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    Group Assignment Report

    Uploaded by

    Okewunmi Paul
    This document outlines an assignment to propose a probability distribution-based system to estimate failure rates of power distribution lines for a town's electrical company. It will demonstrate the system's effectiveness through relevant plots showing the predicted chances of line failures under different scenarios and failure rate conditions. The methodology will involve determining an appropriate probability distribution, defining relevant probability mass and cumulative functions, and illustrating the results.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Group Assignment Report

    Uploaded by

    Okewunmi Paul
    31 views7 pages
    This document outlines an assignment to propose a probability distribution-based system to estimate failure rates of power distribution lines for a town's electrical company. It will demonstrate the system's effectiveness through relevant plots showing the predicted chances of line failures under different scenarios and failure rate conditions. The methodology will involve determining an appropriate probability distribution, defining relevant probability mass and cumulative functions, and illustrating the results.

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    This document outlines an assignment to propose a probability distribution-based system to estimate failure rates of power distribution lines for a town's electrical company. It will demonstrate the system's effectiveness through relevant plots showing the predicted chances of line failures under different scenarios and failure rate conditions. The methodology will involve determining an appropriate probability distribution, defining relevant probability mass and cumulative functions, and illustrating the results.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    31 views7 pages

    Group Assignment Report

    Uploaded by

    Okewunmi Paul
    This document outlines an assignment to propose a probability distribution-based system to estimate failure rates of power distribution lines for a town's electrical company. It will demonstrate the system's effectiveness through relevant plots showing the predicted chances of line failures under different scenarios and failure rate conditions. The methodology will involve determining an appropriate probability distribution, defining relevant probability mass and cumulative functions, and illustrating the results.

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    EEE 505 Group Assignment

    Due Date: 20th December, 2023


    S/N REG NO. NAMES OF STUDENT

    1 EEG/2016/079 ABDULAZEEZ IBRAHIM AKINTAYO

    2 EEG/2017/006 ADEBUNMI MIRACLE MAYOWA

    3 EEG/2017/011 ADENIRAN OLUSOLA EMMANUEL

    4 EEG/2017/016 ADETONA OLUWATOBI RIDWAN

    5 EEG/2017/021 AGBOOLA EMMANUEL IFEOLUWA

    6 EEG/2017/025 AJILO GABRIEL AYOMIDE

    7 EEG/2017/029 AKINOLA SHAFIU OLAWALE

    8 EEG/2017/036 AWODIRE MAYOWA GABRIEL

    9 EEG/2017/042 BAYO-ADEGOKE IYANUOLUWA JONATHAN

    10 EEG/2017/046 DARE HARRY OLUWASEYI

    11 EEG/2017/050 ELUYEMI AYODEJI PRAISE

    12 EEG/2017/054 FATUNMBI OMOTOLANI FEYIKEMI

    13 EEG/2017/061 JAMES FAVOUR UTIBE-ABASI

    14 EEG/2017/070 LAWAL TOHEEB BABATUNDE

    15 EEG/2017/074 NWEKE EMEKA BERNARD

    16 EEG/2017/079 OKEWUNMI PAUL TEMILOLUWA

    17 EEG/2017/083 OLADIRAN ALABA D

    18 EEG/2017/087 OLUGBEMIGA JESUDAMILOLA ABUGEWA

    19 EEG/2017/091 OMOLOJU ADEFOLAHAN RUFUS

    20 EEG/2017/096 OWATI MOFIYINFOLUWA DANIEL

    21 EEG/2017/100 OYELERE TAIWO PAUL

    22 EEG/2017/105 TAIWO ADEDOTUN KEHINDE

    23 EEG/2017/110 ADEBUNMI HABEEB OPEYEMI

    24 EEG/2018/100 ADEOYE FAITH ADEBOWALE

    25 EEG/2018/106 FABIYI IDOWU NIYI

    26 EEG/2018/110 IGE SAMSON OMOTAYO

    27 EEG/2018/114 OGUNDEJI ABIOLA SAMUEL


    Question

    An electrical power distribution company needs a system to manage the failure rates

    of the distribution lines in a town. Propose a suitable system based on an appropriate

    probability distribution to estimate the chances of a certain number of lines failing

    and foster proper action by the power company. Demonstrate the effectiveness of

    your system with a range of values and relevant plot(s)

    0.1 Introduction

    Probability distributions find application across various scientific disciplines. They

    serve the purpose of quantifying and forecasting probabilities, as well as assessing

    the likelihood of specific outcomes. Additionally, they play a role in establishing

    confidence intervals for estimated values. Two fundamental types of probability dis-

    tribution functions exist: discrete and continuous.

    Discrete distributions consist of data elements with a finite set of values within a

    specified interval. A probability mass function (PMF) is employed to ascertain the

    probability associated with the discrete variable, while a cumulative mass function

    (CMF) is utilized to determine the probability that an observation will be less than

    or equal to a specified value Glantz and Kissell (2013). In essence, these functions

    can be described as follows.

    1
    Probability Mass Function (PMF):

    f (x) = Prob(X = x)

    Cumulative Mass Function (CMF):

    F (x) = Prob(X ≤ x)

    The primary cause of electricity supply disruptions to end-users is often attributed to

    breakdowns in the distribution grid. Consequently, accurately assessing the reliabil-

    ity of this grid is crucial for strategic planning of future infrastructure enhancements.

    However, the determination of reliability indices like the System Average Interrup-

    tion Duration Index (SAIDI) and the System Average Interruption Frequency Index.

    (SAIFI) relies heavily on the failure rates of various components, typically derived

    from historical data. Despite the inherent uncertainty, many planning models tend to

    treat these failure rates as if they were deterministic (Barra et al., 2020) We aim to

    propose a probability-based system designed to proactively estimate the failure rates

    of power lines, assisting the power distribution company in anticipating potential

    issues.

    2
    0.2 Problem Statement

    In a town, an electrical power distribution company experiences challenges in man-

    aging the failure rates of distribution lines, impacting the reliability of power supply

    to residents and businesses. The lack of an effective system for assessing and predict-

    ing line failures hinders the company’s ability to take proactive measures, leading to

    increased downtime and potential disruptions. To address this issue, a system based

    on an appropriate probability distribution needs to be proposed to estimate the like-

    lihood of a certain number of lines failing. This system aims to facilitate timely and

    informed decision-making by the power company, allowing them to implement pre-

    ventive measures and optimize resource allocation.

    To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, a range of values represent-

    ing different scenarios and potential failure rates will be considered. The system’s

    output will be visually represented through relevant plots, illustrating the predicted

    chances of line failures under varying conditions. This approach will provide a com-

    prehensive understanding of the system’s predictive capabilities and its potential to

    foster proper action by the power company in mitigating distribution line failures.

    3
    0.3 Research Methodology

    0.4 Illustration and Results

    0.5 Conclusion

    4
    REFERENCES

    Barra, J. d. l., Gil, E., Angulo, A., and Navarro-Espinosa, A. (2020). Effect of failure

    rates uncertainty on distribution systems reliability. In 2020 IEEE Power Energy

    Society General Meeting (PESGM), pages 1–5.

    Glantz, M. and Kissell, R. (2013). Multi-asset risk modeling: techniques for a global

    economy in an electronic and algorithmic trading era. Academic Press.

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