Ey Economy Watch December 2023

86th issue
Economy Watch
Monitoring India’s
macro-fiscal performance
December 2023
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Contents
Foreword: Indian economy to scale 7% in spite of global drag 4
1 Growth: real GDP grew by 7.6% in 2QFY24 5
2 Inflation: CPI inflation increased to 5.6% in November 2023 7
3 Fiscal: GoI’s capital expenditure growth stood at 33.7% during April-October FY24 8
4 Comparative trends: IMF projected India’s current account deficit at 1.8% of GDP in FY24 and FY25 10
5 In focus: Sixteenth Finance Commission: starting from the constitutional slate 11
6 Money and finance: the RBI retained the repo rate at 6.5% in December 2023 22
7 Trade and CAB: merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$20.6 billion in November 2023 24
8 Global growth: OECD projected global growth at 2.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024 25
9 Index of Aggregate Demand (IAD): grew by 9.2% in October 2023 26
10 Capturing macro-fiscal trends: data appendix 27
Prepared by Macro-fiscal Unit, Tax and Economic Policy Group, EY India
D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY: dk.srivastava@in.ey.com

Muralikrishna Bharadwaj, Senior Manager, EY: muralikrishna.b@in.ey.com
Tarrung Kapur, Senior Manager, EY: tarrung.kapur@in.ey.com
Ragini Trehan, Senior Manager, EY: ragini.trehan@in.ey.com
Highlights
1. Led by a robust growth in investment demand, real GDP grew by 7.6% in
2QFY24 and by 7.7% in 1HFY24.
2. In November 2023, both manufacturing and services PMI remained at high

levels of 56 and 56.9 respectively.
3. IIP growth accelerated to a 16-month high of 11.7% in October 2023, largely

driven by a favorable base effect.
4. CPI inflation increased to 5.6% in November 2023 from 4.9% in October

2023, led by higher vegetable prices. Core CPI inflation, however, eased for
the fifth successive month to 4.1% in November 2023.
5. WPI inflation turned positive at 0.3% in November 2023 after contracting for
seven successive months led mainly by higher vegetables prices.
6. The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the repo rate for the fifth
successive time at 6.5% in its December 2023 monetary policy review.
7. During April-October FY24, GoI’s gross tax revenues (GTR) showed a growth
of 14%, with growth in direct taxes at 24.1% and that in indirect taxes at 3.5%.
8. GoI’s total expenditure grew by 11.7% during April-October FY24, with growth
in capital expenditure at 33.7% and that in revenue expenditure at 6.5%.
9. During April-October FY24, GoI’s fiscal and revenue deficits, as a proportion

of their annual BE, stood at 45% and 32.2%, respectively.
10. Gross bank credit continued to show a robust growth of 15.2% in October
2023, close to its level of 15.3% in September 2023.
11. Merchandise exports and imports contracted by (-)2.8% and (-)4.3% in

November 2023 respectively as compared to a growth of 6.2% and 12.3% in
October 2023, reflecting global slowdown and partly unfavorable base effect.
12. Merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$20.6 billion in November 2023

from an unprecedented high of US$31.5 billion in October 2023.
13. Net FDI inflows surged to US$5.9 billion in October 2023 from US$1.5 billion
in September 2023.
14. Average global crude price moderated to a four-month low of US$81.4/bbl. in

November 2023 from US$89.1/bbl. in October 2023.
15. The OECD (November 2023) has projected global growth at 2.9% in 2023,
with India’s FY24 growth forecasted at 6.3%.
Economy Watch: December 2023 | 3

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Foreword
Indian economy to scale 7% in spite of global drag
The RBI, in its December 2023 monetary policy review, has revised upward, its earlier real GDP growth forecast of
6.5% to 7% for FY24. The 1H national income accounts data showed a real gross capital formation (GCF) to GDP ratio
of 37.4% and a gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to GDP ratio of 35%. This investment rate (GFCF) is the highest
since 2011-12 considering investment rates in the first and second halves of fiscal years. This, in combination with
improved capacity utilization in the Indian economy which was at 76.3% in 4QFY23 and 73.6% in 1QFY24 augurs well
with RBI’s growth optimism. Not only is the prospect of real GDP growth in FY24 high, it is also sectorally quite broad-
based. Considering the 1H GVA data with construction showing a growth of 10.5%, manufacturing of 9.3% and
financial, real estate et al. of 9.0%, some of the key sectors of the economy are showing a robust growth. Even the
trade, hotels, transport et al. sector which had remained below its pre-COVID level of FY20, has now fully recovered.
Thus, the Indian economy has now left the COVID shadow well behind and has also negotiated well, the global
headwinds that emerged due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with reliance on domestic growth impulses.
Available high frequency indicators support RBI’s growth assessment for FY24. In November 2023, both
manufacturing and services PMI remained at high levels of 56 and 56.9 respectively, although the growth momentum
in services eased. Gross GST collections remained high at INR1.67 lakh crore in November 2023 as compared to
INR1.72 lakh crore in October 2023. According to the data released by Federation of Automobile Dealers Association
(FADA), retail sales of vehicles showed a robust growth of 18.5% in November 2023 led by a strong growth of 21.1%
and 17.2% respectively in two-wheeler and passenger vehicle segments. IIP growth accelerated to a 16-month high
of 11.7% in October 2023. Core IIP also showed a robust growth at 12.1% in October 2023, improving from 9.2% in
September 2023. Gross bank credit continued to show a double-digit growth of 15.2% in October 2023, close to its
level of 15.3% in September 2023.
RBI’s CPI inflation forecast for the year as a whole is 5.4%. CPI inflation was at 5.6% in November 2023. Considering
average CPI inflation over April-November 2023 of 5.4%, RBI’s annual inflation estimate appears to be realistic. It is
however higher than the target average CPI inflation of 4%. Given the growth and inflation projections, the RBI may
continue to hold the repo rate at the present level for some more time. WPI inflation on the other hand, has been
negative during April-October 2023. It has only marginally turned positive in November 2023 at 0.3%. For the year
as a whole, it may remain low or close to zero. This implies that the implicit price deflator (IPD)-based inflation which
is based on a relatively higher weight given to WPI, may be in the range of 2-2.5%. The combination of a real growth
of 7% with an IPD-based inflation of 2.3% may be consistent with a nominal GDP growth of 9.5%.
Some of the extant risk factors to growth also appear to be abating. First, in spite of earlier doubts about deficient
monsoon, agriculture may still grow at about 2.5 to 3% for the year as a whole. Second, the prospect of global crude
prices remaining comparatively moderate, below US$80/bbl. appears bright. Further, the global drag on the Indian
economy in the form of the negative contribution of net exports to real GDP growth was one of the highest at (-)4.1%
points in 1HFY24. This may moderate in the second half with some improvement in both merchandise and services
exports.
An important condition for maintaining the growth momentum of 1HFY24 in the second half pertains to the
government’s continued emphasis on capital spending. Even though nominal GDP growth may be lower than the
budgeted level of 10.5% by about 1% point, the high direct tax buoyancy may enable the GoI to at least meet its budget
estimates for gross tax revenues (GTR). Direct taxes showed a growth of 24.1% during April-October FY24 with CIT
showing a growth of 17.4% and PIT of 31.1%. This is likely to enable it to maintain its capital spending momentum
which was budgeted to grow at 37.4% for FY24 while meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9% of GDP.
D.K. Srivastava
Chief Policy Advisor, EY India

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1 Growth: real GDP grew by 7.6% in 2QFY24
1.1 GDP and GVA: showed strong growth rates of 7.6% and 7.4% respectively in 2QFY24
► As per the national accounts data released by the MoSPI on 30 November 2023, real GDP grew by 7.6% in
2QFY24 (Chart 1). Combining this with the 1QFY24 GDP growth, the 1HFY24 real GDP growth stood at 7.7%,
improving from 5.3% in 2HFY23.
Chart 1: Real GDP growth (%, y-o-y)
► On the demand side, GFCF grew by
11.6% in 2QFY24 (Table 1). With 25.0
this, the contribution of GFCF to
overall GDP growth was the highest 15.0 9.1 6.2 7.6
4.3
in 2QFY24 as well as in 1HFY24. A 5.0
large part of this may be attributable
-5.0
to higher capital expenditure by both -5.7
central and state governments. -15.0
► Among the other two domestic -25.0

1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
demand components, government
consumption expenditure (GFCE)
posted a strong growth of 12.4% in
2QFY24. On the contrary, growth in Table 1: Real GDP and GVA growth (%, annual)
private final consumption
expenditure (PFCE) was low at 3.1% Agg. 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 1H
demand FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY24
in 2QFY24. Both these components
grew by 5.1% and 4.5% respectively PFCE 14.2 10.8 4.7 19.8 8.3 2.2 2.8 6.0 3.1 4.5
in 1HFY24. GFCE 11.7 5.8 11.8 1.8 -4.1 -0.6 2.3 -0.7 12.4 5.1
► With regard to external demand, GFCF 12.4 1.2 4.9 20.4 9.6 8.0 8.9 8.0 11.0 9.5
exports growth at 4.3% was EXP 25.1 27.8 22.4 19.6 12.2 11.1 11.9 -7.7 4.3 -1.7
significantly lower than imports IMP 26.6 19.7 6.7 33.6 23.1 10.7 4.9 10.1 16.7 13.5
growth at 16.7% in 2QFY24, leading GDP 9.1 5.2 4.0 13.1 6.2 4.5 6.1 7.8 7.6 7.7
to a negative contribution of net Output side
exports to real GDP growth at (-)3.6%
Agr. 4.8 2.3 4.1 2.4 2.5 4.7 5.5 3.5 1.2 2.4
points. Thus, due to sustained
weakness in global demand during Ming. 10.6 5.4 2.3 9.5 -0.1 4.1 4.3 5.8 10.0 7.6
1HFY24, net exports contribution to Mfg. 6.6 1.3 0.6 6.1 -3.8 -1.4 4.5 4.7 13.9 9.3
GDP growth was at a historic low Elec. 10.8 6.0 6.7 14.9 6.0 8.2 6.9 2.9 10.1 6.4
(2011-12 series) of (-)4.1% points. Cons. 10.8 0.2 4.9 16.0 5.7 8.3 10.4 7.9 13.3 10.5
► On the output side, led by broad Trans. 13.1 9.2 5.0 25.7 15.6 9.6 9.1 9.2 4.3 6.6
based improvement in the growth Fin. 7.0 4.3 4.6 8.5 7.1 5.7 7.1 12.2 6.0 9.0
across major sectors, real GVA Publ. 16.8 10.6 5.2 21.3 5.6 2.0 3.1 7.9 7.6 7.7
posted a robust growth of 7.4% in
GVA 9.3 4.7 3.9 11.9 5.4 4.7 6.5 7.8 7.4 7.6
2QFY24. Combining this with the
Source: MoSPI, GoI
1QFY24 growth of 7.8%, real GVA
growth for 1HFY24 stood at 7.6%.
► In 2QFY24, among the key GVA sectors, growth in manufacturing was the highest at 13.9%, followed by that in
construction at 13.3%. In addition, growth in public administration and defence et al. and, financial, real estate et
al. sectors also showed strong growth rates of 7.6% and 6.0% respectively in 2QFY24. Together, these four
sectors have contributed 5.8% points, that is, about 76% to overall GVA growth in 1HFY24.
► With a growth of 9.2% and 4.3% in 1Q and 2QFY24 respectively, the magnitude of trade, hotel, transport et al.
sector in 1HFY24 has surpassed its corresponding magnitude in the pre-COVID period of 1HFY20 by 4.5%,
considering first halves of post-COVID fiscal years. This indicates that this employment-intensive sector has now
recovered from COVID’s impact.
► Growth in agriculture, however, fell to an 18-quarter low of 1.2% in 2QFY24 largely owing to deficient and
uneven distribution of southwest monsoon. In 1HFY24, GVA in agriculture grew by 2.4%, similar to its level in
1HFY23.
1.2 PMI: in November 2023, composite PMI output index at 57.4, showed its weakest rate of
expansion in one year
► Headline manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted (sa)) picked up from its eight-month low of 55.5 in October
2023 to 56 in November 2023, outpacing the series trend at 53.9 (Chart 2). Sustained growth in new orders
both domestically and from abroad contributed to the robust performance of this sector during the month.
► Despite falling from 58.4 in October 2023 to a one-year low of 56.9 in November 2023, services PMI indicated a
sharp expansion in the output of this sector. Rising inflation expectations contributed to a loss in growth
momentum during the month.
► Signaling an easing growth in services sector, the composite PMI Output Index (sa) fell from 58.4 in October
2023 to 57.4 in November 2023, its lowest level in one year.
Chart 2: PMI and IIP growth
24 65
56.9
20 60 In November 2023, both
16 56 55 manufacturing and
12 50
services PMI remained at
8 45
11.7 high levels of 56 and 56.9
4 40
0 35 respectively, although the
-4 30 growth momentum in
services eased.
Oct-22
Dec-22
Oct-23
Mar-23
Aug-22
Nov-22
Aug-23
Nov-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
May-23
Feb-23
Jun-23
Sep-22
Jul-23
Sep-23
IIP (% growth, LHS) PMI (manufacturing, RHS)

PMI (services, RHS) PMI benchmark (RHS)
Source: MoSPI and S&P Global.
1.3 IIP: growth accelerated to 11.7% in October 2023

IIP growth accelerated to
► According to the quick estimates, IIP posted a double-digit growth of 11.7% in a 16-month high of
October 2023, its highest level since June 2022, as compared to 6.2% 11.7% in October 2023,
(revised) in September 2023 (Chart 1). This sharp pick-up in growth may largely driven by a
largely be attributable to a favorable base effect. favourable base effect.
► Among sub-industries, manufacturing output, with a share of 77.6% in the
overall IIP, grew by 10.4% in October 2023. This was more than double the growth seen in September 2023 at
4.9%. Within manufacturing, some key sectors which showed double-digit growth during the month include other
machinery and equipment (26.1%) 1, motor vehicles (24.4%), other non-metallic mineral products (12.9%), basic
metals (11.9%), and pharmaceuticals and medicinal products (11.2%). Growth in the output of coke and refined
petroleum products remained subdued at 2.4% in October 2023.
► Among other major sub-industries, the mining sector output continued to post a double-digit growth for the fifth-
successive month at 13.1% in October 2023. While the electricity output also showed a robust growth at 20.4% in
October 2023, it may be largely attributable to a favorable base effect.
► As per the ‘use-based’ classification of industries, growth in the output of capital goods, which is usually volatile,
was the highest at 22.6% in October 2023. This was followed by the output of consumer durables with a growth
of 15.9% and that of infrastructure/construction at 11.3%. Output of consumer non-durables also grew by 8.6% in
October 2023 as compared to 3.0% in September 2023. One may note that except infrastructure/construction,
robust growth rates across other use-based segments can be attributable to a favorable base effect.
► According to provisional estimates, the output of eight core infrastructure industries (core IIP) showed a robust
growth at 12.1% in October 2023, improving from 9.2% (revised) in September 2023. This strong growth
momentum is due to high growth rates across sub-industries including electricity (20.3%), coal (18.4%), cement
(17.1%), steel (11.0%), and natural gas (9.9%). On the contrary, growth in the output of crude oil remained
subdued at 1.3% in October 2023.
1
Refers to machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c)
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2 Inflation: CPI inflation increased to 5.6% in November 2023
2.1 CPI inflation

► Inflation in vegetables increased to a three-month high of 17.7% in November 2023 from 2.8% in October 2023
partly on account of an unfavorable base effect. Inflation in tomatoes turned positive at 11.4% in November
2023 after showing a contraction of (-)43.9% in October 2023
► In November 2023, consumer food inflation increased to 8.7% from 6.6% in October 2023.
► Fuel and light prices contracted for the third successive month by (-)0.8% in November 2023 as compared to (-
)0.4% in October 2023 mainly reflecting the recent price cut on LPG cylinders for all domestic users.
► Inflation in transportation and communication services remained low at 2.1% in November 2023, although
marginally higher than 2.0% seen in October 2023, primarily due to a favorable base effect.
► Inflation in clothing and footwear decelerated for the thirteenth consecutive month to 3.9% in November 2023
from 4.3% in October 2023.
► Core CPI inflation 2 fell to 4.1% in November 2023, its lowest level since April 2020, from 4.3% in the previous
month led by lower inflation in clothing and footwear.
Chart 3: Inflation (y-o-y, in %)
8.0 18.0 CPI inflation increased
6.0 5.6 13.5 to 5.6% in November
2023 from 4.9% in
4.0 9.0
4.1 October 2023, led by
2.0 4.5 higher vegetable prices.
0.3 Core CPI inflation,
0.0 0.0
however, eased for the
-2.0 -4.5
fifth successive month
Oct-22
Dec-22
Oct-23
Mar-23
Aug-22
Nov-22
Apr-23
May-23
Aug-23
Nov-23
Jan-23
Jun-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
to 4.1% in November
2023.
CPI inflation Core CPI inflation WPI inflation (RHS)
Source: MoSPI, Office of the Economic Adviser, Government of India (GoI)
2.2 WPI inflation: WPI inflation turned marginally positive at 0.3% in November 2023 after
contracting for seven successive months led mainly by higher vegetables prices
► Inflation in vegetables turned positive at 10.4% in November 2023 from (-)21.0% in October 2023 due partly to
unfavorable base effect and partly to higher vegetable prices. Inflation in tomatoes shot up to 24.0% in November
2023 from (-)56.6% in October 2023.
► WPI food index-based inflation increased to 4.7% in November from a four-month low of 1.1% in October 2023.
► Inflation in crude petroleum and natural gas remained negative at (-)7.1% in November 2023 as compared to (-
)2.2% in October 2023, mainly reflecting a favorable base effect.
► Prices of fuel and power continued to contract for the seventh consecutive month at (-)4.6% in November 2023
as compared to (-)2.5% in October 2023. The pace of contraction in mineral oils increased to (-)5.7% in November
2023 from (-)0.4% in October 2023 as diesel prices contracted by (-)13.1% in November 2023 from (-)6.8% in
October 2023 reflecting low global crude prices.
► Inflation in manufactured products remained negative for the ninth successive month at (-)0.6% in November
2023 as compared to (-)1.1% in October 2023.
► Core WPI witnessed a contraction for the ninth consecutive month at (-)0.4% in November 2023, marginally lower
than (-)1.0% in October 2023 as major product groups including manufactured chemicals and chemical products,
textiles, basic metals and paper and paper products remained in contraction mode.
2
Core CPI inflation is measured in different ways by different organizations/agencies. Here, it has been calculated by excluding food, and fuel and light from the overall
index.
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3 Fiscal: GoI’s capital expenditure growth stood at 33.7% during
April-October FY24
3.1 Tax and non-tax revenues
► As per the CGA, GoI’s GTR(b) showed a growth of 14% during the first seven months of FY24 as compared to 18%
during the corresponding period of FY23 (Chart 4).
► During 1HFY24, GTR stood at 54.6% of the annual BE, higher than the three-year average ratio based on actual
collections at 48.8%.
► Considering the nominal GDP growth of 8.6% in 1HFY24 and GTR growth of 16.3%, the estimated buoyancy is
1.9.
► Direct taxes(a) showed a double-digit growth of 24.1% while indirect taxes(a) grew by 3.5% during April-October
FY24. The corresponding growth rates in FY23 were at 25.9% and 11% respectively.
► CIT revenues grew by 17.4% during the first seven months of FY24 as compared to 24.1% during the same period
in FY23.
► PIT revenues grew by 31.1% during April-October FY24, higher than 27.7% during the corresponding period of
FY23.
► Among indirect taxes, GoI’s GST revenues(c) grew by 8.4% during April-October FY24, lower than 27.2% during
the corresponding period of FY23.
► Union excise duties (UED) showed a contraction of (-)9.3% during the first seven months of FY24 as compared to
(-)18.8% during the corresponding period of FY23.
► Customs duties grew by 1.2% during April-October FY24 as compared to 9.5% during the corresponding period of
FY23.
Chart 4: Growth in central gross tax revenues during April-October (%, y-o-y)
80
60
During April-October
40 FY24, GoI’s GTR
18.0 showed a growth of
55.8 14.0
20 6.7 14%, with growth in
1.2
direct taxes at 24.1%
0
and that in indirect
-20 taxes at 3.5%.
-16.8
-40
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Gross tax revenues Direct taxes Indirect taxes
Source: Monthly Accounts, CGA, Government of India
Notes: (a) Direct taxes include personal income tax and corporation tax, and indirect taxes include union excise duties, arrears of service tax, customs duty, and
GST (comprising CGST, UTGST, IGST and GST compensation cess) (b) Other taxes (securities transaction tax, wealth tax, fringe benefit tax, banking cash
transaction tax, etc.) are included in the GoI’s GTR along with direct and indirect taxes, (c) IGST revenues are subject to final settlement.
► GoI’s non-tax revenues showed a high growth of 48.7% during April-October FY24 on account of high receipt of
dividends and profits at INR1,24,530 crore, exceeding its FY24 BE by INR33,530 crore.
► Non-tax revenues during April-October FY24 as a proportion of annual BE stood at 88.1%, much higher than the
three-year average ratio of 58.3% based on actual collections.
► Non-debt capital receipts of the GoI during April-October FY24 stood at 27.4% of the BE, much lower than the
three-year average ratio of 42.7% based on actual collections.
► As per DIPAM 3, disinvestment receipts as of 22 December 2023 stood at INR10,049.64 crores, that is 19.7% of
the FY24 BE at INR51,000 crore.
3
https://dipam.gov.in/
3.2 Expenditures: revenue and capital
► GoI’s total expenditure grew by 11.7% during April-October FY24 as compared to 17.4% during the corresponding
period of the previous year.
► GoI’s revenue expenditure showed a growth of 6.5% during April-October FY24 as compared to 10.2% during the
corresponding period of FY23 (Chart 5). There is a likelihood of revenue expenditure exceeding its BE on account
of higher subsidy burden owing to relatively higher global crude prices.
► GoI’s capital expenditure was front-loaded, showing a strong growth of 33.7% during the first seven months of
FY24, although lower than 61.5% during the corresponding period of FY23.
Chart 5: Growth in central expenditures during April-October (%, y-o-y)

70 61.5
60
50 GoI’s total expenditure
40 28.3 33.7
grew by 11.7% during
30 April-October FY24, with
20 13.2 13.6 10.2 growth in capital
10 0.7 7.5 expenditure at 33.7%
8.8 13.6 6.5
0 and that in revenue
-1.9
-10 expenditure at 6.5%.
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
Revenue expenditure Capital expenditure
Source (basic data): Monthly Accounts, CGA, Government of India
3.3 Fiscal imbalance
► GoI’s fiscal deficit during April-October FY24 stood at 45% of the BE, close to the corresponding ratio in FY23
(Chart 6). In 1HFY24, GoI’s fiscal deficit stood at 5.6% of GDP.
► GoI’s revenue deficit during the first seven months of FY24 stood at 32.2% of the BE, its second lowest level at
least since FY01 (this ratio stood at its lowest level of 27.5% in FY22). In 1HFY24, revenue deficit relative to GDP
stood at 2%.
Chart 6: Fiscal and revenue deficit during April-October as percentage of BE

150
117.9 112.6 126.8
125
100
During April-October
FY24, GoI’s fiscal and
75 revenue deficits, as a
38.9 32.2
50 27.5 proportion of their
103.9
102.4
119.7
annual BE, stood at 45%

45.6
36.3
45.0
25
and 32.2%, respectively.
0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Fiscal deficit Revenue deficit
Source: Monthly Accounts, CGA, Government of India and MoSPI

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4 Comparative trends: IMF projected India’s current account
deficit at 1.8% of GDP in FY24 and FY25
4.1 Volume of exports of goods and services
► According to the IMF (World Economic Table 2: Volume of exports of goods and services (% change)
Outlook, October 2023), growth in the Country/Region 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
World 4.9 1.1 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3
volume of exports of goods and services at
AEs 5.3 1.8 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9
the global level is projected to fall sharply
US 7.1 1.6 -0.2 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.8
from 4.9% in 2022 to 1.1% in 2023, the UK 9.9 -2.8 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.6
lowest since 2001 excluding the years of Euro area 7.3 1.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1
global economic and financial crisis (2009) Japan 5.1 1.0 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7
and COVID (2020). This is mainly EMDEs 4.1 -0.1 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.1 3.9
attributable to the trade disruptions on Brazil 6.1 7.9 6.0 4.0 3.4 3.0 3.1
account of geopolitical tensions along with Russia -6.8 -7.5 5.7 3.9 3.1 3.1 3.1
easing global demand. India* 9.7 -0.9 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3
► While advanced economies (AEs) are China -2.0 -1.8 1.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
projected to witness a low but positive South Africa 7.4 3.6 5.8 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.6
growth of 1.8% in their export volumes in Source (basic data): IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2023)
2023, a contraction of (-)0.1% is projected *Data pertains to fiscal year
for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

► Among AEs, the IMF projects the growth in export volumes to ease in 2023 for all selected economies with a
contraction in the case of the UK. For the US, it projects growth in export volumes to remain positive in 2023
owing to record high petroleum exports but subsequently contract in 2024 (Table 2).
► Among EMDEs, Russia, India and China are likely to face a contraction in their export volumes. Despite falling
commodity prices, Brazil is projected to see a strong growth of 7.9% in its export volumes driven by agricultural
exports. In the case of South Africa, the IMF estimates growth in export volumes to remain positive at 3.6% in
2023 but decline from 7.4% in 2022.
► Growth in export volumes of major selected economies would likely recover beginning 2024 or 2025 in line with
an expected pick up in global demand and an easing of geopolitical tensions.
4.2 Current account balance

► In IMF’s assessment, current account Table 3: Current account balance (% of GDP)
Country/Region 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
balances would likely improve in 2023 as
AEs -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
compared to 2022 for all major AEs. The
US -3.8 -3.0 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -2.4
worsening of current account balances in UK -3.8 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.5
2022 largely reflected commodity price Euro area -0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
increases triggered by the geopolitical Japan 2.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2
conflict which caused a widening in oil and EMDEs 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3
other commodity trade balances. Brazil -2.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2
► In the medium term, the IMF forecasts all Russia 10.5 3.4 4.0 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.3
selected AEs to witness an improvement in India* -2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3
their current account balances owing to an China 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7
easing of commodity prices (Table 3). South Africa -0.5 -2.5 -2.8 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -2.1
Source (basic data): IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2023)
► A divergence in trends would characterize
*Data pertains to fiscal year; -ve indicates a deficit and +ve indicates a surplus
EMDEs. While current account deficit
relative to GDP would likely narrow for India and Brazil in 2023, it would likely widen for South Africa. Further,
current account surplus is projected to fall for Russia and China.
► In China, the IMF attributes the narrowing of the current account surplus in 2023 largely to a slowing of exports
due to sluggish global growth. At the same time, a very limited recovery in tourism imports would help maintain
the current account surplus. There would be a sharp easing of the current account surplus in Russia due to a fall
in the revenues from oil exports on account of discounted prices for Urals crude and lower natural gas exports.
► In South Africa, current account deficit would likely increase due to declines in the terms of trade, lower export
volumes, higher import volumes, and a weak domestic currency.

Home
5 In focus: Sixteenth Finance Commission: starting from the
constitutional slate
5.1 Introduction
There was a press notification dated 29 November 2023 4 indicating that the Terms of Reference (ToR) of the
Sixteenth Finance Commission (FC16) have been approved by the Union Cabinet. However, the Commission would be
formally constituted only after a Presidential notification. The approved ToR makes reference only to the
constitutional provisions under Articles 275 and 280 and departs from the earlier practice of giving a detailed set of
clauses asking the Commission to adopt a specified methodology and approach or particularly examine a set of listed
issues pertaining to the subject of fiscal transfers from the central to the state governments and also the local
governments.
5.2 Finance Commission’s reference period and ToR
Period of reference
The periodicity of five years which was being maintained since the Tenth Finance Commission covering FY96 to
FY00, was disturbed by the coverage of six years in the two Reports by the Fifteenth Finance Commission (FC15)
pertaining to FY21 and for the period FY22 to FY26 respectively. The Commission had faced certain difficulties in
selecting a suitable base year on account of the change of the status of Jammu and Kashmir from a state to a union
territory (UT) with legislature. Subsequently, the onset of COVID-19 which affected FY21, also had to be considered
in forecasting economic and fiscal outcomes during the recommendation period of the Commission. Before FC15, it
was the Ninth Finance Commission which had a reference period of six years.
The press notification dated 29 November 2023 indicates that FC16 will have a reference period extending from
FY27 to FY31. The two constitutional articles relevant for the constitution of the FC are 280 and 281. Clause (1) of
Article 280 provides that ‘The President shall, within two years from the commencement of this Constitution and
thereafter at the expiration of every fifth year or at such earlier time as the President considers necessary, by order
constitute a Finance Commission which shall consist of a Chairman and four other members to be appointed by the
President’. Thus, the Commission will stand constituted only after a Presidential notification. FC15 was notified
through a Presidential notification on 27 November 2017. A second notification extending the term of FC15 was
issued on 29 November 2019 5.
Number of states
When FC15 was constituted in November 2017, India had 29 states. However, with the Jammu and Kashmir
Reorganization Act 2019, the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir was made as a UT with legislature while Ladakh
was made a UT without legislature. Thus, in the first and the final reports of FC15 pertaining to FY21 and FY22 to
FY26 respectively, recommendations were made for the distribution of resources between the GoI and 28 states.
This situation may change again if and when Jammu and Kashmir is made a state in regard to the latest Supreme
Court judgement 6.
Terms of Reference
The ToR of FC16 as indicated by the press notification are as follows:
(1) The distribution between the Union and the States of the net proceeds of taxes which are to be, or may be,
divided between them under Chapter I, Part XII of the Constitution and the allocation between the States of
the respective shares of such proceeds;
(2) The principles which should govern the grants-in-aid of the revenues of the States out of the Consolidated
Fund of India and the sums to be paid to the States by way of grants- in-aid of their revenues under article
275 of the Constitution for the purposes other than those specified in the provisos to clause (1) of that article;
and
(3) The measures needed to augment the Consolidated Fund of a State to supplement the resources of the
Panchayats and Municipalities in the State on the basis of the recommendations made by the Finance
Commission of the State.
4
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1980688
5
https://fincomindia.nic.in/writereaddata/html_en_files/fincom15/others/Notification%20dated%2029.11.2019.pdf
6
https://frontline.thehindu.com/news/jammu-kashmir-supreme-court-upholds-abrogation-of-article-370-in-landmark-
decision/article67627243.ece
The Commission may review the present arrangements on financing Disaster Management initiatives, with reference
to the funds constituted under the Disaster Management Act, 2005 (53 of 2005), and make appropriate
recommendations thereon.
Para (1) of the ToR is based on Article 280 (3), subclause (a) of the Constitution. Para (2) of the ToR is based on
Article 280 (3), subclause (b) read with Article 275 (1) of the Constitution. Para (3) of the ToR is based on Article
280 (3), subclauses (bb) and (c) of the Constitution.
‘Disaster Management’ as a subject is not mentioned in any of the three lists of Schedule VII of the Constitution. It
means provisions regarding disaster management come under the Residuary Powers of the Union under entry 97 of
the Union List.
It used to be the case with reference to the earlier FCs that quite a number of other clauses were included in the ToR
reflecting the provision under clause (d) of Article 280 of the Constitution which made reference to ‘any other matter
referred to the Commission by the President in the interests of sound finance’. No specific matter has been referred
to FC16 under this clause. However, since this phrase is part of the Constitution, it should be open to the Commission
to consider any relevant matter in the interest of sound finance. Some of the other constitutional articles which may
have relevance for center-state fiscal relations relate to 292, 293, 270, and 271. Articles 292 and 293 provide that
Parliament may prescribe limits for borrowing by the central government and give approval to any borrowing by the
state governments if the GoI has extended any loan to the state government or with respect to which a guarantee has
been given. Article 270 deals with the distribution of union taxes between the central and the state governments.
Clauses (1), 1(a) and 1(b) of this Article cover all central taxes including GoI’s share of GST which are to be
distributed between the central and the state governments under the recommendations of the FC. Clause (2) of this
Article however relates to taxes which may be a part of the Union List but which may be assigned to the states.
Another important article namely, Article 271 provides for the levy of surcharge by the GoI. The levy of cess has
been mentioned in Article 270 (1) itself which can be levied under any law made by the Parliament for this purpose.
The heavy reliance on cesses and surcharges by the central government has been a subject of discussion in recent
times 7. This may continue to remain an important issue in the context of vertical distribution of resources between
central and state governments.
It would be clear when the Presidential notification constituting FC16 becomes available whether any other ToR
would be referred to the Commission. As the matters stand at present, the press notification is limited to only the
constitutional provisions indicated earlier. If this situation does not change, this may be a fresh and a welcome
departure from the earlier practice as it does not constrain the Commission by a detailed set of considerations. This
would only mean that considering the entire ambit of center-state fiscal transfers and the constitutional provisions in
regard to this, the Commission is free to determine its own approach and methodology. This is also provided for
under Article 280 (4) that clearly states that ‘the Commission shall determine their procedure and shall have such
powers in the performance of their functions as Parliament may by law confer on them.’
Relevance of missing the missed clauses
In fact, what has been missed out in relation to the ToRs of the preceding FCs, especially some of the recent ones,
may be of significance. Some of the missed-out clauses may be grouped under the following sub-categories:
1. Specification of a Census year: The ToR of some of the earlier Commissions had mentioned a specific Census
year. Since it was a part of the ToR, the Commissions considered it a mandate to utilize population data of that
Census year implying use of dated information. This was an unnecessary intervention and may have led to an
undue distortion in the methodology adopted and the outcome of FC recommendations. It should be considered a
welcome step that no such constraint has been placed on FC16.
2. Examining the status of fiscal imbalances: The erstwhile FCs were asked to review the state of government
finances of the central and state governments especially with respect to fiscal deficit and debt. This consideration
will nevertheless have to inform FC16’s deliberations in the context of determining tax devolution and grants.
Even if they focus on the revenue accounts of central and state governments, it is the substantive importance of
interest payments which is part of revenue expenditure that has a bearing on government borrowing both by the
central and the state governments. In fact, the dynamics of movement of interest payments is linked to the
dynamics of fiscal deficit and debt.
7
Final Report of the Fifteenth Finance Commission (2021). Para numbers 3.63 to 3.65; Srivastava, D. K. (2023). Evolving Contours of Centre-
State Fiscal Relations: Inconsistencies, Ad-Hocism and Centralization (No. 2023-239); Sharma, Chanchal Kumar, and Wilfried Swenden (2022).
"The dynamics of federal (in) stability and negotiated cooperation under single-party dominance: insights from Modi’s India." Contemporary South
Asia 30.4: 601-618; Srivastava, Dinesh Kumar (2022). Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in India: Time for the Next Generation of Reforms.
Madras School of Economics, Working Paper 222.
3. Inclusion of incentives: FCs were often asked to consider providing incentives in their scheme of tax devolution
and grants to promote multiple objectives including center’s flagship schemes, progress towards sustainable
development goals (SDGs), progress made in increasing tax/non-tax revenues, structural reform programs etc.
Similarly, efforts and progress made in moving towards replacement rate of population growth were to be
considered in devising the scheme of fiscal transfers for FC15. In their ToR, reference was also made to provision
of grants in aid to local bodies for basic services, including quality human resources, and implementation of
performance grant system in improving delivery of services. In the case of FC13 and FC14, there was a reference
made to the ‘need to balance management of ecology, environment and climate change consistent with
sustainable economic development’. FC16 would be free to devise its own approach and consider introduction of
incentives or compensation as needed with reference to tax effort, fiscal discipline, environmental externalities
etc.
Thus, as long as Article 280 (4) remains a part of the Constitution, any fiscal matter may be considered by the FC in
the interests of sound finance.
Status of data availability
The latest population data that would be available to FC16 based on Census is 2011. The 2021 Census has not been
conducted. Thus, for the reference period of FC16, if the Commission decides to use population data based on the
2011 Census, it would be dated by 15 to 20 years considering the first and the terminal years of the
recommendation period of FC16 namely, FY27 and FY31. The latest GSDP data currently available from the NSO
pertains to FY22 for all states and FY23 for a selected list of states. Assuming that the FC16 uses data for three
years, it may imply utilizing GSDP data pertaining to FY21, FY22, and FY23. The FY21 GDP/GSDP data would contain
the deleterious effects of COVID-19 and the FY22 data would reflect its base effects. FY23 would be the first year
where, by and large, the GDP/GSDP data would have normalized.
5.3 Resolving vertical, horizontal, and fiscal imbalances

The subject of distribution of GoI’s taxes and determination of grants would require consideration of three types of
imbalances in the system. The issue of vertical imbalance arises because the Constitution has given relatively larger
tax resources to the central government as compared to the states in the interest of efficiency. The levy of taxes at
the central level ensures uniform definitions, tax rates, exemptions, provisions etc. throughout the country. This
provides a built-in harmonization across states. Transfer of central tax revenues which may be assessed to be in
excess of its own needs to the state governments who may have tax resources that are less than their needs, brings
the system into balance. The assessment of availability of resources vis-à-vis responsibilities for the central
government and state governments considered together is the subject of vertical distribution of resources. Here, the
attempt is to move from a situation of imbalance to that of balance.
The second dimension in the context of distribution of resources is the horizontal dimension. This is where the
Commission needs to take into account the differential initial conditions as well as the differential current economic
and fiscal conditions which characterize the economies and finances of the state governments. Here again, the effort
of the Commission is to move from a situation of imbalance to relative balance. The third dimension pertains to fiscal
imbalance. Both, central and state governments borrow in order to fill up part of the resource gap which is not met
by the availability of resources after transfers. But borrowing leads to an expenditure liability in the form of interest
payments as discussed earlier. In fact, all the three imbalances are interlinked. We review below, the current status of
the three dimensions of imbalances.
State of vertical imbalance
Chart 7 shows that the combined tax-GDP ratio has broadly ranged between 16-18% from FY06 onwards. Center’s
tax-GDP ratio sharply fell during FY08 to FY10 and again during FY18 to FY20. In both instances, the fall was of
nearly 2% points. This reflected itself in the combined tax-GDP ratio also.

Chart 7: Tax-GDP ratio (%): center, states and combined
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Center's GTR States OTR Combined tax
Source (basic data): IPFS, Union budget documents and RBI – State finances
Note: state data includes all states and UTs with legislature
The sharing of central taxes with the states resulted in a movement of convergence during FY01 to FY08. In this
period, the gap between center’s net tax revenue relative to GDP and states’ tax revenue post transfers relative to
GDP was progressively reduced and the two became effectively equal in FY08 (Chart 8). These years were covered
largely by the recommendations of FC11 and FC12. After FY10, the gap between the two started to increase,
reaching a peak of 3.5% points in FY19. Thus, in resolving the vertical imbalance, the movement towards bringing
post devolution convergence in the access to tax resources of the system to the central and the state governments
was reversed, and states’ post devolution tax-GDP ratio started to exceed that of the center. This change resulted in
the squeezing of fiscal space for the center as discussed subsequently.
Chart 8: Post devolution tax-GDP ratio (%): center and states
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
3.5
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
difference Center's net tax revenue Post devolution states' tax revenue
Table 4 shows the relative shares of center and states after fiscal transfers in the combined revenue receipts of
center and states. All the relevant series are shown as percentage of GDP. The combined revenue receipts relative to
GDP have been relatively static, generally moving in the range of 18-20% especially FY05 onwards. After fiscal
transfers through tax devolution and grants, it is notable that the share of states has progressively increased.
Comparing FC period averages, the share of states in the combined revenue receipts after transfers has increased.
This ratio was at 10.8% in FC11, 12.1% in FC12, 12.4% in FC13, and 13.6% in FC14.

Table 4: Pre-and post-transfer status of revenue receipts of central and state governments (as % of GDP)
Fiscal Year Pre-transfer RR Post transfer RR Combined RR
Centre States Centre States
FY01 10.2 6.2 6.0 10.4 16.4
FY02 9.8 6.6 5.7 10.7 16.4
FY03 10.4 6.6 6.4 10.6 17.0
FY04 10.9 6.9 6.7 11.1 17.8
FY05 11.4 7.1 7.2 11.3 18.4
FY06 11.9 7.3 7.2 12.0 19.2
FY07 12.8 7.7 7.8 12.7 20.5
FY08 13.9 6.7 8.5 12.0 20.6
FY09 12.5 6.6 7.3 11.8 19.1
FY10 11.4 7.1 6.5 12.0 18.5
FY11 13.1 7.2 8.1 12.2 20.3
FY12 11.5 7.4 6.5 12.4 18.9
FY13 11.6 7.8 6.9 12.5 19.4
FY14 11.8 7.5 7.2 12.1 19.3
FY15 11.4 7.1 6.0 12.5 18.5
FY16 12.3 7.6 6.3 13.5 19.8
FY17 12.9 7.0 6.4 13.5 19.9
FY18 12.3 7.7 5.9 14.0 20.0
FY19 12.2 7.6 5.9 13.9 19.8
FY20 11.6 7.4 5.9 13.1 18.9
FY21 11.2 6.8 4.5 13.5 18.0
FY22 13.1 7.3 5.8 14.6 20.4
11th FC 10.5 6.7 6.4 10.8 17.2
12th FC 12.5 7.1 7.5 12.1 19.5
13th FC 11.9 7.4 6.9 12.4 19.3
14th FC 12.3 7.4 6.1 13.6 19.7
15th FC (2 years) 12.1 7.1 5.2 14.1 19.2
The increasing share of states in the combined revenue receipts is reflected in the falling share of the center in all the
three expenditure categories namely, revenue, total and primary expenditures. The combined total expenditure of
center and states relative to GDP has been relatively static, broadly in the range of 26-28% (Table 5). Its peak values
are noted in those years when the combined fiscal deficit relative to GDP has been the highest. The change in the
fiscal deficit relates to policy responses to cyclical challenges and can be considered as temporary. Considering
Commission period averages, combined total expenditure relative to GDP has ranged from 26.2% to 26.7% during
FC11 to FC14. This narrow range indicates its static nature. Its allocation in terms of primary expenditure however
shows a clear movement in favor of the states and against the center. Excluding the two recent years of FY21 and
FY22, center’s primary expenditure to GDP ratio has fallen from 9.7% in FY12 to 7.8% in FY20, less than 50% of
states’ primary expenditure relative to GDP. This also implies a lowering of center’s share in the combined primary
expenditure. This basically indicates squeezing of fiscal space of the center post fiscal transfers.

Table 5: Post transfer status of total, revenue, and primary expenditure of central and state governments (as %
of GDP)
Fiscal year Revenue expenditure Total expenditure Primary expenditure
Center States Combined Center States Combined Center States Combined
FY01 11.2 11.5 22.7 12.5 13.1 25.5 9.1 10.7 19.8
FY02 11.2 12.0 23.2 12.7 13.5 26.2 9.3 10.9 20.1
FY03 11.9 11.6 23.5 13.1 13.3 26.4 9.5 10.7 20.2
FY04 11.3 12.2 23.4 12.4 14.4 26.8 9.0 11.5 20.5
FY05 10.3 11.6 22.0 12.0 13.9 25.9 8.8 11.1 19.9
FY06 10.1 11.6 21.7 11.7 14.0 25.8 8.4 11.6 20.1
FY07 10.0 11.7 21.6 11.4 14.3 25.7 8.2 12.0 20.2
FY08 9.9 10.7 20.6 12.2 13.3 25.4 9.0 11.3 20.3
FY09 12.1 11.3 23.4 13.5 13.9 27.4 10.3 12.1 22.4
FY10 12.0 12.2 24.2 13.7 14.8 28.5 10.5 13.0 23.5
FY11 11.5 11.9 23.4 13.5 14.1 27.6 10.6 12.5 23.0
FY12 11.1 12.0 23.1 12.7 14.3 27.0 9.7 12.7 22.4
FY13 10.7 12.2 22.8 12.2 14.4 26.6 9.1 12.9 22.0
FY14 10.4 12.1 22.5 12.0 14.3 26.3 8.7 12.8 21.5
FY15 9.0 12.7 21.7 10.5 15.0 25.5 7.4 13.5 20.8
FY16 8.9 13.5 22.4 10.9 16.5 27.4 7.8 15.0 22.7
FY17 8.5 13.5 22.0 10.3 16.8 27.2 7.3 15.2 22.5
FY18 8.6 13.4 22.0 10.1 15.9 26.0 7.0 14.2 21.2
FY19 8.3 13.7 22.0 9.9 16.2 26.1 6.9 14.5 21.4
FY20 9.2 13.6 22.8 10.8 15.9 26.7 7.8 14.1 22.0
FY21 11.9 14.2 26.1 13.4 16.4 29.7 10.0 14.7 24.6
FY22 10.2 14.1 24.3 11.9 16.6 28.5 8.5 14.8 23.2
11th FC 11.2 11.8 22.9 12.5 13.6 26.2 9.0 11.2 20.2
12th FC 10.8 11.5 22.3 12.5 14.1 26.6 9.7 12.2 21.9
13th FC 10.5 12.2 22.7 12.2 14.4 26.6 8.5 13.4 21.9
14th FC 8.7 13.5 22.3 10.4 16.3 26.7 7.8 14.5 22.3
15th FC (2 years) 11.0 14.2 25.2 12.6 16.5 29.1 8.6 14.2 22.8
Government finances had experienced growing fiscal imbalances on the combined account of central and state
governments and on their individual accounts up to FY04. In that year, center’s FRBM was enacted and in and around
this year, state Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs) were also enacted. As a result, the debt-GDP ratios started to
fall and alongside, the interest payment to GDP ratios also fell. From a peak of 6.3% in FY04, the combined interest
payment to GDP ratio fell to a level of 4.6% in FY11 and it had broadly remained at this level until FY20 after which it
has picked up again primarily due to the COVID shock which forced the governments to increase their fiscal deficit
and debt as a stabilization measure. The phase from FY11 to FY20 can be considered as the ‘positive impact phase’
or the ‘fiscal stabilization phase’ which resulted from the enactment of FRLs (Chart 9).

Chart 9: Interest payment to GDP ratio: center, states and combined government (%)
7.0
Fiscal stabilization COVID
6.0 shock 5.2
phase
5.0
4.0 3.4
3.0 Fiscal imprudence
phase 1.8
2.0
1.0
0.0
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
Centre States Combined
State of fiscal imbalance

The combined government debt to GDP ratio had reached a peak of 85.5% in FY04. This was the outcome of keeping
a high fiscal deficit relative to GDP in the range of 8.8% to 11% over the period FY01 to FY04. This was proving to be
counterproductive since the interest payment to GDP ratio was also increasing and fiscal imbalances appeared to be
unsustainable. Enactment of center’s and states’ FRLs led to an improvement in the profile of fiscal imbalances of the
central and state governments. The combined debt-GDP ratio steadily fell, reaching a trough of 67.8% in FY15. The
target for the combined debt-GDP ratio of 56% set by FC12 and 60% set by the 2018 Center’s FRBMA amendment
was never reached (Table 6). An upward trend in the combined debt-GDP ratio began after FY15. In the
recommendation period of FC14 which was from FY16 to FY20, center’s debt-GDP ratio witnessed a steady rise from
46.1% to 49.2%. These years witnessed a fall in center’s share in the divisible pool of taxes from 68% to 58%. There
was also a fall in the combined tax-GDP ratio in FY19 and FY20 as shown earlier in Chart 7.
Table 6: Fiscal imbalance of center and all states as % of GDP
Fiscal Year Fiscal deficit Primary deficit Debt
Centre States Combined Centre States Combined Centre States Combined
FY01 4.8 4.0 8.8 1.5 1.6 3.1 46.6 27.8 74.4
FY02 6.8 4.2 11.0 3.4 1.5 4.9 49.9 29.8 79.7
FY03 6.1 3.8 9.9 2.6 1.2 3.8 52.4 31.6 84.0
FY04 6.3 4.2 10.5 2.9 1.3 4.2 53.1 32.3 85.5
FY05 6.3 3.5 9.7 3.0 0.7 3.7 52.8 31.8 84.6
FY06 4.3 3.7 7.9 1.0 1.3 2.3 50.6 31.6 82.2
FY07 5.4 2.2 7.6 2.1 0.0 2.1 48.5 29.2 77.7
FY08 6.0 1.8 7.8 2.9 -0.2 2.7 48.2 27.1 75.3
FY09 6.6 2.6 9.2 3.4 0.8 4.2 49.4 26.7 76.1
FY10 5.1 2.8 7.9 1.9 1.0 2.9 47.9 25.9 73.8
FY11 4.9 2.4 7.3 2.0 0.7 2.7 44.8 24.0 68.8
FY12 7.1 1.9 9.0 4.1 0.3 4.4 46.2 22.8 69.1
FY13 5.6 2.2 7.7 2.5 0.6 3.1 46.2 22.2 68.4
FY14 5.6 2.3 7.9 2.4 0.8 3.2 46.5 22.0 68.5
FY15 4.2 1.9 6.1 1.1 0.3 1.4 46.1 21.7 67.8
FY16 4.8 3.4 8.2 1.6 1.8 3.5 46.5 23.0 69.6
FY17 3.5 4.1 7.7 0.5 2.5 3.0 45.2 24.7 69.9
FY18 4.9 2.8 7.7 1.9 1.1 3.0 45.6 25.1 70.7
FY19 4.7 2.6 7.3 1.6 0.9 2.5 45.9 25.3 71.2
FY20 6.1 2.8 8.9 3.1 1.1 4.1 49.2 26.6 75.8
FY21 8.9 4.1 12.9 5.5 2.3 7.8 58.7 31.0 89.8
FY22 5.5 3.1 8.5 2.1 1.3 3.3 55.1 29.3 84.4
Fiscal Year Fiscal deficit Primary deficit Debt
Centre States Combined Centre States Combined Centre States Combined
11th FC 6.1 3.9 10.0 2.7 1.3 3.9 52.8 31.8 84.6
12th FC 5.5 2.6 8.1 2.2 0.6 2.8 47.9 25.9 73.8
13th FC 5.5 2.1 7.6 2.4 0.5 2.9 46.1 21.7 67.8
14th FC 4.8 3.2 7.9 1.7 1.5 3.2 49.2 26.6 75.8
15th FC (2 years) 7.2 3.6 10.7 3.8 1.8 5.6 55.1 29.3 84.4
State of horizontal imbalance

Apart from resolving vertical and fiscal imbalances, the FC is also concerned with the resolution of horizontal
imbalance that is imbalance in the fiscal and economic situation of the states which impacts the standards of publicly
provided public and merit services across states. One of the objectives of the exercise of fiscal transfers is to ensure
efficiency in the system by ensuring that population migrates across states for contributing to overall productivity of
the economy and not for accessing higher standards of services across states or better state-level programs of
poverty alleviation and/or income transfers etc. This requires equalizing fiscal capacities of the states as long as the
state makes the same tax effort to convert the equalized fiscal capacity to tax revenues. Fiscal capacity differs across
states because of differential initial endowments (area, size of population, nature of terrain, access to ports and
coastal areas, etc.) and economic growth. The per capita real GSDP across the states in India differ widely.
For analytical purposes, states in India are divided into two broad groups namely medium and large states (ML group)
and small and hilly states (SH group). Table 7 shows per capita real GSDP of these states and these two groups. For
the ML group, the ratio of highest to lowest per capita real GSDP has been increasing over time. This is the outcome
of the lower CAGR of per capita real GSDP of those states which started with a relatively low per capita GSDP. This
indicates that divergence in per capita real GSDP and therefore per capita fiscal capacity across states has been
increasing over time. If the objective is to equalize standards of services through equalization of fiscal capacity, then
the equalization content of fiscal transfers would need to increase over time. Similar patterns are noted for the SH
group. The average per capita real GSDP of the SH group has ranged between 1.2 to 1.3 times that of the ML group.
Table 7: State-wise per capita real GSDP: FY11 to FY22
Fiscal year Per capita real GSDP (INR, period average) CAGR (FY11 to
FY11-FY13 FY14-FY17 FY18-FY20 FY21-FY22 FY22) in %
ML group
GJ 1,09,707 1,39,419 1,76,325 1,87,027 6.8
HR 1,24,130 1,52,801 1,84,186 1,84,491 5.2
KA 1,04,719 1,30,815 1,65,330 1,74,809 6.4
TN 1,09,443 1,29,814 1,57,683 1,69,366 5.4
TS 1,03,519 1,24,591 1,60,933 1,69,258 5.9
MH 1,19,140 1,41,096 1,60,260 1,56,073 3.7
KL 1,14,310 1,32,362 1,56,678 1,54,446 4.1
PB 99,635 1,12,563 1,29,033 1,32,915 3.6
AP 78,482 97,982 1,21,467 1,28,450 5.8
OR 57,893 68,487 85,091 89,912 5.6
RJ 65,362 76,528 84,485 88,373 3.9
CH 64,410 71,507 83,058 87,144 3.9
WB 58,268 64,081 75,366 76,362 3.5
AS 46,567 56,188 67,521 72,035 5.0
MP 46,111 54,179 65,525 67,647 5.1
JH 47,249 52,012 60,193 60,081 3.3
UP 37,186 42,816 48,975 49,314 3.6
BH 24,155 26,645 31,518 31,176 3.2
ML group avg. 71,270 84,145 99,964 1,02,516 4.6
Fiscal year Per capita real GSDP (INR, period average) CAGR (FY11 to
FY11-FY13 FY14-FY17 FY18-FY20 FY21-FY22 FY22) in %
Ratio of highest to 5.1 5.7 5.8 6.0
--
lowest (HR to BH) (HR to BH) (HR to BH) (GJ to BH)
SH group
GA 2,48,276 3,04,215 3,48,347 3,48,818 2.1
SK 1,86,322 2,22,998 2,81,555 2,97,709 5.3
HP 1,11,498 1,34,453 1,58,856 1,64,964 4.9
UK 1,20,741 1,43,765 1,67,366 1,63,105 4.0
MZ 70,640 1,03,846 1,36,879 1,43,614 8.8
AR 82,244 99,894 1,14,413 1,24,744 4.9
TR 56,121 72,876 90,508 93,204 6.4
JK 63,838 70,963 83,767 88,319 4.1
NL 64,308 71,737 80,549 81,802 3.1
ML 66,245 63,678 68,035 71,171 0.9
MN 45,108 51,474 55,653 54,283 2.5
SH group avg. 90,205 1,05,994 1,23,907 1,26,433 4.1
Ratio of highest to 5.5 (GA to 5.9 (GA to 6.3 (GA to 6.4 (GA to
--
lowest MN) MN) MN) MN)
Ratio of SH to ML group
1.27 1.26 1.24 1.23 --
averages
All India 72,080 85,127 1,01,050 1,03,567 5.8
Source (basic data): MoSPI, GoI
Table 8 gives the differential population size of states in terms of the share of a state in all-state population. Apart
from 2011 Census data, we have also given average shares for the period FY20 to FY22 sourced from MoSPI.
According to the 2011 Census, nearly 17% of the all-state population resides in UP followed by 9.4% in Maharashtra.
At the lower end, the smallest population size state among the ML group is Haryana. The total population of the SH
group of states is 3.8% of the all-state population whereas its share in all-state GSDP at constant prices is 4.6% for
the period FY20 to FY22. Comparing population shares based on 2011 Census data with those based on FY20-FY22
data shows that the population share has increased for UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Punjab,
Chhattisgarh and Haryana among the ML states and Uttarakhand, Meghalaya and Manipur among the SH states. The
larger population share states also tend to have lower per capita real GSDP.
Table 8: State-wise shares in total, SC and ST population (%)
State’s share in all-India population (%) Share of SC population in Share of ST population in all-
State all-India SC population (%) India ST population (%)
FY20-FY22 (avg.) 2011 census 2011 census 2011 census
ML states
UP 17.337 16.785 20.871 1.091
MH 9.295 9.440 6.700 10.106
BH 9.176 8.745 8.361 1.285
WB 7.339 7.667 10.831 5.093
MP 6.302 6.101 5.724 14.728
TN 5.718 6.061 7.286 0.764
RJ 5.913 5.758 6.168 8.883
KA 4.996 5.132 5.286 4.086
GJ 5.184 5.077 2.056 8.574
AP 3.896 4.149 4.274 2.530
OR 3.416 3.526 3.628 9.222
TS 2.819 2.956 2.730 3.161
KL 2.626 2.806 1.534 0.466

State’s share in all-India population (%) Share of SC population in Share of ST population in all-
State all-India SC population (%) India ST population (%)
FY20-FY22 (avg.) 2011 census 2011 census 2011 census
JH 2.868 2.771 2.011 8.313
AS 2.617 2.621 1.126 3.735
PB 2.357 2.330 4.471 --
CH 2.199 2.146 1.652 7.522
HR 2.176 2.130 2.581 0.000
ML Total 96.235 96.177 97.290 89.560
SH states
JK 1.002 1.053 0.467 1.436
UK 0.851 0.847 0.955 0.281
HP 0.553 0.577 0.873 0.377
TR 0.304 0.309 0.331 1.122
ML 0.255 0.249 0.009 2.458
MN 0.264 0.216 0.049 0.868
NL 0.164 0.166 -- 1.645
GA 0.117 0.123 0.013 0.144
AR 0.114 0.116 -- 0.915
MZ 0.091 0.092 0.001 0.996
SK 0.051 0.051 0.014 0.198
SH Total 3.765 3.800 2.710 10.440
Source (basic data): MoSPI and Census 2011
Another important initial condition that has a bearing on cost of providing services is the area of a state and the
nature of its terrain. States with a relatively larger share of hilly area relative to its total area are required to incur
higher per capita expenditures to reach beneficiary population which may be residing in hilly and sometimes difficult
range areas. Usually, their habitations are also characterized by low population density. Other terrain related
parameters which may have a bearing on cost or externalities relate to forest area, coastal wetland area, length of
coastline and area covered by snow and glaciers. While the importance of hilly and forest areas has been recognized
by some of the FCs, there may be a case for recognizing some of the other relevant parameters listed in Table 9. The
erstwhile group of special category states largely included states with a high share of hilly area in their total area.
Table 9 highlights the large differences in the total area of states. Within the ML group, the ratio of largest to
smallest state in terms of area is 8.8. The corresponding ratio with respect to the SH group is 22.6. Some of the
states which have a high share of coastal wetland include Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Tamil
Nadu. A high share of area covered by snow and glaciers characterize Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh,
Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Designing a suitable scheme of horizontal distribution of resources would call for
consideration of these parameters which may requires a state to incur higher unit costs in providing services.
Table 9: State-wise shares in area related parameters (%)

State’s share in all-state aggregate
State Total area Hilly area Forest area Coastal wetland Coastline Snow and glacier
area
ML states
RJ 10.4 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
MP 9.4 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
MH 9.4 10.0 7.3 10.4 10.8 0.0
UP 7.4 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
GJ 6.0 0.0 1.4 60.0 28.5 0.0
KA 5.9 6.9 6.4 0.2 4.6 0.0
AP 4.9 0.0 4.0 8.1 15.0 0.0
OD 4.8 0.0 7.0 12.6 8.0 0.0
CH 4.1 0.0 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
TN 4.0 3.3 3.7 6.7 14.5 0.0
TS 3.5 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
State’s share in all-state aggregate
State Total area Hilly area Forest area Coastal wetland Coastline Snow and glacier
area
BH 2.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
WB 2.7 0.4 1.8 0.9 7.8 0.0
JH 2.4 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
AS 2.4 2.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
PB 1.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
HR 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
KL 1.2 4.2 2.9 1.0 8.7 0.0
ML total 84.2 27.5 67.5 99.8 98.0 0.0
8.8 70.6 85.6 266.5 3.6
Max/Min NA
(RJ to KL) (MH to WB) (MP to HR) (GJ to KA) (GJ to KA)
SH states
JK 6.8 31.7 3.1 0.0 0.0 72.4
AR 2.6 12.0 12.9 0.0 0.0 10.0
HP 1.7 7.9 2.6 0.0 0.0 8.6
UK 1.6 6.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 7.1
ML 0.7 3.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
MN 0.7 3.2 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
MZ 0.6 3.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
NL 0.5 2.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
TR 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
SK 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.9
GA 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.0 0.0
SH total 15.8 72.5 32.5 0.2 2.0 100.0
22.6 11.8 46.1 5.3
Max/Min NA NA
(JK to GA) (JK to SK) (AR to GA) (JK to SK)
ML/SH 5.3 0.4 2.1 486.8 47.9 NA
Source: Census (2011), Forest Survey of India (2021), Environmental Statistics 2023 (MoSPI, GoI), PIB
Note: The base data for area related parameters are measured in terms of sq kms. Coastline is measured in terms of kms. Total area and hilly area data are taken from FC15 report. Data for forest
area pertains to the year 2021. Coastal wetland and snow and glacier area pertain to the year 2015-16. Coastline data is based on PIB release dated 21 December 2022.
Conclusions
The FC16 has a formidable task at hand. During the course of past few years, imbalances have increased in all the
relevant dimensions. In the context of vertical imbalance, GoI’s fiscal space was squeezed by the sudden and sharp
increase in states’ share in central taxes by FC14. The GoI has attempted to rely relatively more on cesses and
surcharges as also on relatively higher borrowing in order to regain its lost fiscal space measured in terms of its fallen
share in the combined primary expenditure of central and state governments. At the state level, the difference in the
per capita GSDP of states measured in real terms has also increased. There is no evidence of a reduction in the gap
between per capita GSDPs of the relatively high- and low-income states although there have been notable changes in
the ranking of states over time. In the context of fiscal imbalance also, both the central and state governments have
debt and deficit magnitudes relative to GDP that are well above the FRBM norms. The FRBM norms may themselves
require reconsideration. As the FC16 starts with a clean slate as it were, with no instructions from the GoI other than
the Constitutional provisions, it can develop a fresh and new methodology which can put the finances of the central,
state and local governments towards equity, efficiency, stability and sustainability. There has to be a well-integrated
system of management of government finances covering central, state and local governments which ensures
providing important public and merit services at equitable standards across the country. In this endeavor, local
governments would also have to play a significant role. While ensuring equality in the provision of services, it is also
important to bring fiscal imbalances measured in terms of government debt and fiscal deficits to sustainable levels.

Home
6 Money and finance: the RBI retained the repo rate at 6.5% in
December 2023
6.1 Monetary sector
Monetary policy
► The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) retained the repo rate for the fifth successive time at 6.5% in its monetary
policy review held in December 2023 (Chart 10). Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) and marginal
standing facility (MSF) rates were retained at 6.25% and 6.75% respectively. Further, the MPC also maintained
the policy stance as ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ as CPI inflation is yet to align with its target of 4%.
► In RBI’s assessment, the headline inflation may show upward movement in the near term on account of
uncertainties in food prices, particularly that of vegetables, coupled with unfavorable base effects. In addition,
the RBI expressed caution regarding the impact of El Nino weather conditions on domestic food inflation.
However, adequate buffer stocks for cereals, pro-active supply side measures by the government and a sharp
moderation in international food prices may limit the impact of these pressures on food prices.
Chart 10: Movements in the repo rate and 10-year government bond yield
3.5 7.27 8.0
3.0 The monetary
7.0
2.5 6.5 6.0 policy committee
2.0 5.0 retained the repo
1.5
1.0 0.77 4.0 rate for the fifth
0.5 3.0 successive time at
0.0 2.0 6.5% in its
Dec-20
Mar-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Dec-23
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
December 2023
monetary policy
review.
spread (% points, LHS) Repo rate (%, RHS) 10-year government bond yield (%, RHS)
Source: Database on Indian Economy, RBI
Money stock
► Growth in broad money stock (M3) increased to 11.8% in November 2023, its highest level since March 2021.
Time deposits, the largest component of M3, continued to show a robust growth of 13.2% in November 2023 as
compared to 13.1% in October 2023.
► Growth in M1 improved to 7.9% in November 2023 from 6.4% in October 2023 due to higher growth in both
demand deposits and currency with the public. Growth in demand deposits increased to a 10-month high of
11.7% in November 2023 while growth in currency with the public increased to 5.2% in November 2023 following
a low growth of 3.7% in October 2023.
Aggregate credit and deposits Chart 11: Growth in credit and deposits
Gross bank credit continued to show a robust growth 18
►
16 15.2
of 15.2% in October 2023, close to its level of 15.3% 14
in September 2023 (Chart 11). 12 13.4
10
► Growth momentum in non-food credit also remained 8
strong and stable at 15.3% in October 2023, similar 6
to its level in September 2023. 4
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
► Sectoral bank credit data indicate that credit to

services, with an average share of about 27% in total
non-food credit (last five years), showed the highest Aggregate deposits (% ann) Bank credit (% ann)
growth of 20.1% in October 2023, although easing Source: Database on Indian Economy, RBI
marginally from 21.3% in September 2023.
► Growth in credit to the agricultural sector increased to a four-month high of 17.5% in October 2023 from 16.8%
in September 2023.
► Personal loans, a key component of retail loans with a share of close to 29% on average in total non-food credit
(last five years), continued to post a double-digit growth of 18.0% in October 2023 but was marginally lower as
compared to 18.2% in September 2023.
► Outstanding credit to industries, with a share of close to 29% on average in total non-food credit (last five years),
grew by 5.4% in October 2023, moderating from 6.5% in September 2023. Within the industrial sector, growth in
credit to iron and steel remained the highest at 17.1% in October 2023 followed by cement at 15.1%, textiles at
12.5% and drugs and pharmaceuticals at 10.5%.
► Growth in credit to infrastructure, having the largest share of over 37% on average in total industrial credit (last
five years), fell to 1.0%, its lowest since March 2023. Growth in credit to infrastructure continues to remain
subdued, averaging 1.8% since December 2022.
► Growth in aggregate deposits of residents was at 13.4% in October 2023, increasing marginally from 13.2% in
September 2023.
6.2 Financial sector
Interest rates
► As per the data released by the RBI in the first week of December 2023, the average interest rate on term
deposits with a maturity period of more than one year was lowered to 6.63% in November 2023 from 6.81% in
October 2023. The actual rate ranged between 6.00% and 7.25%.
► The MCLR averaged 8.23% in November 2023, ranging between 7.95% and 8.50% and was marginally higher as
compared to 8.20% in October 2023.
► The average yield on 10-year government bonds eased to 7.27% in November 2023 from 7.35% in October 2023
(Chart 10). During the first eight months of FY24, benchmark bond yields averaged 7.17% as compared to 7.35%
during the corresponding period of FY23.
► WALR on fresh rupee loans by SCBs increased to 9.5% in October 2023, its highest level since October 2019.
FDI and FPI
► As per the provisional data released by the RBI on 20 December 2023, overall foreign investments 8 (FIs) turned
positive registering inflows amounting to US$3.9 billion in October 2023 as compared to outflows amounting to
US$0.6 billion in September 2023.
Chart 12: Net FDI and FPI inflows (US$ billion)
10
5.9
5
Net FDI inflows surged
0 to US$5.9 billion in
-2.0 October 2023 from
-5
US$1.5 billion in
-10 September 2023.
Oct-21
Dec-21
Oct-22
Dec-22
Oct-23
Apr-22
Aug-22
Apr-23
Aug-23
Feb-22
Jun-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
Net FPI Net FDI

Source: Database on Indian Economy, RBI
► Net FDI inflows increased to US$5.9 billion in October 2023, its highest level since January 2022 (Chart 12).
During April-October FY24, net FDI inflows were significantly lower at US$10.4 billion as compared to US$20.8
billion during the corresponding period of FY23.
► Gross FDI inflows surged to US$8.4 billion in October 2023, its highest level since April 2022. On a cumulated
basis, gross FDI inflows amounted to US$41.5 billion during April-October FY24 as compared to US$44.5 billion
during April-October FY23.
► Net FPIs remained negative for the second successive month, registering outflows amounting to US$2.0 billion in
October 2023 as compared to outflows of US$2.1 billion during September 2023. During April-October FY24, on
a cumulated basis, net FPI inflows amounted to US$18.3 billion as compared to net outflows of US$7.5 billion
during the corresponding period of FY23.
8
Foreign Investment (FI) = net FDI plus net FPI
Home
7 Trade and CAB: merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$20.6
billion in November 2023
7.1 CAB: current account deficit increased to 1.1% of GDP in 1QFY24 from 0.2% in 4QFY23
► Net merchandise trade deficit widened to 6.6% of GDP in 1QFY24 from 6.0% in 4QFY23 reflecting a fall in
merchandise exports to a nine-quarter low of 12.2% relative to GDP. Merchandise imports also eased to 18.8% in
1QFY24 from 19.3% in 4QFY23.
► Net invisibles were lower at 5.5% of GDP in 1QFY24 as compared to 5.9% in 4QFY23, as net service exports
moderated to 4.1% in 1QFY24 from 4.5% in 4QFY23. Net private transfers and net foreign income were at 2.7%
and (-)1.2% of GDP respectively in 1QFY24, marginally lower than their respective levels at 2.8% and (-)1.4% in
4QFY23.
Table 10: Components of CAB in US$ billion Chart 13: CAB
Fiscal CAB as % of CAB Goods Invisibles* 20 3.0
year nominal GDP account net net 10 1.5
-9.2
FY20 -0.9 -24.7 -157.5 132.8 0 0.0
FY21 0.9 23.9 -102.2 126.1 -10 -1.5
-20 -1.1 -3.0
FY22 -1.2 -38.8 -189.5 150.7
FY23 -2.0 -67.1 -265.3 198.2 -30 -4.5
-40 -6.0
2QFY23 -3.8 -30.9 -78.3 47.4
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
3QFY23 -2.0 -16.8 -71.3 54.5
4QFY23 -0.2 -1.4 -52.6 51.2
1QFY24 -1.1 -9.2 -56.6 47.4 CAB (US$ billion, LHS) CAB (% of GDP, RHS)
Source: Database on Indian Economy, RBI; Note: (-) deficit; (+) surplus; *invisibles include services, current transfers and income components
7.2 Merchandise trade and exchange rate
Merchandise exports and imports contracted by (-)2.8% and (-)4.3% in November 2023 respectively as
compared to a growth of 6.2% and 12.3% in October 2023, reflecting global slowdown and partly
unfavorable base effect (Chart 14).
► The contraction in merchandise exports was partly due to unfavorable base effect and led by a contraction in
engineering goods, oil exports, and chemicals at (-)3.1%, (-)7.4% and (-)11.4% respectively in November 2023.
Growth in electronic goods, and drugs and pharmaceuticals also slowed to 1.1% and 7.3% respectively in
November 2023 from 28.2% and 29.3% in October 2023.
► The contraction in imports was led by contraction in crude imports and pearls and precious stones by (-)8.5% and
(-)56.7% respectively in November 2023 as compared to a growth of 8.1% and a contraction of (-)9.8% in October
2023. Growth in gold imports moderated substantially to 6.2% from 95.4% over the same period.
Chart 14: Developments in merchandise trade
► Imports excluding oil, gold and jewelry showed zero
32 45
growth in November 2023. It had earlier turned
24
positive at 6.9% in October 2023 after showing a -4.3 30
16
contraction for four successive months. Exports of -2.8 15
8
this category contracted by (-)2.8% in November 0 0
2023 after showing a positive growth for three -8 -15
consecutive months. -16
-24 -30
► Merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$20.6 -20.6
billion in November 2023 from an unprecedented -32 -45
Oct-22
Dec-22
Oct-23
Aug-22
Nov-22
Mar-23
Nov-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
May-23
Aug-23
Feb-23
Jun-23
Sep-22
Jul-23
Sep-23
high of US$31.5 billion in October 2023 due to a

sharper pace of contraction in imports vis-à-vis
exports.
► The INR remained broadly stable at INR83.3 per Trade balance (US$ billion, LHS)
Exports (% ann, RHS)
US$ (avg.) in November 2023 as compared to
Imports (% ann, RHS)
INR83.2 per US$ (avg.) in October 2023.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GoI

Home
8 Global growth: OECD projected global growth at 2.9% in
2023 and 2.7% in 2024
8.1 Global growth

► The OECD (Economic Outlook, November 2023) has projected global growth to fall The OECD has
from 3.3% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and further to 2.7% in 2024, the lowest annual projected global
rate since the global financial crisis other than the first year of the pandemic. growth at 2.9% in
2023, with India’s
► A key downside risk to global outlook emanates from heightened geopolitical tensions
FY24 growth
that could result in significant disruptions to energy markets and major trade routes,
forecasted at 6.3%.
and additional risk repricing in financial markets, slowing growth and adding to
inflation.
► According to the OECD, a growing divergence across economies is expected to persist in the near term, with
growth in the EMEs generally holding up better than that in the AEs.
► Growth in the US is projected at 2.4% in 2023, easing to 1.5% in 2024 due to tighter monetary and financial
conditions, with slower job growth and a mild pick-up in unemployment (Chart 15).
► In OECD’s assessment, growth in the Euro area is projected to remain subdued at 0.6% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024
as it remains severely affected by the energy price shock in 2022 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Similarly, in
the UK, growth is forecasted to remain at low levels of 0.5% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024, with higher fiscal
pressure weighing on household disposable incomes.
► In Japan, where monetary policy has remained accommodative, growth is projected to increase to 1.7% in 2023
before moderating to 1% in 2024 as the positive contribution from net exports fades and macroeconomic policies
begin to be tightened.
► Growth in China is projected to have rebounded to 5.2% in 2023 but is expected to slow to 4.7% in 2024 as
consumption growth remains subdued and activity in the real estate sector continues to weaken. However,
monetary policy easing, and additional infrastructure investment is expected to help underpin domestic demand.
► GDP growth in India is projected to be strong at 6.3% in 2023 (FY24) and 6.1% in 2024 (FY25) driven by public
investment and surging services exports.
Chart 15: Global growth projections (%) Chart 16: Global crude and coal prices
9.0 350 120
7.0 300 104
6.3 5.2 81.4 88
5.0 3.0 2.9 250
3.0 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.5 200 72
1.0 6.1 4.7 1.8 2.7 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 150 117.9 56
-1.0 100 40
World
Japan
South Africa
India
Russia
UK
US
Euro area
China
Brazil
Oct-22
Mar-22
Dec-22
Oct-23
Mar-23
Apr-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Nov-23
Apr-23
May-23
Aug-23
Feb-22
Jun-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Jul-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Jul-23
Sep-23
2023 2024 Coal average price (US$/mt.) Crude oil (US$/bbl.) - RHS
Source (basic data): World Bank Pink Sheets, December 2023
Source: OECD Economic Outlook (November 2023)
*Data pertains to fiscal years FY24 and FY25 respectively
8.2 Global energy prices: global crude price fell to a four-month low of US$81.4/bbl. in
November 2023
► Average global crude price 9 moderated from US$89.1/bbl. in October 2023 to a four-month low of US$81.4/bbl.
in November 2023 owing to concerns regarding subdued demand and continued uncertainty about the depth and
duration of OPEC+ supply cuts 10 (Chart 16).
► Average global coal price 11 also eased from US$135.3/mt. in October 2023 to US$117.9/mt. in November
2023, its lowest level since May 2021.
9
Simple average of three spot prices, namely, Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and Dubai Fateh
10
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-climbs-mideast-tension-back-focus-2023-12-04/
11
Simple average of Australian and South African coal prices.
Home
9 Index of Aggregate Demand (IAD): grew by 9.2% in October
2023
9.1 Growth in IAD continued to remain strong at 9.2% in October 2023
► IAD 12 maintained a strong growth at 9.2% in October 2023, although lower as compared to 12.2% in September
2023 (Chart 17 and Table 11) due to softening of demand conditions in manufacturing and services.
► In particular, demand conditions in the manufacturing sector eased as reflected by the manufacturing PMI which
expanded at a slower pace of 55.5 in October 2023 as compared to 57.5 in September 2023.
► Despite remaining robust, the services sector also saw a moderation in demand conditions in October 2023. This
was evident in the slower expansion of PMI services at 58.4 in October 2023 as compared to 61.0 in the previous
month.
► Demand conditions in the agricultural sector, however, improved further as indicated by agricultural credit
offtake, which posted a strong growth of 17.3% (sa) 13 in October 2023.
Chart 17: Growth in IAD (y-o-y)

14.0
12.0
10.0
9.2
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Oct-22
Dec-22
Oct-23
Mar-23
Aug-22
Nov-22
Apr-23
May-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Sep-22
Source (Basic data): S&P - IHS Markit PMI, RBI and EY estimates Sep-23
Note: From this issue onwards, we will be using seasonally adjusted data for constructing the IAD.
Table 11: IAD
Month Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
IAD 158.1 158.1 164.1 164.8 164.7 167.7 166.8 167.7 165.6
Growth 11.3 10.0 10.2 9.4 8.8 11.6 9.4 12.2 9.2
(% y-o-y)
Growth in 15.1 15.7 16.8 16.1 19.7 16.8 16.5 16.8 17.3
agr. Credit
Mfg. PMI** 5.3 6.4 7.2 8.7 7.8 7.7 8.6 7.5 5.5
Ser. PMI** 9.4 7.8 12.0 11.2 8.5 12.3 10.1 11.0 8.4
**Values here indicate deviation from the benchmark value of 50. A positive value indicates expansion in demand while a negative value implies contraction in demand;
PMI for Mfg. and Serv. are seasonally adjusted.
Source (basic data): S&P Global, RBI and EY estimates.
12
EY has developed an Index of Aggregate Demand (IAD) to reflect the monthly combined demand conditions in the agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors. It
considers the movements in PMI for manufacturing and services, both measured in seasonally adjusted (sa) terms, tracing the demand conditions in these sectors.
Movements in the monthly agricultural credit off-take (sa) capture the demand conditions in theagricultural sector
13
We have constructed a seasonally adjusted series for agricultural credit using Census X-13 technique in E-views (version 12) and the growth of this SA agricultural
credit series is used in the IAD series.
Home
10 Capturing macro-fiscal trends: data appendix
Table A1: Industrial growth indicators (annual, quarterly, and monthly growth rates, y-o-y)
Fiscal year/ IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity Core IIP Fiscal year/ PMI mfg. PMI ser.
quarter/ quarter
month % change y-o-y /month
FY20 -0.8 1.6 -1.4 0.9 0.4 FY20 52.3 51.9
FY21 -8.5 -7.8 -9.6 -0.5 -6.4 FY21 50.2 41.7
FY22 11.4 12.2 11.7 8.0 10.4 FY22 54.0 52.3
FY23 5.2 5.8 4.6 8.9 7.7 FY23 55.6 57.3
3QFY23 2.8 7.6 1.4 7.9 4.9 3QFY23 56.3 56.7
4QFY23 4.5 6.9 3.9 6.0 7.0 4QFY23 55.7 58.1
1QFY24 4.8 6.4 5.1 1.3 6.0 1QFY24 57.9 60.6
2QFY24 7.6 11.5 6.5 11.1 10.1 2QFY24 57.9 61.1
Jul-23 6.2 10.7 5.3 8.0 8.5 Aug-23 58.6 60.1
Aug-23 10.3 12.3 9.3 15.3 12.5 Sep-23 57.5 61.0
Sep-23 6.2 11.5 4.9 9.9 9.2 Oct-23 55.5 58.4
Oct-23 11.7 13.1 10.4 20.4 12.1 Nov-23 56.0 56.9
Source: MoSPI, Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry and S&P Global
Table A2: Inflation indicators (annual, quarterly, and monthly growth rates, y-o-y)
Fiscal year/ CPI Food Fuel and Core CPI WPI Food Mfg. Fuel and Core WPI
quarter/ Price light Price products power
month Index Index
% change y-o-y % change y-o-y
FY20 4.8 6.7 1.3 3.8 1.7 6.9 0.3 -1.8 -0.4
FY21 6.2 7.7 2.7 5.5 1.3 4.0 2.8 -8.0 2.2
FY22 5.5 3.8 11.3 6.1 13.0 6.8 11.1 32.5 11.0
FY23 6.7 6.6 10.3 6.2 9.4 6.3 5.6 28.1 5.8
3QFY23 6.1 5.3 10.5 6.2 6.6 3.3 3.7 21.0 3.7
4QFY23 6.2 5.6 9.8 6.2 3.3 2.7 1.4 12.5 1.6
1QFY24 4.6 3.8 4.7 5.2 -2.9 -0.8 -2.7 -7.1 -2.0
2QFY24 6.4 9.3 2.6 4.8 -0.6 5.5 -2.1 -7.6 -1.9
Aug-23 6.8 9.9 4.3 4.9 -0.5 6.2 -2.3 -6.3 -2.1
Sep-23 5.0 6.6 -0.1 4.5 -0.1 1.9 -1.3 -3.3 -1.2
Oct-23 4.9 6.6 -0.4 4.3 -0.5 1.1 -1.1 -2.5 -1.0
Nov-23 5.6 8.7 -0.8 4.1 0.3 4.7 -0.6 -4.6 -0.4
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry and MoSPI
Note: The CPI for April and May 2020 has been imputed. Core CPI inflation is measured in different ways by different organizations/agencies. Here, it has been
calculated by excluding food, and fuel and light from the overall index

Table A3: Fiscal indicators (annual growth rates, cumulated monthly growth rates, y-o-y)
Fiscal year/month Gross tax Corporate Income tax Direct Indirect Fiscal deficit Revenue deficit
revenue tax taxes* taxes** % of GDP % of GDP
FY20 (CGA) -3.4 -16.1 4.0 -7.8 1.7 4.7 3.3
FY21 (CGA) 0.7 -17.9 -2.3 -10.7 12.7 9.2 7.3
FY22 (CGA) 33.8 55.7 43.5 49.6 20.1 6.7 4.4
FY23 (CGA) 12.7 16.0 20.0 17.9 7.2 6.4 3.9
FY24 (BE over FY 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 5.9 2.9
23 RE)
Cumulated growth (%, y-o-y) % of budgeted target
Mar-23 12.7 16.0 20.0 17.9 7.2 98.7$ 96.3$
Apr-23 -6.1 -32.0 7.8 -9.2 0.0 7.5 6.4
May-23 -1.6 -28.0 12.6 -4.0 1.6 11.8 5.2
Jun-23 3.3 -13.9 11.0 -1.0 9.0 25.3 21.1
Jul-23 2.8 -10.4 6.4 -1.1 7.8 33.9 34.7
Aug-23 16.5 15.1 35.7 26.6 7.8 36.0 32.7
Sep-23 16.3 20.2 31.1 25.4 6.5 39.3 26.6
Oct-23 14.0 17.4 31.1 24.1 3.5 45.0 32.2
Source: Monthly Accounts, Controller General of Accounts, Government of India, Union Budget documents
* Includes corporation tax and income tax
** Includes customs duty, excise duty, service tax, CGST, UTGST, IGST and GST compensation cess.
$
as a proportion of revised estimate
Fiscal year/month CGST UTGST IGST GST compensation cess Total GST (GoI)
INR crore
FY23 (RE) 7,24,000 - - 1,30,000 8,54,000
FY24 (BE) 8,11,600 - - 1,45,000 9,56,600
Monthly tax collection (INR crore)
Mar-23 61,131 923 8,590 10,227 80,871
Apr-23 80,902 308 -9,304 11,861 83,767
May-23 60,667 263 951 11,241 73,122
Jun-23 64,810 343 1,605 11,822 78,580
Jul-23 67,234 250 -2,396 11,392 76,480
Aug-23 62,720 306 6,250 11,430 80,706
Sep-23 61,731 199 1,686 11,385 75,001
Oct-23 70,510 1,122 -15,888 11,898 67,642
Source: Monthly Accounts, Controller General of Accounts, Government of India, Union Budget documents
Note: IGST revenues are subject to final settlement.

Table A4: Monetary and financial indicators (annual, quarterly, and monthly growth rates, y-o-y)
Fiscal year/ Repo Fiscal Bank Agg. Net Net Fiscal M1 M3 10-year FX
month rate year/ credit deposits FDI FPI year/ govt. reserves
(end of quarter/ quarter/ bond
period) month month yield
% % change y-o-y US$ billion % change y-o-y % US$ billion
Jan-23 6.25 FY20 9.5 9.9 43.0 1.4 FY20 11.2 8.9 6.83 475.6
Feb-23 6.50 FY21 6.0 11.0 44.0 36.1 FY21 16.2 12.2 6.05 579.3
Mar-23 6.50 FY22 6.7 9.7 38.6 -16.8 FY22 10.6 8.7 6.40 617.6
Apr-23 6.50 FY23 14.5 9.5 28.0 -5.2 FY23 6.8 9.0 7.35 578.4
May-23 6.50 3QFY23 15.8 9.4 2.0 4.6 3QFY23 7.6 8.7 7.37 562.9
Jun-23 6.50 4QFY23 15.6 10.1 6.4 -1.7 4QFY23 6.9 9.0 7.36 578.4
Jul-23 6.50 1QFY24 15.9 12.2 5.1 15.7 1QFY24 7.5 10.6 7.08 595.1
Aug-23 6.50 2QFY24 15.0 13.1 -0.5 4.5 2QFY24 7.3 10.8 7.16 586.9
Sep-23 6.50 Jul-23 14.7 12.9 0.7 4.3 Aug-23 6.0 10.8 7.19 594.9
Oct-23 6.50 Aug-23 14.9 13.2 -2.8 2.3 Sep-23 7.3 10.8 7.17 586.9
Nov-23 6.50 Sep-23 15.3 13.2 1.5 -2.1 Oct-23 6.4 11.4 7.35 586.1
Dec-23 6.50 Oct-23 15.2 13.4 5.9 -2.0 Nov-23 7.9 11.8 7.27 597.9
Source: Database on Indian Economy - RBI
Table A5: External trade and global growth

External trade indicators (annual, quarterly and monthly growth rates) Global growth (annual)
Fiscal Exports Imports Trade Ex. rate Crude Coal Calendar World Adv. Emer.
year/ balance (avg.) prices prices year GDP econ. econ.
quarter/ (avg.) (avg.)
month
% change y-o-y US$ INR/US$ US$/bbl. US$/mt % change y-o-y
billion
FY20 -5.1 -8.2 -157.4 70.9 58.5 70.4 2013 3.4 1.4 5.0
FY21 -7.0 -16.6 -101.4 74.2 43.8 67.2 2014 3.5 2.0 4.7
FY22 44.7 56.0 -191.0 74.5 78.4 164.8 2015 3.4 2.3 4.3
FY23 3.8 15.1 -267.9 80.4 92.7 283.4 2016 3.2 1.8 4.4
3QFY23 -5.5 3.7 -72.1 82.2 85.3 281.1 2017 3.8 2.5 4.8
4QFY23 -10.1 -6.7 -54.9 82.3 79.0 194.4 2018 3.6 2.3 4.6
1QFY24 -15.2 -12.8 -57.5 82.2 76.6 138.3 2019 2.8 1.7 3.6
2QFY24 -8.6 -12.5 -64.2 83.0 85.3 125.0 2020 -2.8 -4.2 -1.8
Aug-23 -6.8 -5.2 -24.2 82.8 84.7 125.1 2021 6.3 5.6 6.9
Sep-23 -2.6 -15.0 -19.4 83.0 92.2 131.2 2022 3.5 2.6 4.1
Oct-23 6.2 12.3 -31.5 83.2 89.1 135.3 2023 3.0 1.5 4.0
Nov-23 -2.8 -4.3 -20.6 83.3 81.4 117.9 2024 2.9 1.4 4.0
Source: Database on Indian Economy - RBI, Pink Sheet - World Bank and IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2023

Table A6: Macroeconomic aggregates (annual and quarterly real growth rates, % change y-o-y)
Fiscal year/quarter Output: major sectors IPD
inflation
GVA Agr. Ming. Mfg. Elec. Cons. Trans. Fin. Publ. GVA
FY20 (3rd RE) 3.9 6.2 -3.0 -3.0 2.3 1.6 6.0 6.8 6.6 3.0
FY21 (2nd RE) * -4.2 4.1 -8.6 2.9 -4.3 -5.7 -19.7 2.1 -7.6 3.3
FY22 (1st RE)* 8.8 3.5 7.1 11.1 9.9 14.8 13.8 4.7 9.7 8.3
FY23 (PE)$ 7.0 4.0 4.6 1.3 9.0 10.0 14.0 7.1 7.2 7.9
2QFY22 9.3 4.8 10.6 6.6 10.8 10.8 13.1 7.0 16.8 8.0
3QFY22 4.7 2.3 5.4 1.3 6.0 0.2 9.2 4.3 10.6 9.4
4QFY22 3.9 4.1 2.3 0.6 6.7 4.9 5.0 4.6 5.2 9.7
1QFY23 11.9 2.4 9.5 6.1 14.9 16.0 25.7 8.5 21.3 12.5
2QFY23 5.4 2.5 -0.1 -3.8 6.0 5.7 15.6 7.1 5.6 10.1
3QFY23 4.7 4.7 4.1 -1.4 8.2 8.3 9.6 5.7 2.0 6.0
4QFY23 6.5 5.5 4.3 4.5 6.9 10.4 9.1 7.1 3.1 4.0
1QFY24 7.8 3.5 5.8 4.7 2.9 7.9 9.2 12.2 7.9 0.2
2QFY24 7.4 1.2 10.0 13.9 10.1 13.3 4.3 6.0 7.6 1.5
Source: National Accounts Statistics, MoSPI

*
Growth numbers for FY21 and FY22 are based on NAS released by the MoSPI on 28 February 2023 and the subsequent data file released on 1 March 2023.
$
Growth numbers for FY23 are based on the provisional estimates released by MoSPI on 31 May 2023. 1QFY24 data was released on 31 August 2023.
Fiscal year/quarter Expenditure components IPD inflation
GDP PFCE GFCE GFCF EX IM GDP
FY20 (3rd RE) 3.9 5.2 3.9 1.1 -3.4 -0.8 2.4
FY21 (2nd RE) * -5.8 -5.2 -0.9 -7.3 -9.1 -13.7 4.7
FY22 (1st RE)* 9.1 11.2 6.6 14.6 29.3 21.8 8.5
FY23 (PE)$ 7.2 7.5 0.1 11.4 13.6 17.1 8.2
2QFY22 9.1 14.2 11.7 12.4 25.1 26.6 8.5
3QFY22 5.2 10.8 5.8 1.2 27.8 19.7 8.7
4QFY22 4.0 4.7 11.8 4.9 22.4 6.7 8.7
1QFY23 13.1 19.8 1.8 20.4 19.6 33.6 12.9
2QFY23 6.2 8.3 -4.1 9.6 12.2 23.1 10.3
3QFY23 4.5 2.2 -0.6 8.0 11.1 10.7 6.6
4QFY23 6.1 2.8 2.3 8.9 11.9 4.9 4.1
1QFY24 7.8 6.0 -0.7 8.0 -7.7 10.1 0.2
2QFY24 7.6 3.1 12.4 11.0 4.3 16.7 1.4
Source: National Accounts Statistics, MoSPI

*
Growth numbers for FY21 and FY22 are based on NAS released by the MoSPI on 28 February 2023 and the subsequent data file released on 1 March 2023. $Growth
numbers for FY23 are based on the provisional estimates released by MoSPI on 31 May 2023. 1QFY24 data was released on 31 August 2023.

Home
List of abbreviations
Sr. no. Abbreviations Description
1 AD aggregate demand
2 AEs advanced economies
3 Agr. agriculture, forestry and fishing
4 AY assessment year
5 Bcm billion cubic meters
6 bbl. barrel
7 BE budget estimate
8 CAB current account balance
9 CGA Comptroller General of Accounts
10 CGST Central Goods and Services Tax
11 CIT corporate income tax
12 Cons. construction
13 CPI Consumer Price Index
14 COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019
15 CPSE central public-sector enterprise
16 CRAR Credit to Risk- weighted Assets Ratio
17 Disc. discrepancies
18 ECBs external commercial borrowings
19 Elec. electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services
20 EMDEs Emerging Market and Developing Economies
21 EXP exports
22 FAE first advance estimates
23 FC Finance Commission
24 FII foreign investment inflows
25 Fin. financial, real estate and professional services
26 FPI foreign portfolio investment
27 FRBMA Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act
28 FRL Fiscal Responsibility Legislation
29 FY fiscal year (April—March)
30 GDP Gross Domestic Product
31 GFCE government final consumption expenditure
32 GFCF gross fixed capital formation
33 GoI Government of India
34 G-secs government securities
35 GST Goods and Services Tax
36 GVA gross value added
37 IAD Index of Aggregate Demand
38 IBE interim budget estimates

Sr. no. Abbreviations Description
39 ICRIER Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations
40 IEA International Energy Agency
41 IGST Integrated Goods and Services Tax
42 IIP Index of Industrial Production
43 IMF International Monetary Fund
44 IMI Index of Macro Imbalance
45 IMP imports
46 INR Indian Rupee
47 IPD implicit price deflator
48 MCLR marginal cost of funds-based lending rate
49 Ming. mining and quarrying
50 Mfg. manufacturing
51 m-o-m month-on-month
52 Mt metric ton
53 MoSPI Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
54 MPC Monetary Policy Committee
55 MPF Monetary Policy Framework
56 NEXP net exports (exports minus imports of goods and services)
57 NSO National Statistical Office
58 NPA non-performing assets
59 OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
60 OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
61 PFCE private final consumption expenditure
62 PIT personal income tax
63 PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index (reference value = 50)
64 PoL petroleum oil and lubricants
65 PPP Purchasing power parity
66 PSBR public sector borrowing requirement
67 PSU/PSE public sector undertaking/public sector enterprises
68 RE revised estimates
69 RBI Reserve Bank of India
70 SLR Statutory Liquidity Ratio
71 Trans. trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting
72 US$ US Dollar
73 UTGST Union Territory Goods and Services Tax
74 WALR weighted average lending rate
75 WHO World Health Organization
76 WPI Wholesale Price Index
77 y-o-y year-on-year
78 1HFY20 first half of fiscal year 2019-20, i.e., April 2019-September 2019

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86th issue

1 Growth: real GDP grew by 7.6% in 2QFY24 5

2 Inflation: CPI inflation increased to 5.6% in November 2023 7

5 In focus: Sixteenth Finance Commission: starting from the constitutional slate 11

9 Index of Aggregate Demand (IAD): grew by 9.2% in October 2023 26

10 Capturing macro-fiscal trends: data appendix 27

Prepared by Macro-fiscal Unit, Tax and Economic Policy Group, EY India

D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY: dk.srivastava@in.ey.com

2. In November 2023, both manufacturing and services PMI remained at high

3. IIP growth accelerated to a 16-month high of 11.7% in October 2023, largely

4. CPI inflation increased to 5.6% in November 2023 from 4.9% in October

9. During April-October FY24, GoI’s fiscal and revenue deficits, as a proportion

11. Merchandise exports and imports contracted by (-)2.8% and (-)4.3% in

12. Merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$20.6 billion in November 2023

14. Average global crude price moderated to a four-month low of US$81.4/bbl. in

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 3

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 4

► Among the other two domestic -25.0

IIP (% growth, LHS) PMI (manufacturing, RHS)

1.3 IIP: growth accelerated to 11.7% in October 2023

2.1 CPI inflation

Source: MoSPI, Office of the Economic Adviser, Government of India (GoI)

3.1 Tax and non-tax revenues

Chart 5: Growth in central expenditures during April-October (%, y-o-y)

Source (basic data): Monthly Accounts, CGA, Government of India

3.3 Fiscal imbalance

Chart 6: Fiscal and revenue deficit during April-October as percentage of BE

annual BE, stood at 45%

Fiscal deficit Revenue deficit

Source: Monthly Accounts, CGA, Government of India and MoSPI

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 9

4.1 Volume of exports of goods and services

2023, a contraction of (-)0.1% is projected *Data pertains to fiscal year

for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

4.2 Current account balance

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 10

5.3 Resolving vertical, horizontal, and fiscal imbalances

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 13

Center's GTR States OTR Combined tax

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 14

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 15

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 16

State of fiscal imbalance

State of horizontal imbalance

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 19

Table 9: State-wise shares in area related parameters (%)

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 21

6.1 Monetary sector

Source: Database on Indian Economy, RBI

► Sectoral bank credit data indicate that credit to

6.2 Financial sector

Net FPI Net FDI

7.2 Merchandise trade and exchange rate

high of US$31.5 billion in October 2023 due to a

Economy Watch: December 2023 | 24

8.1 Global growth

9.1 Growth in IAD continued to remain strong at 9.2% in October 2023

Chart 17: Growth in IAD (y-o-y)