Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys
Performance highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 2QFY12 8,099 2,514 31.0 1,906 1QFY12 7,485 2,176 29.1 1,722 % chg (qoq) 8.2 15.5 197bp 10.7 2QFY11 6,947 2,315 33.3 1,737 % chg (yoy) 16.6 8.6 (229)bp 9.7
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 153,325 1.0 3,494/2169 131,550 5 16,958 5,099 INFY.BO INFY@IN
`2,681 `2,836
12 Months
For 2QFY2012, Infosys reported results that were in-line with our as well as streets expectations on the revenue front; however, the company exceeded expectations on the margin and bottom-line fronts. The company has guided for US$1,802mn1,840mn revenue for 3QFY2012, which implies growth of 3.25.4% qoq. Revenue growth guidance for FY2012 was changed to 17.1-19.1% yoy from 1820% yoy growth due to cross-currency movement; however, on the positive side, the company has increased its USD EPS guidance for FY2012 by 4.5% to US$3.023.06. We recommend Accumulate on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 2QFY2012, Infosys reported revenue of US$1,746mn, up 4.5% qoq, aided by 4.5% qoq volume growth. In INR terms, revenue came in at `8,099cr, up by whopping 8.2% qoq. The companys EBITDA margin increased by 197bp to 31.0% as the wage hike impact got absorbed and steep currency movement aided margins. The most remarkable development during the quarter was the addition of a client in the US$300mn plus revenue bracket (moved from the US$200mn bracket) for the first time after 4QFY2009. Outlook and valuation: Management commentary has turned cautious as the company is witnessing delays in decision making, especially for long-term deals. We expect the company to record USD revenue growth of 19.3% and 14.1% yoy in FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. We have revised our INR assumption downwards, following a steep 10% depreciation against USD over the past month, for FY2012 and FY2013 from 45.0 and 44.5 to 46.0 for both, respectively. This has led to INR revenue growth to be higher than USD revenue growth at 20.7% yoy for FY2012 and 14.0% yoy for FY2013. On the EBIT front, for FY2012, we expect margins to take a hit by 146bp yoy to 28.0%. Over FY2011-13E, we expect a CAGR of 13.5% and 14.8% in EBITDA and PAT, respectively. At the CMP of `2,681, the stock is trading at 19.2x FY2012E and 17.0x FY2013E EPS. We value the company at 18x FY2013E of `157.5 and recommend Accumulate with target price of `2,836. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 16.0 10.7 36.7 36.6
3m (7.9) (4.1)
FY2009 21,693 30.0 5,990 28.6 33.2 104.6 25.6 8.0 31.2 29.0 6.6 19.8
FY2010 22,742 4.8 6,219 3.8 34.5 109.5 24.5 6.4 25.8 25.0 6.0 17.5
FY2011 27,501 20.9 6,823 9.7 32.6 119.5 22.4 5.6 25.0 25.9 5.0 15.2
FY2012E 33,187 20.7 7,965 16.7 30.9 139.4 19.2 4.7 24.2 25.2 4.0 12.9
FY2013E 37,821 14.0 8,999 13.0 30.6 157.5 17.0 3.8 22.5 24.1 3.4 11.1
Srishti Anand
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6820 srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Ankita Somani
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbrkoing.com
2QFY12 8,099 4,511 3,588 1,074 2,514 233 2,281 387 2,668 762 1,906 33.4 44.3 31.0 28.2 22.5
1QFY12 7,485 4,353 3,132 956 2,176 224 1,952 443 2,395 673 1,722 30.2 41.8 29.1 26.1 21.7
% chg (qoq) 8.2 3.6 14.6 12.3 15.5 4.1 16.9 11.4 13.2 10.7 10.7 246bp 197bp 209bp 74bp
2QFY11 6,947 3,754 3,193 878 2,315 217 2,098 267 2,365 628 1,737 30.4 46.0 33.3 30.2 24.1
% chg (yoy) 16.6 20.2 12.4 22.3 8.6 7.4 8.7 12.8 21.3 9.7 9.7 (166)bp (229)bp (204)bp (162)bp
1HFY12 15,584 8,864 6,720 2,030 4,690 457 4,233 830 5,063 1,435 3,628 63.6 43.1 30.1 27.2 22.1
1HFY11 13,145 7,195 5,950 1,673 4,277 424 3,853 506 4,359 1,134 3,225 56.5 45.3 32.5 29.3 23.6
% chg (yoy) 18.5 23.2 12.9 21.3 9.6 7.8 9.8 16.1 26.5 12.5 12.6 (215)bp (245)bp (215)bp (152)bp
(0.2) (2.0) 3QFY11 Offshore (1.4) 1QFY12 Total volume growth 2QFY12
4QFY11 Onsite
9.3
7.2
4.7 4.0
5.0 4.5
3.1
1QFY12
2QFY12
Volume growth
quarter, the company signed 17 new platform deals, out of which 10 were for Finnacle.
% to revenue % growth qoq % growth yoy 60.9 17.1 21.6 5.8 8.2 5.4 2.8 31.2 24.7 6.0 0.5 7.9 4.2 3.4 0.3 6.1 11.0 1.2 2.7 14.2 4.5 4.5 2.8 2.4 (0.5) 161.2 (0.5) (8.6) 11.0 4.5 16.0 27.8 7.4 8.5 25.9 11.6 20.3 15.0 11.8 23.1 217.8 30.6 15.4 61.5 (0.9)
Industry wise, revenue of FSI, the companys anchor vertical contributing 35.3% to revenue, grew by 4.2% qoq, led by 4.9% qoq growth in revenue from banking and financial services. Revenue from insurance grew by 1.6% qoq. In CC terms, revenue from FSI grew by 4.8% qoq. Going ahead, the company is seeing traction in this vertical from risk compliance, fraud prevention and regulatory kind of work. Manufacturing (contributed 20.2% to revenue) registered 3.5% qoq growth in revenue. In CC terms, revenue from this vertical grew by 3.7% qoq. The company is seeing IT spending coming in the manufacturing industry segment from clients in terms of work related to harmonising processes and transformation to gain cost efficiency and simplicity. The RCL segment (contributed 22.9% to revenue) emerged as the major growth driver for the company, growing by 5.4% qoq. Growth was majorly led by whopping 71.0% qoq growth in healthcare and 7.3% qoq in life sciences. Revenue from retail and CPG grew by 1.2% qoq. In CC terms, revenue from RCL grew strongly by 6.0% qoq. In this industry segment, retail is gaining good traction on account of spend related to digital commerce, digital marketing and clients targeting to go global. In addition, CPG companies are investing significantly in package implementation kind of services. The ECS segment (contributed 21.6% to revenue) posted 4.5% qoq growth in its revenue, led by 4.5% qoq growth in revenue from energy and utilities. In CC terms, revenue from this segment increased by 5.3% qoq. Going ahead, the company expects its deal pipeline to pick up for the telecom industry segment, with more spend coming in from the wireless space during the quarter.
The company has 12 large deals in its pipeline currently. The company signed two business operations deals in the FSI space and two consulting deals in the manufacturing space.
% to revenue 35.3 28.2 7.1 20.2 22.9 15.6 1.7 3.8 1.8 21.6 5.7 10.4 5.5
% growth qoq 4.2 4.9 1.6 3.5 5.4 1.2 (1.3) 7.3 71.0 4.5 4.5 2.5 8.4
% growth yoy 16.3 22.2 (2.5) 24.7 32.4 26.4 9.1 44.5 137.5 (1.0) 6.0 (9.0) 9.6
In terms of geographies, revenue growth was led by Rest of the World, which posted 7.3% qoq growth in CC terms. Revenue from North America and Europe grew by 6.3% and 2.1% qoq in CC terms, respectively. The company added 10 new clients in Europe in 2QFY2012.
15.6
9.7 7.5 4.7 4.2 3.7 1.6 2.1 5.1 2.4 2.1 6.3 7.3
4 0
Utilisation rate, including trainees, inched up by 60bp qoq to 70.2%, as trainees hired a couple of quarters back turned billable in this quarter. Utilisation rate, excluding trainees, also increased by 240bp qoq to 77.3% during the quarter.
81.2
75 74.3 70 65 60 2QFY11 3QFY11 Including trainees 4QFY11 1QFY12 Excluding trainees 2QFY12 72.6 68.4 69.6 70.2
Margins decline
The companys EBITDA and EBIT margins improved by 197bp and 209bp qoq to 31.0% and 28.2%, respectively, as the effect of wage hikes given in 1QFY2012 (1012% for offshore employees and 23% for onsite employees) got absorbed and depreciating INR aided margins.
(BP)
29 28 27 26 2QFY12
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
For FY2012, management had previously guided for a 250bp yoy decline in EBIT margin, which now has been changed to just 85bp yoy, taking into account the INR movement against USD (the companys assumed rate is `48.98).
US$300mn plus
Source: Company, Angel Research
(%)
(7)
30
Guidance
The company decreased its FY2012 USD revenue growth guidance to 17.1191% yoy to US$708bn7.20bn mainly due to cross-currency movement. However, on the positive side, the company increased its USD EPS guidance to US$3.023.06 from US$2.882.92 given during 1QFY2012 results, 15.316.8% yoy growth vs. the previous guidance of 10.011.5% yoy growth. For 3QFY2012, management has guided for 3.25.4% qoq growth in USD revenue to US$1.802bn1.840bn, which is in-line with our expectations and indicates that management is looking at back-ended growth (in 2HFY2012) in FY2012. On the EBIT margin front, Infosys was previously expecting a 250bp yoy decline in its margin, but now this has been changed to only a 50-100bp yoy decline after adjusting for INR movement against USD. The major factors of the 50100bp yoy decline are: 1) 80bp negative impact due to utilisation coming off by 200bp yoy on account of 75% fresher hiring in 1HFY2012 to undertake pyramid rationalisation, 2) 110bp negative impact due to uncovered impact of annual wage hikes as well as promotions and 3) 90-140bp positive impact due to INR depreciation against USD assuming average rate of 47.56 for FY2012 (previously taking 80bp negative impact due to INR appreciation against USD assuming average rate of 44.5 for FY2012).
(`)
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-11
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
26x
22x
18x
14x
10x
10
Oct-11
11
12
13
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 3.4 74 3.4 70 3.6 78 4.2 78 4.4 78 29.0 57.4 31.2 25.0 58.7 25.8 25.9 56.1 25.0 25.2 56.9 24.2 24.1 58.0 22.5 0.9 1.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 31.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 25.8 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 24.2 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 22.5 105 118 23.5 336 109 125 25.0 421 119 134 34.9 477 139 156 34.9 576 158 177 29.9 698 25.6 22.7 8.0 0.9 6.6 19.8 6.4 24.5 21.4 6.4 0.9 6.0 17.5 5.0 22.4 20.0 5.6 1.3 5.0 15.2 4.4 19.2 17.1 4.7 1.3 4.0 12.9 3.6 17.0 15.2 3.8 1.1 3.4 11.1 2.9 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
14
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Infosys No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
15