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    Aranaydo Week 2

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    Carl Harold Aranaydo
    This document contains information on various forecasting techniques including exponential smoothing and regression analysis. It provides sample data on demand for products over multiple time periods and uses the techniques to generate forecasts. The forecasts are evaluated using metrics like mean absolute percentage deviation and mean squared error. Adjustments are made to the exponential smoothing model to include trends and seasonal factors. A linear regression model is also fitted to sales data and used to make forecasts that account for seasonality.

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    Aranaydo Week 2

    Uploaded by

    Carl Harold Aranaydo
    10 views12 pages
    This document contains information on various forecasting techniques including exponential smoothing and regression analysis. It provides sample data on demand for products over multiple time periods and uses the techniques to generate forecasts. The forecasts are evaluated using metrics like mean absolute percentage deviation and mean squared error. Adjustments are made to the exponential smoothing model to include trends and seasonal factors. A linear regression model is also fitted to sales data and used to make forecasts that account for seasonality.

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    This document contains information on various forecasting techniques including exponential smoothing and regression analysis. It provides sample data on demand for products over multiple time periods and uses the techniques to generate forecasts. The forecasts are evaluated using metrics like mean absolute percentage deviation and mean squared error. Adjustments are made to the exponential smoothing model to include trends and seasonal factors. A linear regression model is also fitted to sales data and used to make forecasts that account for seasonality.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    10 views12 pages

    Aranaydo Week 2

    Uploaded by

    Carl Harold Aranaydo
    This document contains information on various forecasting techniques including exponential smoothing and regression analysis. It provides sample data on demand for products over multiple time periods and uses the techniques to generate forecasts. The forecasts are evaluated using metrics like mean absolute percentage deviation and mean squared error. Adjustments are made to the exponential smoothing model to include trends and seasonal factors. A linear regression model is also fitted to sales data and used to make forecasts that account for seasonality.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 12

    Part I

    1. Delphi Method
    2. Multiple Regression
    3. Trend
    4. Average Error
    5. Mean Absolute Percent Deviation (MAPD)
    6. Mean Squared Error (MSE)
    7. Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
    8. Time Frame
    9. Cumulative Error
    10. Seasonal Factor
    Month Demand (A) MA-3(F) Error | Error | MAD
    February 520 - -
    March 490 - -
    April 550 -
    May 580 540 40 40
    June 600 576.6667 23.33333 23.33333 54.66667
    July 420 533.3333 -113.3333 113.3333
    August 510 510 0 0
    September 610 513.3333 96.66667 96.66667
    October - 513.33 273.3333

    Month Demand (A) WMA Error | Error | MAD


    February 520 - -
    March 490 - -
    April 550 - -
    May 580 520 60 60
    June 600 540 60 60 80
    July 420 576.6667 -156.6667 156.6667
    August 510 533.3333 -23.33333 23.33333
    September 610 510 100 100
    October - 542 400

    Comparison of Mean Absolute Deviation Error


    Tool MAD
    MA-3 71.3333
    a=0.2 16.6304
    Number of Enrolled in OM
    Semester (A) MA-3 Forecast (F) (A-F) Error | Error | MAD
    1 270 - - -
    2 310 - - -
    3 250 - - -
    4 290 276.66666666667 13.33333 13.33333
    5 370 283.33333333333 86.66667 86.66667
    6 410 303.33333333333 106.6667 106.6667
    71.33333333
    7 400 356.66666666667 43.33333 43.33333
    8 500 393.33333333333 106.6667 106.6667
    9 - 436.66666666667 356.6667

    Number of Enrolled in OM MAD


    Semester (A) a=0.20 (F) (A-F) Error | Error |
    1 270 -
    2 310 -
    3 250 -
    4 290 290 0 0
    5 370 290 80 80
    6 410 306 104 104
    16.6304
    7 400 326.8 73.2 73.2
    8 500 341.44 158.56 158.56
    9 - 367.384832 415.76

    Comparison of Mean Absolute Deviation Error


    Tool MAD
    MA-3 71.3333
    a=0.2 16.6304
    Exponentially Smoothed Forecast
    Month Fund Price a=0.40 | Error |
    1 62.7 62.70 0.00
    2 63.9 62.70 1.20
    3 68 63.18 4.82
    4 66.4 65.11 1.29
    5 67.2 65.62 1.58
    6 65.8 66.25 0.45
    7 68.2 66.07 2.13
    8 69.3 66.92 2.38
    9 67.2 67.87 0.67
    10 70.1 67.60 2.50
    11 68.60

    Adjusted Exponential Smoothed Forecast


    Month Fund Price a=0.40 Trend Adjusted Forecasts | Error |
    1 62.7 62.70 - - -
    2 63.9 62.70 0.00 62.70 1.20
    3 68 63.18 0.14 63.32 4.68
    4 66.4 65.11 0.68 65.79 0.61
    5 67.2 65.62 0.63 66.26 0.94
    6 65.8 66.25 0.63 66.89 1.09
    7 68.2 66.07 0.39 66.46 1.74
    8 69.3 66.92 0.53 67.45 1.85
    9 67.2 67.87 0.65 68.53 1.33
    10 70.1 67.60 0.38 67.98 2.12
    11 68.60 0.56 69.17

    Month (x) Fund Price (y) x*y x^2 Forecast | Error |


    1 62.7 62.7 1 64.15 1.45
    2 63.9 127.8 4 64.75 0.85
    3 68 204 9 65.36 2.64
    4 66.4 265.6 16 65.97 0.43
    5 67.2 336 25 66.58 0.62
    6 65.8 394.8 36 67.18 1.38
    7 68.2 477.4 49 67.79 0.41
    8 69.3 554.4 64 68.40 0.90
    9 67.2 604.8 81 69.01 1.81
    10 70.1 701 100 69.61 0.49
    11 70.22
    sum 3728.5 385 67.717 10.98
    X̄ 5.50
    ȳ 66.88 0.607273
    b 0.61
    a 63.54

    y = 63.53 + 0.61x
    MAD = 1.70151

    MAD = 1.728455

    MAD = 1.10
    Season Fall Winter Spring Summer Total
    2018 42.7 36.9 51.3 62.9 193.8
    2019 44.3 42.7 55.6 64.8 207.4
    80
    2020 45.7 34.8 49.3 71.2 201
    2021 49.6 41.5 47.3 74.5 70
    212.9
    Total 182.3 155.9 203.5 273.4 815.1 60
    50

    Season
    Seasonal Factor 40
    Fall 0.22 30
    Winter 0.19 20
    Spring 0.25 10
    Summer 0.34
    0
    2018
    Year (x) Sales (y) x*y x^2 Forecast
    1 193.8 193.8 1 196.14
    2 207.4 414.8 4 201.23
    3 201 603 9 206.32
    4 212.9 851.6 16 211.41
    5 216.5 Sea
    Total 2063.2 30 80.00
    70.00
    X̄ 2.5 60.00

    Adjusted Forecasts
    ȳ 203.775 48.4
    50.00
    b 5.09
    40.00
    a 191.05
    30.00

    Trend Line y = 191.05 + 5.09x 20.00


    10.00
    Seasonally Adjusted Forecasts for Year 2022 0.00
    0.5 1
    Fall 48.42
    Winter 41.41
    Spring 54.05
    Summer 72.62

    Based on the trend graph, the data shows a seasonal pattern


    Seasonal Sandwich Sales
    80
    70
    60
    50 Fall
    Season

    40 Winter
    Spring
    30 Summer
    20
    10
    0
    2018 2019 2020 2021
    Axis Title

    Seasonally Adjusted Forecasts for 2022


    80.00 72.62
    70.00
    60.00 54.05
    Adjusted Forecasts

    48.42
    50.00 41.41
    40.00 Column D
    30.00
    20.00
    10.00
    0.00
    0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
    Seasons

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