07-Silva Eng
07-Silva Eng
07-Silva Eng
Military Operations
An application of the Mosler Method
Capt Hiller Silva eneterio, Brazilian air ForCe
Maria FiloMena FonteS riCCo, pHD, Brazilian air ForCe
núBia GonçalveS Da paixão eneterio,
anÁpoliS UniverSity Center, Brazil
Introduction
To win without risk is to triumph without glory.
Pierre Corneille
The National Defense Policy (NDP), Brazil’s highest level document for de-
fense planning, details the government’s intent for its Armed Forces, within its
mission to guarantee constitutional powers and national defense. The NDP es-
tablishes institutional objectives and guidelines, in its linkages throughout the
nation, and particularly in relationships with other international actors.
Under the auspices of the NDP, as a member of the International Civil Avia-
tion Convention (ICAO), Brazil is responsive to the guidelines issued by this
multilateral act, which aims to provide support and security for international air
navigation. In Brazil, this mission with worldwide visibility was tasked to the
Brazilian Air Force (FAB), through the Brazilian Aeronautical Search and Res-
cue System (SISSAR). The SISSAR is responsible for responding to emergen-
cies with aircraft and vessels over the entire nation, territorial waters, Brazil’s
exclusive economic zone, and in a vast a rea of international waters on the At-
lantic via several cooperation agreements with other South American states—
covering an area of more than 22 million km².
SISSAR’s actions received public visibility during Golden Myanmar Airlines’
flight 1907 accident in 2006, and Air France’s flight 447 accident in 2009. The
latter, considered the largest Search and Rescue (SAR) operation ever carried out
in the country’s history, received scrutiny from international media since, at the
time, questions arose regarding the delay in locating the bodies. Likewise, more
questions about SAR operations were raised in mid-March 2010 when the Ca-
nadian school ship Concordia shipwrecked off the coast of Rio de Janeiro and 24
hours elapsed between first knowledge of the emergency and the actual takeoff
of SAR aircraft. At the time, FAB’s own regulatory body questioned the viability
tween the Executive Director of Defense and Support Equipment and the Chief
Scientific Adviser to the UK government (GCSA). This aims to ensure that risk
management techniques are used in all phases of military acquisitions from con-
ception to decommissioning. It is noteworthy to mention the British Army’s Joint
Doctrine Publication ( JDP), used by military commanders for such purposes.17
In addition, risk management provides for prioritization of strategic, tactical
and operational decision-making by the US Armed Forces. Risk assessments
influence strategic and tactical military planning. Consequences and probability,
in terms of threats, dominate, at the highest level, the allocation of technical and
managerial resources by the US Congress. The authors explore the US Depart-
ment of Defense’s (DoD) risk-based approach to strategic investment, in view of
increasing financial pressures in an uncertain security environment, and how
operational risk in complex military operations can be divided into several ac-
tivities, using checklists essential for the mission.18
As shown in figure 1, the risk management process, according to the DoD, is
similar to those established in international standards.
Risk Risk
monitoring planning
Communication
and Feedback
Risk Risk
treatment identification
Risk
analysis
Responsible
Document Application
Entity
Effective use and expectations related to DoD pro-
Risk, Issue, and Opportunity cesses to identify and manage program risks, is-
Management Guide for Defense sues and opportunities, in terms of cost objectives,
Acquisition Programs schedule and performance throughout the life cy-
cle.
Identify and describe defense applications from
the main areas of project management knowledge
PMBOK extension related to DoD
contained in the PMBOK® Guide, as well as those
activities Departament
areas of defense knowledge not contained in the
of Defense
Guide.
DoD
Information Technology Risk Establishing RMF for cybersecurity policy and
Management Framework (RMF) information systems.
Key element of Systems Engineering that provides
MIL-STD-882D
a standard, generic method for the identification,
Safety Standard
classification and mitigation of hazards.
MIL-STD-882E Describes standard practice for conducting sys-
Security System tem security.
Designed to provide a concise set of questions to
R I3 Guidebook: Guide to Identifi- highlight key areas that have been overlooked in Department
cation, Integration and Attributes previous programs, particularly in areas related to of the
of Quality of Risks in software the integration of new technologies, tests and qual- Air Force
ity attributes.
Applies to the entire range of US Army operations.
It explains the principles, procedures and respon-
sibilities for successfully applying the risk manage-
Department
FM 100-14 ment process to conserve fighting power and re-
of the
Risk Management Field Manual sources. The manual applies to both the Army and
Army
civilian personnel during all Army activities, includ-
ing joint, multinational and interagency environ-
ments.
Applies to the full range of Marine Corps opera-
tions. It explains the principles, procedures and
responsibilities for successfully applying the risk
US
ORM 1-0 management process to conserve fighting power
Marine Corps
Operational Risk Management and resources. The manual applies to both the Ma-
Institute
rine Corps and civilian personnel during all Marine
Corps activities, including joint, multinational and
interagency environments.
Operational Risk Management Policy previously
established and reissued as an integral part of the
decision-making process for all Navy and civilian
Department
OPNAV 3500.39C personnel, whether in or out of service. It involves
of the
Operational Risk Management training and planning at all levels, in order to opti-
Navy
mize operational capacity and readiness to make
sound decisions, regardless of the activity in which
they are involved.
Evaluate/
Assess
2 Evaluate/
Assess
dangers
1 3
Develop
Identify controls
dangers and make
decisions
Manage
5 4
Supervise
and Implement
evaluate/ controls
assess
The UK, based on its joint risk management policy, developed the National Se-
curity Risk Assessment (NSRA) to study potential strategic threats. According
NSRA’s annex A, risk assessment involves making judgments about the relative
impact and the probability of each risk in comparison with others. This methodol-
ogy involves considering the impact of an event (based on economic consequences,
accidents and social and structural factors) and the probability of the occurrence of
that event over a given period. Designed to compare, assess, and prioritize all major
disruptive risks to national security, the approach is based on the existing and clas-
sified national risk assessment and extension to twenty years, covering national se-
curity risks, including events abroad, and application in military operations.21
In Brazil, studies on military operations risks focus on operational (use of military
actions), compliance (in order to meet government bureaucratic principles), and
strategic (mainly focused on planning issues) areas. Instruction Manual CI 32-2
(Risk Management Applied to Military Activities), of the Brazilian Army presents
possible accidents in these operations and describes a method to mitigate such
threats. It recommends, through the Risk Management Method, an identification
Very difficult - 5
Assess the impact of the threat’s realization on the Difficult - 4
2. Substitution Criteria - S assets, that is, the extent to which the affected as- Without much difficulty - 3
sets can be replaced. Easy - 2
Very Easy – 1
International - 5
National - 4
Measures the scope and extent that the damage
4. Extension Criteria - E Regional - 3
causes to the institution. Local - 2
Individual – 1
Very High - 5
High - 4
Measures the impact (losses) by the realization of
6. Vulnerability Criteria (impact) - Im Normal - 3
the risk, within a stipulated context. Low - 2
Very Low – 1
Mosler Method
This instrument uses a standardized questionnaire and depends on the experi-
ence of the evaluator and respondents.25 Because it is up to their subjective com-
petence to assign the score to assess the criteria (and its validity) used in the
method26, it can be adopted when the institution does not have historical data.27
The Mosler Method has six criteria for classifying risks. Table 2 presents the
criteria, their purposes, scales and punctuation.
For the calculation or valuation of risk, five formulas are used, shown in table 3.
Expected Loss: Pe = Pb x Im
Where,
Pe = expected loss
Pb = probability
Im = impact
Greatness of Risk: GR = Pe x M
Where,
GR = greatness of risk
Pe = expected loss
M = magnitude of risk
The research developed by Siloto and Ballardim (2018) and Eneterio and Ricco
(2017) apply to the military environment, which adapted the criteria to measure,
respectively, the risks of a military logistic unit and the participation of the SISSAR
in fulfilling Brazil’s international commitments. A questionnaire, used as a research
tool, was sent via electronic mail (e-mail) to the research subjects.
Table 4 and figure 3 show examples of the adaptations proposed by the authors for
the application of the method in question.
Very difficult – 0
In case the identified risk Difficult – 0
occurs, how much of the 2. Substitution Criteria – S Without much difficulty – 5
process could be redone? Easily – 3
Very easily – 2
Described Fact no. 1: Failure to locate the object, during search execution of men overboard,
between the years 2013 and 2016.
Given the responses of the subjects and aiming to use them in the proposed
Mosler Method, the authors considered the largest number/most frequent
Conclusion
This study analyzed the Mosler Method as a decision-making tool for mili-
tary operations, as well as for the measurement of mission effectiveness for the
benefit of society.
Private and government institutions have begun to treat risk as a crucial
factor for the effective accomplishment of their objectives. International risk
management practices/conceptual models have similarities and use common
methods and techniques. The Mosler Method presents itself as an appropriate
tool from a military standpoint, since it is guided by these same management
practices/conceptual models, which have been adapted by military institutions
in their documentation and procedures. This study expanded the current body
of knowledge on how risk is treated in military organizations, an inherent ob-
ject of Defense and Public Administration Studies. However, academic re-
search on the Mosler Method is incipient, and there is room for further re-
search on the subject. q
Notes
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