DR S. Jay Olshansky

Aging, Health, and Longevity
in the 21st Century

S. Jay Olshansky, Ph.D.
Professor, University of Illinois at Chicago
Co-founder and Chief Scientist, Lapetus Solutions, Inc. and
Wealthspan Financial Partners
Advisory Board: American Federation for Aging Research, PepsiCO
Advisor: U.S. Social Security Administration; WHO; JPMorgan; United Nations; Swiss Re; Prudential; AIG; …..
▪ Why is Human Longevity Predictable – and
Limited?
▪ Aging Science: A Breakthrough is Forthcoming
▪ Stage I & II Prediction Tools are Still Being

Used….when
▪ 21st Century Stage III & IV Prediction Tools

Have Arrived
▪ Revolutionizing Lifespan & Healthspan Assessment

and Financial Services: Operating Faster and
Smarter
The Bridge of Life
Carl Pearson
Current medical model focuses on

treating one disease at a time.
Younger
Geroscience delays and compresses

disease risks to later ages or Older
removes them entirely.
Why does death occur
with such regularity?
• There is a remarkable consistency to the
timing of death across species.
• Duration of life is calibrated to the onset and
length of a species’ reproductive window.
146,000 days
Greenland shark
77,000 days
bowhead whale
55,000 days
sea turtle
26,000 days
elephant
45,000 days
Human (max)
29,000 (avg)
5,000 days dog
1,000 days
mouse
Aging or senescence
is an accident of surviving
beyond the biological warranty
period for living machines
Olshansky, S.J. 2018.
JAMA.320(13):1323-1324
Daniel Perry
Richard A. Miller
Robert N. Butler
Genetics of long-lived people
Caloric restriction
Compounds with properties that

appear to slow aging
Parabiosis
Senolytics
Fight Aging by Killing Zombies
The Future is Here
Sticky Attributes
Education = q(x) at all ages
Physical Activity = q(x)
Male + Old Age + Married = q(x)
Physical Activity + Smoking = q(x) relative to smokers

Blood vs Questions?
Questions Win!
• Blood panel reveals a

fractional slice of time
• It has less predictive
power than a small set of
questions
• It reveals nothing about
right tail survival
What is Biodemography?
Life Event Prediction
Stage II Technologies Stage III Technologies
Stage I Technologies
Faster, more efficient,

technology upgrade, still Instantaneous, frictionless,
Ask people how long an albatross, and wrong personalized, more
they think they’ll live 96% of the time. accurate, using proven
methods of science.
Examples of Stage III & IV Technologies?
FOX03
2-3 fold increase in probability of

surviving to age 100; much higher chance
of surviving to age 90 relative to average
APOE
Stage V Technologies
Epigenetic Clocks
[left tail signals]
Source: Marioni et al., 2015. DNA methylation age predicts all-cause

mortality in later life. Genome Biology 16:25.
Telomere Shortening
[left tail signals]
This test requires two time points of
measurement to be useful in
gauging rate of change.
Breathomics
[left tail signals]
“…the altered cellular metabolism

of tumors and other diseased
tissues yields different chemical
“fingerprints” of volatile waste
products in breath exhaled by a
patient compared with a healthy
individual.”
Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-
31/detecting-disease-in-breath-with-world-
smallest-breathalyser/8759050
CancerSeek
[left tail signals]
Abstract
Earlier detection is key to reducing cancer deaths. Here
we describe a blood test that can detect eight common
cancer types through assessment of the levels of
circulating proteins and mutations in cell-free DNA. We
applied this test, called CancerSEEK, to 1,005 patients
with non-metastatic, clinically detected cancers of the
ovary, liver, stomach, pancreas, esophagus, colorectum,
lung, or breast. CancerSEEK tests were positive in a
median of 70% of the eight cancer types.
Source: Cohen et al., 2018. Detection and localization of

surgically resectable cancers with a multi-analyte blood
test. Science (18 Jan., 2018).
Retinal Age Gap and Arcus Senilis
[left tail signals]
Source: Zhu Z, Shi D, Guankai P, et al Retinal age gap as a predictive Source: Chambless LE, Fuchs FD, Linn S, et al. The association
biomarker for mortality risk British Journal of of corneal arcus with coronary heart disease and
Ophthalmology Published Online First: 18 January cardiovascular disease mortality in the Lipid Research Clinics
2022. doi: 10.1136/bjophthalmol-2021-319807 Mortality Follow-up Study. Am J Public Health.
1990;80(10):1200-1204. doi:10.2105/ajph.80.10.1200
Age at Menopause
[right tail signals]
The age-adjusted hazard ratio of

age at menopause was 0·982
(95% Cl 0·968-0·996, p=0·01)—
i.e., for each year's delay in the
menopause the cardiovascular
mortality risk decreased by 2%.
Source: van der Schouw, 1996. Age at menopause

as a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. The
Lancet 347:9003: 714-718.
100 year old proband 70 year old son
Photos from Dr. Nir Barzilai
Bob Benmoche
Lead Generation Video
3
2
Lapetussolutions.com
wealthspan.ai
jay@lapetussolutions.com
Simple is Good
There is no need to make the process of applying for
life insurance, or planning for retirement, more
complicated than it needs to be!

DR S. Jay Olshansky

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Aging, Health, and Longevity

in the 21st Century

▪ Stage I & II Prediction Tools are Still Being

▪ 21st Century Stage III & IV Prediction Tools

▪ Revolutionizing Lifespan & Healthspan Assessment

Current medical model focuses on

Geroscience delays and compresses

Compounds with properties that

Physical Activity = q(x)

Male + Old Age + Married = q(x)

Physical Activity + Smoking = q(x) relative to smokers

• Blood panel reveals a

Faster, more efficient,

2-3 fold increase in probability of

Source: Marioni et al., 2015. DNA methylation age predicts all-cause

“…the altered cellular metabolism

Source: Cohen et al., 2018. Detection and localization of

The age-adjusted hazard ratio of

Source: van der Schouw, 1996. Age at menopause

Photos from Dr. Nir Barzilai

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