ASSIGNMENT 1 ON ”INTRODUCTION TO MATHEMATICAL MODELING”

Student’s Code Deadline

ZBOlDoS3W1 10.22.23, 11:59 pm

October 22, 2023 Ac. Year: 2023 - 2024

Lecturer(s): ”Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima”

1 Solution of Exercise 1
Let’s determine the time necessary for the number of bacteria to triple :
� Let’s first get our model :
Let k be the rate of growth. As it is proportional to the number of bacteria :
dN dN
∝ N (t) =⇒ = kN (t).
dt � dt �
1
Solving : dN = k dt,
N (t)
ln |N (t)| = kt + C,
eln |N (t)| = ekt+C ,
N (t) = ekt × eC .
We know that at t = 0h, N (t = 0) = N0 , thus we have :
N (0) = ek×0 × eC = eC =⇒ eC = N0 =⇒ C = ln N0 .
Then we obtain the model : N (t) = ekt × eln N0 ,
N (t) = ekt N0 .
3
We know that at t = 1h, N (t = 1) = N0 , thus we have :
2 � �
k×1 3 k 3 3
N (1) = e N0 = N0 =⇒ e = =⇒ k = ln .
2 2 2

� Let’s find t∗ , the population triple time :

∗ ∗
N (t∗ ) = 3N0 =⇒ ekt N0 = 3N0 =⇒ ekt = 3 =⇒ kt∗ = ln 3,
ln 3
=⇒ t∗ = ,
k
ln 3
=⇒ t∗ = � 3 � ,
ln 2
t∗ ≈ 2.71h ≈ 2h 42min 36s.

The time necessary for the number of bacteria to triple is approximately 2 h 42 min 36 s.

2 Solution of Exercise 2
Let’s consider the model :
dP
= P (bP − a), where a > 0, b > 0.
dt
Po.Box 608 Limbe, phone (+237) 233333363, http://www.aims-cameroon.org Page 1 of 4
(i) Let’s use a phase line portrait, to show that, depending on the initial condition, this
model could include a doomsday scenario and an extinction scenario :
Let’s find the equilibrium points :
dP
= P (bP − a) = f (P ).
dt
a
f (P ) = 0 =⇒ P (bP − a) = 0 =⇒ P = 0 or P = .
b
a
The 2 equilibrium points P = 0 and P = b divide the P-axis into sub-regions.
We obtain three intervals for P : (−∞, 0), (0, ab ), ( ab , ∞).
Let’s find the sign of dP
dt
and P (t) in each interval:
dP
f (P ) = = P (bP − a).
dt
- For P ∈ (−∞, 0) : P < 0 and (bP − a) < 0 =⇒ dP dt
> 0.
a dP
- For P ∈ (0, b ) : P > 0 and (bP − a) < 0 =⇒ dt < 0.
- For P ∈ ( ab , ∞) : P > 0 and (bP − a) > 0 =⇒ dP
dt
> 0.
dP
Interval Sign of dt
Variation of P(t) Arrow
P ∈ (−∞, 0) +ve increases �
P ∈ (0, ab ) -ve decreases �
P ∈ ( ab , ∞) +ve increases �

Figure 1: Phase line portrait.

Observing this graph, we can clearly see that :

- For P ∈ ( ab , ∞), lim P (t) = ∞ : we have a doomsday scenario.
t→∞
- For P ∈ (−∞, 0) and P ∈ (0, ab ), the solution approaches the equation solution 0 :
P (t) = 0 is an attraction. We have an extinction scenario as t → ∞, P (t) → 0.
(ii) Let’s solve the IVP for any a > 0 and b > 0 : The IVP is given by :
� � � �
dP 1 b 1
= P (bP − a), with P (0) = P0 =⇒ dP = dt =⇒ − dP = dt,
dt P (bP − a) a(bP − a) aP
� �
b 1
=⇒ dP − dP = t + K,
a(bP − a) aP
� �
1 b 1 1
=⇒ dP − dP = t + K,
a bP − a a P
=⇒ ln |bP − a| − ln |P | = at + aK,
� �
bP − a
=⇒ ln = at + ak.
P
We know that at t = 0, P (t = 0) = P0 , thus we have :
� � � �
bP (0) − a bP0 − a
ln = a × 0 + ak =⇒ ln = ak.
P (0) P0

Po.Box 608 Limbe, phone (+237) 233333363, http://www.aims-cameroon.org Page 2 of 4

 We obtain :
� � � �
bP − a bP0 − a bP − a bP0 − a
ln = at + ln =⇒ = eat × ,
P P0 P P0
a eat × (bP0 − a)
=⇒ b − = ,
P P0
P0 a
=⇒ = P0 b − eat (bP0 − a),
P
P0 a
=⇒ P (t) = .
P0 b − eat (bP0 − a)

(iii) When a = 0.1, b = 0.0005 and P0 = 3000, let’s determine that this model predicts a
doomsday for the population in a finite time T that we’ll find :
P0 a
As seen previously : P (t) = .
P0 b − eat (bP0 − a)
3000 × 0.1
Then, we obtain here : P (t) = .
3000 × 0.0005 − e0.1t (0.0005 × 3000 − 0.1)
300
P (t) = .
1.5 − 1.4e0.1t
This model predicting a doomsday means :
� �
300 0.1T 0.1T 1.5
lim P (t) = lim → ∞ =⇒ 1.5 − 1.4e = 0 =⇒ e = ,
1.5 − 1.4e0.1t 1.4
� � � �
1.5 ln 1.5
1.4
=⇒ 0.1T = ln =⇒ T = ,
1.4 0.1
T ≈ 0.69.

At T ≈ 0.69, this model predicts a doomsday.

(iv) When a = 0.1, b = 0.0005 and P0 = 100 , let’s determine that this model predicts
extinction for the population as t → ∞ :
100 × 0.1
Here we have : P (t) = ,
100 × 0.0005 − e0.1t (0.0005 × 100 − 0.1)
10
P (t) = .
+ 0.05e0.1t
0.05� �
10 10
Then : lim P (t) = lim 0.1t
= = 0(extinction.)
t→∞ t→∞ 0.05 + 0.05e ∞

This model predicts an extinction of the population as t → ∞.

3 Solution of Exercise 3
Let’s use jupyter Notebook (Python) to simulate (solve numerically and plot):

dP
= P (bP − a), where a = 0.1, b = 0.0005 and P0 = 100, 3000.
dt
The code we wrote is the following one :

Po.Box 608 Limbe, phone (+237) 233333363, http://www.aims-cameroon.org Page 3 of 4

 Figure 2: Python code.

We obtain this figure for our graphs :

Figure 3: Population curve(P0 = 100, 3000) against time(t).

Po.Box 608 Limbe, phone (+237) 233333363, http://www.aims-cameroon.org Page 4 of 4