Notes on PFR

Stages of Foreign Policy Decision-Making

 Foreign policy decision making can be more accurately viewed as a complex and
sensitive process. Personal relations among state leaders cannot be discounted, but
nevertheless, foreign policies must manifestly be well-thought and evidence
informed. The best way to ensure this as if they come out of either deliberative
policy making process.
 This process includes three stages, foreign policy initiation, foreign policy
formulation, and foreign policy implementation.

1. The initiation stage is when political leaders and foreign policy bodies, which we call
as the policy makers, develop foreign policy ideas by identifying specific problems or
challenges, even areas that need improvement.
- They are premised on national interest, perceptions, preferences, choices,
options, and capabilities. In this stage, there is also a need for gathering of
information or intelligence, or at times what happens is that the intelligence or
information would come first and that would trigger foreign policy ideas, the
identification and articulation of flows, or the role conception stage are also
done here.
- This also involves goal setting that is, which is strategic or practical steps can be
taken to realize national interest in international politics. A state must determine
what policy options are available to meet the goal or goals in the political
environment.

2. Second is policy formulation. In a democratic system formulation requires sending

the proposals for debate, readings and adoption, prior to approval and ratification.
In this stage, brainstorming of possible strategies is done, also determined are policy
options. In making this, the international and domestic environment are put into
consideration.
- Or this is also called as the refinements step, as it necessarily entails the conduct
of cost-benefit analysis and evaluation of the identified strategies and policy
options.

3. The last step is policy implementation. At this stage, all responsible bodies ensure
that the policy is fully implemented. Also, the executive department or the foreign
affairs department engages the foreign service to fulfill their respective roles in the
execution of the policy. Therefore, it is also known as the role assumptions stage.

Determinants of Foreign Policy

 In a writer’s insight, foreign policy is the hinge of domestic and international
politics. There is also consensus among scholars that foreign policy serves as an
intersection point of domestic and international politics.
 Thus, from here, we can say that the foreign policy of every state is influenced by
mainly two determinants; international or external and domestic or internal.

1. For the internal or domestic determinants, we have the first one, which is territory,
the size of a state's territory greatly influences its foreign policy. It is generally
believed that leaders and people of states with small territory do not expect their
country to carry heavy weight in international affairs. For example, Gambia, Benin,
Brunei, and Kyrgyzstan.
- On the other hand, leaders of large countries are ready and willing to assume
special ingredient responsibilities in global affairs. For instance, we have the
United States of America, Russia, and China, they are active players in world
politics due to their gigantic size.
- Size has also been a factor in the foreign policies of India, Brazil, and France.
Large states with few exceptions, always formulate and use an active foreign
policy and throw with this play, or they play an active role in international
relations.
- However, that is not to say that all small states don't take active roles in
international affairs. Some small states which have reached resources in terms of
economics and power are very active in leaving the impact of real politics.
- Japan is relatively a small size state and yet its role in international relations has
been very active and influential. The same is true for that of the rich countries of
the Middle East. They are small in size, but they're playing a significant role in
international politics, especially in international political economy. Another
example is Israel, which, despite being a small size state, it has been influencing
the course of politics among nations.
- Before 1945, Britain with a small size could play the role of the world power.
Great size versus the problem of defense, security and maintenance of
communications.
- In the absence of natural boundaries, the great size of a nation, very often
creates the problem of relations with neighboring states. Russia is a huge state in
terms of territory, but its role in contemporary international relations continues
to be weak.
- In the meantime, large countries like Canada and Australia have not been playing
active foreign policy. Therefore, it can be argued that size is not an absolute
factor, but rather it gets influenced by other factors like resources at the state’s
disposal.

2. Another determinant is geography. Geography is a stable, tangible, permanent, and

natural element. Napoleon Bonaparte rightly remarked that any country's foreign
 policy is determined by its geography. There are two aspects of the influence of
geography on foreign policy, the geographical environment of the state and the
political importance of its geographical location.
- Suitable geographical factors can help and encourage nation to adopt and pursue
higher goals. The role played by the English Channel in the development of
Britain is a major naval power and consequently as an Imperial power is well
known.
- The influence of the Atlantic Ocean on the U.S. foreign policy has been always
there. Indian foreign policy, now definitely bears the influence of the
geographical location of India as the largest liberal state of the Indian Ocean.
- The natural resources and the food production capacity of a nation and is directly
linked with its geography. These factors are also important factors in the
formulation and implementation of foreign policy. Adequate existence of vital
natural resources like minerals, food and energy resources have been helping
factors of the U.S. and Russian foreign policies.
- Food shortage was a source of limitation on Indian foreign policy in the 1950s
and 1960s. Large quantities of oil have made it possible for the west Asian and
Gulf nations to adopt oil diplomacy as a means of their foreign policies. The
location of Turkey as a transit point between Europe and Asia, undoubtedly has
profound impact on her foreign policies. The same is true for Gambia, due to its
geographical location on the Atlantic coast line.
- Moreover, in the 19th century, the United States has adopted isolationist policy
mainly on account of its geographical location.
- Although the significance of geography cannot be overemphasized, its
importance as considerably declined due to the revolutionary developments in
technology, science, modern warfare, and the ability of nations to overcome
geographical hindrances. Nevertheless, the geographical location of a country
has deep impact on the determination of its foreign policy.

3. Third is demography. As a determinant of foreign policy, population is relevant both

in quantitative and qualitative terms. For a long time, population has been regarded
as an important criterion for measuring state power. It is believed that the greater,
the number of populations, the greater its power will be.
- In the past war, the massive infantry of the People's Republic of China helped
resist the U.S. forces. Moreover, the workforce means the standard of living,
values, way of life and even a nations expectation.
- Also, population is important in the determination of policies of solidarity, among
all parts of the citizenry, the development political organizations, the quality of
the public, the promotion of political consciousness, political participation, the
pressure of public opinion, the type of government among others.
- The significance of China and India rests partly on the large size of their
population. Besides the quantity, the quality of the population as revealed in its
 educational level, skilled labor, technical know-how, health and strong national
character as a determinant of foreign policy.
- The population's quality also influences the quality of the political system, public
administration, leadership, and even execution of foreign policy.

4. Next is culture and history. The approach of a nation into the external affairs is
considered by its traditional values and beliefs that have appeared over the years.
Historical experiences, like culture and tradition of a state provide ample influence
on its foreign policy.
- Usually states with integrated culture and common history, find it more
convenient to formulate effective foreign policy. Strong cultural unity of the
people is always a source of strength for them.
- It materially influences their ability to secure the objectives of national interest
during the course of international bargaining. Historical experiences and cultural
links further help them to analyze and assess the nature and scope of relations
with other nations.
- Indeed, the weakness of the foreign policies of most of the Asian and African
states has been largely due to the presence of internal dissensions and conflicts
among their people.
- Be their experiences with the policies of imperialism and colonialism have been a
determining factor in the anti-imperialist and anti-colonial contents of the
foreign policies of most of the new sovereign states.
- In addition, history is an important factor in determining the relations among
neighboring nations. For example, foreign policy interactions between India and
Pakistan are mostly the legacies of past history.
- However, cultural values and links are always subject to perpetual changes and
adjustments, historical experiences too, are forgotten in the face of national
interest.
- For instance, the existence of conflict among the European nations, despite their
cultural links and the development and continuation of strong U.S. – Japanese
friendship and relations, bear ample proof that cultural and historical factors
have to have combination with other factors before influencing the course of
foreign policy.

5. Next economic resources. The level of economic development of a country also

influences its foreign policy.
- Many advanced industrialists’ countries play a dominant role in world politics
and formulate their foreign policies to maintain such superiority in the system.
Such countries like United States, Russia, Germany, and France have large
resources at their disposal to build military capabilities on one hand and disperse
monetary benefits on other states in the form of aides and loan with the sole aim
of seeking allies with the states.
 - On the other hand, small states like the Gambia pursue a limited and calculated
foreign policy due to their insufficient economic power. Therefore, it can be seen
that developing and underdeveloped countries remain dependent on this
advanced industrialist countries to a larger extent to get development loans,
import technologies for the provision of healthcare, access to higher education
and even food grains to meet their needs. Thus, they have to adjust their foreign
policies to these economic terms.
- Economic interdependence leads to international economic activity expressed in
terms of tariffs, import quotas, trade agreements, and other financial
arrangements. The level of economic development also the means the scope of
relations that a nation wishes to establish with other nations.
- The foreign policy of Japan, for example, and the contemporary times is directly
and fundamentally related to its economic development.
- Economic power constitutes a fundamental dimension of national power in
contemporary times and it can be used more effectively for security foreign
policy goals.
- One of the main reasons why the U.S. foreign policy has been very successful in
securing its national objectives, particularly in relation to the poor and
economically low states is the high degree of its economic development.
- The developed countries of our times are highly industrialized and economically
develop states. This can use foreign aid as a tool for securing their foreign policy
goals.

6. Another is ideology. Each state system is governed by specific political ideologies.

The values, policies, programs, objectives, and goals of a state are governed by that
ideology.
- It does not simply determine the internal policies and values of a state, but also
governs foreign policy. Therefore, it can be considered, or it can be considered as
one of the most important determinants of foreign policies.
- For example, the socialist states are convinced of the principles of international
peace, friendship, mutual cooperation, refusal interfere in the internal affairs of
other states, etc.
- On the other hand, capitalism maintain its existence through exploitation and
oppression of home and abroad. It is for this reason that capitalist countries
follow aggressive policies in economic, political and cultural fields.
- Some scholars say, that democratic nations believe in peace while dictatorial
regimes believe in war, but reality falsifies this hypothesis. America and Britain
by no means are less war prone than Russia and China.
- At times a leader uses his ideology merely to justify his policy or behavior in
familiar terms that are acceptable to his countryman. But on other occasions, a
nation goes to war, not for national security, but only to compel others to
subscribe to its ideology.
 - And objective view on this matter is that ideology alone is not a policy goal. This
is proved by the fact that nations professing opposite ideologies, live in peace
with each other for several years.
- However, there is of course, another side of the picture. The foreign policy of the
Soviet Union cannot be fully explained if one ignores the ideology of
Communism. World revolution remained one of the chief objectives of the
USSR’s foreign policy for many years. Russian expansion after 1945, aimed at
establishing communism as much as her political domination.
- However, the role of ideology as a determinant of foreign policy should not be
overemphasized. Often ideologies are used simply to obscure the real facts of a
situation or the real motives of ambitious rulers. Sometimes governments stand
for certain ideas only to command popular support at home and abroad.
- The foreign policy of India and many other countries, despite their ideological
overtones cannot be explained, except in terms of national interests.
- In short, it can be said that ideologies do not fully determine foreign policy
objectives, although the influence to some extent their directions.
- Lastly, ideological camps or blocks, which have emerged after the second world
war have almost disappeared now. No country interested in ideological rigidity
piece. All of these recent developments have further lowered the role of
ideology in the formulation of foreign policy.

7. Another determinant is political leadership. Leadership in general, the personality of

a leader in particular, please have profound role in the foreign policy formulation.
The role of personality in foreign policy encompasses cognitive processes, and the
showrooms that decision making is the result of individual human agency.
- That is ultimately, it is individuals who make decisions and not states. Thus,
personality can be important in adding to our understanding of foreign policy
behavior. However, some scholars are cue that its relevance is dependent upon
the constraints of the international system, as well as the domestic political
structure.
- According to one scholar, a leader's belief about the nature of the international
arena and the goals that ought to be pursued there in, his or her peculiar
intellectual strengths and weaknesses for analyzing information and making
decisions, his or her background, and the extent of its relevance to the
requirements of their role, his or her emotional needs and most of the other
personality traits are but a few of the factors that can influence the planning and
execution of foreign policy.
- So, the government structure and societal realities are believed to constrain the
character of a leader, especially during crisis time where the leader shows the
path to the government and society.
- Leaders have been categorized into two, we have hawks and doves. Hawks or
those who advocate and aggressive foreign policy based on strong military
 power. On the other hand, doves are those who are conciliatory and would try to
resolve international conflicts without the threat of force.
- According to one thinker, an aggressive leader can be characterized by certain
attributes, such as tendency to manipulate others, high need for power,
paranoia, high level of nationalism, and a vigorous willingness to initiate on
behalf of his or her state.
- Whereas, conciliatory leaders are the opposite of the above. He or she possesses
attributes such as desire for affiliation and friendly relations with other states.
- From these leaders like Hitler, Mussolini, George W. Bush, Donald Trump and
Kim Jong Un can be categorized as Hawks. While, leaders such as Abraham
Lincoln, Barack Obama and Emmanuel Macron of France can be classified as
Doves.
- On the basis of practical experience, it can be said that foreign policy cannot be
separated from the nature of government leadership under any circumstance.
Since the foreign policy of a nation is made and implemented by leaders,
statesmen and diplomats, naturally it bears an imprint of their values, talents,
experiences, and personalities.
- The ideas, orientations, liking, disliking, attitude, knowledge skill, and even the
worldview of this national decision-makers are influential inputs in the foreign
policy.
- The differences among these leaders are also influential in terms of the country's
foreign policies. The change in leadership often produces a change in the foreign
policy of a nation. However, this does not mean that this factor is an
independent determinant of foreign policy. Leaders are always guided by the
dictates and demands of national interest. Each leader is committed to securing
the national interest of the state.

8. Let's proceed to the quality of diplomacy. Quality of diplomacy is one of the most
important determinants of foreign policy, the success or failure of a state in
international politics depends on its diplomatic tactics and excellence.
- Each of the goals and objectives of the state is determined by the diplomatic
ingenuity of the government, all the goals of foreign policy are determined by the
people involved in diplomatic activity.
- It is through diplomatic activity that the main linkages and differences with other
states are resolved. Diplomats also determine the mechanism for combining
different interests.

9. Another determinant of foreign is the political system. The political organization and
institutions in our country also greatly influence its foreign policy.
- Generally, under authoritarian or totalitarian forms of government, easier and
faster foreign policy decisions are possible, because the decision-making power
rests with an individual or a group of individuals.
 - They are the sole decision maker, in the stair decisions are made without any
constraints or consultations their foreign policy can become conflictual. It may
also lead to a country's isolation in international politics, just like what happened
with the regimes in North Korea and Myanmar.
- On the other hand, in a state with a democratic system, foreign policy
implementation tends to be difficult and slow, as compared to that the one
authoritarian structure. Citizens in this system and freely express and voice their
opinions in the domestic, as well as foreign policies of their country, making an
impact on the policies of their government. Democratic leaders tend to respond
to these public demands and formulate foreign policy within it.
- In the same way, different political structures in a democratic system itself have
its impact on foreign policy. For instance, under a parliamentary system of
government, based on cooperation between the legislature and the executive
body, the cordial relation between these two wings has an impact on a country's
foreign policy.
- On the other hand, under the presidential system of government, based on the
principles of principle of separation of powers, the relation between the two
wings are non-cordial and it's likely to be strained, which affects the ambiguity or
the continuum of foreign policy.
- Similarly, different foreign policies are likely to emerge under bi-party and multi-
party systems. Under the bi-party system, the government is likely to have a
clear-cut majority and conduct itself in a more decisive manner regarding the
conduct of foreign relations.
- In contrast, under the multi-party system, conflicting views and interests may
occur. This may lead either to avoidance or the postponement of the discretion.
- Moreover, the organizational structure of the government or organizational
agencies, which handled the foreign policy making and implementation is
another important element of foreign policy. The shape of the foreign policy is
also determined by the fact as to whether the government agencies handling it
by democratically constituted, or not.

10. Next, the military capability or the military strength, of a country. Also, determines
the foreign policy strategy of states. The capability of a state to defend its orders
against armed aggression plays a profound role in both internal and external policies
that states make.
- Military capable states, exercise greater independence from external forces in
the formulation of their foreign policy. Also, the increase in the military
capabilities of a state might result in a change in its foreign policy from peaceful
to an aggressive foreign policy or from an aggressive foreign policy to a peaceful
one.
- For instance, North Korea. North Korea with its possession of new weapons is
directing its foreign policy towards an aggressive one. This is to say that states
with high military capabilities, such as the U.S., China, and Russia, then to be
 active and vigorous in pursuing their foreign policy objectives in the international
system.
- On the other hand, states with weak or low military capabilities, then to be more
silent in the pursuit of their policy goals. And most often, they depend on an ally
with greater powers and on international organizations for their protection.
- So, this includes the military preparedness of a state, its technological
advancement and means of communication. States with adequate military
capacity will have greater initiative in bargaining power in terms of foreign policy
matters.
- And if you would notice, only those states that feel military strong have adopted
aggressive postures,

11. Like the external situation and factors sudden changes, disturbance says, or
disorders that have grew within the internal environment of a nation also influence
the nature and course of foreign policy. So, we have here another determinant of
foreign policy, which is the internal or domestic situation.
- Quincy writes, an eminent scholar of international politics and war, has observed
that a ruler prevents sedition by making an external war.
- For example, it is a common saying in India that Pakistan has been continuously
following an aggressive and hostile attitude towards India, as it has never been
able to deal with numerous internal issues, challenging its very legitimacy and
existence.
- Many people suspected that the nuclear explosion of 1974 in India, was primarily
meant to divert the attention of Indians from domestic difficulties and to
enhance the image of Mrs. Ghandi, who was then fishing in troubled waters at
home.
- Another example, President Nixon opponents criticized or alleged that in October
1973, he overemphasized the Russian threat in the Middle East and resorted to
nuclear alert because he wanted to escape from the Watergate scandal, which
was about to remove him from power. Later on, the resignation of President
Nixon, over the issue of Watergate scandal considerably limited, the foreign
policy of the USA under President Ford, thus it is the insecurity of the ruling elites
often projected or taken as domestic instability that molds the foreign policy on
several locations.

12. Especially in democratic countries, public opinion cannot be ignored as one of the
foreign policy determinants. It this often vague amenable to quick changes and
difficult to mobilize.
- But once in a particular problem, public opinion is mobilized and expressed in
clear terms, it becomes difficult for the government to overlook it while deciding
on the issue in question.
 - The force of the public opinion in the United States politics compelled the
government to order the withdrawal of the American forces from South
Vietnam.
- Therefore, decision-makers of each nation have to accept and give to place to
the opinion of the people. Undoubtedly, the decision makers as leaders have to
lead the public yet they also have to accommodate the demands of public
opinion.
- At present social media, as it becomes more accessible is one of the means by
which people, non-state actors and governments can share their foreign policy
priorities in an effort to receive feedback, engage in diplomacy, educate people
and attempt to influence foreign policy outcomes. These denotes that the media
plays a profound role in setting the public agenda and eventually influencing
foreign policy decisions.
 So, those are the internal or domestic determinants of foreign policy. We have public
opinion, internal situation, military capability, political system, political leadership,
quality of diplomacy, economic resources, ideology, demography, culture, and
history, as well as territory and geography.
At this point, let's proceed to the external determinants of foreign policy.
1. First, international law and international organizations.
- Since international law, denotes a set of rules that control relations between
states, it limits a state in one way or another. It regulates the foreign policy of
states and has provided a binding purpose in foreign policy. As it offers a legal
framework, through which the states can interact.
- The existence of international law and international norms, limits the freedom to
maneuver of states in the system. In some international law, defines the status,
the rights, the responsibilities and obligations of the nations in foreign policy.
- Thus, it is the responsibility of every state to observe the same, failure to comply,
entails consequences.
- International organizations, such as the United Nations have provided a very
influential role as determinants of foreign policy. Proponents of international
relations heavily disagree about the role of this organizations in the framing of
foreign policy of states.
- Nonetheless, such organizations are considered as active actors in the field of
international relations, as they facilitate the interaction between states at the
global level.
- The states foreign policy is less often affected by its membership in international,
regional and sub regional organizations. Since they surrender partially their
sovereignty to this organizations.
- As their operations will be guided by the constitution of the organization, the
policies of the member states will undoubtedly be affected by the nature of this
particular institution. A large number of international and regional organizations,
arrangements, agreements, and trading blocks, such as the European union, a CN
 African union, and several others have been major players in the international
system.
- Hence, it is obvious that the foreign policy of every state is now becoming
conscious of this organizations. Thus, international organization constitute a
determinant factor in the foreign policy of states.

2. Another determinant is the existence of a great power structure. It is commonly

believed that the fear of the superpowers is the beginning of political wisdom among
states. A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and
expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. This is done through the combined
means of economic, military, technological political, and cultural strength, as well as
diplomatic and soft power influence.
- Well, some nations are widely considered to be great powers, there is no
definitive list of them. China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United
States are often referred to as great powers due to their political and economic
dominance in the global arena. These five nations are the only states to have
permanent seats with veto power in the UN security council.
- The presence of competing great powers is a constraint on decision making. For
example, assume that we live in a world, we had four great powers of
comparable military and economic strength countries A, B, and C and the U.S.,
these great powers pursue their national interests at time seeking security
through power, but perhaps also spreading them democracy, promoting human
rights and developing international law.
- Beyond thinking about power, the national interests of this great powers will
likely vary according to their internal politics, normative aspirations, national
history, nationalism, culture, demographics, or resource endowment among
other factors.
- Naturally, in a world with such tremendous heterogeneity among states, finite
resources and national interests, we might expect to see some friction as great
powers interact in the pursuit of their respective foreign policy goals.
- The U.S. may not be able to realize a particular foreign policy goal, because it
recognizes that countries A and B have strong competing interests. The U.S.
might conclude that the benefit from achieving a foreign policy goal, may be
outweighed by the cost that countries A and B could impose on the U.S.
Similarly, country C may not pursue some of its goals for fear of antagonizing
another great power.
- In this environment, each great power is circumscribed in shaping its foreign
policy goals and determining the mechanisms to achieve them by the presence
of other competing great powers.
- So, if this is the case for great powers, imagine what it is like for small states like
the Philippines. The inevitable frictions of great power politics limit foreign policy
goals by imposing costs on the various state actors. Those costs serve as external
constraints on states foreign policy decision-making.
 - Next is, alliances. Alliances like international law to shape the foreign policies of
states because the member parties to the alliances have to respond to the
requests and demands of their allies and refrain from formulating policies or
taking actions, which are offensive to the Alliance partners.
- Alliance formation is considered a strategy that states use in the formulation and
implementation of their foreign policies. It has been observed that alliance
formation has been the most efficient mechanism available for acquiring the
most desired and achievable foreign policy portfolio and have implications in the
observation of foreign policy substitutability.

3. World public opinion also serves as a determinant of foreign policy because it

provides dynamism to the external environment. Although it is tough to know,
unless it becomes obvious and organized, and because it is always changing, like a
flicker of light, it influences foreign policy rarely. Only if the domestic public opinion
of many countries combined, then it becomes an effective world public opinion.

4. Lastly, the global environment, the other external factors that have a bearing upon
foreign policy are general world conditions. Whether it is we're prone or peace
oriented, whether we are surrounded by hostile or friendly neighbors. Special
endemic problems inflicting the region, like the Palestinian problem in West Asia also
affect our foreign policy. Political and economic global problems like arms race,
nuclear proliferation, economic depression, economic protectionism, economic
inequalities also have influence in the various states foreign policy. Another example
is the north and south problem and the refugee problem.