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I want to cover three points: the development record since the first Tidewater meeting was
held under the sponsorship of the Overseas Development Council; what we have learned
about the development process in that period; and the implications for development
assistance policies-aid programs.
1. The great "development cooperation experiment" of the last 30 years has been—on
balance—a remarkable success. Current problems, including the persistence of mass
poverty and the current crisis in Asia, should not obscure that reality
l per capita GDP in the developing countries nearly tripled between 1960 and 1993
(from $330 in 1960s to $823 in 1993)
l life expectancy has jumped from 46 years to 63 years
l infant mortality has dropped from nearly 150 per 1000 births to under 60
l the population with access to safe water rose from 41 percent in 1975 to nearly 70
percent in 1996
l adult literacy jumped by 50 percent in the last two decades, and primary school
enrollments are at very high levels
l birth rates have dropped dramatically in almost every country (from over six births
per woman in the 1950s to 3.6 births, and still dropping), with the prospect that in the
coming century, the world's population could be stabilized at lower levels than
previously projected
l world food production has increased dramatically, and many more countries are now
capable of feeding themselves. In India—the ‘basket case' of the 1970s—food
production has quadrupled.
Nevertheless, major problems persist. The distribution of this progress has been very
uneven. Mass poverty persists in a number of countries. Most noticeably, Sub-Saharan
Africa has made little or no progress. The forces of globalization will exacerbate these
inequities if they are not addressed forthrightly.
It is quite clear that past programs of aid and development cooperation have been important
contributors to these development successes. Several examples underscore this reality:
l support for agriculture research and the dissemination of the results were the
underpinning of the Green Revolution which changed the nature of food production,
particularly in Asia
l the package of technologies and techniques that go under the heading of "child
survival" provided the underpinning for the dramatic decline in infant mortality and
the extension of life expectancy
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l the emphasis on family planning and slower population growth, including both
contraception and education, led to the decline in population growth rates that
provides the prospect for a stable world population midway through the next century
This remarkable record of progress is changing the nature of the relationships between
developed and developing countries:
l Developing countries are now important participants in the global economy. Their
share of world GDP will double by 2020, and they will account for nearly half of the
world's exports. It is impossible to talk about prosperity and progress in the old
industrial countries without being concerned about development in the rest of the
world.
l Most developing countries have much greater capacities and capabilities to manage
their own affairs—for better and for worse.
l While population growth is slowing, by 2050 we will have to deal with a world with 9-
11 billion people, double the number now on earth. New problems will have to be
faced—some stemming from past successes. People are living longer and
policymakers in ‘developing' countries will face twin challenges: they still will have to
find jobs for a large number of new entrants into the labor market, while at the same
time begin to deal with the health and social problems of the older segments of their
populations.
2. Much has been learned about the development process; these lessons need to be
applied.
The key lessons center on two issues: what makes economies grow? and what mix of
policies reduces poverty? At the risk of caricature, the changing and evolving emphases of
the last 30 years might be summarized in response to the following questions:
b. What Is the Role of Governments? (closely related to growth but not the same)
In the 1950s/60s, the role of government, particularly in planning and investment, was
central. (It was the era of five-year plans and A.I.D.'s long-range assistance strategies.) In
the 1970s, the role of government was to address poverty through direct interventions (and
Redistribution With Growth, to use the title of the influential book of that period). In the
Reagan/Thatcher revolutions of the 1980s, the view prevailed that less government was the
best. But by the 1990s, the development community had come to understand that the role of
government is important, particularly to create ‘market-friendly' conditions and to invest in
human capital; and to compensate for market failures through regulation, incentives, and
direct action, such as social safety nets.
improve growth itself). The new DAC goals are particularly important in this regard.
We have learned other important lessons, many of which were not even on the development
agenda at all thirty years ago:
a. There are clear environmental limits and we are beginning to push against them, globally
in the case of warming, and locally in too many areas. That reality puts a priority on new
means of livelihood for people who live in fragile areas where desertification and
deforestation are spreading, and for alternative patterns of less carbon-intensive
industrialization.
b. Neither development nor the end of the Cold War will bring peace and security. Ethnicity
and nationalism remain strong, and in some places virulent; they can block development
and even unravel it. But there is no neat relationship between economic growth and less
civil strife, particularly when the conflicts have deep historical roots.
c. Participation of poor people is essential, particularly in the programs that directly affect
them. This is particularly true for women, who were neglected by all of the early thinkers on
development (and to some extent still are). But participation on any level above small-scale
projects requires some system of representative structures—and the poor are often the last
to be included.
d. The politics of development are at least as important as the economics. Many countries
are now being asked to undergo "simultaneous transitions"* both political and economic.
The spread of democracy (a good in itself) may make economic and social reform more
difficult to manage.
We have arrived, therefore, at a much broader agreement than at any time in the last three
decades on strategies for development that reduces poverty. It is that:
l growth is important, for its own sake and for reducing poverty; however, it is not
sufficient
l measures to directly address poverty also are important for their own sake, but done
right enhance economic growth
l good governance and democracy are important for growth, and also desirable goals
in their own right
l investment in poor people by providing them increased access to education and
health, as well as by redistribution of productive assets (credit and land), and by
measures to support small-scale rural and urban enterprises, is critical
The key question is whether we will apply what we have learned—what three decades of
experience should have taught us. Given the record of the last four decades, a little modesty
on the part of the development community may be in order; we haven't always known what
is right, even when our heart was in the right place.
This broad agreement on development strategies should have diminished much of the
controversy over the uses and effectiveness of development aid. It has not. The utility of
ODA continues to be viewed with great scepticism in many quarters. Part of the reason lies
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in two sets of data on the record of reducing poverty that seem to conflict. On one hand, the
number of people living in absolute poverty continues to increase. However, the proportion
of people living in absolute poverty has shrunk drastically over the last several decades, and
more people are better educated, healthier, and live longer than ever before. Both sets of
data are correct, therefore, whether one thinks development and aid have succeeded, or
not, depends on which set of data is used.
This new "pro-poor growth paradigm," as my colleagues term it, poses great challenges for
the uses of ODA in the future. A decade ago, Robert Cassen wrote a seminal book entitled,
Does Aid Work?.** His answer was a qualified "yes," but only when aid had been used for
development purposes (rather than political or strategic aims).
Nevertheless, new insights are beginning to emerge, many of which are outlined in a recent
ODC Policy Essay.*** For example, we now know that while aid has had some remarkable
successes in helping to address particular development problems, it has, at best, a mixed
record in promoting policies to speed growth and focus on the policy changes needed to
eliminate poverty(The ODC Policy Essay summarizes a number of recent analyses of aid's
impact on these issues). Also, contrary to popular views on both left and right, aid has not
been a particularly powerful force and seems to have had no systematic effect on either
growth or policy change. It has only promoted growth in good policy environments, and has
not succeeded in imposing "good" policies on reluctant governments. The reason of which is
simple. In practice, aid allocations have not rewarded good performance or punished poor
performers. Therefore, aid has not been sufficient in changing policies where governments
were not willing to do so. Aid only works well when it reinforces the policy environment in a
country committed to growth and poverty reduction.
It is now possible, therefore, that the emerging consensus on development also may lead to
a new agreement on aid. The analysis of my colleagues at ODC points in several new
directions.**** They are worth serious discussion and debate:
Let me conclude by saying that I hope these brief thoughts have stimulated your thinking—
even if you strongly disagree with them. It is particularly important that we begin to address
them today. There is no doubt that we are at the beginning stages of a globalized world
economy. In that world, development remains critically important. Despite much progress,
much remains to be done—and it will have to be done in a world that is quite different; in
some ways much better; in some ways more difficult.
Globalization opens vast opportunities for economic and social progress not available
before. But if not managed wisely, it will bring costs, particularly to poorer countries and to
poor people throughout the world. The key challenge for development policymakers is to
craft policies that ensure that poor people and poor countries have the capacities to
maximize the opportunities and to buffer the inevitable costs.
As we mark the 30th anniversary of the Tidewater meetings, we all have the chance to
make this the end of the beginning of the "great development experiment"—and not the
beginning of the end.
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*Fragile Coalitions: The Politics of Economic Adjustment, Joan M. Nelson and contributors,
U.S.-Third World Policy Perspectives, No. 12, Overseas Development Council
**Does Aid Work? Report to an Intergovernmental Task Force, Robert Cassen and
Associates, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1986
***Perspectives on Aid and Development, edited by Catherine Gwin and Joan M. Nelson,
Policy Essay No. 22, Overseas Development Council
****Ibid
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of
ODC as an organization or its individual officers, Board, Council, or staff members.