Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Western Ringtail Possum Pseudocheirus occidentalis

Key Findings
Western Ringtail Possums are dependent on high quality forage from
myrtaceous tree species. Historic and ongoing declines are due to habitat
loss and fragmentation, changed fire regimes, and predation by cats, foxes
and dogs in some areas. Declines are likely to continue as climatic
conditions become drier and warmer, affecting food supply, fire regimes
and possum behaviour. Conservation actions have included control of
introduced predators, reducing impacts from timber harvesting,
prescribed controlled burning and awareness-raising events to minimise the
impact of human activities on Western Ringtail Possums where the species co-
exists near people. Photo: Adrian Wayne

Significant trajectory change from 2005-15 to 2015-18?

Yes, decline ongoing but at a slower rate.

Priority future actions

• Effetcively manage threats from fire, feral predators and weeds at selected important sites.
• Restore connectivity and habitat in selected important areas.
• Implement forest practices to minimise declines in foresty areas.

Full assessment information

Background information 2018 population trajectory assessment
1. Conservation status and taxonomy 8. Expert elicitation for population trends
2. Conservation history and prospects 9. Immediate priorities from 2019
3. Past and current trends 10. Contributors
4. Key threats 11. Legislative documents
5. Past and current management 12. References
6. Support from the Australian Government 13. Citation
7. Measuring progress towards
conservation

The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against the year three targets outlined in the Australian
Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, including estimating the change in population trajectory of 20 mammal species.
It has been prepared by experts from the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub,
with input from a number of taxon experts, a range of stakeholders and staff from the Office of the Threatened Species
Commissioner, for the information of the Australian Government and is non-statutory. It has been informed by statutory
planning documents that guide recovery of the species, such as Recovery Plans and/or Conservation Advices (see Section
11). The descriptive information in the scorecard is drawn from the summaries of (Woinarski et al. 2014; Burbidge and
Woinarski 2017; DPaW 2017; TSSC 2018) and references therein.
The background information aims to provide context for estimation of progress in research and management (Section 7)
and estimation of population size and trajectories (Section 8).

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1. Conservation status and taxonomy

Taxonomy:
Conservation
2018 No subspecies are recognised. Pseudocheirus occidentalis
status
has been synonymised with the Common Ringtail Possum
P. peregrinus of eastern Australia by some authors, or
EPBC Critically Endangered
proposed as a subspecies of P. peregrinus. However, its
distinctiveness is widely accepted, despite no published
WA Critically Endangered analysis of comparative morphology or molecular
profiles.

2. Conservation history and prospects

The Western Ringtail Possum is endemic to the southwest of Western Australia. It is arboreal, and the
smallest (c. 1.3 kg) marsupial herbivore, preferring myrtaceous species such as coastal peppermint
Agonis flexuosa. The possum is sensitive to variation in the nutritional quality of its food source, with
adult condition and successful recruitment tied to the availability of higher quality forage. It rests in
self-made dreys or tree hollows, but also in hollow logs, shrubs and grass trees near or on the ground,
if introduced predators are controlled and fires are infrequent.

Sub-fossil evidence indicates a pre-historic distribution across south-west WA from just south of
Geraldton to the southern edge of the Nullarbor Plan. At the time of European settlement, the Western
Ringtail Possum occurred from north of Perth to east of Albany. The possum had disappeared from at
least 80% of the pre-European range by 1980. After 1980, the distribution and population size of the
Western Ringtail Possum continues to decline; the possum mostly persists now in three zones: the Swan
Coastal Plain zone, Southern Forest zone and the South Coast zone. Some populations exist outside
these areas, but they are relatively much smaller.

The 2018 Conservation Advice presents evidence (from Barbara Jones) of a history of declines from the
1990s, from a total population of at least 40,000 possums (in the 1990s), to 18,000 possums in 2006,
and then to 3400 possums in 2015, indicating a 80% decline in the ten years to 2015. Of note, the Upper
Warren area (in the Southern Forest zone) which harboured the largest sub-population of Western
Ringtail Possums in the 1990s (at least 32,000), experienced a decline of over 95% between 1998 and
2009. (However, note that more recent unpublished work by DBCA suggests the Western Ringtail
Possum population may be larger than the figures quoted by B. Jones; whether this affects the
estimates for population decline is unclear; DBCA, pers. comm).

The Western Ringtail Possum population is fragmented, still declining, and the declines are expected to
continue, as the climate continues to dry and warm, the other threats of clearing habitat for
development, introduced predators and fire are still present, and the longer-term effects of
fragmentation on population viability play out. For example, a population viability analysis for a small
portion of the sub-population on the Swan Coastal Plain found that the probability of local extinction
in the next 20 years was 92%.

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Western Ringtail Possums (mostly displaced or rehabilitated individuals) have been reintroduced to
many sites, with only some of these release sites approved by the Department of Parks and Wildlife.
Translocated populations have persisted at only a handful of these release sites, including Perup
Sanctuary and Yalgorup NP.

3. Past and current trends

Estimates of the population size of Western Ringtail Possums are hampered by the difficulties of
censusing the species. A range of different survey techniques are used (e.g. spotlighting, drey searches,
scat counts, distance sampling), which further compounds the difficulties of combining information
across sites, and sometimes also through time (if methods change). Nevertheless, long-term
monitoring data and expert opinion suggest that the post-1980 declines have been very severe: The
nomination information that forms the basis for the 2018 Conservation Advice presents a case for a
decline from at least 40,000 possums in the 1990s, to 18,000 possums in 2006, and then to 3400
possums in 2015 (making an 80% decline between 2006 and 2015) (B. Jones, in the species nomination
form). Recent unpublished work by DBCA suggests the Western Ringtail Possum population may be
larger than the figures quoted by B. Jones in the species nomination form, but it is unclear whether this
would have a material impact on the estimate for rate of decline (if all population estimates are shifted
up, the rate of decline could remain similar). The 2012 Mammal Action Plan suggested a total
population size of less than 8000.

Of note, the Upper Warren area (in the Southern Forest zone) which harboured the largest sub-
population of Western Ringtail Possums in the 1990s (of at least 32,000 possums), experienced a
decline of over 95% between 1998 and 2009. Western Ringtail Possums on the Swan Coastal Plain have
also experienced a range contraction since the 1990s, mainly due to habitat fragmentation and climate
change impacts on their habitat, with monitored populations showing declines of 20-80%. The
population trend of the South Coast western ringtails is less clear. Since the steepest decline in the
Upper Warren occurred prior to 2009, it is likely that the overall decline in the past three years (2015-
18) is less severe. However, given the ongoing nature of most threats to the Western Ringtail Possum,
an ongoing decline is expected.

The 2017 Recovery Plan gives a population of in an Area of Occupancy of less than 800 km2, and note
it is likely an overestimate because of recent declines. The 2012 Mammal Action Plan and the 2018
Conservation Advice estimated an area of occupancy of less than 500 km2. These figures are rubbery,
partly because of the rapidity of the population decline.

Monitoring (existing programs):

• Targeted regional surveys conducted at Southern Forest zone
• Numerous small-scale surveys conducted at development sites on the Swan Coastal Plain zone
• Community spotlighting surveys conducted in Busselton, Bunbury and Albany
• Opportunistic sightings reported for the species’ entire distribution but particularly near
urban/suburban areas
• Long-term spotlighting (responses to timber harvesting and regional trends (DBCA, 1994-
ongoing in Kingstone, Upper Warren Region)

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• Spotlighting (as part of Western Shield Monitoring (DBCA, 2000-ongoing in Boyicup, Moopinup,
and Warrup Upper Warren)
• Spotlighting (translocation monitoring) (DBCA, 2000-current in Perup Sanctuary, Upper
Warren)
• Spotlighting (responses to burning and harvesting for translocation) (DBCA, 2016-current in
Alco Corbal, Upper Warren)
• Long term spotlighting (DBCA, 1988-ongoing in core habitat in Tuart Forest NP, DBCA)
• Spotlight (response to pine harvesting and regeneration back to native forests (DBCA, 2001-
current, Tuart Forest NP)
Population trends:
Tables 1 and 2 summarise the overall trend and status of the Western Ringtail Possum. The information
in these tables is derived from the 2012 Mammal Action Plan, the 2018 Conservation Advice, and the
2017 Recovery Plan, with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information.

Table 1. Summary of the available information on Western Ringtail Possum distribution and
population size, and (where possible) trend estimates between 2015 and 2018 for each parameter.

Population Confidence in
Published baseline 2015 Estimate 2018 Estimate
parameters estimates

WILD*
Extent of Occurrence 40 400 km2 40,000 n/a Low
Area of Occupancy <500 km2 <500 <500 Low
(Burbidge and
Mammal Action Woinarski 2017;
Dates of records and Plan. IUCN guidelines TSSC 2018).
(TSSC 2018)
methods used used for records DBCA note that AoO
from 1993 – 2012 increases with recent
survey effort
No. mature individuals <8000 3400 <3400 Low
5 5
No. of subpopulations 3 (3 management (3 management High
zones in the RP) zones in the RP)
No. of locations 1 1 1 High
Medium (as per
Generation time 3 n/a n/a
MAP)
*Including translocations.

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Table 2. Estimated recent (2005-2015) and current (2015-2018) population trends for the Western
Ringtail Possum. These figures are based on estimates for the period 2003-2015 provided by B.
Jones in the species nomination form of the 2018 Conservation Advice. Recent, unpublished work
by DBCA suggests higher figures, but these are not yet available (DBCA, pers. comm.).
Est. % of
Confidence Confidence Est. % of
total 2005- 2015-
Sub- in in total
pop’n 2015 2005-2015
2018 2015-2018
Details
population pop’n
(pre- trend trend
trend trend (2018)
2015)

Swan Coastal Recovery Plan notes that

Plain monitored populations have
(comprising 73% showed declines of 20-80% since
Southern the 1990s.
Swan, and 73% Medium- Medium- (assume
B. Jones (in 2018 Conservation
Cape to Cape, (2500) Low Low same %
Advice) estimates a 60-65%
of B. Jones in as for decline in part of this zone
the 2018 2015) between 2003-2015, with a
Conservation population of 6800 in 2003, 5800
Advice) in 2006 and 2500 in 2015

12%
The only zone with long-term
Southern (400)
quantitative data. Most of this
Forest zone (this decline occurred by 2002, or
(comprising 12% 2008 at the latest. I.e. BEFORE
zone
Upper Warren 2005 (A. Wayne, in 2018
had
and Forest (assume Conservation Advice).
about High Medium
rivers of B. same %
80% of B. Jones (in 2018 Conservation
Jones in the as for Advice) estimates that less than
the
2018 2015) 1% of the 2000-02 population
overall
Conservation persisted by 2012-15, with a
pop’n in
Advice) population of 32,600 in 2003,
the
11,500 in 2006 and 300 in 2015.
1990s)

15% Recovery Plan states no strong

evidence for decline in this zone.
South Coast 15% (assume
High Medium B. Jones (in 2018 Conservation
MZ (500) same %
Advice) estimates a population
as for around Albany of 700 in 2003,
2015) 650 in 2006 and 200 in 2015.

Whole 100% B. Jones estimates a 90% decline

High High 100%
population (3400) between 2003-15

KEY:
Improving Stable Deteriorating Unknown Confidence Description

?
High Trend documented
Medium Trend considered likely based on documentation
Low Trend suspected but evidence indirect or equivocal

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4. Key threats
The threats listed here are derived from the latest Conservation Advice (TSSC 2018) and Recovery Plan
(DPaW 2017). The Western Ringtail Possum is affected by a large number of interacting threats, of
which the severity varies among populations. These key threats include:

Climate change
Western Ringtail Possums are among the species most likely to be impacted by recent and predicted
climate change in the south-west. Adult survival and juvenile recruitment are reduced when food
quality declines. A drying and warming climate affects the nutritional quality of their food because less
new growth is produced, and the older leaves contain more accumulated toxins, have less water and
often less nitrogen than the younger leaves. Increasing CO2 levels in the air also contribute to reduced
nitrogen content, and increased fibre and toxin content in foliage. Over the past 30 years, the average
annual rainfall had decreased by 20% and western ringtails are contracting to the most mesic remnants
of their former range. The declining rainfall is contributing (along with increased residential and
agricultural demands) to lower groundwater levels and recharge rates, which accentuates impacts on
foliage nutritional quality.

The warming climate may be exacerbating outbreaks of insects that affect foliage availability and
quality. For example, warm winters can lead to outbreaks of gumleaf skeletoniser (Uraba lugens), a
moth that can substantially reduce tree leaf area across extensive areas for months or years.

As well as affecting the nutritional quality of foliage, increasing temperatures also affect western
ringtails directly, as they easily overheat. Hot weather also tends to cause them to move towards the
ground, which exposes them to increased predation risk

Climate change may also lead to changing fire regimes (specifically an increase in the frequency and/or
intensity of fires) which are likely to accentuate declines in Western Ringtail Possums.

Climate change is expected to be more marked in the Southern Forest zone than the other two zones.

Habitat loss and fragmentation from urban development

Habitat loss and fragmentation has been a major contributor to past Western Ringtail Possum declines;
land clearing for agriculture targeted more fertile, productive and mesic land which contained much of
the higher quality habitat. Habitat loss and fragmentation as a result of urban development continues
to threaten western ringtails (although Western Ringtail Possums do persist in some urban areas by
utilising garden trees and other vegetation). Possums depend on midstorey and overstorey vegetation
for food, shelter and protection from predators. The possums have poor dispersal capabilities between
habitat patches, which means the long-term viability of populations is compromised in small habitat
patches with poor connectivity to other habitat.

This threat particularly affects coastal and near-coastal populations of Western Ringtail Possums in the
Swan Coastal Plain and the Southern Coast zones.

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Habitat loss and fragmentation from timber harvesting

In forest habitat Western Ringtail Possums are more abundant in unlogged forests or where logging has
been least intense. Logging causes direct and immediate mortality, and also increases predation rates
on the Western Ringtail Possum (because of the loss of canopy connectivity, plus the migration of
predators into the disturbed site).

Timber harvesting impacts are more relevant to possums in the Southern Forest zone than in the other
two zones.

Predation by introduced predators

Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cats (Felis catus) are major predators of the Western Ringtail
Possum, and this is exacerbated when the ground and mid-story is opened up by fire, and when hot
weather or fragmentation forces possums closer to the ground. Fragmentation can also lead to
increased densities of introduced predators in some situations. Close to urbanised areas, domestic dogs
are an additional source of mortality from introduced predators.

Predation is believed to be a greater threat to possums in the Southern Forest zone than in the other
two zones.

Fire
Possum abundance is higher in areas where fire intensity has been low or in areas that have not burnt
for long periods. Fire can directly kill possums as they shelter in dreys and hollows; fire also reduces the
density of vegetation, exposing the possums to increased predation, including by introduced predators.
Finally, fire can reduce the availability and/or quality of food resources.

Since the 2016 Waroona/Yarloop fires, new prescribed burning regimes have been implemented on all
government managed lands in southwest WA, including local government areas containing Western
Ringtail Possum populations (e.g. in the Mandurah region). These regimes generally involve six-year
rotational burning of 45% of southwest reserves, undertaken in autumn-spring, which is when the
possums are breeding. This broadscale, high frequency, seasonal burning in remnant vegetation and
reserves impacts on Western Ringtail Possums by affecting food availability and quality, causing direct
mortality, amplifying predation risk, and degrading habitat by disadvantaging plant species requiring
longer than 6 years to reach maturity.

Fire is believed to be a greater threat to possums in the Southern Forest zone than in the other two
zones.

Mortality from vehicle-strike on roads

Road-strikes are common for Western Ringtail Possums, and in urbanised areas this can be a serious
cause of mortality.

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Competition for tree hollows

Western Ringtail Possum survivorship has been shown to be negatively associated with high numbers
of the sympatric Common Brush-tail Possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). Brushtails are larger, more mobile,
more aggressive and have been frequently observed evicting western ringtails from hollows. Other
species, such as the European Honeybee (Apis mellifera), Rainbow Lorikeets (Trichoglossus
haematodus) and Little Corellas (Cacatua sanguinea) may also compete with Western Ringtail Possums
for hollows. The severity of this threat varies across populations, and possibly also varies through time.
Increases in brushtail possum density can occur in areas where foxes are poison-baited. Competition
for hollows is more severe in logged forests, where tree hollows are scarcer.

Tree decline as a result of disease

Western Ringtail Possums are obligate folivores, and therefore are susceptible to tree decline, which
reduces the quality of habitat and food resources. Phytophthora cinnamomi, Neofusicoccom australe
and Armillaria luteobubalina are all pathogens that cause dieback in Western Australian tree species.
Myrtle Rust (Puccina psidii s.l.) is part of a group of fungi that infects species in the Myrtaceae. It has
not yet reached WA, but if introduced it is likely to have negative impacts on the habitat trees of
Western Ringtail Possums.

Disease
Western Ringtail Possums can be at greater risk of disease due to human disturbance and exposure to
exotic species and pathogens. Cat predation may also expose Western Ringtail Possums to
toxoplasmosis infection, although investigations into the disease load of captive and wild populations
has revealed only low rates of contagion.

The impacts of the major threats are summarised in Table 3.

Table 3. The major threats facing the Western Ringtail Possum and their associated impact scores.
CURRENT THREAT IMPACT
Threat Timing Extent Severity

1. Climate change (drought and reduced rainfall) Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 50-100%

2. Residential and commercial development

Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range 30-50%
(Habitat loss and fragmentation)

3. Agro-forestry (Habitat loss and fragmentation) Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range 20-29%

4. Red fox Vulpes vulpes Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 20-29%

5. Cats Felis catus Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 20-29%

6. Increase in fire frequency/intensity Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 20-29%

Timing: continuing/ongoing; near future: any occurrence probable within one generation (includes former threat no longer causing impact
but could readily recur); distant future: any occurrence likely to be further than one generation into the future (includes former threat no
longer causing impact and unlikely to recur).
Extent: <1% of range; 1-50%; 50-90%; >90%.
Severity: (within three generations or 10 years, whichever is longer) Causing no decline; Negligible declines (<1%); Not negligible but
<20%; 20-29%; 30-49%; 50-100%; Causing/could cause order of magnitude fluctuations.

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5. Past and current management

Recent and current management actions thought to support the conservation of the Western Ringtail
Possum are summarised in Table 4. The information is a collation of material provided by contributors.
A Recovery Plan (2017) and Conservation Advice (2018) are in place, guiding recovery action (see
Section 11).
Table 4. Management actions that support the conservation of the Western Ringtail Possum.
Est. % Contributors and
Action Location Timing
pop’n partners

Public land
(reserves and
Fox and cat control by broad-scale poison-baiting DBCA; State
forestry), Swan 1996-2018 20-30%
(as part of Western Shield)? Forestry
Coastal/Southern
Forest/South coast

DBCA, Australian
Eradicat bait trials in southern jarrah forest Warren Region 2015-2018
Govt,

Statutory and local government planning Local, State,

approvals place conditions on development; Private land 50% Australian
including relocation of possums governments

Revegetation of ex-pasture land/ habitat creation

(Majority of sites yet to achieve habitat Swan Coastal, City DBCA (various
2006-
characteristics suitable for WRP occupancy. of Busselton, <1% development
current
Monitoring over the next decade will be required Capel Shire offsets)
to assess effectiveness)

Nature
Conservation
Margaret River
Managing Bushland for Wildlife Program 2017-2018 Margaret River
region
Region (OTSC).
DBCA

Guidelines developed to reduce impacts of

Public land
prescribed burning on possum habitat (e.g. by DBCA; State
(reserves and Since 2016 32%
using marginal mowing and controlling flammable Forestry
forestry)
weeds instead of burning)

Modified logging practices under the Forest

Management Plan 2014-2023 for timber
State Forest and DBCA; State
harvesting in possum habitat. E.g. increasing area Since 2014 11%
Timber reserves Forestry
of mature forest in the fauna habitat zone
network; mapping areas of possum habitat

Monitoring core areas of the Albany urban matrix, OHCG, UWA, City
reduction of educational material to raise of Albany,
Albany
awareness in broader community; engage with community groups,
volunteer and community groups DBCA

Greater understanding of WRP occurrence and

Bronte Van Helden
habitat use within Albany urban matrix (Hons Albany 2015-2018
(UWA), DBCA
Thesis) and now PhD project

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Creation of environmental planning tool to

WALGA, DBCA,
improve data available for local government land Albany, WA LGAs 2013-2016
DPHL, CoA
use planning decisions

City of Mandurah,
Swan Coast, City Main Roads Dept.,
Rope bridge trials (varying success – limited use to 2014,
of Busselton, City SW Catchment
active use) 2018
of Bunbury, Council, Water
Corporation, DBCA

Management and engagement with wildlife

rehabilitators and support organisations (Multiple
organisations are undertaking media and events Swan
to raise the awareness of the WRP. The WRP Coastal/Southern
Ongoing DBCA
recovery team are working towards a Forest/South
collaborative and coordinated approach to share Coast
awareness raising activities, information and
products.)

NESP Citizen Science Project. Online surveys to

encourage south west residents to share their
Rochelle Steven
backyard knowledge on the WRP (learn more Albany, Bunbury 2018
(NESP TSR Hub)
about WRP, community attitudes, and how best to
protect them).

6. Actions undertaken or supported by the Australian Government

resulting from inclusion in the Threatened Species Strategy
The Australian Government has supported the following three projects may benefit the Western
Ringtail Possum:

i. The “Applying best practice feral cat and fox baiting in WA” partnership project ($1.7 million
support from the Australian Government). This project may have had minor benefits for the
possum, but it was mostly implemented outside of the possum distribution.
ii. A 20 Million Trees Round 3 Project “Biodiversity Urban Corridors” provided $96,500 to the City
of Albany to revegetate and complement ongoing conservation efforts for Lake Seppings.
iii. The Numbat Protection Dog project to develop the use of cat detector dogs to protect the last
remaining wild populations of Numbat may also provide indirect benefits to the Western
Ringtail Possum, in the longer term.
iv. The National Landcare program provided $150,000 to the Foundation for Australia’s Most
Endangered Species Limited in 2016-17.

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7. Measuring progress towards conservation

Table 5. Progress towards management understanding and management implementation for each of
the major threats affecting the Western Ringtail Possum in 2015 and 2018, using the progress
framework developed by Garnett et al. 2018.

PROGRESS IN MANAGING THREATS

Threat Year Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat being managed
2.Research has provided strong direction on how
1. Climate change 2015 0.No management
to manage threat
(drought and
2.Research has provided strong direction on how
reduced rainfall) 2018 0.No management
to manage threat
2. Residential and 3. Solutions being trialled but work only initiated
2015 1.Management limited to trials
commercial recently
development 2.Work has been initiated to roll out solutions
3. Solutions being trialled but work only initiated
(Habitat loss and 2018 where threat applies across the taxon’s range
recently
fragmentation)
3. Solutions being trialled but work only initiated 2.Work has been initiated to roll out solutions
3. Agro-forestry 2015 where threat applies across the taxon’s range
recently
(Habitat loss and
3. Solutions being trialled but work only initiated 2.Work has been initiated to roll out solutions
fragmentation) 2018
recently where threat applies across the taxon’s range

5. Trial management is providing clear evidence 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only
2015
4. Red fox Vulpes that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention
vulpes 5. Trial management is providing clear evidence 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but only
2018
that it can deliver objectives with continued conservation intervention
3. Solutions being trialled but work only initiated 2.Work has been initiated to roll out solutions
2015
recently where threat applies across the taxon’s range
5. Cats Felis catus
3. Solutions being trialled but work only initiated 2.Work has been initiated to roll out solutions
2018
recently where threat applies across the taxon’s range
2. Research has provided strong direction on how 3. Solutions have been adopted but too early to
2015
6. Increase in fire to manage threat demonstrate success
frequency/intensity 2. Research has provided strong direction on how 3. Solutions have been adopted but too early to
2018
to manage threat demonstrate success
> Green shading indicates an improvement in our understanding or management of threats between years 2015 and 2018, while red
shading indicates deterioration in our understanding or management of threats.

KEY
Score Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat is being managed
0 No knowledge and no research No management
Research being undertaken or completed but limited
1 Management limited to trials
understanding on how to manage threat
Research has provided strong direction on how to manage Work has been initiated to roll out solutions where threat
2
threat applies across the taxon’s range
Solutions have been adopted but too early to demonstrate
3 Solutions being trialled but work only initiated recently
success
Trial management under way but not yet clear evidence Solutions are enabling achievement but only with
4
that it can deliver objectives continued conservation intervention
Trial management is providing clear evidence that it can Good evidence available that solutions are enabling
5
deliver objectives achievement with little or no conservation intervention
Research complete and being applied OR ongoing research
6 The threat no longer needs management
associated with adaptive management of threat

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8. Expert elicitation for population trends

An expert elicitation process was undertaken to assess population trends for the period 2005-2015
and post-2015 under the following management scenarios. Please note that differences between
Management Scenarios 2 and 3 (Fig. 1) are difficult to attribute, as it can be difficult to determine
whether actions undertaken after 2015 were influenced by the Threatened Species Strategy or were
independent of it (see Summary Report for details of methods).
Management Scenario 1 (red line): no conservation management undertaken since 2015, and no new
actions implemented.

• No control of foxes and cats

• Fire management absent, or soley focussed on hazard reduction
• No controls on groundwater depletion
• No controls on urban development
• No controls on forestry practices
• No action on climate change
Management Scenario 2 (blue line): continuation of existing conservation management (i.e. actions
undertaken before implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy or independent of the
Threatened Species Strategy).

• Broad-scale baiting of foxes and cats

• Fire management focussed on hazard reduction, but with some modification in WRP habitat
• Limited control on groundwater depletion
• Regulated control on urban development
• Regulated control on foresty practices
• No action on climate change
Management Scenario 3 (green line): continuation of existing management, augmented by support
mobilised by the Australian Government under the Threatened Species Strategy.

• Broad-scale baiting of foxes and cats

• Fire management focussed on hazard reduction, but with some modification in WRP habitat
• Limited control on groundwater depletion
• Regulated control on urban development
• Regulated control on foresty practices
• No action on climate change

Overall estimated population trajectories subject to management scenarios considered

The Western Ringtail Possum is currently being managed under Scenario 3 (green line). Note that the
contributions associated with the TSS are small, and consequently unlikely to influence this species
much in terms of improving it’s population trajectory (and thus the blue line is obscured).

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Figure 1. Estimated relative percentage change in population under each of the management
scenarios described above. Data derived from 6 expert assessments of Western Ringtail Possum
expected response to management, using four-step elicitation and the IDEA protocol (Hemming et al.
2017), where experts are asked to provide best estimates, lowest and highest plausible estimates,
and an associated level of confidence. The dashed line represents the baseline value (i.e. as at 2015,
standardised to 100). Values above this line indicate a relative increase in population size, while
values below this line indicate a relative decrease in population size. Shading indicates confidence
bounds (i.e. the lowest and highest plausible estimates).

Population size projections based on expert elicitation are extended here to 2025, 2035 and 2045 (i.e.
10, 20 and 30 years after the establishment of the Threatened Species Strategy) on the grounds that
some priority conservation management actions may take many years to achieve substantial
conservation outcomes. However, we note also that there will be greater uncertainty around
estimates of population size into the more distant future because, for example, novel threats may
affect the species, managers may develop new and more efficient conservation options, and the
impacts of climate change may be challenging to predict.

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Information current to December 2018
 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Improved trajectory (Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 target):

The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against achieving the year three targets
outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, i.e. a demonstrated improved
trajectory for at least half of the priority species (10 birds and 10 mammals). To assess this, we first
use the expert-derived trend between 2005-15 (i.e. 10 years prior to implementation of the TSS) as a
baseline for assessing whether there has been an improvement in trajectory in the time since
implementation of the TSS (i.e. 2015-18). Table 6 below summarises this information, where negative
values indicate a declining population, and positive values indicate an increasing population. We used
Wilcoxon match-paired tests to compare trajectories for these two periods; a significant result
(probability <0.05) indicates that there was a high concordance amongst experts that their trajectory
estimates for 2005-15 were different to their estimates for 2015-18.
Table 6. A comparison of the relative annual percentage population change for the periods 2005-
2015 and 2015-2018.

Post-TSS Year 3
Pre-TSS trend Significant concordance among
trend target
(2005-2015) elicitors?
(2015-2018) met?
Although this species is undergoing
Annual


continuing decline, elcitors consistently
percentage
-37.1 -4.41 considered the rate of decline was less
population
steep in the 2015-18 period than the 2005-
change
15 period

The TSS has mobilised support through 20 Million Trees and Green Army for habitat restoration
activities, but at very small scales. The TSS support for feral cat and fox control is not expected to
contribute directly to the recovery of this species.
Additional actions that could improve trajectory
The potential impact of carrying out specific additional conservation measures on the population
trajectory of the Western Ringtail Possum was also evaluated through expert elicitation. Additional
actions that could further improve the population trajectory of the Western Ringtail Possum include:

• Broad-scale and effective baiting of foxes and cats

• Fire management that focuses primarily on conservation needs of Western Ringtail Possums in
possum habitat
• Population genetics are used to guide options for translocation
• Translocation program attached to habitat management (of fire, weeds and feral animals)
• Management of groundwater depletion
• Strategic and effective control on urban development to minimise loss of connectivity, mortality
from roads, mortality from domestic cats and dogs
• Forestry managed so existing high quality possum habitat is excluded from logging, and
potential high quality possum habitat is also protected to provide future habitat
• Mitigation of climate change
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Information current to December 2018
 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

9. Immediate priorities from 2019

The Western Ringtail Possum Recovery Plan was updated and adopted in 2017, which was closely
followed by the re-establishment of the Western Ringtail Possum Recovery Team. The recovery team
includes representatives from the three management zones (Swan Coastal Plain, Southern Forest and
South Coast). Conservation actions and planning have been occurring in the Swan Coastal Plain and
Southern Forest management zones consistently for a lengthy period of time associated with key
processes such as development and silvicultural practices. Conservation actions and planning in the
South Coast Management Zone has largely been ad hoc and opportunistic until 2008, where NRM
funding and post graduate studies have placed an increased focus and effort on surveying and
assessment of the status of the south coast population. This effort is continuing to build an
understanding of the south coast population in urban environments but needs to be expanded to
provide a broader content.
Identification of these priorities in this document is for information and is non-statutory. For statutory
conservation planning documents, such as Recovery Plans or Conservation Advices, please see Section
11.
Data collection:
• Design and implement monitoring program across the existing distribution of the Western
Ringtail Possum, that focuses on measuring outcomes of conservation management
• Develop habitat management plan for the species across its range, based on
 Spatial distribution of current and future habitat, including as affected by climate change
 Population genetics study to inform metapopulation management (including with
translocations)
• Using information from the habitat management plan, carry out regional strategic assessment
to minimise impacts of urban development across the species’ distribution, and optimise
approach to development applications and approvals
Management actions:
• Manage threats from fire, feral predators, weeds, in all existing possum habitat identified as
important for the long-term viability of the species
• Restore connectivity where possible, and restore habitat in areas that will contribute to that
long term viability
• Implement forest practices to minimise declines in foresty areas (eg. to identify and exclude
high quality current and future possum habitat from logging).

10. Contributors
Sarah Legge, John Woinarski, Stephen Garnett, Hayley Geyle (NESP TSR Hub); Deon Utber, Adrian
Wayne, Sarah Comer, Kim Williams, Mark Virgo and Manda Page (WA DBCA); Andrew Burbidge; Peter
Menkhorst; Nicholas MacGregor.

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Information current to December 2018
 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

11. Legislative documents

SPRAT profile: http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-
bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=25911

Department of Parks and Wildlife (2017). Western Ringtail Possum (Pseudocheirus occidentalis)
Recovery Plan. Wildlife Management Program No. 58. Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, WA.
Available from:
http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/publications/recovery/western-ringtail-
possum-recovery-plan. In effect under the EPBC Act from 16-Aug-2017 as Pseudocheirus occidentalis
Threatened Species Scientific Committee (2018). Conservation Advice Pseudocheirus occidentalis
Western Ringtail Possum. Canberra: Department of the Environment and Energy. Available from:
http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/25911-conservation-advice-
11052018.pdf. In effect under the EPBC Act from 11-May-2018

12. References
Burbidge, A. and Woinarski, J. (2017). Pseudocheirus occidentalis. The IUCN Red List of Threatened
Species 2017: e.T18492A21963100. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2017-
3.RLTS.T18492A21963100.en. .
DPaW (2017). Western Ringtail Possum (Pseudocheirus occidentalis) Recovery Plan. Wildlife
Management Program No. 58. (Department of Parks and Wildlife: Perth, WA.)
Garnett, S.T., Butchart, S.H.M., Baker, G.B., Bayraktarov, E., Buchanan, K.L., Burbidge, A.A., Chauvenet,
A.L.M., Christidis, L., Ehmke, G., Grace, M., Hoccom, D.G., Legge, S.M., Leiper, I., Lindenmayer,
D.B., Loyn, R.H., Maron, M., McDonald, P., Menkhorst, P., Possingham, H.P., Radford, J., Reside,
A.E., Watson, D.M., Watson, J.E.M., Wintle, B., Woinarski, J.C.Z., and Geyle, H.M. (2018) Metrics
of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian Birds. Conservation
Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13220.
Hemming, V., Burgman, M.A., Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F., and Wintle B.C. (2017) A practical guide to
structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 169-
180.
TSSC (2018). Pseudocheirus occidentalis (Western Ringtail Possum) Conservation Advice. (Department
of the Environment and Energy: Canberra.)
Woinarski, J. C. Z., Burbidge, A. A., and Harrison, P. L. (2014). 'The Action Plan for Australian Mammals
2012.' (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

13. Citation
Please cite this document as:

National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Research Hub (2019) Threatened Species
Strategy Year 3 Scorecard – Western Ringtail Possum. Australian Government, Canberra.
Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/20-
mammals-by-2020/western-ringtail-possum

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Information current to December 2018