SD model exhibits several
underlying and important factors influencing the development of geothermal energy in Indonesia,
such as capital investment, the collection of upstream data to reduce risk, infrastructure construction,
pricing, incentives, permit procedures, environmental concerns, and public acceptance.
2. Related Work
Geothermal development is complex, as it is surrounded by a plethora of external
factors that frequently create uncertainty and hinder its development. The project scale,
interrelationship, regulation, context, permits, and project stages are some of the factors
that contribute to the complex nature of geothermal development [22]. Due to the dynamic
interactions of various elements within the energy system, including the geothermal energy
sector, many researchers have attempted to identify and understand the complex elements
Energies 2022, 15, 5009 3 of 18
of the energy sector. One of the many popular methods used by researchers to untangle
this complexity is by using the SD modeling technique.
Leaver and Unsworth [23], Lowry et al. [24], and Axelsson [25] have used SD to map
the technical aspects of the geothermal system, using the datasets from a few specific
geothermal fields. However, despite the detailed technical aspects offered, their work
lacked several important non-technical aspects, deeming them as insufficient to fully
elucidate the complexity of geothermal systems. Subsequently, Alfrink [26], Jiang et al. [27],
and Splitter et al. [28] used SD to elaborate other elements of geothermal systems beyond
the technical aspects, including the financial and economic aspects. Aslani et al. [29],
Saavedra et al. [30], and Splitter et al. [31] also used SD to improve the deficiencies of
the previous work by complementing the aspects of the geothermal systems to include
a more holistic view of renewable energy use in different countries. While the aspects of
geothermal systems have been incorporated in the abovementioned models, unfortunately,
the models become too broad, leaving out too many details and aspects that determine the
geothermal system’s complexity.
In the context of Indonesia, SD has been used in the geothermal energy sector by
Aditya [32], who developed a framework that integrates the technical and economic aspects
of the geothermal system using the Mataloko Geothermal Power Plant in Kupang, East
Nusa Tenggara. Akin to this work is a study by Setiawan et al. [33] that complements
Aditya’s work with a more holistic approach by covering more than just the economic and
technical aspects.
Previous work, therefore, clearly demonstrates the paucity of research on renewable
energy system dynamics, including geothermal energy. First of all, the extant work in
geothermal dynamics is currently focused predominantly on the technical and economic
aspects. In particular, the elaboration of the dynamic relationship of the key elements
beyond the technical and economical viewpoints is lacking, and even if it exists, it is poorly
discussed. Secondly, although there are a number of researchers who have also attempted
to develop a more holistic coverage of more aspects of the geothermal system dynamics,
there are gaps between the methodological pathway and the geothermal SD model itself.
For instance, much of the previous work was based on the data originated from a single
case of geothermal energy in a single area as a base model, which may not be representative
of the overall picture, hence decreasing the robustness of the SD model being developed.
Therefore, in this research, the methodological framework of the research will be
provided to bridge the gaps in discussing how the geothermal SD can be developed. This
research will also use vast sources of data from geothermal plants in Indonesia, which
improves the robustness, reliability, and accuracy of the SD models of the Indonesian
geothermal system.
3. Research Design
This research focuses on developing a conceptual framework of the Indonesia’s
geothermal energy system. The overall research design comprises two main stages. In
Stage 1, the semi-structured, in-depth interview method is carried out, involving a large
number of key stakeholders in geothermal energy in Indonesia, to identify the key elements
that play critical roles in the geothermal energy sector. In Stage 2, using SD modeling, these
key elements and their structural interrelationships are mapped and modeled to provide a
holistic understanding of geothermal development complexity in Indonesia, incorporating
technical, economic, political, and social aspects.
method was deemed suitable, as it allowed for data collection flexibility and for the ability
to obtain direct feedback to explain the complex phenomena, while requiring in-depth
analysis [34]. The in-depth interview, while based on the semi-structured interviews [35,36],
provided data generated in a descriptive and explanatory form [37,38].
Table 1. Cont.
Questions
Risk is one of the most important keys in decision making for developing a project. What are your views on the risks associated
with geothermal projects?
The geothermal energy development would depend on locations. How has the location of geothermal prospects affected the
geothermal development?
The economic value of geothermal projects, particularly in revenue generation, seems to depend on how the geothermal is valued
in the pricing mechanism. How is the geothermal pricing mechanism in Indonesia?
Infrastructure is one of the most important aspects of the geothermal energy development. What are your views on the state of
geothermal infrastructure in Indonesia?
What are the other aspects of geothermal energy that need to be considered to enhance its development?
4. Findings
Indonesia’s geothermal resources, accounting for over 40% of the global potential
(or 28,617 MW) can be used in a power plant where geothermal fluid produced through
production wells will go through a separation and cleaning process before entering the
turbine and being converted into electric power. Despite its huge potential, there are still
many obstacles that hinder the optimal utilization of geothermal energy, from both the
technical and non-technical aspects. In this section, these obstacles will be analyzed based
on the interviews with the geothermal stakeholders.
“ . . . it is very expensive to start a geothermal project. I will give you an example, the
cost estimate to carry out the exploration stage including drilling with only a total of
3 wells, which was around USD 34.1 million, that included the Geological, Geophysical,
and Geochemical surveys, but it is necessary for the making sure the geothermal area that
we are assessing is promising or not.”—Interviewee 1A
While Interviewees 2 through 7 did not provide the cost estimate of this exploration,
all of the interviewees who represent the geothermal companies agreed that this exploration
phase required hefty costs.
A greater risk of a geothermal project will potentially increase the capital cost due to
project loss, as stated by Interviewee 4:
“ . . . the significant upfront cost of these exploration activities does not guarantee a
significant return because if it turns out that after drilling there is no reservoir as interpreted
in the initial 3G survey, then the large costs paid by the geothermal developer, which is
certainly very detrimental to the company, would fall through.”—Interviewee 4
Interviewees 1 through 7, and interviewee 10, stated that the high risks of geothermal
exploration, as well as the expensive initial costs that must be faced by geothermal devel-
opers to carry out the exploration stage, have made the development of geothermal energy
becomes sluggish. Therefore, according to Interviewee 5A, government intervention in the
upstream data strategy is needed:
“ . . . upstream data strategy, including data integration from all state-owned companies,
or government-funded drilling would be one of the scenarios that not only can make sure
the potential of a geothermal area and increase the certainty during the exploration, but
also increase the geothermal attractiveness.”—Interviewee 5A
Interviewees 1 through 7 concurred that a clear risk of geothermal exploration en-
ables the bankability of a geothermal project and could ease the geothermal investment.
Interviewee 3A, for instance, argued that:
“ . . . a crystal-clear image of geothermal exploration risk is necessary for the bank to
determine whether our project is bankable or not. Lower risk for them would make the
process easier and more attractive.”—Interviewee 3A
“ . . . if we want to increase the pace, make the permit process easier, because otherwise,
many geothermal working areas in Indonesia, especially those currently undergoing
the exploration stage, the geothermal utilization target of 7.2 GW in 2025 set by the
government would be very difficult to achieve.”—Interviewee 3A.
higher the cost of geothermal development projects, which in turn can make the investment
in this sector less attractive. Quoting from Interviewee 5A:
“ . . . when we first started the geothermal project, we needed to build the infrastructure
such as road access, for example, and that cost a lot and it was one of the main factors to
consider that could make the project less attractive.”—Interviewee 5A
As a part of the infrastructure, the facility is also an important factor. Effective and
efficient technology is needed to reduce costs, especially during exploration. Intervie-
wee 9 stated that Indonesia is capable of producing equipment for geothermal projects in
the country; currently, an equipment test project is being carried out by National Research
and Innovation Agency, at the Kamojang geothermal site.
development companies, and local communities are still in the stage of recognizing each
other, and trust has not yet been built between each party. As stated by Interviewee 6A:
“ . . . this is not news to geothermal developers, especially with the many reports in the
mass media about the public’s resistance to geothermal projects in Indonesia. However,
in practice in the field often, companies have not carried out education or counselling
sustainably and comprehensively.”—Interviewee 6A
5. Discussion
This section discusses the development of the SD model that describes the relation-
ships between elements that play a crucial role in geothermal system development in
Indonesia. The causal loop diagram (CLD) is employed to link up the critical elements
of the geothermal system that make up the conceptual framework, as shown in Figure 1.
The loops and their elements were obtained from the interviews with the geothermal
stakeholders (see Table A1 in Appendix A).
Table 3 lists the structure of the feedback loops within the conceptual framework.
The loops detail multiple factors that can potentially enable and inhibit the growth of
geothermal energy in Indonesia. Understanding these loops subsequently allows further
investigation into the factors that can stabilize (or else strengthen) the regime so as to better
align it with the goals of the geothermal systems being developed.
Energies 2022, 15, 5009 12 of 18
attractiveness could invite more geothermal investments and thus, more geothermal project
developments. Eventually, that could potentially generate both tax and non-tax income for
the government.
The situation where the PLN is the sole buyer or off-taker of electrical energy in
Indonesia must be balanced with government intervention to implement regulations that
can produce tariff schemes that are attractive to investors, but still profitable for the PLN.
Further and more detailed studies on the most suitable method to reduce exploration and
production costs should be carried out by the government, practitioners, and academics
so that the baseline cost of a geothermal energy development project in Indonesia can
be determined.
6. Conclusions
This paper illustrates the complex nature of geothermal development in Indonesia
through model conceptualization by employing the SD modeling technique. The research
employed semi-structured qualitative interviews of several important stakeholders of the
geothermal energy sector in Indonesia. The information obtained was used as a basis for
building the SD model.
The interviews highlight several aspects in the geothermal energy sector in Indonesia,
including the high risk of geothermal exploration, restrictions for geothermal locations
within national parks or protected forests, pricing mechanisms, underdeveloped infrastruc-
ture, power wheeling, and public resistance towards geothermal projects.
Energies 2022, 15, 5009 15 of 18
The SD diagram visualized the entire process, the elements, and the stakeholders
incorporated within the geothermal system. The relationship between these elements is
illustrated in the causal loop diagram forming four balancing loops, namely the geothermal
investment loop, infrastructure loop, upstream data loop, and environmental loop, as well
as four reinforcing loops, which include the incentive loop, pricing loop, permit loop, and
acceptance loop. These loops highlighted the behavior and the dynamics of the systems
that influence the output of the system.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, S.W.Y. and B.T.; methodology, S.W.Y., B.T. and P.L.; valida-
tion, S.W.Y., B.T. and P.L.; formal analysis, S.W.Y., B.T. and P.L.; investigation, S.W.Y.; writing, S.W.Y.
and B.T.; writing—review and editing, B.T. and P.L.; supervision, B.T. and P.L.; project administration,
S.W.Y. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Energies 2022, 15, 5009 16 of 18
Institutional Review Board Statement: The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration
of Helsinki, and approved by the Institutional Review Board of the National Energy Council of the
Republic of Indonesia (1087.Und/EK.03/SJD/2021, approved on 3 December 2021).
Informed Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Appendix A
Table A1. Summary of quotes from the interviewees and their associated loops
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