Development of Decision Support System for Efficient and

Environmental Water Allocation in Mahmoudia Canal

Watershed

Prof. Dr. M. Nour El-Din. 1, Dr. Noha Donia2, Dr. H. El-Gammal3, and Eng.

Hesham Elshazely4
1
Irrigation and Hydraulic Department, Ain Shams University
2
Institute of Environmental Studies and Researches
3
National Water Research Center
4
Ministry of Water Resources& Irrigation
ABSTARCT
Many models have been developed during the last decades to facilitate the
decision making process in water resource planning and management. Many of
these models are no longer in use because of a variety of reasons. A DSS model
has been developed by delft hydraulics in 1998 for Water Quality Management.
The system incorporates three sub-models for water balance, waste loads
calculation and water quality simulation. The DSS instrument was applied to the
Nile Delta region but after that it became obsolete because of technical and
administrative reasons. This paper highlights the modifications that have been
carried out on this old version. The Mahmoudia canal command area suffers
from inequity of water distribution at the branch canals,
unavailability/insufficiency of irrigation water, deterioration of water quality,

1
and supplementary irrigation by reuse saline drainage water, which is highly
polluted by nutrients, pesticides, heavy metals, and organic loads. Therefore the
updated model has been applied in Mahmoudia watershed area in the western of
Nile delta for enabling the decision makers to reallocate the irrigation and
drainage water based on socioeconomic and environmental aspects in different
scenarios.

Two scenarios have been carried out for 2017 water strategy namely
environmentally allocated drainage water reuse and irrigation improvement
interventions at tertiary and quaternary levels. The reallocated drainage water
reuse has resulted in improving water distribution, irrigation water quality,
evapotranspiration and accordingly crops yields by 10% in the southern western
areas of the watershed. The optimistic scenario of irrigation improvement has
resulted in increasing evapotranspiration and crops yield at the tail reaches by
15%, while the drainage water salinity has increased by 20.3%.

To secure the additional drinking water requirements for Alexandria in 2050,

other three scenarios have been designated for 2050 water strategy, namely
maximizing drainage water reuse from main drains, intermediate drainage reuse
from branch drains, and desalination option. The modeling results of the first
and second scenarios have resulted in decreasing the Edko and Mariut Lakes
outflows to the Mediterranean Sea by 30% and 10% respectively. The salinity
of drainage water at the exit of Mahmoudia watershed has increased in the
intermediate reuse scenario and the maximum reuse from main drains scenario

2
by 40% and 23% respectively. There is also an increase in organic pollution
concentrations of maximizing drainage water reuse scenario at the exit of
Mahmoudia watershed in Edko and Omum drains by 12% and 36%
respectively. The cost a benefit analysis of 2050 water strategy scenarios
including the costs of economic and environmental damages recommend
applying the intermediate drainage water reuse as a strategic option for
integrated water management in Mahmoudia watershed.

1. Introduction
New methods for addressing water resources problems are being developed and
implemented using advanced computer facilities for data management and
analysis. Among these newly evolved methods are the Decision Support
Systems (DSS).

The Water Resources System in Egypt consists of Natural Resources, Socio-

Economic, and Administrative and Institutional sub-systems (Pennekamp,
August 1993), each of which is highly complex in its own. The Ministry of
Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) has realized this issue and started
some time ago to develop mathematical models to help decision-maker in his
task. The objective of most of these models is to simulate water supply, water
demands, water quality, and agro-economic aspects. (N.El-Masry, 2005).

Despite the large number of the available models, only a few are currently in
use while the rest are either not used at all or not used effectively. The reasons

3
of not using the models effectively are using old versions of programming
languages that had certain limitations, complexity of the models with non user-
friendly interface, rigidity to accommodate new changes in the system; and the
unavailability of source codes because these models was developed outside
Egypt.
Therefore, restoring, enhancing and updating these models are often
economically attractive when the cost is compared with that of developing new
models

1.1 Objectives of the study

The objective of the work reported in this paper is to:

• Update the Decision support System for Nile Delta in Egypt in order to
restore and put it again on the track
• Model application, calibration, and validation at Mahmoudia canal
command area
• Assess the required water allocation scenarios for the current and future
water strategies
• Analyzing the model results

1.2 Model description

The dss contains a number of sub models (Bakkum, 1998):

4
 • siware (developed by the Dutch Staring Centre) computes the flows and
water balance;
• wlm (Waste Load Model) calculates the loads form municipal, industrial
and agriculture sources;
• delwaq (Delft Water Quality Model) simulates water quality processes
and computes concentrations of pollutants;

1.2.1 SIWARE model

The SIWARE model consists of four main modules (Figure 1), each one with
special functions (Roest, 1998):

• WDUTY module to compute the farmers' water demands, based on an

unlimited supply of good quality irrigation water.
• DESIGN module to allocate the available irrigation water to the main
canal intakes, based on the areas with different crops grown in the
respective commands. DESIGN also computes the target levels
throughout the irrigation system for all location where regulating
structures are present.
• WATDIS module to compute the actual water distribution. WATDIS is
a hydraulic model and confronts the target levels to be maintained by
the irrigation authority for a fair distribution of water with the water
demand of farmers, which try to maximize their share. Direct losses
from the irrigation system to the drains are included in the computations

5
 through accounting for the day - night discrepancy between supply in
the canals and the water uptake by farmers.
• REUSE module to compute required reuse of drainage water from the
drainage system and estimate the resulting salinity of the (mixed)
irrigation water. In addition to the actual consumptive use of water by
crops, the soil salinity and drainage losses. The module computes also
the unofficial reuse of drainage water by farmers. REUSE also accounts
for municipal drainage water and computes the transport of the
generated losses to the coastal lakes.

Figure1. The SIWARE flow chart

Water supply
to the W
watershed DUTY
Area served
Cropping Agricultur
DESIG
pattern al
N
Irrigation Water
Water
schedule Demand
supply per
Layout
decade
WATD of
to
irrigation
main canals
IS
The western Nile Delta has been schematized into 87 calculation units in
Branch system
REUSE Irrigation
SIWARE model (Figure
canals 2). In Target
each calculation
Hydrological unit, different characteristics are
system
identifiedwater
as croplevels Drainage-
canals
conditions
type, hydrological losses
conditions and soil characteristics.
Quantity
water
DrainagelevelsSalinity
Evapotranspiratio
n
Soil salinity

6
Figure 2: schematization of the western Nile Delta into calculation units

1.2.2 Waste Load Model WLM

The WLM provides the input for the DELWAQ water quality model. The

WLM consists of two major functional modules, a waste load production

module (kg BOD per inhabitant or kg NO3 per feddan and a waste load
treatment module, which considers the effect of natural and artificial treatment
especially for the different systems of wastewater treatment plants in the study
area. The WLM includes modules for domestic waste load production,
agriculture waste load production, industrial waste load production, artificial
purification, and natural purification.

1.2.3 DELWAQ Model

The DELWAQ model determines the concentration of substances in waterways.
The transport of substances is governed by the advection-diffusion equation,
which is solved by DELWAQ. The substances and the processes influencing
concentration levels of the substances are available from a built-in library

7
including more than 100 substances and more than 1,000 processes. The
substances enter the modeled area as boundary concentrations or as dry waste
loads.

1.3 Description of the study area

The Mahmoudia canal command area is located near the northern edge of the
west delta in Behaira governorate. The canal runs for a distance of 77 km from
the Rosetta branch of the Nile down to the Mediterranean Sea at Alexandria as
shown in figure 3.

1.3.1 Climate
The climate in the Mahmodia area is generally cool in winter and moderately
hot in summer. There is significant rainfall only during the winter season
reaching an average of 200 mm per year near the coast and only 175 mm per
year in the south of the Mahmodia command area. The ETo values in west delta
are relatively high with respect to similar values in neighboring regions. This
may be due to the high wind speed that characterizes Mahmoudia watershed. In
general, the trend of the average ET act values given by the Water Watch 2009
shows a decrease in the ET in the west of Mahmodia watershed (Henk Pelgrum,
2009).

1.3.2 Land Use

Mahmoudia watershed includes a total gross agricultural area of about 305,000
feddan (net area 240,000 fed the difference is urbanized areas, roads, and

8
waterways). The results of a remote sensing study carried out in 2008-2009 by
Water Watch were used in the data analysis and input data for Simulation of
Water Management in the Arab Republic of Egypt SIWARE sub model. The
cultivated areas of the main crops (rice, cotton, and Maize) in summer represent
32%, 20%, and 32% of the agricultural area in Mahmoudia respectively. In
winter, Wheat and Berseem cultivated areas represent 47% and 40% of the
agricultural area in Mahmoudia respectively.

1.3.3 Sources of Water

The canal directly receives water from three sources El-Atf pumping stations
from Rosetta branch at Km 0+170 (maximum capacity of 162m3/s) , Edko
drainage re-use pump station at Km 8+740(maximum capacity of 11.5m3/s),
and Tail of El Khandak El Sharky canal at Km 16+356(maximum capacity of
38m3/s) (El-Din, 2008).

1.3.4 Irrigation and drainage networks

Mahmoudia canal feeds about 70 branch canals. The branch and distributary
canals system is operated according to agricultural rotation principal. There are
two systems of rotation; two-turn rotation and three-turn rotation. Water
distribution among branch canals is managed in Mahmoudia watershed based
on water levels. The irrigation system is old and its imperfections are poorly
maintained old sluice gates at the intakes of the branch canals, malfunctioning
automatic downstream control gates and distributors, improper leveling of tail

9
escapers, and widening of cross sections due to improper maintenance and de-
weeding methods.
The lengths of drainage network in Mahmodia watershed is about 700 km.
subsurface drainage networks are implemented in 180,000 feddan, which is
about 75% of the drainage area. The Mahmoudia canal command area suffers
from inequity of water distribution at the branch canals,
unavailability/insufficiency of irrigation water, deterioration of water quality,
and supplementary irrigation by drainage water reuse, which is highly polluted
by nutrients, pesticides, heavy metals, and organic loads.

1.3.5 Socioeconomic status

The population number in Mahmodia watershed is 2,473,216 according to
2003 census. The average GDP per capita varies from 3300 to 4400 US$ in the
urban areas, while it varies from 2600-3900 US$ in the rural areas within the
watershed. The HDI varies from 0.63 in the rural areas to 0.7 in the urban areas.
The percentage of population under poverty line in Mahmoudia watershed is
about 21.1% (UNDP-Egypt, 2005).
Figure 3 location of Mahmoudia watershed in the western Nile delta.

10
2. Approach and Methodology

2.1 Model modifications

Special modifications were developed for some visual basic files and some
other executable files. The updated files had to be added to the system of
windows XP. Open data structure program was also developed to open and
modify database files, DELWAQ history files and map files within the DSS
model. SIWARE files that have been updated include cropping pattern, water
duties, and distribution of inflows, outflows, and water balance files.

2.2 Model building and application

2.2.1 WLM schematization

The WLM schematization includes editing the WLM network according to the
point and non-point pollution sources and identifying the natural and artificial
treatment systems in the watershed map. The domestic and industrial waste
loads are also identified on the database and the schematization map. After that,
the WLM loads are positioned for DELWAQ

2.2.2 DELWAQ setting

The process of water quality modeling is implemented by editing DELWAQ
segments, identifying process coefficients, setting the boundary conditions, and
entering water quality monitoring data in network and database history files for
model calibration.

11
2.3 Data used for the analysis
The data used for the analysis includes discharge and water quality data of the
main, branch canals, and main drains by different sectors within Ministry of
Water Resources and Irrigation in Egypt. The monitoring locations include 14
locations for discharges and 40 locations for water quality ( Water Management
Research Institute, 2008)

2.4 Model calibration and validationg

SIWARE model input parameter estimation and checking (validation) has been
performed at the three levels for which measured data are available, namely:
 At canal command level for checking water allocation procedure
 At irrigation branch canal level for checking water distribution within
the irrigation canal command
 At the drainage catchment level for checking the official and unofficial
drainage water reuse
The water discharge at Mahmoudia canal after conjunction with Khandak El-
Sharki canal agrees fairly well with reported measured discharge values by the
Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation in 2007 with a standard error of 9.8%
as shown in figure 4.
Figure 4: Measured and simulated flow rates at Mahmoudia canal

12
 Modelled and measured discharge at Mahmoudyia canal af-
ter supply from Khandak canal
12
10 SIWARE Modelled
Discharge
Q million m3/day

8
6 Measured
Discharge
4
2
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Decades

Total simulated discharge of the branch canals and the main drains agree quite
well with observations for 2007. The same is true for the salinity expressed as
chloride and the salt load.
The calibrated model has also been applied on the period from 2008 till 2010 to
cover a substantial range of variation in water supply to the Western Nile Delta.
Total simulated discharge and average salinity for this period show a fair
agreement with observations for the complete period.
DELWAQ model has also been calibrated and the simulation results of BOD5
in 2007 were compared with the field observations in this base year. The
simulated BOD5 concentrations agree fairly well with reported measured
values by the Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation in 2007 with a standard
error of 9.7% as shown in figure 5.

13
Figure 5: Modeled and Measured BOD5 in Edko drain at the exit of
Mahmoudia watershed

Modeled and Measured BOD5 in Edko drain at the exit of

40 Mahmoudyia watershed
35
30
25
20
BOD5

15
10 Modelled BOD5
5 Measured BOD5
0
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
a n - an - eb - eb - ar- p r- p r- ay - ay - u n - u n - Ju l- u g - u g - ep - ep - ct- o v - o v - ec- ec-
J J F F M A A M M J J A A S S O N N D D

3. Designation of Scenarios

3.1 Scenarios of MWRI Strategy for 2017

Three scenarios for MWRI strategy for 2017 have been designated namely,
irrigation improvement at tertiary and quaternary levels, and reallocation of the
currently drainage water reuse.
3.1.1 IIP scenarios

The effect of irrigation improvement intervention on water saving has to be

estimated before designating the irrigation improvement scenarios to be
modeled. The irrigation losses can be categorized as follows:

14
  Conveyance losses include any branch, tertiary and quaternary canal
spills (operational or accidental) and evaporation that might result from
management as well as losses resulting from the physical configuration
or condition of the irrigation system, which represent 22% of losses
 Distribution and tail escape losses which represent 4% of losses
 Field application losses including deep percolation or surface runoff,
which represent 74% of losses
Unfortunately the IIP improvement works have been limited to minimizing
conveyance losses through mesqa improvement works. Therefore the
implemented mesqa improvement works in 131,000 feddan within Mahmoudia
command area from 2000 to 2004 has not resulted in a concrete water saving.
The results of the monitoring and evaluation program of IIP showed that the
southern parts of Abo Hommos district suffered from water shortage in El-Zini,
Sidi Azab, and Mahlet Keil branch canals. It was estimated that the reduction of
excess canal water released to the drains would lead to increase the salinity
concentration of the drainage water after IIP (National Policy For Drainage
Water Reuse, 1998). This approach must be dealt with caution because other
factors are not taken in the consideration. However, this approach leads to
conclude that no water saving has achieved in Zawiet Naeim canal command
area because the salinity level in Abo Hommos drain has not increased after
completion of mesqa improvement works in 2005 as shown in figure 6. While

15
the northern parts of Abo Hommes district has likely shown water saving in
Nasr Allah canal of 5% because the salinity level has increased by 10%
Figure 6: Drainage water salinity in Abo Hommos district before and after
Mesqa irrigation improvement

Drainage water salinity before and after Mesqa irrigation improvement in

Mahmoudyia command area
3500
3000 Abo Hommos drain
2500 Bersiq drain
2000
TDS mg/L

1500
1000
500
0
03 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7
n- -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Ja ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep
M M M M M

According to the type of interventions that has to be implemented in

Mahmoudia command area during IIIMP project, two scenarios will be
designated as follows:

 Finalize mesqa improvement works in Mahmoudia command area

which will result in 5% water saving in the optimistic scenario
 Finalize mesqa and marwa improvement works in Mahmoudia
command area which will result in 10% water saving in the optimistic
scenario

16
3.1.2 Reallocation of the current drainage reuse
The area irrigated by drainage water in Mahmoudia watershed is about 40,000
feddan. The Behira irrigation districts reported that the quantity of reused
drainage water is about 400million m 3/year, 45% of which is unofficial reuse
( Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management, 2010) . The drainage
water reuse from Edko drain represents only 25% of the total used drainage
water in Mahmoudia watershed, although it has less salinity and pollution loads
than Omum drain in the west of Mahmoudia watershed. Therefore, this scenario
assumes increasing the drainage water reuse from Edko to 50% of the total used
drainage water.

3.2 Scenarios of water strategy for 2050

The domestic and industrial annual water demands from Mahmoudia canal will
increase from 1.3 BCM to 2.1 BCM. To secure the additional municipal water
demands three scenarios have been designated, namely maximizing drainage
water reuse from main drains, intermediate drainage water reuse, and
desalination.

3.2.1 Maximizing drainage water reuse from main drains

If the improvement works fail to achieve water saving, the drainage water reuse
has to be maximized to secure the agricultural water demands because of the
prioritization of fresh water allocation to drinking water demands in
Alexandria. The consequences of maximizing drainage water reuse will be the

17
decrease of the yield of the sensitive crops especially vegetables, soil
salinization, less water flow to the coastal lakes, and more health hazards
associated with drainage water reuse.

3.2.2 Maximizing drainage water reuse by intermediate reuse

Intermediate reuse means mixing branch drains water for local reuse before the
water goes to the main drains. Contrary to centralized reuse, intermediate reuse
conserves drainage water at local level and helps mitigating water shortages at
branch canal ends.

3.2.3 Desalination Option

This scenario assumes that there is no additional fresh water from Mahmoudia
canal will be supplied to the drinking water treatment plants in Alexandria. The
additional drinking water requirements have to be secured by desalination. This
requires constructing two mega desalination plants in Alexandria each of
1.1million m3/day and the installation cost of each plant will be very costly.

4. Results and Discussions

4.1 Water quantity results

The modeled results for reallocating drainage water reuse scenario using the
DSS model showed improvement in the Water use Index for agriculture
especially in the downstream districts namely El-Raml and Kafr El-Dawar at

18
which WUI reach 1.4 and 1.32 instead of 1.2 before reallocation as shown in
figure 8. WUI is the measured volume of water supplied to a defined area
divided by the crop-specific water demand arising from that area (ET or
Evapotranspiration). Accordingly, the evapotranspiration and yield has
improved by 10% in the southern western areas of the watershed. The
optimistic scenario of irrigation improvement has resulted in increasing
evapotranspiration and crop yield at the tail reaches by 15%, while the drainage
water salinity in Edko drain has increased by 20.3%. Reallocating the current
drainage water reuse has improved the WUI in the downstream areas better than
the IIP. To maintain adequate water supply for agricultural in 2050 water
strategy, drainage water reuse has to be increased to reach 1.1 BCM/yr in
Mahmoudia watershed by maximizing the mixing from main drains or from
secondary drains by intermediate drainage reuse. The consequences of this
scenario will be economical and environmental damages.

Figure 8: WUI for agriculture in Mahmoudia districts in the different

scenarios

19
 Water Use Index for agriculture in Mahmoudyia districts in the different scenarios
2.00 Reference case
1.80
IIP Optimistic
1.60
Realocation of drainage water
1.40 reuse
1.20 Maximizing drainage water reuse
1.00
WUI

in 2050
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Mahmoudyia Abo Hommes Kafr El-Dawar El-Raml

4.2 Water Quality results

The modeled scenarios show that the chloride concentrations of drainage water
vary from 10 to 30 mg/L. Chloride is selected in DELWAQ to express water
salinity; therefore a correlation was realized between electrical conductivity and
chloride concentration for drainage water in Mahmoudia command area.
The range of modeled electrical conductivity values varies from 1.5 to 3.5 dS/m
as shown in figure 9. The average drainage water salinity in Edko drain will
increase by 20% from the reference case and reach 2.66 dS/m (1704mg/L) in
the optimistic scenario assuming 10% water saving after implementation of
mesqa and marwa improvement. The average drainage water salinity in Edko
drain will increase by 10% from the reference case and reach 2.4 dS/m (1536
mg/L) in the optimistic scenario assuming 5% water saving after
implementation of mesqa improvement works only. The average drainage water

20
salinity in Edko drain will exceed 3.5 dS/m (1920 mg/L) in the reallocation of
drainage ware reuse scenario assuming no water saving results from irrigation
improvement works and drainage water reuse will be maximized by 100% from
Edko drain as shown in figure 9. The modeling results of the other biological
and microbiological water quality parameters show that there is a slight
difference between the designated scenarios.

Maximizing drainage water reuse has resulted in the maximum pollution loads
to the northern lakes because the main drain discharges are mixed with
irrigation canal water to supply the agricultural water demands instead of
dilution of the organic loads carried from the upstream locations at Edko and
Omum drains.

Figure 9: Modeling chloride and EC in Edko drain at the different scenarios

Modeling of Cloride concentration in Edko drainage water at the exit of

35 Mahmoudyia command area 4
30
25 3
CL mg/L

EC dS/cm
20
2
15
10 1
5
0 0
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
Reference case Mesqa and marwa improvement 2017
Mesqa improvement only 2017 Reallocation of drainage waterreuse

The modeling results of 2050 strategy scenarios show that:

21
  During summer season, the salinity of Edko drainage water at the exit of
Mahmodia watershed increases in the intermediate reuse more than the
maximum reuse scenario. The lowest salinity concentration of drainage
water will be in the desalination scenario, where no maximizing of
drainage water will occur.
 During winter season, the pumping stations of the intermediate reuse
will operate for small periods and accordingly more drainage water will
flow from the branch drains to the main drains and the salinity
concentrations in Edko drain will be the lowest. The mixing stations
from main drains will operate for longer periods in the maximum
drainage water reuse scenario and accordingly the salinity levels of this
scenario will be the maximum as shown in figure 10.
 The salinity of drainage water at the exit of Mahmoudia watershed has
increased in the intermediate reuse scenario and the maximum reuse
from main drains scenario by 40% and 23% respectively.
 There is also an increase in pollution loads of maximizing drainage
water reuse scenario at the exit of Mahmoudia watershed in Edko and
Omum drains by 12% and 36% respectively.

Figure 10: Edko drainage water salinity at the exit of Mahmoudia watershed in
2050 strategy

22
 Edko Drainage water salinity at the exit of Mahmoudia watershed in
2050 strategy scenarios
5
Maximum reuse scenario
4
3 2050 scenario-desalination
scenario
EC dS/m

2
1 Intermediate reuse
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 l -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5
Ja
n
Ja
n b ar ar pr ay ay n n Ju ug ug p ct ct ov ec ec
Fe M M A M M Ju Ju A A Se O O N D D

4.3 Optimization of scenarios

4.3.1 Cost of environmental and economic damages

Maximizing reuse of high saline (above 3dS/m) and polluted drainage water
from main drains in agriculture results in economic and health impacts as
follows:

 Decrease of some main crops yield (maize, rice, Berseem) by 25%, and
Bean, onion, and pepper by 50% due to the high salinity of irrigation
water (>3dS/m) in case of maximizing drainage water reuse from main
drains.
 Health hazards to the farmers using drainage water in irrigation and also
to the population due to proximity to irrigation schemes. Disability
Adjusted Life Year DALY method developed by WHO was used to

23
 estimate health hazards damage cost for farmers and the population in
the proximity of irrigation schemes.
 Drinking water pollution causes diarrhoeal deaths and DALY cases
amounts to be about 0.38% according to ( World Health Organization,
2009).
 Fishery loss due to the decrease of drainage water flowing to Edko and
Mariut lakes.

The total cost of annual health and economic damage resulting from
maximizing drainage water reuse from main drains is about 34 million US$,
while it decreases to 16.634 million US$ for intermediate drainage reuse
from the secondary drains because the intermediate drainage water reuse
will result in less salinity (<2dS/m), less health hazards, and accordingly
less environmental and economic impacts.

4.3.2 Infrastructure costs

To secure the increasing drinking water demands in Alexandria and the
northern coast, is required to construct two mega desalination plants in
Alexandria each of 1.1million m3/day and the installation cost of each plant will
be 800 million US$. In addition to the installation costs (249 million US$) of
the necessary embankment and sheet piling works to increase the carrying
capacity of Mahmoudia canal to 147 m3/sec at El-Atf and 131m3/sec
downstream El-Khandak El-Sharki (Ghazi, 2008).

24
The required infrastructure for intermediate reuse scenario are 48 pumping
stations, each pumping station includes three units of 0.50m 3/sec. In addition to
constructing delivery pipelines of length 148km and 48 drain water weirs
downstream the pumping sites to capture drain water and store night-time drain
flows. The installation costs will be about 8.2million US$.

4.3.3 Cost benefit analysis

It was assumed in the three scenarios, that no additional water will be abstracted
from the Nile to Mahmoudyia canal and accordingly 0.7 BCM/yr will be saved
and will be available for agricultural use in other location(s). A weighted
average imputed value of about LE 0.75/m 3 (equal to the average water
productivity in agriculture) was used to calculate the value of saved water). The
cost benefit analysis of the three scenarios for 2050 strategy shows that out of
the three strategy options, two are feasible namely the intermediate reuse, and
maximizing reuse because the B/C ratio are 3.51, and 1.94 respectively.
Desalination is not feasible because B/C ratio is 0.25 (less than one).

5. Conclusion

The decision support system (DSS) developed by Delft Hydraulics in 1998 has
been updated and some visual basic and executable files have been modified .
The modified model was calibrated, validated, and applied to 2017 and 2050
water strategies options. Three scenarios for 2017 strategy were designated
namely, allocating the current drainage reuse, assuming water saving of 5% and

25
10% due to irrigation improvement projects. The allocated drainage water
scenario results in enhancement of evapotranspiration and the yields at the tail
reaches irrigated from Omum drain by 10%. While the optimistic irrigation
improvement scenario results in increasing the evapotranspiration and the
yields at the tail reaches irrigated by drainage water by 15% but the average
drainage water salinity in Edko drain will increase by 20% compared to the
reference case and reach 2.66 dS/m (1704mg/L) but there will be no effects on
the flushing and fishery production in Lake Edko.

Three other scenarios were modeled and analyzed for 2050 water strategy
namely, maximizing drainage water reuse from main drains, intermediate
drainage water reuse and desalination option. The results of the model show
that the salinity of drainage water at the exit of Mahmoudia watershed has
increased in the intermediate reuse scenario and the maximum reuse from main
drains scenario by 40% and 23% respectively.
Maximizing drainage water reuse has resulted in reducing the drainage inflow
to Lake Edko and Lake Mriut by 30% and 10% respectively. The salinity of
drainage water at the exit of Mahmoudia watershed has increased in the
intermediate reuse scenario and the maximum reuse from main drains scenario
by 40% and 23% respectively. There is also an increase in organic pollution
concentrations of maximizing drainage water reuse scenario at the exit of
Mahmoudia watershed in Edko and Omum drains by 12% and 36%
respectively. The decrease of drainage water inflow to Lake Edko will not

26
affect the fishery yield because the lake will still be flushed. However, the
decrease of drainage inflow to Lake Mariut will result in more deterioration of
the Lake ecosystem and less fish production.
The cost benefit analysis which took into consideration the costs of
environmental and economical degradation of each scenario shows that the
intermediate drainage water reuse is the most suitable environmental and
economical option to be adopted in 2050 water strategy.

References .6
Bakkum, R. (1998). DSS User Manual. Cairo: Delft Hydraulics.
(DRI,1998). National Policy For Drainage Water Reuse. Cairo: US Agency
for International Development-APRP - Water Policy Reform Activity.
El-Din, D. M. (2008). Description of El-Mahmoudia Canal and Improvements.
Cairo: Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project.
Henk Pelgrum, W. B. (2009). Remote Sensing Study for the Impact Monitoring
of the IntegratedIrrigation Improvement andManagement Project. Wagenigen,
Netherlands: Water Watch.
Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management. (2010). Condition survey
for Mahmoudia Canal. Cairo: Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.
N.El-Masry. (2005). Developing A Decision Support System Using Agro-
Economic Model of Egypt. Cairo: EMPOWERS Regional Symposium: End-
Users Ownership and Involvement in IWRM.
Pennekamp, H. a. (August 1993). Methodology of Water Resources Planni.
Delft: Delft Hydraulics.

27
‫‪Roest, C. (1998). REGIONAL WATER DISTRIBUTION IN THE NILE DELTA‬‬
‫‪OF. Wageningen, The Netherlands: Wageningen Universiteit.‬‬
‫‪UNDP-Egypt. (2005). Egyptian Governorates Human Development Reports-‬‬
‫‪Behera Governorate. Cairo: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).‬‬
‫‪Water Management Research Institute. (2008). Monitoring & Evaluation of‬‬
‫‪IIIMP in summer 2008. Cairo: National Water Research Center.‬‬
‫‪World Health Organization. (2009). Global health risks: mortality and burden‬‬
‫‪of disease attributable to selected major risks. Geneva, Switzerland: World‬‬
‫‪Health Organization.‬‬

‫تطوير نموذج لدعم إتخاذ القرار فى التخصيص الفعال والمتوافق بيئيا للمياه بزمام ترعة المحمودية‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫أ‪.‬د‪.‬محمد نور الدين‪ ,1‬د‪ .‬نهى دنيا‪ ,2‬د‪ .‬حسين الجمال‪, 3‬م‪.‬هشام الشاذلى‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫كلية الهندسة جامعة عين شمس‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫معهد الدراسات والبحوث البيئية‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫المركز القومى لبحوث المياه‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫وزارة الموارد المائية والرى‬
‫المستخلص‬
‫تم تطوير نماذج رياضية عديدة فى العقود األخ‪vv‬يرة لتس‪vv‬هيل عملي‪vv‬ة دعم إتخ‪vv‬اذ الق‪vv‬رار فى تخطي‪vv‬ط وإدارة‬
‫المياه‪ .‬وقد تقادمت كثير من هذه النماذج ولم تعد تس‪vv‬تخدم نتيج‪vv‬ة ألس‪vv‬باب تقني‪vv‬ة وإداري‪vv‬ة‪ .‬ومن أمثل‪vv‬ة ذل‪vv‬ك‬
‫نموذج دعم إتخاذ القرار إلدارة نوعية المياه الذى صممه معهد دلفت للهي‪v‬دروليكا فى ع‪v‬ام ‪ .1998‬وق‪v‬د تم‬
‫تطبيق هذا النموذج فى منطقة الدلتا إلدارة نوعية المياه‪ .‬وتلقى هذه الورقة البحثية الضوء على التع‪vv‬ديالت‬
‫التى تم إجراؤها فى هذا البحث على النس‪v‬خة القديم‪v‬ة من ه‪v‬ذا النم‪v‬وذج‪ .‬ونظ‪v‬را ألن ح‪v‬وض تقس‪v‬يم المي‪v‬اه‬
‫لترعة المحمودية بغرب الدلتا يعانى من سوء عدالة توزيع المياه على مستوى الترع الفرعية وعدم كفاي‪vv‬ة‬

‫‪28‬‬
‫مياه الرى وتدهور نوعية المياه واالستخدام التكميلى لمي‪v‬اه الص‪v‬رف ال‪v‬زراعى فى ال‪v‬رى رغم أنه‪v‬ا عالي‪v‬ة‬
‫الملوحة وملوثة بمتبقيات المبيدات والمغذيات واألحمال العضوية والمعادن الثقيلة‪ .‬لذلك تم تعديل وتطبيق‬
‫النم‪vv‬وذج المع‪vv‬دل لتمكين متخ‪vv‬ذى الق‪vv‬رار من تط‪vv‬بيق س‪vv‬يناريوهات مختلف‪vv‬ة إلع‪vv‬ادة تخص‪vv‬يص مي‪vv‬اه ال‪vv‬رى‬
‫والصرف الزراعى فى حوض تقسيم المياه لترعة المحمودية بناء على النواحى االقتص‪vv‬ادية واالجتماعي‪vv‬ة‬
‫والبيئية‪.‬‬
‫تم وضع وتحليل سيناريوهين إلس‪v‬تراتيجية المائي‪vv‬ة الحالي‪vv‬ة‪ 2017‬يقض‪v‬ى الس‪v‬يناريو األول بإع‪vv‬ادة توزي‪vv‬ع‬
‫إستخدام مياه الصرف الزراعى الحالى على أسس بيئية والسيناريو الثانى ي‪v‬درس أث‪v‬ر تط‪v‬بيق مش‪v‬روعات‬
‫تطوير الرى على مستوى كل من المساقى والمراوى‪ .‬أدى الس‪vv‬يناريو األول إلى تحس‪vv‬ين معام‪vv‬ل إس‪vv‬تخدام‬
‫المياه فى الزراعة وكذلك نوعي‪v‬ة مي‪v‬اه ال‪v‬رى ومع‪v‬دالت البخ‪v‬ر نتح وانتاجي‪v‬ة المحاص‪v‬يل بنس‪v‬بة ‪ %10‬فى‬
‫المناطق الجنوبية الغربية من حوض تقسيم المياه بينما أدى السيناريو المتفائ‪vv‬ل لمش‪vv‬روعات تط‪vv‬وير ال‪vv‬رى‬
‫الى زي‪vv‬ادة البخ‪vv‬ر نتح وإنتاجي‪vv‬ة المحاص‪vv‬يل فى نهاي‪vv‬ات ال‪vv‬ترع بنس‪vv‬بة ‪ %15‬وعلى الج‪vv‬انب االخ‪vv‬ر زادت‬
‫ملوحة مياه الصرف عند مخرج الحوض بنسبة ‪.%20,3‬‬
‫ك‪vv‬ذلك تم وض‪vv‬ع وتحلي‪vv‬ل ثالث‪vv‬ة س‪vv‬يناريوهات أخ‪vv‬رى لإلس‪vv‬تراتيجية المائي‪vv‬ة المس‪vv‬تقبلية ‪ 2050‬لت‪vv‬دبير‬
‫اإلحتياج‪vv‬ات المتزاي‪vv‬دة لمي‪vv‬اه الش‪vv‬رب لمدين‪vv‬ة االس‪vv‬كندرية ال‪vv‬تى س‪vv‬وف تتزاي‪vv‬د بنس‪vv‬بة ‪ %60‬ع‪vv‬ام ‪.2050‬‬
‫السيناريو األول هو تعظيم إستخدام مياه الصرف ال‪vv‬زراعى بالخل‪vv‬ط من المص‪vv‬ارف الرئيس‪vv‬ية والس‪vv‬يناريو‬
‫الثانى هو تعظيم إستخدام مياه الصرف ال‪v‬زراعى من المص‪v‬ارف الفرعي‪vv‬ة (الخل‪v‬ط الوس‪v‬يط) والث‪vv‬الث ه‪vv‬و‬
‫تحلية مياه البحر‪ .‬ولقد أظهرت نتائج النموذج أن السيناريوهان األول والثانى سوف يؤديان إلى تقليل مياه‬
‫الصرف الزراعى إلى كل من بح‪vv‬يرة إدك‪vv‬و وبح‪vv‬يرة مري‪vv‬وط بنس‪vv‬بة ‪%30‬و‪ %10‬على ال‪vv‬ترتيب‪ .‬وك‪vv‬ذلك‬
‫زادت ملوحة مياه الصرف ال‪v‬زراعى فى مخ‪v‬رج ح‪v‬وض تقس‪v‬يم المي‪vv‬اه بنس‪v‬بة ‪ %23‬و‪ %40‬فى ك‪vv‬ل من‬
‫الس‪vv‬يناريوهين األول والث‪vv‬انى على ال‪vv‬ترتيب‪ .‬ك‪vv‬ذلك أظه‪vv‬رت نت‪vv‬ائج النم‪vv‬وذج زي‪vv‬ادة فى ترك‪vv‬يزات التل‪vv‬وث‬
‫العضوى فى كل من مصرفى إدكو والعموم عند مخ‪vv‬رج ح‪vv‬وض تقس‪vv‬يم المي‪vv‬اه بنس‪vv‬بة ‪ %12‬و‪ %36‬على‬
‫الترتيب‪.‬‬

‫‪29‬‬
‫أظهر تحليل التكلفة والعائد للسيناريوهات الثالثة الخاصة باإلستراتيجية المائي‪vv‬ة ‪ 2050‬ش‪vv‬امال أخ‪vv‬ذ تكلف‪vv‬ة‬
‫التدهور البيئى فى اإلعتبار أن سيناريو تعظيم إس‪v‬تخدام مي‪v‬اه الص‪v‬رف ال‪v‬زراعى من المص‪v‬ارف الفرعي‪v‬ة‬
‫عن طريق الخلط الوسيط هو األكثر جدوى إقتصاديا للتطبيق كبديل إس‪vv‬تراتيجى لإلدارة المتكامل‪vv‬ة للمي‪vv‬اه‬
‫فى حوض تقسيم المياه‪.‬‬

‫‪30‬‬