Cambridge International AS & A Level

MATHEMATICS 9709/53
Paper 5 Probability & Statistics 1 May/June 2022
MARK SCHEME
Maximum Mark: 50

Published

This mark scheme is published as an aid to teachers and candidates, to indicate the requirements of the
examination. It shows the basis on which Examiners were instructed to award marks. It does not indicate the
details of the discussions that took place at an Examiners’ meeting before marking began, which would have
considered the acceptability of alternative answers.

Mark schemes should be read in conjunction with the question paper and the Principal Examiner Report for
Teachers.

Cambridge International will not enter into discussions about these mark schemes.

Cambridge International is publishing the mark schemes for the May/June 2022 series for most
Cambridge IGCSE, Cambridge International A and AS Level and Cambridge Pre-U components, and some
Cambridge O Level components.

This document consists of 14 printed pages.

© UCLES 2022 [Turn over

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Generic Marking Principles

These general marking principles must be applied by all examiners when marking candidate answers. They should be applied alongside the specific content of the
mark scheme or generic level descriptors for a question. Each question paper and mark scheme will also comply with these marking principles.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 1:

Marks must be awarded in line with:
 the specific content of the mark scheme or the generic level descriptors for the question
 the specific skills defined in the mark scheme or in the generic level descriptors for the question
 the standard of response required by a candidate as exemplified by the standardisation scripts.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 2:

Marks awarded are always whole marks (not half marks, or other fractions).

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 3:

Marks must be awarded positively:
 marks are awarded for correct/valid answers, as defined in the mark scheme. However, credit is given for valid answers which go beyond the scope of the
syllabus and mark scheme, referring to your Team Leader as appropriate
 marks are awarded when candidates clearly demonstrate what they know and can do
 marks are not deducted for errors
 marks are not deducted for omissions
 answers should only be judged on the quality of spelling, punctuation and grammar when these features are specifically assessed by the question as
indicated by the mark scheme. The meaning, however, should be unambiguous.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 4:

Rules must be applied consistently, e.g. in situations where candidates have not followed instructions or in the application of generic level descriptors.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 5:

Marks should be awarded using the full range of marks defined in the mark scheme for the question (however; the use of the full mark range may be limited
according to the quality of the candidate responses seen).

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 6:

Marks awarded are based solely on the requirements as defined in the mark scheme. Marks should not be awarded with grade thresholds or grade descriptors in
mind.

© UCLES 2022 Page 2 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Mathsematics Specific Marking Principles

1 Unless a particular method has been specified in the question, full marks may be awarded for any correct method. However, if a calculation is required
then no marks will be awarded for a scale drawing.

2 Unless specified in the question, answers may be given as fractions, decimals or in standard form. Ignore superfluous zeros, provided that the degree of
accuracy is not affected.

3 Allow alternative conventions for notation if used consistently throughout the paper, e.g. commas being used as decimal points.

4 Unless otherwise indicated, marks once gained cannot subsequently be lost, e.g. wrong working following a correct form of answer is ignored (ISW).

5 Where a candidate has misread a number in the question and used that value consistently throughout, provided that number does not alter the difficulty or
the method required, award all marks earned and deduct just 1 mark for the misread.

6 Recovery within working is allowed, e.g. a notation error in the working where the following line of working makes the candidate’s intent clear.

© UCLES 2022 Page 3 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Mark Scheme Notes

The following notes are intended to aid interpretation of mark schemes in general, but individual mark schemes may include marks awarded for specific reasons
outside the scope of these notes.

Types of mark

M Method mark, awarded for a valid method applied to the problem. Method marks are not lost for numerical errors, algebraic slips or errors in units.
However, it is not usually sufficient for a candidate just to indicate an intention of using some method or just to quote a formula; the formula or idea
must be applied to the specific problem in hand, e.g. by substituting the relevant quantities into the formula. Correct application of a formula
without the formula being quoted obviously earns the M mark and in some cases an M mark can be implied from a correct answer.

A Accuracy mark, awarded for a correct answer or intermediate step correctly obtained. Accuracy marks cannot be given unless the associated method
mark is earned (or implied).

B Mark for a correct result or statement independent of method marks.

DM or DB When a part of a question has two or more ‘method’ steps, the M marks are generally independent unless the scheme specifically says otherwise;
and similarly, when there are several B marks allocated. The notation DM or DB is used to indicate that a particular M or B mark is dependent on
an earlier M or B (asterisked) mark in the scheme. When two or more steps are run together by the candidate, the earlier marks are implied and full
credit is given.

FT Implies that the A or B mark indicated is allowed for work correctly following on from previously incorrect results. Otherwise, A or B marks are
given for correct work only.

 A or B marks are given for correct work only (not for results obtained from incorrect working) unless follow through is allowed (see abbreviation
FT above).
 For a numerical answer, allow the A or B mark if the answer is correct to 3 significant figures or would be correct to 3 significant figures if rounded
(1 decimal place for angles in degrees).
 The total number of marks available for each question is shown at the bottom of the Marks column.
 Wrong or missing units in an answer should not result in loss of marks unless the guidance indicates otherwise.
 Square brackets [ ] around text or numbers show extra information not needed for the mark to be awarded.

© UCLES 2022 Page 4 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Abbreviations

AEF/OE Any Equivalent Form (of answer is equally acceptable) / Or Equivalent

AG Answer Given on the question paper (so extra checking is needed to ensure that the detailed working leading to the result is valid)

CAO Correct Answer Only (emphasising that no ‘follow through’ from a previous error is allowed)

CWO Correct Working Only

ISW Ignore Subsequent Working

SOI Seen Or Implied

SC Special Case (detailing the mark to be given for a specific wrong solution, or a case where some standard marking practice is to be varied in the light of
a particular circumstance)

WWW Without Wrong Working

AWRT Answer Which Rounds To

© UCLES 2022 Page 5 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

1(a) Cumulative frequency (cf) graph M1 At least 3 points plotted accurately at class upper
end points (25,16) (50,44) (75,86) (100,104)
(150, 132) (200, 150).
Linear cf scale 0 ⩽ cf ⩽ 150 and linear time scale
0 ⩽ time(mins) ⩽ 200 with at least 3 values
identified on each axis.

A1 All points plotted correctly, curve drawn (within

tolerance) and joined to (0,0).
Axes labelled cumulative frequency (cf), time (t)
and minutes (min), or a suitable title.

1(b) Line from cumulative frequency = 30 to meet graph at t is between 37.5 and B1 FT Not from wrong working. Must be an increasing
42 cumulative frequency graph.

© UCLES 2022 Page 6 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

2(a) 123.4  B1 1234

 20   6.17
Accept 6 m 17 cm, .
  200

2(b) 10th  11th 5.4  5.5 B1 Accept 5 m 45 cm.

  5.45 (m)
2 2

2(c) The mean is unduly influenced by an extreme value, 19.4. B1 Comment must be within context.

Question Answer Marks Guidance

3(a) 1 B1 SOI
k (4k+ k +4k +9k = 18k = 1)
18

M1 Table with correct x values and at least one

x 2 1 2 3
probability accurate using their k.
Values need not be in order, lines may not be
4 1 4 9
P(X=x) drawn, may be vertical, x and P(X=x) may be
18 18 18 18 omitted.
Condone any additional X values if probability
stated as 0.

A1 Remaining probabilities correct.

© UCLES 2022 Page 7 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

3(b)  4  2  1  1  4  2  9  3  M1 8k  k  8k  27k

E  X   18
 May be implied by use in Variance. Accept
 
unsimplified expression.
8  1  8  27
FT their table if probabilities sum to 1 or 0.999.
18 SC B1 28k.

 4  (2) 2  1  12  4  22  9  32 2  M1 16k  k  16k  81k  (their mean)2

 Var  X     their E  X     FT their table even if probabilities not summing to
 18  1.
2
16  1  16  81  28  114
  their E  X   M1.
2
=   their  Note: If table is correct,
18  18  18
SC B1 114k – (their mean)2.

14 5 317 74 A1 Answers for E(X) and Var(X) must be identified.

E(X) = , 1 , 1.56 , Var (X) = , 3 , 3.91
9 9 81 81 3.91 ⩽ Var(X) ⩽ 3.914

Question Answer Marks Guidance

4(a)  5  7 1  78125 B1 0.0465 ⩽ p < 0.04652

     0.0465,
 6  6  1679616

© UCLES 2022 Page 8 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

4(b) 5
5 2 3
1  5  1   5   1   5   1   5   1 
4 M1 1 – pn, 0 < p < 1, n = 4, 5, 6 or sum of 4, 5 or 6
P(X < 6) = 1    or                    terms p  1  p  for n  0,1, 2,3, 4  5  .
n
6 6  6  6   6   6   6   6   6   6 

4651 A1
0.598,
7776

4(c) 3 1 B1 SOI
[Probability of total less than 4 is] or
36 12

[1 – P(0, 1, 2)] M1 One term 10Cx p x 1  p 

10  x
, for 0 < x < 10,
0 10 1 9 2 8
 1   11   1   11   1   11  0 < p < 1.
= 1  ( 10C0     + 10C1     + 10
C2     )
 12   12   12   12   12   12 

1 – (0.418904 + 0.380822 + 0.155791) A1 FT Correct expression. Accept unsimplified.

0.0445 A1 0.04448 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.0445

© UCLES 2022 Page 9 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

5(a)  142  170 205  170  M1 Use of ± standardisation formula once substituting
[P(142 < X < 205)] = P  z  170, 25 and either 142 or 205 appropriately..
 25 25 
Condone 252 and continuity correction ±0.5.

P( 1.12  z  1.4) A1 Both correct. Accept unsimplified.

Φ 1.4   (1  Φ 1.12  ) = 0.9192 + 0.8686 – 1 M1 Calculating the appropriate area from stated phis of
z-values.

0.788 A1 AWRT, not from wrong working

5(b) P(X > 205) = 1 – 0.9192 = 0.0808 B1 FT Correct or FT from part 5(a).

 0.0808  0.30  their 0.788  0.24   20000 M1 Correct or

their 0.0808 × 0.30 × k + their 0.788 × 0.24 × k,
k positive integer.

[$]4266.24 A1 4265 < income ⩽ 4270, not from wrong working

5(c) w  182 B1 0.5828 ⩽ z ⩽ 0.583 or -0.583 ⩽ z ⩽ –0.5828 seen.

[P( Z  )  0.72 ]
20
w  182 M1 182 and 20 substituted in ± standardisation
 0.583 formula, no continuity correction, not σ2, √ σ,
20
equated to a z-value.

w  170 A1 170 ⩽ w < 170.35

© UCLES 2022 Page 10 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

6(a) 1st 2nd 3rd B1 First and second jumps correct with probabilities
and outcomes identified.
0.3 S
0.3 S B1 Third jump correct with probabilities and outcomes
0.7 F identified.
S 0.1 S
0.2 0.7
F F
0.9
0.3 S
0.8 0.1 S
0.7
F F
0.9 0.1 S
F
0.9 F

6(b) SFF 0.2  0.7  0.9  0.126 M1 Two or three correct 3 factor probabilities added,
FSF 0.8  0.1 0.7  0.056 correct or FT from part 6(a). Accept unsimplified.
FFS 0.8  0.9  0.1 0.072

 127  A1 Accept unsimplified.

[Total = probability of 1 success =] 0.254  
 500 

 44  B1 FT Accept unsimplified.
[Probability of at least 1 success = 1− 0.8  0.9  0.9 ]0.352  
 125 

their 0.254 M1 Accept unsimplified.

P(exactly 1 success | at least 1 success)=
their 0.352

127 A1 0.7215 < p ⩽ 0.722

0.722,
176

© UCLES 2022 Page 11 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

6(c) 0.8  0.9  0.9  0.1 0.3  0.3  0.005832 [FFFSSS] M1 a × b × c × d × e × f FT from their tree diagram.
0.2  0.3  0.3  0.7  0.9  0.9  0.010206 [SSSFFF] Either a, b and c all = 0.8 or 0.9 (at least one of
each) and d, e and f all = 0.1 or 0.3 (at least one of
each).
Or a, b, c = 0.2 or 0.3 (at least one of each) and d,
e, f = 0.7 or 0.9 (at least one of each).

A1 Either correct. Accept unsimplified.

[Total =] 0.0160[38] A1

Question Answer Marks Guidance

12
7(a) C5 × 7C4 [× 3C3] M1 12
Cr × q, r = 3, 4, 5 q a positive integer > 1,
no + or − .__
12
M1 Cs × 12–sCt [× 12-s–tCu]
s = 3, 4, 5; t = 3, 4, 5 ≠ s; u = 3, 4, 5 ≠ s ,t

Alternative method for question 7(a)

12! M1 12!  by a product of three factorials.

5! 3! 4!
M1 n!
5! 3! 4!

[792 × 35 =] 27 720 A1 CAO

© UCLES 2022 Page 12 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

7(b) 4! (Lizo) × 6! (Kenny) × 2! (Martin) × 2! (Nantes) M1 Product involving at least 3 of 4!, 6!, 2!, 2!

× 3! (orders of K, M and N) M1 w × 3! , w integer > 1.

414 720 A1 WWW CAO

3
7
7(c) C4 (adults) × 4C1 × 3C1 M1 7
C4 × b, b integer > 1 no + or – .

420 A1

2
5
7(d) K not L C3 × 8C3 = 560 M1 8
C3(or 8P3) × c for one of the products
5
L not K C3 × 8C3 = 560 or 5C3 (or 5P3)× c, positive integer >1 for first 2
5
L and K C2 × 8C3= 560 products only.

M1 Add 2 or 3 correct scenarios only values, no

additional incorrect scenarios, no repeated
scenarios. Accept unsimplified.

[Total or Difference=] 1680 A1

Alternative method for question 7(d)

8
Total no of ways – neither L nor K M1 C3 × c, c a positive integer >1.
Total = 7C4 × 8C3 = 1960
Neither K nor L = 5C4  8C3 =280 M1 Subtracting the number of ways with neither from
their total number of ways.

[Total or Difference=] 1680 A1

© UCLES 2022 Page 13 of 14

9709/53 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme May/June 2022
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance

7(d) Alternative method for question 7(d)

8
Subtracting K and L from sum of K and L M1 C3 × c, c a positive integer >1.
6
K C3 × 8C3 = 1120
6
L C3 × 8C3 = 1120 M1 Subtracting number of ways with both from sum of
L and K 5C2 × 8C3= 560 number of ways with K and number of ways with
1120 + 1120 – 560 = 1680 L.

[Total or Difference=] 1680 A1

© UCLES 2022 Page 14 of 14