Ukraine Indicators Update 2022.01.13

Indicators and Thresholds for Russian Military Operations in Ukraine and/or Belarus
Institute for the Study of War, Russia Team

UPDATED JANUARY 13, 5:00pm
Updates to this document since the previous publication on January 12, 5:00 pm are highlighted
New updates to this publication:
Russia
Russian Representative to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

(OSCE) Alexander Lukashevich threatened aggressive Russian action if the OSCE does
not provide a “constructive response” to Russian security demands “within a
reasonable time” following the Russia-OSCE Meeting on January 13.1 Lukashevich
threatened that if Russia does not hear a “constructive response to the proposals made within a
reasonable time, and the aggressive line of behavior against Russia continues,” then Russia would
“draw appropriate conclusions and take all necessary measures to ensure a strategic balance and
eliminate unacceptable threats to [Russian] national security."2 The Russian Foreign Ministry
published a statement on January 13 claiming that the OSCE faces a dilemma to either accept Russia’s
demands “or slide into a confrontation along the lines of the Cold War, a new arms race, a threat-
counterthreat competition with obvious risks for all OSCE participating states” that can have
“irreversible consequences.”3 Lukashevich said that the “coordinated position of the so-called
collective West pushes us to where [Russia] will not receive a constructive reaction to our proposals.”4
Lukashevich said that Russia’s security demands are "not a menu from which you can choose
convenient elements” and said they are of a “packaged nature.”5 Lukashevich said that the OSCE is in
a “depressing state of affairs” and that US and NATO policy to “contain Russia” is evident in the
OSCE’s “systemic degradation.” Lukashevich accused the US of sabotaging the Anti-Ballistic Missile
Treaty (ABM), Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), Open Skies Treaty, and not ratifying
the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, all with the “tacit consent of [NATO].”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow would not schedule a
second round of talks on security guarantees in Europe “in the near future” because the
US and NATO are not ready to meet Russia’s demands on January 13.6 Ryabkov stated that
the US and NATO are not ready to meet Russia’s “key demands for non-expansion of NATO, for
curtailing the alliances’ infrastructure [in Eastern Europe], and returning to its borders as of 1997.”7
Ryabkov accused NATO of being selfish and said that “it doesn’t occur to anyone in the Western camp
that anyone [outside the West] has their own security interest.”8 Ryabkov accused the US Congress of
falling victim to “total anti-Russian hysteria” and said that Russia would find alternatives and not
succumb to “blackmail” if the US government issues new sanctions against Russia.9 This is a rejection
of US and NATO’s January 12 offer to hold more discussions on arms control and transparency
parameters on military exercises. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman previously stated on
January 12 that the Russian delegation was not ready to commit to NATO’s proposed discussions but
did not reject the possibility of holding those discussions. Ryabkov’s statement indicates the Kremlin
rejected the US and NATO offer.
1 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov characterized the January 9-13 summits as
“unsuccessful negotiations” and said that the Kremlin will perceive US sanctions
against Russian President Vladimir Putin as an “outrageous measure that is
comparable to a break of relations” on January 13.10 Peskov responded to questions about
new US Senate bill against Russian high-profile officials.11 Peskov said that if the US imposed
sanctions against Putin, then it would be equivalent to “an initiative to break the [US-Russia]
relationship.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the US “promised to try to provide an
answer” to Russia’s demanded security guarantees “next week” (the week of January 16
– 22) on January 13.12 Lavrov described the West’s position at the January 12 Russia-NATO
Council meeting as “sufficiently tough, arrogant in some places, uncompromising,” and stated the
West stated its positions “calmly” and “in a businesslike manner.”13 Lavrov also stated that NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also volunteered to give a response on NATO’s behalf at an
unspecified date (implied to likely also be the week of January 16 – 22).
Over 1,000 signalmen of the 49th Combined Arms Army began conducting signals
exercises in Stavropol Oblast on January 13.14 Signalers deployed 30 kilometers to an
unspecified training ground and deployed field command posts and radio and communication
stations.
Russian Proxy Activity
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) claimed that Ukrainian forces deployed six heavy
weapon systems near three villages in Ukrainian government-controlled Donetsk on
January 13.15 The DNR claimed that Ukrainian forces deployed a 9K33 “Osa” air defense system to
Andriyvka, Donetsk, a BM-21 “Grad” multiple launch rocket system and three 152mm self-propelled
howitzers to Mangush, Donetsk, and a S-300 air defense system to Volodarske, Donetsk.
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) accused Ukrainian forces of shooting an

Organization for Security and Cooperation Special Monitoring Mission (OSCE SMM)
observation drone with small arms near Ukrainian government-controlled Chermalyk
Village, Donetsk Oblast, on January 13.16
United States
US Permanent Representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in

Europe (OSCE) Michael Carpenter rejected Russia’s security demands but rearticulated
calls for dialogue at the Russia-OSCE Meeting on January 13.17 Carpenter stated that the US
would not tolerate “overt or tacit spheres of influence” or restrict states’ right to join NATO if they so
choose.18 Carpenter said the OSCE must “decisively reject blackmail” and never allow “aggression and
threats to be rewarded.”19 Carpenter encouraged a dialogue on concerns over conventional military
forces, enhancement of military transparency, confidence building, and deconfliction. Carpenter told
reporters following the meeting that the West must prepare for the eventuality that Russia could
escalate against Ukraine; Carpenter said that “the drumbeat of war is sounding loud, and the
[Russian] rhetoric has gotten rather shrill.”20
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on January 13 that the Group of Seven (G7),
European Union, and NATO informed the Kremlin about “massive consequences” if
Russia invades Ukraine during US-Russia strategic stability and Russia-NATO Council
summits on January 10 and January 12, respectively.21 Blinken said that the West is drafting

unprecedented and “very significant” sanctions against Russia’s economic and financial sectors.
Blinken added that the US and NATO are looking at “shoring up even more the defenses of Ukraine if
necessary.” Blinken stated that NATO will not restrict its membership to eligible countries and urged
Russia to engage in a dialogue with the US, NATO, and Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE).
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with French, German, Italian, and
UK representatives who participated in the NATO-Russia Council summit to discuss
potential sanctions against Russia in Brussels, Belgium, on January 12.22 The officials met
after the summit’s conclusion and agreed to impose “massive consequences and severe costs,”
including “coordinated, restrictive economic measures" on Russia if Russia invades unoccupied
Ukraine.
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman discussed Russia’s military buildup on

Ukraine’s borders during a meeting with the Chief of Staff for the European
Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, Belgium, on January 12.23 The meeting
took place after the NATO-Russia Council summit.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken briefed new Czech Foreign Minister Jan
Lipavsky on US efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine on January 13.24
NATO/EU Activity
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said that the Baltic states and NATO are discussing
the possibility of increasing NATO military deployments to the Baltics to deter Russian
aggression in Europe on January 12.25 Reuters reported that military deployments to the Baltic
states could be discussed at a planned NATO defense ministerial in mid-February.
Ukrainian Political Activity
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine’s Western partners “fully
supported” Kyiv against Russian aggression at the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Council meeting on January 13.26 Kuleba said
Ukraine and its partners will continue to “implement a comprehensive strategy to deter Russia from a
new wave of war.” Kuleba added that “despite the unsatisfactory week of great diplomacy for Russia,”
the Kremlin must continue dialogue within OSCE framework.
Kremlin Narratives of the Day
January 13
- Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the US and
NATO of significantly “enlarging military development” in Ukraine by allocating
$200 million in defense funding to Kyiv in December 2021 on January 13.27
Zakharova said the Kremlin has concerns that US and NATO also promote “aggressive
militaristic rhetoric” and plan joint military exercises within Ukraine. Zakharova said that
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s readiness to participate in the Normandy Four
“looks simply populist” because Ukraine did not abide by the Minsk Accords.28 Zakharova said
that the West supports Ukraine’s violation of the Minsk Accords. The Kremlin continues to
push the narrative that the West manipulates the Ukrainian government to advance the West’s
crusade against Russia.

- Kremlin-sponsored media amplified a segment of Polish Foreign Minister
Zbigniew Rau’s speech about the elevated chance of war at the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) summit with Russia on January 13.29
Rau said that “the risk of war in the OSCE region today is much greater than ever in the last 30
years” in reference to the Kremlin’s non-starter security demands and threats against Ukraine
and NATO.30 The Kremlin media did not include this context likely to push a narrative that the
West seeks to conduct a war against Russia or reinforce the narrative about the inevitability of
war if the West does not meet Russia’s demands.
- Russian State Duma Vice-Speaker Petr Tolstoy said that Russia should restore the
borders of the Russian Empire and said that the Baltic states and Finland would
voluntarily “crawl back” to Russia within the next ten years on January 13.31
Tolstoy did not specify how the Kremlin would achieve this conquest.
Russia is setting conditions to conduct military operations against Ukraine and/or in

Belarus in the coming weeks or months. The Russian Federation has positioned military forces
around Ukraine’s border and near the border with Belarus able to initiate offensive operations on very
short notice with very little warning. Russian officials and media outlets have been setting conditions
in the information space to support such operations. This document is not intended as a forecast or an
assessment of the likelihood of any such Russian activities, all of which are also consistent with
Russian non-military lines of effort against Ukraine, Belarus, the US, and NATO.
Possible Russian military actions:

1) Overt deployment of Russian conventional military forces into Belarus on the pretext of
defending against planned NATO aggression.
2) Overt deployment of Russian conventional military forces into the Donbas region of Ukraine
ostensibly to preempt and prevent a Ukrainian attack on the region.
3) Invasion of Ukraine beyond occupied Donbas and Crimea with scenarios ranging from limited
incursions (possible) to a full-scale mechanized drive on Kyiv (unlikely).
These activities can be mutually reinforcing and are in no way mutually exclusive.
• Russian forces and information operations are postured to support overt deployments into
both Donbas and Belarus simultaneously.
• They could conduct those operations and also drive into unoccupied Ukraine simultaneously,
although they would likely require more reinforcements on the Ukrainian border than have yet
been observed.
• They could alternatively first deploy into Donbas and Belarus and then invade unoccupied
Ukraine as a subsequent phase.
ISW has been forecasting since October 2020 that Russia would deploy its own ground forces into
Belarus at some point. We have not forecasted that Russia would deploy its own troops into Donbas,
but such a development would not be inconsistent with the general trend of our assessments. We have
consistently held that an invasion of unoccupied Ukraine is highly unlikely and would not occur
without a major change in the situation and a visible Russian information campaign to set conditions
for such an action. We stand by that assessment.
This document is not a forecast or an assessment. It lays out the indicators we are using to
refine our assessments and forecasts, noting which ones have tripped, which have partially tripped,
and which have not tripped. It then presents the dominant narrative from the Kremlin for each day
starting on November 22, followed by a run-down of key activities by Ukraine and other states.

This is an interim document, which we expect to update regularly. We present this interim assessment
and forecast, along with indicators, to help frame ongoing discussions about Russian actions. This is
not a finished analytical product.
Military-Political Indicators
Tripped:
1. An increase of Russian command and control (C2) elements inside Donbas or in southern
or western Russia near the Russian-Ukrainian border. – Likely tripped, inferred from 8th
Combined Arms Army (CAA) announcement of command post exercise in Donbas, and
Ukrainian claims of increased Russian logistics support activities in Donbas throughout
November 2021.32 Ukrainian military intelligence additionally reported on December 14
that Russian officers began meeting with units commanders in Russia’s proxy 1st and 2nd
Corps in Donbas. 33
2. Decreased bandwidth on Russian railways for commercial enterprises since October. 34 –
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely moving lots of hardware.
3. Mobilization of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic
(LNR) militias. – Likely tripped given DNR/LNR reserves reportedly mobilized under 8th
CAA leadership on November 22.35
4. Mobilization of artillery elements at the regiment and brigade level. – Arguably tripped
with the Russian acknowledgement of significant mobilizations in the Southern Military
District on December 1. The Kremlin confirmed military mobilizations in Opuk, Crimea;
many artillery elements of the 58th CAA are likely still located in Opuk after the April
2021 buildup.
5. Increased rotary and fixed wing deployments near Ukraine – Arguably tripped. Inferred
from a New York Times (NYT) report on January 10 that Russia deployed additional
attack and transport helicopters and ground attack fighters closer to Ukraine in an
unspecified past time frame, citing anonymous US officials.36
Partially Tripped:
1. Increased volume of video recordings capturing Russian hardware moving in western
Russia towards Ukraine. – We have observed an increase in video volume in November.
Threshold: We still have not seen the same quantity of video as we saw in April, but we
are steadily approaching that point.
2. The Kremlin issues some form of political ultimatum to Kyiv or calls Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky in for senior talks. – Arguably tripped by notable Kremlin-aligned
think tank scholar Fyodor Lukyanov’s November 24 article in which he almost says that if
NATO does not give Russian President Vladimir Putin a solid promise that Ukraine won't
join NATO, there will be war similar to the Russia-Georgian war of 2008.37 There is still
no formal Kremlin statement of an ultimatum or a call for Zelensky talks.
3. More Russian deployments, mobilizations, or snap exercises at scale (maneuver elements at
the brigade, regiment, and/or multiple battalion tactical group level from the 1st Tank
Army, and the 20th, 8th, and 41st CAAs).
1. 20th CAA – Tripped. We may not see this occur in the open source (OSINT) if/when
it occurs. Approximately 700 snipers, likely of the 20th CAA, began conducting
reconnaissance and sniper exercises near the Ukrainian border on December 2. 38
Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) announced elements of the 20th
Combined Arms Army (CAA) will conduct brigade-level exercises near the
Ukrainian border in Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Smolensk oblasts on
January 11.39

2. 1st Tank Army – Likely tripped. The 1st Tank Army is likely establishing an
assembly area in Voronezh, Russia. Russian authorities on December 11 issued a
Notice to Airman (NOTAM) covering the Pogonovo Training Ground in Voronezh
from December 16-22.40 The Russian Ministry of Defense stated on December 9
that unspecified tank units (approximately 200 personnel) of the Western Military
District conducted live fire training with battalion-sized artillery elements at the
Pogonovo and Krintsa training grounds in Voronezh.41 Russian social media users
observed approximately two battalions of T-80 and T-72 tanks in Maslovka,
Voronezh, on December 8-11,42 and also observed Buk air defense systems likely of
the 49th Air Defense Brigade of the 1st Tank Army at railheads in Voronezh on
December 8.43 Social media users observed T-80s, likely of the 4th Tank Division
and equipment of the 2nd Tank Division, in Maslovka, Voronezh, in mid-
November.44 The likely deployment of elements of two divisions and air defense
units of the 1st Tank Army indicates significant elements of the army deploying to
Voronezh. The deployment of the 1st Tank Army to Voronezh, as opposed to
Belarus, indicates that the most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a
mechanized drive to Kyiv from Belarus is less likely.
3. 8th CAA –Tripped with the DNR and LNR reserve mobilization on November 22
and announcement of large Southern Military District exercises on December 1. 45
4. 41st CAA – Likely partially tripped. Independent OSINT observers claim they
observed more trucks of the 41st CAA deploy via rail from Siberia towards Yelnya
on December 1.46 Previously observed elements of the 41st CAA are still at Yelnya as
of December 1.47 The Russian Ministry of Defense additionally announced it formed
a new Tank Support Fighting Vehicle (BMPT) company—possibly at Yelnya—on
December 1.48
4. Mobilization of Russia’s Black Sea naval elements. – Partially tripped as of December 7.
Two large landing ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet loaded naval infantry for
amphibious assault exercises at the Opuk Training Ground in Crimea on December 7.49
The Caesar Kunikov and Novocherkassk large landing ships of the Black Sea fleet
onboarded an unspecified number of naval infantry at an unspecified location for future
exercises at Opuk on an unspecified future date. More than 500 marines of the Russian
Black Sea Fleet began conducting exercises at unspecified Crimean training grounds on
December 3.50 This mobilization does not constitute mobilization at scale but is significant
as Black Sea Fleet naval infantry’s first public battalion-sized mobilization since the crisis
began in October 2021. Black Sea Fleet naval aviation held an exercise of only 10 crews of
Su-27 and Su-30 on November 24.51 Missile ship Shuya of the Black Sea Fleet conducted
an exercise on November 26 in response to the announcement of the USS Arleigh Burke’s
deployment to the Black Sea.52 The Black Sea Fleet’s S-400 air defense units stationed in
Crimea conducted readiness exercises on December 15. 53
5. Mobilization of Russia’s Airborne Forces (VDV) – Partially tripped with the December 22
announcement of brigade-sized exercises by the 7th Airborne Division in Crimea and
Novorossiysk.54
6. MDCOA: Activations/mobilization/heightened readiness of the Russian Strategic Rocket
Forces (nuclear weapons). – We will very likely not see this in the open source if it occurs,
but it would be an indicator that an operation is imminent or already underway. Russian
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has made public statements suggesting that the SRF are
at heightened alert, however.55 Further partially tripped on January 2 after TASS
reported that Russia’s nuclear triad will hold command staff exercises in early 2022 as
part of Grom exercises. Grom exercises typically occur in the fall, however. Grom
exercises in early 2022 could provide cover to actual nuclear forces mobilization.

Not Tripped:
1. Mobilization of Caspian Sea Fleet elements in the Black Sea near Ukraine. – We may not
see this occur in the open source if/when it occurs. Caspian Sea Fleet elements may still be
in the Black Sea left over from the April 2021 buildup. Over 300 naval infantry of the
Caspian Flotilla conducted exercises with Southern Military District (SMD) air support at
the Adanak Training Ground in Dagestan on December 7.56 These exercises do not trip
this indicator but are significant as the Caspian Flotilla naval infantry’s first battalion-
sized exercises since the crisis began in October 2021. At least two Caspian Flotilla landing
craft deployed to the Black Sea in fall 2021.57
2. Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The Kremlin escalates the migrant crisis in
Belarus. The Kremlin would likely do so in order to set conditions for deployment of
Russian ground forces into Belarus.
3. MDCOA: Kremlin deploys ground forces to Belarus. – Not tripped yet.
Information Domain Indicators
Tripped:
1. The Kremlin publicly defines red lines. – Tripped on December 1 when Putin stated he insists
on “legal guarantees” that NATO will not expand further eastward towards Russia and called
for formal negotiations with the US.58 Partially tripped when Putin defined NATO
deployments of “shock weapon systems” to Ukraine as one Kremlin “red line” on November
30.
2. Belarus claims NATO is building up military forces near Belarus. – The Belarusian MoD
accused Poland of forming a “shock group” near Belarus on November 11 and accused
Lithuania and Latvia of building their own groups on November 23.59 Threshold: Russian
media has not been emphasizing this information operation yet. If the Kremlin media bolsters
it, then a Russian deployment to Belarus and the MDCOA is more likely.
3. Russian claims that weapon shipments to Ukraine destabilize the situation. – Tripped on
November 22.60 Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on December 15 that
the presence of 10,000 NATO servicemen in Ukraine impedes the implementation of the
Minsk Agreements. 61
4. Kremlin warns about a “repeat of Srebrenica.” – Tripped on December 10. Putin said that the
situation in Donbas resembles a genocide on December 9. Putin stated that “Russophobia is
the first step towards genocide,” and that current events in Donbas are “very reminiscent of a
genocide.”62 The head of Russia Today’s Russia and FSU desk resurfaced the Srebrenica
meme on November 23.63 The last time the Kremlin prominently mentioned the Srebrenica
meme was in December 2019, when Putin warned that a lack of amnesty for DNR and LNR
fighters would result in a second Srebrenica.64 News anchors on primetime Kremlin-run TV
claimed on December 10 that Ukraine is carrying out a “genocide against the Russian
nation.” 65
5. Intensified Kremlin information operations claiming NATO is deploying forces into
Ukraine or creating "NATO bases" inside Ukraine. – Tripped on December 15. Russian
MFA spokesperson Zakharova claimed on December 15 that NATO has 10,000 servicemen
in Ukraine, including 4,000 Americans. 66
Partially Tripped:
- MDCOA: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko requests Russian ground forces in
Belarus. – Partially tripped on November 29 with Lukashenko’s statement that Belarus
will support Russia during any military escalation in Donbas. Belarusian Defense
Minister Viktor Khrenin announced a joint military exercise with Russia on the
Belarusian-Ukrainian border on an unspecified future date. Khrenin additionally
announced Belarusian forces will begin major exercises on December 1.67
- Russian claims that Kyiv has de facto wholesale abandoned the Minsk Agreements and
Russia must therefore act to protect Donbas. – Overall not tripped, but some memes that
buttress this have been circulating.
1. Russian claims that “Zelensky cannot be reasoned with” or “Zelensky is abandoning
the Minsk Agreements.” – partially tripped for a long time. Threshold: This meme
has been on medium-low burner since spring 2020 after Zelensky rejected the
Kremlin’s call to implement the Steinmeier formula – one of the Kremlin’s preferred
interpretations of the Minsk Agreements. This would move to fully tripped if there
is an invigorated Kremlin media push around a centralized narrative that “Kyiv
has completely disregarded the Minsk Agreements.” This push has not occurred,
and this narrative has not left the backburner.
2. Russian claims that “Germany and France are de facto allowing Kyiv to get away
with ignoring the Minsk Agreements.” – Tripped on November 21.68
- Sustained or intensified Kremlin information operations claiming Ukraine is attacking or
preparing to attack Donbas. – Overall, not tripped, but the Kremlin has increased its
information operations supporting this narrative throughout December.
1. Kremlin claims Ukraine is attacking civilians. – Not tripped yet.
2. Kremlin claims Ukraine is amassing forces near Donbas. – Tripped on December 1.69
3. Kremlin claims Ukraine is attacking “ethnic Russians” or “Russian citizens.” – Partially
tripped as of November 29 when Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria
Zakharova said Russia will continue its humanitarian assistance for “Russian citizens”
in Donbas.70 The Kremlin also admitted a first batch of 100 Russian passport holders
in Donbas to join Putin’s ruling United Russia Party on November 30. 71 This
development could support a Russian information operation about Ukrainian attacks
against “Russian citizens in Donbas.” The Kremlin has not yet claimed Ukraine is
attacking ethnic Russians or Russian citizens in Donbas as of November 30.
4. Kremlin claims Ukrainian forces are using TB2 drones or Javelins against civilians in
Donbas. – Not tripped as of December 15.
5. Kremlin claims Ukraine is violating the demilitarized zones in Zolote, Stanitsa
Luhanska, and Petrivske. – Partially tripped as of November 28. The LNR People’s
Militia claimed that Ukrainian Army forces entered the disengagement zone in Zolote,
Luhansk, on November 28. The LNR claimed that it observed two soldiers of Ukraine’s
24th Mechanized Brigade inside former Ukrainian-held positions in the frontline
village of Zolote.72 Thresholds for this indicator include separatist claims of Ukrainians
violations of the two other Petrivske and Stanitsa Luhanska demilitarized zones (not
tripped yet), and large scale violations, such as full battalion deployments to Zolote,
Petrivske, and Stanitsa Luhanska. Russian proxy claims that two soldiers were
observed in the Zolote demilitarized zone occupies a low place on the threshold scale
for this narrative.
- Senior Kremlin officials and Russian media pundits increasingly discuss the conditions
under which Russian intervention in Ukraine is necessary, acceptable, or desirable. –
Partially tripped on December 27 when Russian State Duma Deputy Vladimir
Zhirinovsky called for Russian strikes against Ukraine and the West on New Year's Eve.73
- Official statements that Russia is “prepared to intervene if necessary” to prevent
humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine or secure Russian interest vis-à-vis NATO. – Partially
tripped after Sergey Lavrov gave an interview on December 31 in which he accused
Ukraine of perceiving NATO support for Ukraine as “carte balance for a military
operation” against Donbas and stated that Russia will take “all necessary measures” to
protect “Russian citizens” in Donbas.74
Not Tripped:
1. The Kremlin/Russian media stops denying a buildup around Ukraine – Not tripped yet.
2. Kremlin claims that actual or likely humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine necessitates overt
Russian intervention. – Not tripped yet.75
3. Kremlin claims that Russians who oppose direct action in Ukraine are “Western agents” or
victims of Western propaganda. – Not tripped yet.76
4. Senior Kremlin officials openly advocating for overt intervention in Ukraine. – Not tripped
yet.77
5. A fear campaign warning of an impending humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine targeting
ethnic Russians or Russian citizens outside occupied Donbas. – Not tripped yet, though
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave an interview on December 31 in which he
accused Ukraine of perceiving NATO support for Ukraine as “carte balance for a military
operation” against Donbas and stated that Russia will take “all necessary measures” to
protect “Russian citizens” in Donbas.78
6. Russian media entities supporting these narratives with a high volume of messaging in a
centrally directed manner to create a propaganda echo chamber in Russia’s domestic
information space. – Not tripped yet.79
7. MDCOA: A concerted Russian information operation to demoralize the Ukrainian population
ahead of a likely Russian offensive against Ukraine. – Overall, not tripped, but the Kremlin has
increased its information operations supporting this narrative throughout December.
1. Overt threats that Russia would intend to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other
significant Ukrainian cities. – Not tripped yet.
2. The high costs that war with Russia would entail for Ukraine. – Not tripped yet.
3. The inevitability of decisive Russian Victory in such a war. – Partially tripped on
December 31. 80
4. The West will not support Ukraine in such a war. – Not tripped yet.
5. Political capitulation to the Kremlin would preempt the war. – Not tripped yet.
6. Ukraine is not really a sovereign state is controlled by the West. – Partially tripped on
December 31. 81
8. MDCOA: Titushki (paid provocateurs) actions in Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Sumy, or
other significant Ukrainian cities. – Not tripped yet.
Kremlin Narratives / Memes of the Day
January 13
- Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the US and
NATO of significantly “enlarging military development” in Ukraine by allocating
$200 million in defense funding to Kyiv in December 2021 on January 13.82
Zakharova said the Kremlin has concerns that US and NATO also promote “aggressive
militaristic rhetoric” and plan joint military exercises within Ukraine. Zakharova said that
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s readiness to participate in the Normandy Four
“looks simply populist” because Ukraine did not abide by the Minsk Accords.83 Zakharova said
that the West supports Ukraine’s violation of the Minsk Accords. The Kremlin continues to
push the narrative that the West manipulates the Ukrainian government to advance the West’s
crusade against Russia.
- Kremlin-sponsored media amplified a segment of Polish Foreign Minister
Zbigniew Rau’s speech about the elevated chance of war at the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) summit with Russia on January 13.84
Rau said that “the risk of war in the OSCE region today is much greater than ever in the last 30
years” in reference to the Kremlin’s non-starter security demands and threats against Ukraine
and NATO.85 The Kremlin media did not include this context likely to push a narrative that the
West seeks to conduct a war against Russia or reinforce the narrative about the inevitability of
war if the West does not meet Russia’s demands.
- Russian State Duma Vice-Speaker Petr Tolstoy said that Russia should restore the
borders of the Russian Empire and said that the Baltic states and Finland would
voluntarily “crawl back” to Russia within the next ten years on January 13.86
Tolstoy did not specify how the Kremlin would achieve this conquest.
January 12
- Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova attacked US Under
Secretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland’s January 11 briefing on January
12.87 Zakharova responded to Nuland’s hypothetical statement that if Nuland were a Russian
citizen, she would invest money spent on fielding military units near Ukraine on Russian
domestic infrastructure and healthcare.88 Zakharova retorted that the US could fix its own
declining infrastructure by reducing US military bases in Europe and ceasing all financial
support for color revolutions and opposition leaders like Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana
Tikhanouskaya.89 Kremlin-sponsored media amplified Nuland’s statement that Washington is
influencing Germany and the European Union (EU) to delay the approval of the Nord Stream 2
pipeline on January 11.90 Russian media is pushing a narrative that the US disregards EU
interests in the American effort to advance US efforts against Russia.
- Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused US officials of issuing “aggressive
statements” about the US-Russia strategic security dialogue on Russian security
guarantees on January 12.91 Peskov said that Russia will continue conducting military
exercises because they are transparent and are not related to negotiations with the West. 92
Peskov additionally falsely stated that Russia “does not shower [dialogue partners] with threats
and ultimatums,” unlike the US.93
January 11
- Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s compared threats of US sanctions against
Russia as an American “information artillery barrage before negotiations” on
January 11.94 The Kremlin is likely pushing a narrative to depict the US as inflexible on
security negotiations for Russia’s domestic audience.
- Kremlin-sponsored media outlet Izvestia amplified retired Norwegian
Lieutenant General Robert Mood’s article to falsely imply that a Norwegian
officer proposed to admit Russia to NATO on January 11.95 Mood published an article
on January 9 in which he asked a rhetorical question of whether it is possible to envisage a
“more defensive NATO that is open to everyone, including Russia,” given that admitting former
adversaries, like Germany, into NATO helped liberalize those states.96 Kremlin media
miscontexualized Mood’s article and suggested that an active Norwegian officer advocated
admitting Russia into NATO to fix all current foreign policy problems between Russia and the
West.97 The Kremlin is likely supporting a narrative that there is rift between European Union
and NATO countries on relations with Russia.
- Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that White House
Press Secretary Jen Psaki is “incompetent” and undermines US leadership on
Russian state television on January 11.98 Zakharova’s comments followed Psaki’s claim
that Russian media is misreporting the outcomes of the January 10 US-Russia strategic
dialogue summit. Russian television often derides Psaki’s character and intelligence likely to
create a recognizable antagonist figure for Russia’s domestic audience.

- The Russian Foreign Ministry used increasingly irreverent rhetoric towards a
tweet from a Polish member of the European Parliament on January 11. Former
Polish Foreign Minister and current Polish member of the European Parliament Radoslaw
Sikorski tweeted that Russia is a “serial rapist” and that NATO will kick “Russia in the balls” on
January 10.99 Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova responded that Russia
is feminine and insinuated that Sikorski “fell victim to the concept of gender diversity.” 100
Zakharova has made similar irreverent statements in the past, but the tone of her statement is
uncharacteristic of the Foreign Ministry’s current serious tone following the US-Russia
strategic stability talks on January 9-10. Zakharova’s statement could be an early indicator of a
Russian information operation to create contempt for the West among Russia’s domestic
audience.
January 7
- TASS miscontexualized Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s
statements following January 10 talks with US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy
Sherman to suggest that Ryabkov was concerned about a Ukrainian or joint US-
Ukraine invasion of Russia.101 TASS reported that Ryabkov was concerned about
Ukrainian missiles striking Russia and Ukrainian soldiers “marching on Red Square.” Ryabkov
simply referred to a concern of Ukrainian or joint US-Ukrainian provocations against Donbas,
not an attack against Russia proper.
- Kremlin-sponsored media misrepresented Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for
European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishina’s statement on
maintaining diplomatic channels with Russia to avoid military escalations on
January 10.102 Russian media implied that Kyiv “confirmed its desire to cooperate with
Moscow” after NATO declared “its readiness for a military conflict with Russia in case of failed
Eastern European security assurances negotiations.” Russian media is likely advancing an
information operation to imply that Ukraine is a collapsing state that wants to resume relations
with Russia to avoid devastating consequences from a Western-waged war against Russia.
- Kremlin-sponsored media amplified claims that Ukraine is facing “African
hunger” and “economic and social collapse” under its current government and is
introducing food stamps on January 10.103 Russian media claimed that Ukraine’s food
industry could collapse with rapidly increasing gas prices. The Kremlin is likely advancing a
narrative that Ukraine is a collapsing state in need of Russian energy support.
- Kremlin-sponsored media claimed that Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany
Andriy Melnik issued an ultimatum to Berlin, demanding that Germany abandon
Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on January 10.104 Russian media claimed that
Melnik demanded that Germany reverse its veto on providing Ukraine with weapons. The
Kremlin continues to advance narratives to drive wedges between NATO and EU members and
suggest that that the West will ultimately abandon Ukraine.
- Kremlin-sponsored media quoted former Ukrainian Defense Minister Anatoly
Hrytsenko calling on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give up on
regaining Crimea on January 10.105 Russian media quoted Hrytsenko saying that there is
a “Russian spirit” in Donbas and that 80 percent of Donbas residents want to unite with
Russia. The Kremlin is likely advancing a narrative on Zelensky’s inevitable capitulation to
Russia targeted at Russia’s domestic population.
- Bloomberg reported on January 10 that Kremlin-sponsored media deescalated its
negative portrayal of Ukraine since early December in a pattern “almost
identical” to Russian information operations during the Russian troop buildup
near Ukraine in April 2021.106 Bloomberg claimed that Russian anti-Ukraine narratives
decreased in early December 2021 following the confirmation of the US-Russia and NATO-
Russia summits planned for mid-January 2022. Bloomberg also noted that negative Russian
media coverage of Ukraine decreased in April 2021 after the announcement of the June 2021
Geneva summit between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
January 7
- Kremlin-sponsored media misconstrued the Estonian defense minister’s concern
over the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s deployments to Kazakhstan,
stating that Estonian fears of Russian deployments are completely baseless on
January 7.107 Russian media claimed that Russian troops in Kazakhstan do not pose a threat
to the Baltics because Kazakhstan is geographically far from the Baltics. Estonia’s defense
minister said that Russian actions have not been transparent and that the fog of war creates
insecurity. This advanced an existing Russian media narrative that Russia does not pose a
military threat to Ukraine or any other state.
- Kremlin-sponsored media dismissed White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s
concern over the legality of the Collective Security Treaty Organization
peacekeeping deployment to Kazakhstan on January 7. 108 Russian media has
refrained from alleging US involvement in the protests in Kazakhstan ahead of mid-January
US-Russia and NATO-Russia summits as of January 7.
January 5
- Some Kremlin-sponsored media outlets began claiming that the West initiated
“color revolution” protests and a coup in Kazakhstan to destabilize Russia ahead
of US-Russia and NATO-Russia summits in mid-January on January 5.109 The
Kremlin has not launched a coordinated information campaign on this narrative yet, however.
Senior Kremlin officials and new sources have not yet referred to the protests in Kazakhstan as
a color revolution. Some Russian media implied that the Kremlin must think about saving
ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan in the event of a coup.110
- Russian State Duma Deputy Konstantin Zatulin claimed that Kazakh protests
have an unspecified “common planning center” on January 5.111 Zalutin said
unspecified initiators orchestrated numerous protests throughout Kazakhstan involving young
suburban people who are “susceptible to nationalist propaganda.” Zalutin said that the West is
not involved with organizing the protests, however Kazakh officials must promptly respond to
prevent future Western provocations in Kazakhstan and Russia112
- Russian State Duma Vice-Speaker Boris Chernyshov said that protests in
Kazakhstan are following the scenario from the 2004 Ukrainian Orange
Revolution on January 5.113 Chernyshov implied that the United Kingdom and United
States orchestrated political protests following successful Russia-Kazakhstan talks at the
Commonwealth of Independent States on December 28.114 Chernyshov claimed that protests
could not advance from high gas prices to political riots without a “reason.” Kremlin-sponsored
media will likely attribute emerging Kazakh protests to Western provocations ahead of US-
Russia and NATO-Russia summits in mid-January.
- Kremlin-sponsored media advanced a narrative on January 5 that German
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock seeks dialogue with the Kremlin to resolve
tensions at the Ukrainian border ahead of her planned visit to Washington on
January 5.115 Russian media included Baerbock’s statement that NATO’s power lies in
diplomacy rather than military capability. The Kremlin likely seeks to sow division among
European Union (EU) members, NATO members, and the US by advancing a narrative that the
United States disregards EU security interests.
- Kremlin-sponsored media claimed that the European Union (EU) “expressed
dissatisfaction” towards the United States and NATO for excluding the EU from
upcoming US-Russia and NATO-Russia talks, citing Western publications on
January 5.116 The Kremlin likely seeks to drive wedges between NATO and EU members by

advancing a narrative that the US is destroying Western blocs by disregarding EU security
concerns.
January 4
- Kremlin-sponsored outlet RIA Novosti claimed that the US and NATO seek to
turn Finland into a new “Ukraine-like” buffer state with Russia on January 4.117
RIA Novosti claimed Finland is reserving the right to join NATO because Helsinki is neglecting
the real threat of Finland losing its sovereignty and neutrality to the culturally different “Anglo-
Saxon” NATO alliance.
- Kremlin-sponsored media claimed on January 4 that Ukrainian forces detained
and charged a Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) officer in Luhansk on December
27 to support a Ukrainian information operation.118 Ukrainian government officials
detained and criminally charged a LNR militant after he attempted to cross the line of
demarcation on December 27.119 Russian media claimed that SBU likely hoped to capture a
Russian volunteer for a Ukrainian information campaign. Russian media claimed this
detention was a planned Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) operation given Ukrainian media’s
rapid coverage, lack of information about the Ukrainian unit that detained the militant, and the
alleged lack of military equipment on the detainee. Russian media further claimed that Ukraine
cut water supply from a water station to the LNR on January 2.120
- A Russian State Duma Deputy from Crimea said if Ukraine invades Crimea or
Donbas, then the “Ukrainian Army will face an unenviable fate” on January 4.121
The deputy said that a Ukrainian offensive will result in many Ukrainian prisoners of war,
desertions among the Ukrainian military, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
charged under an international tribunal. Russian officials are increasingly publicly discussing
how a Russian war with Ukraine would result with a decisive Russian victory.
- Kremlin-sponsored media emphasized that Ukraine faced the lowest levels of
Russian gas transit in the past two years on January 4, 2021.122 Russia’s Foreign
Ministry stated that Russia has no obligation to transfer all Europe-bound gas through
Ukraine.123 Russian media is setting conditions to push the narrative that “Ukraine will freeze
in the winter” without Russian gas.
- Kremlin-sponsored media quoted former US President Donald Trump’s Advisor Cory Mills on
January 4 to imply that current US President Joe Biden will be “weak” in upcoming talks with
Moscow based on Biden’s “foreign policy failures” in Afghanistan and Taiwan. 124
January 2
- Russian State Duma Deputy Vyacheslav Volodin called on the European Union,
Council of Europe, and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to
denounce Ukrainian marches celebrating the birthday of Ukrainian nationalist
figure Stepan Bandera on January 2.125 The Kremlin continues to push the narrative that
Western institutions are supporting the rise of neo-Nazism and Russophobia in Ukraine. This
narrative can support future Kremlin information operations about Ukrainian nationalist
threats against Donbas that necessitate Russian military intervention.
December 31
- Kremlin-sponsored media reported that Russia’s military can “defeat Ukraine in
less than ten minutes” citing an interview from the ex-head of the Ukrainian
Foreign Ministry’s Information Department Oleg Voloshin on December 31.126
Voloshin said that Ukrainian Armed Forces are not prepared for “modern high-tech war.”
Russian media cited Voloshin’s previous statements that the Russian military could defeat
Ukraine in a week because it would be unprofitable for Kyiv to maintain a war. Russian media
is increasingly pushing a narrative suggesting a decisive Russian victory in a war against
Ukraine.
December 28
- Kremlin-sponsored media amplified a former Ukrainian Minister of Economy’s statement on
December 28 encouraging Kyiv to refrain from calling Russia an “aggressor” in a bid to
promote dialogue between Kyiv and Russian President Vladimir Putin.127
December 26
- Russian State Duma Member Mikhail Delyagin on December 26 said we should expect a
Ukrainian attack against Crimea, Rostov-on-Don, Belgorod and Bryansk in February or March
2022.128 Delyagin said that the West is preparing Ukraine for this attack.
- Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said further NATO expansion is “a matter of life and
death” for Russia in a TV interview on December 26.129 Peskov said if Ukraine intensifies
military activities against Donbas, then “there will be a question of Ukrainian statehood.”130
December 24
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that NATO enlargement and strike missile
systems deployments to Ukraine will provoke “serious military risks” and a “large-scale conflict
in Europe” on December 24.131
- Kremlin-sponsored media quoted a former Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) officer on
December 24 stating that Ukrainian Armed Forces will use chemical weapons to attack schools,
hospitals, and mass gatherings in Ukrainian-controlled eastern Ukraine.132 Russian media is
continuing to spread Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s claim that Ukrainian forces
and US private military companies will use chemical weapons to attack Donbas.
December 23
- Kremlin media outlets amplified former Central Intelligence Agency officer
Philip Giraldi’s “prediction” that US efforts to train Ukrainian forces would result
in “disastrous consequences” for both the US and Ukraine on December 23. 133
December 21
- Pro-Kremlin media outlets amplified US Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby’s
December 20 statement that the US Air Force will not curtail its activities in the
Black Sea. Russian media condemned Kirby’s statement that US forces will continue to
operate where international law allows the US to do so.134 This information operation can
support Russian efforts to claim that the US has violated or wholesale rejected the Kremlin’s
demanded “red lines” on security guarantees.135
December 15
- Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the United
States and NATO of aggravating the situation in Ukraine by supplying Kyiv with
weaponry and training on December 15.136 Zakharova said that the presence of 10,000
NATO servicemen in Ukraine – 4,000 of which are American – does not help create conditions
for the implementation of the Minsk agreements. The Kremlin is escalating its narrative that
western support for Ukraine is preventing Kyiv from implementing the Minsk Agreements.
December 10
- Anchors on primetime Russian state TV claim a “genocide against the Russian
nation” is occurring in Ukraine on December 10.137 Kremlin media is increasingly
claiming that Ukraine is carrying out a “genocide” against ethnic Russians in Ukraine. The
Kremlin could leverage these false claims as a justification for overt military deployments in
Donbas or military action against Ukraine.
December 10
- Kremlin-sponsored media misquoted Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo
Klimkin that the West mistrusts Ukraine—likely to push the narrative of Western
abandonment of Ukraine—on December 10.138 Klimkin said that the West does not
know if Ukraine has a concrete national security plan, causing uncertainty among Western
partners. Russian media misconstrued Klimkin’s statements to imply that the West does not
trust an unstable Ukrainian government. The Kremlin is advancing a narrative that the West
will not defend Ukraine in the case of a military confrontation due to Ukrainian domestic
concerns.
- A known Russian information operations asset in Ukraine suggested on

December 10 that Ukraine and the West will conduct a joint military provocation
against Russia in 2022.139 Former pro-Russian Ukrainian Member of Parliament Ilya Kiva
said a joint military provocation between Ukraine and the West against Russia would allow the
West to block Nord Stream 2.140 Kiva is a known Russian asset who has participated in
information campaigns designed to undermine faith in the Ukrainian government and provoke
violent protests in Ukraine.141
December 9
- Putin said that the situation in Donbas resembles a genocide on December 9. Putin
stated that “Russophobia is the first step towards genocide,” and that current events in Donbas
are “very reminiscent of a genocide.”142 This is a significant Kremlin rhetorical inflection and is
the first time Kremlin leadership has framed events in Ukraine as a genocide since the crisis
began in October 2021. This likely marked the beginning of a new Kremlin information
operation to support Russian efforts to justify future Russian military activities in Ukraine. The
Kremlin and its media apparatuses have not yet wholesale pushed the “genocide” meme as of
December 11.
- Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov threatened Ukraine on

December 9 that Russia will suppress any Ukrainian “provocations” in Donbas.
Gerasimov said, “any provocations of the Ukrainian authorities to resolve the problems of
Donbas by force will be suppressed.”143 The Kremlin has not yet fully accused Ukraine of
deciding to use force in Donbas as of December 11.
- Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused NATO of increasing its military

presence in Greece to contain Russia on December 8.144 Peskov said that NATO and
US forces are shipping weapons through the Port of Alexandroupolis and concentrating in
Greece to create new NATO bases to contain Russia.
- Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Commander Alexander Dvornikov said

that NATO’s military buildup near Russian borders is among the SMD’s main
security threats on December 9.145 Dvornikov also included the possibility of an
escalation in Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the ongoing war in Syria among the SMD’s
main priorities.
- Kremlin and proxy republic narratives about alleged Ukrainian weapon

deployments closer to Donbas began unifying around December 9. Zakharova
reiterated the Kremlin accusation that Ukraine is deploying heavy equipment and artillery to

Donbas on December 9.146 The LNR militia accused Ukraine’s armed forces of deploying four
BTR-80 armored personnel carriers near the outskirts of Voitovo Village, Luhansk, and seven
BTR-80s to Raygorodokon, Luhansk, on December 9.147
- Zakharova said on December 9 that negotiations with Ukraine for a peaceful

settlement have “reached an impasse.”148 Zakharova said the regular Trilateral Contract
Group meeting held on December 7 and 8 ended in vain. The Kremlin is likely setting
information conditions to claim that Ukraine has wholesale abandoned the Minsk Agreements.
- Russian Permanent Representative to the Organization for Security Cooperation

Europe (OSCE) Alexander Lukashevich alleged that Ukraine is militarizing in
violation of the Minsk Agreements on December 9. 149 Lukashevich said that Ukraine
is outfitting its forces in Donbas with Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Lukashevich also accused
Turkey, the United States, Germany, the European Union, and France of supporting Kyiv’s
militarization efforts by providing weapons, financing weapons purchases, or participating in
international military exercises.
December 8
- Zakharova said Russia issued a protest note to the US embassy in Moscow on

December 8 in response to US jets “endangering civil aircraft” in the Black Sea on
December 3.150 Zakharova denounced NATO’s expansion to Russian borders and its threat to
international passenger airways.
December 7
- Kremlin-sponsored media coordinated a response to US Undersecretary of State
for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland’s Senate testimony on December 7. Peskov
denied that Russia seeks to restore the Soviet Union.151 Kremlin media manipulated Nuland’s
discussion of Russian military expansion to imply that the Russian army has “significant
superiority” over Ukraine.152 The Kremlin notably did not release a coordinated narrative
regarding US President Joe Biden and Putin’s videoconference immediately following their call
on December 7.
- Russian news agency TASS published an article on December 7 claiming that

Zelensky may strip Donbas residents of their Ukrainian citizenship.153 The article
speculated that a potential Ukrainian policy change on dual citizenship regulations that
Zelensky discussed on December 1 could enable Zelensky to deprive Donbas residents of
opportunities to obtain Ukrainian citizenship.
- Russian media falsely claimed the OSCE observed Ukraine deploying tanks and
howitzers to Donbas on December 7.154 The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine
observed 30 Ukrainian tanks and 17 Ukrainian howitzers at two railway stations in Ukrainian
government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk on December 6.155 The OSCE stated this
hardware was in compliance with withdrawal lines.
December 6
- Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Deputy Secretary General Valeriy
Semerikov said NATO’s provocations are unnoticed by international
organizations in an interview on December 6.156 Semerikov stated that NATO, “under a
far-fetched pretext,” is expanding military infrastructure and deployments in Eastern Europe.
Semerikov added that NATO exercises near CSTO member states increased in other regions.157

December 5
- Kremlin-sponsored media accused Ukrainian Armed Forces of deploying 17 tanks
and two armored personnel carriers to three Ukrainian government–controlled
settlements in eastern Ukraine on December 5.158 Russian media only specified that
Ukraine deployed the T-64 tanks to Artyomivske, Donetsk Oblast. Russian media also claimed
that Ukraine deployed the 20th Electronic Warfare Battalion to Ukrainian government–
controlled eastern Ukraine to suppress Organization for Security and Cooperation Europe
(OSCE) unmanned aerial monitoring in Zolote, Novoivanovka, and Orekhovo, Luhansk Oblast,
on December 4.159 The OSCE did not report any Ukrainian deployments in the region on
December 4-5.160
- Zakharova accused NATO of endangering civilian aircraft over the Black Sea on
December 5.161 Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency claimed that a Russian airline Aeroflot
flight from Tel Aviv to Moscow had to change directions over the Black Sea because of a NATO
reconnaissance aircraft on December 3.162 Zakharova denounced increased NATO activity near
Russian borders.163
- Zakharova responded to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s

characterization of the Kremlin as a “provocateur” on December 5.164 Zakharova
chastised Psaki and referenced the United States’ military actions in Hiroshima and Nagasaki,
Vietnam, Belgrade, Baghdad, the depositions of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, and
alleged US participation in color revolutions worldwide.
December 3
- Kremlin-sponsored media manipulated Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken
Huitfeldt’s November 30 interview to falsely suggest that Norway opposes any
NATO force presence near any Russian border on December 3.165 Huitfelt said that it
is in Norway’s security interests for Norwegian vessels to accompany NATO ships and planes
when NATO conducts exercises near Russia’s northern sea border with Norway.166 Russian
media falsely said Norway condemned all NATO operations along Russian borders.
December 2
- Zakharova decried the NATO foreign ministerial meeting which occurred in Riga
on December 2.167 Zakharova said on December 2 that the Kremlin has defined Ukraine’s
accession to NATO as a long-term “red line.” Zakharov stated that NATO’s increased
cooperation with Ukraine is the “de facto beginning of NATO’s assimilation of [Ukraine’s]
military infrastructure” to support NATO military operations against Russia. Zakharova
reiterated that NATO must halt its eastward expansion to resolve the current situation.
- Kremlin-sponsored media conducted a coordinated information campaign

stating that military action is “highly likely” in Donbas and Crimea following
Zelensky’s speech to the Ukrainian Parliament on December 1.168 Peskov said that
the “Kyiv regime is determined to use all opportunities, including force, to encroach on
[Crimea],” on December 2.169 Peskov stated that the likelihood of Ukrainian military activity in
Donbas is “still high.”170 Kremlin media that targets Western audiences is supporting this
meme.171 A centralized intensified Kremlin information operation claiming Ukraine will attack
Donbas or Crimea would indicate that Russian military operations in Donbas are likely
imminent. The Kremlin has not elevated this meme to reach that threshold as of December 2.

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on December 1 that Russia knew
about a claimed Ukrainian deployment of 125,000 troops near Donbas for a
while.172 Lavrov’s December 2 statement buttresses a meme about a claimed Ukrainian
deployment of 125,000 troops to Donbas that first appeared in the Russian information space
on December 1.173 Lavrov stated that Ukraine accumulated troops under the guise of seasonal
troop rotation. Lavrov accused the West of concealing the Ukrainian troop movements.
December 1
- Zakharova said that Ukraine undermined the Minsk Agreements by deploying
125,000 troops to Donbas on December 1.174 Zakharova stated that NATO states are
preparing to send military personnel to Ukraine and claimed that London intends to send 600
British servicemen to the “Ukrainian civil war.” Zakharova said Kyiv is using a bill passed in
August to forcefully return Donbas to Ukraine and exit the Minsk Agreements. Zakharova said
Western media created mass “hysteria” about a potential Russian invasion in a bid to cover
Ukrainian military developments in the east.
November 30
- The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) issued a rebuttal to NATO’s statement that
NATO poses no threat to Russia on November 30.175 The MFA said NATO threatens
Russia because the alliance seeks to expand in Russia’s “eastern flank,” is “uncontrollably”
expanding in Europe, and breaches treaties. The MFA said Russia is acting in a “purely
defensive nature” against NATO’s purposeful provocations executed via “large-scale” and
“unplanned” exercises in the Black Sea. The Kremlin will increase information pressure against
NATO in tandem with Russia’s military buildup against Ukraine in winter 2021-2022.
- Lavrov said the United States “surrounded” Russia with its military bases during
a November 30 speech.176 Lavrov said Russia observes daily Western troop and equipment
deployments near Russia under the guise of being in response to Russian military exercises.
Lavrov said NATO lied for 30 years about not expanding towards Russian borders. Lavrov said
that the United States intervenes in other states’ domestic affairs under the guise of “spreading
democracy,” refuses international cooperation, and disregards their obligations in the United
Nations.
November 29
- Kremlin-sponsored media mischaracterized an annual Ukrainian exercise
authorization bill to claim Zelensky is violating the Minsk Agreements by
allowing foreign troops to participate in training exercises in Ukraine in 2022.177
Zelensky registered an annually recurring bill to authorize foreign military deployments to
Ukraine for training exercises to Ukraine’s Parliament on November 29.178 Russian media
falsely framed Zelensky’s bill as Ukrainian preparations to attack Donbas. 179
November 28
- Peskov accused “Anglo-Saxon media” of driving false “hysteria” about a Russian
attack against Ukraine on November 28. Peskov said “this hysteria, which is now being
whipped up in the Anglo-Saxon media, in the Ukrainian media and is supported by Ukrainian
politicians headed by the head of state—we consider it absolutely unacceptable.”180 Peskov said
that accusations against Russia may be an attempt for Ukraine to conduct a military offensive
against Donbas: “…we have already said that this escalation may be an attempt to hide
[Ukraine's] own preparations for a military solution to the Donbas problem.”181

- The LNR People’s Militia claimed that Ukrainian Army forces entered the
disengagement zone in Zolote, Luhansk, on November 28. The LNR claimed that it
observed two soldiers of Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade inside former Ukrainian-held
positions in the frontline village of Zolote.182 Zelensky ordered Ukrainian forces to withdraw
from Zolote in November 2019 as part of an experimental disengagement.183 Ukrainian
disengagement from Zolote (and two other frontline positions at Stanitsa Luhanska and
Petrivske) was very likely a Kremlin condition for the December 2019 Normandy Format talk
in Paris, France. Kremlin and Kremlin proxies have not claimed Ukrainian violations of
Stanitsa Luhanska and Petrivske demilitarized zones as of November 28.
November 27
- Russian propaganda is increasingly targeting the US and “US propaganda” about
a Russian invasion in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director
Sergey Naryshkin said on November 27 that the United States is trying to inflame the conflict
in Donbas by spreading false propaganda alleging a planned Russian invasion of Ukraine.184
“The [Americans’] goal is to try to push the poorly-controlled Kyiv authorities to rekindle the
conflict…with renewed vigor.” Naryshkin continued to deny any Russian invasion plans. A
central Russian information operation is pushing this meme. Naryshkin made this statement
on Rossiya 1 (primetime tv news) and mainstream Kremlin outlets (Sputnik, Izvestia, RIA
Novosti, TASS, and others) are recirculating it. This is likely the key narrative of the weekend
for the Russian domestic information space. Conditioning Russian citizens to perceive all
reports of a Russian invasion as being American propaganda is likely a key Kremlin
information objective for the weekend of November 27-28.
November 26
- Russia’s representative to the OSCE, Alexander Lukashevich, accused Kyiv of
conducting a disinformation operation about a Russian offensive to justify
NATO’s expansion in Ukraine and near Russian borders on November 26.
Lukashevich said Kyiv is spreading falsehoods about Russian aggression to “justify the current
build-up of NATO's potential and activity near the Russian borders, to create the preconditions
for the enhanced military development of the territory of Ukraine by the alliance, and finally to
justify Kyiv's sabotage of the Minsk Agreements.”185
November 25
- Zakharova focused on framing Kyiv as an increasingly belligerent aggressor in
Donbas at the MFA briefing on November 25. She said the Ukrainian government is
fueling the situation in Donbas and “pushing for military (force) resolution of the conflict
inside of Ukraine,” as the Ukrainian government feels it can do so unpunished. 186 Zakharova
also talked about Ukraine increasingly using prohibited weapon systems in Donbas.
- Lukashevich accused Ukraine of attacking freedom of speech in Ukraine on

November 25. Lukashevich cited the recent staff firings at the Kyiv Post and Zelensky’s ban
of pro-Russian opposition media outlets in February 2021.187 This meme can support efforts to
reinforce the narrative that Kyiv is targeting Russian entities.
November 24
- Shoigu says Russia's nuclear capabilities and armed forces need to maintain
combat readiness in light of the increased activity of NATO countries near
Russia's borders.188

- Peskov says that Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev’s
narrative on November 23 about Ukraine potentially facing a migration crisis was
“well-reasoned.”189
- Reserve Colonel Oleg Zhdanov said, “the United States is deliberately escalating
tension around the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border.”190
- Fyodor Lukyanov—a prominent Kremlin foreign policy thinker—published an

article in which he almost says that if NATO does not give Putin a solid promise
that Ukraine will not join NATO, there will be war similar to the Russia-Georgian
war of 2008.191
November 23:
- Peskov said, “the lack of progress in the implementation of the Minsk Agreements
is a significant irritant and trigger that leads to the level of tension in Europe as a
whole,” on November 23.192
- Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev stated that Ukraine
might face a refugee crisis. He blamed the West for de facto establishing a protectorate in
Ukraine and destroying Ukraine’s economy, and stated that “any moment the situation [in
Ukraine] can explode and millions of refugees will run to seek shelter in other places.” 193
- Shoigu stated that the US Global Thunder-22 exercises included ten strategic
nuclear bombers postured against Russia.194 The Pentagon responded on November 24
and said, “These missions were announced publicly at the time, and closely planned with
[Strategic Command], [European Command], allies, and partners to ensure maximum training
and integration opportunities as well as compliance with all national and international
requirements and protocols.”
- Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov announced

the risk of a repeat of the Afghan scenario in Ukraine. Kartapolov said “All US efforts
to ‘help’ Ukraine are leading it to an abyss." Kartapolov urged people to recall "how the
American adventure in Afghanistan ended."195
November 22:
- The press bureau of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued a
statement claiming that Washington is spreading false information about
Russian preparations for an attack against Ukraine. “The provocative policy of the
United States and the European Union, which deliberately strengthens Kyiv’s sense of
permissiveness and impunity, is of extreme concern. We observed a similar situation in
Georgia on the eve of the 2008 events.”196
Updates on Key States’ Activities
Russia
Russian Representative to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in

Europe (OSCE) Alexander Lukashevich threatened aggressive Russian action if
the OSCE does not provide a “constructive response” to Russian security
demands “within a reasonable time” following the Russia-OSCE Meeting on
January 13.197 Lukashevich threatened that if Russia does not hear a “constructive response
to the proposals made within a reasonable time, and the aggressive line of behavior against
Russia continues,” then Russia would “draw appropriate conclusions and take all necessary
measures to ensure a strategic balance and eliminate unacceptable threats to [Russian]
national security."198 The Russian Foreign Ministry published a statement on January 13
claiming that the OSCE faces a dilemma to either accept Russia’s demands “or slide into a
confrontation along the lines of the Cold War, a new arms race, a threat-counterthreat
competition with obvious risks for all OSCE participating states” that can have “irreversible
consequences.”199 Lukashevich said that the “coordinated position of the so-called collective
West pushes us to where [Russia] will not receive a constructive reaction to our proposals.”200
Lukashevich said that Russia’s security demands are "not a menu from which you can choose
convenient elements” and said they are of a “packaged nature.”201 Lukashevich said that the
OSCE is in a “depressing state of affairs” and that US and NATO policy to “contain Russia” is
evident in the OSCE’s “systemic degradation.” Lukashevich accused the US of sabotaging the
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), Open
Skies Treaty, and not ratifying the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, all with
the “tacit consent of [NATO].”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow would not
schedule a second round of talks on security guarantees in Europe “in the near
future” because the US and NATO are not ready to meet Russia’s demands on
January 13.202 Ryabkov stated that the US and NATO are not ready to meet Russia’s “key
demands for non-expansion of NATO, for curtailing the alliances’ infrastructure [in Eastern
Europe], and returning to its borders as of 1997.”203 Ryabkov accused NATO of being selfish
and said that “it doesn’t occur to anyone in the Western camp that anyone [outside the West]
has their own security interest.”204 Ryabkov accused the US Congress of falling victim to “total
anti-Russian hysteria” and said that Russia would find alternatives and not succumb to
“blackmail” if the US government issues new sanctions against Russia.205 This is a rejection of
US and NATO’s January 12 offer to hold more discussions on arms control and transparency
parameters on military exercises. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman previously
stated on January 12 that the Russian delegation was not ready to commit to NATO’s proposed
discussions but did not reject the possibility of holding those discussions. Ryabkov’s statement
indicates the Kremlin rejected the US and NATO offer.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov characterized the January 9-13 summits as

“unsuccessful negotiations” and said that the Kremlin will perceive US sanctions
against Russian President Vladimir Putin as an “outrageous measure that is
comparable to a break of relations” on January 13.206 Peskov responded to questions
about new US Senate bill against Russian high-profile officials.207 Peskov said that if the US
imposed sanctions against Putin, then it would be equivalent to “an initiative to break the [US-
Russia] relationship.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the US “promised to try to
provide an answer” to Russia’s demanded security guarantees “next week” (the
week of January 16 – 22) on January 13.208 Lavrov described the West’s position at the
January 12 Russia-NATO Council meeting as “sufficiently tough, arrogant in some places,
uncompromising,” and stated the West stated its positions “calmly” and “in a businesslike
manner.”209 Lavrov also stated that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also volunteered
to give a response on NATO’s behalf at an unspecified date (implied to likely also be the week
of January 16 – 22).

Over 1,000 signalmen of the 49th Combined Arms Army began conducting signals
exercises in Stavropol Oblast on January 13.210 Signalers deployed 30 kilometers to an
unspecified training ground and deployed field command posts and radio and communication
stations.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko threatened a “military-

technical” response against further NATO expansion and signaled NATO must
make concessions or face military consequences following the Russia-NATO
Council meeting on January 12.211 Grushko participated in an extraordinary Russia-NATO
Council meeting with US Assistant Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in Brussels on January
12. Grushko said that the Kremlin is not discussing any compromises and said that Moscow is
waiting for NATO’s response to Russia’s security demands.212 Grushko said that Russia will
take “all measures, political and military-technical, … to prevent any infringement of legitimate
Russian security interests.”213 Grushko said that NATO’s expansion “seriously worsens
[Russian] security and creates unacceptable risks… which we will confront.”214 Grushko stated
that “further [NATO] expansion is fraught with risks that will outweigh [the benefits] of further
expansion.”215 Grushko said de-escalation requires NATO to stop all military assistance to
Ukraine, stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, recall all NATO personnel from Ukraine, and for
Ukraine to adhere to the Minsk II Accords.216 Grushko accused NATO of becoming antagonistic
towards Russia and turning to “the old NATO” and “1949 Cold War schemes” aimed at
containing Russia; Grushko said that NATO abandoned its previous positive agenda on
cooperating with Russia on Afghanistan, counterterrorism, counternarcotics, and anti-piracy
issues.217 Grushko accused the US of destroying the arms control system in Europe and
lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, and reiterated that Russia’s proposed
treaty bans the deployment of “strike systems” to areas where it is possible to strike the
territory of other signatories.218 Grushko expressed support for restoring Russia’s diplomatic
presence in NATO if NATO “turns around” and accepts “collective efforts to build security.”219
Grushko framed Russia as a “guarantor of peace in the Euro-Atlantic space” and stated that
NATO must work with Russia to achieve peace in Europe.220
NATO collectively denounced Russia’s “non-starter” security demands but

proposed holding future unspecified discussions on areas of mutual cooperation
at the Russia-NATO Council meeting in Brussels on January 12.221 US Deputy
Secretary of State Wendy Sherman reiterated that NATO will not compromise on Russian
demands on restricting eligible states from seek NATO membership, holding negotiations
without Ukraine, returning to NATO’s 1997 borders, or ending all NATO expansion. Sherman
stated that NATO told the Russian delegation that escalation does not create optimum
conditions for diplomacy and reiterated that the US provided Russia with ideas where the two
states could take reciprocal actions to improve strategic stability. Sherman and NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg supported holding another NATO-Russia Council meeting
“soon” to have deeper discussions on unspecified areas of mutual cooperation (likely arms
control and reciprocal exercise transparency) to strengthen security for all states. Sherman
added that the Russian delegation was not ready to commit to NATO’s proposed discussions,
but did not reject the possibility of holding those discussions. Sherman reiterated that Russia’s
Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will not be allowed to become operational if Russia renews
aggression against Ukraine. Sherman also stated that the US coordinated with Group of Seven
(G7) members on January 11 to plan economic measures to undermine the Russian economy
and financial system if Russia further invades Ukraine. Sherman reiterated that the Kremlin
must make a choice between “de-escalation and diplomacy or confrontation and consequences”
and that NATO is collectively preparing for every eventuality.

Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin claimed that “removal of
tension in the world right now” depends on the US decision to accept Russian
security demands on January 12.222 Volodin added Washington will “take the
responsibility for the possible consequences” if Washington fails to provide a timely response
to Russia’s demanded security guarantees. Volodin made these statements before the Russia-
NATO Council meeting concluded.
The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) OSINT group observed likely elements of the
5th Separate Tank Brigade of the Russian Eastern Military District deploying in
the western direction, possibly towards to Ukraine, in early January.223 The 5th
brigade elements’ destination is unclear as of January 12. Russian social media users
additionally posted videos of unidentified Russian military elements moving on railways in
eastern Russia’s Amur, Khabarovsk, and Buryatia regions throughout early January.224 These
elements could indicate a Russian effort to generate forces to deploy to near Ukraine or
Belarus.
Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Commander Alexander Dvornikov

announced on January 12 that the SMD will finalize the formation of two new
divisions by the end of 2022.225 Dvornikov likely referred to finalizing the formation of the
19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle
Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army. Dvornikov said that both divisions will have at least
one motorized rifle regiment and one tank battalion without providing further details. The
Kremlin may use elements from the central or eastern military districts to generate forces for
these new divisions. The Kremlin will likely downplay the formation of new Russian units near
Ukraine by framing the new units as simply being based at their “permanent garrisons”
without mentioning that these units previously did not exist near Ukraine.
Russian Baltic Fleet minesweeper George Kurbatov permanently transferred

from the Russian Baltic Fleet to the Russian Black Sea Fleet on January 12. The
George Kurbatov arrived at the Black Sea Fleet’s main base in Sevastopol and formally joined
the Black Sea Fleet on January 12.226
Over 10,000 troops of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD), Black Sea
Fleet, and Caspian Flotilla began battalion tactical group exercises on January
12.227 Unspecified elements of the SMD, Black Sea Fleet, and Caspian Flotilla are conducting
exercises in battalion tactical groups at unspecified training grounds. The battalion tactical
groups will practice reconnaissance tasks, fires, counter-battery fire, aviation strikes, and
sniper tasks. Pre-exercise training for these exercises occurred in over 20 training grounds
across the SMD in Crimea, and Kuban, Rostov, Stavropol, Volgograd, Astrakhan, North
Ossetia, Chechenia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and
Armenia.
Naval infantry and sapper elements of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and artillery
elements of the 22nd Army Corps began conducting battalion-sized exercises in
Crimea on January 11.228 Over 500 servicemen deployed to unspecified training grounds in
Crimea for the exercises.
The Kremlin demanded the US quickly advance security negotiations on January

11, in a likely attempt to pressure the US into concessions through a sense of
urgency. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the Kremlin
expects a “prompt, prompt response” from Washington on Russia’s demanded security

guarantees and said “the ball in the [US’] court” on January 11.229 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov said, "we are absolutely not satisfied with the endless delay of this process," and
characterized US-Russia security negotiations as “not a process for the sake of a process” on
January 11.230 Peskov also accused the United States of using threats of new sanctions as
preparing “information artillery” against Russia ahead of negotiations.231 The Kremlin did not
immediately state this adversarial position directly following the US-Russia strategic stability
dialogue’s conclusion on January 10.
Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) announced elements of the 20th

Combined Arms Army (CAA) will conduct brigade-level exercises near the
Ukrainian border in Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Smolensk oblasts on
January 11.232 Approximately 3,000 troops of the 3rd and 144th motorized rifle divisions will
conduct fire and maneuver exercises with T-72 tanks, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, and
small arms. Unit participants will participate in a simulated battle with tanks and infantry
fighting vehicles striking targets at ranges up to 1,200 meters.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu temporarily restricted Russian military

personnel from taking official business trips and vacations outside of Russian
territory on January 11.233 Shoigu made the announcement during an MoD conference call.
Shoigu did not specify the parameters of restricting travel for military personnel besides stating
“there is a need to temporarily reduce business trips and vacations outside the country” to
prevent the spread of COVID-19 in the Russian military. Shoigu announced the restriction
alongside several other measures to combat COVID, including additional staffing at Russian
medical universities and increasing testing capacity. This action may truly be intended to limit
the spread of COVID-19, which has spiked in Russia with the Omicron variant. However,
retaining military personnel within Russia could be an indicator of military mobilization
preparations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a Russian Security Council meeting on

“security and infrastructure problems” in Russia’s border regions on January
11.234 The Kremlin readout did not provide any additional details.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on January 10 that Russia deployed
additional attack and transport helicopters and ground attack fighters closer to
Ukraine in an unspecified past time frame, citing anonymous US officials.235 The
NYT reported that Russian ground forces’ movements towards Ukraine have slowed in an
unspecified past time frame, likely December 2021. The NYT reported that US intelligence
officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet decided whether to conduct
offensive operations against Ukraine. The NYT reported that anonymous US officials said that
Russia has “just under 60 battalion tactical groups on the ground” and between 85,000 to
100,000 troops near Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov denied Russian plans to attack
Ukraine but insisted that the US and NATO make political concessions to avoid “a
worsening security situation” during strategic stability talks with US Deputy
Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in Geneva on January 9-10.236 Ryabkov claimed
that the US did not need to threaten Russia with potential sanctions because the Kremlin does
not plan to invade Ukraine if negotiations fail.237 However, Ryabkov also reiterated that
Russia’s demands are firm and threatened that, “if [the West] is unable to [be flexible], then
[the West] will face a worsening situation in the area of their own security.”238 The Kremlin will
likely not reach a policy decision until after the last meeting on January 13 concludes. Ryabkov

characterized the US-Russia talks as “difficult, long, very professional, deep and specific” and
“without attempts to sugarcoat anything,” but stated that Russia will have to determine its next
policy steps after further meetings with NATO and the Organization for Security and Co-
operation in Europe (OSCE) on January 12 and 13, respectively.239 Ryabkov called on the US to
stop ignoring Russia, stated there are no planned US-Russia presidential meetings, and
insinuated that Ukraine or the US could conduct a military provocation against Donbas.240
Ryabkov stated that Russia will continue conducting military exercises, said NATO has an
“active deployment” to Ukraine, and characterized US media reports of a Russian military
buildup near Ukraine as disinformation.241 US Director of Operations of the Joint Staff James
Mingus and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Aleksandr Fomin accompanied Sherman and
Ryabkov to the bilateral talks.
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman did not concede the Kremlin’s
desired security demands but stated openness to negotiating missile placement
and reciprocal military exercise parameters.242 Sherman stated that the US was “firm”
in pushing back on Russian security proposals that are “simply non-starters;” Sherman stated
the US will not forego bilateral cooperation with sovereign states and that NATO will not end
its policy of allowing eligible states to seek NATO membership. Sherman also stated that both
sides are open to discussing ways to set reciprocal limits on the size and scope of military
exercises and improve exercise transparency. Sherman stated that she and Ryabkov discussed
missile placement in Europe and that the US is open to discussing the future of “certain missile
systems in Europe… along the lines of the now-defunct [Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces
(INF)] Treaty.” Sherman pushed back on the Kremlin’s efforts to hastily negotiate diplomatic
deals, stating that though the Kremlin seeks to negotiate “swiftly,” the Kremlin must give the
US the time and space that complex arms control issues require. Sherman stated that there will
be “significant costs and consequences well beyond what [Russia] faced in 2014” if Russia
attacks Ukraine again.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov emphasized that the US should
prepare for compromises and show flexibility in negotiations with Russia in an
interview with Perviy Kanal on January 9.243 Ryabkov reiterated that Russia’s position
is firm, and that the West should make concessions. Ryabkov said that Russia has been
accepting Western impositions for 30 years and that diplomacy now requires Western
flexibility.244 Ryabkov threatened the West that Western security would deteriorate if the West
is unable to make concessions.
Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) announced on January 10 that SMD

forces will conduct exercises at 20 training grounds across the SMD at an
unspecified time in winter 2022.245 Unspecified SMD elements will conduct exercises to
test companies’ ability to mobilize as a new element in a larger battle formation. The exercises
are likely intended to prepare individual Russian companies for rapid mobilization that may
crosscut Russian unit boundaries, integrating the additional units that continue to deploy to
the Ukrainian border. Army aviation helicopters will also conduct electronic warfare exercises
to block enemy UAV signals. These exercises will occur in unspecified training grounds in
Crimea, Rostov, Kuban, Stavropol, Adygea, Dagestan, North Ossetia, Chechnya, Astrakhan,
Volgograd, and at Russian military bases in Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. The SMD
has not decreased its force posture near Ukraine as of January 10, 2022.
Russia’s Caspian Flotilla announced on January 10 that over 1,000 Flotilla

personnel will conduct exercises throughout January 2022.246 The Caspian Flotilla
also announced that its naval infantry units began preparing for small arms, artillery, and

combat vehicle live fire exercises at the Adanak Training Ground which will occur on a future
unspecified date, likely in January 2022.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that NATO needs to return
to its 1997 borders on January 9.247 Ryabkov told TASS that the West must abandon
NATO expansion and eliminate unspecified existing military infrastructure in Eastern Europe.
Reuters quoted Ryabkov saying that NATO must eliminate “everything that the alliance has
created since 1997."248 Current NATO members Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Czechia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, and Croatia, Montenegro, and North
Macedonia were not NATO members in 1997.
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and elements of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army
conducted air defense exercises with S-400 and Pantsir-S air defense systems in
Crimea on January 9.249 Air defense units practiced detecting and tracking aircraft at low
altitudes.
State Duma Committee Chairman for Commonwealth of Independent States

Affairs Leonid Kalashnikov said on January 7 that it is unlikely that the West
triggered the protests in Kazakhstan ahead of security talks with Russia in mid-
January.250 The Kremlin likely has decided to not conduct a full-fledged information
operation to frame protests in Kazakhstan as a Western hybrid war as of January 7.
Kalashnikov previously said he would support a hypothetical decision for a permanent Russian
deployment to Kazakhstan on January 6.251
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed Moscow has not yet
seen any US willingness to compromise on US-Russia strategic stability talks over
the past six months on December 6.252 Ryabkov specified curtailing eastern NATO
enlargement, not admitting new NATO members, not deploying certain weapons in
unspecified countries, and not conducting proactive exercises as “absolutely necessary
inalienable elements” of its demanded security guarantees.
Fifteen surface ships in Russia’s Caspian Flotilla conducted snap combat

readiness drills at the flotilla’s base in Dagestan on January 5.253 Approximately 200
servicemen participated in the exercise.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on January 4 that

Russian forces reinforced the advanced positions of its Donetsk and Luhansk
proxy forces in occupied Donbas during the New Year holidays. 254 GUR reported
that Russian forces deployed more reconnaissance systems and sniper pairs to the front lines
in Donbas and conducted artillery exercises.
The five nuclear-weapon states of Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom,
China, and France issued a joint statement on preventing nuclear war and
avoiding an arms race on January 3.255 The joint statement reaffirms the five nuclear-
weapon states’ commitment to avoiding a nuclear war and their commitment to their Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on January 3 that Northern Fleet

naval aviation pilots will conduct training in Crimea at an unspecified future
date.256 Su-33 and MiG-29K pilots of the Northern Fleet will deploy to Crimea for these
exercises.

TASS reported on January 2 that Russia’s nuclear triad will hold strategic
command and staff exercises in early 2022.257 TASS reported that a “source close to
Russia’s Defense Ministry” said that the exercises would occur as part of Russia’s recurring
“Grom” exercises in the beginning of 2022. The Russian military usually does not conduct
Grom exercises early in the year; Grom typically occurs in September or October. 258 Russia
holding Grom nuclear readiness exercises in early 2022 could help obfuscate an actual Russian
nuclear forces mobilization in the event of a Russian military operation against Ukraine.
Russian gas company Gazprom continued suspending gas transit through the
Yamal-Europe gas pipeline for 12 consecutive days as of January 2.259 The Kremlin
likely reduced gas transit to Europe to increase energy pressure against Europe as the Kremlin
seeks to complete the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and political concessions
on security assurances from NATO.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave an interview to Russia Today on

Ukraine and Russia’s demanded security guarantees on December 31.260 Lavrov
said that the draft documents published on December 17 are aimed at creating a new system of
legal agreements based on the principles of “indivisibility of security” and the “abandonment of
attempts to achieve military superiority,” which Lavrov claims Euro-Atlantic states imposed in
Europe the 1990s. Lavrov said that Russia may reach “other agreements” on conventional arms
control in Europe, but specified these agreements would not resemble the “long-outdated”
Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Lavrov reiterated Kremlin demands that
senior US and NATO military officials participate in negotiations with Russia. Lavrov accused
Ukraine of perceiving NATO support for Ukraine as “carte balance for a military operation”
against Donbas and stated that Russia will take “all necessary measures” to protect “Russian
citizens” in Donbas.
At least two Caspian Flotilla landing craft deployed to the Black Sea in fall 2021.261
New satellite imagery from November and December 2021 observed two Caspian Flotilla
landing craft in the Black Sea near Novorossiysk. Caspian Flotilla landing craft also deployed to
the Black Sea in April 2021. These landing craft likely redeployed to the Caspian Sea in summer
2021 and then deployed again to the Black Sea in fall 2021.262
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova discussed upcoming

negotiations with the US and responded to Josep Borell’s comments on EU
involvement in security discussions on December 30.263 Zakharova confirmed
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov and US First Deputy Secretary of State Sherman
will lead the Russian and US delegations in Geneva on January 10. Zakharova reiterated
Russia’s main demands are “the non-advancement of NATO to the east and the non-
deployment of weapons systems that threaten Russia at the borders of our country.”
Zakharova additionally responded to Josep Borell’s comments on December 29 that the EU
must have a part in security discussions with Russia. Zakharova decried the “polyphany”
among Western states regarding policies towards Russia, and stated Russia will only conduct
European security discussions with NATO and the OSCE. Zakharova blamed the EU for
Russia’s security concerns and claimed the EU is fully subordinate to NATO on security topics.
Russia’s ambassador to Germany claimed NATO discussions about providing

weapons to Ukraine serve as “proof” of Russia’s need for security guarantees on
December 29.264 Russian Ambassador Sergey Nechaev claimed the “militarization of
Ukraine” is counterproductive and demonstrates Russia needs security guarantees from the

West enshrined in international law. Nechaev made these claims in response to a statement by
future Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Chairman Friedrich Merz that Ukraine’s requests
for weapons are “without a doubt legitimate in view of the Russian army’s massive build-up of
troops on its eastern border.”
Russian gas giant Gazprom declined to ship gas through the Yamal-Europe
pipeline for the ninth day in a row on December 29.265 Gazprom claims European
customers have not submitted reservations for gas and accused Germany of reselling gas
purchased from Russia under long-term contracts at a higher price. European gas prices
reached an all-time high of $2,000 per thousand cubic meters in mid-December. The Kremlin
is likely halting gas sales to Europe to coerce European states, primarily Germany, into
concessions at upcoming security talks in January.
Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) General Andrey Serdyukov

published an essay on the VDV’s capabilities and confirmed the establishment of
a VDV regiment permanently based in Crimea on December 29.266 Serdyukov’s
essay appeared in Russian military newspaper Red Star. Serdyukov stated the VDV carried out
more than 2,500 training events in 2021, primarily during Russia’s Zapad-2021 exercise in
Belarus. Serdyukov stated the VDV formed an airborne assault regiment in Crimea in 2021,
referring to the 56th Air Assault Regiment. The Kremlin redeployed the 56th VDV brigade
from its permanent base near Volgograd to Feodosia in Crimea in March 2021, and announced
the brigade would transform into a regiment by the end of 2021.267
Unspecified signal elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army conducted signals
defense exercises at the Tarskoye Training Ground, North Ossetia, on December
28.268 Signal elements protected communications infrastructure from simulated enemy
electromagnetic and chemical weapon attacks.
An unspecified number of Southern Military District Su-25SM fighter-bombers

conducted 360 bombing runs and rocket launch exercises in Stavropol on
December 28.269
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov demanded on December 28

that high-ranking NATO military officials attend the US-Russia talks on January
10 and Russia-NATO talks on January 12 to add a “professional dimension.”270
Ryabkov added that Russia will “put a barrier” on NATO expansion.271
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed Russia’s participation in two

separate talks with the United States and NATO in early January on December
27.272 Lavrov said Russia seeks two agreements: US-Russian agreement on legal security
guarantees and a NATO-Russia deal on limiting “risks and threats in the European theater.”
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said that alleged NATO
provocations have a “high risk of escalation into an armed confrontation” on
December 27.273 Fomin alleged that NATO’s use of reconnaissance aircraft in the Black Sea
increased by more than 60 percent in the last year.
Russian State Duma Deputy Vladimir Zhirinovsky called for Russian strikes
against Ukraine and the West on New Year's Eve in a TV interview on December
27.274 Zhirinovsky stated that joint NATO and Ukrainian exercises are evidence of Western
preparations for a “real war.” Zhirinovsky is a Kremlin-controlled actor but not an influential

Kremlin policymaker. His overt call for military action against Ukraine is significant, however,
and could foreshadow a future Russian information operation which would explicitly call for
military action against Ukraine.
Over 500 personnel of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, including electronic warfare
elements, conducted exercises in Crimea on December 27.275 Electronic warfare
specialists practiced collecting radio signals intelligence and suppressing targeted radio
communication channels of a field communications center.
Approximately 2,000 Caspian Flotilla naval infantry began platoon exercises at

the Adanak Training Ground on December 27.276 Platoon commanders are practicing
managing subordinate units and attached reinforcement equipment. The naval infantry are
practicing command and control, reconnaissance, engineering, fire, and maneuver combat
tasks.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said that Chechnya is ready to deploy infantry
forces to prevent the West from building military bases in Ukraine on December
27.277
Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) announced that it completed exercises

with over 10,000 troops on December 25.278 Several Russian state-owned, Russian
opposition, and Western media outlets inaccurately framed this announcement as 10,000
Russian personnel near Ukraine withdrawing and redeploying away from Ukraine.279 The
SMD stated that over 10,000 personnel of unspecified SMD units finished exercises in Rostov,
Kuban, Crimea, Astrakhan, Volgograd, Stavropol, "in the Republics of the North Caucasus,"
and in Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and would redeploy to their permanent
garrisons. Russia likely has not decreased its force posture around Ukraine, however. Units
permanently stationed in Crimea, Rostov, and Kuban returning to their permanent garrisons
are still default postured against Ukraine. This announcement does not address the significant
Russian buildup near Ukraine with Central and Western Military District elements in
Voronezh and Yelnya. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told US members of Congress
that Russian forces have not withdrawn from near Ukraine on December 24.280
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova gave a briefing on

Ukraine on December 24.281 Zakharova said Kyiv “seems to be preparing for a military
solution” for Donbas. She called NATO members’ support for Ukraine’s “crusade against their
own population” deeply regrettable. She condemned a growing foreign military presence in
Ukraine and claimed there are approximately 10,000 foreign military instructors in Ukraine,
4,000 of which are Americans. She said Ukraine has joined a “US-inspired information
campaign” to accuse Russia of building invasion forces near Ukraine and condemned the US
sending weapons to Ukraine.
The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) accused an unidentified individual of

conducting a terrorist attack against the Russian consulate in Lviv, Ukraine, on
December 24.282 The MFA claims an unknown person threw a Molotov cocktail at the
entrance of the consulate. The MFA accused Kyiv of failing to fulfill its obligations to provide
security to Russian diplomatic facilities.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Western

observers of distorting Russia’s security guarantee demands on December 25.283
Zakharova accused unspecified actors in the United States and “Western countries” of making

statements that NATO will not discuss NATO curtailing eastern expansion in talks with
Russia. Zakharova said that NATO’s non-expansion and not deploying weapon systems that
threaten Russian borders are the main issues in the upcoming negotiations with the United
States and NATO.
Approximately 50 personnel of the Baltic Fleet conducted air defense exercises

with Pantsir-S air defense systems on December 25.284 Black Sea Fleet naval aviation
and UAVs acted as simulated targets.
A Russian soldier posted a video on TikTok with the hashtag “we are being
deployed to Ukraine” on December 23.285 It is unclear if the TikTok post is accurate. If
accurate, this video is one of the first publicly available Russian soldier-generated social media
posts on Russian deployments towards Ukraine since the crisis began in October 2021.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual marathon press conference on
December 23.286 Putin typically holds an annual press conference. Most of the 2021 press
conference focused on domestic issues, but Putin additionally made several statements on
Ukraine. Putin accused Ukraine of “squeezing Russians and the Russian-speaking population
out of their historical territory.” Putin accused Ukraine of not implementing the Minsk Accords
and forming an “anti-Russia” which receives Western weapons and “brainwashes” the
Ukrainian population to hate Russia. Putin said that Ukraine undermined the ceasefire by
giving Ukrainian field commanders operational clearance to conduct strikes, as opposed to the
decision-making being centrally controlled in Kyiv. Putin said Ukraine has not made
constitutional amendments stipulated by the Minsk Accords and refuses to talk to proxy
representatives. Putin accused Ukraine of trying to solve the conflict in Donbas with force twice
in the past. Putin said that Russian actions depend on the “unconditional provision of Russia's
security today and in the historical perspective.” Putin argued the US would react similarly to
Russia if Russia attempted to place missiles in Canada or Mexico as NATO has placed weapons
in Romania and Poland. Putin accused the US of “cheating” and “blatantly deceiving” Russia
about not expanding NATO further east in the 1990s. Putin reiterated that he requested that
the US and NATO negotiate ending NATO’s eastern expansion and stated that NATO and the
US “should answer us with something.” Putin said that US officials are giving a “positive
reaction” and claimed that US officials said they are ready to start discussions in Geneva “at the
beginning of the year.” The US has not officially confirmed any planned talks.
Russia sent a “humanitarian aid” convoy to the Luhansk People’s Republic on

December 23.287 The convoy arrived in the LNR on December 23 and is Russia’s 105th so-
called humanitarian convoy to Donbas to date.288 Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry
claimed the convoy caried more than 185 tons of medicine and medical equipment.289 This
convoy likely carried weapons and ammunition given documented past Russian weapon
shipments to Donbas under the guise of “humanitarian aid convoys.”
More than 1,000 servicemen – likely of the 439th Artillery Regiment – and a tank
battalion of an unspecified motorized rifle unit likely of the 8th Combined Arms
Army conducted fires exercises at the Prudboy Training Ground on December
23.290 The exercises practiced command and control cohesion in destroying targets and
adjusting fires using unmanned aerial vehicles.
Satellite imagery published on December 23 shows a unit likely to be the 136th

Motor Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army at the base of the 133rd

Logistics Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet in Bakhchysarai, Crimea, on December
13.291
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on December 22 that brigade-sized

airborne exercises would occur in Novorossiysk and Crimea from December 21-
24.292 Over 1,200 airborne personnel of the 7th Airborne Division and possibly elements of the
56th Airborne Regiment will participate in battalion tactical exercises at the Raevsky and Opuk
training grounds in Novorossiysk and Crimea, respectively, on December 21 to 24. Russia’s
military will also deploy Mi-35 helicopters for amphibious assault and to provide air cover for
attacking troops. This is the first brigade-sized airborne forces exercise that the Kremlin has
announced since the crisis began in October 2021.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov met with the Head of the
European Union Delegation to the Russian Federation Markus Ederer to discuss
Russia’s demanded security guarantees from NATO and the US on December
23.293
Unspecified elements of the 150 Motorized Rifle Division conducted air defense
exercises with Igla man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) in Rostov on
December 23.294
Independent Russian news outlet Meduza reported on December 22 that Russian

recruiters are mobilizing mercenaries for operations in Donbas.295 Meduza
reported that recruiters associated with the Russian Interior Ministry, Russian National Guard,
Ministry of Defense, and Union of Donbas Volunteers have been making offers to both
professional mercenaries and generic Donbas war veterans since November 2021. The report
states that a former Wagner Group mercenary who fought in Syria received a call from Russian
mercenary recruiters in fall 2021 for a “new project” that included a deployment to a training
facility in Vesyloly, Rostov-on-Don, as part of this new recruitment drive. The mercenary
stated that the Russian military mobilized Russian mercenaries who fought in eastern Ukraine
in 2014 at this training ground in Vesyloly. The Meduza report also claims there is a
recruitment drive to create two military formations in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s
Republics consisting of former Russian convicts. Meduza’s sources did not know whether the
newly recruited detachments would be sent on offensive combat missions or simply deploy to
Donbas to perform security tasks.
Russia deployed an unknown number of Su-34 bombers from Novosibirsk to

Lipetsk on December 22.296 Lipetsk is approximately 300 kilometers from Ukraine’s
northeastern border with Russia. The quantity of Su-34 bombers in this deployment is unclear.
This deployment could support Russian military activity against Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on December 22 that Russia and US
will hold their first round of talks on security guarantees in Europe in January
2022.297
Over ten Russian Caspian Flotilla ships and air defense personnel conducted air
defense exercises in the Caspian Sea on December 22.298 The participating ships
included the missile ships Tartarstan and Dagestan and the small rocket and artillery ships
Grad Sviyazhsk, Uglich, Volgodonsk, Makhachkala, and Astrakhan. The participating ships
practiced neutralizing enemy aircraft and cruise missiles. The Russian Navy could potentially

transfer ships from the Caspian to the Black Sea to support any operations against Ukraine.
However, these exercises are likely routine.
Approximately 200 personnel of the Black Sea Fleet and the 22nd Army Corps
conducted exercises to repel enemy reconnaissance and sabotage attacks in
Crimea on December 22.299
Battalion-sized artillery and tank elements of the 49th Combined Arms Army
conducted fire and maneuver exercises in Stavropol on December 22.
Approximately 400 personnel used T-72 tanks and 152-mm self-propelled artillery to destroy
enemy armor at distances up to 12 kilometers.300
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu accused the United States of planning of
a chemical weapon attack in Donbas at a Ministry of Defense collegium with
Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 21.301 Shoigu said Russia has evidence
that the US deployed 120 American private military contractors with chemical weapons to
Avdeevka and Priazovskoe in Donetsk. Shoigu claimed that cooperation between NATO and
Ukraine constitutes a Russian security threat because Kyiv attempts to solve the conflict in
Donbas by force. Putin accused NATO of building up NATO forces near Russian borders and
conducting unplanned large-scale exercises. Shoigu accused Poland of creating infrastructure
to accommodate a US armored brigade and nearing completion of an Aegis Ashore anti-missile
system in Poland. Shoigu said the United States and NATO are increasing the scale and
intensity of military exercises near Russia and practicing using strategic aviation to conduct
simulated nuclear strikes against Russia. Putin said that NATO has adapted Mark 41 vertical
launchers located in Romania to use Tomahawk missiles. Putin said that NATO plans to deploy
Mark 41 launchers to Poland and that the deployment of such weapons to Ukraine would be a
serious Russian security challenge. Putin said that he gave NATO and American leadership
proposals on how to start negotiations on security agreements. Putin reiterated that Russia
seeks “long-term, legally binding guarantees” because the US withdraws from all international
treaties. Putin said Russia will take “adequate retaliatory military-technical measures” if the
West continues along its “clearly aggressive line.”
Russian gas company Gazprom suspended gas transit through the Yamal-Europe
gas pipeline on December 21 and 22.302 The Kremlin likely reduced gas transit to Europe
to increase energy pressure against Europe as the Kremlin seeks to complete the certification of
the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and political concessions on security assurances from NATO.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Titov held a meeting to coordinate

policy with Russia’s ambassadors to Central and Eastern European states in
Budapest on December 21.303 Russian ambassadors to Austria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia,
Germany, Czech Republic, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein participated in the meeting.
Unspecified artillery elements of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division

conducted indirect fire exercises with 122-mm howitzers in Rostov on December
21.304
Unconfirmed social media video from December 19 allegedly depicted several

hundred Russian reservists moving across an unspecified field on an unknown
date.305 If accurate, this video is the first open-source evidence of reservist mobilization since
the crisis began in October 2021.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said that Russia would
consider Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offer to host Russian
nuclear missiles in Belarus if NATO places nuclear weapons in Poland on
December 21.306 Lukashenko said he would not exclude offering to host Russian nuclear
weapons in Belarus if NATO deploys nuclear weapons to Eastern Europe on November 30. 307
Lukashenko implied that Belarus is ready to resume hosting Russian nuclear infrastructure –
as it did during the Soviet era – if NATO deploys nuclear missile structures to Eastern
Europe.308 The Kremlin had not previously engaged with Lukashenko’s statement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave an interview on December 21 in

which he reiterated that continued NATO expansion eastward crosses Russia’s
“red line.”309
The Russian Foreign Ministry published a draft of its “security guarantees”

demands to the US and NATO on December 17.310 The draft document calls on the
United States and Russia to not conduct activities which “affect the security” of either party; to
not use the territory of other states to prepare an attack against either party or conduct activity
that affects the “fundamental security interests” of either party; to rule out any NATO eastward
expansion; to refuse to admit former Soviet states into NATO or establish NATO military bases
on the territory of former Soviet States; to rule out NATO developing bilateral military
cooperation with former Soviet states; to refrain from any military deployments that either
party could perceive as a national security threat; to refrain from flying heavy bombers
equipped for nuclear or non-nuclear weapons outside of national airspace or locating surface
warships outside of national territorial waters; to not deploy ground-based intermediate and
shorter-range missiles outside Russian or US national territory, as well as in areas of their
national territory from which such weapons are capable of hitting targets on the national
territory of the other party; to exclude the deployment of nuclear weapons outside of national
territory and return nuclear weapons already deployed outside national territory back to
national territory; to eliminate all existing infrastructure for the deployment of nuclear
weapons outside national territory; to not train military personnel and civilians from non-
nuclear-weapon countries to use nuclear weapons; to not conduct exercises and general
purpose trainings with non-nuclear-weapon states that include the development of scenarios
with the use of nuclear weapons. This is clearest and most expansive list of Russian demands
of the US and NATO that the Kremlin has articulated as of December 22.
Nord Stream AG – the consortium for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline – began filling
the Nord Stream 2 pipeline with natural gas despite German and European Union
objections on December 17.311 Germany and the EU have not given regulatory approval to
Nord Stream 2 yet likely in part due to Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko on December 21 said that

Russia is willing to hold a Russia-NATO Council meeting if NATO will consider
the Kremlin’s security guarantees that it articulated on December 17.312
Brigade-sized elements of the Southern Military District and likely of the 49th
Combined Arms Army conducted combined-arms combat exercises at the Nikolo-
Alexandrovksy Training Ground in Stavropol, Russia, on December 16.313 Over
3,000 servicemen and 500 armored vehicles participated in the exercise which emphasized
tactical coordination between motorized rifle squads. Motorized rifle elements participated in
simulated firefights against enemy armored vehicles.

Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov explained a draft document on the
Kremlin’s security demands on “security guarantees” to American National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on December 16.314 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
stated this action confirms Russia’s readiness to begin negotiations with the United States on
security guarantees. Peskov also stated that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov
is ready to begin negotiations. This statement follows a phone call between Sullivan and
Ushakov on December 15. The Kremlin later publicly released a draft agreement on December
17.
S-400 anti-aircraft missile system crews conducted air defense exercises in

Crimea on December 15.315 Military personnel practiced measures to launch missiles at
simulated enemy targets. Su-24M bombers acted as the simulated enemy.
Elements of Russia’s 106th VDV Division conducted training at

the Tesnitskoye training ground in the vicinity of Tula on December 15.316 The
servicemen practiced conducting fire missions amidst a hostile air attack using the Strelets
intelligence command and control complex. The officers of the 106th tested their servicemen’s
ability to independently prioritize targets according to their importance to the mission. The
106th Division is based south of Moscow and could support a Russian VDV deployment into
Belarus, which ISW has previously forecasted is highly likely.
Elements of the Russian 106th VDV Division conducted training at the

Tesnitskoye Training Ground in Tula on December 14.317 The servicemen practiced
conducting fire missions amidst a hostile air attack. The servicemen used the Strelets
intelligence command and control complex to quickly strike a reconned position. The officers
of the 106th tested their servicemen’s ability to independently prioritize targets according to
their importance to the mission. Elements of the 106th Division have continued holding
command and control exercises through December 21.318
Independent Russian polling agency Levada released the results of a poll of

Russian public opinion on the Ukraine crisis on December 14.319 The poll asked
several questions about “the recent exacerbation of the situation in eastern Ukraine” and the
likelihood of war. Only 4% of respondents believed Russia is responsible, while 50% blamed
NATO, 16% Ukraine, and 3% the DNR/LNR. 75% do not exclude the possibility of a
Russia/Ukraine war. Of those 75%, 3% think war is inevitable, 36% highly likely, 38% the least
likely but possible outcome, and 15% think it is impossible.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed the G7's joint
statement on Russia/Ukraine demonstrated the G7’s inability to take
responsibility for its own mistakes on December 12.320 Zakharova blamed the G7 for
meddling in Ukraine’s internal affairs and causing a split in Ukrainian society. She claimed
further negotiations must occur between “Ukraine and Ukraine,” not Ukraine and Russia. The
Kremlin did not issue any other official response to the joint G7 statement.
Russian military hardware is likely moving in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, Russia
as of December 12.321 OSINT Twitter accounts The Lookout, ELINT News, and Kyle Glen
reported the movements of Russian military hardware roughly 100km from the Russo-
Ukrainian border. These OSINT accounts assessed that these movements occurred between
December 7 and December 14 based on the weather. The Lookout assessed that some of the
moving hardware in Kursk are likely components of the Russian 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade

or the 6th Combined Arms Army arriving to the Russo-Ukrainian border. The Russian
hardware includes tanks and logistics convoys with fuel tankers.
The 1st Tank Army is likely establishing an assembly area in Voronezh, Russia.
Russian authorities on December 11 issued a Notice to Airman (NOTAM) covering the
Pogonovo Training Ground in Voronezh from December 16-22.322 The Russian Ministry of
Defense stated on December 9 that unspecified tank units (approximately 200 personnel) of
the Western Military District conducted live fire training with battalion-sized artillery elements
at the Pogonovo and Krintsa training grounds in Voronezh.323 Russian social media users
observed approximately two battalions of T-80 and T-72 tanks in Maslovka, Voronezh on
December 8-11.324 Social media users observed Buk air defense systems, likely from the 49th
Air Defense Brigade of the 1st Tank Army, at railheads in Voronezh on December 8.325 Social
media users observed T-80s, likely of the 4th Tank Division and equipment of the 2nd Tank
Division, in Maslovka, Voronezh, in mid-November.326 The likely deployment of elements of
two divisions and air defense units of the 1st Tank Army indicates significant elements of the
army deploying to Voronezh. The deployment of the 1st Tank Army to Voronezh, as opposed to
Belarus, indicates that the MDCOA of a mechanized drive to Kyiv from Belarus is less likely.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on December 11 that over 1,500
Southern Military District (SMD) personnel participated in tank fire and
maneuver exercises in unspecified training grounds in Crimea, Volgograd,
Rostov, Adygea, Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Karachay-Cherkessia,
Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.327 The MoD claims these exercises occurred over
a five-day period. The MoD stated that the SMD will continue combat coordination activity
through February 2022.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reiterated its red line demand for
legal guarantees that NATO will not expand eastward on December 10. 328 The MFA
stated it seeks “serious long-term legal guarantees” that would “exclude NATO’s further
advancement to the east and deployment of weapons on Russia’s western borders which are a
threat to Russia.” The MFA demanded NATO “officially disavow” the 2008 NATO Bucharest
summit decision on Ukraine and Georgia’s potential membership in NATO. The Russian
Foreign Ministry said this explicit restatement and clarification was necessary because
“numerous loose interpretations of our position have emerged in recent days.” The MFA
accused NATO of pushing Ukraine towards aggression as opposed to “reining in” Kyiv. The
MFA urged Washington to return to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The MFA
announced that the Kremlin is drafting formal guarantees proposals in preparation for the next
round of strategic US-Russia talks.
The Ukrainian Navy reported that Russian forces blocked 70 percent of the Sea of
Azov on December 10. The Ukrainian Navy claims that the Kremlin issued navigation
warnings to restrict movement in large areas of the Sea of Azov in order to prepare for Russian
artillery fire against Ukrainian positions near Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Henichesk.329 Russia
has not conducted such artillery attacks as of December 11.
Russia staged a provocation against an old Ukrainian naval transport in the

Kerch Strait on December 9. Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) coast guard ships
staged a provocation in the Kerch Strait against a 1969 Ukrainian navy transport that was
training in the Sea of Azov on December 9.330 The Ukrainian transport departed Ukraine’s
naval base in Mariupol and went south for training. Russian FSB ships demanded the
Ukrainian transport not cross the Kerch Strait. The Ukrainian vessel stated it never had

intention to do so and eventually returned to Mariupol without an interception. The Russian
Foreign Ministry cited this incident and accused Ukraine of creating “a new provocation.” 331
The Russian Black Sea Fleet conducted artillery firing exercises from the new
patrol ship Sergey Kotov in the Black Sea and from Novorossiysk naval base on
December 8.332 The crew fired AK-176 artillery mount large-caliber naval machine guns and
DP-65 anti-sabotage grenade launcher systems.
Company-sized sapper elements (over 200 servicemen) of the Russian Black Sea
Fleet conducted engineering support exercises in Crimea on December 8.333
Servicemen camouflaged berths, supplied vessels with power, and provided bases with
drinking water under simulated enemy reconnaissance.
Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) may be building a new base near
Ukraine or Belarus. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that unspecified platoon
commanders of the WMD began conducting training exercises at the WMD’s 31st Training
Ground on December 7.334 It is unclear where the 31st Training Ground is located or how long
it has existed. The Russian Ministry of Defense publicly mentioned the 31st Training Ground
for the first time on November 24, 2021, and announced its intent to build 72 buildings and
structures on the grounds.335 The 31st Training Ground could be a new Russian base near
Ukraine or Belarus to support Russian military activities in either country, though ISW has no
evidence for that hypothesis.
Two large landing ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet loaded naval infantry for
amphibious assault exercises at the Opuk Training Ground in Crimea on
December 7.336 The Caesar Kunikov and Novocherkassk large landing ships of the Black Sea
fleet onboarded an unspecified number of naval infantry at an unspecified location for future
exercises at Opuk on an unspecified future date.
Over 300 naval infantry of the Caspian Flotilla conducted exercises with Southern
Military District (SMD) air support at the Adanak Training Ground in Dagestan
on December 7.337 Caspian Flotilla naval infantry defended a beach from simulated
amphibious assault with Mi-28 helicopter air support from the SMD’s 4th Air and Air Defense
Army. This was the first roughly battalion-sized Caspian Flotilla naval infantry exercise since
the Russian military buildup near Ukraine resumed in October 2021.
Peskov stated that NATO military deployments to Ukraine would “force” Russia
to protect its interests on December 6.338 Peskov condemned the US and NATO for not
recognizing Russia’s “red lines” and suggested Russia will act unless the West respects Kremlin
red lines.
Over 300 senior officers of the Southern Military District (SMD), including
regimental commanders, began training for multi-domain operations with
missile and air strikes on December 6.339 SMD Commander Alexander Dvornikov is
presiding over videoconference training with SMD commanders down to the regimental level.
The training includes conducting complex multi-domain operations to conduct air and missile
strikes in multiple operational directions.
Lavrov said Russia “must force” Ukraine to work within the Minsk Agreements
framework on December 5.340 Lavrov stated that Ukraine will not implement any
agreements on its own. Lavrov added that Berlin and Paris are slacking on their commitments
to hold Ukraine accountable under the Normandy Format.341

The Kremlin granted United Russia Party membership to LNR leader Leonid
Pasechnik and DNR leader Denis Pushilin on November 30 and December 4,
respectively.342 The Kremlin will likely use Pushilin and Pasechnik’s now-official position in
the Kremlin’s ruling party to advance Russian information operations about protecting
“Russian citizens” in Donbas.
More than 500 marines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet began conducting military
exercises in unspecified Crimean training grounds on December 3.343 Black Sea
Fleet naval infantry practiced defending equipment transports and neutralizing enemy
reconnaissance groups while deploying to Crimean training grounds. This mobilization does
not constitute mobilization at scale but is significant as the Black Sea Fleet naval infantry’s first
public battalion-sized mobilization since the crisis began in October 2021.
Over 700 Russian servicemen, likely of the 20th Combined Arms Army, began
conducting tactical sniper and reconnaissance exercises in Voronezh, Belgorod,
Bryansk, and Smolensk on December 2.344 The exercises emphasize reconnaissance,
sniper, and counter-sniper tasks. Embedded regular Russian snipers and Russian-trained
proxy militia snipers are a leading cause of Ukrainian causalities in Donbas.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on December 2 that it

arrested an alleged Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) operative that
Ukrainian officials instructed to conduct a “terrorist attack” with improvised
explosive devices on Russian soil.345 Intensified Russian information operations about
alleged Ukrainian attacks against Russian soil would indicate an effort to set information
conditions to support Russian military operations against Ukraine. The Kremlin has not
pushed this narrative as of December 3.
Ukraine’s GUR reported on December 3 that Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army
began new operational and combat training exercises and preparations for
forward artillery in occupied Donbas on December 1.346 The GUR claims these
exercises seek to raise the combat readiness of units of the DNR and LNR. The GUR claims
that Russian-controlled forces in the DNR and LNR are rotating units to forward positions and
preparing indirect fire assets to attack Ukrainian positions. The DNR and LNR have not yet
mobilized at scale as of December 3.
Lavrov called on the OSCE Ministerial Council to formulate “long-term, legally

binding security guarantees” against NATO expansion on December 2.347 Lavrov
repeated Putin’s “red lines” from December 1 speech.348 Lavrov said that Russia will make
concrete proposals soon, counting on Western “serious consideration, in essence and without
excuses.” Lavrov demanded that OSCE participate in regulating conflicts, specifically by
sending a harsh signal to Kyiv to implement the Minsk Agreements. Lavrov said the Ukrainian
crisis cannot be resolved without direct dialogue between Ukraine and the DNR and LNR, and
by granting the proxies special status in Ukraine’s constitution. The Kremlin likely seeks to
permanently integrate DNR and LNR into Ukraine as Russian-controlled proxies.349
Putin clearly articulated his red lines on halting NATO’s eastern expansion for the
first time on December 1. Putin stated he insists on “legal guarantees” that NATO will not
expand further eastward towards Russia at a ceremony to present foreign ambassadors their
credentials on December 1.350 Putin also referenced his previous November 18 session with
Lavrov in which Putin claimed the West is not respecting Russian red lines.351 Putin’s

statement was exceptionally clear and unusual; Putin does not normally articulate Russian
policy objectives so clearly in open settings. Putin seeks to impose a revisionist world order in
which states in Russia’s claimed sphere of influence have truncated sovereignty. The Kremlin
may decide to conduct military operations against Ukraine if Western leaders and Zelensky
reject these demands.
The Permanent Council of the CSTO expressed “great concern” over NATO’s
military activity near Russian borders on December 1.352 The Kremlin-dominated
CSTO accused NATO of violating the 1936 Montreux Convention which forbids the transit of
non-Black Sea states’ warships with large military equipment. The CSTO is likely establishing
information conditions in former Soviet states about NATO’s disregard of Russian borders to
support Putin’s stated red lines.
Lavrov said that Russia will “harshly react” to any maneuvers on Russia’s western
borders on December 1.353 Lavrov encouraged the West to consider Lukashenko’s
November 30 statement of his openness to host Russian nuclear missiles as a warning. 354
Lavrov’s statement indicates an increased likelihood of a permanent Russian military
deployment to Belarus. Lavrov said NATO’s effort to add Ukraine to its “anti-Russia” orbit
“severely complicates” the situation in Donbas. Lavrov accused NATO of supplying Ukraine
with weapons illegal under the Minsk Agreements and of collaborating with the US to incite
land, air, and sea-based provocations near Russian borders. Lavrov emphasized Russia’s
readiness to suppress diplomatic initiatives in the United Nations that are beneficial to the
West.
The Russian Ministry of Defense on December 1 acknowledged large military

movements in the Southern Military District (SMD) for the first time since the
crisis began. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that over 10,000 SMD personnel
organized in battalion tactical groups (BTG) began deploying to unspecified training grounds
in the SMD for exercises.355 Multiple BTGs of the Russian 58th CAA and 8th CAA are likely
mobilized in Crimea and Rostov, respectively.356 This is the first time the Kremlin
acknowledged large SMD mobilization since the Russian buildup against Ukraine began in
October 2021. This acknowledgement is likely intended as a signal to Ukraine and NATO given
Putin’s simultaneous articulation of a red lines for the West on NATO expansion on December
1.357
The Critical Intelligence Team (CIT) OSINT group claims it spotted more
elements of the Russian 41st CAA deploying from Siberia to western Russia on
December 1.358 CIT claims it found video depicting trucks of the Tuva-based 55th Motorized
Rifle Brigade deploying westward via rail. CIT argues these deployments are likely to Yelnya
where other elements of the 41st CAA are deployed near the border with Belarus.359
Putin defined NATO deployments of “shock weapon systems” to Ukraine as one

Kremlin “red line” on November 30.360 Putin said if Ukraine receives cruise and
hypersonic missiles, Russia will respond in minutes. Putin stated that “there are repeated
threats of new [Ukrainian] military formations” near the LNR and DNR and reiterated Russia’s
concern over NATO strategic aviation in the Black Sea. Putin had not previously publicly
defined any Kremlin red line in Ukraine. Putin may articulate more red lines as Russia
increases military pressure against Ukraine over winter 2021-2022.
The Kremlin officially initiated a first batch of 100 Donbas residents into Putin’s
ruling United Russia party on November 30.361 Putin’s ruling United Russia Party

announced on November 2 that Russian passport-holders in the LNR and DNR will be able to
join the party.362 The Kremlin will likely increasingly leverage information operations claiming
to defend Russians in Donbas.
Zakharova said Russia will continue its humanitarian assistance for “Russian
citizens” in Donbas on November 29.363 Zakharova accused the European Union (EU) of
considering sending military equipment to Ukraine instead of humanitarian aid to Donbas.
The Kremlin will likely intensify military shipments to Donbas falsely presented as
“humanitarian aid convoys” in winter 2021-2022.
Peskov stated on November 28 that the Kremlin hopes Putin and Biden will have
a video conference before the end of 2021. Peskov stated that there is no exact date for
such a call.364
Military equipment parked in Crimea since April 2021 is on the move to an

unknown location as of November 27. Previously visible Russian military equipment at
the Opuk Training Ground in Crimea disappeared from satellite monitoring visibility on
November 26-27, indicating redeployment elsewhere.365 Motorized rifle and artillery elements,
many from the 58th CAA, deployed to Opuk in April 2021.366 It is unclear where the equipment
is going as of November 29.
The Kremlin’s political objectives for Donbas likely have not changed as of
November 26. Zakharova reiterated the Kremlin’s historically consistent political objectives
for a settlement in Donbas on November 26.367 Zakharova stated, “there is no alternative to an
exclusively peaceful settlement, a direct dialogue between Kyiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk as
parties to the conflict, and a strict sequence of steps, according to which the restoration of
control of the Ukrainian authorities over the border with Russia takes the last place after the
granting of a special status to Donbas, the implementation of an amnesty, and the lifting of the
economic blockade. And holding local elections.” Zakharova said the “main negotiating format”
is the Trilateral Contact Group (Kyiv, OSCE, and LNR/DNR), and that the Normandy Format’s
purpose is to monitor the implementation of the Minsk Agreements. She also condemned the
foreign ministries of Germany and France for “groundlessly” accusing Russia of refusing to
participate in the Normandy Format on November 25.
Russia sent a “humanitarian aid” convoy to the DNR on November 25. The convoy
arrived in the DNR on November 25 and is Russia’s 104th so-called humanitarian convoy to
Donbas to date.368 Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry claimed the convoy caried more
than 92 tons of medicine and medical equipment369; the convoy likely carried weapons and
ammunition given documented past Russian weapon shipments to Donbas under the guise of
“humanitarian aid convoys.”
Russian authorities increased border security in Voronezh Oblast on November

22. The FSB announced on November 22 that Russian border guards deployed 24-hour border
patrols and stricter checkpoints on a 56-kilometer stretch between Boguchar and
Kantemirovka in Voronezh Oblast, Russia, on the Russian border with Ukraine.370 Russia’s 3rd
Motorized Rifle Division is based in Boguchar. This increased border security supports Russian
efforts to conceal Russian deployments closer to Ukraine in Voronezh.
Russian Proxy Activity

The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) claimed that Ukrainian forces deployed six
heavy weapon systems near three villages in Ukrainian government-controlled
Donetsk on January 13.371 The DNR claimed that Ukrainian forces deployed a 9K33 “Osa”
air defense system to Andriyvka, Donetsk, a BM-21 “Grad” multiple launch rocket system and
three 152mm self-propelled howitzers to Mangush, Donetsk, and a S-300 air defense system to
Volodarske, Donetsk.
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) accused Ukrainian forces of shooting an

Organization for Security and Cooperation Special Monitoring Mission (OSCE
SMM) observation drone with small arms near Ukrainian government-controlled
Chermalyk Village, Donetsk Oblast, on January 13.372
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) accused Ukrainian forces of firing 82mm
mortars at Horlivka, Donetsk, on January 10.373
The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) accused Ukrainian forces of deploying

armored vehicles near the villages of Popasnaya, Zolote and Vrubovka on
January 7.374 The LNR accused Ukrainian forces of deploying four MT-LB armored
personnel carriers and four armored combat vehicles near Popasna, Luhansk, three MT-LB
armored personnel carriers near Vrubovka, and two BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles near
Zolote.375 Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade operates in this vicinity.
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) accused Ukraine’s 36th Naval Infantry
Brigade of conducting aerial reconnaissance near Shirokino and Pavlopol,
Donetsk, on January 3.376 The DNR said Ukraine’s reconnaissance of these areas could be a
Ukrainian armed provocation to accuse the DNR of violating the ceasefire.
Luhansk Peoples Republic (LNR) police accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of
firing over 4,300 rounds of ammunition against Luhansk and violating the
ceasefire 534 times in 2021 during a briefing on December 31.377 LNR police claimed
that the Ukrainian military fired 155 artillery shells and planted 635 mines in Luhansk. LNR
police reported that ceasefire violations intensified after the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU)
detained LNR Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire Regime
representative Andrei Kosyak on October 13. The LNR previously claimed that the SBU
detained Kosyak to destabilize the situation in Donbas in October 2021 after the SBU reported
that Kosyak, a Russian citizen, conducted a reconnaissance operation on Ukrainian Armed
Forces positions.378 LNR and Kremlin-sponsored media may resurface old news about
Kosyak’s detention to establish an alleged starting point for Ukrainian offensive activity against
Donbas.
Luhansk Peoples Republic (LNR) police on January 2 accused “Ukrainian

nationalist militants” of setting up a headquarters in a seized school in Valuyvsk
village, Luhansk, on December 27.379 LNR police claimed that Ukrainian militants use
the school to host a “tactical combat unit of nationalists” and establish firing positions. LNR
police said they observed Ukrainian vehicles with armed personnel, artillery reconnaissance,
target designators, and radio stations near the school. The report reiterated that Ukrainian
attacks intensified after Ukrainian Security Service detained Russian reconnaissance officer
Andrei Kosyak in October 2021.380
The Luhansk People’s Republic Militia accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of
kidnapping an LNR security officer near the contact line in Donbas on December

29.381 LNR representative Ivan Filiponenko claimed traces of struggle and blood were found at
the site of the officer’s disappearance and accused the Ukrainian military of torturing the
captured officer to “justify the criminal actions of Ukrainian militants.”
The Donetsk People Republic militia claimed on December 22 that the US shipped
botulinum toxin to Mariupol and then Kharkiv in November 2021.382 The Donetsk
People Republic militia also accused the US private military contractors of preparing firing
points near the front line in Donbas. These claims support Russian Defense Minister Shoigu’s
claim on December 21 that the US private military contractors brought chemical warfare
agents to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on December 21 that the

Russian proxy forces in Donbas intensified engineering work to improve the
fortification of equipment in advanced positions by mining frontline positions
and masking false forward positions.383
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on December 20 that

approximately 600-800 Russian military officers are permanently embedded in
the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republic militias.384 The GUR stated that the
Kremlin conducted an officer rotation in October and November 2021 resulting with a new
Russian proxy army corps commander and new brigade-level commanders.
The People’s Militia of the Luhansk Republic (LNR) reported that Ukrainian
Armed Forces deployed additional armor and artillery to the front line in Donbas
on December 16.385 The LNR said that Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed a Strela-10 anti-
aircraft missile system, four T-72 tanks to the Novookhtyrka, Luhansk, and three T-72 tanks to
the Severodonetsk, Luhansk. Ukraine’s 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade operates in the vicinity of
these locations.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Main Intelligence Directorate reported on

December 14 that Russia’s 1st and 2nd Corps in Donetsk and Luhansk began new
training exercises on December 13.386 The GUR stated Russian Armed Forces
commanders oversaw a combat readiness check of motorized, artillery, and tank units from
December 6-10. The report stated the 1st and 2nd Corps began high intensity readiness
exercises, particularly practicing meetings with unit commanders and specialized training for
snipers.
Representatives from the DNR, LNR, South Ossetia, and the Russian government
met in Donetsk to discuss prospects for deepened economic integration on
December 14.387 Representatives from the Russian regions of occupied Crimea, Karelia,
Volgograd, Penza, and North Ossetia attended the meeting. The DNR, LNR, and Russian
Federation signed several cooperation agreements to promote agricultural, industrial, and
infrastructure cooperation. The Kremlin seeks to increase economic ties between its proxies
and neighboring Russian regions.
DNR leader Pushilin said during a December 5 interview that the DNR may unify
with the LNR in the future.388 Pushilin said the DNR and LNR cannot unify at this time
because the unification would allow Ukraine to undermine the Minsk Agreements. Pushilin
stated that Ukrainian government-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk are awaiting the “arrival of
the Russian world” and implied that DNR seeks to occupy the entire Donetsk Oblast.389
Pushilin also reiterated Kremlin statements about Ukrainian militarization and deployments to

Donbas.390 Pushilin announced that over 350,000 DNR residents received Russian
passports.391
DNR leader Pushilin said on November 30 that he wants to hold a referendum in

the DNR, but did not specify on what issues.392 Pushilin said the DNR proposed a
referendum to the members of the United Nations Security Council—likely Russia—in a
November 30 interview. Pushilin likely seeks to hold a referendum to unify the DNR with
Russia. The DNR has long sought full integration with Russia—an objective the Kremlin
historically has not supported. The Kremlin likely seeks to reintegrate the DNR and LNR into
Ukraine as Russian-controlled proxies.393 The Kremlin could leverage Pushilin’s statements
about a referendum to advance Russia’s own information operations to support a Russian
military operation in Donbas, however.
United Kingdom
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that any further Russian military
incursion into Ukraine would bring "massive consequences” and coordinated
sanctions to impose a “severe cost on Russia's interests and economy" on January
6.394
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss spoke with Ukrainian Foreign Minister
Dmytro Kuleba on January 4.395 The ministers coordinated their respective states’
positions ahead of planned NATO, European Union (EU), and Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) talks with Russia on January 9-13. Truss reiterated the UK’s
support for Ukraine and briefed Kuleba on UK consultations with the EU on new sanctions to
deter Russia from further aggression.
Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov and UK Chief of the Defense
Staff Tony Radakin had a phone call on December 23. The Russian Ministry of Defense
stated they discussed issues of global and regional security, likely focused on Ukraine.396
Russian President Vladimir Putin and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a
phone call on December 13.397 The Kremlin readout stated Putin “outlined in detail” his
assessments of the current situation around Ukraine in response to Johnson’s concern about
the “alleged large-scale movement of Russian troops.” Putin presented “specific examples” of
Kyiv’s violation of the Minsk agreements, exacerbation of the situation on the line of contact,
and discrimination against the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine. Putin announced “the
need to immediately begin negotiations in order to develop clear international legal
agreements that would exclude any further NATO advance to the east and the deployment of
weapons threatening Russia in neighboring states, primarily in Ukraine” and stated the
Russian side will present draft relevant documents. London’s readout expressed Johnson’s
“deep concern” over the Russian buildup, reiterated the important of working through
diplomatic channels, and emphasized the UK’s commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity
and sovereignty. However Johnson also “recognized the importance of dialogue on
international and regional security” – a possible concession to the Kremlin’s desire for a new
European security agreement – and agreed it is imperative “all sides respect the terms of the
Minsk protocol.”
The Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers met in Liverpool to discuss measures
against Russian aggression in Ukraine on December 11.398 The Ministers discussed
Russian aggression against Ukraine and global efforts to “present a united front against malign
behavior” by Russia and other actors. The Ministers discussed several non-Ukraine related
items including global development, JCPOA negotiations, and ongoing crises in Myanmar in
Ethiopia.
The G7 ministers released a joint statement on Russian aggression towards Ukraine on

December 12, the day after the meeting.399 The statement stated:
1. The G7 states are “united in our condemnation of Russia’s military build-up and aggressive
rhetoric towards Ukraine.”
2. Called on Russia to de-escalate, pursue diplomatic channels, and maintain transparency of
military activities – framing this request as a repeat of those articulated by President Biden
during his December 7 call with Putin. The G7 additionally reconfirmed its support for
France and Germany in the Normandy Four and called for full implementation of the Minsk
agreements.
3. Stated “Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine
would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.”
4. Reaffirmed the G7’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while
additionally stating “we commend Ukraine’s posture of restraint.”
5. Stated the G7 will “intensify our cooperation on our common and comprehensive
response.”
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss met with Lavrov on the sidelines of the OSCE
ministerial in Stockholm, Sweden, on December 2.400 Truss restated the UK’s support
for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and urged the Kremlin to deescalate. 401
Lavrov emphasized that the UK’s provocative rhetoric undermines efforts to restore
constructive dialogue on Ukraine.402
Truss met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on the sidelines of the
OSCE ministerial in Stockholm, Sweden, on December 2.403 The ministers exchanged
views on cooperation between Ukraine and the United Kingdom (UK) to strengthen security in
the Black Sea region. They agreed on the need to unite European states to prevent the launch of
Nord Stream 2.
The UK announced it established a security force assistance brigade and a NATO

holding area in Germany on November 25. The brigade has tanks and drone
elements.404 UK Lieutenant General Ralph Wooddisse stated, “we are putting a substantial
number of armored vehicles forward in order to be able to move more quickly should they be
required anywhere on the continental [European] landmass.”405 This is a reversal of the UK’s
permanent force presence withdrawal from Germany in late 2020.406
The UK and Ukraine signed a 1.7-billion pound loan agreement for the
development of the Ukrainian navy on November 12. The deal stipulates that the UK
will transfer two decommissioned UK Royal Navy minehunters to Ukraine, jointly produce
eight missile ships, deliver and retrofit weapons systems to existing Ukrainian vessels, produce
a Ukrainian frigate, and provide technical support for building Ukrainian naval
infrastructure.407
United States
US Permanent Representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation

in Europe (OSCE) Michael Carpenter rejected Russia’s security demands but
rearticulated calls for dialogue at the Russia-OSCE Meeting on January 13.408
Carpenter stated that the US would not tolerate “overt or tacit spheres of influence” or restrict
states’ right to join NATO if they so choose.409 Carpenter said the OSCE must “decisively reject
blackmail” and never allow “aggression and threats to be rewarded.”410 Carpenter encouraged a
dialogue on concerns over conventional military forces, enhancement of military transparency,
confidence building, and deconfliction. Carpenter told reporters following the meeting that the
West must prepare for the eventuality that Russia could escalate against Ukraine; Carpenter
said that “the drumbeat of war is sounding loud, and the [Russian] rhetoric has gotten rather
shrill.”411
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on January 13 that the Group of Seven
(G7), European Union, and NATO informed the Kremlin about “massive
consequences” if Russia invades Ukraine during US-Russia strategic stability and
Russia-NATO Council summits on January 10 and January 12, respectively.412
Blinken said that the West is drafting unprecedented and “very significant” sanctions against
Russia’s economic and financial sectors. Blinken added that the US and NATO are looking at
“shoring up even more the defenses of Ukraine if necessary.” Blinken stated that NATO will not
restrict its membership to eligible countries and urged Russia to engage in a dialogue with the
US, NATO, and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with French, German, Italian,
and UK representatives who participated in the NATO-Russia Council summit to
discuss potential sanctions against Russia in Brussels, Belgium, on January 12.413
The officials met after the summit’s conclusion and agreed to impose “massive consequences
and severe costs,” including “coordinated, restrictive economic measures" on Russia if Russia
invades unoccupied Ukraine.
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman discussed Russia’s military

buildup on Ukraine’s borders during a meeting with the Chief of Staff for the
European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, Belgium, on January
12.414 The meeting took place after the NATO-Russia Council summit.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken briefed new Czech Foreign Minister Jan
Lipavsky on US efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine on January 13.415
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with European External

Action Service Secretary-General Stefano Sannino in Brussels on January 12.416
The officials discussed a “united approach” to Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine’s borders.
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with officials from the
European Union’s Political and Security Committee in Brussels on January 11.417
Sherman briefed the European officials on the results of the January 9-10 US-Russia strategic
stability dialogue in Geneva and discussed Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine’s borders.
The US Department of State readout stated that this meeting underscored US commitment to
work closely with the European Union.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke

Hoekstra discussed Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine on January 11.418
Blinken reiterated US support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity
and stressed the US’s commitment to impose “significant costs” against Russia if Russia

escalates against Ukraine. This was Blinken and Hoekstra’s first call after Hoekstra was
appointed Dutch Foreign Minister on January 10.
US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland gave a briefing
on the US-Russia strategic stability talks on January 11.419 Nuland characterized the
January 9-10 talks in Geneva as “constructive and worth doing” and reiterated that the US
demonstrated commitment to diplomacy by proposing military and exercise transparency and
risk-reduction measures. Nuland stated that the US is interested in having “deeper
discussions” on arms control with Russia and that treaties about nuclear weaponry “can’t be
negotiated overnight.” Nuland stated the US has not observed Russian military de-escalation.
Nuland stated that Russia amassed 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders and prepared
internal sabotage, destabilization, and false flag operations for Ukraine. Nuland stated that
Russia now faces two options: “diplomacy and dialogue or instead … confrontation and the
massive consequences that that will bring.” Nuland stated that the US and its partners are
ready to impose “severe costs,” and unprecedented “massive economic measures” if the
Kremlin further invades or destabilizes Ukraine.
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman briefed NATO officials in Brussels

on January 11 on the results of the bilateral US-Russia strategic stability talks in
Geneva on January 9-10.420 Sherman stated that the US is committed to working closely
with NATO allies and partners to urge Russian de-escalation.421
CNN reported on January 11 that the Biden Administration secretly authorized an

additional $200 million in security assistance for Ukraine in late December
2021.422 CNN reported that four anonymous US government sources reported that the US
authorized small arms and ammunition, secure radios, medical equipment, spare parts, and
other equipment consistent with previous US security assistance to Ukraine. CNN reported
that the security assistance would likely not arrive in Ukraine quickly given that a previous $60
million aid delivery authorized in summer 2021 is only nearing delivery completion in winter
2022, though the US may rush the delivery to increase Ukrainian capabilities. Kremlin news
outlet Federal News Agency criticized CNN’s story on January 11, claiming that the US added
insult to injury by sending Ukraine weapons ahead US-Russia talks, where the US refused to
consider Russia’s security demands.423
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro

Kuleba discussed Ukrainian security on January 7.424 Blinken briefed Dmytro Kuleba
on the outcome of the January 7 NATO foreign ministerial and said that NATO members have
a position of solidarity with Ukraine ahead of talks with Russia on January 9-13. Both officials
coordinated their positions and reaffirmed that states cannot make decisions about Ukraine
without Ukrainian participation.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell
discussed Ukrainian security on January 8. Borrell briefed Blinken on his recent
assessment of the situation in Ukraine after visiting Ukraine and the Donbas frontline in early
January. The officials coordinated their positions ahead of talks with Russia on January 9-13
and agreed that that any further Russian military aggression against Ukraine will result in
“massive consequences” and a “severe response.”425
The Associated Press (AP) reported on January 9 that the Biden Administration
issued new warnings to Russia on January 8.426 AP reported that the US will impose
strict economic sanctions if Russia intervenes in Ukraine by targeting Russian entities,

financial institutions, and restricting US exports to Russia for technology and foreign-made
products under US jurisdiction. AP reported that anonymous US officials “flatly rejected”
Russian demands to end NATO expansion and remove US troops and weapons from Eastern
Europe. AP reported that US officials said that the US would not make any decisions without
the consent of Ukraine or NATO. AP reported that US officials said that the United States
would consider dialogue on reducing possible future “offensive missiles” (likely referring to
cruise missiles which could strike Russia) deployments to Ukraine and defining limits on
NATO exercises in Eastern Europe.
US State Department Spokesman Ned Price said that Senator Ted Cruz’s bill to
sanction Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline would “undermine unity” among
European allies on January 6.427 Cruz’s bill imposes sanctions against Nord Stream within
weeks of the bill’s adoption and allows Congress to vote to reinstate sanctions if the US
president waives them.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Russian Defense Minister

Sergey Shoigu about “risk reduction near Ukraine’s borders” on January 6.428
Both US and Russian readouts did not include any further details.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena

Baerbock met to discuss Ukraine in Washington on January 5.429 The officials
emphasized a preference to pursue diplomacy and de-escalation to deal with Russia’s force
buildup near Ukraine. Blinken stated that the US, Germany, NATO, the EU, and G7 have been
very clear that Russia will face “massive consequences” for renewed aggression against
Ukraine. Blinken suggested that Nord Stream 2 would not become operational if Russia renews
aggression against Ukraine. Baerbock stated Germany is already providing Ukraine with
military medical aid (as opposed to weapons), and Blinken stated the US will continue to
deliver equipment to Ukraine in coming months through a range of mechanisms.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called his counterparts from

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden to discuss transatlantic security
and Ukraine on January 4.430 The officials discussed their readiness to impose “severe
consequences” on Russia if it engages in further aggression against Ukraine. They also
underscored the importance of diplomacy to de-escalate the situation, including through the
US-Russia strategic stability dialogue, NATO-Russia Council, and OSCE meetings planned for
January 9-13. Participants reaffirmed the right of each country to choose its alliances.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had a phone call with the foreign ministers
of the Bucharest Nine (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia,
Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria) to reaffirm US commitments to transatlantic
security and NATO’s Article V on January 3.431 The ministers discussed Russia’s
military buildup near Ukraine, the need for a “united, ready, and resolute NATO stance for the
collective defense of Allies,” and de-escalation through deterrence, defense, and dialogue.
Blinken underscored US “unwavering commitment” to NATO’s Article V on collective defense.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had a phone call with Turkish Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on the Russian threat to Ukraine on January 3.432
Blinken and Cavusoglu discussed the importance of continued coordination regarding the
threat of Russian escalation in Ukraine and other topics.

US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call
on Ukraine on December 30. Both sides confirmed that the US and Russia will hold talks
on January 9 to 10 in Geneva, Russia-NATO Council talks in Brussels on January 12, and then
Russia-OSCE talks on January 13.433 The Kremlin said that “large-scale” US sanctions against
Russia in the event of an escalation against Ukraine would be a “grave mistake” that could lead
to a “complete fracture” of US-Russia relations. The US readout emphasized that Biden made
clear that the US and its allies will respond “decisively” if Russia further invades Ukraine.434
Biden reiterated that substantive progress in these dialogues can occur only in an environment
of de-escalation rather than escalation.
US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a

phone call on January 2.435 Biden stated that the US and its allies will “respond decisively”
if Russia further invades Ukraine and reaffirmed US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity. Zelensky thanked Biden for US support and discussed the steps Ukraine is
taking within the Minsk and Normandy Formats. Zelensky also thanked the US for supporting
a Ukrainian proposal to hold a NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting “in the coming days.”
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed having a “strong, united

response to further Russian aggression against Ukraine” with Canadian Foreign
Minister Melanie Joly on December 31.436 Blinken and Joly also discussed willingness
among NATO allies and partners to impose “massive consequences and severe costs on
Russia.”
US President Biden and Russian President Putin will hold a phone call at 3:30
EDT on December 30.437 Putin requested the call on December 29. The Kremlin stated the
call would discuss Russian security demands ahead of planned US-Russia talks in early
January.
Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke with US Secretary of State Blinken on

December 29 ahead of Biden-Putin call on December 30.438 Blinken reiterated the
United States’ support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Blinken and Zelensky
discussed upcoming diplomatic engagements with Russia and efforts to peacefully resolve the
conflict in eastern Ukraine.
The US Navy canceled a planned redeployment of the carrier USS Harry S

Truman and its battle group from the Mediterranean to the Middle East in
response to Russia’s buildup around Ukraine on December 28.439 US defense
officials stated the Harry S Truman and its five escorting warships (a cruiser, three US guided
missile destroyers, and a Norwegian frigate) would remain in the Mediterranean to reassure
US allies and partners in the region.
The US deployed unspecified elements of the 335th Fighter Squadron from

Seymour Johnson, North Carolina, to Campia Turzii, Romania, on December
15.440 At least two American F-15 fighter jets deployed. The jets conducted joint flights with
the Italian and Romanian Air Forces to protect NATO airspace in the Black Sea from December
18 to 22. Italian Eurofighters will further operate with Romanian aircraft in the Black Sea area
for the next three months (until March 2022). The mission of the 335th Fighter Squadron is to
be prepared to deploy anywhere in the world on short notice and deliver an array of air-to-
ground weapons with high accuracy.441

Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov and US Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley had a phone call on December 22. TASS reports
that the Russian Ministry of Defense stated they discussed “issues of international security.” 442
The Joint Chiefs of Staff readout states they discussed “regional security-related issues of
concern.”443 This was likely on Ukraine.
The New York Times reported on December 20 that the US and UK deployed
unspecified cyberwarfare experts to Ukraine to help prepare Ukraine against
potential planned Russian cyberattacks. The New York Times reported that Russia could
attack Ukraine’s power grid in early January 2022, potentially around or after Orthodox
Christmas on January 7.444
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi and US Joint

Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley discussed Russian aggression in a phone call
on December 15.445 This is the third phone call between Zaluzhnyi and Milley in less than a
month to discuss Russian aggression against Ukraine. Zaluzhnyi and Milley discussed
Ukraine’s strategic partnership with the US. Zaluzhnyi thanked Milley for the US’ continued
support for Ukrainian territorial sovereignty and commended the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic
Defense Framework established on November 10, 2021 that expanded Ukrainian-US
cooperation in Black Sea security, cyber defense, and intelligence sharing, and countering
Russia’s aggression. Zaluzhnyi stated that American experts have conducted assessment of
Ukrainian Air Defense capabilities following Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov’s visit to the
United States.
US Deputy Secretary of State Karen Donfried met Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs
Minister Sergei Ryabkov in Moscow on December 15.446 Ryabkov and Donfried
discussed Russia’s demanded security guarantees from the United States and NATO. The
Russian MFA only published a one-sentence readout and the US State Department has not
published a readout as of 1600 December 15.
The American guided-missile destroyer USS Arleigh Burke exited the Black Sea
on December 15.447 The Arleigh Burke conducted exercises with NATO partners in the Black
Sea from November 25 – December 14. The Arleigh Burke’s deployment placed NATO anti-air,
anti-submarine, and surface-to-surface capabilities in the Black Sea and prompted several false
Russian claims of NATO aggression.
US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen

Donfried met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv, Ukraine
on December 13.448 Donfried stated her agreement with the principle of “no decisions on
Ukraine without Ukraine” and reaffirmed the United States’ full support for Ukraine’s
territorial integrity and sovereignty. She stated the United States’ readiness to implement
comprehensive measures to deter Russia aggression against Ukraine. Kuleba emphasized the
need for political and diplomatic approaches to resolving Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict
and welcomed American assistance in de-escalatory efforts. The Ukrainian MFA’s readout
stated Kuleba suggested unspecified security and humanitarian courses of action Russia could
take to effectively implement the Minsk Agreements. No new inflections or theoretical changes
emerged from the meeting. Donfried will meet with Russian Deputy FM Ryabkov in Moscow
on December 15.
The US strategic RC-135W Rivet Joint Electronic Reconnaissance Aircraft plane

conducted a reconnaissance mission near Donbas on December 11.449 This is

reportedly the first time the Rivet Joint Electronic Reconnaissance Aircraft has operated inside
Ukrainian airspace.450 The Russian Defense Ministry stated it scrambled Su-27 fighters to
intercept French and US reconnaissance flights with CL-600 Artemis and RC-135
reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea on December 9.451
Biden called the heads of state of the Bucharest Nine (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria) to reaffirm US
commitments to transatlantic security and NATO’s Article V on December 10. 452
The leaders discussed the need for a NATO defensive stance against growing Russian
aggression in Ukraine.
Zelensky and Biden discussed the situation in Ukraine during a December 9

telephone call.453 Zelensky stressed Ukrainian readiness for extending the peace process in
various formats. Biden and Zelensky discussed ways to provide financial, security, and political
support to Ukraine in response to Russia’s ongoing aggression. Zelensky emphasized the
importance the Nord Stream 2 pipeline plays in deterring Russian aggression.
US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland testified to the US

Senate on December 7 that Russia deployed approximately 100 battalion tactical
groups (BTGs) near the Ukrainian border.454 Nuland added that Russia deployed forces
near eastern, northern, and southern Ukrainian borders in an interview following her
testimony at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.455 Nuland said Russian forces could
deploy to Belarus and “mask” themselves to appear as Belarusian forces.456 Nuland pointed out
that Lukashenko’s recognition of Russian occupation of Crimea is “particularly concerning”
given his previous leverage against Russian influence.
Biden and Putin held a videoconference about Ukraine on December 7. The

Kremlin readout accused Ukraine of attempting to completely dismantle the Minsk
Agreements and shirk its commitments from the Normandy Format meetings.457 Putin stated
that NATO seeks to “conquer Ukrainian territory” and deploy military forces near Russian
borders. Putin reiterated his demand to obtain “legally fixed guarantees excluding the
expansion of NATO in the eastern direction and the deployment of offensive strike weapons
systems in the states adjacent to Russia.” The Kremlin readout stated that the presidents
agreed to undertake “substantive consultations” on these issues. Biden stated that the US and
its allies would respond with “strong economic and other measures” in the event of a military
escalation against Ukraine.458 Biden reiterated his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy. Biden spoke with
French, German, Italian, and British leaders to brief them on his call with Putin.459
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called Zelensky on December 6.460 Zelensky

and Blinken discussed their respective positions ahead of Biden’s call with Putin on December
7. Zelensky and Blinken agreed on the importance of coordinating sanctions pressure against
Russia, restoring Ukraine’s full sovereignty and territorial integrity, and strengthening security
cooperation.
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley participated in a virtual

meeting with the NATO Military Committee to discuss “significant security
developments across Europe” on December 6.461
Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba discussed implementing

deterrence measures against Russia on the sidelines of the OSCE ministerial in

Stockholm, Sweden, on December 2. Blinken and Kuleba discussed the implementation
of deterrence measures against Russia including enhanced security and defense cooperation,
the preparation of “tough” economic sanctions in the event of intensified Russian aggression,
and political and diplomatic pressure against Russia.462 Blinken reiterated US commitments to
Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity and stressed the full implementation of the
Minsk Agreements.463
Blinken and Kuleba discussed implementing deterrence measures against Russia

on the sidelines of the OSCE ministerial in Stockholm, Sweden, on December 2.
Blinken and Kuleba discussed the implementation of deterrence measures against Russia
including enhanced security and defense cooperation, the preparation of “tough” economic
sanctions in the event of intensified Russian aggression, and political and diplomatic pressure
against Russia.464 Blinken reiterated US commitments to Ukraine’s independence and
territorial integrity and stressed the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements.465
Blinken met with Lavrov on the sidelines of the OSCE ministerial in Stockholm,
Sweden, on December 2. Blinken reiterated US calls for Russia to demobilize forces near
Ukraine, adhere to the Minsk Agreements, and observe the ceasefire in Donbas. Blinken stated
the United States and its allies are prepared to impose “significant costs” against Russia if it
escalates militarily.466 Lavrov warned that if the United States continues to ignore Russia's
“concerns,” it will result in “most serious consequences and will force [Russia] to take
retaliatory measures to straighten the military-strategic balance.”467 Lavrov restated desire to
establish a US-Russia dialogue in accordance with the agreements that Putin and Biden
reached at the June 2021 Geneva summit.
US Sixth Fleet announced that the USS Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyer
began deploying to the Black Sea “to operate with NATO allies and partners in the
region” on November 25.468 Missile ship Shuya of the Black Sea Fleet conducted an
exercise in response to the announcement of Arleigh Burke’s deployment.469
Ukraine’s navy received two refurbished former US Coast Guard patrol boats on
November 23.470
Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov and US Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley had a phone call on November 23. TASS reports
that the Russian Ministry of Defense stated they “discussed topical issues of international
security.”471 The Joint Chiefs of Staff readout states they discussed “several security-related
issues of concern.” The topic was likely Ukraine, given that Milley had a phone call with
Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny on November 22.472
The Biden Administration is reportedly considering sending military advisors

and weapons to Ukraine. CNN reported on November 22 that the Biden Administration is
considering sending Ukraine US military advisers and weapons (Javelins, stingers, Mi-17
helicopters, and mortars).473
The US imposed new sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on November
22. Blinken announced that the State Department submitted to Congress a list with two vessels
and one Russia-linked entity involved in the pipeline to be sanctioned.474
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met with Ukrainian Defense Minister
Oleksii Reznikov in Washington on November 18. The ministers agreed to work closely

together to advance the shared priorities outlined in the US-Ukraine Strategic Defense
Framework signed on August 31.475 Austin stated interest in deepening cooperation in Black
Sea security, cyber defense, and intelligence sharing.
Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr

Zelensky discussed Ukrainian security in a phone call on January 11.476 Zelensky
briefed Trudeau on the military situation in eastern Ukraine and near the Ukrainian border.
Zelensky stressed that Western states’ position in dialogue with Russia must remain “firm and
decisive” and that the West must be ready to immediately impose a “preventative sanctions
package” against Russia as a deterrent. Zelensky proposed updating the Joint Declaration on a
Special Partnership between Ukraine and Canada. Zelensky reiterated the importance that
states make no decisions about Ukraine without Ukrainian participation.
Reznikov met with Canadian Chief of the Defense Staff Wayne Eyre and called
Canadian National Defense Minister Anita Anand on December 3.477 Eyre met with
Reznikov during his official working visit to Kyiv aimed at developing cooperation between
Ukraine and Canada’s armed forces. Both parties discussed bilateral defense cooperation in
light of Russian security threats
France and Germany
Adviser to the German Chancellor for Foreign Affairs Jens Plotner, Diplomatic
Adviser to the President of France Emmanuel Bonn, and Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky discussed Normandy Format processes in Kyiv on January
11.478 Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to hold Normandy Format talks with the Russian,
French, and German heads of state. Zelensky also praised the Normandy Four’s progress to
implement the agreements from the last Normandy Format summit in Paris in December
2019. Zelensky stressed the need to comply with the ceasefire in Donbas, conduct mutual
prisoner exchanges with Russian proxy forces, and open checkpoints between Ukrainian and
Russian proxy forces. The Kremlin has not discussed holding a Normandy Format meeting
since the buildup began in October 2020 besides stating that the Kremlin is unlikely to offer
the US to participate in the format on December 7.479 Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said
that a Normandy Format summit “for the sake of a summit” do not make sense in September
2021.480
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated that Germany may block
Russia’s Nord Steam 2 gas pipeline due to Russian threats to Ukraine on
December 30.481 Habeck supported the German federal government’s decision to not
interfere with Nord Stream 2 certification processes and to consider the pipeline from a strictly
legal regulatory standpoint but did not exclude the possibility of Berlin blocking Nord Stream 2
due to Russian threats to Ukraine.
French and Ukrainian ships completed passing exercises in the northwestern
Black Sea on December 30.482 A Ukrainian medium landing ship and French frigate
Auvergne conducted passing exercises to improve interoperability between French and
Ukrainian naval personnel in accordance with NATO standards.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov met with France’s ambassador to

Russia on December 30.483 The Russian MFA reported they discussed Russia’s proposals
for legal security guarantees from the US and NATO.

The German Green Party’s foreign policy representative stated on December 30
that the German government will be unlikely to completely halt the launch of
Nord Stream 2 despite the Green Party’s disagreement.484 Omid Nuripur, the Green
Party’s appointed foreign policy expert, stated "unfortunately, fundamental political decisions
have already been made in recent years” and if the Nord Stream 2 operating company complies
with German law there will be no way to halt the launch of the pipeline “even if I still think that
the project is wrong.” Germany’s federal regulator suspended the certification process of Nord
Stream 2 on November 16, noting the process will resume when the Swiss-based Nord Stream
2 company creates a German subsidiary.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call with French President
Emmanuel Macron on December 21.485 Putin discussed Russian diplomatic work
regarding the Kremlin’s effort to extract its demanded security guarantees. Putin also accused
Kyiv of evading its obligations under the Minsk Accords, which Putin said hinders the
possibility of a new Normandy Format Summit. Macron and Putin also discussed Mali and
Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf
Scholz on December 21.486 Putin discussed Russia’s demanded security guarantees and
provided comments on the draft agreement that Russia gave the US. Putin also accused Kyiv of
evading its obligations under the Minsk Accords, which Putin said hinders the possibility of a
new Normandy Format Summit.
European leaders agreed to impose further sanctions on Russia if it invades

unoccupied Ukraine at a summit in Brussels, Belgium on December 16.487 The new
sanctions could include targeting Russian oligarchs, banning European Union (EU)
transactions with private Russian banks, and cutting off Russian banks from SWIFT – the
system required for international money transfers. The EU leaders stated their desire to
continue diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis and voiced their support for using the Normandy
Format to achieve full implementation of the Minsk Agreements.
The German Federal Network Agency reported that Nord Stream 2’s certification
should not be expected in the first half of 2022 on December 16.488 New German
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock – a member of the Green Party – said on October 20 that
she sees no reason to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Ukrainian President Zelensky met both individually and trilaterally with French
President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz in Brussels on December 15.489
Zelensky concentrated on energy issues in his meeting with Scholz, stating Ukraine counts on
Germany support to maintain gas transit through Ukraine after the expiration of Ukraine’s
current gas deal with Russia on 2024. Kyiv will likely attempt to secure assurances from the
new Germany government that the launch of Nord Stream 2 will not deprive Ukraine of
lucrative gas transit fees. Zelensky and Macron discussed Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations
and the implementation of unspecified joint economic projects. In the trilateral meeting, all
parties agreed on the need to continue the Normandy Format, called on Russia to resume
constructive work in that format, and seek diplomatic solutions to compel Russia to withdraw
its forces from the Ukrainian border.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron held
a phone call on December 14.490 The Kremlin readout stated Putin “outlined in detail” his

assessments of the current situation around Ukraine in response to Johnson’s concern about
the “alleged large-scale movement of Russian troops.” Putin presented “specific examples” of
Kyiv’s violation of the Minsk agreements, exacerbation of the situation on the line of contact,
and discrimination against the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine. Putin announced “the
weapons threatening Russia in neighboring states, primarily in Ukraine” and called on France
to participate in these discussions. The Kremlin readout further stated Macron raised the issue
of the Belarusian migrant crisis. Putin spoke favorably of direct discussions between the EU
and Minsk, drew attention to claimed violations of “international obligations” to help refugees
by Poland and the Baltic States, and expressed hope that the migrant issue “will be completely
removed from the agenda” in the near future.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a phone call with new German
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on December 14.491 Lavrov
welcomed Baerbock after her appointment on December 8. Lavrov told Baerbock that Russia
needs a security guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward by admitting Ukraine and
establish military infrastructure along Russian borders. Lavrov also asked Baerbock to
persuade Ukraine to adhere to the Minsk Agreements and participate in the Normandy
Format. Baerbock called for “open and honest” dialogue between Russia and Germany and
warned Russia would face “massive consequences” in the event of a Russian invasion of
unoccupied Ukraine.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Olekseii Reznikov blamed Germany for blocking

NATO supplies to Ukraine in an interview with the Financial Times on December
12.492 Reznikov stated Berlin vetoed Ukraine’s purchase of anti-drone rifles and anti-sniper
systems via the NATO Support and Procurement Agency within the last month, but later
relented on the anti-drone rifles after deeming them non-lethal. Reznikov stated “[Germany is]
still building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and at the same time blocking our defensive weapons.
It is very unfair.” Reznikov stated Ukraine will seek to purchase equipment bilaterally through
the US, UK, Lithuania and France rather than NATO. The Germany economic ministry
(responsible for arms sales) and Chancellery declined to comment on the policy, enacted by the
government of former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Reznikov stated the strategy of “not
provoking Russia” does not and will not work in the future but downplayed the imminent
threat. Reznikov stated Kyiv estimates Russia has 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border,
and stated US estimates of 175,000 troops are based on the size of encampments constructed
by Russian forces, though many tents remain empty.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated NordStream 2 will not be

allowed to operate in the event of any new “escalation” in Ukraine on December
12.493 Baerbock made the statements in an interview with German television station ZDF and
said Berlin and Washington agreed on this approach.
French officials issued forceful statements against a Russian offensive in Ukraine

in November. Shoigu and Lavrov attended the Russian-French Security Cooperation Council
meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Defense Minister Florence
Parly in Paris, France, on November 12.494 The Russian and French ministers reiterated the
necessity of compliance with the Minsk Agreements. The ministers discussed nuclear non-
proliferation and arms control, prevention of an arms race in outer space, Russia-EU and
Russia-NATO relations, and other topics. Le Drian and Parly warned the Kremlin of “serious
consequences related to any new harm to Ukraine’s territorial integrity” in a joint French

ministers’ statement.495 Le Drian gave an interview on November 21 in which he reiterated that
“Any [Russian] violation of the [Ukrainian] border, any intrusion would lead to extremely
grave consequences.”496
Germany temporarily suspended Nord Stream 2’s certification on November 16.

Germany's energy regulator suspended the process reportedly because a Swiss-based
consortium behind Nord Stream 2 needed to form a German subsidiary company under
German law to secure an operating license.497 The German energy regulator said it would not
continue its approval process until the Nord Stream 2 company, which is registered in
Switzerland, transfers its main assets and staffing budget to its German subsidiary. 498
French, German, and Ukrainian foreign ministers had a working meeting in

Brussels on November 15. France and Germany issued a joint statement in support of
Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.499 France and Germany called
on Ukraine to implement the Minsk Agreements and expressed regret that Lavrov has refused
to meet at the ministerial level for a Normandy Format meeting.
NATO/EU Activity
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said that the Baltic states and NATO are
discussing the possibility of increasing NATO military deployments to the Baltics
to deter Russian aggression in Europe on January 12.500 Reuters reported that
military deployments to the Baltic states could be discussed at a planned NATO defense
ministerial in mid-February.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO did not compromise its
core values and offered Russia further dialogue on arms control and non-
proliferation during the NATO-Russia summit on January 12.501 Stoltenberg said
NATO will not close membership opportunities for eligible states and will preserve each state’s
right to seek its own security arrangements. Stoltenberg said that NATO allies will not
withdraw forces from Eastern Europe. Stoltenberg stated that Russian representatives did not
accept nor reject NATO’s proposal for further dialogue on reciprocal missile limitations,
nuclear policies, military exercise transparency, and arms control. Stoltenberg said that NATO
warned Russia that any use of force against Ukraine will be a “serious strategic mistake”
resulting in economic and political sanctions, and a potential increased NATO force presence
in NATO’s “eastern part.” Stoltenberg reiterated that NATO would provide unspecified
practical defense support to Ukraine in case of further Russian military aggression.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on January 10 that European Union (EU)
Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said that the EU wants to join US-dominated
security talks with Russia and called on EU foreign ministers to develop their own
security guarantee proposals with Russia.502 The NYT reported that it obtained a letter
in which Borrel urged European foreign ministries to develop their own “separate European
proposals on security” and that he “initiated a discrete direct conversation” with Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The NYT reported that not every EU foreign ministry supports
Borrell’s approach, despite Borrell’s promise that European security proposals would be based
in “full coherence and coordination with NATO.” The NYT separately quoted Borrell saying,
“European Union is the most reliable partner of Ukraine,” and that the EU “cannot be a
spectator” while the United States, NATO, and Russia discuss European security. The Kremlin
will likely exploit growing fissures among EU and NATO member states, and fissures between
the EU and NATO as organizations.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia of "severe costs" if
Moscow launches a further attack on Ukraine on January 10.503 Stoltenberg said
NATO is working for a peaceful political solution, but that NATO members must be prepared if
Russia decides to conduct an offensive.
NATO’s foreign ministers held an extraordinary meeting on January 7 to

coordinate positions ahead of the January 12 NATO-Russia Council meeting.504
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated that NATO calls on Russia to de-escalate
and withdraw its forces from Ukraine. Stoltenberg said NATO is ready for “meaningful
dialogue” with Russia and that the January 12 NATO-Russia Council meeting will be an
opportunity for Russia to demonstrate it is “serious about dialogue, diplomacy, and its
international commitments.” Stoltenberg said that NATO will engage Russia in dialogue in
good faith, but that Russia must also be ready to listen to NATO members’ concerns about
Russian actions. Stoltenberg said NATO must also be prepared for the possibility that
diplomacy may fail and reiterated that NATO is prepared to protect its members.
Bloomberg Business assessed on January 4 that European natural gas reserves in

underground storage could decrease to 15 percent by March 2022.505 The current
level of natural gas reserves in underground storage is 56 percent, which is more than 15
percent below the current 10-year average. A decrease down to 15 percent would be the lowest
level of European gas reserves ever recorded.
European Union (EU) foreign policy chief Josep Borrell visited Ukraine to signal
EU support for Kyiv against Russian aggression on January 4.506 Borrell will meet
Ukraine’s foreign minister and other officials during his visit, which will last until January 6.
Borrell reportedly will also visit the front line in Donbas
Finish President Sauli Niinisto and Finish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that
Finland has the right to seek NATO membership on December 31 despite previous
Kremlin threats against Finish NATO membership.507 Niinisto and Marin gave
separate New Year’s Eve speeches in which they said that Finland has the right to seek NATO
membership if it decides to do so. The Kremlin stated that Finland and Sweden joining NATO
“would have serious military and political consequences that would require an adequate
response from the Russian side” on December 24.508
Chief EU diplomat Josep Borell stated the EU must be involved in any security
discussions between Russia and the US in an interview with German newspaper
Die Welt on December 29.509 Borell stated discussions between the US and Russia on
European security “only make sense... in close coordination with and with the participation of
the EU.” Borell asserted that NATO cannot negotiate on behalf of Europe, as several European
states are not members of NATO. Borell additionally said he will soon submit a proposal to EU
member states on creating an EU Military Advisory and Training Mission to Ukraine. The
Kremlin is highly unlikely to agree to involve the EU in security discussions. Disagreements
between NATO and the EU could impede a unified response to Russian pressure and
aggression.
TASS reported on December 26 that NATO confirmed it will convene a NATO-

Russia council meeting on security guarantees in Europe in Brussels on January
12.510 Russian media previously reported that Russia would hold high level talks with NATO
on security in Europe on January 12-13. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on December
24 that he hopes that NATO will provide the Kremlin clear answers on its demanded security
guarantees in January 2022.511
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe announced that

Ukraine and Russia’s proxies in eastern Ukraine reached a new ceasefire on
December 22.512 The ceasefire likely will not end the fighting in Donbas. The Russian
Foreign Ministry criticized Ukrainian officials’ statement that Ukraine seeks to comply with the
Minsk Accords on December 23, claiming that the Ukrainian military’s refusal to ban
Ukrainian field commanders from returning fire without permission from central leadership in
Kyiv undermines Ukraine’s commitment to peace.513 Kremlin proxy forces violated the
ceasefire at least six times on December 26.514
Sweden announced it increased its military readiness on December 23.515 Swedish

Commander-in-Chief Micael Byden stated that the increase was due to the situation in
Ukraine. Byden met with US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Millie on December
15.516
Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with European Union High

Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell about
responding to Russian aggression against Ukraine on December 22.517 Both the US
and European Union readouts emphasized the need for coordinated action to support
Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and reaffirmed that any further Russian military
aggression against Ukraine would have “massive consequences” for the Russian Federation.
German news outlet Welt reported on December 22 that unspecified element of

NATO’s very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) – a NATO rapid reaction
force of approximately 20,000 solders – increased its combat readiness.518
Unspecified VJTF elements reportedly increased its readiness from being ready to deploy to a
crisis area within five days instead of seven days. Leading VJTF elements are ready to deploy
within two to three days.519
The US, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada, Poland and several other EU
and NATO states issued a joint statement at the United Nations condemning
Russian behavior at the United Nations Security Council on December 22.520 The
statement condemned Russia’s misuse of claims of minority persecution in Donbas in a
Security Council Arria-formula meeting that Russia hosted on December 22. The statement
reiterated international support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, condemned
Russia’s disinformation campaign against Ukraine, and called on Russia to de-escalate the
situation and withdraw Russian forces and equipment it has stationed in Ukraine. The
statement also warned that any further military aggression against Ukraine would have
“massive consequences and a severe cost in response.”
NATO released a statement calling on Russia to deescalate aggression towards

Ukraine on December 16.521 NATO said that they are seriously assessing implications for
NATO security and will take measures through a collective defense strategy. NATO said that
they are ready for a dialogue with Russia and called on Russia to meet with the NATO-Russia
council. NATO mentioned that the OSCE is a relevant platform for reducing tensions and
strengthening confidence-building measures. NATO said that any further Russian aggression
towards Ukraine will have immense financial and security consequences. NATO reaffirmed its
support for Ukrainian sovereignty.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated that Russian aggression
against Ukraine or Georgia would “come at a high price” during a meeting with
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili at NATO Headquarters in Brussels,
Belgium on December 15.522 Stoltenberg stated NATO’s full support for Georgia’s
territorial integrity and called upon Russia to end its claims on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He
also stressed the need for continued vigilance in response to Russian military buildup near
Ukraine and in the Black Sea. Stoltenberg stated that Georgia and Ukraine have the right to
choose their own alliances without any interference from Russia and discussed NATO efforts to
strengthen Georgia’s defense capabilities with maritime support, joint exercises, and
information sharing. Stoltenberg stated “any future Russian aggression would come at a high
price and have serious political and economic consequences for Russia.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with European Council President

Charles Michel in Brussels, Belgium on December 15 ahead of a European Council
meeting scheduled for December 16.523 Zelensky emphasized the importance of pursuing
cooperation through the EU’s Eastern Partnership and reiterated that Ukraine seeks full
membership in the European Union. Michel and Zelensky expressed the need to continue joint
efforts to prevent an escalation along the borders of Ukraine. Zelensky expressed hope that EU
leaders will send “clear signals” to Russia following the European Council meeting on
December 16.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia has “no right to
interfere” in Ukraine’s sovereign decision to pursue NATO membership at the
Riga NATO meeting on November 30.524 Stoltenberg emphasized Ukraine is a sovereign
state and that the Kremlin has no right to dictate Ukraine’s policies. Stoltenberg said “any
future Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at high price,” and called on Russia to
de-escalate under threat of “serious political and economic consequences.”
Eastern and Central European Allies
Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said that Latvia intends to send
unspecified weapons to Ukraine on January 5.525 Pabriks said that Latvia will provide
both humanitarian and military assistance, including “weapons and equipment necessary for
defense” after meeting with Ukraine’s ambassador to Latvia.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas characterized January talks with Russia as
diplomatic dialogue and not negotiations on January 5.526 Kallas said that neither
NATO nor the West is “negotiating” with Russia and said the mid-January talks are “a dialogue
to maintain diplomatic communication.” Kallas also said that it is “not possible to negotiate”
Russia’s “absurd conditions.” Kremlin media criticized Kallas’ statement.527
Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics called on the European Union and
NATO to better prepare for Russian hybrid actions against Ukraine on January
5.528 Rinkevics said that Latvia intends to draw attention to the need for more active
preparation against Russian hybrid threats against Ukraine at the January 7 NATO foreign
ministerial and other meetings scheduled in January.
A senior Estonian defense official said Estonia is working on gaining US, Finish,
and German permission to transfer Ukraine more Javelin anti-tank missiles and
122mm howitzers on December 30.529 Peeter Kuimet, the Head of the International
Cooperation Department of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, said Estonia is working on

sending more aid to Ukraine, but that it must receive permissions from the United States to
export Javelins to Ukraine. Kuimet said that Finland and Germany must give Estonia
permission to transfer 122mm howitzers to Ukraine because the howitzers were previously
owned by Finland and Germany.
The US State Department approved a sale of Javelin anti-tank missiles to the

government of Lithuania for approximately $125 million on December 21.530 The
sale includes 341 FGM-148F Javelin missiles and 30 launchers, spares, and technical support.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Polish President Andrzej Duda, and

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda discussed trilateral security concerns at a
Lublin Triangle meeting on December 20.531 The heads of state made a joint statement
reaffirming the states’ commitment to expanding security, defense, and economic cooperation,
mutual support regarding the migrant crisis in Belarus, and condemning Russian aggression
and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.532
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö held a
phone call on December 14.533 The Kremlin readout stated Putin informed Niinisto of the
results of his call with US President Biden on December 7, Putin’s assessment of the situation
around Ukraine, and Kyiv’s claimed violation of the Minsk agreements. Putin announced “the
weapons threatening Russia in neighboring states, primarily in Ukraine.” Putin stressed that
“this is fully consistent with the principle of the indivisibility of security, enshrined in the 1975
Helsinki Final Act and the 1999 Istanbul Charter” and “expressed support for Sauli Niinistö's
initiative to organize a summit in 2025 to mark the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki
Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe.” The Finnish readout stated “the
Presidents had a thorough discussion on the situation at the borders of Ukraine. President
Niinistö expressed the grave concern on the tense situation and stressed the need to find a
diplomatic resolution to it.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Titov met jointly with ambassadors
from Austria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany, and
Switzerland on December 14.534 The Russian readout did not specify the topics of
conversation.
The Deputy Foreign Ministers of Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania (the “Lublin
Triangle”) signed a joint action plan for countering Russian disinformation in
Lutsk, Ukraine on December 11.535 Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Mykola Tochytsky,
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz, and Lithuanian Deputy Foreign Minister
Mantas Adomenas participated in the meeting. The three states created the “Lublin Triangle”
format on July 28, 2020 to support trilateral dialogue and “support Ukraine’s Eur-Atlantic
aspirations.”536 The Lublin Triangle is a non-binding discussion format similar to the Visegrad
Four or Bucharest Nine. The ministers discussed the Belarusian migrant crisis and Russian
military escalation near the Ukrainian border. They emphasized the need for coordination with
NATO and the European Union to counter hybrid threats and prevent Russian aggression
towards Ukraine. The ministers additionally signed a (non-public) Joint Action Plan for
Countering Disinformation in 2022-2023. The plan “provides for the preparation of regular
joint reports on information challenges and threats, the development of a joint response
mechanism to Russia's destabilization campaigns, the exchange of experience and the
strengthening of institutional capacity to counter hybrid threats.”

Ukraine, Lithuania, and Georgia signed a memorandum of understanding to
create a cybersecurity cooperation group on December 8.537 The joint group’s
mission is to develop multistate capabilities for cyber threat analysis by developing standard
procedures for tactical and operational-level information exchanges on cyber threats, security
vulnerabilities, and incident response.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov and Lithuanian Defense Minister

Arvidas Anushauskas discussed mutual Russian and Belarusian threats on
December 8.538 The ministers discussed the intensification of Russian-Belarusian military
cooperation and the concentration of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine. They also
discussed Belarusian migrant trafficking on the Lithuanian-Belarusian border and the possible
risks of Belarus moving a wave of migrants to the border with Ukraine.
Polish Air Force F-16 aircraft from Siauliai Air Base, Lithuania, conducted the
first Alpha Scramble training over the Baltic Sea to intercept a Russian IL-20
reconnaissance aircraft on December 8.539 The Polish detachment Orlik-10 practiced
intercepting an unknown aircraft visually resembling Russian IL-20 COOT A, which had failed
to submit a flight plan and communicate with air traffic control. The exercise is a component of
NATO’s Air Policing mission.
Kuleba met Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis on the sidelines

of the OSCE ministerial in Stockholm, Sweden on December 3.540 Kuleba and
Landsbergis discussed Russian military deployments near Ukraine and Belarus’ migrant
trafficking against Lithuania and Poland.
Zelensky, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, and Polish President Andrzej

Duda issued a joint statement reaffirming support for Ukraine’s EU and NATO
accession on December 2.541 Nausėda and Duda reiterated Lithuania’s and Poland’s
support for Ukraine joining the EU and NATO. The statement also asserted that Belarus
presents hybrid threats that impact all of European security and restated Polish and
Lithuanian readiness to jointly oppose Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Kuleba met with Estonian Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets on the sidelines of
the NATO ministerial meeting in Riga, Latvia on December 1. Kuleba informed
Liimets of the Russian military deployments near Ukraine and Liimets agreed to jointly oppose
Russian aggression in the Baltic-Black Sea region.542 Liimets reiterated Estonia’s support for
admitting Ukraine into the EU and NATO. Kuleba and Liimets also discussed further joint
defense cooperation and responses to hybrid threats.
The defense ministers of the Bucharest Nine (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland,
Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria) issued a statement calling
for the strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank "from the Baltic to Black Sea" on
November 25.543 They also said it was necessary to work on a new defense strategy within
NATO. US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks addressed the allies virtually and
“affirmed the U.S. commitment to NATO’s eastern flank and commented on recent Russian
activity around Ukraine, the migrant crisis on the Belarusian-EU border, and strategic
competition with the People’s Republic of China.”544 Hicks also underscored that EU defense
initiatives should remain coherent, mutually reinforcing, and interoperable with and available
to NATO.

Ukrainian Political Activity
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine’s Western partners

“fully supported” Kyiv against Russian aggression at the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Council meeting on
January 13.545 Kuleba said Ukraine and its partners will continue to “implement a
comprehensive strategy to deter Russia from a new wave of war.” Kuleba added that “despite
the unsatisfactory week of great diplomacy for Russia,” the Kremlin must continue dialogue
within OSCE framework.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed on January 11 that the

militias of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics began a week of combat
and mobilization readiness exercises in proxy-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk
on January 10.546 The readiness exercises include meetings with proxy reservists,
replenishing proxy units’ resources, and checking on deployed military equipment. The GUR
said that proxy forces’ administrative elements intensified internal searches for proxy
reservists who are evading reserve mobilization orders.
Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) announced on January 5 that it disrupted

59 attempted cyberattacks against Ukrainian government services in December
2021.547 The SBU said that attacks against command-and-control servers and unauthorized
access intrusion attacks were among the main cyber attack types for December 2021. The SBU
did not specify the actors who conducted these attacks.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kirill Budanov and

Turkish Military Intelligence Chief Rafet Dalkiran agreed to deepen intelligence
cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey on January 5.548 Ukrainian readouts and
Turkish reports state the intelligence chiefs exchanged views and agreed to deepen cooperation
between intelligence agencies. Reports did not mention a formal signed agreement.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Czech Foreign Minister Jan
Lipavský agreed on joint steps to deter Russian aggression against Ukraine in a
January 4 phone call.549 This call was Kuleba’s first call with Lipavsky, who was appointed
Czech foreign minister on December 17.
Ukraine enacted a law prohibiting Russian commercial and passenger naval

vessels from entering Ukrainian inland waterways on January 1.550 The law
prohibits vessels with Russian flags, vessels registered to Russian citizens or businesses based
in Russia, and vessels registered to sanctioned Russian entities from entering Ukrainian inland
waterways.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 28

that the Russian Armed Forces sent fuel, weapons, military equipment, electronic
warfare assets, and drones via railways and roads to Russian proxy forces in
Donetsk and Luhansk throughout December 2021.551 The GUR claimed that Russia
sent military supplies via humanitarian convoys and deployed additional armored combat
vehicles to Donbas. The GUR claimed that Russian military personnel and mercenaries operate
as scouts, snipers, artillerymen, liaison officers, and electronic reconnaissance and electronic
warfare specialists in the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk proxies.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a phone call with members of the
US Congress on December 24.552 Zelensky emphasized that Russian forces have not
withdrawn from Ukraine, the importance of increasing US-Ukraine security cooperation, and
the importance of including Ukraine in any talks regarding Ukraine.
Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said that Ukraine began
manufacturing Turkish-designed Bayraktar TB2 UAVs in Ukraine on December
24.553 Yermak said that TB2 production in Ukraine “has already started” but did not specify
when production began. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Turkish Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on October 7 and stated that Ukraine determined the location of a
plot of land where a TB2 production facility would be located.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 24 that

Russian forces in command of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics
militias are increasing exercises to improve coordination between combat and
support units. 554 GUR claims that the DNR and LNR are increasing small arms, artillery,
tank, and combat vehicle exercises to improve coordination of motorized infantry units, tank
crews, and artillery and mortar units. GUR claimed that Russian personnel are meeting with
DNR and LNR artillery units to conduct exercises to fire 152-mm howitzers and 122-mm Grad
multiple rocket launchers.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced on December 23 that it updated

military draft regulations on December 17, requiring Ukrainian women to
register for military draft in 2022.555 Women between 18 and 60 years old are required to
register for the draft and can be mobilized in Ukraine’s national guard in the event of a major
war. This announcement significantly changed the Ukrainian information space dynamics
regarding the public perception of the real possibility of a major war with Russia. Ukrainian
women are protesting this change en masse. Over 30,000 Ukrainians have petitioned
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to change the policy as of December 27.556
Head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov
said that Russia concentrated approximately 122,000 military personnel within
200 kilometers distance of Ukraine’s borders and approximately 143,500 military
personnel within 400 kilometers borders on December 22.557
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv wants to break the deadlock
in the Donbas peace process and gain clarity on Ukraine’s NATO membership
timeline in 2022 on December 21.558 Zelensky stated Ukraine is ready to hold peace talks
with Russia in any format.559 Zelensky also stated he and NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg discussed the possibility of Ukraine participating in the NATO summit in Madrid
in 2022.
Commander of the Ukrainian Navy Oleksiy Neizhpapa said on December 20 that

Ukraine will acquire 12 US Mark VI high-speed combat boats at an unspecified
future date in 2022.560 Neizhpapa said that Ukraine will likely use the Mark VI boats for
special operations in the Sea of Azov or to preserve Ukrainian maritime passage rights in the
Kerch Strait. The Ukrainian navy will likely utilize these boats to counter increased Russian
military activity and exercises in and along the Black Sea.
The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine and the Danish Ministry of Defense

signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on joint ship construction on December

18.561 Ukrainian officials stated that joint Ukrainian-Danish ship production will occur at a
Ukrainian plant with more than 50 percent of orders fulfilled by Ukrainian firms. The
memorandum reportedly also stipulates that Ukraine’s Sea Guard will acquire an undisclosed
number of Danish-designed MPV80 offshore patrol vessels, with the completion of the first
ship planned by 2024.562
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg in Brussels, Belgium on December 16.563 Stoltenberg said that NATO will
agree to a new concept of NATO-Ukraine cooperation at the 2022 NATO summit in Madrid on
June 29-30, 2022. Zelensky discussed the importance of increasing NATO-Ukraine exercises in
the Black and Azov Seas. Stoltenberg said that NATO and Ukraine are stronger together, and
that Ukraine’s right to further security cooperation with NATO does not threaten Russia.
Stoltenberg said that Ukraine’s dialogue with NATO is a fundamental principle of European
security. Stoltenberg said that NATO has not seen a decrease of Russian military build-up near
Ukraine, and that any further aggression will have serious consequences for Russia.
Stoltenberg said that NATO will continue assisting Ukraine with training and advising of the
Ukrainian military, the development of cybersecurity, conducting joint maneuvers, and
supporting military reform.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev

discussed bilateral relations and Turkish/Azerbaijani support for Ukraine at a
meeting in Brussels, Belgium during the sixth Eastern Partnership Summit on
December 15.564 Zelensky thanked Aliyev for Azerbaijan’s ongoing support for Ukrainian
sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russian aggression. Zelensky discussed the
intensification of bilateral cooperation between the countries following his working visit to
Azerbaijan in December 2019. Zelensky and Aliyev discussed the need to implement a transit
route along the Europe-Caucasus-Asia route using rail and sea transport. Zelensky and Aliyev
discussed transit construction plans implemented under the Great Construction National
Program implemented in July 2020. Zelensky proposed a summit between Ukraine, Turkey,
and Azerbaijan in Kyiv in February 2022.
Ukrainian President Zelensky gave an interview to Italian newspaper La

Repubblica on December 13.565 Zelensky stated Russia is increasing its troops numbers on
the Ukrainian border to blackmail the West, and stated that “in some European capitals fear
prevails,” referencing Germany’s decision to block the sale of weaponry to Ukraine. Zelensky
stated Ukraine constantly pursues a diplomatic solution to the conflict because it is aware of
the human cost, and stated “it is questionable whether or not Russian society is ready or not to
pay for the attempt to occupy another part of Ukraine with the lives of its children.” In
response to a question on Ukraine’s willingness to give up its NATO aspirations as part of a
deal with Russia, Zelensky stated Russia does not honor any agreements, referencing the 1994
Budapest Memorandum. Finally, Zelensky stated he will not be able to say Western efforts
have had any affect on Russia until Russia withdraws troops from the Ukrainian border.
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated Ukraine must rely on its own military and
has done everything possible to prevent a Russian invasion in an interview with 1
+ 1 news on December 10.566 Ukrainian oligarch and Zelensky backer Ihor Kolomoisky
owns 1 + 1. Zelensky said that despite Kyiv’s desire to join NATO, admittance is in the hands of
NATO’s member-states and that some unspecified states are putting “barriers” in Ukraine’s
path. Zelensky said that Ukraine must be able to confront Russian aggression on its own if it
must, and stated the willingness of every Ukrainian to fight if needed is “stronger than any
military bloc.”

Zelensky stated Ukrainian society does not support coup attempts and claimed groups
responsible for coups “saw that society does not support them.”567 Zelensky did not provide
further details to support his claim of a Akhmetov-backed coup against Ukraine he claimed was
planned for December 1-2, but stated “some forces” received signals from abroad that “forced
them to halt their intentions” – alluding to preventing a Russian-backed coup without saying
so directly.
Zelensky additionally discussed several results of his December 9 call with Joe Biden 568:
• Ukraine must retain the Normandy Format as-is with France and Germany, stating Macron
and new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both support the format.
• Zelensky stated Biden is open to a role in the Normandy format, however, “not just
moderating the process or watching from the sidelines.” Zelensky stated American
participation could also take the form of a separate platform that cooperates with the
Normandy Four.
• Zelensky does not rule out direct talks with Putin and “sees support for this direction” from
Europe and the US. Zelensky directly stated Ukraine will not hold direct talks with the
DNR/LNR without Russian participation, however, and praised Macron for his support of
this Ukrainian stance.
• Zelensky claimed that during his call with Biden, he received a “message of assurances from
Russia that it is not going to continue the escalation of the territories of our state” and
praised this “small and not final but very important result” of Ukraine’s efforts to prevent
an invasion.
• Zelensky noted Putin only wants to talk to the United States, not any other states, but that
Ukraine and its allies seek to present a united front.
• Finally, Zelensky stated he would not rule out a referendum on the status of “Donbas,
Crimea, or ending the war in general,” while claiming Ukraine will not give up its
territories. This is not an inflection from Zelensky’s previous rhetoric that any possible
decision could be put to a national referendum as a populist measure.
Zelensky said that he does not “exclude the possibility” of holding a “referendum”
to grant Donbas increased legal autonomy on December 10.569 This is a significant
rhetorical inflection for Zelensky, who has so far refused to capitulate to Kremlin demands and
irreversibly undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Russia’s military

buildup near Ukraine on December 10.570 Zelensky and Macron discussed resuming
negotiations in the Normandy Format Tripartite Contact Group (TCG). Zelensky and Macron
agreed to continue discussions on security issues at the Eastern Partnership Summit in
Brussels on December 15.
Military Times reported that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry assessed that there are
approximately 120,000 Russian troops near Ukraine’s border as of December
8.571 The updated Ukrainian assessment reportedly includes 98,000 ground troops and
approximately 22,000 airborne and naval personnel.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 7 that

Russia is reinforcing the front line in Donbas with an unspecified number of
122mm self-propelled artillery, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles.572 The GUR
also stated that Russian forces increased proxy sniper readiness through increased training.

Reznikov called on Canada, the United States, and the UK to provide Ukraine with
additional military support in an interview published on December 5.573 Reznikov
stated Ukraine needs Canadian, US, and UK assistance in securing anti-aircraft missiles,
modern warplanes, navy vessels, and electronic jamming equipment. Reznikov also suggested
that Canada should increase its training mission in Yavoriv, Ukraine, from 50 to 500
instructors.574 Reznikov said Canada should deploy more Canadian trainers to Kharkiv,
Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Odesa, and Zminiy Island to deter a Russian military action. Canadian
Chief of Defense Staff Wayne Eyre said on December 2 that Canada will not increase its
military presence in Ukraine.575
Reznikov stated Russia may conduct a large-scale escalation at the end of January
during an address to the Ukrainian parliament on December 3.576 Reznikov said
Russia has accumulated approximately 94,300 troops near Ukraine and in Donbas and
Crimea. Reznikov stated that Russia deployed over 50 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to the
Ukrainian border between April and September.577 Reznikov said that Russia has 41 BTGs at a
constant state of readiness around Ukraine, 33 on a permanent basis and eight “additionally
transferred to Crimea," and implied that Russia left military equipment at Ukraine’s borders
after some BTGs returned to their permanent positions earlier in the year. 578 Reznikov noted
that Russia began its winter training season near Ukraine in the Bryansk and Smolensk
regions, activated reconnaissance assets, established signals, and camouflaged the troops
throughout the week of November 21-28.579 Reznikov said if two Russian Baltic Fleet landing
ships redeploy from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, Russia will have nine vessels with a
capacity to transport 3,000 servicemen and up to 250 armored combat vehicles to the region.
Reznikov said Ukraine and its partners are looking for political ways to frame a potential
invasion as detrimental and unacceptable to Russia.580 Ukraine likely seeks to leverage Russia’s
dependance on the European gas market and the threat of further sanctions to prevent an
invasion. Reznikov announced that Ukraine and the UK are building two naval bases in
Ochakovo, Mykolaiv, and Berdyansk, Zaporizhia.581 Reznikov said that Ukraine’s main priority
is establishing a Western-supported anti-missile program by 2032—a goal that will likely
prompt further Russian military campaigns.582
Zelensky and Canadian President Justin Trudeau had a phone call on Russian
threats to Ukraine on December 2.583 Zelensky and Trudeau discussed Russian security
threats to Ukraine and agreed on the need to increase economic, political, and sanctions
pressure against Russia in the event of an escalation against Ukraine.
Zelensky restated Kyiv’s desire to implement Ukraine’s Association Agreement

with the European Union and stated his readiness to talk to Russia at an address
to the Ukrainian parliament on December 1.584 Zelensky reiterated that Kyiv aims to
implement the European Union Association Agreement and claimed that Ukraine has fulfilled
60 percent of the agreement’s requirements.585 Zelensky stated that negotiating with Russia is
necessary to end the war in Donbas. The Kremlin will likely intensify military pressure against
Ukraine and NATO over the next several weeks to curtail Kyiv’s efforts to join Western
structures.
Ukraine’s GUR claimed on November 30 that Russia sent the DNR and LNR more
ammunition, lubricants, military equipment, UAVs, and electronic warfare assets
in November.586 This report, if accurate, indicates a growing Russian command and control
development activity in occupied Donbas that could support Russian combat operations in
Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on November 29 claimed that Russia deployed
an unspecified “group of Russian military personnel” to the DNR and LNR to
strengthen DNR and LNR reconnaissance, sabotage, and sapper units sometime
during the week of November 21-28.587 Ukraine’s defense ministry did not provide
details on the size or organization of this Russian military “group.”
Kuleba gave a speech articulating Ukraine’s strategy to deter a Russian invasion

on November 29. Kuleba said Ukraine seeks to deter and demotivate Russia from
conducting further military activities against Ukraine.588 He said Ukraine proposed to its
international partners a package of measures consisting of three main points: political
containment of Russia, economic deterrence from new sanctions tied to a new Russian
offensive, and the enhancement of Ukraine’s defensive capabilities though international
defense cooperation.
Zelensky claimed that Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov (a former Party of

Regions funder, Viktor Yanukovych partner, and alleged Donetsk mafia boss) was
planning a coup that did not occur in tandem with Russian actors on December 1
or 2 in a carefully orchestrated press conference on November 26. Zelensky stated
that Ukrainian intelligence received information about a planned coup against Zelensky’s
government on December 1 or 2. Zelensky stated that “representatives of Russia” along with
Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov were planning the coup. Zelensky suggested that the
Russian coup attempt may be enlisting Akhmetov’s participation without Akhmetov’s
knowledge.589 Zelensky did not present any evidence of these claims. Zelensky also stated that
Ukraine has received assurances from allies—the United States, Canada, UK, the EU, and
Turkey—that they will support Ukraine in the event of an escalation. 590
Ukrainian defense officials continue to issue contradictory statements about a

Russian offensive as of November 25. Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and
Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov contradicted Ukrainian GUR Chief Kirill Budanov’s claims of
a Russian offensive around mid-January on November 25.591 Danilov stated “we do not see the
threats that Mr. Budanov is talking about for January 15.” Danilov characterized Russian
threats against Ukraine as not new, and said that Ukraine is ready to respond.
Zelensky had a phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the
Russian buildup on November 25. They agreed to coordinate international efforts to
oppose Russian threats and preserve sanctions policy.592 They also discussed the migration
crisis on the border with Belarus and Poland.
Zelensky had a telephone conversation with the President of the European

Council Charles Michel on November 25. They agreed to coordinate efforts and
discussed the Russian buildup. Michel discussed the results of his November 24 call with
Putin. Michel said that de-escalation of the situation could be helped by contacts between the
Ukrainian and Russian sides with the participation of the EU.
Ukrainian Force Deployments
The Ukrainian military deployed the 201st Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade to

southern Ukraine to guard southern Ukrainian territory against Russian air
threats from Crimea on January 6.593 The 201st Brigade is equipped is S-300 air defense
systems.

The Ukrainian military announced on January 4 that Ukrainian reconnaissance
elements are conducting exercises to rapidly repel enemy forces at close range
and conduct raids near Crimea.594
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service stated it constructed ditches to defend

against enemy mechanized movement in Sumy Oblast on December 21.595
Several unspecified Ukrainian anti-tank and engineering units conducted joint

exercises on the border of occupied Crimea on December 15.596 Ukrainian
Lieutenant General Sergei Naev said that participating troops simulated defending against an
armored assault by redeploying anti-tank artillery and installing minefields.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced on December 14 that the Ukrainian

Armed Forces are strengthening air defenses around critical infrastructure.597
The announcement specified that the Armed Forces will strengthen defenses (without
specifying how) on the Dnieper River bridges, hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power
plants, and other unspecified critical infrastructure. The Ukrainian MoD additionally stated
Ukrainian forces are ready and able to protect critical infrastructure and the national
transportation network. It is unclear from this announcement if the Ukrainian military is
redeploying air defense assets or increasing the readiness of units already in place.
Ukraine launched a new operation to reinforce the Ukrainian-Belarusian border

on November 24. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service announced a new special operation
on the border with Belarus called “Poissya” with border guards, national police, national guard,
Ukrainian army, and “other reserves” to counteract illegal migrants on November 24.598
Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis Monastyrskiy announced on November 11 that Ukraine
would reinforce the border with Belarus with 3,000 border guards, 3,500 national guardsmen,
and 2,000 national police.599 Ukraine has not openly deployed military units to the Belarusian
border or elsewhere as of November 24.
Ukraine used Javelins for the first time in training exercises in Zaporizhia in mid-
to-late November. Ukraine’s General Staff stated on November 23 that Ukraine used
Javelins and Bayraktar TB2 drones in training exercises at the Shiroky Lan Training Ground,
Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine.600 Ukraine has not used the Javelin in combat operations yet.
The OSCE observed a likely Ukrainian electronic warfare system near Donbas for
the first time on November 23. The OSCE reports that they spotted a “probable”
Ukrainian Khortytsia-M electronic warfare system about five kilometers from the front line,
east of Mariupol.601 This is the first sighting of the Ukrainian electronic warfare system near
the front.
Belarus
Russian and Belarusian pilots conducted their second joint air patrol of
Belarusian airspace in 2022 on January 12.602 Russian and Belarusian pilots flew Su-
30SM fighters for the patrol.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko gave a speech on January 7 in which

he said he took more measures in an unspecified past time frame to preserve
Belarusian sovereignty and independence to protect Belarus “as a state.”603
Lukashenko said the world is “seriously” changing in 2022 and that the world will change by

“uniting nations and states in unions.” Lukashenko said he took more serious measures in an
unspecified past time frame to protect Belarus’ sovereignty because it would be impossible for
states like Belarus to “survive alone” given these global changes. Lukashenko said that current
events in Kazakhstan should be a lesson for Belarus for what could have happened during the
Belarusian protests in fall 2020. Lukashenko characterized the protests in Kazakhstan as an
“attempt to attack post-Soviet states along Russia’s perimeter” and praised Belarus’ joint
peacekeeping efforts with Russia in Kazakhstan. Lukashenko also criticized Ukraine’s
autocephalous church and said, “we need to do everything to return Ukraine to the bosom of
our true faith.” Lukashenko has not spoken prominently about defending Belarusian
sovereignty and independence in several months. Lukashenko may realize he needs to intensify
efforts to prevent a Russian intervention into Belarus after observing the rapid Collective
Security Treaty Organization operation in Kazakhstan.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused NATO of deploying 30,000

troops on the Polish-Belarusian border on January 6.604 Lukashenko also stated his
support for the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s decision to send forces to Kazakhstan
and stated that “Kazakhstan cannot be given away.” Lukashenko implied that Kazakh
protesters are Western-backed. Lukashenko called for revitalization of Soviet Belarusian
history to form “friendly relations” with Russia and combat Western information operations.
Lukashenko claimed that certain neighboring states politicized their histories to advance
political goals – likely implying Ukraine’s shift away from Soviet history.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held phone calls about the situation
in Kazakhstan with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on January 5.605 Lukashenko confirmed that the leaders
discussed Collective Security Treaty Organization peacekeeping deployments to Kazakhstan on
January 6.606
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a law condemning Nazis and

Nazi-collaborators for genocide against Belarusians and Soviet citizens residing
in Belarus during World War II and denounced genocide-denial on January 5.607
The law aligns with the Kremlin’s campaign to consolidate its preferred historiography on
World War II. This development will more closely align Belarus and Russia’s cultural spheres
and can support Russian efforts to involve Belarus in vilifying Ukraine.
Russian and Belarusian pilots conducted their first joint air patrol of in
Belarusian airspace in 2022 on January 5.608 Russian and Belarusian pilots of Su-30SM
fighters flew for 120 minutes and covered 1,150 kilometers.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko stated that Russia opposes
Western interference in Belarus and said that Belarusians will enjoy visiting
Crimea on January 3. Rudenko said Western curators control Belarusian opposition
leadership. Rudenko said Belarus and Russia are “brotherly peoples” – the language the
Kremlin also uses to describe Russia and Ukraine as one Eastern Slavic nation. Rudenko
expressed support for Belarusian constitutional amendments and stated that Belarusian
President Alexander Lukashenko is welcome to visit Crimea.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed he signed a decree to give

Belarusian citizenship to 380 Ukrainians on December 31.609 Lukashenko
additionally claimed that Belarus has given Belarusian citizenship to more than 2,300
Ukrainians since August 9, 2021. Lukashenko stated that these Ukrainians came from Donetsk

and Luhansk oblasts, implying they are refugees from eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin and Minsk
may frame Ukrainians as refugees to support a larger information operation about a
humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine that necessitates Russian intervention.
Belarus’ 56th Communications Regiment received an unspecified quantity of new

Russian-made “Kestrel” automated intelligence and command and control
systems on December 30.610 The Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that these systems
will improve the “unified automated control” of Belarus’ Air Force and Air Defense Forces. This
is likely a component of the Kremlin’s campaign to expand Russian integration with and
control over the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Putin met with Belarusian President Lukashenko in St Petersburg and discussed

economic cooperation and upcoming military exercises on December 29.611
Lukashenko remained in Russia for the bilateral meeting following a meeting of CIS heads of
state on December 28. Putin and Lukashenko discussed the implementation of the Union state
roadmaps signed in early December. Lukashenko thanked Putin for Russia’s economic support
to counteract Western sanctions on Belarus. Putin stated Russia and Belarus are coordinating
plans for Russian military exercises in Belarus and will likely finalize these plans by February
or March.
The Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC)

announced on December 28 that Belarus plans to purchase Tor-M2 anti-aircraft
missile systems from Russia.612 FSMTC did not specify when Belarus will complete the
purchase.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko threatened to suspend ground cargo

transit between Ukraine and Lithuania through Belarusian territory if Lithuania
blocks Belarusian exports via Lithuania’s Klaipeda seaport on December 22. 613
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces conducted joint staff
training from December 14 to 17.614 The exercises focused on improving the structural
coordination of Belarus’ Ministry of Defense, General Staff, and military command and control
bodies. These exercises can support Russian efforts to deploy Russian forces to Belarus.
The Belarusian military will conduct a joint staff training from December 14-17.615
The Chief of the Belarusian General staff will oversee the exercise, which will include the
“structural divisions of the Ministry of Defense,” the General Staff, and unspecified command
and control bodies. The exercise is intended to improve the coherence of military command
and control bodies.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated his threat to cut off gas
transit to Europe through the Yamal-Europe pipeline in response to EU sanctions
on December 13.616 The European Union imposed a fifth round of sanctions on Belarus in
December 2021 in response to the Belarusian state-manufactured migrant crisis along the
Belarus-Poland border in November 2021. Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that
Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom will still fulfill its obligations to supply gas to
Europe and that Lukashenko’s threat came without Kremlin approval.617 Lukashenko made the
same threat on November 11, prompting Putin to state Lukashenko did not consult with him
beforehand and state and decision by Belarus to halt gas transit would harm relations with
Russia.618

Russia continues to modernize Belarusian brigades through early December.
Russia delivered an unspecified quantity of modernized BTR-82A armored
personnel carriers to the Belarusian 6th Mechanized Brigade in Grodno, Belarus,
on December 9.619 Russia similarly gave an unspecified quantity BTR-82s to the Belarusian
120th Brigade in Minsk on December 2.620 The Kremlin seeks to modernize Belarus’ maneuver
elements to improve interoperability and integration with Russian ground forces.
Lukashenko had a phone call with Putin about Belarusian-Russian relations and
“outside threats” concerning both countries on December 10.621 The call followed
Lukashenko and Putin’s participation in the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council on
December 10. Minsk did not specify the contents of the discussed topics and the Kremlin did
not confirm the call with its own readout.
Lukashenko announced he granted 448 Ukrainians Belarusian citizenship on

December 7.622 Lukashenko stated that Belarus has granted Belarusian citizenship to
approximately 1,200 Ukrainians since August 9, 2021.623 The Kremlin and Minsk may frame
Ukrainians as refugees to support a larger information operation about a humanitarian
catastrophe in Ukraine that necessitates Russian intervention.
Active-duty Belarusian forces began countrywide combat readiness classes to

improve their ability to support a mass mobilization on December 7.624 Belarusian
forces have not mobilized as of December 11. The training emphasizes maintaining
mobilization readiness for large Belarusian formations and command and control elements.
This training supports assessed Russian efforts to permanently deploy Russian forces to
Belarus.
Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko announced Minsk’s intent to

develop industrial cooperation with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union
(EAEU) on December 7. Golovchenko stated that Western sanctions against Belarus will
not achieve their goals and that Russia and Belarus can “withstand any pressure.”
Lukashenko announced that he will deliver an address to Belarus’ parliament in

January and repeated false claims about a NATO buildup near Belarus on
December 6.625 Lukashenko stated that Russia will not attack Ukraine and reiterated
Belarus’ support for Russia. Lukashenko stated that NATO seeks to encircle Russia with a “a
chain [of states hostile to Russia] from the Black to Baltic Sea.” Lukashenko repeated his claim
that the West is conducting a hybrid war color revolution against Belarus. Lukashenko stated
that if opposition leaders ousted Lukashenko’s regime in 2020, then there would have been a
“NATO bloc near Smolensk.” Lukashenko reiterated Kremlin narratives that the Belarusian
opposition seeks to break the Union State with Russia, bring Belarus into NATO, create an
autocephalous (independent from Moscow) Belarusian Orthodox church, and ban the Russian
language.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry claimed that a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter

violated Belarusian airspace in Novaya Rudnya, Belarus, on December 4. 626
Belarusian officials claimed that a Ukrainian Mi-8 flew one kilometer into Belarusian airspace
while conducting Ukraine’s “Poissya” border security operation.627 Ukraine’s State Border
Service denied any violations on December 4.628 A Belarusian border guard official said
Belarusian border guards “will act extremely harshly” if Ukraine further violates the border.629
These claims reinforce Belarusian and Kremlin information operations about a supposed

Ukrainian threat to Belarus and support Russian efforts to set informational conditions for
deploying Russian forces into Belarus.
Kremlin news outlet Rossiya Segodnya published on December 2 that

Lukashenko stated he would not exclude increasing Belarus’ armed forces from
65,000 to 70,000 men to “cover [Belarus’] south” during a November 30
interview.630 Lukashenko also stated that recently announced joint Russian-Belarusian
exercises on Belarus’ southern border with Ukraine will occur within the next two months.631
Lukashenko said Ukraine is “under external control” during the November 30

Rossiya Segodnya interview.632 This statement supports a Russian propaganda narrative
that NATO and Western states, primarily the United States, have turned Ukraine into a proxy.
Lukashenko’s rhetoric is increasingly aligned with Kremlin narratives in an unprecedented
manner. Analysts should consider Lukashenko’s actions as increasingly directed by the
Kremlin. Belarusian forces will likely support Kremlin objectives in any intensified military and
information operations against Ukraine and/or NATO.
Lukashenko said that recent Western actions encouraged deeper Russian-

Belarusian integration at a meeting with the governor of Russia’s Astrakhan
Oblast on December 2.633 Lukashenko’s statement about “Western actions” references both
a falsely claimed NATO hybrid war that Lukashenko alleges the West has waged against
Belarus since fall 2020, and a falsely claimed NATO buildup near Russian and Belarusian
borders since fall 2021.
Russian military units’ freedom of movement in Belarus will likely increase in

2022. Belarusian Armed Forces officially began the new military training year for 2021-2022
on December 1 with an explicit emphasis on intensive combat training.634 The Belarusian MoD
stated that Belarusian exercises in 2022 will occur not only at training grounds but also in
“individual terrain sections of [Belarus’] territory.”635 A permanent Russian deployment to
Belarus is increasingly likely. Belarusian exercises typically occur at established military
training grounds; the extended range of new exercises in Belarus likely presage expanded
Russian force posture shifts within Belarus. Belarusian officials stated on November 29 that
Russia and Belarus will conduct a joint exercise on Belarus’ southern border with Ukraine at an
unspecified future date.636 Belarusian units have not yet begun conducting exercises as of
December 1, however they will likely begin within the next several days or weeks. 637
Lukashenko said he would not exclude offering to host Russian nuclear weapons
in Belarus if NATO deploys nuclear weapons to Eastern Europe on November
30.638 Lukashenko implied that Belarus is ready to resume hosting Russian nuclear
infrastructure—as it did during the Soviet era—if NATO deploys nuclear missile structures to
Eastern Europe.639 This is a significant inflection in Lukashenko’s rhetoric about his openness
to hosting Russian weapon systems in Belarus. Prior to August 2020 Lukashenko was
stalwartly opposed to Russia increasing its military infrastructure in Belarus beyond two Soviet
legacy radar stations. This statement indicates an increased likelihood of a permanent Russian
force deployment to Belarus. Lukashenko and Putin also had phone call on November 29 about
the situation in Belarus and Russia prior to the interview on November 30, which the Kremlin
did not report.640 Putin warned against NATO deploying hypersonic missiles to Ukraine on
November 30.
Lukashenko signaled that Belarus will support Russia during any military
escalation in Donbas on November 29. Lukashenko stated that if the West conducts a

military operation in Donbas or against Russian borders, then “Belarus will not be left on the
sidelines. It is very clear on whose side Belarus will be.”641 Lukashenko also reiterated false
Kremlin claims about reports of a Russian offensive being propaganda and false claims of
increased NATO force buildups against Belarus. This is a significant inflection in Lukashenko’s
rhetoric towards Ukraine. Lukashenko’s rhetoric on Donbas typically has not so closely aligned
with Kremlin talking points.
Belarus’ Ministry of Defense announced that Russia and Belarus will conduct a
joint exercise on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, possibly on December 1.
Belarusian Defense Minister Khrenin announced that all Belarusian troops will begin combat
exercises on December 1 at a Belarusian General Staff meeting on November 29.642 Khrenin
also announced a joint military exercise with Russia on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border on an
unspecified future date which could correspond with the Belarusian exercises that will begin on
December 1.643 Khrenin stated that enemy force groups near Belarus’ western and southern
borders necessitate these measures to protect the Union State.644 Russia will very likely deploy
ground forces to Belarus within the next several days or weeks.
A Belarusian Mechanized Brigade from Grodno reportedly will deploy to

Belarus’s southern border with Ukraine. Belarusian online news outlet Motolko
reported on November 29 that the Belarusian 6th Mechanized Brigade based in Folush,
Grodno, will deploy to Belarus’ southern border with Ukraine.645 There is no open-source
evidence of a deployment of the Belarusian 6th Brigade towards Ukraine as of November 29.
The Belarusian MoD continued to accuse Poland and Lithuania of deploying

forces closer to Belarus on November 26. The Belarusian Head of the Main Directorate
of Ideological Work of the Ministry of Defense on November 26 stated, “Unfortunately, we
cannot note any positive steps taken by our neighbors [regarding alleged Polish and Baltic
military deployments near Belarus]. Along with the previously announced unfriendly steps to
deploy troops and infrastructure, which make it possible to significantly increase the combat
strength and create groupings in a short time, we note the further actions of our neighbors
aimed at escalating the situation.”646 The official claimed that Lithuania concentrated
approximately 4,000 troops near the Belarusian border and criticized Ukraine’s new “Poissya”
border security operation. The Belarusian MoD stated it is prepared to quickly create its own
force groupings if necessary.
Russia and Belarus decided on November 25 to increase the quantity of combined

Russian-Belarusian air patrols in Belarusian airspace. The Belarusian MoD stated
that it made the decision to increase joint patrols due to an increase in foreign aviation around
Belarus’ border—a reference to claimed NATO flights near Belarus. A combined Russian-
Belarusian tactical group of Su-30SM conducted a flight patrol along the Belarusian border on
November 25.647
Russian elements’ presence in Belarusian exercises will likely further expand in

2022. Chief of the Belarusian General Staff Viktor Gulevich stated on November 23 that the
Belarusian MoD “significantly adjusted” the training process of the Belarusian Armed Forces in
2021-2022 after “taking into account the difficult military-political situation created by
Western countries” in regard to the migrant crisis. “We are forced to respond to the
intensification of military activity along the outer contour of the State Border of the Republic of
Belarus.” Gulevich accused a “belt of unfriendly states” of surrounding Belarus like an
“anaconda.”648 Gulevich stated Belarus will thus intensify Belarusian exercises.

Strategic Calendar
November – December: Waterways near the Pinsk Marshes in Belarus freeze.649 Some bogs never
freeze.650 Generally, Russian bogs usually begin to freeze about two weeks after the stable transition of
air temperature through 0 degrees Celsius to negative values.651 Pinsk historically gets to around this
condition in late December through February.652 Russian geographic information indicates that
traversing the Pinsk Marshes, even in winter, is dangerous; the ice is thin in many spots and even
experienced adventurers who traverse it on foot can fall through and drown.653 It is unclear how
traversable the marshes actually are for mechanized forces, even in ideal winter conditions.
December 1: Zelensky delivered an address to the Verkhovna Rada in which he reiterated Ukraine’s
desire to implement the European Union Association Agreement and articulated readiness to talk to
the Kremlin.
December 2: US, Russian, and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Stockholm, Sweden.654
December 6-10: New German Cabinet.655
December 7: Putin-Biden videoconference.656
December 15: Eastern Partnership summit focusing on “stability and cooperation,” in Brussels,
Belgium.657
December 23: Putin press conference.658
December 28: Meeting between Putin and Lukashenko.659
December 30: Putin-Biden phone call.660
December–January: Anticipated joint Russo-Belarusian exercise on Belarus’ southern border with

Ukraine.661
January: Lukashenko gives speech to the Belarusian parliament and nation.662
January 7: Videoconference among NATO foreign ministers.663
January 9-10: US-Russia talks on security guarantees in Geneva.664
January 12: NATO-Russia Council meeting on security guarantees in Europe in Brussels.665
January 13: OSCE-Russia meeting.666
January 15–February 15: Seasonal freeze in Ukraine that the Ukrainian GUR is forecasting the
Russians will plan maneuvers around. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council contradicts
GUR’s claims and does not see these dates as particularly significant as of November 25. 667
Late March- Mid April: Rasputitsa, the annual period of snow melt that makes travel difficult,
occurs—though it varies by region and local climate factors.668

1 https://www dot mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1794246/; https://www.mid dot
ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1794241/; https://osce dot mid.ru/-/a-k-lukasevic-o-problemah-v-sfere-evrobezopasnosti-i-
rossijskih-predlozeniah-po-dolgosrocnym-uridiceski-obazyvausim-garantiam-rossii-na-zapadnyh-
rubez?inheritRedirect=true&redirect=%2F; https://tass dot ru/politika/13422215; https://tass dot ru/politika/13416685;
https://tass dot ru/politika/13421083
2 https://tass dot ru/politika/13416685
3 https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1794246/
6 https://www.mk dot ru/politics/2022/01/13/rossiya-otkazalas-ot-novogo-raunda-peregovorov-po-garantiyam-
bezopasnosti.html; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/815237; https://tass dot ru/politika/13417045; https://tvzvezda

dot ru/news/20221131442-MHlRp.html; https://tass dot ru/politika/13419349; https://tass dot ru/politika/13417645;
https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/13417803; https://russian.rt dot com/world/news/948667-zamglavy-mid-ryabkov-
ssha?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS; https://www.kommersant dot
ru/doc/5158706?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=amplifr_social
8 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20221131442-MHlRp.html
9 https://tass dot ru/politika/13417645; https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/13417803
11 https://www.reuters.com/world/us-senate-democrats-unveil-russia-sanctions-bill-washington-post-2022-01-12/
12 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20221131522-cFIsE.html; https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/01/13/lavrov_word/
14 https://function.mil dot ru:443/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12403251@egNews
15 https://ria dot ru/20220113/donbass-1767649935.html
16 https://iz dot ru/1276588/2022-01-13/bespilotnik-obse-obstreliali-vblizi-podkontrolnoi-kievu-territorii-donbassa
17 https://osce.usmission.gov/response-to-the-opening-address-by-the-osce-chairperson-in-office-and-minister-for-
foreign-affairs-of-poland-zbigniew-rau/; https://sports.yahoo.com/u-envoy-warns-escalation-amid-162824303.html
foreign-affairs-of-poland-zbigniew-rau/
20 https://sports.yahoo.com/u-envoy-warns-escalation-amid-162824303.html
21 https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-joe-scarborough-mika-brzezinksi-and-willie-geist-of-morning-
joe-on-msnbc/
22 https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-shermans-meeting-with-french-german-italian-and-uk-counterparts/
23 https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-shermans-meeting-with-chief-of-staff-for-the-president-of-the-european-
commission-seibert/
24 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-czech-foreign-minister-lipavsky/
25 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/baltics-talks-increase-nato-troops-their-soil-estonian-pm-2022-01-12/
26 https://mfa dot gov.ua/news/komentar-ministra-zakordonnih-sprav-ukrayini-dmitra-kulebi-za-pidsumkami-
zasidannya-postijnoyi-radi-obsye-13-sichnya
29 https://www dot rosbalt.ru/world/2022/01/13/1939256.html; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-
panorama/13416857; https://russian dot rt.com/world/news/948630-obse-voyna-organizaciya.

30 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europe-greatest-risk-war-30-years-poland-warns-2022-01-13/
31 https://www dot znak.com/2022-01-
13/vice_spiker_gosdumy_schitaet_chto_rossiya_dolzhna_byt_vosstanovlena_v_granicah_imperii
32 https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/2253984518076591; https://rus.lb dot
ua/society/2021/11/26/499511_smi_ustanovili_poligon_gde_nachalis.html;
https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/2259556680852708
https://www.mil.gov dot ua/news/2021/11/29/czentr-operativnogo-informuvannya-povidomlyae/
33 https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/2271326459675730
34 Taftneft complained about difficulties in railway transit on November 22 (likely because the MoD is hogging all the rail
space to move military equipment). The Russian Steel Association made similar complaints in late October.
https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/5088497
35 https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/2253984518076591; https://rus.lb dot
ua/society/2021/11/26/499511_smi_ustanovili_poligon_gde_nachalis.html

36 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/us/politics/russia-ukraine-helicopters.html
37 https://globalaffairs dot ru/articles/vysokoe-napryazhenie/
38 https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/806280
40 https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1469635671296024581/photo/1
41 https://function.mil dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12397993@egNews; https://function.mil dot
ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12397977@egNews
42 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1468637241161486342;
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1469641441144184834;
https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/1468684037057351690
43 https://www dot unian.net/war/pod-voronezh-perebrosili-divizion-buk-v-seti-poyavilis-video-novosti-donbassa-
11636365.html ; https://www.unian dot ua/war/pid-voronezh-perekinuli-divizion-buk-u-merezhi-z-yavilis-video-novini-

donbasu-11636368.html ; https://meduza dot io/news/2021/12/09/conflict-intelligence-team-pod-voronezh-perebrosili-
divizion-zrk-buk; https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1468683134107635725
44 https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/1458570720737378307;
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1461799584506777604
45 https://function.mil dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12396540@egNews
46 https://tvrain dot
ru/news/cit_nashel_video_s_perebroskoj_voennoj_tehniki_iz_sibiri_v_storonu_ukrainskoj_granitsy-
543075/?from=rss
48 https://function.mil dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12396565@egNews;
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1465976263932358659
51 https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/13005419
53 https://eng.mil dot ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12398961@egNews
55 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202111241251-8fMD3.html
57 https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1475898285235838976
58 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67250
59 https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/141918/; https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/141484/
60 http://www.svr.gov dot ru/smi/2021/11/ssha-provotsiruyut-obostrenie-na-vostoke-ukrainy.htm
61 https://ria dot ru/20211215/nato-1763877970.html
62 https://radiosputnik.ria dot ru/20211209/genotsid-1763034071.html
63 https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1463208793744023554
64 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-putin/putin-warns-of-second-srebrenica-if-no-amnesty-for-east-
ukraine-idUSKBN1YE240
65 https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1470327761705136130
67 https://www.interfax dot ru/world/805489; https://president.gov dot by/ru/events/coveshchanie-po-voprosam-
voennoy-bezopasnosti; https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/142016/

68 https://tass dot com/politics/1364321
69 https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4976862
70 https://www dot mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4975267
71 https://novosti.dn dot ua/news/318099-v-partiyu-edinaya-rossiya-vstupila-pervaya-sotnya-zhitelej-ordlo
72 https://viar dot media/watch_video.php?v=3606
73 https://www dot gazeta.ru/politics/news/2021/12/27/17071453.shtml
75
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine%20Invasion%20Forecast%20Series%20Part%201%20IS
W%20CT%20December%202021.pdf
76

77
79
80 https://ria dot ru/20211231/razgrom-1766258082.html
84 https://www dot rosbalt.ru/world/2022/01/13/1939256.html; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-
panorama/13416857; https://russian dot rt.com/world/news/948630-obse-voyna-organizaciya.

85 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europe-greatest-risk-war-30-years-poland-warns-2022-01-13/
86 https://www dot znak.com/2022-01-
13/vice_spiker_gosdumy_schitaet_chto_rossiya_dolzhna_byt_vosstanovlena_v_granicah_imperii
87 https://riafan dot ru/1586958-zaharova-posovetovala-predstavitelyu-gosdepa-nuland-zanyatsya-problemami-vnutri-
ssha
88 https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-january-11-2022/
90 https://ria dot ru/20220111/gazoprovod-1767419500.html
91 https://riafan dot ru/1586871-peskov-peregovory-po-garantiyam-bezopasnosti-obramlyayutsya-agressivnymi-
zayavleniyami-ssha
92 https://riafan dot ru/1586882-v-kremle-oprovergli-svyazi-mezhdu-ucheniyami-vs-rf-i-konsultaciyami-s-nato
94 https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/01/11/artpodgotovka/
95 https://iz dot ru/1275322/2022-01-11/v-norvegii-predlozhili-priniat-rossiiu-v-nato
96 https://www.aftenposten dot no/meninger/kronikk/i/28JbAa/er-ny-storkrig-uungaaelig
97 https://iz dot ru/1275322/2022-01-11/v-norvegii-predlozhili-priniat-rossiiu-v-nato
98 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20221111434-n4QaY.html
99 https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1480536290730913798
100 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20221111525-IkxLD.html
102 https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/01/10/stilltalking/
103 https://ria dot ru/20220110/talony-1767110108.html
104 https://ria dot ru/20220110/potok-1767095976.html
105 https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/01/10/vernut/
106 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-10/russia-s-state-media-is-curbing-its-hostile-coverage-of-
ukraine
107 https://riafan dot ru/1583903-estoniya-ispugalas-rossiiskikh-desantnikov-v-kazakhstane
108 https://riafan dot ru/1583744-vashington-otreagiroval-na-vvod-mirotvorcev-v-kazakhstan
109 https://www domk.ru/amp/politics/2022/01/05/eksperty-svyazali-protesty-v-kazakhstane-s-predstoyashhimi-
peregovorami-rf-i-ssha.html
110 https://amp dot kp dot ru/daily/27348.3/4528178/
111 https://baltnews dot ee/mir_novosti/20220105/1020042262/Deputat-Gosdumy-RF-Zatulin-v-besporyadkakh-v-
Kazakhstane-reshili-ispolzovat-molodezh.html
112 https://baltnews dot ee/mir_novosti/20220105/1020042262/Deputat-Gosdumy-RF-Zatulin-v-besporyadkakh-v-
Kazakhstane-reshili-ispolzovat-molodezh.html
113 https://www.gazeta dot ru/politics/news/2022/01/05/17102389.shtml
114 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67461; http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67462
115 https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13355063
116 https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13354663; https://www.ft.com/content/db2d642b-5068-40c3-a4c2-
d3c330f3972b
117 https://ria dot ru/20220104/nato-1766506671.html?in=t
118 https://riafan dot ru/1582245-baiden-peregovoril-s-zelenskim-a-sbu-vykrali-zashitnika-lnr-v-donbasse
119 https://lug.gp dot gov.ua/ua/news.html?_m=publications&_c=view&_t=rec&id=309817
120 https://riafan dot ru/1582245-baiden-peregovoril-s-zelenskim-a-sbu-vykrali-zashitnika-lnr-v-donbasse
121 https://iz dot ru/1273295/2022-01-04/v-gosdume-nazvali-posledstviia-dlia-kieva-v-sluchae-agressii-v-otnoshenii-
kryma

122 https://aif dot ru/society/mid_rf_ne_obyazana_postavlyat_gaz_v_evropu_cherez_ukrainu; https://tass dot
ru/ekonomika/13351815
123 https://ria dot ru/20220103/gaz-1766471210.html
124 https://riafan dot ru/1582188-byvshii-sovetnik-trampa-mills-zayavil-o-slabosti-baidena-pered-putinym
125 https://t dot me/vv_volodin/264
126 https://ria dot ru/20211231/razgrom-1766258082.html
127 https://riafan dot ru/1579026-eks-ministr-ukrainy-suslov-porekomendoval-kievu-prekratit-schitat-rossiyu-
agressorom
128 https://ria dot ru/20211226/napadenie-1765539073.html
129 https://riafan dot ru/1578002-peskov-dalneishee-rasshirenie-nato-yavlyaetsya-dlya-rossii-voprosom-zhizni-i-smerti
130 https://riafan dot ru/1578027-peskov-konflikt-v-donbasse-nedopustimo-reshat-voennymi-sredstvami
131 https://tass dot com/world/1380355; https://tass dot com/world/1380371
132 https://riafan dot ru/1576845-eks-oficer-sbu-prozorov-shkola-ili-bolnica-mogut-stat-celyu-provokacii-vsu-s-
himoruzhiem
133 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/2021122376-P31HC.html; https://ria dot ru/20211223/partizany-1765030845.html;
https://life dot ru/p/1459054; https://lenta dot ru/news/2021/12/23/partisan/; https://www.kp dot

ru/online/news/4566509/
134 https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2880309/pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-
holds-a-press-briefing/
135 https://www.gazeta dot ru/army/news/2021/12/21/17039557.shtml; https://riafan dot ru/1574982-pentagon-vvs-
ssha-prodolzhat-operacii-v-nebe-nad-chernym-morem; https://ria dot ru/20211222/more-1764909864.html

137 https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1470327761705136130
138 https://riafan dot ru/1569038-eks-glava-mid-ukrainy-klimkin-na-zapade-k-nam-stalo-gorazdo-menshe-doveriya
139 https://radiosputnik dot ria.ru/20211210/provokatsiya-1763066932.html
140 https://iz dot ru/1262526/2021-12-10/deputat-rady-zaiavil-o-podgotovke-kievom-voennoi-provokatcii-protiv-rossii
141 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/viral-disinformation-kremlin%E2%80%99s-coronavirus-
information-operation-ukraine
142 https://radiosputnik.ria dot ru/20211209/genotsid-1763034071.html
https://function dot mil dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12397972@egNews

144 https://rg dot ru/2021/12/11/peskov-rf-bespokoit-perebroska-cherez-grecheskij-port-voennoj-tehniki-nato.html;
https://riafan dot ru/1569557-peskov-rossiya-obespokoena-perebroskoi-vooruzheniya-nato-cherez-grecheskii-port

145 http://redstar dot ru/nashi-yuzhnye-rubezhi-nadyozhno-zashhishheny/
146 https://riafan dot ru/1568705-zaharova-zayavila-o-perebroske-kievom-tyazheloi-artillerii-k-linii-fronta-v-donbasse
147 https://riafan dot ru/1569730-narodnaya-miliciya-lnr-obvinila-vsu-v-razmeshchenii-voennoi-tehniki-na-okrainah-
sela-voitovo
148 https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4988762#1
150 https://www dot mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4988103
152 https://riafan dot ru/1567790-viktoriya-nuland-ukazala-na-znachitelnoe-prevoshodstvo-rossiiskoi-armii-nad-
ukrainskoi; https://www dot pravda.com.ua/news/2021/12/8/7316668/

153 https://tass dot com/world/1371895
154 https://iz dot ru/1260565/2021-12-07/obse-zafiksirovala-perebrosku-ukrainoi-voennoi-tekhniki-v-donbass
155 https://www.osce.org/files/2021-12-06%20SMM%20Daily%20Report_Vienna.pdf?itok=12715
156 https://odkb-csto dot org/news/smi/v-ria-novosti-odkb-nazvali-ucheniya-nato-v-vostochnoy-evrope-
provokatsiey/#loaded
157 https://ria dot ru/20211206/provokatsiya-1762462527.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop
158 https://riafan dot ru/1566593-boicy-vsu-razmestili-bolee-15-tankov-i-btr-v-treh-naselennyh-punktah-donbassa
159 https://riafan dot ru/1565843-narodnaya-miliciya-lnr-obvinila-kiev-v-primenenii-stancii-radioelektronnoi-borby-v-
donbasse
160 https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/506816; https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-
mission-to-ukraine/506816
161 https://www.dw dot com/en/moscow-claims-us-spy-plane-nearly-caused-mid-air-catastrophe/a-60027286
ru/news/v_rosaviatsii_soobschili_ob_opasnom_sblizhenii_samoleta_razvedchika_nato_s_lajnerom_aeroflota_nad_ch
ernym_morem-543332/
163 https://riafan dot ru/1566414-zaharova-otreagirovala-na-incident-s-samoletom-vvs-ssha-i-lainerom-aeroflota

164 https://riafan dot ru/1566150-zaharova-otvetila-na-slova-psaki-o-vozmozhnosti-vstupleniya-ukrainy-v-nato
165 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/2021123625-B2i11.html
166 https://www.vg dot no/nyheter/utenriks/i/z7VJV9/stoere-regjeringen-vil-begrense-alliert-trafikk-naer-russland
168 https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1466350620370259970
169 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20211221311-6BWYu.html
170 https://riafan dot ru/1564811-peskov-veroyatnost-voennyh-deistvii-v-donbasse-kraine-vysoka
171 https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1466350620370259970
175 NATO published “Myths About Relations Between Russia and the Alliance” on October 22. https://www.mid dot
ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/-/asset_publisher/0vP3hQoCPRg5/content/id/4975308;
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm
177https://riafan dot ru/1562956-zelenskii-vnes-v-radu-zakonoproekt-o-dopuske-inostrannyh-voisk-na-territoriyu-
ukrainy
178 Zelensky previously registered the same international drills approval bill in April and December 2020, and September
2021. http://w1.c1http://w1.c1 dot

rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc2_5_1_J?ses=10010&num_s=2&num=&date1=&date2=&name_zp=+%E4%EE%EF%F3
%F1%EA+%EF%B3%E4%F0%EE%E7%E4%B3%EB%B3%E2+%E7%E1%F0%EE%E9%ED%E8%F5+%F1%E8%EB+%B3
%ED%F8%E8%F5+%E4%E5%F0%E6%E0%E2+%ED%E0+%F2%E5%F0%E8%F2%EE%F0%B3%FE&out_type=&id=
179 https://www.rt dot com/russia/541629-zelensky-submitted-bill-armed-forces/; https://tass dot com/world/1367885
180 https://tass dot ru/politika/13049145; https://iz dot ru/1256484/2021-11-28/peskov-nazval-nepriemlemym-
nagnetanie-vokrug-rossiiskoi-ugrozy
181 https://tass dot ru/politika/13049145; https://iz dot ru/1256484/2021-11-28/peskov-nazval-nepriemlemym-
nagnetanie-vokrug-rossiiskoi-ugrozy
182 https://viar dot media/watch_video.php?v=3606
183https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/437756
184 https://www.vesti dot ru/article/2645099; https://iz dot ru/1256145/2021-11-27/naryshkin-obvinil-ssha-v-popytke-
razzhech-konflikt-v-donbasse; https://riafan dot ru/1561788-glava-svr-naryshkin-nazval-zlonamerennoi-propagandoi-

ssha-zayavleniya-o-rossiiskom-vtorzhenii; https://radiosputnik.ria dot ru/20211127/ukraina-1761022631.html;
https://ria dot ru/20211127/naryshkin-1761017585.html; https://tass dot ru/politika/13042633
188 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202111241251-8fMD3.html
189 https://www.rbc dot ru/rbcfreenews/619e0e2b9a79470950345eb0
190 https://iz dot ru/1254370/2021-11-24/na-ukraine-raskryli-lozh-ssha-o-vozmozhnom-vtorzhenii-rossii
191 https://globalaffairs dot ru/articles/vysokoe-napryazhenie/
192 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202111231239-XPL5F.html
193 https://iz dot ru/1254040/2021-11-23/patrushev-zaiavil-o-vozmozhnosti-poiavleniia-millionov-bezhentcev-iz-ukrainy
194 https://military.pravda dot ru/news/1662940-nuclear/ ; https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-notes-significant-
increase-us-bomber-activity-east-minister-2021-11-23/
195 https://www.interfax dot ru/world/804488
196 http://www.svr.gov dot ru/smi/2021/11/ssha-provotsiruyut-obostrenie-na-vostoke-ukrainy.htm
197 https://www dot mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1794246/; https://www.mid dot
ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1794241/; https://osce dot mid.ru/-/a-k-lukasevic-o-problemah-v-sfere-evrobezopasnosti-i-

rossijskih-predlozeniah-po-dolgosrocnym-uridiceski-obazyvausim-garantiam-rossii-na-zapadnyh-
rubez?inheritRedirect=true&redirect=%2F; https://tass dot ru/politika/13422215; https://tass dot ru/politika/13416685;
202 https://www.mk dot ru/politics/2022/01/13/rossiya-otkazalas-ot-novogo-raunda-peregovorov-po-garantiyam-
bezopasnosti.html; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/815237; https://tass dot ru/politika/13417045; https://tvzvezda

dot ru/news/20221131442-MHlRp.html; https://tass dot ru/politika/13419349; https://tass dot ru/politika/13417645;
https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/13417803; https://russian.rt dot com/world/news/948667-zamglavy-mid-ryabkov-

ssha?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS; https://www.kommersant dot
ru/doc/5158706?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=amplifr_social
204 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20221131442-MHlRp.html
205 https://tass dot ru/politika/13417645; https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/13417803
207 https://www.reuters.com/world/us-senate-democrats-unveil-russia-sanctions-bill-washington-post-2022-01-12/
211 https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1794209/; https://tass dot ru/politika/13409641; https://tass dot
ru/politika/13410569; https://tass dot ru/politika/13410529; https://tass dot ru/politika/13410213; https://tass dot

ru/politika/13409909; https://tass dot ru/politika/13410147; https://tass dot ru/politika/13409925;
https://tass.ru/politika/13409909
218 https://tass dot ru/politika/13410529; https://tass dot ru/politika/13409925
221 https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-wendy-r-sherman-at-a-press-availability-2/
223 https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1481183951305719808dd
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1479420542847442944;
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1479842797100302336
225 https://function dot mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12403068@egNews
230 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20221111316-jfMPZ.html
231 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20221111226-BqO6S.html
233 https://www.rbc dot ru/society/11/01/2022/61dd55429a7947a02c94f1ea
235 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/us/politics/russia-ukraine-helicopters.html
236 https://www.state.gov/briefing-with-deputy-secretary-wendy-r-sherman-on-the-u-s-russia-strategic-stability-
dialogue/; https://mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1793525/

238 https://ria dot ru/20220110/peregovory-1767077316.html
239 https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/01/10/ryabkov/; https://tass dot ru/politika/13390085
240 https://tass dot ru/politika/13389965; https://tass dot ru/politika/13390585; https://tass dot ru/politika/13391119
241 https://tass dot ru/politika/13390267; https://tass dot ru/politika/13389757
242
https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-shermans-meeting-with-russian-deputy-foreign-minister-ryabkov/
243 https://tass dot ru/politika/13383293; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/814580
244 https://riafan dot ru/1585407-ryabkov-prizval-ssha-i-nato-proyavit-gibkost-na-peregovorah-s-rossiei-po-bezopasnosti
248 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prospects-dim-us-russia-start-tense-talks-over-ukraine-crisis-2022-01-10/
249 https://function dot mil dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12402440@egNews
250 https://uz.sputniknews dot ru/20220107/s-chem-pridetsya-stolknutsya-mirotvortsam-odkb---kalashnikov-
22095911.html
251 https://ria dot ru/20220106/odkb-1766809881.html

252 https://iz dot ru/1273627/aleksei-zabrodin/my-slishkom-dolgo-ugovarivali-nashikh-sobesednikov; https://www dot
mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1793236/
254 https://www dot mil.gov dot ua/news/2022/01/04/golovne-upravlinnya-rozvidki-ministerstva-oboroni-ukraini-
informue/
255 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67551; https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1793142/;
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/03/p5-statement-on-preventing-nuclear-war-
and-avoiding-arms-races/
257 https://tass dot com/defense/1383569
258 https://odkb-csto dot org/news/news_odkb/ucheni-grom-2021-spetspodrazdeleniy-antinarkoticheskikh-vedomstv-
gosudarstv-chlenov-odkb-proyde/#loaded; http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/61845; https://odkb-csto dot

org/news/news_odkb/v_podmoskove_proshlo_mezhdunarodnoe_antinarkoticheskoe_uchenie_odkb_grom_2017_v_k
hode_vypolneniya_uch/#loaded; https://tajikta dot tj/ru/news/v-tadzhikistane-zavershilis-ucheniya-odkb-grom-2015;
https://rg dot ru/2013/09/26/grom.html; https://jamestown.org/program/key-features-of-russias-grom-2019-nuclear-
exercise/
259 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gas-still-flowing-east-germany-poland-via-yamal-pipeline-2022-01-
02/
263 https://mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1792974/
265 https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus235918076/Josep-Borrell-Nichts-wird-ueber-uns-entschieden-ohne-dass-
wir-dabei-sind.html
266 http://redstar dot ru/krylataya-gvardiya-vsegda-na-peredovyh-pozitsiyah/
267
W%20CT%20December%202021.pdf, pg. 24
270 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112281032-Iuf0A.html
271 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112281531-OjxbO.html
272 https://www dot mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1792420/
273 https://www dot rbc.ru/politics/27/12/2021/61c9e6ae9a79473fa8241fde
274 https://www dot gazeta.ru/politics/news/2021/12/27/17071453.shtml
275 https://eng dot mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12400772@egNews
ru/news/bolee_10_tysjach_voennyh_rossii_nachali_vozvraschatsja_na_bazy_posle_uchenij_u_granitsy_s_ukrainoj-
544730/?from=rss; https://thehill.com/policy/international/587295-thousands-of-russian-troops-withdrawing-from-
ukraine-border-report; https://www.npr.org/2021/12/25/1067993247/some-russian-troops-reportedly-withdraw-from-
ukraine-border-area
280 https://president.gov dot ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-videozustrich-z-grupoyu-amerikans-72269
285 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1474080023774703618
287 https://rg dot ru/2021/12/23/mchs-otpravilo-v-donbass-ocherednuiu-kolonnu-s-gumpomoshchiu.html
288 https://yandex dot
ru/news/story/Kolonna_MCHS_Rossii_vyekhala_vDonbass_dlyadostavki_185_tonn_gumanitarnoj_pomoshhi--
e7acf7ef4d7e2cb5dce5734975b0968e?lang=ru&fan=1&stid=VpX5m6JaKdAzRUMJWEzy&t=1640266480&persistent_id
=175776093
289 https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13277945?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

291 https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1474088594595790860
292 https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/13278663; https://function.mil dot
295 https://meduza dot io/en/feature/2021/12/23/a-road-to-nowhere
301 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67402; https://ria dot ru/20211221/ukraina-1764715058.html
302 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20211222104-TO5LB.html
306 https://rg dot ru/2021/12/21/mid-rf-prokommentiroval-vozmozhnost-razmeshcheniia-iadernogo-oruzhiia-v-
belarusi.html
307 https://www.belta dot by/president/view/lukashenko-ne-iskljuchaet-razmeschenija-v-belarusi-rossijskogo-jadernogo-
oruzhija-472331-2021/
308 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/intervyu-mezhdunarodnomu-informacionnomu-agentstvu-rossiya-segodnya
309 https://russian.rt dot com/world/news/941057-lavrov-nato-krasnaya-liniya
310 https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790809/; https://mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/
311 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nord-stream-2-says-it-has-started-filling-second-line-with-natural-
gas-2021-12-17/
312 https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/5141559?fromtopmain1
314 https://riafan dot ru/1572358-peskov-zayavil-o-gotovnosti-rossii-k-peregovoram-po-garantiyam-bezopasnosti-s-ssha
315 https://eng.mil dot ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12398961@egNews
319 https://www.levada dot ru/2021/12/14/obostrenie-v-
donbasse/?fbclid=IwAR1UMd3zRu_zZ5zl2ckk3OG0L7vZ1ziP8X6ivACqeVmB1JkzwP8E--ehgXg;
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1470759146337230860?s=20
320 https://russian.rt dot com/world/news/937915-ukraina-g7-
zaharova?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS; https://tass dot ru/politika/13178675

321 https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1470746798482509833;
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1470740775034044425;
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1470871618956279811;
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1469607498730639364
https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/1468684037057351690
325 https://www dot unian.net/war/pod-voronezh-perebrosili-divizion-buk-v-seti-poyavilis-video-novosti-donbassa-
11636365.html ; https://www.unian dot ua/war/pid-voronezh-perekinuli-divizion-buk-u-merezhi-z-yavilis-video-novini-

donbasu-11636368.html ; https://meduza dot io/news/2021/12/09/conflict-intelligence-team-pod-voronezh-perebrosili-
divizion-zrk-buk; https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1468683134107635725
326 https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/1458570720737378307;
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1461799584506777604
328 https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4991520
329 https://www.mil.gov dot ua/news/2021/12/10/rosijska-federacziya-perekrila-blizko-70-akvatorii-azovskogo-morya-
vms-zs-ukraini-povidomlyae/

330 https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/11/russia-tried-to-make-a-crisis-out-of-an-aging-ukrainian-
transports-meandering-trip/?sh=5fb85c986cd6
331 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112101414-0uwIj.html https://lenta dot ru/news/2021/12/10/donbass_provocation/

339 https://ria dot ru/20211206/voyska-1762311153.html
341 https://riafan dot ru/1566363-lavrov-zayavil-o-negotovnosti-ukrainy-sledovat-minskim-soglasheniyam
342 https://riafan dot ru/1566054-medvedev-vruchil-partbilety-edinoi-rossii-glave-dnr-pushilinu-i-rukovoditelyu-lnr-
pasechniku; https://er dot ru/activity/news/dmitrij-medvedev-vruchil-partbilety-edinoj-rossii-glavam-regionov-

rukovodstvu-dnr-i-lnr-i-deputatam-gosdumy; https://novosti dot dn.ua/news/318262-glavy-dnr-i-lnr-poluchili-
partbilety-edinoj-rossii-iz-ruk-medvedeva
345 https://tass dot com/society/1369617
349 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-will-likely-punish-kyiv-not-holding-elections-russian-
controlled-eastern-ukraine
351 https://iz dot ru/1251863/2021-11-18/putin-ukazal-na-poverkhnostnoe-otnoshenie-zapada-k-preduprezhdeniiam-rf
354 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20211211217-aZXup.html
355 10,000 troops are approximately 13-20 battalion tactical groups, depending on the force structure. https://function.mil
dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12396540@egNews
358 https://t dot me/CITeam/2253
ru/news/cit_nashel_video_s_perebroskoj_voennoj_tehniki_iz_sibiri_v_storonu_ukrainskoj_granitsy-
543075/?from=rss
360 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67241; https://tvrain dot
ru/news/esli_na_territorii_ukrainy_vozniknut_udarnye_kompleksy_putin_nazval_krasnye_linii_dlja_rossii-
543011/?from=rss; https://www.forbes dot ru/society/447749-putin-nazval-krasnuu-liniu-v-otnoseniah-s-ukrainoj
361 https://novosti.dn dot ua/news/318099-v-partiyu-edinaya-rossiya-vstupila-pervaya-sotnya-zhitelej-ordlo;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-review-september-1-%E2%80%93-september-21-2021
362 https://novosti.dn dot ua/news/317175-edinaya-rossiya-gotovitsya-prinyat-v-svoi-ryady-chinovnikov-l-dnr
364 https://ria dot ru/20211128/vstrecha-1761166186.html
365 https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1464596659388784640
366 https://vpk dot name/en/500786_the-russian-military-transferred-units-of-the-58th-army-to-the-exercises-in-the-
crimea.html; https://medium.com/dfrlab/a-closer-look-at-the-recent-russian-build-up-in-crimea-75c3095a8122
368 https://mfa.gov dot ua/en/news/komentar-mzs-ukrayini-u-zvyazku-z-chergovim-vchinennyam-rf-mizhnarodno-
protipravnogo-diyannya-proti-suverenitetu-ukrayini
369 https://vsednr dot ru/v-respubliku-pribyvaet-104-y-gumanitarny/
370
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSNcwcF6mqw&ab_channel=%D0%92%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%9
2%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%B6; https://vestivrn dot ru/news/2021/11/25/na-yuge-
voronezhskoi-oblasti-nachnut-kruglosutochno-dezhurit-pogranichniki/
371 https://ria dot ru/20220113/donbass-1767649935.html

372 https://iz dot ru/1276588/2022-01-13/bespilotnik-obse-obstreliali-vblizi-podkontrolnoi-kievu-territorii-donbassa
373 https://ria dot ru/20220110/gorlovka-1767162580.html
374 https://lug-info dot com/news/vsu-razmestili-bronetehniku-u-naselennyh-punktov-v-zone-oos-narodnaya-miliciya
375 https://riafan dot ru/1583920-narodnaya-miliciya-lnr-boicy-vsu-razmestili-tanki-i-bronetransportery-bliz-poselka-
vrubovka
376 https://dnronline dot su/podrazdeleniya-vfu-vedut-razvedku-pri-pomoshhi-bespilotnikov-unm-dnr/
379 https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13346715
380 ttps://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13341137
381 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112291513-5eHEo.html
384 https://www.facebook.com/683459585129100/posts/2276274495847593/?d=n
387 https://mid-dnr dot su/ru/pages/news/v-donecke-predstaviteli-4-gosudarstv-obsudili-perspektivy-dalnejshego-
sotrudnichestva
388 https://novosti dot dn.ua/news/318292-pushilin-dopustil-obedinenie-dnr-i-lnr-v-budushhem
389 https://novosti dot dn.ua/news/318294-pushilin-priehal-v-moskvu-i-rasskazal-kak-mechtaet-o-novorossii;
https://denis-pushilin.ru/news/denis-pushilin-lyudi-prozhivayushhie-v-podkontrolnoj-ukraine-chasti-novorossii-zhdut-
prihoda-russkogo-mira/
390 https://riafan dot ru/1566134-pushilin-nazval-obostrenie-v-donbasse-odnim-iz-samyh-sereznyh-s-2014-2015-godov
391 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20211251556-6TUsq.html
392 https://novosti dot dn.ua/news/318135-dnr-snova-posylaet-signaly-o-povtornom-referendum
393 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-will-likely-punish-kyiv-not-holding-elections-russian-
controlled-eastern-ukraine
394 https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-warns-russia-over-ukraine-were-working-high-impact-sanctions-2022-
01-06/
395 https://mfa dot gov dot ua/news/dmitro-kuleba-ta-liz-trass-skoordinuvali-poziciyi-ukrayini-ta-velikoyi-britaniyi-na-
tli-agresivnih-dij-rf
397 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67352; https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-president-
putin-of-russia-13-december-2021
398 https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-g7-unity-liverpool/31604386.html;
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/liz-truss-hosts-g7-in-show-of-unity-against-global-aggressors
399 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-foreign-ministers-statement-on-russia-and-ukraine
401 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/osce-ministerial-council-2021-uk-foreign-secretary-liz-truss-met-russian-
foreign-minister-sergei-lavrov-in-stockholm
403 https://mfa dot gov.ua/news/liz-trass-zapevnila-dmitra-kulebu-v-gotovnosti-spoluchenogo-korolivstva-konkretnimi-
diyami-pidtrimuvati-suverenitet-i-teritorialnu-cilisnist-ukrayini
404 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-announces-future-soldier-for-the-british-army;
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-army-returns-to-germany-in-face-of-russian-threat-bhs7lmnsv
405 https://www.ft.com/content/1c56235e-dcc6-4505-851c-8e904b46339b
406 https://news.sky.com/story/british-army-restructure-sees-hundreds-of-tanks-and-troops-return-to-germany-after-
withdrawal-less-than-a-year-ago-12478388
407
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1034478/CS_Ukrai
ne_1.2021_Framework_Agreement_Credit_Support_Navy.pdf ; https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/fregat-vms-ukrayiny-
domovlenist-pro-budivnytstvo-ye-v-ugodi-z-velykoyu-brytaniyeyu/
foreign-affairs-of-poland-zbigniew-rau/; https://sports.yahoo.com/u-envoy-warns-escalation-amid-162824303.html
411 https://sports.yahoo.com/u-envoy-warns-escalation-amid-162824303.html

412 https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-joe-scarborough-mika-brzezinksi-and-willie-geist-of-morning-
joe-on-msnbc/
413 https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-shermans-meeting-with-french-german-italian-and-uk-counterparts/
414 https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-shermans-meeting-with-chief-of-staff-for-the-president-of-the-european-
commission-seibert/
415 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-czech-foreign-minister-lipavsky/
416 https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-shermans-meeting-with-european-external-action-service-secretary-general-
sannino/
417 https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-shermans-meeting-with-the-eu-political-and-security-committee/
418 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-dutch-foreign-minister-hoekstra/
419 https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-january-11-2022/
420 https://twitter.com/DeputySecState/status/1480859005048213506;
https://twitter.com/DeputySecState/status/1480849322489040897
421 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-europe-solidarity-russia/31649277.html
422 https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/10/politics/us-russia-ukraine-meetings-geneva-intl/index.html
423 https://riafan dot ru/1586144-ssha-postavlyayut-ukraine-oruzhie-na-fone-peregovorov-s-rf-o-garantiyakh-
bezopasnosti
424 https://mfa dot gov dot ua/news/dmitro-kuleba-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-entoni-blinkenom-ssha-gotovi-i-nadali-
konkretnimi-diyami-zmicnyuvati-bezpeku-ukrayini; https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-ukrainian-
foreign-minister-kuleba-2/
425 https://eeas.europa dot eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/109457/transatlantic-cooperation-russia-and-
ukraine-high-representative-josep-borrell-spoke-us_en; https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-eu-high-
representative-borrell-2/
426 https://apnews.com/article/health-europe-russia-ukraine-united-states-3a67d15e41d5ce0a2a2cbbdcbe66731a
427 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-worried-cruz-nord-stream-2-sanction-plan-would-undermine-
united-front-2022-01-06/
428 https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2890060/readout-of-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-austins-
call-with-russian-minister-of-def/source/GovDelivery/
429 https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-german-foreign-minister-annalena-baerbock-at-a-joint-press-
availability/
430 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/04/statement-by-nsc-spokesperson-emily-
horne-on-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivans-call-with-nordic-counterparts/
431 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-the-bucharest-nine/
432 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-turkish-foreign-minister-cavusoglu-5/
433 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67487; https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-
briefings/2021/12/30/background-press-call-on-president-bidens-call-with-president-putin-of-the-russian-federation/
434 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/30/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-
psaki-on-president-bidens-phone-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/
435 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-dzhozefom-baj-72345;
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/02/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-
on-president-bidens-call-with-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-of-ukraine/
436 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-canadian-foreign-minister-joly-2/
horne-on-president-bidens-upcoming-phone-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/; https://tass dot

com/politics/1382809.
438 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-ukrainian-president-zelenskyy-3/
439 https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2021/12/28/uss-harry-truman-carrier-strike-group-stays-in-
mediterranean-amid-ukraine-russia-fears/
440 https://twitter.com/steffanwatkins/status/1473686835163545608
441 https://www.seymourjohnson.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/306524/335th-fighter-squadron/
443 https://www.jcs.mil/Media/News/News-Display/Article/2882155/readout-of-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-staff-
gen-mark-a-milleys-phone-call/
444 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/us/politics/russia-ukraine-cyberattacks.html
445 https://www.mil.gov dot ua/en/news/2021/12/15/ukraine-and-the-united-states-have-achieved-unprecedented-
dynamics-in-high-level-defense-contacts/
446 https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790416/;
447 https://twitter.com/USNavyEurope/status/1470989618061488131

448 https://mfa dot gov.ua/news/dmitro-kuleba-proviv-zustrich-iz-pomichniceyu-derzhsekretarya-ssha-karen-donfrid-
naperedodni-yiyi-vizitu-do-moskvi
449 https://eurasiantimes dot com/us-spy-plane-flies-close-to-russia-a-day-after-su-27-fighter-jets/;
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1469589008753774593
451 https://function dot mil dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12398059@egNews
452 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/09/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-
the-leaders-of-the-bucharest-nine-eastern-flank-nato-allies/
453 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/09/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-
president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine/
454 https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/120721_Nuland_Testimony1.pdf
455 https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/07/politics/nuland-sfrc-us-russia-ukraine/index.html
456 https://www.wral.com/russian-military-capacity-on-ukraines-border-is-on-a-more-lethal-scale-than-2014-crimea-
invasion-us-official-says/20022582/
458 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/07/readout-of-president-bidens-video-call-
with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/
459 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/07/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-call-
with-european-allies-2/
460 https://www.president dot gov.ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-entoni-blinke-71905
https://interfax dot com.ua/news/general/784333.html

gen-mark-a-milleys-virtual-mee/; https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_189603.htm
462 https://mfa.gov dot ua/news/dmitro-kuleba-ta-entoni-blinken-proveli-peregovori-shchodo-vtilennya-paketu-
strimuvannya-rf-vid-podalshoyi-agresiyi
463 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-ukrainian-foreign-minister-kuleba-3/
464 https://mfa.gov dot ua/news/dmitro-kuleba-ta-entoni-blinken-proveli-peregovori-shchodo-vtilennya-paketu-
465 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-ukrainian-foreign-minister-kuleba-3/
466 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-russian-foreign-minister-lavrov-2/
468 https://twitter.com/USNavyEurope/status/1463770443970752512
470 https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-navy-receives-two-former-us-coast-guard-patrol-boats-2021-11-23/
gen-mark-a-milleys-phone-call/
473 https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/22/politics/us-considering-weaponry-ukraine/index.html
474 https://www.state.gov/imposition-of-further-sanctions-in-connection-with-nord-stream-2/
475 https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2848132/austin-us-will-work-with-ukraine-allies-to-
counter-russian-aggression/
476 https://www dot president.gov dot ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-dzhastinom-tr-72369
477 https://www.mil dot gov.ua/news/2021/12/03/oleksij-reznikov-kanadi-ta-zustrivsya-z-nachalnikom-shtabu-oboroni-
zs-kanadi/
478 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-prijnyav-radnikiv-lideriv-franciyi-ta-ni-72365;
https://rus.lb dot ua/news/2022/01/11/502806_zelenskiy_zayavil_gotovnosti.html

479 https://www.vedomosti dot ru/politics/news/2021/12/07/899311-ssha-normandskomu-formatu
480 https://nv dot ua/world/geopolitics/peskov-ocenil-vozmozhnost-vstrechi-normandskoy-chetverki-do-uhoda-merkel-
poslednie-novosti-50186062.html
481 https://www.dw dot com/ru/vice-kancler-frg-habek-ne-iskljuchaet-ostanovku-severnogo-potoka-2/a-60292160
482 https://www.mil.gov dot ua/news/2021/12/30/korabli-vms-ukraini-ta-franczii-proveli-spilne-trenuvannya-tipu-
passex-v-akvatorii-chornogo-morya/
487 https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/eu-leaders-consider-new-sanctions-against-russian-surprises-
2021-12-16/
488 https://www.pravda.com dot ua/news/2021/12/16/7317632/

489 https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/prezident-ukrayini-proviv-zustrich-z-federalnim-kanclerom-ni-72065;
https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/glava-derzhavi-proviv-zustrich-z-prezidentom-franciyi-72069;
https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/volodimir-zelenskij-obgovoriv-z-federalnim-kanclerom-nimechc-72073
491 https://www.mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790350/; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-says-
russia-will-face-massive-consequences-if-it-invades-ukraine-2021-12-14/
492 https://www.ft.com/content/1336c9be-f1c9-4545-9f85-3b07fcb746d6; https://espreso dot tv/minoboroni-ukraini-
zvinuvachue-nimechchinu-u-blokuvanni-postachannya-zbroi-nato
493 https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211212-no-green-light-for-nord-stream-pipeline-if-any-ukraine-
escalation-germany
494 https://www.mid dot ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4935329;
https://www.mid dot ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4935164

495 https://www.politico.eu/article/france-warns-russia-ukraine-serious-consequences/
496 https://www.dailymaverick.co dot za/article/2021-11-21-france-warns-of-grave-consequences-if-russia-invades-
ukraine/
497 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-energy-regulator-suspends-nord-stream-2-certification-makes-
demands-2021-11-16/
498 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/16/germany-suspends-approval-for-nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline
499 https://www.auswaertiges-amt dot de/en/newsroom/news/-/2496138
500 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/baltics-talks-increase-nato-troops-their-soil-estonian-pm-2022-01-12/
501 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_190666.htm;
https://twitter.com/DeputySecState/status/1481245216287838208
502 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/world/europe/us-russia-europe-ukraine-nato.html?searchResultPosition=1
503 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/10/usa-russia-ukraine-talks-nato-attack-invasion-avert-war-
vladimir/; https://economictimes.indiatimes dot com/news/defence/nato-chief-warns-russia-of-severe-costs-if-ukraine-

attacked/articleshow/88811472.cms
504 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_190508.htm?selectedLocale=en;
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_190509.htm?selectedLocale=en
505 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/europe-s-energy-supply-crisis-has-the-eu-at-the-mercy-of-
putin-and-the-weather
506 https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-borrell-visit-russia-tensions/31637734.html; https://www.euronews dot
com/2022/01/04/borrell-to-reiterate-eu-support-to-kyiv-during-visit-to-eastern-ukraine-as-us-russia-talks
507 https://www.ft.com/content/28e104d4-bee1-4685-acd1-ff7cd0186ddf
509 https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus235918076/Josep-Borrell-Nichts-wird-ueber-uns-entschieden-ohne-dass-
wir-dabei-sind.html
512 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-says-ceasefire-agreement-reached-eastern-ukraine-2021-12-22/
514 https://www.ukrinform dot net/rubric-defense/3376078-donbas-update-two-ukrainian-soldiers-wounded-amid-six-
ceasefire-breaches-by-enemy.html
515 https://www.dn dot se/sverige/ob-sverige-har-hojt-sin-militara-beredskap/
gen-mark-a-milleys-meeting-wit/
517 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-eu-high-representative-borrell/;
https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/109292/european-security-architecture-high-
representative-josep-borrell-spoke-us-secretary-state_en
518 https://www.welt dot de/politik/ausland/article235806816/Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt-Nato-versetzt-Krisenkraefte-
in-erhoehte-Einsatzbereitschaft.html?icid=search.product.onsitesearch
519 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm
520 https://usun.usmission.gov/joint-statement-following-russias-arria-formula-meeting/
521 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_190373.htm
522 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_190261.htm?selectedLocale=en
523 https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/volodimir-zelenskij-pid-chas-vizitu-do-bryusselya-proviv-zus-72045;
https://interfax.com dot ua/news/general/786105.html

524 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_189146.htm

525 https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13363009; https://interfax.com dot ua/news/general/790251.html;
https://rus.lsm dot lv/statja/novosti/politika/latvija-otpravit-oruzhie-ukraine--glava-minoboroni.a437633/;
https://www.ukrinform dot net/rubric-defense/3381078-latvia-will-send-weapons-to-ukraine-defense-minister.html
526 https://news.err dot ee/1608455861/prime-minister-nato-allies-do-not-underestimate-russia; https://tass dot
ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13356129
529 https://www dot ukrinform dot net/rubric-defense/3378320-estonia-plans-to-provide-javelin-missiles-howitzers-to-
ukraine.html; https://www.err dot ee/1608451673/eesti-plaanib-anda-ukrainale-rakette-ja-suurtukke

530 https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-approves-sale-javelin-missiles-lithuania-russia-tensions-
build-2021-12-21/; https://news.liga dot net/politics/news/litva-pokupaet-u-ssha-tri-sotni-raket-javelin-na-125-mln

531 https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/ukrayina-litva-j-polsha-mayut-spilni-poziciyi-ta-pidhodi-do-72193
532 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/spilna-zayava-prezidenta-ukrayini-prezidenta-litovskoyi-resp-72173
533 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/67359; https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/president-niinisto-
spoke-with-russian-president-putin-3/
535 https://mfa.gov dot ua/news/u-lucku-vidbulasya-zustrich-nacionalnih-koordinatoriv-krayin-lyublinskogo-trikutnika
536 https://jamestown.org/program/lithuania-poland-and-ukraine-inaugurate-lublin-triangle/
537 https://www dot mil.govdot ua/news/2021/12/08/ukraina-litva-i-gruziya-domovilisya-pro-spivrobitnicztvo-u-sferi-
kiberbezpeki/
538
https://www dot mil.govdot ua/news/2021/12/08/oleksij-reznikov-obgovoriv-z-ministrom-naczionalnoi-oboroni-litvi-

arvidasom-anushauskasom-oboronne-spivrobitnicztvo/
539 https://ac.nato.int/archive/2021/polish-f16s-hit-the-ground-running-with-first-alpha-scramble
540 https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/dmytro-kuleba-and-gabrielius-landsbergis-discuss-joint-counteraction-ukraine-and-
lithuania-threats-region
541 https://www.president.gov dot ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-prezidenta-ukrayini-prezidenta-litovskoyi-resp-71837
https://www.president.gov dot ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-vzyav-uchast-u-pershih-peremovinah-u-for-71833

542 https://mfa.gov dot ua/en/news/dmytro-kuleba-and-eva-maria-liimets-agree-joint-opposition-ukraine-and-estonia-
aggressive-actions-russian-federation
543 https://tvpworld dot com/57139836/bucharest-nine-call-for-strengthening-natos-eastern-flank;
https://www.thefirstnews dot com/article/b9-group-of-defence-ministers-call-for-strengthening-of-natos-flank-26369;

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2854469/deputy-secretary-of-defense-kathleen-h-hicks-
addresses-the-bucharest-nine-defen/
544 https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2854469/deputy-secretary-of-defense-kathleen-h-hicks-
addresses-the-bucharest-nine-defen/
545 https://mfa dot gov.ua/news/komentar-ministra-zakordonnih-sprav-ukrayini-dmitra-kulebi-za-pidsumkami-
zasidannya-postijnoyi-radi-obsye-13-sichnya
546 https://www dot mil dot gov.ua/news/2022/01/11/golovne-upravlinnya-rozvidki-ukraini-informue/
547 https://ssu.gov dot ua/novyny/u-hrudni-2021-roku-sbu-zablokuvala-ponad-50-kiberatak-na-ukrainski-orhany-vlady
548 https://www dot mil.gov dot ua/news/2022/01/05/kerivniki-voennih-rozvidok-ukraini-ta-tureczkoi-respubliki-
domovilis-pro-pogliblennya-spivpraczi/; https://qha.com dot tr/haberler/guvenlik/ukrayna-ile-turkiye-askeri-istihbarat-

is-birligini-artiracak/365385/; https://www.dha dot com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-askeri-istihbarat-baskani-turk-mevkidasiyla-
bir-araya-geldi/haber-1870966
549 https://mfa dot gov dot ua/news/dmitro-kuleba-domovivsya-z-novim-glavoyu-mzs-chehiyi-pro-spilni-kroki-zadlya-
550 https://inforesist dot org/ukraina-zapretila-rossijskim-korablyam-peremeshhatsya-v-svoih-vnutrennih-vodah/
551 https://www dot mil.gov.ua/news/2021/12/28/golovne-upravlinnya-rozvidki-ministerstva-oboroni-ukraini-
informue/; https://www dot mil.gov.ua/news/2021/12/28/golovne-upravlinnya-rozvidki-ministerstva-oboroni-ukraini-

informue/
552 https://www dot president.gov dot ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-videozustrich-z-grupoyu-amerikans-
72269; https://www.ukrinform dot net/rubric-polytics/3375512-zelensky-us-senators-congressmen-discuss-support-for-

ukraine.html
553 https://focus dot ua/politics/501541-andrey-ermak-o-peregovorah-s-rossiey-planah-po-donbassu-i-lichnoy-borbe
555 https://www dot mil.gov.ua/news/2021/12/23/vijskovij-oblik-vijskovozobovyazanih-zhinok-vidbuvatimetsya-planovo-
postupovo-z-urahuvannyam-osoblivostej-perehidnogo-periodu/; https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-women-register-
military/

556 https://petition.president.gov dot
ua/petition/130110?fbclid=IwAR2BzTYOuI6rX8AT5ZAAxTtnF8UGygUnyrZg_6LqW7cEfbz9U0Ne82bWpXU
557 https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3373750-bila-kordoniv-ukraini-znahodatsa-122-tisaci-rosijskih-vijskovih-
danilov.html
558 https://tass dot com/world/1378705; https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/ukrayina-proponuye-kroki-dlya-
aktivizaciyi-mirnogo-vregulyuv-72217
559 https://www dot mil.gov dot ua/news/2021/12/22/ukraina-proponue-kroki-dlya-aktivizaczii-mirnogo-
vregulyuvannya-na-donbasi-j-gotova-do-peremovin-u-riznih-formatah-–-volodimir-zelenskij/
560 https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3372244-new-navy-boats-may-arrive-in-berdyansk-port-through-kerch-
strait-commander.html; https://enovosty dot com/news/news_society/full/2012-riski-rastut-komanduyushhij-vms-

ocenil-posledstviya-dlya-rf-agressii-protiv-ukrainy
561 https://www.facebook.com/MinInfra.UA/photos/pcb.4820907071291445/4820902637958555
562 https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/naval-warfare/ukraine-to-acquire-danish-mpv80-ships/;
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/12/ukraine-denmark-mou-for-danish-ship-design-and-technology/
563 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-na-zustrichi-z-yensom-stoltenbergom-bulo-72109;
https://www.unian dot net/world/v-nato-ne-vidyat-priznakov-umensheniya-voennogo-prisutstviya-rossii-na-granice-s-

ukrainoy-stoltenberg-novosti-mira-11644483.html; https://zikua dot
news/ru/news/2021/12/16/gensek_nato_stoltenberg_anonsiroval_novuyu_koncepciyu_alyansa_i_zayavil_ob_uglublen
ii_sotrudnichestva_s_ukrainoy_1019531; https://russian.rt dot com/ussr/news/939357-nato-ukraina-voennaya-
pomosch?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS; https://www.unian dot net/politics/stoltenberg-
ukraina-poluchaet-pomoshch-v-oblasti-oborony-ne-tolko-cherez-agentstvo-nato-novosti-ukraina-11644567.html
564 https://www.president dot gov.ua/ru/news/prezident-ukrayini-u-bryusseli-proviv-zustrich-z-prezidentom-72053
565 https://www.repubblica do
it/esteri/2021/12/13/news/zelenskyy_la_russia_minaccia_l_ucraina_per_ricattare_l_occidente_fateci_entrare_nella_n
ato_-330093350/
566 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-ukrayina-maye-rozrahovuvati-na-svoyu-arm-71981;
https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/ukrayinske-suspilstvo-ne-pidtrimuye-sprob-derzhavnogo-perevo-71985;

https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/glava-derzhavi-mi-zrobili-vse-shob-rosiya-sogodni-skazala-sh-71989.
567 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/ukrayinske-suspilstvo-ne-pidtrimuye-sprob-derzhavnogo-perevo-71985
568 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/glava-derzhavi-mi-zrobili-vse-shob-rosiya-sogodni-skazala-sh-71989
569 https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/glava-derzhavi-mi-zrobili-vse-shob-rosiya-sogodni-skazala-sh-71989;
https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/ukrayinske-suspilstvo-ne-pidtrimuye-sprob-derzhavnogo-perevo-71985;

https://www.president.gov dot ua/ru/news/volodimir-zelenskij-ukrayina-maye-rozrahovuvati-na-svoyu-arm-71981
570 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/prezident-ukrayini-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-prezidentom-fr-71973

571 https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/12/08/russians-have-120000-troops-on-its-border-increased-intel-
gathering-ukraine-ministry-says/
572 https://www dot mil.gov.ua/news/2021/12/07/golovne-upravlinnya-rozvidki-ministerstva-oboroni-ukraini-informue/
573 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-ukraines-defence-minister-urges-military-support-from-canada-us-
and/
574 Canada’s training mission to Ukraine has 200 instructors. Reznikov’s statement likely was not literal but an expression
of a general desire to increase Canada’s training mission.

575 https://www dot ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3363449-not-to-inflame-situation-canada-wont-send-additional-
instructors-to-ukraine.html; https://www.theglobeandmail dot com/canada/article-evening-update-canada-has-no-

plans-to-deploy-more-troops-to-ukraine-as/; https://www dot theglobeandmail.com/world/article-canada-has-no-plans-
to-deploy-additional-troops-to-ukraine-chief-of/
576 https://www dot rada.gov.ua/news/Novyny/217341.html
577 https://www.dw.com/uk/zahroza-vtorhnennia-kyiv-narakhuvav-94-tysiachi-viiskovykh-rf-dovkola-ukrainy/a-
60006354; https://wwwd dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3362263-masstabna-eskalacia-z-boku-rosii-mozliva-naprikinci-

sicna-reznikov.html
578 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZw0Is_g2PE
579 https://www dot unian.ua/war/u-krimu-ta-na-kordonah-ukrajini-rf-zoseredila-mayzhe-100-tisyach-viyskovih-
reznikov-novini-donbasu-11630143.html
580 https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3362263-masstabna-eskalacia-z-boku-rosii-mozliva-naprikinci-sicna-
reznikov.html
581 https://gordonua dot com/ukr/news/war/ukrajina-perehodit-do-praktichnogo-etapu-budivnitstva-dvoh-vijskovo-
morskih-baz-u-spivpratsi-z-velikoju-britanijeju-1584420.html
582 https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-economy/3362382-u-protiraketnij-programi-osnovna-stavka-mae-buti-na-
vitciznanij-opk-reznikov.html

583 https://www.president.gov dot ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-dzhastinom-tr-71841
584 https://www dot president.gov.ua/ru/news/glava-derzhavi-mi-ne-zmozhemo-zupiniti-vijnu-ta-povernuti-te-71813
585 https://interfax.com dot ua/news/political/783132.html
587 https://www.mil.gov dot ua/news/2021/11/29/czentr-operativnogo-informuvannya-povidomlyae/
588 https://www.pravda.com dot ua/rus/news/2021/11/29/7315627/
589 https://www.pravda.com dot ua/rus/news/2021/11/26/7315325/
590 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/rosiya-namagayetsya-deaktualizuvati-normandskij-format-ale-u-71729
591 https://www.unian dot net/politics/risk-vtorzheniya-rossii-v-ukrainu-putin-hochet-dogovoritsya-s-baydenom-snbo-
novosti-ukraina-11622091.html
592 https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/glava-derzhavi-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-kanclerom-nimechch-71697
593 https://armyinform.com dot ua/2022/01/06/dyvizion-s-300-zastupyv-na-bojove-cherguvannya-v-systemi-ppo-na-
pivdni-ukrayiny/; https://news.depo dot ua/ukr/news/na-pivdni-ukraini-zastupiv-na-cherguvannya-noviy-divizion-s-

300-202201101410687
594 https://www.facebook.com/JointForcesCommandAFU/posts/1401122226956753
595 https://dpsu.gov dot ua/ua/news/%20VIDEO%20-Zima-ne-pereshkoda-Prodovzhuyutsya-zahodi-z-ukriplennya-
kordonu-na-zagrozlivih-napryamah/
596 https://www.rbc dot ua/rus/news/vsu-provodyat-ucheniya-protivotankovyh-podrazdeleniy-1639558639.html;
https://ru.krymr dot com/a/news-ukrainskie-voennye-ucheniya-yug/31609991.html

597 https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-society/3368034-v-ukraini-posilili-ohoronu-mostiv-ta-obektiv-kriticnoi-
infrastrukturi.html
598 https://www.facebook.com/DPSUkraine/posts/2066574936827577
599 https://www.golosameriki.com/a/tb-ukraine-belarus-border/6317118.html
600 https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/2074706646031915
601 https://www.osce.org/files/2021-11-23%20Daily%20Report.pdf?itok=96690
602 https://www dot mil.by/ru/news/143153/
603 https://president dot gov dot by/ru/events/poseshchenie-hrama-prepodobnyh-optinskih-starcev-v-minske
604 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/soveshchanie-po-voprosam-realizacii-istoricheskoy-politiki
605 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/telefonnye-razgovory-s-prezidentom-rossiyskoy-federacii-vladimirom-
putinym-i-prezidentom-kazahstana-kasym-zhomartom-tokaevym
606 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/soveshchanie-po-voprosam-realizacii-istoricheskoy-politiki
607 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/aleksandr-lukashenko-podpisal-zakon-o-genocide-belorusskogo-naroda
608 https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/143030/; https://reform dot by/289469-belarusskie-i-rossijskie-letchiki-proveli-
ocherednoe-sovmestnoe-patrulirovanie; https://russian.rt dot com/ussr/news/945794-granica-patrulirovanie-

aviaciya?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
609 https://president dot gov dot by/ru/events/podpisan-ukaz-no515-o-prieme-v-grazhdanstvo-respubliki-belarus
610 https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/142878/
612 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112281129-oYzbt.html
613 https://reform dot by/287170-lukashenko-ugrozhaet-perekryt-tranzit-mezhdu-ukrainoj-i-litvoj
614 https://www.belta dot by/society/view/sovmestnaja-shtabnaja-trenirovka-nachalas-v-vooruzhennyh-silah-belarusi-
474660-2021/
616 https://rus.lb dot ua/world/2021/12/13/500828_lukashenko_prigrozil_perekrit.html
617 https://lenta dot ru/news/2021/12/13/hm/
618 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59246899
620 https://mil.in dot ua/uk/news/120-ta-mehanizovana-brygada-bilorusi-otrymala-rosijski-btr-82a/
621 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/telefonnyy-razgovor-s-prezidentom-rossii-vladimirom-putinym-1639137402
622 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/v-belorusskoe-grazhdanstvo-prinyaty-448-grazhdan-ukrainy
623 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_SHNVNDyDE
625 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/rassmotrenie-kadrovyh-voprosov-1638780470
626 https://www dot mil dot by/ru/news/142140/
627 https://www.golosameriki.com/a/svoboda-belarus-defense-ministry-blame-ukraine-for-violating-the-
border/6340135.html; https://novosti dot dn.ua/news/318271-belarus-obvinila-ukrainskih-pilotov-v-narushenii-

granitsy-vo-vremya-uchenij-v-gospogransluzhbe

628 https://www.pravda dot com.ua/news/2021/12/5/7316321/; https://www.golosameriki.com/a/svoboda-belarus-
defense-ministry-blame-ukraine-for-violating-the-border/6340135.html; https://www.eurointegration dot
com.ua/news/2021/12/5/7131172/
629 https://russian dot rt.com/ussr/article/935500-belorussiya-ukraina-narushenie-granica
630 https://ria dot ru/20211202/lukashenko-1761767010.html
632 https://www.belta dot by/president/view/lukashenko-ob-ukraine-strana-nahoditsja-pod-vneshnim-upravleniem-
472673-2021/
633 https://president.gov dot by/ru/events/vstrecha-s-gubernatorom-astrahanskoy-oblasti-rossii-igorem-babushkinym
634 https://vayar.mil dot by/news/142064/
637 https://vayar.mil dot by/news/142081/; https://vayar.mil dot by/news/142079/; https://vayar.mil dot
by/news/142078/; https://vayar.mil dot by/news/142077/; https://vayar.mil dot by/news/142075/; https://vayar.mil dot

by/news/142074/; https://vayar.mil dot by/news/142073/; https://vayar.mil dot by/news/142063/; https://vayar.mil
dot by/news/142083/
638 https://www.belta dot by/president/view/lukashenko-ne-iskljuchaet-razmeschenija-v-belarusi-rossijskogo-jadernogo-
oruzhija-472331-2021/
639 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/intervyu-mezhdunarodnomu-informacionnomu-agentstvu-rossiya-segodnya
640 https://president dot gov.by/ru/events/telefonnyy-razgovor-s-prezidentom-rossii-vladimirom-putinym-1638215331
641 https://www.interfax dot ru/world/805489; https://president.gov dot by/ru/events/coveshchanie-po-voprosam-
voennoy-bezopasnosti
644 https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/142016/ ; https://www.belta dot by/politics/view/bespomoschnost-i-bessilie-
hrenin-o-prichinah-aktivnoj-militarizatsii-v-sosednih-stranah-472089-2021/
645 https://motolko dot help/ru-news/belarus-s-rossiej-provedet-ucheniya-na-granicze-s-ukrainoj/
647 https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/141967/; https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/141981/
649https://charter97 dot org/ru/news/2015/11/23/179668/
650 https://rg dot ru/2018/06/03/vopreki-zabluzhdeniiam-bolota-neobhodimy-dlia-sohraneniia-ekosistemy.html
651 https://infocenter.bahna dot ngo/ru/gidrologiya/kak-zamerzayut-bolota
652 https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@623549/climate
653 https://geosfera dot org/evropa/2802-pinskie-bolota.html
654 https://www.reuters.com/world/state-dept-says-blinken-meet-russias-lavrov-thursday-stockholm-2021-12-01/
655 https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-coalition-talks-deal-election-eu/; https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-
olaf-scholz-on-track-to-succeed-angela-merkel-as-chancellor-
11637749450?st=hj7flu5wx1a5ziq&reflink=article_copyURL_share
656 https://www.kommersant dot
ru/doc/5103330?query=%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%D0%91%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%
B5%D0%BD
657 https://www.consilium.europa dot eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2021/12/15/
658 https://riafan dot ru/1560000-itogovaya-press-konferenciya-putina-mozhet-sostoyatsya-23-dekabrya
horne-on-president-bidens-upcoming-phone-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/
662 https://www.belta dot by/president/view/lukashenko-v-janvare-obratitsja-s-poslaniem-k-narodu-i-parlamentu-
473321-2021/
663 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_190472.htm
664 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112281032-Iuf0A.html
666 https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112281032-Iuf0A.htmlhttps://tvzvezda dot ru/news/202112281032-Iuf0A.html
667 https://www.unian dot net/politics/risk-vtorzheniya-rossii-v-ukrainu-putin-hochet-dogovoritsya-s-baydenom-snbo-
novosti-ukraina-11622091.html
668 https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B0;
https://gogov dot ru/srr/Voronezh; https://gogov dot ru/srr/Voronezh; https://tr dot ru/news/3181-vesennyaya-

rasputica-2019-kogda-dorogi-perekroyut-dlya-gruzovogo-transporta

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Indicators and Thresholds for Russian Military Operations in Ukraine and/or Belarus

Institute for the Study of War, Russia Team

New updates to this publication:

Russian Representative to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

1 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Russian Proxy Activity

The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) accused Ukrainian forces of shooting an

US Permanent Representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in

2 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman discussed Russia’s military buildup on

Ukrainian Political Activity

Kremlin Narratives of the Day

3 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Russia is setting conditions to conduct military operations against Ukraine and/or in

Possible Russian military actions:

4 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

5 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

6 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Information Domain Indicators

Kremlin Narratives / Memes of the Day

10 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

12 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

- A known Russian information operations asset in Ukraine suggested on

- Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov threatened Ukraine on

- Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused NATO of increasing its military

- Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Commander Alexander Dvornikov said

- Kremlin and proxy republic narratives about alleged Ukrainian weapon

15 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

- Zakharova said on December 9 that negotiations with Ukraine for a peaceful

- Russian Permanent Representative to the Organization for Security Cooperation

- Zakharova said Russia issued a protest note to the US embassy in Moscow on

- Russian news agency TASS published an article on December 7 claiming that

16 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

- Zakharova responded to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s

- Kremlin-sponsored media conducted a coordinated information campaign

17 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

18 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

- Lukashevich accused Ukraine of attacking freedom of speech in Ukraine on

19 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

- Fyodor Lukyanov—a prominent Kremlin foreign policy thinker—published an

- Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov announced

Updates on Key States’ Activities

Russian Representative to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov characterized the January 9-13 summits as

21 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko threatened a “military-

NATO collectively denounced Russia’s “non-starter” security demands but

22 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Commander Alexander Dvornikov

Russian Baltic Fleet minesweeper George Kurbatov permanently transferred

The Kremlin demanded the US quickly advance security negotiations on January

23 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) announced elements of the 20th

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu temporarily restricted Russian military

Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a Russian Security Council meeting on

24 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) announced on January 10 that SMD

Russia’s Caspian Flotilla announced on January 10 that over 1,000 Flotilla

25 Institute for the Study of War ©2021