Chapter Two - Estimation (STA408)

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Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

Ms. Farhanah Binti Abd Wahab


Kolej Pengajian Pengkomputeran, Informatik & Media (KPPIM)
Universiti Teknologi MARA,
40450 Shah Alam
__________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

▪ Introduction – Sampling Distribution


▪ Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

▪ Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean, 𝑥ҧ


▪ Application of Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

▪ Introduction to Estimation
▪ Point Estimate
▪ Interval Estimate
➢ Confidence Interval for a Population Mean
➢ One Population Mean
➢ Two Population Means

➢ Confidence Interval for a Population Variance


➢ One Population Variance
➢ Ratio of Two Population Variances
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__________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

✓ Sampling distribution : A probability distribution of a particular statistic.


(Eg. Mean, Standard deviation, Variance)
✓ To understand sampling distribution, think about all possible random samples taken
from a population.

✓ For each sample calculate a statistic, for example


the mean. All the calculated statistics (sample
means 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 ) are arranged into a frequency
distribution. This frequency distribution is a
sampling distribution of the statistic (sample mean).
It will give you the probability of occurrence of the
statistics (sample mean) with particular values.

Numerical Descriptive Measures Population (Parameter) Sample (Statistic)

Mean σ𝑋 σ𝑥
𝜇= 𝑁
𝑥ҧ = 𝑛

Standard Deviation
1 σ𝑋 2 1 σ𝑥 2
𝜎= 𝑁 ෍ 𝑋2 − 𝑁
𝑠= 𝑛−1 ෍ 𝑥2 − 𝑛

Variance σ𝑥 2
2 1 2 σ𝑋 2 2 1 2
𝜎 = 𝑁 ෍𝑋 − 𝑁
𝑠 = 𝑛−1 ෍𝑥 −
𝑛

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✓ The mean and standard deviation of sampling distributions have a special


names;
➢ The mean is called the expected value.
➢ The standard deviation is called as standard error.

✓ These statistic and other numerical descriptive measures computed from the
samples can be used not only to describe the sample but also to make
inferences about the population parameter in the form of estimates and
hypothesis.

Make Estimation
Compute
Population Sample inferences/
statistic
conclusion

Hypothesis
testing

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✓ CLT states that the sampling distribution of any statistic will be normal or
approximately normal if the sample is large.

✓ When to use the Central Limit Theorem consider two things:


❑ If the original population is normally distributed or approximately
normal, then the distribution of the sample mean will be normally
distributed for any sample size n.

❑ If the original population is not normally distributed, the distribution of


the sample mean will be normally distributed for a sample size of 30 or
more.

Rule of thumb:
𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎
(consider large)
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❖ A sampling distribution of sample mean is a distribution using the means


computed from all possible random samples of a specific size taken from a
population.

The Central Limit Theorem on the Distribution of Sample Mean, 𝑥ҧ

1. The mean of the sample means will be the same as the population
mean,𝜇𝑥ҧ = 𝜇.
2. The standard deviation of the sample means will be smaller than the
standard deviation of the population, and it will be equal to population
𝜎
standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size, 𝜎𝑥ҧ = 𝑛

3. When the samples are selected from a finite population (sampling without
𝑛
replacement) of size N and 𝑁 ≥ 0.05, then the standard deviation of the
𝜎 𝑁−𝑛
distribution of sample mean is 𝜎𝑥ҧ = .
𝑛 𝑁−1

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Notation
2
𝑋ത ~ N (𝜇, 𝜎𝑛 )

Formula
𝑋ത − 𝜇
Z= 𝜎
𝑛
Sampling distribution of the
Sample Mean, 𝑋ത Where:
(CLT) 𝑋ത = sample mean
𝜇 = population mean
𝜎 = population standard deviation
n = sample size

Mean, 𝜇𝑥ҧ = μ
𝜎2
Variance, 𝜎 2 𝑥ҧ = 𝑛
Standard error
Standard Deviation, 𝜎𝑥ҧ = 𝜎
𝑛
of the mean
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Example 2.1: A production firm manufactures light bulbs that have a length of
life that approximately normally distributed with mean 800 hours and standard
deviation of 40 hours.
a) Write the probability distribution of the life of the light bulbs.
b) Write the sampling distribution of the mean life of the light bulbs.
c) Find the probability that the life of the light bulbs is more than 850 hours.
(Ans: 0.1056)
d) Find the probability that a random sample of 16 bulbs will have an average
life of less than 775 hours. (Ans: 0.00621)
Solution:

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Example 2.2: A manager observes that his income per day averages RM 1000
with standard deviation of RM 200. He selected a random sample of 30 days.
a) Describe the distribution of the sample mean.
b) What is the probability that the mean income for the sample of 30 days
exceeds RM 1050? (Ans: 0.0853)
c) What is the probability that the sample mean will be within RM 100 of the
population mean. (Ans: 0.9938)
Solution:

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Example 2.3: Children watch an average of 20 hours of television per week.


Assume that the variable is normally distributed with standard deviation of 3
hours. If 15 children are randomly selected, find the probability that the mean
number of hours they watch television will be greater than 22 hours.
(Ans: 0.00494)
Solution:

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 Estimation : A procedure by which a numerical value are assigned to a


population parameter based on the information collected from a sample.

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Types of estimation

Point Estimate Interval Estimate


The value of a sample statistic An interval constructed around
that is used to estimate a the point estimate and this
population parameter. interval is likely to contain the
(single number) population parameter.
(in range)

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 Estimator : The quantity calculated from the sample data to estimate population
parameters.
 If we have two or more estimators for the same parameters, we need to compare them and
choose the best estimator.
Properties of Best Estimator

Unbiased Consistent Efficient


An estimate is said to be If we consider all possible unbiased estimates of An estimate is said to be
unbiased if the expected consistent if the variance
some population parameter θ, to choose tends to zero as the number
value of the estimate equals between the different unbiased estimator, we
to the true value of the of observations increase
would consider the variance. (become larger).
population parameter.
An estimator is efficient if its variance is
minimum among all unbiased estimator (the 𝜃෠ is a consistent estimator
෠ =θ
E(𝜃) smallest variance) for θ is if increasing the
sample size produces an
If 𝜃෠1 and 𝜃෠2 are two unbiased estimators of θ estimate with smaller
and Var (𝜃෠1 ) < Var (𝜃෠2 ), then 𝜃෠1 is an efficient standard error.
estimator of θ .
෡)=0
𝐥𝐢𝐦 𝑽( 𝜽
෡ 𝟏 ) < Var (𝜽
෡𝟐 ) 𝒏→∞
Var (𝜽
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Point Estimate
➢ A single number calculated from the sample to estimate population
parameter
➢ The best point estimate of the population mean, µ is the sample mean, x.

Parameter Point estimator


To generalize estimation to
σ𝑥
population… 𝜇 𝑥ҧ = 𝑛

✓ Sample must be random. 1 σ𝑥 2


𝜎 𝑠= σ 𝑥2 −
✓ Each element has equal 𝑛−1 𝑛
chance to be included in
the sample. 1 σ𝑥 2
𝜎2 𝑠 2 = 𝑛−1 σ 𝑥 2 − 𝑛

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Example 2.4: The total time for exercise in a week among 8 career women is
selected. The resulting observations are 10.2 9.3 11.9 9.2 8.3 11.2 10.4 9.5.
What are the point estimates of mean and standard deviation of exercise time?

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Interval Estimate
➢ Two numbers calculated from the sample to form an interval within
which the parameter is expected to lie with a specified level of
confidence.

➢ We can write the confidence interval for a parameter 𝜃 as


𝑃 𝑎 <𝜃 <𝑏 =1−𝛼

Where,
a = the lower limit of the interval
b = the upper limit of the interval
1 − 𝛼 = the confidence coefficient
(1 − 𝛼)100% = the confidence level

➢ The confidence level measures the probability that the interval contains
the parameter being estimated.

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Confidence Interval (CI) ഥ ± 𝒕α sd
𝒅 ൗ ,𝒏−𝟏 𝒏
𝟐
σ𝑑
𝑑ҧ =
Population Mean 𝑛𝑑

1 σ𝑑 2
sd = ෍ d2 −
One Population Two Population nd − 1 𝑛𝑑

Dependent
σ2 σ2 Independent Sample
known unknown Sample
ഥ ± 𝐙𝛂ൗ 𝛔
𝐗 𝜎12 = 𝜎22
𝟐 𝐧 𝜎12 and 𝜎22
known
𝟏 𝟏
ഥ±
𝑿 𝒕αൗ ,𝒏−𝟏 𝒔𝒏 (ഥ
𝒙𝟏 −ഥ
𝒙𝟐 ) ± 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 𝒔𝒑 +
𝟐
𝝈𝟐𝟏 𝝈𝟐𝟐 𝟐 𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐
(ഥ
𝒙𝟏 −ഥ
𝒙𝟐 ) ± 𝒁𝜶 +
𝟐 𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐 df = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 − 2

𝜎12 and 𝜎22


unknown

𝜎12 ≠ 𝜎22

𝒔𝟐𝟏 𝒔𝟐𝟐
(ഥ
𝒙𝟏 −ഥ
𝒙𝟐 ) ± 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 +
𝟐 𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐
df = 𝑛1 − 1 / 𝑛2 − 1 17
Confidence Interval (CI)

Population Variance

One Population Ratio of Two Population

𝜎12
σ2
𝜎22

𝑛 − 1 𝑠2 𝑛 − 1 𝑠2
< 𝜎2 < 𝑠12 1 𝑠12
𝜒𝛼2 𝜒2 𝛼 , 𝐹𝛼
2 ,𝑛−1
1− 2 ,𝑛−1
𝑠22 𝐹𝛼,𝑣 ,𝑣 𝑠22 2 ,𝑣2,𝑣1
2 1 2

𝜎1
σ
𝜎2

𝑛 − 1 𝑠2 𝑛 − 1 𝑠2 𝑠12 1 𝑠12
<𝜎< , 𝐹𝛼
𝜒𝛼2 𝜒2 𝛼 𝑠22 𝐹𝛼,𝑣 ,𝑣 𝑠22 2 ,𝑣2,𝑣1
2 ,𝑛−1 1− 2 ,𝑛−1
2 1 2

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One Assumption
Population, ✓ Random sample
known σ2 ✓ Small or large sample
✓ σ2 is known

Formula

The (1-α) 100% confidence level for population mean, 𝜇 is

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____________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

Example 2.5: The average lifetime of a product from a sample of


30 items is found to be 48 months. It is estimated that the standard
deviation of the population is 3 months. Find the 95% confidence
interval for the average lifetime of the product.

∴ We are 95% confident that the interval for average lifetime


of the product is between 46.926 and 49.074

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____________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

Example 2.6: Now, repeat the same problem by finding the 90%
confidence interval for the average lifetime.

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Assumption
One
Population, ✓ Random sample
unknown σ2 ✓ The population is normal distributed
✓ σ2 is unknown

Formula

The (1-α) 100% confidence level for population mean, 𝜇 is

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____________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

Example 2.7: The breaking strengths of 11 bundles of wool fibers have a


sample mean 436.5 and a sample standard deviation of 11.90. Assume the
breaking strengths of the populations are normally distributed. Construct a
90% confidence interval for the mean breakings strengths for wool fibers.
(Ans: 429.9989, 443.0014)

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____________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

Example 2.8: A pharmaceutical manufacturer purchases a particular


material from a supplier. The manufacturer selects nine shipments from
the supplier and measures the percentage of impurities in the raw material
from each shipment. The sample means and variances are and 1.89 and
0.273. Find a 90% confidence interval for and interpret your results.
(Ans: 1.5661, 2.2139)

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Example 2.9: A sample 15 bulbs were tested and the lengths of life are as follows
(hours):
4300 , 4302, 4415, 4483, 4301, 4446, 4478, 4319
3985, 4483, 4377, 4401, 4346, 4261, 4353
Assume the data a normal distribution.

Use the table above to answer the following questions.


a) Prove that the mean lengths of life bulbs is 4350 hours
b) Prove that the 98% confidence interval of the true mean is the same as in the
computer output.

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Types of Interval Estimation /


Confidence Interval for Two
Population Means

Independent samples Dependent samples

✓ To determine the ✓ To determine the effectiveness


difference in mean pH of Kevin Zahari’s diet program.
of rainfall in Shah Alam Participant’s weight before and
and Klang after program is measured

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Independent sample

Two population
means, Known
𝝈𝟐𝟏 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝝈𝟐𝟐
Formula

The (1-α) 100% confidence level for two


population means, 𝜇1 − 𝜇2 is
Assumption

✓ The population is normal


distributed 𝜎12 𝜎22
(𝑥ҧ1 −𝑥ҧ2 ) ± 𝑍𝛼 +
✓ 𝜎12 and 𝜎22 is known 2 𝑛1 𝑛2

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Example 2.10: A survey of low-and middle-income households show that


consumers aged 65 years and older had an average credit card debt of RM10,235
and consumers in the 50- to 64-year group had an average credit card debt of
RM9,342 at the time of survey. Suppose that these averages where based on the
random samples of 1200 and 1400 people for the two groups, respectively.
Further, assume that the population standard deviations for the two groups were
RM2,800 and RM2,500, respectively. Let 𝜇1 and 𝜇2 be the respective population
means for the two groups, people ages 65 years and older and people in the 50- to
64- year age group. Construct a 95% confidence interval for 𝜇1 − 𝜇2 . Based on the
interval, are the 𝜇1 and 𝜇2 equal? Explain. (Ans: (687.456 , 1098.544) )

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Independent sample

Two population
Formula
Means, 𝝈𝟐𝟏 = 𝝈𝟐𝟐
and unknown The (1-α) 100% confidence level for two
population means, 𝜇1 − 𝜇2 is

Assumption
1 1
(𝑥ҧ1 −𝑥ҧ2 ) ± 𝑡𝛼,𝑑𝑓 𝑠𝑝 +
✓ The population is normal 2 𝑛1 𝑛2
distributed Where
✓ 𝜎12 and 𝜎22 is unknown 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 − 2
✓ Variances are assumed to be
equal
𝑛1 − 1 𝑠12 + 𝑛2 − 1 𝑠22
𝑆𝑝 =
𝑛1 + 𝑛2 − 2
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Example 2.11: An insurance company wants to know if the average speed at


which men drive cars is greater than that of women drivers. The company took a
random sample of 26 cars driven by men on a highway and found the mean speed
to be 72 miles per hour with a standard deviation of 2.2 miles per hour. Another
sample of 16 cars driven by women on the same highway gave a mean speed of 68
miles per hour with standard deviation of 2.5 miles per hour. Assume that the
speeds at which all men and all women drive cars on this highway are both
normally distributed with the same population standard deviation.

Construct a 98% confidence interval for the difference between the mean speeds
of cars driven by all men and all women on this highway. (Ans: 𝑠𝑝 = 2.317,
(2.2162,5.7838))

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____________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

Example 2.12: The manufacturer of a small battery-powered tape recorder decides to


include four alkaline batteries with its product. Two battery suppliers are being
considered; each has its own brand (brand 1 and brand 2). The supervising inspector of
incoming quality wants to know if the average lifetimes of two brands are the same.
Based on past experience, she believes that the battery lifetimes follow a normal
distribution with equal variances. A sample experiment is conducted: each of ten
batteries (five of each brand) is connected to a test device that places a small drain on
the battery power and records the battery lifetimes the following result (in hours) are
obtained:
Brand 1 43 48 38 41 51
Brand 2 30 26 37 31 34

Construct a 95% confidence interval on the differences between the average lifetimes of
the two brands. Can the supervising inspector of incoming quality conclude that the
average lifetimes of the two brands are equal? (Ans: 5.682, 19.518)

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Independent sample

Two population
Means, 𝝈𝟐𝟏 ≠ 𝝈𝟐𝟐
and unknown
Formula

The (1-α) 100% confidence level for two population


means, 𝜇1 − 𝜇2 is
Assumption
s12 s22
(𝑥ҧ1 −𝑥ҧ2 ) ± t α,df +
✓ Populations are normally 2 n1 n2
distributed
✓ 𝜎12 and 𝜎22 are unknown but the Where
variances are assumed to be
different / unequal 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑟 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 (𝑛1 − 1) 𝑜𝑟 (𝑛2 − 1)

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Example 2.13: The breaking strengths of 11 bundles of wool fibers have a


sample mean 436.5 and a sample standard deviation of 11.90. In addition,
the breaking strengths of another 12 bundles of synthetic fibers have a
sample mean 452.8 and a sample standard deviation 3.61. Assume the
breaking strengths of the two populations are normally distributed with
unequal variances.
Construct a 95% confidence interval on the mean difference of breaking
strengths between wool fibers and synthetic fibers. Explain your answer?
(Ans: -24.6245, -7.9755 or -24.5235,-8.0764)

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Example 2.14: A set of facilitation tools to help with data analysis for problem solving
is being developed by a group of statisticians at UiTM. In order to test effectiveness of
these tools, a group of research officers were asked to analyze and produce a built-in
report for a set of data on the computer. Twelve equally capable research officers were
randomly selected and six were randomly assigned a standard procedure to complete
the task. The other six were asked to do the task using the developed facilitation tools.
The response measured was the time to completion (in minutes). The data collected are
shown below:

Group 1 (standard procedure) 61 69 68 74 58 63


Group 2 (facilitation tool) 32 42 40 34 38 33

Assume that the population variances of the two procedures are different. Construct a
99% confidence interval to estimate the difference between the average completion
times for the two procedures. Can you conclude that the facilitation tools increase the
speed with which the task is completed by more than 20 minutes? (Ans: 19.18, 38.82 or
17.1987, 40.8013)

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Example 2.15: The following Minitab Output was obtained from two independent
samples selected from two normally distributed populations with unknown and unequal
standard deviations.

a) Verify that the degrees of freedom is 17.


b) Show that the 95% confidence interval of the difference in mean of the two
populations is between -5.25 and 11.23.

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Dependent sample

Formula
Two population
Means, Dependent The (1-α) 100% confidence interval for the mean
difference between two observations from matched
Samples
samples, 𝜇𝑑 is
sd
ഥ ± 𝒕α
𝒅 ൗ 𝟐,𝒏−𝟏 𝒏
✓ Matched or paired σ𝑑
ഥ𝑑 =
samples involve a 𝑛𝑑
procedure whereby pairs of 1 σ𝑑 2
observations are matched as Sd = ෍ d2 −
nd − 1 𝑛𝑑
close as possible according
to certain relevant
characteristics

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Example 2.16: The manufacturer of a gasoline additive claimed that the use of this
additive increases gasoline mileage. A random sample of six cars was selected and
these cars were driven for one week without the gasoline additive and then for one
week with the gasoline additive. The following table gives the miles per gallon for
these cars without and with the gasoline additive.
Without 24.6 28.3 18.9 23.7 15.4 29.5

With 26.3 31.7 18.2 25.3 18.3 30.9

Construct a 95% confidence interval for the difference in mean mileage per gallon
for cars without and with the gasoline additive. (Ans: -3.2150,-0.2184)

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Example 2.17: Many engineering students are having problems in data analysis using
statistical software. A professor who teaches statistics for engineering course offered a two
day workshop on this topic. The following table gives the test scores of seven engineering
students before and after they attended the workshop.

Before 56 69 48 74 65 71 58
After 62 73 44 85 71 70 69

Paired T-Test and CI: before, after

Paired T for before – after

N Mean StDev SE Mean


before 7 63.00 9.35 3.53
after 7 67.71 12.51 4.73
Difference 7 -4.71 5.65 2.13

95% CI for mean difference: (-9.94, 0.51)


T-Test of mean difference = 0 (vs ≠ 0): T-Value = -2.21 P-Value = 0.069

a) Show that 95% confidence interval for the difference in mean tests scores before and after
attending the workshop is between -9.94 and 0.51.
b) Can we conclude whether attending the workshop increases the test score?
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Confidence Interval for Population Variance

One Population Ratio of Two Population

Chi-Square F- Distribution
Distribution

Characteristics

✓ All values ≥ 0 ✓ Area under the curve = 1

✓ The distribution is skewed


to the right
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Assumption

The population is normally distributed.

Formula

The (1- 𝛼) 100% confidence interval for a variance, 𝜎 2 :

𝑛 − 1 𝑠2 𝑛 − 1 𝑠2
< 𝜎2 <
𝜒𝛼2 𝜒2 𝛼
2 , 𝑛−1 1− 2 , 𝑛−1

The (1- 𝛼) 100% confidence interval for a standard deviation, 𝜎:

𝑛 − 1 𝑠2 𝑛 − 1 𝑠2
<𝜎<
𝜒𝛼2 𝜒2 𝛼
2 , 𝑛−1
1− 2 , 𝑛−1

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Example 2.18: Find the 95% confidence interval for the variance and standard
deviation of the nicotine content of cigarettes manufactured if a random sample
of 20 cigarettes has a standard deviation of 1.6 milligrams. Assume that the
variable is normally distributed. (Ans: 1.5 < 𝜎 2 < 5.5 , (1.2 < 𝜎 < 2.3) )

Example 2.19: A pharmaceutical manufacturer purchases a particular material


from Supplier ABC. The manufacturer selects nine shipments from the supplier
and measures the percentage of impurities in the raw material from each
shipment. The sample means and variances are 1.85 and 0.094. Find a 99%
confidence interval for σ and interpret your results. (Ans: 0.185, 0.748)

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Assumption

The population is normally distributed.

Formula
𝜎12
The (1- 𝛼) 100% confidence interval for ratio of two population variances, is
𝜎22
𝑠12 1 𝑠12
, 2 𝐹𝛼,𝑣
𝑠22 𝐹𝛼 𝑠2 ,𝑣
2 2 1
2 ,𝑣1 ,𝑣2

The (1- 𝛼) 100% confidence interval for ratio of two population standard
𝜎1
deviations, is
𝜎2

𝑠12 1 𝑠12
, , 2 𝐹𝛼,𝑣
𝑠22 𝐹𝛼 𝑠2 ,𝑣
2 2 1
2 ,𝑣1 ,𝑣2

where, v1 = n1 - 1 , v2 = n2 - 1
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Example 2.20: The manufacturer of a small battery-powered tape recorder


decides to include four alkaline batteries with its product. Two battery suppliers
are being considered; each has its own brand (brand 1 and brand 2). The
supervising inspector of incoming quality believes that the battery lifetimes
follow a normal distribution with equal variances. A sample experiment is
conducted: each of ten batteries (five of each brand) is connected to a test device
that places a small drain on the battery power and records the battery lifetime the
following results (in hours) are obtained:

Brand 1 43 48 38 41 51
Brand 2 30 26 37 31 34

Construct a 95% confidence interval on the ratio of the variances of lifetimes of


the battery of the two brands. Interpret the confidence interval obtained. Do the
interval supports the supervising inspector’s believes that the variances lifetimes
of the two brands are equal? (Ans: 0.167, 15.371)

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____________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

Example 2.21: The following Minitab output was obtained from two independent
samples selected from two normally distributed populations with unknown and
unequal variances. Show that the lower limit for the 95% confidence interval of
the ratio of variances and standard deviations for the two populations are as given
in the output.

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____________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

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__________________________________Statistics For Science and Engineering (STA408)

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