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17fb5nCgH5HXWU8WhWO MSXSXV6mwwvQW
17fb5nCgH5HXWU8WhWO MSXSXV6mwwvQW
Submitted by
PARTH A JOSHI
SY MBA
ROLL NO:- 20
Submitted to the
This is my own work & the report prepared there in is based on my study and experience, during the
tenure of my study.
No good task can be completed without the help of others. After the completion of this project, I feel
it is necessary to think who helped me and co-operated with during the project.
I would like to take an opportunity to express the feeling of gratitude towards Veer Narmad South
Gujarat University as a part of Comprehensive Project Report as a duty of syllabus of MBA course.
I take opportunity to express my deep sense of gratitude to Dr. Renuka Garg, Professor & Head of
Department of Business & Industrial Management, for her indirect but consistent encouragement to
the research and development.
I express my profound sense of gratitude to DR VATSAL PATEL my project guide, who provided
me undeviating encouragement, indefatigable guidance and valuable suggestions throughout the
research project.
I am very sincerely & heartily grateful to her for providing me a great break by selecting me as a
researcher under him.
Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family and my friends for supporting me spiritually
throughout writing this research and my life in general.
II
EXECUTIVE SUMMURY
BSE and NSE stock exchange have various stocks. Investors can choose any stock out of it, for their
effectiveportfolio.
The basic problem of investing on stock market is most of the investors are not clear about the
fundamentals and technical of investment, they mainly concentrate on risk and return involve in
investing and make decision without the guidance of the experts.
In this study, all 45 stocks are listed on NSE. The period of the stocks is selected for one year from
26th Aug 2020 to 26th Aug 2021. The technical analysis is done by using RSI, MACD, CCI and
Moving average indicators.
The technical analysis is the study of financial market action. The technical analysis looks at the
price movement the occurred on day to day or week to week or over other constant time period
display in graphic form, it’s called chart. Technical analysis is a process of analyzing a security’s
historical prices in an effort to determine probable future prices also show that all technical indicators
cannot give an accurate decision and only a combination of few indicators can give accurate
decisions. The study shows that the historical prices have an impact on future prices. So past trend
can be used to predict the trend of future prices, however even if you are unable to accurately forecast
prices, technical analysis can be used to consistently reduce your risk and improve your profits.
From the study it has been understood that the price movement of the shares can be determined by
using technical analysis and accurate buy & sale decision can be made so that the investor can
minimize their riskand maximize their profit.
III
COLLEGE CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that Mr. Parth Joshi, student of MBA Finance, has submitted the
1
CH-1.1 INTRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY
It is the oldest stock exchange not only in India but also in Asia. It was the first exchange toreceive
recognition from Indian Government.
BSE online trading (BOLT) facilitates online screen based trading in securities. BSE reachesto over
400 cities across India.
SENSEX:
Sensex has become the barometer of the Indian Stock Market. It is comprised of 30, well-established
and financially sound companies.
Right now Sensex is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Established in 1875, BSE (formerly known as Bombay Stock Exchange), is Asia's first & theFastest
Stock Exchange in world with the speed of 6 micro seconds and one of India's leading exchange
groups. Over the past 143 years, BSE has facilitated the growth of the
2
Indian corporate sector by providing it an efficient capital-raising platform. Popularly knownas BSE,
the bourse was established as The Native Share & Stock Brokers' Association in 1875. In 2017 BSE
become the 1st listed stock exchange of India.
Today BSE provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity, currencies, debt
instruments, derivatives, mutual funds. BSE SME is Indias largest SME platform which has listed
over 250 companies and continues to grow at a steady pace. BSE StAR MF is Indias largest online
mutual fund platform which process over 27 lakh transactions per monthand adds almost 2 lakh new
SIPs ever month. BSE Bond, the transparent and efficient electronic book mechanism process for
private placement of debt securities, is the market leader with more than Rs 2.09 lakh crore of fund
raising from 530 issuances. (F.Y. 2017- 2018).
Keeping in line with the vision of Shri Narendra Modi, Honorable Prime Minister of India, BSEhas
launched India INX, India's 1st international exchange, located at GIFT CITY IFSC in Ahmedabad.
3
Indian Clearing Corporation Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of BSE, acts as the central
counterparty to all trades executed on the BSE trading platform and provides full novation,
guaranteeing the settlement of all bonafide trades executed.
BSE Institute Ltd, another fully owned subsidiary of BSE runs one of the most respectedcapital
market educational institutes in the country.
BSE has also launched BSE Sammaan, the CSR exchange, is a 1st of its kind initiative which aims
to connect corporate with verified NGOs
BSE's popular equity index - the S&P BSE SENSEX - is India's most widely tracked stockmarket
benchmark index. It is traded internationally on the EUREX as well as leading exchanges of the
BRCS nations (Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa)
VISION
"Emerge as the premier Indian stock exchange with best-in-class global practice in technology,
products innovation and customer service."
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in BSE is aligned with its tradition of creating wealthin the
community with a three pronged focus on Education, Health and the Environment.
Besides funding charitable causes for the elderly and the physically challenged, BSE has been
supporting the rehabilitation and restoration efforts in earthquake-hit communities of Gujarat. BSE
has been awarded the Golden Peacock Global - CSR Award for its initiatives inCorporate Social
Responsibility (CSR) by the World Council of Corporate Governance.
4
AWARDS AND RECOGNITIONS
As a pioneering financial institution in the Indian capital market, BSE has won severalawards and
recognitions that acknowledge the work done and progress made.
IT Genius Awards 2017 in the category Data Centre Excellence for setup of the IndiaINX Data
Centre by CORE (Centre of Recognition & Excellence)
Digital Innovation Award 2017 for the Social Media Analytics Project by Netmagic
The Best Exchange of the year award for equity and currency derivatives in Tefla'sCommodity
Economic Outlook Award 2017
Best Brand award 2017 by Economic Times
Best Corporate film encompassing Vision, History, Value and Spirit of Excellence award, Best
Corporate film on Employer Branding award and Most Influential HRLeaders in India award at
World HRD Congress 2017
'Best Exchange of the year' award at 4th India Bullion & Jewellery awards 2017
Best IT Implementation Award 2016 in the Most Complex Project Category byPCQuest
InfoSec Maestros Awards 2016 .
5
SKOCH Rennaissance Award 2014 for Corporate Social Responsibility
HR was awarded with Asia's Best Employer Brand Awards at Singapore in twocategories in August
2014
Asia's Best Employer Brand Award
50 most talented global HR leaders in Asia at the World HRD congress at Mumbai inFebruary-
2014
FIICI-Frames Best Animation Film-International Category for the Investor Education television
commercial
India Innovation Award for Big Data Implementation
SKOCH Order of Merit for E-Boss for qualifying among Indias Best 2013
Indian Merchant Chamber Award in the Large Enterprise Category for use of Information
Technology
Best Managed Financial Derivatives Exchange in the Asia Pacific by the The AsianBanker
The Golden Peacock Global CSR Award for its initiatives in Corporate SocialResponsibility
BSE has won NASSCOM - CNBC-TV18s IT User Awards, 2010 in FinancialServices category
BSE has won Skoch Virtual Corporation 2010 Award in the BSE Star MF category
Responsibility Award (CSR), by the World Council of Corporate Governance
6
HISTORY AND MILESTONES
BSE, the first ever stock exchange in Asia established in 1875 and the first in the country tobe granted
permanent recognition under the Securities Contract Regulation Act, 1956, has had an interesting
rise to prominence over the past 143 years.
The journey of BSE is as eventful and interesting as the history of India's securities market. Following
are some of the key milestones and achievements
MILESTONES :
1st October BSE launches its commodity derivatives segment making it Indias 1st
Universal Exchange
1st August BSE investments Limited acquires 24% stake in CDSL Commodity
repository Limited (CCRL)
1st August BSE launches chatbot, Ask Motabhai, for faster, more convenient access
to stock market information
27th June BSE StAR MF crossed 10000 Mutual Funds Distributors registrations
24th May BSE signs Memorandum of Understanding with Brinks India Pvt Ltd
21st February BSE signs an MOU with Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA)
7
21st February BSE to launch cross currency derivatives and cross INR options with
effect from 27th February 2018
2017
26th October India's Premier Stock Exchange BSE and World's largest Insurance
Exchange Ebix, Inc. Sign MOU to Launch Joint Venture Company, for
Setting up Pioneering Insurance Distribution Network in India
22nd August Asia Index Private Limited launches the S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index
1st August BSE receives SEBI "No Objection" to act as a "Facilitator" in non-
competitive bidding in the auction of Government Securities and T-Bills
21st July BSE wins Business World Digital Leadership and CIO Award
23rd March BSE crosses another milestone of raising Rs.200,111 Crore via the Debt
online platforms
16th March BSE partners with Sentifi for analyzing and reporting social media updates
6th March Asia Index Private Limited launches S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 Index
9th January Honble Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi inaugurated India
International Exchange (IFSC) Ltd, Indias 1st International Exchange
2015 to 2016
9th July, 2016 Shri Arun Jaitley, Hon'ble Minister of Finance Unveiled the
Commemorative Postage Stamp Celebrating 140 glorious years of BSE
21st June, 2016 BSE gets SEBI approval to launch BSEBOND- Electronic Book
Mechanism for issuance of debt securities on private placement
8
9th June, 2016 BSE announces commencement of trading of Sovereign Gold Bonds
2nd May, 2016 BSE Migrates Algorithm Trading Test Environment to Cloud
Infrastructure
28th April, 2016 BSE signs Memorandum of Understanding with Korea Exchange (KRX)
to launch S&P BSE Sensex based derivatives contracts at KRX
5th April, 2016 BSE & CMIE launch worlds first high-frequency data on unemployment
and consumer sentiments
28th March, 2016 BSE StAR Mutual Fund Processes 81,000 orders worth Rs. 270 crore -
Record Order in single day
9th December, 2015 BSE partners with CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) and IICA
(Indian Institute of Corporate Affairs) to launch a one of its kind CSR
platform 'Sammaan The CSR Exchange
13th October, 2015 BSE becomes the fastest exchange in the world with a median response
speed of 6 microseconds
16th July, 2015 BSE SME platform successfully completes listing of 100 SMEs under its
SME umbrella
28th May, 2015 BSE exceeds 1 billion derivatives contracts on its new Deutsche Börse T7
powered trading platform
16th April, 2015 Asia Index Private Limited launches S&P BSE AllCap, S&P BSE
SENSEX Leverage and Inverse Indices
8th Jan, 2015 BSE commenced live trading from its Disaster Recovery site in
Hyderabad
9
2011 to 2014
12th Dec, 2014 Market Cap of BSE SME listed companies crosses landmark 10,000 crore
28th Nov, 2014 BSE listed cos market cap crosses landmark 100 lakh crore
22nd Oct, 2014 BSE inks strategic partnership with YES BANK
27th May, 2014 BSE felicitated at The Asian Banker Summit 2014 - BSE Best Managed
Financial Derivatives Exchange in the Asia Pacific
7th April, 2014 Launch of Equity Segment on BOLT Plus with Median Response Time of
200 (µs)
4th April, 2014 BSE SME exceeds USD 1 billion market capitalization
19th February, 2013 BSE enters into Strategic Partnership with S&P Dow Jones Indices
22nd February, 2012 Launch of S&P BSE-GREENEX to promote investments in Green India
7th January, 2011 BSE Training Institute Ltd. with IGNOU launched India's first 2 year full
time MBA program specializing in Financial Market
10
17th November, 2011 Maharashtra and United Kingdom Environment Ministers launched
Concept Note for S&P BSE Carbon Index
2006 to 2010
11th October, 2010 Launch of Fastrade on Web (FoW) - Exchange hosted platform
12th May, 2010 Dissemination of Corporate Action information via SWIFT platform
22nd April, 2010 New DBM framework @ Rs.10 lakhs - 90% reduction in Membership
Deposit
4th January, 2010 Market time changed to 9.00 a.m. - 3.30 p.m.
18th December, 2009 BSE's new derivatives rates to lower transaction costs for all
7th December, 2009 Launch of clearing and settlement of Corporate Bonds through Indian
Clearing Corporation Ltd.
11
4th December, 2009 BSE Launches BSE StAR MF Mutual Fund trading platform
25th November, 2009 BSE launches FASTRADE - a new market access platform
5th October, 2009 BSE Introduces New Transaction Fee Structure for Cash Equity Segment
1st October, 2009 Bombay Stock Exchange introduces trade details facility for the Investors
7th August, 2009 BSE - USE Form Alliance to Develop Currency & Interest Rate
Derivatives Markets
18th May, 2009 The S&P BSE SENSEX raised 2110.70 points (17.34%) and Index-wide
upper circuit breaker applied
16th May, 2007 Appointed Date under the Scheme i.e. Date on which Corporatization and
Demutualization was achieved. Notified by SEBI in the Official Gazette
on 29.06.2007
7th March, 2007 Singapore Exchange Limited entered into an agreement to invest in a 5%
stake in BSE
2nd January, 2007 Launch of Unified Corporate Bond Reporting platform : Indian Corporate
Debt Market (ICDM)
2nd November, 2006 iShares S&P BSE SENSEX India Tracker listed at Hong Kong Stock
Exchange
12
2001 to 2005
20th May, 2005 The BSE (Corporatisation and Demutualisation) Scheme, 2005 (the
Scheme) announced by SEBI
17th May, 2004 Second biggest fall of all time, Circuit filters used twice in a day (564.71
points, 11.14%)
2nd June, 2004 S&P BSE SENSEX closes over 6000 for the first time
1st January, 2003 India 's first ETF on S&P BSE SENSEX - SPICE' introduced
13
25th July, 2001 S&P BSE Dollex 30 launched
11th July, 2001 BSE Teck launched, India 's First free float index
2nd July, 2001 VaR model introduced for margin requirement calculation
1996 to 2000
1st June, 1999 Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) / Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) allowed
22nd March, 1999 Central Depository Services Ltd.(CDSL) set up with other financial
institutions
14
1875 to 1995
1st May 1992 SEBI Act established ( An Act to protect, develop and regulate the
securities market)
2nd January 1986 S&P BSE SENSEX , country's first equity index launched (Base
Year:1978-79 =100)
31st August 1957 BSE granted permenant recognition under Securities Contracts
(Regulation) Act (SCRA)
9th July 1875 The Native Share & Stock Broker's Association formed
15
ACHIEVEMENT
At par with international standards, BSE Ltd. has been a pioneer in several areas over the decades
and hasmany firsts and key achievements to its credit.
Become securities market infrastructure member of SWIFT in India and providecorporate actions to
custodians in ISO 15022 format
Launched S&P BSE SENSEX Realized S&P BSE Volatility (REALVOL) Index inNov 2010
Besides the above, BSE has taken large strides in product and service innovation forthe benefit of its
members and investors, notable ones being
Launch of a reporting platform for corporate bonds
Launch of the S&P BSE IPO index and S&P BSE PSU website
Launch of trading in S&P BSE SENSEX futures on EUREX and leading exchangesof the BRICS
nation bloc
Launched Smart Order Routing for members and investors
16
Launched co-location facility at BSE premises in November 2010
Reduction in membership fees to Rs. 10 lakh for new memberships to promotefinancial access and
inclusion
Launch of web-based mutual fund trading platform for investors
17
NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE (NSE) :
NSE commenced its operations in Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) in April 1994 and in Capital
Market (Equities) segment in June 1994.
It formed first clearing corporation (NSCCL), which carries out clearing and settlement oftrades
executed in equities and Derivatives segments.
Since then it has evolved to be the highest volume generating Exchange in India. It has gotwidest
network of terminal across India. They also provide online trading facilities over internet.
Nifty is a well-diversified 50 stock index accounting for 22 sectors of the economy. This Index was
launched in 1996. It is the first index constructed by the National StockExchange.
Its construction is slightly different form that of Sensex. Sensex measures the floatingcapitalization
of its constituents, however, Nifty is a step behind, it takes the full capitalization of its 50
constituents.
18
INTRODUCTION
Powered by millions of dreams, hopes and aspirations, India today is brimming with potential. At
NSE, we are driven by this ambition that makes India charge ahead and take amore prominent place
on the global stage.
We aim to catalyze India's growth story by creating investment opportunities, enabling access and
empowering our stakeholders. We work harder, smarter and faster to deliver impact across the
investment ecosystem. In a world that changes shape by the second, weconstantly reinvent ourselves
to redefine the future.
Our ambition gives us direction. It pivots, and propels us. It is the leap we take from today,towards
a brighter tomorrow.
PURPOSE
Committed to improve the financial well-being of people.
VISION
To continue to be a leader, establish global presence, facilitate the financial well-being ofpeople.
19
VALUES
NSE is committed to above core values.
NSE's sustained leadership positions across asset classes in the Indian and global exchange sectors
demonstrates the robustness and liquidity of our exchange.
NSE was incorporated in 1992. It was recognised as a stock exchange by SEBI in April 1993and
commenced operations in 1994 with the launch of the wholesale debt market, followed shortly after
by the launch of the cash market segment.
Between 1994 and 2016, we expanded our lines of business and product offerings through the
following key milestones:
YEAR MILESTONES
2018 NSE signs Post-Trade Technology and Strategic Partnership Agreement
with Nasdaq
20
Tech City - International Financial Service Centre. NSE IFSC Exchange
2012 Commenced trading in index futures and options contracts on the FTSE
100 index
21
2009 Launched Mutual Fund Service System (MFSS).
2001 Launched index options based on the NIFTY 50 index (then known as
S&P CNX NIFTY) for trading
22
AWARDS & RECOGNITION
National Stock Exchange wins the FICCI CSR Award for Exemplary
Innovation, 2017
2016 CII- Exim Bank Prize for Business Excellence.
Futures and Options World Award for Indian Exchange of the Year.
CORPORATE STRUCTURE
NSE was incorporated in 1992. It was recognized as a stock exchange by SEBI in April 1993and
commenced operations in 1994 with the launch of the wholesale debt market, followed shortly after
by the launch of the cash market segment.
23
Between 1994 and 2016, we expanded our lines of business and product offerings through key
milestones:
We have also grown our business beyond traditional listing and trading services:
YEAR HISTORY
1995 Setup wholly-owned subsidiary, NSE Clearing, which became the first clearing
corporation to be established in India (according to the Oliver Wyman Report). NSE Clearing
commenced clearing and settlement operations in the following year.
1998 Established NSE Indices, our subsidiary, as a joint venture with CRISIL Limited to
operate an indices business. NSE Indices became a wholly-owned subsidiary in 2013 following the
acquisition of CRISIL's 49% stake.
1999 Established NSEIT, a wholly-owned subsidiary and a global technology firm that
provides end-to-end technology solutions, including application services, infrastructure services,
analytics as a service and IT enabled services. In 2015 and 2016, respectively, NSEIT launched its
Testing Center of Excellence and Integrated Security Response Center
2000 Incorporated DotEx, a wholly-owned subsidiary, and consolidated the data and info-
vending business under DotEx.
Incorporated NSE InfoTech Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary for IT research and development.
2016 Consolidated the education business under NSE Academy, a wholly-owned subsidiary.
Incorporated two new subsidiaries, NSE IFSC Limited and NSE IFSC ClearingCorporation Limited,
in furtherance of NSE's long-term business strategy to establish an international exchange in GIFT
City.
NSE also has strategic investments in complementary businesses, including mutual fund registry
services, back-end exchange support services for its platforms, depository services, e-corporate
governance and commodity, power and receivables exchanges.
24
CH 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
25
(1) Kristina levisauskaite(2010). Leonardo da vinci program project. A study on "Investment
analysis and portfolio management". Objective was to understand and practiced for sound investment
decisions making. Target investors were entrepreneurs and practitioners. Variance and standard
deviation are used when investor was focused on estimating total risk. Sample variance and sample
standard deviation more often used when investor evaluate total risk. The coefficient of
determination was calculated as the square of correlation coefficient. Theoretical interpretation
involves every single risky asset in the global economic system.
(2) Shyam sundhar & ran kumar kakani (2006). XLRI Jamshedpur, school of management. Astudy
on "Profiting from Technical Analysis in Indian equity market." The objective of this study was
firstly to comprehend the simplest and most popular of all technical analysis criteria for stock is NSE
- Nifty and BSE -Sensex. This study look at stock charts for patternsand indicators that will determine
stock's future performance. The weak form efficiency hypothesis tested using the selected moving
average tools on the validated data. The study also assumes that a trader can buy and sell
instantaneously at the closing prices of the stock.
(3) Dr. Asha E.Thomas (2014).A study on technical analysis and its usefulness in Indian stock
market. The aim of this study was to evaluate technical analysis from Indian perspective and to find
out its usefulness in Indian stock market. Sample size was 29 company's shares. T- tests conducted
for various holding periods and formulation periods. Weak form market inefficiency in India was
most likely to be caused. Technical analysis was tries to do away with the complexity by basing
everything on price action. Trader experience and judgment was the key to success in using technical
analysis tools.
26
(4) Massoud Metghalchi (2012). International journal of economics and finance. A study on
"Technical analysis of the Taiwanese stock market." 'To identify a trend was reversal at a relatively
early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of evidence shows or proves thatthe trend was
reversed.' The use of daily open, high, low, close and volume of the Taiwanesestock index from
NOV. 15th of 1990 to August 16th of 2010. The Technical indicator MA, RSI, PSAR, DMS,
histogram, stochastic, MFI overall test were used. This study compares allestimated t-statistics with
the critical value. All data are collected from data stream and expressed in Taiwan dollar. Technical
analysis was help to reveal non-fundamental variable in the short term. The study of market action,
primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future prices.
(5) Boris. S. Abbey & John A. Douglas (2012). Journal of portfolio management. Study on "Is
Technical analysis profitable for individual currency traders?" Use of technical analysis generate
abnormal gains for individual currency traders. The sample consists of 428 accounts and 33,952 daily
net returns for the period march 2004 to September 2009. Technical analysis was a popular tool used
by currency traders. Daily accurately return data from our secondary data source, Trade Station
securities. Results of this study contribute to the literature by offering a possible explanation for the
lack of performance of other individual investors. The explanatory variables consist of the daily
returns of variable-weighted investible indices, calculated by using four technical indicators on a
variable weighted currency index.
(6) Camillo lento (2009). SSRN electronic journal. A study on "The combined signal Approach to
technical analysis : A review and commentary" CSA mitigates the problem of choosing between
individual trading rules when they provide conflicting signals, CSA tested DJIA, NASDAQ, TSX,
and US-CAD foreign exchange rate over the period of may 9th 1995to December 31st, 2004. CSA
was comprised of the dual moving average cross-over rule, filter rule and the trading range break-
out rule. The purpose of this study was to increase awareness and foster additional research on CSA
model. The CSA combines individual trading rule to form a consensus buy or sell signal. It was
shown to increase profitability of the individual trading rules and moderate a teaser's decision
regarding which individual trading rule to rely upon. The combining trading signals should generate
a more informative signal than the trading rules alone.
27
CH 3 RESEARCH METHEDOLOGY
28
3.1 TITLE OF THE PROJECT
“TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF SELECTED 5 COMPANIES OF EACH SECTOR OF BSE
AND NSE”
Technical analysis helps you to organize the overall market picture while itlays htepath to rule based
trading.
29
To analyze the performance of selected companies in Indian stock marketand predict the future
trends in the share prices.
30
CH 4 THEORATICAL FRAMEWORK
31
INTRODUCTION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
A technical analysis believes with the help of charts it is possible to identify a trend, Invest ortrade
based on trend and make money as the trend unfolds. Objectives of technical analysis is to forecast
the direction of the future price. It serves the purpose of a map. When we set out on a trip, if we
venture into unknown terrain without a map, we can get lost. Same way without proper study if we
invest or trade in market, it is like trying to aim by firing in dark. Short term traders can take
advantage of Charts by knowing short term supports and resistances, and make the most of it.
Long term investors can use technical analysis to know the long-term trends, so that they canstay
invested and cancel out the short-term volatilities, which could make them, worry. On the other hand
short-term traders can use the same volatility to their advantage, and based on various support and
resistances, they can trade various ranges.
If we take stock market as a battlefield, then technical analysis serves the purpose of weapons. If we
enter into the battlefield without any weapons at hand, the result is evident to all. So without the
knowledge of technical analysis, if you enter the stock market, it is like entering the battlefield bare
handed. To do so is not courage, but foolishness. If you want to win in stock market, you have to
acquire the necessary skills to win in it. By not doing this,
whatever loss you make, you are responsible for it and not the market or anyone else.
As we can see today, that investing just on the basis on fundamental analysis has also become a
hazardous thing to do. Companies can manipulate their balance sheets, and taketheir share prices to
the roof, but when the bubble bursts, the same company can go bust faster than it went up.
32
During such times, "what do you think" is a question, which no one can answer; in fact, it is aquestion
that becomes irrelevant in such circumstances.
Under such circumstances, when a major level is broken one has to exit immediately. Withthe help
of technical analysis, we can do this.
This does not mean that all companies manipulate their balance sheet. So we must neverignore the
fundamentals, but keep a balance and based on technical signals take right decision.
Even when fundamentals look good, if there is some problem, most of the time, you can spotit in the
charts. Even if you are sitting in the best car of the world, if it starts going downhill, you have to
jump out of it. At that time, you have no time to think, "Why this is happening" or "This can't be
happening". You just have to jump out of it and save your life.
The main basis of technical analysis is the rise and fall of prices and the charts that areprepared from
such price data.
Based on study of various types of charts, and indicators, it is decided whether it is the righttime to
enter or exit a stock.
To decide whether a particular stock is at top or bottom in selected time frame, charts areused.
Those who are long term investors, they can ignore the short term ups and downs, and focus on long
term trend and stay invested in stocks. When there is a long-term trend reversal, onlythen they exit
a stock. Those who do not have enough time to invest they must stay away from short term investing
and trading. It is a matter of our choice. Technical analysis gives usboth the options.
In a given time frame how much a stock will rise, where it faces resistance, how much itcould decline,
where it can take support, all can be known.
As you follow traffic signals religiously, if you follow the technical signals religiously too, you can
avoid accidents, i.e. big loss in stock market.
33
One can stay invested in a particular stock for longer run and make good money, but if thesame stock
is bought and sold as per the short and medium term cycles, the returns can beincreased over longer
period.
As said before always remember that to enter the stock market without knowledge, is likeentering
the battlefield without plan and weapons.
Given the manipulation that exists in our markets, people without skills and knowledge tendto loose
in the markets, and they blame their brokers and markets eventually.
But as I have mentioned earlier, stock market must be taken battlefield, and if we enter themarkets
without the bulletproof jacket of knowledge and skills, then we cannot A hope of victory.
Knowledge serves the purpose of a torch in darkness. Everyone can make mistake. But thosewho
realize their mistake and vindicate it, can hope to survive and win the battle of stock market in the
longer run.
Charts can help you determine whether a stock is historically high or low. They help you determine
whether stock is in an uptrend or downtrend.
The most important key to successful investing is the ability to spot market trends.
Another great strength of chart analysis is timing. Better you are at it, better the performance.
Fundamental Analysis Vs Technical Analysis:
Difference between fundamental analyst and technical analyst is that Fundamental analyst is
concerned with why the price is what it is, and the Technical analyst is only concerned with What
and never mind Why.
Technical analysis is the study of prices due to supply and demand and such factors.
34
Fundamental analysis is the study of factors that have an influence on price changes.
Technical analysis if used properly and in disciplined manner helps in minimizing loses and
maximizing profits. That is what our goal is.
Before getting deep into the subject of Technical Analysis, first let us understand the basics of
technical analysis.
The fundamental basis for technical analysis is that prices shift with supply and demand. If the
demand exceeds the supply, the price will rise. If the supply exceeds the demand, the price will fall.
Charts reflect this rise and fall. By studying this movement on a chart and using the technical studies,
you can make predictions on which way the price is likely to go.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
The moving averages are lagging indicators i.e. they are trend following indicators, and are usedto
identify changes in trends.
The moving average is a way of calculating the average price of an instrument over a given time
span. As prices change over time, the average price reflects the change, but at a slower pace.
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If the current price moves above the x day moving average, It indicates a buy signal. Same way ifx
days of average moves above its higher average, buy signal is achieved. The value of x dependson
the time frame selected.
If the current price moves below the moving average, it indicates a sell signal. The value of xdepends
on the time frame selected.
One must always remember that moving average is designed to inform you of an instrument'sprice
trend, not to determine the top or bottom.
When to Use –
They are best suited for trend identification and trend following purposes, not forprediction.
Because moving averages follow the trend, they work best when a security is trending and are
ineffective when a security moves in a trading range.
Moving averages work well only in trending markets or securities. When prices are nottrending
moving averages do not work well for investors.
Key is to find a moving average and combination that will be consistently profitable.
Most popular moving average is 39week, i.e. 200Day Moving average.
It is said that Bulls live above 200DMA and Bears live below 200DMA.
Short-term traders may look for evidence of 2-3 week trends with a 21-day moving.
Longer-term investors may look for evidence of 3-4 month trends with a 40-week movingaverage.
For trading purpose lesser parameter can be used, say 10DMA or 20DMA
The advantages of using moving averages need to be weighed against the disadvantages.
Moving averages are trend following, or lagging indicators that will always be a stepbehind.
This is not necessarily a bad thing though. After all, the trend is your friend and it is best to
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trade in the direction of the trend.
Moving averages will help ensure that a trader is in line with the current trend. Don'texpect to get out
at the top and in at the bottom using moving averages.
As with most tools of technical analysis, moving averages should not be used on their own,but in
conjunction with other tools that complement them.
When lesser day moving average crosses above a greater value moving average, Buy signal is
generated.
1. Shorter periods like 3 & 7 days and 7 & 21 days can be used.
Use shorter periods for early entry and then move to longer periods for confirmation ofcontinuation
of trend.
In order to reduce the lag in simple moving averages technicians use Exponential-moving
averages and exponentially weighted moving averages.
Exponential moving averages reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices relative to
older prices. It reacts quicker to recent price changes than the simple movingaverages.
Which moving average you use will depend on your trading and investing style andpreferences.
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2. Simple Moving Averages –
The simple moving average obviously has a lag, but the exponential moving average maybe prone
to quicker breaks.
With this in mind, investors and traders should first that display identify securitiescharacteristics
before attempting to analyze with some trending moving averages.
If price movements are choppy and erratic over extended period of time, then a movingaverage is
probably not the best choice for analysis.
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TWO MOVING AVERAGE SYSTEM –
An alternative approach to using filters to use a fast moving average to represent the price line. The
fast moving average used is normally 5 days and the slow moving average selected accordingto the
length of the cycle being traded.
The system still has the same weakness as the single moving average system: unprofitable tradesare
signaled during ranging markets.
Go long when the fast Moving Average crosses the slow MA from below.
Go short when the fast MA crosses the slow MA from above.
In case of two moving average system, lookout for short term averages crossovers.
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When longer term Moving Averages give a Buy Signal, it indicates a long-term bullish move being
established. For signals a major example, 10 & 200 EMA positive crossover bullish movebeing
established with stays for a long time. Use Sorter & Longer day Moving averages on Monthly,
Weekly, and Daily charts based on the time frame you are working on. Establish the trend based on
it and then take the position in the direction of the trend.
The Three Moving Average system attempts to identify ranging markets. They tend to, be
unprofitable when traded with trend indicators.
Trading Signals from Three Moving Averages System-
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MA is above middle MA.
Close long when fast Moving Average crosses to below middle MA from above.
Go short when: middle Moving Average crosses to below slow MA from above; AND fastMA is
below middle MA.
Close short when fast Moving Average crosses to above middle MA from below.
Formation –
There are two lines in MACD. One fast line and one slow line.
Both these lines oscillate above and below the "0" line, and given indication of trend.
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Signals –
The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when MACD falls below its signal line (in mostcases the
dotted line).
Similarly a Buy signal occurs when it rises above the signal line. Thus it is popular tobuy/sell when
MACD goes above/below Zero levels.
When slow line crosses above and below the fast line, Buy and Sell signals are generated.
When MACD is making a new high and price fails to reach new highs divergence occurs,similarly
when Prices makes new highs and MACD fails to make new highs, divergence occurs.
Similarly when price make new lows and MACD does not divergence occurs giving areversal signal.
Based on various chart studies, one can observe that MACD tends to take support and facesresistance
around particular levels established in past.
These levels could be different for different stocks.
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For example, as in the chart below we can see that MACD moves in range between -50and +50
With change of phases, MACD can change range i which it moves.
Depending on price range, MACD tend to oscillate between respective ranges.
In stocks of price range 1000 to 5000, MACD can oscillate between 100 and 500 ormore range.
When MACD is positive in Monthly and Weekly charts, trend remains intact.
Divergence
When Price of an instrument makes a high, and MACD fails to make a new high, one mustunderstand
that bulls are in trouble and trend reversal is imminent. Such negative directions indicate trend
change.
Same way when price makes a new low, but MACD does not make a new low, it indicatesthat bulls
are getting stronger, and a positive trend reversal is imminent.
RSI is a price-following oscillator created by J. Welles Wilder in 1978. As the name indicates it
measures the relative strength of the stock.
Formation
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Use of RSI
RSI is primarily used for checking momentum, and overbought, oversold range.
With the help of RSI one can get overbought and oversold state of a market or a share in aparticular
range.
Market or a share is seen range bound situation, stuck in a Range between important averages orfix
levels, and the RSI oscillates between 30 and 70.
When a share of a market is stuck between two major averages, it remains in a range for a while
before giving a breakout on either side.
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When to Buy?
Buy when RSI after going below 30 levels, manages to give a positive breakout above 30levels. As
soon as it crosses 30 on the upside, one can initiate a buy
One can also buy when RSI takes support at 30 and starts climbing up.
When to Sell?
Sell, when RSI breaks below 70, after retracing from above 70 levels. Or one can sell afterRSI
touches 70. faces resistance there and starts declining.
It is always better to wait for confirmations. In doing so, you may sell one day late, butchances of
whipsaw are reduced.
Note:
In weekly charts when RSI is at 50 levels, and at the came time, the stock get stuck
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between two major averages, it can remain range bound for a long time.
As long as this range remains intact, one can buy and sell when RSI bottoms out near 30and Tops
out near 70.
In daily charts when RSI stagnates near 50, we do not get any range to trade, so one muststay away
from such stock or market.
When market enters overall bull phase, mostly RSI is seen oscillating between 50 and 100 formany
days consistently, in daily time frame. In weekly and monthly it keeps above 50 and 70 levels
respectively.
When to Buy?
On daily time frame whenever RSI takes support on 50 levels, it gives opportunity to buy.
When RSI goes above 70, momentum gains strength.
As long as RSI keeps in this range, Bullish phase more remains intact.
As long as weekly RSI is above 50, and Monthly RSI is above 70, in daily time frame RSImostly
oscillates between 50 and 70, with very few exceptions, when during a wild gyration, it may break
below 50 for brief period and swiftly move above 50 to remain above it once again.
When to Sell?
From above 70, when it breaks 70 on downwards move. one can sell for short time.
Selling from higher levels can be a bit risky, as during this phase, declines are very littleand mostly
for a short period. So one must focus on buying on declines more.
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RSI between 30 and 50
When RSI breaks below 50 in daily chart and remains below 50 and oscillates between 50 and 30,it
must be understood that bear phase has been established for some time, so one has to sell on every
rise.
When such trend is established, it is seen that R5i B below 50 in weekly charts.
If RSI goes below 50 in monthly charts, then long-term bear phase is established.
When to Buy?
When RSI takes support at 30 levels, or rises from below 30 crossing it upwards, one cango long for
short time.
In buying there is some risk, as the downtrend below 30 RSI level can extend for longerperiod.
When to Sell?
When RSI rises from 30 levels to 50, it faces resistance near it, so one must be ready tosell.
Best use can be to sell every time RSI faces resistance near 50.
RSI below 30
In a ranging market when RSI goes below, it must be understood that soon you may get a buying
opportunity.
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When to Buy?
In ranging market when RSI goes below 30 or takes support at 30, it gives an opportunityto buy.
But in trending market, one must not make haste and try to buy the bottoms, as RSI can remain
below 30 levels for a long period. In such scenario, we do not get chance to exit onrise, and we
can get stuck in a position for long time trying to pick bottom.
That is why unless the momentum of downtrend does not fizzle out, and RSI after risingabove
30, does not take support on 30, one must not initiate a buy.
When RSI remains below 30, bottoms can be established at a lot lower level than ourexpectation.
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Never plunge thinking that the stock is available cheap.
A stock once at 1000 rupees can look cheap, and in bear phase the same stock whenavailable at 150,
can look expensive. So never get blinded with such illusions.
We must never buy and sell based on such illusions.
In a ranging market when RSI crosses 70, it must be understood that soon you may get a selling
opportunity.
When to Buy?
In ranging markets when RSI crosses 70 or faces resistance near 70 one has to sell.
But in trending markets, when RSI crosses above 70, iť's like the car going into the fifth gear. The
momentum of up move becomes stronger, and one side sharp up move can bewitnessed.
One must not sell prematurely in such circumstances.
As long as RSI does not go below 70 and faces resistance of 70 again, one can keep long. *
In weekly charts RSI is generally above 70. In monthly charts it is above 70 too.
One can keep long as long as RSI keeps taking support on 70.
When to Sell?
After staying above 70 levels for long time, when RSI breaks below 70 levels, on must selltaking
into consideration all other indicator signals.
When there is divergence between price and RSI, we get signal that trend reversal is
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imminent.
Positive and negative divergences are observed between price and RSI at different stagesof bull and
bear phases.
One can stop such divergences, and take an early entry and make a good percentage gain inshort
term.
There is some risk involved in this, because after a divergence is formed, the trend reversalcould take
some time, so one must have patience. Sometimes whipsaws can also occur.
Prices keep dragging downwards, while RSI takes support near bottom and forms higherbottom
higher tops.
Prices can either decline, or fail to rise, while RSI starts inching upwards, which forms apositive
divergence.
Once such formation is seen, one can say that trend reversal is imminent.
Once such positive divergence is formed, it can take some time, before the prices alsostarts moving
upwards, as per the nature of Divergences.
So once such divergence is spotted, one can initiate buy.
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away from such stocks.
RSI in Monthly & Weekly Time Frame
The Commodity Channel Index is a momentum oscillator that helps determine when the traded asset
reaches an overbought or oversold state. Traders also use it to better assess the direction and the
strength of a trend and spot reversals and extremes.
The CCI indicator was developed by technical analyst and mathematician Donald Lambert. He
introduced it in Commodities magazine in 1980.
As its name suggests, the indicator’s initial idea was to increase trading efficiency in the commodities
market. It did that by mitigating timing challenges associated with entering cyclical and seasonal
markets. At the time, this was a significant problem for technical traders. That’s because they were
struggling to adequately forecast seasonal market changes and take into account cyclical events
resulting in price fluctuations.
Thanks to its efficiency, the CCI indicator became a favourite tool also of equity and Forex traders
over time. Most use the indicator to determine their entry and exit points, when to jump into a trade
or when to avoid one, and whether they should add to an existing position, etc.
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How to Interpret the Commodity Channel Index?
The Commodity Channel Index represents the difference between the current and the average
historical price change for a particular security.
High positive CCI values indicate that the current prices are above their average. This is a sign of
the trend’s strength.
Low negative indicator values suggest that the prices are below their average. That’s a sign of
weakness.
Traders can choose to use the CCI either as a leading or as a coincident indicator.
When used as a leading indicator, the CCI helps recognize overbought and oversold market
conditions that might lead to a mean reversion, as well as bullish and bearish divergences,
foreshadowing momentum shifts.
On the other hand, when used as a coincident, the CCI signals the emergence of uptrends (surges
above +100) or downtrends (dips below -100).
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Advantages :-
Works in a variety of markets
When you hear the “Commodity Channel Index” term for the first time, it is natural to think that it
is designed to work only in the commodity markets. However, aside from futures, you can also apply
it to equities, forex, and a variety of other asset classes. The vital thing to note is that it should be
adjusted depending on the traded instrument’s historical characteristics.
Easy-to-comprehend even for beginners
The way the Commodity Channel Index’s design makes it easy to use and interpret even by
beginners. All you have to do to use the CCI is to adjust the number of periods you want to analyze.
Once you do that, due to the advanced charting features of trading platforms nowadays, you can
easily spot when the indicator is out-of-bounds, estimate the signal’s strength, and make a trading
decision.
Powerful indicator
The CCI indicator can inform the trader about various market developments. The list includes
overbought and oversold price levels, divergences, and emerging trends. It also provides insights
into the price momentum and its strength, making it one of the most complete technical trading
indicators.
Disadvantages :-
Overbought and oversold levels are subjective
Due to being an unbound indicator, the CCI can’t guarantee that when it drops below -100 or climbs
above +100, it is a fair indication of an oversold or an overbought market. These levels are different
for each instrument. This means you should get familiar with the CCI’s historical movement before
looking for overbought and oversold signals. Sometimes -200 and +200 might be a better choice.
Meanwhile, for other instruments, you might have to switch to -250 and +300, for example.
Shouldn’t be used as a standalone indicator
Although this can be said for practically every technical indicator, we can’t miss highlighting its
importance here, as well. Often, beginners learn one or two indicators and try trading solely on them.
Such strategies aren’t viable nowadays due to the markets’ complexity. The case is no different with
the CCI, so make sure to complement it with other indicators.
Doesn’t take news into account
The indicators take only current price information and compare it to the average mean price for the
preferred period. This means fundamental drivers behind these prices are often left out. This may
sometimes distort the signals the indicator generates. That is why it is essential to avoid taking the
CCI signals for granted. Always look beyond the numbers to seek context and get a fairer
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representation of the situation.
Chart patterns presents various factors like buying selling and the tug war between bulls and bears,
and m importantly who is winning the battle into pictorial form that investors can take position
accordingly.
Chart pattern analysis can be used to make short-term long-term forecasts. The data can beintraday,
daily, weekly or monthly and the patterns can be as short as one day or long as many years.
The science of chart reading, however, is not as easy as the mere memorizing of certain patterns and
pictures and recalling what they generally forecast. Any general stock chart is a combination of
countless different patterns and it accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience
and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental,and, above all, the ability to
weigh opposing indications against each other, to appraise the entire picture in the light of its most
minute and composite details as well as in the recognition of any certain and memorized formula.
Two basic tenets of technical analysis are that prices trend and that history repeats itself.
An uptrend indicates that the forces of demand (bulls) in control and a downtrend that the forces of
supply (bears) are in control. However, prices do not trend forever and as the balance of power shifts,
a chart pattern begins to emerge. Certain patterns, such as a parallel channel, denote a strong trend.
However, the vast majority of chart patterns fall in two groups,Reversal and Continuation Patterns.
REVERSAL PATTERN
Reversal patterns indicate a change of trend and can be broken down into top and bottom formations.
Some of the important reversal patterns are:
Rising Wedge
Falling Wedge
Double Bottom
Double Top
Rounding Bottom
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1) HEAD AND SHOULDER –
The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most oftenseen in
up trends.
In an established up trend eventually, the market begins to slow down in fatigue. Sellers become
dominant at the highs, which results in some decline, which forms the "left shoulder".Where it takes
support forms the beginning of neckline.
Buyers try to shrug of the sellers, and resumes buying, which takes the stock or market to new highs,
which form the "head." However, bears once again become dominant and the new highs are not
quickly turned back and on the downside the continuing neckline already established istested again.
Last leg of buying in this pattern re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but this time it fails
move above the previous high. This last top is considered the right shoulder.
In absence of fresh buying, market tests the neckline again. When the prices falls belowneckline with
high volume and the downtrend extends
In this pattern, Volume has a greater importance. Volume generally follows the price higheron the
left shoulder. However, the head is formed on diminished volume indicating the buyers aren't as
aggressive as they once were. And on the last rallying attempt-the left shoulder-volume is even
lighter than on the head, signaling that the buyers are exhausted.
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New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the marketbreaks
the neckline.
The head and shoulders pattern can sometimes be inverted. The inverted head and shoulderpattern
is typically seen in downtrends.
Bulls jump in and start buying, which results into a small pullback, which results into "LeftShoulder"
But bears re-emerge, and the prices make new lows, but with lesser volumes than witnessedwhen the
"left inverted shoulder" was formed, which forms the "head".
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Which a fresh but limited supply, prices falls a bit, but this time they take support on or nearneckline,
forming the right inverted shoulder and prices start rising again, with higher volumes as the prices
breakout above the neckline and the uptrend extends, after completingthe pattern.
The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize andtrade.
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The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as pricesmove
higher and the trading range narrows.
While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive highgives the
pattern its bearish bias.
However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish, whichcan
make the interpretation a bit confusing.
What can simplify the matters is the fact that when this pattern is on finishing stage, most ofthe
indicators are overbought, and can also show a negative divergence.
The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices movelower.
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In falling wedge though lower top and lower bottoms are made in succession, the decrease in
downside momentum, alert the traders that a trend reversal is imminent.
Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, positive breakout is only possible when buying
surpasses the supply, and the resistance formed by the upper trend line of wedge isbroken upwards.
One should also check the indicators, before initiating any buy position.
Double bottom is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that can takes a few days to afew
weeks or a few months to form.
Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 to 5weeks
minimum between lows.
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Bottoms usually take longer than tops to form and patience can often be a virtue.
A bottom is established, and then the pullback resumes, which can continue till it faces amajor
resistance.
After a few weeks or months, the prices fall back to the previously established support, andform a
double bottom, to rise again from these levels.
One must combine other indicators with this to get confirmations. For example, when a double
bottom is formed, mostly an indicator like RSI or MACD could be showing a positivedivergence,
which makes the signals stronger, that the imminent pullback will come with great conviction from
the bulls.
A "W" like formation is completed, and the stock can even surpass the previously established
resistances depending on the dynamics of market at that time.
As we can see above in Bajaj Hindustan, first bottom was formed in November, 2008 andanother
bottom was formed in March 2009.
Once double bottom was established, Positive breakout 1 was witnessed when pricesmanaged to
cross the trend line resistance.
Second positive breakout was witnessed when the prices crossed the second resistance line aswe can
see in chart
A double top occurs when a stock attempts to break out above a recent peak but fails.(Remember,
that first peak resistance!)
If a stock doesn't immediately get through an old peak, it doesn't mean a double top isforming.
In order to get confirmation, the correction low (vallev) between the two peaks must bebroken to the
downside
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Time Frame between two Gaps:
For short term study a gap of 3 to 4 weeks between two tops can be considered.
One can be a bit flexible in these time frames depending on respective chart behaviors.
The rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern. This pattern demands great patience from
investors, as it takes a lot of time to complete its formation.
Its formation in weekly and Monthly charts, can give a clear signal. It also forms in daily charts, but
daily charts can show more noise due to wild gyrations on some individual days.So for clarity, always
try to find this pattern on weekly and monthly charts.
In simple words it represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to abullish,
and extends its bull run to complete a saucer like shape of it.
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Based on this pattern, one can predict future price targets, which is near the end of the saucercurve.
CONTINUATION PATTERNS :
Continuation Patterns indicates a pause in the trend and indicate that the previous direction will
resume after a period of time.
Triangles
Symmetrical Triangle
Ascending Triangle
Descending Triangle
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Rectangle Pattern
Price Channel
A) SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE -
This pattern can form in either an uptrend, or a downtrend. This pattern Also referred to as acoil, it
usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern.
It is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of thenext move.
During an up trend or a downtrend, there comes a phase where the stocks goes into a consolidation,
with it forming successive higher bottoms and lower tops, with volumefizzling out and the range
becoming narrower.
At one stage the volume dries up and the range is almost absent, when suddenly either bullsor bears
take charge, and a breakout is observed with great spurt in volumes.
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As shown in the figure, from point 2 the chart symmetrical triangle formation.
A parallel trend line is drawn from point 2, which is parallel to the trend line alreadydrawn.
This lines length is same as the length of the trend line that is drawn from point 1through point 5,
which completes the triangle.
The target can be assumed based on the point near which the parallel line ends, whichis extended
from point 2.
B) ASCENDING TRIANGLES –
The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation
pattern.
Whether they form at top or in bottom, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate
accumulation.
An ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout. At some stage during
an uptrend, the stock enters into an upward consolidation
The prices faces resistance near a certain level and each time the decline forming a bottom,which is
higher than the previous one.
But every time it reaches the resistance it is unable to cross this continues till the patternnears it
completion.
Till then higher bottoms are formed, with diminishing volumes, and resistances are faced,without a
big sell off either.
At one stage, the bulls get the upper hand, and a positive breakout is witnessed with hugespurt in
volumes.
Here also parallel trend line can be drawn to get a price target based on the pattern asexplained in the
previous pattern.
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We can see on above chart that the prices formed a symmetrical triangle, and eventually itmanaged
to breakout on the upside.
The parallel trend line extended to give us a price prediction of 300 plus.
C) DESCENDING TRIANGLES –
The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a
continuation pattern.
Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicatedistribution.
Successive lower highs are formed with prices taking support at a certain level on downsideevery
time.
It indicates increased selling pressure and gives us an opportunity to sell at every rise.
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Short-term traders can use this pattern for trading, but long term investors must stay awayfrom a
stock which is witnessing formation of descending triangle.
As the pattern approaches it completion, the volatility diminishes, and so does the volumes.
Price target can be achieved based on drawing parallel trend lines as mentioned previously.
Flags are short-term continuation patterns that mark a small consolidation before the previousmove
resumes.
It is important that flags and pennants are preceded by a sharp advance or decline. Without a sharp
move, the reliability of the formation becomes questionable and a whipsaw could occur.
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A flag is similar to rectangle pattern with the difference that it slopes a little, which is not thecase in
rectangle.
If the already established trend were up, then the flag would slope down. Ifthe established trend were
down, then the flag would slope up.
Once the breakout is achieved with higher volumes, the trend extends itself.
A rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms as a trading range during a pause in the trend.
Rectangles are sometimes referred to as trading ranges or consolidation zones.
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Rectangles represent a trading range in which bulls and bears fight for the eventual win.
As the price nears support, buyers step in and push the price higher. As the price nearsresistance,
bears take over and force the price lower.
Alert traders take advantage of these range bound movements by buying near support andselling near
resistance.
Eventually one group (bulls or bears) will exhaust itself and a winner will emerge when there isa
breakout.
A price channel is a continuation pattern that slopes up or down and remains range bound by an its
upper and lower trend line.
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Traders take advantage of this trend line bound movement, but buying near the support oflower trend
line and selling near the resistance of upper trend line.
Long-term investors just keep their positions long or short until the respective trend line isbroken
against their position.
The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation periodfollowed by
a breakout.
In this pattern after an up move, it is followed by a selloff. This sell off forms the initial partof the
pattern.
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After sell of the trend remains uncertain for some time and then an up move is witnessed.
Then again after reached the previous recorded high in this pattern, the prices correct again toform a
handle like shape.
A subsequent breakout from the handles trading range signals a continuation of the prioradvance.
The cup pattern is like a semi-circle. This pattern is a consolidation period among a major trend
already established.
If the volumes increase when breakout is witnessed, the trend that follows can be consideredstronger.
As with most chart patterns, it is more important to capture the essence of the pattern than the
particulars.
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CH 5
DATA COLLACTION AND DATA ANALYSIS
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EMA :- It broke support of 200 ema so sell until next support
MACD :- Red line cross blue line from above in starting of July so sell
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EMA :-Take rejection from 200 ema and taking support from 20 and 50 ema so natural
MACD :- in early august red line cross blue line from below so buy
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EMA :- below 200 ema and 50 ema cross 200 ema from above so downtrend so sell
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EMA:- 50 ema cross 200 from above so sell
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EMA:- Below 20, 50 and 200 ema so in downtrend so sell
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EMA:- Above 200 ema and broke the last resistance so buy
MACD:- In early august red line cross blue line from below so buy
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EMA:- Broke 200 ema support so sell
78
EMA:- Above 20, 50 and 200 ema so in strong up trend so buy
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EMA:- Above all the ema so buy and also break last resistance so buy
MACD:- Macd in starting of aguest red line cross blue line from below so up trend so buy
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EMA:- 50 cross 200 from below in APRIL and price is above all ema so buy
MACD:- In middle of august red line cross blue line from below so buy
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EMA:- In march 50 cross 200 from below so up trend and above all ema so buy
MACD:- Red line cross blue line from below in last July so buy but in can also get reverse in august so
sell also
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EMA:- Take support from 200 ema in august and break the last high so buy
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EMA:- Above all ema and last take support from 50 ema middle of July so buy
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EMA:- Above all ema so in up trend might get rejection from 1500 so small restresment so sell
MACD:- Red line cross blue line from below in middle of July so buy
85
EMA:- Above all ema and 50 cross 200 in starting of June so in uptrend so buy
MACD:- In last July red line cross blue line from below so buy
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EMA:- 50 cross 200 ema last July so downtrend so sell
MACD:- Red line cross blue line from above in middle June so sell
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EMA:- Breck support of 200 ema so sell
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EMA:- Brock support of 200 ema so sell
MACD:- Red line cross blue lin from above in early august so sell
89
EMA:- Brock support of 200 ema so sell
MACD:- Red line cross blue line from above in middle of June so downtrend so sell
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EMA:- Might take support from 200 ema but get rejection from 50 ema so natural
MACD:- Red line can cross blue line from below so buy
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EMA:- Might take support from 50 ema so buy
92
EMA:- Brock 50 ema and can go to 200 ema so sell
93
EMA:- Take support from 50 ema and break 20 ema line so buy
94
EMA:- Take support from 20 and 50 ema so buy
95
EMA:- Take support from 200 but can get rejection from 50 ema so neutral
96
EMA:- exact on 20 ema so might take support or might take brake down so neutral
97
EMA:- Brock 200 ema in last July and trade below all ema so sell
98
EMA:- In strong up trend but if brock 20 ema so it can come to 50 ema so sell
MACD:- Red line cross blue line from above in early august so sell
99
EMA:- Take support from 200 ema buy might get rejection from 20 ema so neutral
100
EMA:- Trade below all the ema so sell
MACD:- Red line cross blue line from above in early august so sell
101
EMA:- Brock 200 ema in middle august and going up so buy
MACD:- In early august red line cross blue line from below so buy
102
EMA:- Take support from 50 ema and brock 20 ema so buy
MACD:- In middle august red line cross blue line from above so sell
103
EMA:- Take support from 200 ema buy might get rejection from 20 and 50 ema so neutral
104
EMA:- Get rejection from 200 ema and trade below all the ema so sell
CCI:- Cci is between 0 and -100 so might go down below -100 so sell
105
EMA:- Brock all the ema and Get rejection from all the ema so sell
106
EMA:- Stuck between 200 and 50 ema so neutral
107
EMA:- Brock all the ema so sell
MACD:- Red line cross blue line from above in middle of august so sell
108
EMA:- Brock all the ema so sell
109
EMA:- On all the ema so might take support or might brock all ema so neutral
110
EMA:- Brock all the ema so sell
111
EMA:- Stuck between 50 and 200 ema so neutral
112
EMA:- Brock 200 ema but not get closing above 200 so sell
113
EMA:- Get rejection from 20 and 50 ema so can go down to 200 ema so sell
114
EMA:- Give break out from all the ema so buy
CCI:- Cci is above 0 but not 100 so not clear trend so neutral
MACD:- Red line is going to cross blue line from blow so buy
115
EMA:- Take support from 50 ema and brock 20 ema also so buy
MACD:- In middle august red line cross blue line from above so sell
116
CH 6 FINDINGS
117
After 26th Aug 2021
No Companies EMA CCI MACD RSI
1 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd SELL SELL SELL BUY
2 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY BUY
3 Tata Motors Ltd. SELL SELL SELL SELL
4 Bajaj Auto Ltd. SELL SELL SELL SELL
5 Hero MotoCorp Ltd. SELL SELL SELL BUY
6 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. BUY BUY BUY SELL
7 ITC Ltd. SELL SELL SELL SELL
8 Nestle India Ltd. BUY BUY BUY SELL
9 Britannia Industries Ltd. BUY BUY BUY SELL
10 Tata Consumer Products. BUY BUY BUY SELL
11 Infosys Ltd. BUY SELL NEUTRAL SELL
12 Tata Consultancy Services BUY BUY BUY SELL
13 Wipro Ltd. BUY BUY BUY SELL
14 Tech Mahindra Ltd. BUY SELL BUY SELL
15 HCL Technologies Ltd. BUY BUY BUY SELL
16 Zee Ent Enterprises Ltd. SELL SELL SELL BUY
17 PVR Ltd SELL SELL SELL SELL
18 Sun TV Network Ltd. SELL SELL SELL BUY
19 TV18 Broadcast Ltd. SELL SELL SELL SELL
20 Dish TV India Ltd. NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY SELL
21 Tata Steel Ltd. BUY SELL SELL NEUTRAL
22 JSW Steel Ltd. SELL SELL SELL SELL
23 Hindalco Industries Ltd. BUY BUY SELL NEUTRAL
24 Adani Enterprises Ltd. BUY BUY BUY BUY
25 Vedanta Ltd. NEUTRAL SELL SELL SELL
26 Sun Pharma Industries Ltd. NEUTRAL SELL SELL BUY
27 Dr. Reddy's Lab Ltd. SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY
28 Divi's Laboratories Ltd. SELL SELL SELL BUY
29 Cipla Ltd NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY SELL
30 Lupin Ltd. SELL NEUTRAL SELL BUY
31 HDFC Bank Ltd BUY BUY BUY SELL
32 ICICI Bank Ltd. BUY NEUTRAL SELL BUY
33 Axis Bank Ltd. NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
34 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. SELL SELL SELL SELL
35 IndusInd Bank Ltd. SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL
36 State Bank of India NEUTRAL SELL SELL SELL
37 Bank of Baroda SELL SELL SELL SELL
38 Punjab National Bank SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY
39 Canara Bank NEUTRAL SELL SELL SELL
40 Bank of India SELL NEUTRAL SELL SELL
41 DLF Ltd NEUTRAL SELL SELL SELL
42 Godrej Properties Ltd SELL SELL SELL SELL
43 Oberoi Realty Ltd. SELL SELL SELL SELL
44 Phoenix Mills Ltd. BUY NEUTRAL BUY BUY
45 Prestige Est Projects Ltd. BUY NEUTRAL SELL BUY
118
CH 7 CONCLUSION
119
No Companies ACTION
1 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd SELL
2 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. BUY/HOLD
3 Tata Motors Ltd. SELL
4 Bajaj Auto Ltd. SELL
5 Hero MotoCorp Ltd. SELL
6 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. BUY
7 ITC Ltd. SELL
8 Nestle India Ltd. BUY
9 Britannia Industries Ltd. BUY
10 Tata Consumer Products. BUY
11 Infosys Ltd. SELL
12 Tata Consultancy Services BUY
13 Wipro Ltd. BUY
14 Tech Mahindra Ltd. HOLD
15 HCL Technologies Ltd. BUY
16 Zee Ent Enterprises Ltd. SELL
17 PVR Ltd SELL
18 Sun TV Network Ltd. SELL
19 TV18 Broadcast Ltd. SELL
20 Dish TV India Ltd. HOLD
21 Tata Steel Ltd. SELL
22 JSW Steel Ltd. SELL
23 Hindalco Industries Ltd. BUY
24 Adani Enterprises Ltd. BUY
25 Vedanta Ltd. SELL
26 Sun Pharma Industries Ltd. SELL
27 Dr. Reddy's Lab Ltd. SELL
28 Divi's Laboratories Ltd. SELL
29 Cipla Ltd HOLD
30 Lupin Ltd. SELL
31 HDFC Bank Ltd BUY
32 ICICI Bank Ltd. BUY
33 Axis Bank Ltd. HOLD
34 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. SELL
35 IndusInd Bank Ltd. SELL/HOLD
36 State Bank of India SELL
37 Bank of Baroda SELL
38 Punjab National Bank SELL
39 Canara Bank SELL
40 Bank of India SELL
41 DLF Ltd SELL
42 Godrej Properties Ltd SELL
43 Oberoi Realty Ltd. SELL
44 Phoenix Mills Ltd. BUY
45 Prestige Est Projects Ltd. BUY
120
CH 8 SUGGESTIONS
121
122
123