Official LDC US Latino GDP
Official LDC US Latino GDP
Official LDC US Latino GDP
Authors:
Dennis Hoffman, Ph.D. and José A. Jurado, Ph.D.
Arizona State University
Founded in 1852 and headquartered in San Francisco, Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) provides banking,
investment and mortgage products and services, as well as consumer and commercial Finance, through
7,700 locations, more than 13,000 ATMs, and the internet (wellsfargo.com). With approximately 262,000
team members, Wells Fargo serves one in three households in the United States. With its corporate
philanthropy, Wells Fargo aims to pave a path to stability and financial success for underserved commu-
nities by focusing on housing affordability, small business growth, and financial health, among other local
community needs. In 2018, Wells Fargo donated $444 million to nearly 11,000 nonprofits. For 10 consecutive years, Wells Fargo
has held the honor of No. 1 in workplace giving by United Way Worldwide. Wells Fargo team members also actively support
communities by donating more than 2 million hours of volunteer time in the last year. News, insights, and more information
on the company’s overall corporate responsibility are available at Wells Fargo Stories and www.wellsfargo.com/impact.
A LETTER FROM OUR
CO-FOUNDER AND CHAIRMAN
As a CEO, I know how important it is to be aware of the latest economic trends and opportunities. In addition how important
it is to have good news in a somewhat downbeat market. A major trend today is that global economic growth is slowing,
due in large part to the effects of the Chinese economy. So the big question is, “Where is the opportunity today for improved
margins and sustained growth for the next few decades?” The answer is, the U.S. Latino cohort, which is the fifth largest
economy in the world embedded inside the United States of America.
We know this, thanks in large part, to The 2023 Official LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report™, about to be released, which shows the
latest Latino Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $3.2 trillion, and the Latino Purchasing Power (LPP) is an impressive $3.4 trillion.
If U.S. Latinos were a country, they would be the 5th largest economy in the world, only ranking behind the U.S., China,
Germany, and Japan. U.S. Latinos are not a niche market, nor small, nor as sometimes described as a market of the future.
It is already the third fastest growing economy on the planet, and may soon rival China’s growth rates.
The growth trajectory of the Latino economy is remarkable, as over the past decade, Latino annualized income growth has
outpaced non-Latinos by a significant margin, with a 4.7% increase compared to 1.9%. This pattern is not limited to income
growth; Latino consumption and purchasing power have been growing 2.1x to 2.4x faster than non-Latinos.
From 2011 to 2021 U.S. Latinos were responsible for 20.9% of the real GDP growth in the United States. U.S. Latinos are
leading the growth of our country’s GDP, entrepreneurship, consumption, innovation, productivity, and labor force. That is
why I believe investing in this cohort is investing in the present and future of all Americans.
And all of this has been happening with what I characterize as an under-investment in the cohort, whether through capital
or engagement of Latinos in boards, in senior management, as well as in supply chains. I retained Bain & Company to analyze
the percent of capital flowing into the Latino market two years ago, and they found that less than 1% of invested capital
by VCs and PEs was flowing to Latino-owned companies. Likewise, the percentage of U.S. Latinos on boards and senior
management also reflects dramatic under-engagement.
I like to postulate what growth rates could be like if the deployment of capital, talent, and suppliers were accelerated based
on competencies, capabilities, and innovation. How much more growth could we capture as we invested thirty years ago in
China, twenty years ago in India, and what we could be investing today in our own country through this cohort?
That’s why I believe investing in this cohort would be a further accelerant of opportunity in our country and as a global
growth leader.
Certainly, the U.S. Latino cohort is the future of our country as the youngest cohort in the U.S. The most common age group
is 10 to 14, compared to 58 among non-Latino Anglo-Americans.
They are aging into the labor force at a greater rate than any other cohort, accounting for nearly 80% of net labor force
growth. U.S. Latinos also have the highest labor force participation rate, a full 5.4% higher rate than all others.
Also driving their productivity growth has been their increased educational attainment. During the past decade, individuals
with a bachelor’s degree or higher grew by 6.8% among Latinos, while non-Latinos saw a growth rate of only 2.8%.
The Latino workforce in the U.S. is pivotal to the success of state economies. To illustrate, in Florida, out of 1.6 million new
jobs, Latinos filled over 900 thousand, accounting for 58% of the total. In Texas, Latinos occupied 1.2 million out of 2 million
new jobs or 59%. In California, a staggering 87% of the new jobs, which is 1.2 million out of 1.3 million, were taken by
Latinos. Washington, a hub for cutting edge tech, saw 160 thousand new jobs (out of a total of 480 thousand or 33.8% of
total) filled by Latinos. Arizona is another case in point: out of 520 thousand new jobs, Latinos were able to fill 310 thousand,
or 60% of the total.
Dennis Hoffman
Director, L. William Seidman Research Institute
Arizona State University
José A. Jurado
Principal Investigator
Research Economist, L. William Seidman Research Institute
Arizona State University
For more information/media contact: Shay Moser, W. P. Carey School of Business, shay.moser@asu.edu
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
STATE ECONOMIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The LDC has been producing the groundbreaking annual LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report since 2017, focusing predominantly
on the role played by this growing demographic as an engine for expenditure. In this year’s report—the sixth annual
LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report—we are continuing to innovate by also studying the unique role the U.S. Latino community
plays as producer of goods and services. Thanks to our new partnership with Arizona State University (ASU), this
year we expand the scope of our analysis: deepening our understanding of state Latino economies, identifying rapidly
emerging Latino markets, and preparing businesses to better understand their customer value.
We are proud to present to you this year’s LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report newly designed to serve a variety of interests. Domestic
businesses involved in marketing and distribution will find value in understanding the vast purchasing power of the Latino
community. Exporters can find it useful to compare Latino GDP production with the total output of other countries. Govern-
ment officials, policymakers, and think tanks will gain added insight from understanding the complete range of contributions,
thus enabling them to track historical growth patterns and make comparisons with the non-Latino population.
Last year’s LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report reflected a U.S. Latino economy valued at $2.8 trillion in GDP. This year’s report shows
the U.S. Latino economy has continued its remarkable growth and is now a $3.2 trillion economy. It is, in fact, growing two
and a half times faster than the non-Latino equivalent (Figure 1).
3
2
2
1
1
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Latino Non-Latino
A. Trillions of current dollars. GDI stands for “Gross Domestic B. Real annual growth rates. Figures correspond to percentage
Income.” Latino GDP is estimated using an expenditure approach. growth between 2011 and 2021.
Because of the major disruptions caused by COVID in the data collection
process of the American Community Survey, we have created 2020 estimates
by interpolating values from the years 2019 and 2021.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey; and U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Latinos’ economic influence continues to expand rapidly. From 2011 to 2021, their income grew at an annualized rate of
4.7% compared to 1.9% for non-Latinos, purchases made “by and on behalf of Latinos” grew at 4% (vs 1.9% for non-Latinos),
and Latino purchasing power did so at 3.9% (vs 1.6% for non-Latinos), highlighting this community’s significant role in
propelling the U.S. economy forward (Figure 1B). As this cohort prospers, it will also free trillions of dollars of new investment
that will power the next generation of American entrepreneurship. Internationally, the U.S. Latino economy would rank
as the world’s 5th largest. Between 2011 and 2021, it was the third-fastest growing among major economies, trailing only
China (7.7%) and India (6.2%. See Figure 2).
A. The world’s leading economies in 2021 compared to the U.S. B. Real, annualized percent GDP growth among the world’s leading
Latino GDP as estimated from expenditures made “by and on economies between 2011 and 2021 compared to the growth in
behalf” of members of this demographic. Figures correspond to the U.S. Latino GDP as measured from expenditures made “by and
trillions of current U.S. dollars. on behalf” of members of this demographic. Figure correspond to
chained growth rates.
Sources: World Bank; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey;
and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
How much U.S. Latinos contribute to our country’s GDP is primarily determined by their share in the U.S. population, their
labor force participation (highest among all cohorts), and their overall productivity. Human capital, driven foremost by
progress in educational attainment, is key to the rapid development of the U.S. Latino economy. Hence, this year’s report
also pays close attention to the solid progress Latinos have made in the classroom as well.
10
600
8
400 6
4
200
2
0 0
ia
ey
do
a
a
ta
ta
ne
on
s
re
xa
oi
sa
r
gi
id
an
gi
e
to
ah
rn
Yo
ko
ko
hi
rs
izo
ss
ai
ra
eg
in
or
r
or
an
Te
ng
di
ifo
Flo
Id
ps
Je
ne
Da
Da
lo
Ill
w
Ge
Ge
Or
Ar
In
k
hi
m
l
Co
Ne
Ar
n
Ca
rth
as
Te
Ha
Ne
ut
W
No
So
w
Ne
A. States with the largest Latino GDP in 2021, as measured by B. States with the highest real annualized percentage GDP growth
income received from productive activities. Figures correspond to rates between 2011 and 2021.
billions of current dollars.
Sources: World Bank; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey;
and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Lastly, the 2023 U.S. Latino GDP report, for the first time, provides a breakdown of the Latino economy across all states
in the U.S. Significant Latino economies exist in California, Texas, and Florida (among other states), amounting to $682
billion, $465 billion, and $240 billion respectively (Figure 3). The California Latino economy alone would rank as the 21st
largest in the world, nestled between Poland and Switzerland.
Firstly, we highlight the significance of Latinos as consumption drivers by reporting the total value of purchases made “by
and on behalf of” Latinos. This method closely aligns with past LDC reports, and hence is referred to as U.S. Latino GDP.
Secondly, we assess the income earned by Latinos from their productive activities, which we denote as Gross Domestic
Income (GDI). Finally, we estimate the Latino Purchasing Power (LPP), which represents the combined ability of Latinos
to purchase goods and services, regardless of the products’ origin, among all Latinos residing in the U.S. The methodology
behind these estimations can be found in Section VI.
These various estimators are tailored to meet the needs of our diverse readers. For instance, LPP will be particularly pertinent
for marketing teams interested in understanding the size of the Latino market for goods and services. Policymakers,
think tanks, and exporters might also find these estimates useful for comparison purposes. Notably, our GDI measurement
facilitates estimating the Latino economy’s size at the state level. These statewide estimates can be found in Section V.
3
2
2
1
1
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Latino Non-Latino
A. Trillions of current dollars. GDI stands for “Gross Domestic B. Real annual growth rates. Figures correspond to percentage
Income.” Latino GDP is estimated using an expenditure approach. growth between 2011 and 2021.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey; and U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Between 2011 and 2021, the U.S. Latino economy expanded significantly, playing an integral role in our nation’s economic
progress. In 2021, Latino income in the U.S. amounted to $2.5 trillion with their expenditure value topping $3.2 trillion.
Latino Purchasing Power was measured at $3.4 trillion. More impressive still are the associated growth rates: income grew at
a real annualized rate of 4.7% compared to 1.9% for non-Latinos. Consumption and purchasing power also saw impressive
growth rates, effectively 2.1-to-2.4 times faster than non-Latino counterparts, highlighting this community’s significant role
in propelling the U.S. economy forward (Figure 4). Nationally, Latinos contributed 20.9% of real GDP growth between 2011
and 2021. Measured by GDP, the U.S. Latino economy would rank as the world’s 5th largest. From 2011 to 2021, it was the
third-fastest growing among major economies, trailing only China (7.7%) and India (6.2%. See Figure 5).
A. The world’s leading economies in 2021 compared to the U.S. B. Real, annualized percent GDP growth among the world’s leading
Latino GDP as estimated from expenditures made “by and on economies between 2011 and 2021 compared to the growth in
behalf” of members of this demographic. Figures correspond to the U.S. Latino GDP as measured from expenditures made “by and
trillions of current dollars. on behalf” of members of this demographic. Figure correspond to
chained growth rates.
Sources: World Bank; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey;
and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Table 1 shows that the largest industrial component of the U.S. Latino economy is public administration, accounting for
$438.8 billion or 15.6% of value added in 2021 by that industry, followed by manufacturing ($288 billion/11.5%), real estate
and rental and leasing ($278.6 billion/9.5%), health care and social assistance ($238.7 billion/13.7%), and wholesale trade
($232.6 billion/16.1%). This broad industry spread demonstrates the Latino economy’s diversified nature.
The Latino GDI is primarily fueled by wage and salary compensation ($1.67 trillion), followed by proprietors’ income ($241
billion), and net taxes on production and income ($222.6 billion. See Table 2). These components have witnessed substantial
growth rates from 2011 to 2021, notably higher than those in the non-Latino economy. Income from dividends, interest,
and rent has experienced annualized growth rates of 7.63% over the time period of reference reaching a valuation of $185.1
billion in 2021 (Table 3).
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $278.6 8.6% $2,926.7 12.6% 9.5%
Health Care and Social Assistance $238.7 7.4% $1,735.8 7.4% 13.7%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services $166.7 5.1% $1,843.5 7.9% 9.0%
Other Services (Except Public Administration) $79.3 2.4% $469.9 2.0% 16.9%
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction $38.3 1.2% $333.9 1.4% 11.5%
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing and Hunting $23.7 0.7% $206.6 0.9% 11.5%
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey; and
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
2011 2021
Dividend, Interest, and Rent $2,439.3 $73.2 $2,366.0 $3,921.3 $185.1 $3,736.2
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey; and
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Note: Figures denote real annualized growth rates of individual components between 2011 and 2021.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce,
Census Bureau, American Community Survey; and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Consumer Expenditure Survey.
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
U.S. Latino Non-Latino Latino Non-Latino
A. Change in population in millions between 2010 and 2021, B. Percentage change in population between 2010 and 2021,
by Hispanic or Latino origin. by Hispanic or Latino origin.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, U.S. Census.
It is noteworthy that the Latino demographic is significantly younger than other groups, with the majority of them being
under 25 and the most common age range being 10-to-14 years, compared to 60-to-64 years among non-Latinos. The
younger age of Latinos, paired with their significant population growth, results in this group comprising nearly all new
additions to the 18-to-64 age bracket cohort (Figure 7). As older non-Latino workers retire, younger Latinos are stepping
into the labor market, contributing tax revenue and boosting spending.
8 8
Latino
6 6
Non-Latino
4 4
2 2
0 0
U.S. Latino Non-Latino
0-5
5-9
-14
-19
-24
-29
-34
-39
-44
-49
-54
-59
-64
-69
-74
-79
-84
+
85
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Age Group
A. Population distribution. Figures correspond to the share of the B. Contribution to the change in the population of the 18-to-64
total population in each age group in 2021 and add up to 100%. cohort between 2010 and 2021. Figures correspond to millions
of individuals.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, U.S. Census.
70 6.0
Q Latino
Non-Latino
5.5
68
5.0
66
4.5
64
4.0
62 3.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
A. Labor force participation among those 16 years and older, as B. Labor force participation premium, which is defined as the
percentage of the total respective population. difference in labor force participation rate between U.S. Latinos
and non-Latinos.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
Finally, Latinos have made strides in education, with the number of individuals holding a bachelor’s degree or higher
increasing by 6.8% on an annualized basis between 2011 and 2021, compared to 2.8% for non-Latinos, a 2.4-fold higher
growth rate. The total number of Latinos with advanced degrees, however, remains below the national mean (Figure 9).
Thus, there is still significant upside in terms of increased productivity. This combination of robust population growth, high
labor force participation, and increasing human capital will continue to drive the dynamic growth witnessed so far.
7
11
26 6
10 5
24 4
9
3
Non-Latino
22 2
8
Latino 1
20 7 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 U.S. Latino Non-Latino
A. Fraction of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher. B. Annualized percentage growth rate in the number of individuals
with a bachelor’s degree or higher between 2011 and 2021.
STATE ECONOMIES
200
200
600
600
150
150
400
400
100
100
200
200 50
50
00 00
aia
ss
ada
s is
iaia
ihoio
aia
eyey
nn
rkrk
aia
ss
ada
s is
aia
ihoio
aia
eyey
nn
rkrk
xaxa
xaxa
tgoto
tgoto
oio
oio
grig
nrin
anan
grig
nrin
nain
YoYo
YoYo
rsrs
rsrs
roidri
roidri
inin
inin
TeTe
OhO
TeTe
OhO
oero
oro
oero
oro
JeJe
JeJe
lvlv
lvav
IllIll
wew
nign
IllIll
wew
nign
laiflif
FlFol
laiflif
FlFol
snysy
syly
GeG
GeG
wew
hih
eww
hih
NeN
NeN
asas
CaC
nsn
asas
CaC
nenn
en n
NeN
NeN
WW
WW
PeP
PeP
A: Latino Gross Domestic Income in 2021 among the 10 largest B. Additions to real state GDI by Latinos between 2011 and 2021.
U.S. states measured by GDP. Figures correspond to billions of Figures correspond to billions of dollars from 2021.
current dollars.
40
40 88
77
30
30 66
55
20
20 44
33
10
10 22
11
00 00
aia
ss
ada
s is
iaia
ihoio
aia
eyey
nn
rkrk
aia
ss
s is
aia
ihoio
aia
eyey
nn
rkrk
xaxa
xaxa
ad
tgoto
tgoto
oio
oio
grig
nrin
avnan
grig
nrin
nin
YoYo
YoYo
rsrs
rsrs
roidri
roidri
inin
inin
va a
TeTe
OhO
TeTe
OhO
oero
oro
oero
oro
JeJe
JeJe
IllIll
nign
wew
IllIll
wew
nign
laiflif
FlFol
laiflif
FlFol
ylyvl
ylyvl
GeG
GeG
wew
hih
wew
hih
ns s
ns s
NeN
NeN
asas
CaC
asas
CaC
nenn
nenn
NeN
NeN
WW
WW
PeP
PeP
C: Share of real state GDI growth between 2011 and 2021 that D. Real annualized percent growth rates of Latino state GDI
is attributable to Latinos. between 2011 and 2021.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; and U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
Figure 10B further analyzes these data, revealing the actual economic contributions of Latinos to state GDIs from 2011 to
2021, based on 2021-dollar values. Over this decade, Latino contributions to GDI reached $250 billion in California, $166
billion in Texas, $104 billion in Florida, and $51.5 billion in New York. Latinos were responsible for 27.1% of California’s
growth, 38.9% of Texas’s, 30.6% of Florida’s, and 13.2% of New York’s (Figure 10C).
ta
ta
ne
na
on
s
re
sa
gi
se
ah
a surprising surge in its Latino economy. It grew at a real,
ko
ko
hi
a
ai
eg
or
an
es
di
Id
ps
M
Da
Da
Ge
Or
nn
In
k
m
Ar
h
r th
Te
Ha
ut
annual rate of 11.8%, slightly outpacing its northern
No
So
w
Ne
neighbor, and significantly higher than virtually any Real annualized percentage GDI growth between 2011 and 2021.
national economy, including those in Southeast Asia. Data sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census
Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS).
Businesses operating in these areas must stay ahead of these
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; and
substantial changes to ensure they remain relevant and able U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
to meet the needs of their evolving customer base.
OTHER INDICATORS OF
SIGNIFICANT LATINO PROGRESS
13 3
12 2
11 1
10 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 U.S. Latino Non-Latino
A: Share of wage and salary income earned by Latinos between B. Real annualized wage and salary income growth between
2010 and 2021. 2011 and 2021 by Latino origin.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
Figure 13A reveals that the share of households in the United States identifying as Latino has risen from 11.6% in 2010 to
14.4% in 2021. Figure 13B illustrates the faster growth of Latino households. Over the past decade, annual Latino household
growth generally varied from 2% and 3%, never dropping below 1%. However, in the last two years, this growth has
accelerated to nearly 5% per year. This is a stark contrast to the growth rate of non-Latino households, which remained at
or below 1% over most of the decade, slightly increasing to 1.5% in the recent two years.
Household formation is an important consideration in ASU’s estimates of the Latino share of residential fixed investment,
which is itself a component of GDP. The decision to put housing (both single and multifamily) in place is made based on the
current and expected trajectory of the demand for housing. The Latino community is fueling this demand, which, in turn, is
incorporated into ASU’s estimates of the Latino share of residential fixed investment (Figure 12).
3
13
2
12
1
11 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
A: Percentage share of households identifying as Latino. B. Percentage annual growth in number of households by
Latino origin.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau.
A. Percentage of the population who owns a home, B. Annual growth rate in homeownership.
by Latino origin.
Figure 15 emphasizes that Latino income growth extends beyond low- and middle-income wage earners. A review of
high-income earners (those in the 95th percentile and above) shows the average annual growth rate among Latino high
earners to be approximately 10 times greater than that of non-Latinos.
0
U.S. Latino Non-Latino
METHODOLOGY
In 2023, ASU researchers refined this methodology for the Latino GDP report. They identified several ways the Latino
community impacts the U.S. economy, including one method that captures GDP-linked expenditures made by or on behalf
of Latinos. This approach is rooted in Dr. Schink’s methodology but relies on ASU’s unique methods and assumptions. ASU
also found that Latino contributions to U.S. GDP can be identified at both the national and state level using a production or
income-based approach. This approach, in turn, can be linked to literature discussing the relationship between income and
education levels, which is an important contribution of ASU to LDC’s effort in understanding the Latino community’s impact
on the U.S. economy.
The 2023 U.S. Latino GDP Report includes three measures that comprehensively assess how Latinos benefit the U.S.
economy. The first measures GDP purchases made “by and on behalf of” Latinos. We refer to this metric throughout the
report as Latino GDP, and we rely on it for all international comparisons. The second evaluates GDP produced by Latinos,
which is measured through the incomes earned by Latinos residing in the U.S. and is referred to as Gross Domestic Income
(GDI). The third, Latino Purchasing Power (LPP), measures the total expenditures of Latinos, extending beyond GDP, which
will be especially useful to businesses seeking to expand their marketing and distribution efforts. This estimate is broader
than GDP by design.
Latinos as Purchasers: GDP purchases include consumer and investment goods, as well as public goods produced by
individuals and businesses. The Latino share of these purchases is estimated from the share of GDP purchases made “by
and on behalf of” the Latino community using Dr. Schink’s approach of bucketizing GDP purchases into seven expenditure
categories. Latino allocations are then estimated as follows:
• Consumption: The share of total Latino household expenditures, as reported in the Consumer Expenditure Survey, is
used as a proxy for overall Latino GDP purchases and assigned to the aggregate GDP consumption figure. The 2021
figure is 12.8%.
• Investment (three subcategories): ASU divides gross private domestic investment into residential, nonresidential, and
inventory adjustments. Estimates of Latino investment activity are informed by their growing roles as consumers of
both goods and housing services. In light of the high rental expenditures by Latino households, ASU assigns residential
housing activity to Latinos on a per capita basis. The 2021 figure is 18.8%. Nonresidential investment is allocated at the
same rate as aggregate consumption, assuming that new investments are intended to cater to the growing Latino
market. While members of this community are not assumed to be directly responsible for these investments, ASU
assumes that these investments are the result of the current and anticipated size of the Latino market.
• Exports: U.S. exports, purchased by international consumers, are attributed to Latinos based on their overall estimated
production share, which we also refer to as the Gross Domestic Income share of Latinos. The 2021 figure is 10.7%.
• Government Purchases: Government purchases are made on behalf of all U.S. residents. ASU estimates the Latino
share of government purchases using the overall estimated population share of Latinos, following Dr. Schink’s original
approach. The 2021 figure is 18.8%.
ASU’s allocations, although inspired by the methodology used in previous reports, involve unique assumptions and produce
different empirical estimates.
Latinos as Producers: We assess Latino contributions using income data. This approach is based on the assumption that
individuals’ income reflects the value they add to production. We categorize Gross Domestic Income (GDI) into five buckets,
then allocate the Latino share according to data from the American Community Survey.
• Compensation: The proportion of wage and salary income, along with income from self-employment, serves as a gauge
for total Latino compensation. The figure for 2021 stands at 13.3%.
• Dividends, Interest, and Rent: This category is allocated based on the reported income from interest, dividends, and net
rental income over the past year. The 2021 figure is 4.7%.
• Proprietors’ Income: This refers to the surplus revenue beyond production costs of businesses owned and operated by
individuals, and is formally part of Gross Operating Surplus. The Latino share of this income category is determined by
the percentage of self-employment income earned by Latinos. In 2021, this figure was 13.6%.
• Gross Operating Surplus (excluding proprietors’ income): This allocation is based on the percentage of income derived
from interests, dividends, and net rental income.
• Net Taxes on Production and Income (TOPI): ASU allocates TOPI on a per capita basis, following the same convention
used to assign government purchases in the “Latinos as Purchasers” approach. The figure for 2021 is 18.8%.
Latino Purchasing Power (LPP): This captures the Latino community’s wider economic impact beyond GDP contributions.
Many U.S. businesses are engaged in the marketing, distribution, and transportation of imported goods to U.S. consumers,
as well. LPP excludes exports and imports from the “Latinos as Purchasers” measure. While not a GDP equivalent, this
measure of overall Latino purchasing power is highly relevant to many U.S. businesses.
APPENDIX
Latino GDI Latino Real Additions Latino Share of Real GDI Real Latino GDI
State (billions of Percentage to Latino GDI Real GDI Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth
2021 dollars) of GDI (2011-2021) (2011-2021) (2011-2021) (2011-2021)
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, American Community Survey; and U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
www.wellsfargo.com/impact
seidmaninstitute.com / wpcarey.asu.edu