sustainability

Article
An Economic Risk Analysis in Wind and Pumped Hydro
Energy Storage Integrated Power System Using
Meta-Heuristic Algorithm
Nitesh Kumar Singh 1 , Chaitali Koley 1 , Sadhan Gope 2 , Subhojit Dawn 3 and Taha Selim Ustun 4, *

1 Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, National Institute of Technology Mizoram,

Aizawl 796012, India; niteshkumarsingh11@gmail.com (N.K.S.); chaitali.ece@nitmz.ac.in (C.K.)
2 Department of Electrical Engineering, Mizoram University, Aizawl 796004, India; sadhan.nit@gmail.com
3 Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Velagapudi Ramakrishna Siddhartha Engineering
College, Vijayawada 520007, India; subhojit.dawn@gmail.com
4 Fukushima Renewable Energy Institute, AIST (FREA), Koriyama 963-0298, Japan
* Correspondence: selim.ustun@aist.go.jp

Abstract: Due to the restructuring of the power system, customers always try to obtain low-cost
power efficiently and reliably. As a result, there is a chance to violate the system security limit, or
the system may run in risk conditions. In this paper, an economic risk analysis of a power system
considering wind and pumped hydroelectric storage (WPHS) hybrid system is presented with the
help of meta-heuristic algorithms. The value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are
used as the economic risk analysis tool with two different confidence levels (i.e., 95% and 99%). The
VaR and CVaR with higher negative values represent the system in a higher-risk condition. The





 value of VaR and CVaR on the lower negative side or towards a positive value side indicates a less
risky system. The main objective of this work is to minimize the system risk as well as minimize the
Citation: Singh, N.K.; Koley, C.;
system generation cost by optimal placement of wind farm and pumped hydro storage systems in
Gope, S.; Dawn, S.; Ustun, T.S. An
the power system. Sequential quadratic programming (SQP), artificial bee colony algorithms (ABC),
Economic Risk Analysis in Wind and
Pumped Hydro Energy Storage
and moth flame optimization algorithms (MFO) are used to solve optimal power flow problems.
Integrated Power System Using The novelty of this paper is that the MFO algorithm is used for the first time in this type of power
Meta-Heuristic Algorithm. risk curtailment problem. The IEEE 30 bus system is considered to analyze the system risk with the
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542. https:// different confidence levels. The MVA flow of all transmission lines is considered here to calculate the
doi.org/10.3390/su132413542 value of VaR and CVaR. The hourly VaR and CVaR values of the hybrid system considering the WPHS
system are reported here and the numerical case studies of the hybrid WPHS system demonstrate
Academic Editor: Gaetano Zizzo the effectiveness of the proposed approach. To validate the presented approach, the results obtained
by using the MFO algorithm are compared with the SQP and ABC algorithms’ results.
Received: 8 November 2021
Accepted: 3 December 2021
Keywords: value at risk; conditional value at risk; wind energy; pumped hydroelectric storage
Published: 7 December 2021
system; moth flame optimization algorithm

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral

with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affil-
1. Introduction
iations.
Today, wind energy is considered one of the leading renewable energy sources for
electricity generation throughout the globe. This source may work with other conventional
sources or energy storage systems depending on the energy demand situation. The de-
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors.
velopment of any new technology can be significantly affected by its economic viabilities.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Hence, economic risk computation is considered an essential aspect of the solution process
This article is an open access article
to mitigate the economic risk. Risk in a wind-integrated system occurs due to its intermit-
distributed under the terms and tent nature, and it may be of economic risk related to imbalance cost, or system security risk
conditions of the Creative Commons related to the operation of a power system in terms of voltage stability, frequency stability,
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// etc. The system risk estimation is a chief phase of the power system to avoid any losses
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ that occur in the system. The calculation also provides variations in the risk profiles as the
4.0/). system approaches complexity from its simple structure.

Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132413542 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 2 of 19

In the recent past, several researchers have performed their work in the field of system
risk assessment. In ref. [1], CVaR and VaR are used as a tool to compute economic risk
based on locational marginal pricing, and MVA flows in the system comprising wind
energy and FACTS devices under several abnormalities in the system. CVaR can be used
as a risk indicator for reserve capacity allocation in formulating robust risk constraints unit
commitment in a day-ahead market [2]. Bathurst et al. [3] present the Markova probability
approach for commercial risk through imbalance cost under advance contracting in the
deregulated electricity market. A wind farm was used in this work for a substantial
reduction in risk. A machine learning model has been presented by Bathurst et al. [4]
to assess the economic risk in terms of imbalance cost for the wind integrated system.
Paper [5] presents Nash and Rubinstein’s bargaining game models to mitigate system
risk for the wind power provider through market risk exchange policy. In ref. [6], the
CVaR index is utilized to measure EV aggregator’s risks due to some uncertainties, i.e.,
forecast errors of EV fleet characteristics, hourly loads, wind power generation, random
outages of generating units, and transmission lines to fulfill the optimal bidding strategy. A
conditional value-at-risk-based risk-averse optimal bidding strategy has been formulated
in [7] in the day-ahead electricity market, considering uncertainties in renewable generation
and electricity demand for the aggregators at the demand side. Ref. [8] presents a risk
assessment approach based on risk index associated with system operation and components
contingencies to analyze the power system security and planning under high penetration
of wind power generation.
A risk assessment index for an adaptive ultra-short-term wind power prediction
model is presented in [9]. In ref. [10], CVaR is used for measuring the risk associated with
uncertainty in electricity market price forecasting and wind power forecasting in wind
farm and energy storage integrated systems. An energy and risk management method for
a microgrid comprising of a wind turbine, PV panels, Diesel generator, and various loads
is presented by Shen et al. [11] for its active participation in the electricity pool to maximize
its benefits by scheduling its controllable resources. A risk-based reserve optimization is
proposed in [12] to evaluate the reserve requirement of large-scale wind energy systems
working in co-operation with thermal power stations. The autoregressive integrated
moving average method has been presented in [13] for risk management associated with
demand forecast and battery management in PV-based microgrid. Risk measures in terms
of CVaR and its management using mixed-integer linear programming are presented for
an energy hub containing a fuel cell, wind power, and photovoltaic energy under an
energy and reserve market environment in ref [14]. CVaR is used to analyze the risk in the
stochastic decision-making model for the coordinated operation of renewable and virtual
power plants taking part in the day-ahead market under the demand response program
and in the presence of plug-in electric vehicles [15]. Optimal placement of wind generators
based on CVaR values under different contingency conditions like line outage, generator
outage, etc., are adopted for bi-level bidding strategy for a wind energy integrated system
taking part in double auction competitive market in real-time [16]. An optimal dispatch
model for the multi-source system containing wind, thermal and hydro storage in typhoon
environment based on risk analysis with CVaR considering wind speed first and then
identification of output scenario is presented in ref. [17]. CVaR is considered risk exposure
due to the uncertainties present in the stochastic model for energy and reserve scheduling
of renewable-based microgrid under an energy market environment, which is further
solved by using multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming [18].
A bi-level robust game model incorporating uncertainties in power generation and
consumption for a regionally integrated energy system containing a CCHP unit and virtual
power plant is presented in ref. [19] in which CVaR is used as an energy risk measurement
tool. CVaR is considered a risk evaluation method to avoid over-optimistic solutions in
a two-layer adaptive stochastic model for an optimal multi-energy microgrid (wind, PV,
thermal, Battery, and capacitor) under a voltage security constraint environment [20]. The
CVaR model for time-varying economic risk with time-sequential security assessment in
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 3 of 19

a probabilistic model containing uncertainty in EV distribution and renewable energy of

distribution system is presented in ref [21]. Risk due to reserve shortage while the optimal
allocation of reserve capacity for islanded microgrid operation under intermittency of
renewable and fluctuation in load is modeled using CVaR in [22]. Risks due to uncertainty
associated with solar energy, price, load, and EV’s arriving and departing times in optimal
scheduling of heating, power, and hydrogen-based micro grid incorporated with renewable
energy sources (RES)–PV and plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) are modeled using CVaR in
ref. [23]. The risk faced by the system operator in the daily scheduling of PV, wind power
variation, real-time power market, load variation, and behavior of electric vehicle drivers is
modeled using CVaR in a two-stage stochastic model for optimal scheduling of renewable-
based microgrid integrated with PEV [24]. CVaR is used as a risk measuring tool while
planning for an energy model hub containing renewable energy sources and an energy
storage system for potential loss in a different scenarios with different confidence levels and
risk preferences [25]. Contagious VaR (CoVaR) and marginal CoVaR are used to construct
the risk connection network of market participants taking part in the energy market under
high renewable penetration [26].
In the past, a few works have been done on risk computation by several researchers,
but some important points have not yet been addressed, which are discussed in this work.
• The effect of load demand on the line flow-based system risk.
• What is the scenario of economic risk variation after the integration of wind and a
pumped hydroelectric storage (WPHS) hybrid system?
• What is the effect of different algorithms for optimal power flow solutions on the
economic risk analysis?
• Comparative analysis of risk analysis parameters (VaR, CVaR) with different confi-
dence levels.
• The main contributions of this work are as follows:
• The risk assessment parameters (VaR and CVaR) are calculated with 95% and 99%
confidence levels for different scenarios based on the MVA flows.
• Minimizing economic system risk by optimal placement of a wind farm and a pumped
hydroelectric storage hybrid system.
• The MFO algorithm is used for the first time in this type of power risk curtailment prob-
lem.
To scrutinize the robustness of the proposed method over the considered objective
functions, the problem is solved in three different stages with different optimization
techniques. The first stage of the system comprises of base-load in the standard IEEE 30 bus
system. The second stage of the system includes base-load and wind energy generation. In
the third stage, the system comprises a base-load, wind power, and pumped hydroelectric
storage (WPHS) hybrid system.

2. Mathematical Formulation
This section presents the mathematical modeling of the wind power generation,
pump hydroelectric storage (PHS) system, value at risk (VaR), and conditional value at
risk (CVaR).

2.1. Wind Power Generation

Wind power generation depends on wind speed and wind turbine specifications. In
the power output characteristics of a wind turbine, Pr is the rated output power. vci , vr , vco
are cut-in speed, rated speed, and cut-out speed of wind turbine, respectively.
The generated power from a wind turbine is as follows [27]:


 0   0 ≤ v av ≤ vci
Pr ∗ vvavr −−vvci

vci ≤ v av ≤ vr

Po (w) = ci (1)
 Pr

 vr ≤ v av ≤ vco
0 vco ≤ v av

 Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 4 of 19

Here, v av is the average wind speed and Pr is the rated wind power.

2.2. Pumped Hydroelectric Storage System

The pumped hydroelectric storage (PHS) system can store or release electrical energy
depending on the customer’s requirement. It can operate either in generating mode (when
power demand is high) or in pumping mode (when power demand is low).

2.2.1. Generating Mode

This is also called the discharging mode of operation. It is used to fulfill the power
demand during peak demand hours. The mathematical equation of generated energy of a
pumped storage system is as follows:

Eg = ρghVg ïg (2)

2.2.2. Pumping Mode

This is also called the charging mode of operation. It is used to absorb energy during
off-peak hours. The energy stored during the pumping mode is calculated as

EP = (ρghVP )/ ïP (3)

Here, ρ is the density of water, g is the acceleration due to gravity, Vg and VP are the
volumetric water flow rate during generating and pumping mode, respectively. ïg , ïP are
the overall efficiencies of the pumped hydro storage system in generating and pumping
operation, respectively [27].

2.3. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)

The VaR is computed as the maximum profit over a target time horizon such that the
probability of the profit is less than or equal to (1− ∝) and CVaR is the expected value of
the worst (1− ∝) cases of profit. ∝ is the confidence level and ∝ ∈ (0, 1) [10].

Va R∝ (profit) = max{ t|P r (profit ≤ t) ≤ 1− ∝} (4)

CVa R∝ (profit) = E[profit|profit ≤ Va R∝ ] (5)

VaR and CVaR values are inversely proportional to the system risk, i.e., it gets a
minimum
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW (maximum negative) value when system risk is at maximum. Thus, it is required 5 of 1
to minimize the system risk by moving from the left tail to the right tail in the graph shown
in Figure 1 [1].

Figure1.1.Representation
Figure Representation of CVaR
of CVaR and and
VaR.VaR.

2.4. Optimization Algorithms

The Nature-inspired Artificial Bee Colony algorithm (ABC) and the Moth Flame Op
timization (MFO) algorithm are considered with conventional SQP optimization method
to solve the optimal power flow problem. The MFO method shows higher or superio
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 5 of 19

The VaR (with 95% confidence level) value represents the minimum percentage loss
with a 5% chance on a given data in the portfolio chosen. Similarly, the VaR (with 99%
confidence level) value represents the minimum percentage loss with a 1% chance on given
data in the portfolio chosen. At the same time, CVaR (with 95% confidence level) represents
the average loss percentage in the worst 5% return case for given data/values. Similarly,
CVaR (with 99% confidence level) averages loss percentage value in the worst 1% return
case in the given portfolio data.

2.4. Optimization Algorithms

The Nature-inspired Artificial Bee Colony algorithm (ABC) and the Moth Flame Opti-
mization (MFO) algorithm are considered with conventional SQP optimization methods
to solve the optimal power flow problem. The MFO method shows higher or superior
convergence capabilities than the ABC algorithm, and both ABC and MFO offer more
optimal solutions than the SQP.

2.4.1. Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

It is a population-based search approach inspired by the intelligent behavior of hon-
eybees with common control parameters, i.e., no. of employed bees, max cycle, colony
size, etc. The main aim of artificial bees is to discover the places of food sources (fitness)
with high nectar, which changes or is modified with time, and finally select the one with
the highest nectar. Food sources were chosen randomly without using experience by
scout bees.
f it p
 
Pro p = 0.9 × + 0.1 (6)
max( f it)
Here, f it p is the fitness value of the solution which is proportional to the nectar
amount. The modification in position by onlooker bees and nectar amount of new sources
are as follows:  
x,pq = x pq + ϕ pq x pq − x f q (7)

where f ∈ {1, 2, 3 . . . ne } and q ∈ {1, 2, . . . D } are randomly chosen with D no. of

parameters to be optimized. ϕ pq is a random number generated between 0 and 1 in case of
abandoned sources scout discover new force source as


x pq = xq min + rand(0, 1) × xq max − xq min (8)

where xq min , xq max . are the minimum and maximum limits of the parameters to be opti-
mized.
The pseudo code for ABC algorithm is as follows [28]:
1. Begin.
2. Initial population.
3. While: the remaining iteration is done.
4. Select the site for the local search.
5. Employ bee for the particular chosen site and to evaluate fitness.
6. Select the bees with the best fitness and assign the remaining bees to look for randomly.
7. Examine the fitness of remaining bees and update optimum.
8. End while.
9. Return the best solution.
10. End.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 6 of 19

2.4.2. Moth Flame Optimization Techniques

This is a nature-inspired algorithm based on the navigation method, a transverse
orientation at a fixed angle towards the moon of moths. Moths utilize a single or multi-
dimensional (hyper) space vector for flying. Set of moths are represented as [29]

m f 1,1 m f 1,2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . m f 1,q

 

 m f 2,1 m f 2,2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . m f 2,q 

MF = 
 .. .. ............ .. 
 (9)
 .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. 
m f p,1 m f p,2 .. . . . . . . . . . .. m f p,q

where p is the no. of moths and q is no. of variables. The matrix containing the fitness value
of moth is  
MFO1
 MFO2 
 
MFO =   .. 
 (10)
 .. 
MFOP
Like the moth, the flame matrix and its corresponding fitness values are represented
by the following matrices having the same order as moth matrices.

OF1,1 OF1,2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OF1,q

 

 OF2,1 OF2,2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OF2,q 

OF = 
 .. .. ............ .. 
 (11)
 .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. 
OFp,1 OFp,2 .. . . . . . . . . . .. OFp,q
 
MOF1

 MOF2 

MOF = 
 .. 
 (12)
 .. 
MOFP
The moths are actual search agent that move around the search space, whereas flames
are in the best position of moths that obtained so far. Therefore, each moth searches around
a flame and updates it with the best solution.

3. Objective Function
The main objective of this work is to minimize the system generation cost in the wind
and pumped hydroelectric storage (WPHS) system integrated power system. The system
generation cost consists of the fuel cost of the thermal unit and the investment cost of
WPHS. Suppose a network has ‘NB’ number of buses, ‘NG’ number of generators, ‘ND’
number of loads, and ‘NW’ number of wind turbines, then the mathematical expression of
the objective function is as follows:
NG NW
Min F = ∑i=1 Ci ( PGi ) + ∑n=1 CWPHS (13)

Here, Ci ( PGi ) is the cost-coefficient generation of the generator at bus ‘i’ and CWPHS is
the investment cost of the WPHS system. Some equality and inequality constraints must
be considered to study the optimal power flow problem. The constraints for power flow
solution are as follows:
Equality constraints
NG
∑i=1 PGi + PW − Ploss − Pdi = 0 (14)
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 7 of 19

ND
∑ j=1 Gj [|Vi |2 + | Vj 2 − 2 |Vi | Vj


Ploss = cos δi − δj ] (15)
NB
Pi − ∑k=1 |Vi Vk Yik |cos(θik − δi + δk ) = 0 (16)
NB
Qi − ∑k=1 |Vi Vk Yik |sin (θik − δi + δk ) = 0 (17)
Here PGi is the power generation at the ith bus, PW is power generated by wind
turbines, Ploss is transmission loss and Pdi is the power demand. Gj is the line conductance
between buses i and J. Vi , Vj and Vk are the voltage magnitude at bus i, j, and k. δi , δj , δk
and θik are the voltage angle at bus i, j, k, and admittance angle of line connected between
bus i and j with magnitude Yik .
Inequality constraints

Vimin ≤ Vi ≤ Vimax ∀ i = 1, 2, 3 . . . NB (18)

∅imin ≤ ∅i ≤ ∅imax ∀ i = 1, 2, 3 . . . NB (19)

min max
PGi ≤ PGi ≤ PGi ∀ i = 1, 2, 3 . . . NB (20)
Qmin
Gi ≤ QGi ≤ Qmax
Gi ∀ i = 1, 2, 3 . . . NB (21)
TLi ≤ TLimax ∀ i = 1, 2, 3 . . . NL (22)
where Vimin , Vimax , ∅imin , ∅imax , PGi
min , Pmax , Qmin and Qmax are the lower and upper bounds
Gi Gi Gi
of the voltage magnitude, phase angle, real power generated, and reactive power generated
at ith bus respectively. TLi , TLimax are the actual and maximum limit of MVA flows of the
ith line.
PHS operating constraints

PP (t) = PW pump (t) + Pgpump (t) (23)

PPmin ≤ Pp (t) ≤ PPmax (24)

k p PPmin ≤ Pp (t) ≤ k p PPmax (25)

Pgmin ≤ Pg (t) ≤ Pgmax (26)

k g Pgmin ≤ Pg (t) ≤ k g Pgmax (27)

 o
E|V | (t + 1) = E|V | (t) + {( PP (t)·ïP ) − Pg (t)·ïg (28)

E|min max
V | ≤ E|V | ( t ) ≤ E|V | (29)

k p + kg ≤ 1 (30)
Here, PP (t), PW pump (t), Pgpump (t) are the total pumping load, pumping from wind
energy, and pumping from thermal generation. PPmin , PPmax , Pgmin , Pgmax are the lower and
upper bound of pumping and generating power of the PHS system. E|V | (t), E|min V|
, E|max
V|
are
the energy of PHS in MWhr at the time ‘t’, lower and upper bound of the energy capacity of
the PHS system. k p , k g are the state variable ∈ (0, 1) for pumping and generating mode of
operation which ensures that both pumping and generating cannot operate together [30].

4. Results and Discussions

In this work, the problem formulation and its solution are categorized into three stages.
The optimal power flow problem has been solved in each stage with three optimization
techniques, i.e., ABC, MFO, and SQP. MVA flows for each hour of operation, fuel cost, and
system losses are collected, and the basis on which VaR and CVaR are calculated with 95%
and 99% confidence levels. The flow chart of the proposed approach is given in Figure 2.
 Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 8 of 19
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 19

FigureFigure
2. Flow
2. chart of theof
Flow chart proposed work.work.
the proposed

IEEE IEEE
30 bus 30test
bussystem is used
test system here here
is used to analyze the economic
to analyze risk of
the economic theofsystem,
risk and and
the system,
the test
thesystem data data
test system are taken fromfrom
are taken ref. ref.
[31].[31].
TheThe
system waswas
system analyzed
analyzed forfor
a 24-h schedul-
a 24-h scheduling
ing period
periodwithwiththe
thehelp
help of
of aa load
load scaling factor,as
scaling factor, asshown
shownininTable
Table1 1[30].
[30].AAwind
wind gener- of
generation
ation15ofMW
15 MW ratedrated capacity
capacity withwith variation
variation in wind
in wind speed speed
for 24for 24 h is[32]
h [32] is considered
considered to the
to verify
verifyimpact
the impact of wind
of wind generation
generation in economic
in economic risk risk analysis.
analysis. TheThe energy
energy generated
generated fromfrom
wind is
windcalculated
is calculated as per
as per formula
formula [27] [27]
withwith cutcut
cut in, in,out,
cut and
out, rated
and rated
speedspeed as 3 15
as 3 m/s, m/s, 15 and
m/s,
m/s, and 26 m/s,
26 m/s, respectively.
respectively. The The
cost cost for wind
for wind energyenergy generation
generation is taken
is taken as 3.75as $/MW
3.75 $/MW
[32]. The
[32]. PHS
The PHS is considered
is considered here forhere for mitigation
mitigation of imbalance
of imbalance between between
the wind the power
wind power
generation
generation and contracted
and contracted power. power. The assumption
The assumption made made
herehere is that
is that the the initial
initial capacity
capacity of is
of PHS
PHS sufficient
is sufficientforfor mitigation
mitigation of any
of any worstworst imbalance
imbalance which
which can occur
can occur duringduring 24operation.
24 h of h of
operation.To find the optimal location of the WPHS system; fuel cost and losses have been
To find theby
calculated optimal location
integrating 15 of
MW thefixed
WPHS WPHSsystem; fuel costinand
generation losses
all the haveFigure
buses. been cal-
3 shows
culated by integrating 15 MW fixed WPHS generation in all the buses. Figure 3 shows the
the optimal cost and losses of the system after the integration of 15 MW WPHS generation.
optimal
From cost and losses
Figure 3, it isofobserved
the system thatafter
thethe
fuelintegration of 15 MW
cost and losses WPHS generation.
are minimum at bus no. 4
Fromcompared
Figure 3, ittoisallobserved that the
other buses of fuel cost and Therefore,
the system. losses are minimum
the optimal at bus no. 4 com-
location of WPHS
generation is represented as bus no 4.
pared to all other buses of the system. Therefore, the optimal location of WPHS generation
is represented as bus no 4.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 9 of 19

Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 19

Table 1. Load scaling factor.

Table 1. Load scaling
Loadfactor.
Scaling Load Scaling Load Scaling
Hour Hour Hour
Hour Factor
Load Scaling Factor Hour Factor
Load Scaling Factor Hour Factor
Load Scaling Factor
1 1 1 1 9 9 1.11.1 17 17 1.05
1.05
2 2 0.95
0.95 10 10 1.125
1.125 18 18 1.01
1.01
3 3 0.935
0.935 11 11 1.15
1.15 19 19 0.99
0.99
4 4 0.90.9 12 12 1.15
1.15 20 20 1.035
1.035
5 0.875 13 1.149 21 1.02
5 0.875 13 1.149 21 1.02
6 0.865 14 1.14 22 1.065
6 7 0.865
0.925 14 15 1.14
1.125 22 23 1.065
1.04
7 8 0.925
1.05 15 16 1.125
1.075 23 24 1.041
8 1.05 16 1.075 24 1

805 10.2

804 10
Fuel Cost ($/MWh)

9.8
803

Loss (MW)
9.6
802
9.4
801
9.2
800 9

799 8.8
3 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Bus No.
Fuel cost ($/MWh) Loss(MW)

Figure 3. Optimal cost and losses with wind power generation.

Figure 3. Optimal cost and losses with wind power generation.

ToToverify
verifythe theimpact
impactofofthe theWPHS
WPHSsystem systeminineconomic
economicrisk riskanalysis,
analysis,the theproblem
problemisis
solved in three different stages. The comparative analysis
solved in three different stages. The comparative analysis of risk coefficient VaR and of risk coefficient VaRCVaRand
isCVaR
chosenis with
chosen two with two different
different confidence confidence levels,
levels, i.e., 95%i.e.,
and95%99%. and 99%.
ToTocalculate
calculatethe theVaRVaRand andCVaR CVaRvalue,value,thetheMVAMVAflow flowofofthe thesystem
systemisisused usedhere.
here.ToTo
findthe
find theminimum
minimumcost costandandlosses
lossescorresponding
correspondingto tothe
theVaR
VaRand andCVaR
CVaRvalues,values,SQP,SQP,MFO,
MFO,
andABC
and ABCalgorithms
algorithmsare areused
usedhere.here.
Stage I: In this stage, the effectofofload
Stage I: In this stage, the effect loadvariations
variations forfor
a 24-h
a 24-hscheduling
scheduling period is con-
period is
sidered as as
considered per perload
load scaling
scalingfactor,
factor,andandVaR VaRandand CVaR values are
CVaR values are calculated
calculatedfor for95%95%andand
99%confidence
99% confidencelevels.levels.The TheVaR VaRand andCVaR CVaRvalues
valuesfor for95%
95%confidence
confidencelevel levelareareobtained
obtained
usingSQP,
using SQP,MFO,MFO,and andABC ABCalgorithm
algorithmare areshown
shownininFigureFigure4.4.
FromFigure
From Figure4a, 4a,ititisisobserved
observedthat thatthetheeconomic
economicrisk riskcoefficient
coefficientVaR VaRvalues
valuesfor for95%
95%
confidencelevel
confidence levelare arelower
lowerby byusing
usingthe theMFOMFOalgorithm
algorithmcomparedcomparedwith withSQP SQPand andABC ABC
algorithms.From
algorithms. FromFigure
Figure4a, 4a,it it
was was detected
detected that
that thetheVaR VaR
valuevalue
usingusingthetheMFO MFO algorithm
algorithm is
is minimum
minimum andand the same
the same in 11th
in 11th and 12th-hour
and 12th-hour intervalinterval
and its and its value
value is −0.65782.
is −0.65782. Simi-
Similarly,
larly,
the the maximum
maximum VaR value VaR using
value using
the MFO the MFO algorithm
algorithm is −0.78396
is −0.78396 in the in 5th-hour
the 5th-hour inter-
interval.
val. From
From Figure Figure
4b, it4b,can it can be observed
be observed thatthatthetheCVaRCVaR value
value using
using thethe MFOMFOalgorithm
algorithmisis
minimumininthe
minimum the15th-hour
15th-hourinterval,
interval,and anditsitsvalue
valueis is−0.71235.
−0.71235. ItItisisalso alsoobserved
observedthat that
CVaR’s highest negative value, i.e., −1.05263, is obtained using SQP techniques, obtained
CVaR’s highest negative value, i.e., − 1.05263, is obtained using SQP techniques, obtained
ininthe
thefourth
fourthtotothe theseventh-hour
seventh-hourinterval. interval.
Figure55shows
Figure showsthe theVaR VaRand andCVaR CVaR values
values forfor
2424 h scheduling
h scheduling period
period with
with 99% 99% con-
confi-
fidence
dence level.
level. From
From Figure
Figure 5a5a it is
it is seenseen that
that VaR
VaR minimum
minimum negative
negative value
value (i.e.,
(i.e., −0.7265)isis
−0.7265)
obtainedininthe
obtained theninth-hour
ninth-hour interval
interval using
using thetheMFO MFO algorithm,
algorithm, andand VaRVaR maximum
maximum nega-
negative
value (i.e., −
tive value (i.e., −1) is obtained by using SQP techniques in almost all the intervals except
1) is obtained by using SQP techniques in almost all the intervals except the
the ninth to 15th-hour interval. From Figure 5b, it can be observed that the CVaR mini-
ninth to 15th-hour interval. From Figure 5b, it can be observed that the CVaR minimum
negative value (i.e.,
mum negative value −1.80992) is obtained
(i.e., −1.80992) in the in
is obtained 21sttheinterval using the
21st interval usingMFOthealgorithm,
MFO algo-
rithm, and the CVaR maximum negative value (i.e., −2.63158) is obtained with SQP tech-
nique in the fourth to seventh interval.
 Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 10 of 19

Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 19

and the CVaR maximum negative value (i.e., −2.63158) is obtained with SQP
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10technique
of 19 in
the fourth to seventh interval.

-0.8
-0.8 -0.87
-0.87
-0.78
-0.78 -0.89
-0.89
-0.76
-0.76
-0.91
-0.91
-0.74
-0.74
-0.93

VaR
VaR

-0.72 -0.93

VaR
VaR

-0.72
-0.7 -0.95
-0.95
-0.7
-0.68 -0.97
-0.97
-0.68
-0.66 -0.99
-0.99
-0.66
-0.64
-0.64 -1.01
-1.01
11 33 55 77 99 11
11 13 15
13 15 17
17 19
19 21
21 23
23
Hour
Hour
ABC
ABC MFO
MFO SQP
SQP

(a)
(a)
-0.82
-0.82
-0.8 -0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.78
-0.78 -0.94
-0.94
-0.76

CVaR
-0.76
CVaR

CVaR
CVaR

-0.74 -0.98
-0.98
-0.74
-0.72
-0.72 -1.02
-1.02
-0.7
-0.7
-0.68
-0.68 -1.06
-1.06
11 33 55 77 99 11 13
11 13 15
15 17
17 19
19 21
21 23
23
Hour
Hour
ABC
ABC MFO
MFO SQP
SQP
(b)
(b)
Figure 4.
Figure 4. (a) VaR
(a)
FigureVaR andVaR
4. and
(a) (b) and
(b) CVaR
CVaR for
(b)for 24 hhfor
24
CVaR scheduling
scheduling period with
period
24 h scheduling with 95%
95%
period confidence
confidence
with level. level.
level.
95% confidence

-0.84
-0.84 -0.93
-0.93
-0.94
-0.94
-0.82
-0.82
-0.95
-0.95
-0.8
-0.8 -0.96
-0.96
VaR
VaR

-0.78 -0.97
VaR
VaR

-0.78 -0.97
-0.98
-0.98
-0.76
-0.76
-0.99
-0.99
-0.74
-0.74 -1
-1
-0.72
-0.72 -1.01
-1.01
11 33 55 77 99 11 13
11 13 1515 17
17 19
19 21
21 23
23
Hour
Hour
ABC
ABC MFO
MFO SQP
SQP
(a)
(a)

Figure 5. Cont.
 Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 11 of 19
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 19

-2.1 -2.3

-2.05 -2.35
-2.4
-2
-2.45

CVaR
CVaR
-1.95
-2.5
-1.9
-2.55
-1.85 -2.6
-1.8 -2.65
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
ABC MFO SQP

(b)
Figure 5.Figure
(a) VaR andVaR
5. (a) (b) and
CVaR(b)for 24 hfor
CVaR scheduling period with
24 h scheduling 99%
period confidence
with level. level.
99% confidence

Table 2Table
shows2the optimal
shows the cost of the
optimal system
cost forsystem
of the a 24-h scheduling period. From
for a 24-h scheduling Table From
period.
2, it is observed
Table 2, it that the MFOthat
is observed algorithm
the MFO gives the minimum
algorithm gives thecost compared
minimum costtocompared
the ABC to the
algorithmABC and the SQPand
algorithm technique.
the SQPFrom the table,
technique. Fromit the
is also observed
table, it is alsothat if we reduce
observed the reduce
that if we
load, then
the the system’s
load, then thecost is also reduced.
system’s cost is alsoTable 2 also displays
reduced. the displays
Table 2 also optimal losses of the losses
the optimal
system offorthe
a 24-h scheduling
system for a 24-hperiod for the SQP,
scheduling ABC,
period for and MFOABC,
the SQP, algorithms.
and MFO It is algorithms.
observed It is
that theobserved
MFO algorithm
that the gives
MFO the minimum
algorithm losses
gives of the system
the minimum compared
losses to thecompared
of the system ABC to
algorithmthe and
ABCthe SQP technique.
algorithm and the SQPIt can be concluded
technique. It canfrom the resultfrom
be concluded that if
thewe reduce
result that if we
the load, then losses
reduce of the
the load, thensystem
lossesare alsosystem
of the reduced.
are also reduced.

Table 2.Table
System optimaloptimal
2. System cost of the
costsystem for a 24-h
of the system forscheduling period. period.
a 24-h scheduling

SQP SQP ABC ABC MFO MFO

Hour Hour Cost Cost Cost
Losses (MW)
Cost Losses Losses (MW)
Cost Losses Losses (MW)
Cost Losses
($/h) ($/h) (MW) ($/h) ($/h) (MW) ($/h) ($/h) (MW)
1 802.20 11.742 798.9258 9.0946 799.1074 9.1307
1 802.20 11.742 798.9258 9.0946 799.1074 9.1307
2 750.95 11.616 748.0734 8.3746 748.0321 8.3738
2 750.95 11.616 748.0734 8.3746 748.0321 8.3738
3 3 735.77 735.7711.576 11.576732.9526732.9526
8.1361 8.1361
733.4201 733.42018.2681 8.2681
4 4 700.66 700.6611.479 11.479698.1734698.1734
7.6301 7.6301
698.1724 698.17247.6267 7.6267
5 5 675.86 675.86 11.409 673.6562
11.409 7.2665
673.6562 673.6466
7.2665 673.64667.2645 7.2645
6 6 666.01 666.01 11.357 663.9615
11.357 7.1109
663.9615 664.0429
7.1109 664.04297.1347 7.1347
7 7 725.69 725.6911.548 11.548723.4554723.4554
8.1030 8.1030
723.0055 723.00558.0075 8.0075
8 8 854.41 854.4111.875 11.875850.8142850.8142
9.8262 850.8096
9.8262 850.80969.8220 9.8220
9 9 907.59 907.5912.017 12.017903.7043903.7043
10.5782 903.8688
10.5782 10.6593 10.6593
903.8688
10 10 934.54 934.5412.091 12.091930.4833930.4833
10.9799 10.9799
930.6083 930.6083
11.0003 11.0003
11 961.73 12.168 957.5228 11.3681 957.8674 11.2761
11 961.73 12.168 957.5228 11.3681 957.8674 11.2761
12 961.73 12.168 957.5182 11.3750 957.8674 11.2761
12 13 961.73 960.6412.168 12.165957.5182956.4369
11.3750 11.3661
957.8674 958.1420
11.2761 11.6120
13 14 960.64 950.8312.165 12.137956.4369946.6842
11.3661 11.2134
958.1420 946.7261
11.6120 11.2168
14 15 950.83 934.5412.137 12.091946.6842930.4850
11.2134 10.9806
946.7261 930.7390
11.2168 11.0721
15 16 934.54 880.8812.091 11.944930.4850877.1282
10.9806 10.1999
930.7390 877.1274
11.0721 10.1947
16 17 880.88 854.4111.944 11.875877.1282850.8098
10.1999 9.8276
877.1274 850.8096
10.1947 9.8220
17 18 854.41 812.5711.875 11.768850.8098809.2118
9.8276 9.2264
850.8096 809.20479.8220 9.2223
18 19 812.57 791.8811.768 11.716809.2118788.7540
9.2264 809.2047
8.9696 788.64639.2223 8.9258
19 20 791.88 838.6511.716 11.834788.7540835.1518
8.9696 9.6281
788.6463 835.13278.9258 9.6008
21 822.97 11.794 819.5496 9.3776 819.9296 9.4728
20 838.65 11.834 835.1518 9.6281 835.1327 9.6008
22 870.26 11.916 866.5741 10.0454 866.7185 10.0845
21 822.97 11.794 819.5496 9.3776 819.9296 9.4728
23 843.89 11.847 850.8098 9.8276 840.3490 9.6775
22 24 870.26 802.20 11.916 866.5741
11.742 10.0454
798.9258 866.7185
9.0946 10.0845
799.1074 9.1307
23 843.89 11.847 850.8098 9.8276 840.3490 9.6775
24 802.20 11.742 798.9258 9.0946 799.1074 9.1307
 Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 12 of 19

Stage II: In this stage, 24-h wind power generation is used with the variations of load,
and VaR and CVaR values are calculated for two different confidence levels, i.e., 95% and
99%. Table 3 shows the 24-h wind power generation data [1]. The VaR and CVaR values
considering wind power generations are obtained using SQP, MFO, and ABC algorithm
for 95% confidence levels and shown in Figure 6.

Table 3. Wind power generation.

Wind Power Wind Power Wind Power

Hour Hour Hour
(MW) (MW) (MW)
1 12.75 9 7.5 17 12.5
2 11.875 10 12.5 18 9.375
3 9.375 11 12.75 19 8.375
4 10.25 12 6.25 20 11.5
5 11.5 13 12 21 5.25
nability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 8.875 14 10.25 22 11.875 13 of 19
7 10.75 15 12.5 23 9
8 11.75 16 8.875 24 11.75

-0.8 -0.85

-0.76 -0.89

VaR
VaR

-0.72 -0.93

-0.68 -0.97

-0.64 -1.01
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
ABC MFO SQP

(a)
-0.85 -0.9
-0.83 -0.92
-0.81 -0.94
-0.79 -0.96
CVaR
CVaR

-0.77 -0.98
-0.75 -1
-0.73
-1.02
-0.71
-1.04
-0.69
-1.06
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
ABC MFO SQP

(b)
Figure 6.Figure
(a) VaR and
6. (a) VaR(b)
andCVaR with
(b) CVaR considering
with consideringwind generation
wind generation forfor
95%95% confidence
confidence level. level.

-0.9 -0.93
-0.94
-0.86 -0.95
 -0.68 -0.97

-0.64 -1.01
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 13 of 19
Hour
ABC MFO SQP

From Figure 6a, it is observed(a) that the economic risk coefficient VaR values with
-0.85 wind generation for 95% confidence level are less by-0.9
considering using the MFO algorithm
-0.83 to the SQP and ABC algorithms. From the Figure,
compared it is observed that the
-0.92
minimum-0.81 value of VaR using the MFO algorithm is − 0.65065 (in second-hour
-0.94 interval) and
the maximum
-0.79 value of VaR using the MFO algorithm is − 0.79964 (in sixth-hour interval).
-0.96
In Figure
-0.77 6b it can be observed that the CVaR minimum value -0.98 using the MFO algorithm

CVaR
is −0.69659
-0.75 CVaR
in the second-hour interval. From that figure, it is also observed that CVaR’s
highest negative value, i.e., −1.05263, is obtained using the SQP-1technique, and this value
-0.73
is obtained in the fourth- to the seventh-hour interval of the scheduling -1.02 period.
-0.71
Figure 7 shows the VaR and CVaR values considering wind -1.04 generation for a 24-h
-0.69
scheduling period with a 99% confidence level. From Figure-1.06 7a, it can be seen that a
1
minimum negative 3 value
5 7 of VaR
9 11 (i.e.,13−0.74252)
15 17 is 19obtained
21 23 in second-hour interval using
MFO algorithm and the VaR maximum Hour negative value −1 is obtained by using SQP
techniques in almost all except ABC the ninth-
MFO to 15th-hour
SQP interval. From Figure 7b, it is
observed that a minimum negative value of CVaR (i.e., −1.85631) is obtained in the second-
hour interval using the MFO algorithm (b) and a maximum negative value of CVaR (i.e.,
− 2.63158) is obtained by the SQP technique
Figure 6. (a) VaR and (b) CVaR with considering wind generationin the fourth to seventh
for 95% confidence interval.
level.

-0.9 -0.93
-0.94
-0.86 -0.95
-0.96
-0.82

VaR
VaR

-0.97
-0.98
-0.78
-0.99
-0.74 -1
-1.01
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 19
ABC MFO SQP

(a)

-2.25
-2.35
-2.15

-2.05 -2.45
CVaR
CVaR

-1.95
-2.55
-1.85
-2.65
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324
Hour
ABC MFO SQP

(b)
Figure 7.Figure
(a) VaR
7. and (b) CVaR
(a) VaR with
and (b) considering
CVaR wind generation
with considering for 99% for
wind generation confidence level. level.
99% confidence

13 Figure 8 shows the cost and losses with considering wind generation for a 24-h
1000
scheduling period for three different techniques: SQP, ABC, and MFO algorithm. From
12 950
Figure 8, it is observed that in the sixth-hour interval, cost and losses are lower in all
11three optimization techniques. The cost and losses values obtained
900 are 667.7501 $/h
Loss (MW)

Cost ($/h)

10 850
9 800
8 750
7 700
 CV

CV
-1.95
-2.55
-1.85
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 -2.65 14 of 19
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324
Hour
ABC MFO SQP
and 6.6877 MW, respectively, using the MFO algorithm. The almost same value, i.e.,
667.7519 $/h and 6.6902 MW, is obtained using (b) the ABC algorithm. The SQP technique
gives a greater value, i.e., 668.61 $/h and 11.357 MW, than the MFO and ABC algorithms.
Figure 7. (a) VaR and (b) CVaR with considering wind generation for 99% confidence level.

13 1000
12 950
11 900
Loss (MW)

Cost ($/h)
10 850
9 800
8 750
7 700
6 650
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
SQP Cost ($/h) ABC Cost ($/h) MFO Cost ($/h)
SQP Losses (MW) ABC Losses (MW) MFO Losses (MW)

Figure 8. Cost and losses with considering wind generation for 24 h scheduling period.
Figure 8. Cost and losses with considering wind generation for 24 h scheduling period.

StageIII:
Stage 3: In
In this
this stage,
stage, VaR
VaR and
and CVaR
CVaR values
values are
are calculated
calculated for
for two
two different
different confi-
con-
REVIEW levels, (i.e., 95% and 99%), considering the WPHS system for a 24 scheduling
dence
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER fidence levels, (i.e., 95% and 99%), considering the WPHS system for a 24 h 15 ofpe-
h scheduling 19
riod. The
period. TheWPHS
WPHSsystemsystemoperation
operationfor
foraa24
24hhscheduling
schedulingperiod
periodisisshown
shownininFigure
Figure9.9.
It is assumed that PHS is only used to mitigate any imbalances between wind energy
generation and contracted power. The operation of PHS is shown in Figure 9, where the
positive
16 value of power generation represents the generating stage and 8the negative
power represents the pumping mode of the PHS operation.
The VaR and CVaR values considering the WPHS system are obtained using
14 6 the SQP,
MFO and ABC algorithms for 95% confidence levels and shown in Figure 10. From Figure 10a,

PSH Amount (MW)

Wind Power (MW)

it can12be observed that the economic risk coefficient (VaR) values with considering 4 WPHS for
95% confidence level are lower by using the MFO algorithm compared SQP and ABC algo-
10 2
rithms. From the Figure, it is observed that the VaR minimum value using the MFO algorithm
is −0.66405
8 in the seventh-hour interval and the maximum VaR value using the 0 MFO algo-
rithm is −0.80356 in the 20th-hour interval. From Figure 10a, it is observed that the CVaR min-
imum6value using the MFO algorithm is −0.75058 in the first-hour interval. From -2 the Figure,
it is also observed that the CVaR highest negative value, i.e., −0.86789, is obtained by using
SQP techniques
4 in sixth-hour intervals. -4
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
Amount of contracted wind power (MW)
Amount of actual wind power (MW)
PHS operation (MW) (+ve for Generation and -ve for Pumping)

Figure 9. WPHS system operation for 24 h scheduling period.

Figure 9. WPHS system operation for 24 h scheduling period.

It is assumed that PHS is only used toHour

mitigate any imbalances between wind energy
1
generation and contracted3 5power.
7 The 9 operation
11 13 of15PHS17is shown
19 21 23
in Figure 9, where the
-0.65 of power generation represents the generating stage and the negative
positive value -0.7 power
represents the pumping mode of the PHS operation.
The -0.69
VaR and CVaR values considering the WPHS system are obtained-0.74 using the
SQP, MFO and ABC algorithms for 95% confidence levels and shown in Figure 10. From
Figure 10a,-0.73 -0.78consid-
it can be observed that the economic risk coefficient (VaR) values with
CVaR
VaR

ering WPHS for 95% confidence level are lower by using the MFO algorithm compared
-0.77 -0.82

-0.81 -0.86

-0.85 -0.9
 PSH Amount
Wind Power
10 2

8 0

Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 6 -2 15 of 19

4 -4
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
SQP and ABC algorithms. From the Hour Figure, it is observed that the VaR minimum value
using the MFO algorithm is −0.66405 in the seventh-hour interval and the maximum VaR
Amount of contracted wind power (MW)
value using the MFO algorithm is −0.80356 in the 20th-hour interval. From Figure 10a, it
Amount of actual wind power (MW)
is observed that the CVaR minimum value using the MFO algorithm is −0.75058 in the
PHS operation (MW) (+ve for Generation and -ve for Pumping)
first-hour interval. From the Figure, it is also observed that the CVaR highest negative
value,
Figure i.e., −0.86789,
9. WPHS is obtained
system operation byhusing
for 24 SQP techniques
scheduling period. in sixth-hour intervals.

Hour
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
-0.65 -0.7

-0.69 -0.74

-0.73 -0.78

CVaR
VaR

-0.77 -0.82

-0.81 -0.86

-0.85 -0.9
SQP VaR ABC VaR MFO VaR
SQP CVaR ABC CVaR MFO CVaR

(a)
Hour
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
-0.75
-1.95
-0.79 -2.05

-0.83 -2.15

CVaR
VaR

-2.25
-0.87
-2.35
-0.91
-2.45

-0.95 -2.55
SQP VaR ABC VaR MFO VaR
SQP CVaR ABC CVaR MFO CVaR
(b)

Figure 10. VaR and CVaR with considering WPHS system with (a) 95% and (b) 99% confidence level.

The VaR and CVaR values considering the WPHS system are obtained using the SQP,
MFO and ABC algorithms for 99% confidence levels and are shown in Figure 10b. From the
figure, it can be observed that the VaR minimum value using the MFO algorithm is −0.77441
in the 11th hour interval, and the maximum VaR value using the MFO algorithm is −0.9266
in the sixth-hour interval. From Figure 10b, it is observed that the CVaR minimum value
using the MFO algorithm is −1.93602 in the 11th hour interval. From this Figure it is
also observed that the CVaR highest negative value, i.e., −2.37051, is obtained using SQP
techniques in the sixth-hour interval.
 11, it is observed that in the sixth-hour interval, cost and losses are lower in all the three
optimization techniques. The minimum cost and losses values obtained are 668.1405 $/h
and 6.5481 MW, respectively, using the MFO algorithm. Using the ABC algorithm, cost
and losses values obtained are 668.4928 $/h and 6.5720 MW, respectively. The SQP tech-
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 nique gives a greater value, i.e., 669.37 $/h and 7.303 MW, than the MFO and ABC algo-
16 of 19
rithms.
Figure 12 a,b shows the comparative convergence characterized with ABC and MFO
algorithms for the three different case studies. From Figure 12, it is observed that cost is
Figure
lower 11base
in the shows the
case cost andcompared
condition losses with
to considering WPHS
the wind power andfor a 24-h
WPHS scheduling
integrated sys-
period for three different techniques: the SQP, ABC, and MFO algorithms.
tem. To find the economic risk of the system, optimal control parameters set for From Figure 11,
the initial
itinterval
is observed
with that
threeindifferent
the sixth-hour interval,arecost
cases obtained and in
shown losses
Tableare
4. lower in all the three
optimization techniques. The minimum cost and losses values obtained are 668.1405 $/h
From Table 4, it is observed that the VaR and CVaR are lower with the integration of
and 6.5481 MW, respectively, using the MFO algorithm. Using the ABC algorithm, cost and
the WPHS system compared to the integrated system without and with wind generation.
losses values obtained are 668.4928 $/h and 6.5720 MW, respectively. The SQP technique
From the Table, it is observed that cost slightly increases with wind generation and the
gives a greater value, i.e., 669.37 $/h and 7.303 MW, than the MFO and ABC algorithms.
wind and PHS system because wind generation cost is considered here.

1000 12
950 11
900
10

Loss (MW)
Cost ($/h)

850
9
800
8
750
700 7

650 6
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour

SQP Cost ($/h) ABC Cost ($/h) MFO Cost ($/h)

SQP Losses (MW) ABC Losses (MW) MFO Losses (MW)

Figure11.
Figure 11.Cost
Costand
andlosses
losseswith
withconsidering
consideringWPHS
WPHSsystem
systemfor
for2424
hh scheduling
scheduling period.
period.

Figure 12a,b shows the comparative convergence characterized with ABC and MFO
algorithms for the three different case studies. From Figure 12, it is observed that cost
is lower in the base case condition compared to the wind power and WPHS integrated
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW
system. To find the economic risk of the system, optimal control parameters set17for
of the
19

initial interval with three different cases obtained are shown in Table 4.

(a) (b)
Figure
Figure12.
12.Comparative
Comparativeconvergence
convergenceplot
plotusing
using(a)
(a)ABC
ABCalgorithm
algorithmand
and(b)
(b)MFO
MFOalgorithm.
algorithm.

Table 4. Optimal setting of the control parameter for initial interval of the system.

Normal System With wind Power With WPHS System

Control Variable
SQP ABC MFO SQP ABC MFO SQP ABC MFO
PG1 176.61 177.869 178.060 170.81 171.772 171.758 169.7 171.055 171.188
PG2 48.87 48.5084 48.4867 47.48 46.9748 46.9637 47.23 46.8821 45.5135
PG4 (WPH) ---- ----- ---- 12.75 12.7500 12.7500 15.00 15.0000 15.00
PG5 21.52 21.3587 21.3301 21.10 20.8995 20.8900 21.02 20.8552 20.2404
PG8 22.23 20.9467 20.8686 18.99 17.1770 17.1896 18.47 16.6266 17.3108
PG11 12.27 11.8473 11.7485 11.13 10.5493 10.5584 10.95 10.0000 10.8859
PG13 11.36 12.0000 12.0000 10.18 12.0000 12.0000 9.99 12.0000 12.0000
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 17 of 19

Table 4. Optimal setting of the control parameter for initial interval of the system.

Control Normal System With wind Power With WPHS System

Variable SQP ABC MFO SQP ABC MFO SQP ABC MFO
PG1 176.61 177.869 178.060 170.81 171.772 171.758 169.7 171.055 171.188
PG2 48.87 48.5084 48.4867 47.48 46.9748 46.9637 47.23 46.8821 45.5135
PG4 (WPH) — — — 12.75 12.7500 12.7500 15.00 15.0000 15.00
PG5 21.52 21.3587 21.3301 21.10 20.8995 20.8900 21.02 20.8552 20.2404
PG8 22.23 20.9467 20.8686 18.99 17.1770 17.1896 18.47 16.6266 17.3108
PG11 12.27 11.8473 11.7485 11.13 10.5493 10.5584 10.95 10.0000 10.8859
PG13 11.36 12.0000 12.0000 10.18 12.0000 12.0000 9.99 12.0000 12.0000
V1 1.060 1.1000 1.1000 1.060 1.1000 1.1000 1.060 1.1000 1.0987
V2 1.042 1.0873 1.0843 1.041 1.0814 1.0810 1.043 1.1000 1.0740
V4 (WPHS) — — — 1.025 1.0600 1.0600 1.020 1.0600 1.0600
V5 1.015 1.0594 1.0567 1.014 1.0497 1.0473 1.015 1.0603 1.0470
V8 1.020 1.0708 1.0660 1.023 1.0573 1.0567 1.021 1.0633 1.0565
V11 1.060 1.1000 1.1000 1.060 1.0903 1.1000 1.060 1.1000 1.0833
V13 1.060 1.1000 1.1000 1.060 1.0805 1.0820 1.060 1.1000 1.0455
T11 0.9968 1.0672 1.1000 0.9223 0.9000 0.9616 0.9789 0.9848 0.9696
T12 0.9020 0.9789 1.1000 0.9835 0.9252 0.9696 0.9225 1.0878 0.9387
T15 0.9667 0.9413 0.9000 1.0254 0.9000 0.9387 0.9696 0.9391 0.9282
T36 0.9693 0.9416 0.9000 0.9493 1.1000 0.9282 0.9616 0.9392 0.9543
QC10 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000
QC12 5.0000 3.9687 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 4.9516 5.0000 4.4123 4.9516
QC15 4.9950 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000
QC17 5.0000 5.0000 0 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000
QC20 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000
QC21 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000
QC23 5.0000 4.0413 5.0000 4.3920 4.8523 4.0862 5.0000 4.0035 5.0000
QC24 5.0000 5.0000 5.0000 4.9966 5.0000 5.0000 4.0862 5.0000 4.0862
QC29 4.5339 3.9970 0 3.5404 4.1497 3.9066 0 5.0000 5.0000
Cost ($/h) 802.20 799.107 798.925 804.01 801.853 801.814 804.64 802.11 801.981
Losses (MW) 11.742 9.1307 9.0946 11.742 8.7231 8.7106 9.043 8.9189 8.7390
VaR(95%) −0.9227 −0.74261 −0.69056 −0.9227 0.73907 −0.72138 −0.8220 −0.6948 −0.7655
CVaR(95%) −0.9860 −0.75849 −0.72317 0.9860 −0.79658 −0.7803 −0.8495 −0.7505 −0.7883

From Table 4, it is observed that the VaR and CVaR are lower with the integration of
the WPHS system compared to the integrated system without and with wind generation.
From the Table, it is observed that cost slightly increases with wind generation and the
wind and PHS system because wind generation cost is considered here.

5. Conclusions
This paper presents a detailed economic risk analysis study of VaR and CVaR with
confidences levels of 95% and 99% in the WPHS integrated system. The economic risk
was calculated for three different stages based on the MVA flows of the system. Three
different optimization techniques, i.e., ABC, MFO, and SQP, were used for optimal power
flow solution in each stage. The MFO algorithm was used for the first time in this type of
problem, which is the main novelty of this work. By comparing the results obtained after
implementing algorithms like SQP, ABC, and MFO for both IEEE 30 bus test systems, it can
be inferred that MFO gives a better performance in terms of the risk coefficient value. The
risk associated based on MVA flows is lower in MFO than ABC and SQP. As the confidence
level increases, the risk values increase. VaR values saturate as we move towards a higher
confidence level, i.e., 99%, whereas CVaR values give more predictable differences towards
a higher confidence level. Finally, it can be concluded that the integration of the WPHS in a
power system using MFO is effective for minimizing the system risk. The system generation
cost is also minimized after the incorporation of the wind farm and pumped energy storage
system. The presented approach is a generalized one that can be implemented in any large,
small as well as hybrid system.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 13542 18 of 19

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, N.K.S. and S.G.; methodology, C.K., S.D. and S.G.; soft-
ware, N.K.S.; validation, C.K. and S.D.; formal analysis, T.S.U.; investigation, C.K. and S.G.; resources,
N.K.S., C.K., S.G., S.D. and T.S.U.; data curation, T.S.U.; writing—original draft preparation, N.K.S.;
writing review and editing, S.D. and T.S.U.; visualization, S.D. and S.G.; supervision, C.K.; project
administration, C.K., S.G. and S.D.; funding acquisition, T.S.U. All authors have read and agreed to
the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: Not Applicable.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not Applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not Applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not Applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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