Rogue States
Rogue States
Rogue States
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Setting Boundaries:
Can International Society Exclude
"Rogue States"?1
ELIZABETHN. SAUNDERS
In the 1990s, the term "rogue state" became fashionable in US foreign policy
discourse. The United States government bestowed the "rogue state" label on
countries such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba, and North Korea. The most commonly
invoked criteria for "rogue" status were state support for terrorism and the pursuit
of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). At the same time, many traditional US
allies, especially members of the European Union, consistently rejected the "rogue
state" label and stronger incarnations such as the "axis of evil." In 1995, a former
French ambassador to Turkey and Tunisia, Eric Rouleau (1995:59), asserted that
the "notion that there are rogue states ... has no equivalent in the French political
vocabulary." The diplomatic crisis surrounding the war in Iraq, however, crystal-
lized the dispute over "rogue states" and how to confront them.
1For helpful comments and advice, the author thanks Rafaela Dancygier, Keith Darden, Lilach Gilady, Daniel
Hopkins, Stephen Kosack, Bruce Russett, Tom Saunders, Jeremy Shapiro, Philip Towle, Stephen Watts, the anony-
mous reviewers, and the editors as well as participants in the Yale World Politics Workshop, April 2003, where an
earlier version of this essay was presented. The author is also grateful to the National Science Foundation for the
support of a Graduate Research Fellowship and the Brookings Institution for a Brookings Research Fellowship.
Despite its persistence at the forefront of US foreign policy in the post-Cold War
era, the international relations literature has paid relatively little attention to the
"rogue state" debate. This oversight is surprising given questions surrounding
"rogue states" that should be interesting to political scientists and policymakers
alike. The concept of a "rogue state" and the controversy it has provoked raise two
puzzles for international relations theory. The first concerns the "rogues" them-
selves: Is there such a thing as a "rogue state," that is, a state that lies outside the
bounds of "normal" international relations? Or is it simply a new label for the
enemies of great powers? The second puzzle stems from European resistance to the
idea that "rogue states" exist at all. Who gets to decide whether "rogue states" exist
and, if they do, which states qualify? How can we explain the label's persistence in
the face of European opposition? Can any state with sufficient power use this lan-
guage effectively? To what extent must states agree on common criteria for "rogue
states"? Can reasonable states, including great powers, disagree over the definition
and boundaries of international society? Such contestation is not unique to the post-
September 11 period, but has been an important feature of the transatlantic dis-
agreement about "rogue states" since the end of the Cold War (on the continuity of
transatlantic tensions, see Lundestad 2003; Gordon and Shapiro 2004:chapter 1).
To answer these questions, this essay brings international relations theory to bear
on the "rogue state" debate, but with a theoretical twist: it examines the mirror
image of the "rogue state" issue. That is, the essay aims to identify the entity from
which these states have allegedly been cast out and who gets to set the membership
criteria. One reason that the "rogue state" issue is so difficult to pin down is its
slippery nature as a category, despite the universal standards that it implies. Most
writing on rogue states hones in on the behavior of "rogues," on inconsistencies
between criteria for designating "rogues" and the actual "rogue state" list, or on
how best to deal with "rogues" (Klare 1995; Tanter 1998; Rubin 1999; Hoyt 2000;
Litwak 2000, 2001; Henriksen 2001; Caprioli and Trumbore 2003, 2005).
Instead, the present essay focuses on exclusion from what has variously been
called the "international system," "international society," "international communi-
ty," and even the "family of nations." These terms are frequently but imprecisely
employed in the political science literature (Johnston 2003:8). Is there such a thing
as international society, distinct from the international system and, if so, does the
society have boundaries? Are those boundaries changeable and, if so, who has the
right to change them? What if the basis of international society is contested? Can
international society be exclusionary?
To answer these questions, this essay uses the debate over the designation of
"rogue state" as an analytical lens to assess the ability of international relations
theory to accommodate disagreement over the basis and boundaries of interna-
tional society. Accordingly, the essay will examine the "rogue state" label and the
larger issue of defining international society through the prisms of three theoretical
approaches: realism, social constructivism (along with the English School), and
liberalism. In framing the problem in terms of exclusion from the group of "nor-
mal" states, we will ask three basic questions of each theory:
This essay will proceed as follows: (1) present the history of the "rogue state"
debate, making the case for recasting the debate in terms of exclusion from in-
ternational politics; (2) evaluate how realism, social constructivism (and the closely
related English School), and liberalism contribute to our understanding of the
debate over "rogues" and the competing bases of international society; and (3)
conclude with a discussion of how a synthesis of power, shared ideas, and variation
in state preferences and behavior can provide an agenda for future research,
building on the idea of the state as "norm entrepreneur." In the process, it is the
intent of the author to demonstrate that an approach that combines constructivist
insights to the role of ideas within states with the state-level variation found in
liberalism is a fruitful area of future research. Throughout the theoretical sections,
the essay will use the debate over "rogue states" and the transatlantic crisis over
how to confront Iraq to underscore theoretical issues. Although the Iraq crisis has
interesting connections to the "rogue state" question, it is important to keep in
mind that the concept of a "rogue state" long predates the George W. Bush ad-
ministration and was, in fact, forcefully employed by the Clinton administration.
Beyond the Iraq war, the recent reemergence of the Iranian nuclear issue dem-
onstrates the enduring relevance of the problem. This longevity is a useful starting
point to explore the idea of "rogue states."
90
80
70
S60
' 50
S40
30
20
10
Transatlantic Disagreement
Many European countries, however, begged to differ (Haass 1999; Gordon and
Shapiro 2004:38-44). In the mid-1990s, when the transatlantic debate on how to
deal with Iraq (and other "rogues") centered on whether sanctions or cautious
engagement was the best policy, several European countries actively pursued links
with "rogues" (Tanter 1998; Haass and O'Sullivan 2000). In Iraq, France contin-
ually criticized the Anglo-US embargo and in 2000, together with Russia, delib-
erately broke the ban on flights into Iraq without waiting for UN authorization in
what a Le Monde article (Naim 2000) described as the politics of "des petits faits
accomplis" (see also Hurd 2005 for a discussion of the erosion of the sanctions
regime against Libya through similar violations, albeit from mostly smaller states).
In the Iranian case, the European Union (EU) took a more conciliatory approach to
Iran and strongly resisted US pressure for containment.
Much of Europe saw the US tendency toward coercion as unduly harsh (see, for
example, Rudolf 1999:86). In response, some US observers and officials criticized
the European Union's preference for engagement as mere cover for continuing
lucrative trading with countries like Iran. Whatever the motives behind European
disagreement, the United States government remained frustrated. As Under Sec-
retary of State Stuart Eizenstat (1997) put it in Congressional testimony, "some of
our allies do not seem to share our sense of urgency in confronting Iran's dan-
gerous behavior and convincing the new Iranian government of the need for
change." In 1996, US frustration with the European Union boiled over when the
US Congress passed two controversial pieces of legislation, the Helms-Burton Act
and the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, notable for their provisions allowing sanctions
against foreign investors dealing with Cuba, Iran, or Libya. These laws caused a
major trade dispute between the United States and the European Union, though
eventually President Clinton waived the provisions on third-country penalties. The
controversy highlighted not only the transatlantic tensions but also the limits, even
before September 11, on the ability of the United States to impose its ideas about
how to deal with "rogues." The 2004 agreement between Iran and Britain, France,
and Germany, under which Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program in return
for negotiations on trade, returned the sanctions versus engagement debate to the
fore. The debate remains salient as European powers struggle to keep Iran com-
mitted to the agreement.
How can we account for this disagreement among the transatlantic allies? Before
a club can exclude members, it must have membership criteria for those that are
allowed in and some sort of process for setting those criteria, even if they are only
prohibitions rather than active requirements. Reversing the "rogue state" question
gives us better analytical leverage over the problem. If we stipulate that the "in-
ternational system" encompasses all states, do subsets exist? Popularly known as the
"international community" or the "family of nations," the term "international so-
ciety" is favored by academics, particularly those writing in the English School
(Butterfield and Wight 1966; Bull 1977; Buzan 1993) or constructivist vein (Finne-
more 1996), to indicate states with more in common than simply their existence.
But as confusion and disagreement about "rogue states" in the 1990s indicates, the
boundaries of "international society" are not fixed. Thinking in terms of different
international societies based on issues such as terrorism or WMD proliferation
allows for different criteria for exclusion from such international societies as well as
for disagreement about whom to exclude. Although terrorism and WMD prolif-
eration are two prominent and relatively enduring criteria, there are other plau-
sible possibilities, such as democratic governance or respect for human rights.
Finally, posing the problem as one of exclusion more readily segues into the issue
of who has the ability to define the terms of exclusion, thus putting the "rogue
state" issue into a broader theoretical and geopolitical context and addressing the
second puzzle concerning transatlantic disagreement. The Iraq crisis in 2003 was
the final stage in a long dispute over threats and how to confront them, highlighting
the importance of both power and ideas. Throughout the 1990s, the United States
sought to isolate "rogues" through sanctions and occasionally military force,
whereas many European Union countries sought to engage the very same
"rogues." The "rogue state" debate is not just about what words US policymak-
ers use, but about who has the ability to shape the international agenda and how
they choose to shape it.
Thus, even though the semantic debates, both domestic and transatlantic, are
interesting, the words themselves are less important than the contested boundaries
of international politics that they suggest. The term "rogue state" and its variants
are undeniably rhetorical devices, and they are perhaps even intended to be sloppy
or vague, but real debates lie behind them. As the following discussion will dem-
onstrate, international relations theory has much to say about whether boundaries
exist and who has the right to shape them.
Realism
The identification of a new class of threats arising from "rogue states" would seem
to be ripe for analysis from a realist perspective. Indeed, the two criteria associated
with the "rogue" label, WMD proliferation and support for terrorism, concern
externally threatening behavior. Does realism shed useful light on this issue?
Somewhat surprisingly, the answer is largely no. Realism comes in several va-
rieties, each of which makes slightly different assumptions about state behavior.
Classical realists such as Hans Morgenthau (see Morgenthau and Thompson 1985)
focus on the power-seeking aspects of human nature; neorealists such as Kenneth
Waltz (1979) focus on the fear induced by the anarchic nature of international
relations; offensive realists such as John Mearsheimer (2001) emphasize how max-
imizing power through calculated aggression makes states more secure in an an-
archic world; and defensive realists such as Jack Snyder (1991) stress how states try
to maintain the existing balance of power. (For a review of realist approaches, see
Brooks 1997.) These theories also vary in the extent to which they emphasize the
constraining effects of the structure of the international system rather than do-
mestic or individual-level considerations. Despite their differences, most realists
agree on the inherently anarchic and conflictual nature of international relations
and on the importance of power, defined in terms of material capabilities. They also
emphasize great power competition, again in terms of material power, rather than
threats from smaller powers or competition over normative or ideational issues.
Existing realist arguments have little to say about "rogues" as sources of threat and
as states that lie outside an international society or, for that matter, about how to
resolve conflicts over the basis of international society.
A particularly stark picture emerges from neorealism, which focuses on the
structure of the international system. According to Kenneth Waltz (1979:97), the
anarchic nature of the international system constrains all states to behave in
the same way--states are "functionally undifferentiated" and are "distinguished
primarily by their greater or lesser capabilities for performing similar tasks." Given
that the international system is anarchic, states must act according to the principle
of "self-help." As Stephen Brooks (1997:450) has put it, in neorealist theory "states
are shaped by the mere possibility of conflict." Given that all states behave
according to the same logic of self-help and that all states must be viewed with
suspicion, there is either no such thing as a "rogue state" or, put differently, all
states are potential "rogues." There is no role for shared ideas, rules, or norms in
this model; anarchy accounts for the character of the system. For Waltz, there is no
higher form of international organization beyond the system and, therefore, no
such thing as international society. The question of whether the United States, as
the dominant state in the system, gets to define international society is largely
irrelevant for Waltz (2000), who continued to predict a decade after the Cold War
ended that unipolarity would eventually give way to a balance of power and mul-
tipolarity.
Those realists, like Waltz, who focus on the structure of the international system
and the distribution of material power within it, might reasonably ask if the shift in
US policy toward "rogue states" is the product of the end of the Cold War. During
the 1990s, however, as the "rogue state" debate took a prominent place on the
policy agenda, much of the debate going on among realists centered on unipolarity
and whether another great power or coalition would emerge to balance US he-
gemony (see, among others, Mearsheimer 1990; Layne 1993; Wohlforth 1999). Of
course, "rogues" did not have a major place on the research agenda of other
mainstream theories either, and realists did weigh in once the invasion of Iraq
became the center of debate (Mearsheimer and Walt 2003a, 2003b; see also Jervis
2003:380-385 for a discussion of how realist arguments relate to the Bush Doc-
trine). But realists have continued to emphasize great power military competition
(Mearsheimer 2001), which makes their approach particularly unsuitable for the
question of "rogue states" in the Third World (for an exception, see Lieber 1998).
Interestingly, Waltz does not mention "rogue states" at all in his 2000 article, does
not refer to Iraq or Iran by name, and only mentions North Korea twice in passing.
He does not discuss terrorism and mentions nuclear proliferation largely in the
context of Japan.
On the question of defining an international society, some versions of realism,
including pre-Waltzian variants, provide a richer model that leaves room for
other forms of organization within anarchy. Hans Morgenthau's classical realism
is perhaps best known for its emphasis on power, but much of the second half of
his landmark study explores limitations on power through "morality, mores, and
law," which can "delimit, regulate, and civilize the struggle for power among
nations" (Morgenthau and Thompson 1985:247) and the development of a "world
community" that can mitigate conflict (Morgenthau and Thompson 1985:
chapter 30). In his classic study of the nineteenth-century Congress system, A
World Restored, Henry Kissinger (1964) details how the great powers constructed a
"legitimate" international order after 1815. Robert Gilpin (1981:27-34) also
explores elements of the international system, including the "form of control"
that constrains behavior, which may stem from hegemonic dominance, and
includes a "set of rights and rules that govern or at least influence the inter-
actions among states." Gilpin (1981:35) finds that "in part, rights and rules rest on
common values and interests and are generated by cooperative action among
states."
Other recent versions of realism, which accept Waltz's (1986:329) assertion that
his emphasis on structure explains "a small number of big and important things"
such as the superior stability of bipolar in contrast with multipolar systems, have
built on his model by exploring its implications for foreign policy. Such scholars
focus on whether states balance against threats (Walt 1987), bandwagon with the
stronger side to gain material profit (Schweller 1994), or "pass the buck," effectively
Even Robert Kagan (2003:3, 53), who has emphasized the importance of the
power gap between the United States and Europe in explaining why "on major
strategic and international questions today, Americans are from Mars and Euro-
peans are from Venus," concludes that the full explanation for the current schism
"lies somewhere in the realm of ideology, in European attitudes not just toward
defense spending but toward power itself." For Kagan, ideas about how power
should be used and threats should be met are just as important as actual power.
Kagan (2003:53) asserts that Europeans have turned away from the use of power in
the wake of two bloody wars, but they also continue to rely on the United States to
protect their "postmodern paradise" (see also Gordon and Shapiro 2004:57-58). As
a result, Europeans do not perceive "rogue states" to be urgent priorities. When
Europeans do address the issue, however, they prefer to use indirect means and
strategies of engagement rather than confrontation. Although power is an impor-
tant consideration in explaining the debate over "rogue states," ideas are necessary
to provide the context in which states use their power.
political fabric that embraces the whole of mankind." These universal principles
and an all-inclusive scope are at odds with the possibility of exclusion. Other
English School scholars are more explicit in defining the origins and potential
limits of international society, relying on cultural explanations or, like Bull, a
minimal interpretation of international society based on sovereignty. Martin
Wight (1977:114) explicitly inquires into the "geographical limits" and the
"boundaries" of the international system. He puts a particular emphasis on the
cultural origins and limits of what he calls the "states-system," with "two con-
centric circles, European and universal" (Wight 1977:118). More recently, Barry
Buzan (1993:343) has rejected this cultural basis for international society, arguing
instead that international society emerges functionally, from mechanisms such as
the exchange of ambassadors and the making of agreements that states use to
interact regularly. This argument still leaves the "values of security, contract, and
property rights" as the basis of a minimal international society, just as they are for
Bull; the question of how debates over the content of international society might
arise or be resolved is not discussed (Buzan 1993:343).
One interesting question that arises from the English School's notion of in-
ternational society is whether there can be multiple international societies, pos-
sibly existing at the same time. The tendency within the English School to focus
on basic norms of sovereignty and diplomatic interaction leaves this question only
partly answered. Bull (1977:41) notes that during the Cold War "the United
States and the Soviet Union were inclined to speak of each other as heretics or
outcasts beyond the pale," but they still maintained diplomatic relations. This
vision still rests on basic, fundamental values that can survive even in periods of
superpower hostility. It does not explore contestation over other values.
Buzan (1993:337) goes much further, arguing explicitly that it is "possible for
more than one international or 'world' society to coexist or for one part of the
system to have an international society while other parts do not." There may also
be significant variation in the depth and extent of shared values within the sys-
tem. He (Buzan 1993:349) also notes that in the post-Cold War era:
[a] small number of pariah states are partiallyexcluded by the refusalof many
others to accord them diplomaticrecognition.A few statessuch as North Korea
and Myanmar(Burma) place themselves on the outer fringes of international
society by accepting little more than the basics of diplomaticrecognition and
exchange.
Writing before the "rogue state" debate fully emerged, Buzan does not deal with
the contestation over the definition of international society that took place in the
1990s. Ultimately, he falls back on the mutual recognition of sovereignty as "the
defining boundary between international system and society" (Buzan 1993:345).
Thus, he still seeks to explain the ever-present underpinnings of state interaction
rather than exploring what happens when states disagree about those underpin-
nings or have alternative visions of international society.
Although Bull and others in the English School do inject norms, ideas, and
notions of order into realist theory, the concept of international disagreement over
the definition and criteria for membership in international society is difficult to
reconcile with universal norms and ideas. Their vision of international society,
defined by recognition of sovereignty and diplomacy, provides little guidance be-
yond these basic issues (though for a more recent application of Bull's theory to the
Iraq war that touches briefly on transatlantic disagreement over the management of
international security, see Press-Barnathan 2004:especially 203-205). The United
States has not had diplomatic relations with North Korea since the end of the
Korean War nor with Iran since 1980. But several European countries have es-
tablished diplomatic relations with North Korea since 2000 (including Britain and
Germany, but not France). Most European states have diplomatic relations with
Iran, though there have been some interruptions (such as the British protest over
the Iranian fatwa on the author Salman Rushdie). How do we interpret this var-
iation?
Social Constructivism.Constructivist approaches to international relations theory
are equipped to tackle a wider variety of potential norms and ideas. Construct-
ivists take aim at realism's assumptions of fixed state interests and self-help logic.
A major starting point for constructivist theories is that actors do not view the
world objectively but instead make decisions on the basis of shared, or intersub-
jective, ideas that become the basis for social order (for reviews of constructivist
studies, see Adler 1997; Finnemore and Sikkink 2001). Social constructivists have
set out to demonstrate that such intersubjective ideas can act as social norms that
constrain the self-help behavior of states, even when security issues are involved
or during wartime (see, among others, Price and Tannenwald 1996; Legro 1997).
Norms and ideas may also define (or redefine) state interests, as Martha Finne-
more's (1996) argument about the role of international organizations in defining
state preferences illustrates (see also Klotz 1995, Finnemore 2003).
Social constructivist arguments often take the form of "constitutive" explana-
tions, "which characterize systems of beliefs and practices that in effect create or
define social objects and actors" (Fearon and Wendt 2002:65; see also Ruggie
1998:22-25). John Ruggie's (1998:188) work on the emergence of sovereignty as
an organizing principle, or the designation of "the right to act as a constitutive
unit of the new political order," is a prominent example that echoes the English
School's emphasis on sovereignty as the basis of international society (though see
Krasner 1999 for an argument against the universality of the post-Westphalian
sovereignty norm). Finnemore (2003:14-15) also explicitly considers her argu-
ment about the changing purpose of military intervention to be constitutive.
But in seeking to demonstrate the empirical reality that social norms exert an
influence on state behavior (Finnemore and Sikkink 2001:397), social construct-
ivists have not yet paid sufficient attention to variation in state behavior and
motivations or to what role power might play in selecting among competing
constitutive principles (though as discussed below, some of Ruggie's work is an
exception). Furthermore, even though constructivists have drawn attention to
the "agent-structure" debate (Wendt 1987), arguing that social structure must be
considered alongside the characteristics of the agents (whether states or individ-
uals) that live within it, in practice they have emphasized structure more than
agency (Checkel 1999:85). Although some (see, for example, Finnemore
1996:24-28) have sought to reclaim a role for agency, structure still has the
central role in constructivist theorizing.
Perhaps the most prominent social constructivist argument, that made by Al-
exander Wendt, illustrates how the emphasis on structure leads some versions of
constructivism to resemble structural realism. Wendt (1992, 1999) engages Waltz
directly and thus aims his argument at the level of the international system.
Wendt argues that anarchy does not inevitably produce a competitive interna-
tional system organized around the self-help principle. The structure of the social
world and the interactions that result from it confer identities and interests on
actors--that is, states--and those identities and interests are changeable. The
structure, "once constructed ... confronts each of its members as an objective
social fact that reinforces certain behaviors and discourages others" (Wendt
1992:411). Wendt (1999:chapter 6) characterizes the three possible realizations of
anarchy as Hobbesian, Lockean, and Kantian, arguing that the international
system can move among all three. Shared ideas can lead to a Hobbesian culture
based on enmity just as logically as they can lead to a Lockean culture based on
rivalry within a basic respect for sovereignty or a Kantian culture based on
friendship and collective security. As the title of Wendt's 1992 article argued,
"anarchy is what states make of it."
ideas and change, constructivists have paid less attention to problems of power
and state action.
Bounded Intersubjectivity.A state-level focus on the origins of norms and ideas is
only one aspect of the "rogue state" debate that requires further attention; the
other is the limits on how far ideas are shared. One constructivist argument that
does combine the role of power with a state-level account of the origins and limits
of shared ideas as the basis of social order is John Ruggie's work on post-World
War II international economic regimes. In his essay on "embedded liberalism,"
Ruggie (1998:64) elucidates a conception of authority in the international system
as the combination of power and "legitimate social purpose." The social purpose
dimension, usually ignored by realists, gives international order its "generative
grammar" and its "content" (Ruggie 1998:64). In the postwar international eco-
nomic compromise, the combination of multilateralism and domestic interven-
tionism "reflected the shared legitimacy of a set of social objectives to which the
industrial world had moved unevenly but ... 'as a single entity"' (Ruggie
1998:76). By limiting the scope of these social objectives to the "industrial world,"
Ruggie describes how other states came to accept these objectives as the new basis
for order and implies that shared ideas have boundaries.
The power dimension, usually ignored by constructivists, ensures that the
dominant state in the system-the so-called hegemon-will be the driving force
in international politics. Thus, as Ruggie argues, the United States was able to
define and project its own social purpose within a set of "social objectives" shared
by a subset of the international system: the "industrial world." The multilateral
element of the compromise originated in the United States, and Ruggie
(1998:73) calls it an "achievement of historic proportions for the United States
to win adherence to the principle of multilateralism, particularly in trade." This
acceptance was the result of "the power and perseverance of the United States"
(Ruggie 1998:76). In another essay, Ruggie (1998:206-217) also locates the or-
igins of ideas at the elite level by focusing on presidential leadership. His argu-
ment, thus, gives a role both to power and to the hegemon's identity and
preferences-in effect, allowing for a state to be a norm entrepreneur. As Ruggie
(1998:14, emphasis in original) puts it, "contra neorealism, I suggest that the fact
of Americanhegemony was every bit as important as the fact of American hegemony
in shaping the post-World War II international order."
Ruggie's argument suggests that theory must attend to both the origins and
limits of shared ideas. This limited scope of shared ideas can be thought of as
"bounded intersubjectivity."2 Although shared ideas can have a powerful effect
on behavior, the set of states that share those ideas is often bounded, even when
those who hold the idea (or the nature of the idea itself) imply that it should be
universal. The term is intended to convey two aspects of "boundedness," both of
which reflect the puzzles surrounding "rogue states." First, the set of states sub-
scribing to an idea may be bounded because the ideas themselves may be defined
in exclusionary terms. Thus, the idea of a "rogue state," defined in terms of
WMD proliferation and support for terrorism, purports to specify standards of
behavior that states must subscribe to as a condition of entry into a society. Shared
ideas may incorporate the concept of a boundary between those who subscribe
and those who do not. This exclusivity may be an inherent and deliberate feature
of the shared ideas, a feature similar to defining an "in-group" in relation to an
"out-group," or enemy, in order to increase in-group cohesion. Such deliberate
exclusivity is an enduring theme in the sociology of conflict (Simmel 1955:chap-
ter 3), in the literature on nationalism and violence (Brubaker and Laitin
2This term is not directly related to Herbert Simon's (1957) concept of "bounded rationality," which refers to the
limits on human rationality. Simon's concept refers to the limits on cognitive processes, whereas "bounded inter-
subjectivity" refers to the boundaries on shared ideas among different actors.
1998:433-434; Snyder 2000), and in arguments about states or leaders that de-
liberately define their foreign policy in terms of a distinct enemy or "oth-
er"-even to the point of manipulating or exacerbating threats (Wendt 1994;
Gagnon 1994-1995; Barnett 1996:408; Christensen 1996). Echoing the notion of
the "threat blank," in this view the collapse of the Soviet Union deprived the
United States of its "other" and led to "ambiguity in US interests" (Jepperson,
Wendt, and Katzenstein 1996:60).
Such deliberate exclusivity is not necessary. Those who seek to advance a par-
ticular set of ideas may aim them at all states, excluding those who do not sub-
scribe at a given time while leaving open the possibility of letting them back into
the fold. This reformist option arguably applies to "rogue states" and to the
example of Libya, which is normalizing relations with the great powers. The
crucial point here is that there are limits on the size of the group that shares
ideas, regardless of whether that group intends to be forever exclusive or to
ultimately extend its ideas universally. This facet of boundedness is closely related
to arguments about which states subscribe to, comply with, or internalize a given
norm.
A second aspect of boundedness, however, arises from the possibility that
states-even major powers-may disagree over which ideas, drawn from a larg-
er set, should be salient. This characteristic of boundedness could in principle be
compatible with constructivism's concept of constitutive rules: the particular set
of ideas that is constitutive of an international society is not always obvious and
could be contested. Power will have an important role to play in determining
which set of ideas becomes salient. When we move beyond the minimal spec-
ification of international society conceived of by the English School--recognition
of sovereignty, respect for diplomatic interaction, and other basic functions-to
more complicated norms and rules, it is possible to conceive of states, even within
an already identified subgroup, disagreeing over new definitions of, or refine-
ments to, international society. Thus, it is important to understand not only the
origins of any ideas that are being considered as a basis for international society
but also the distribution of power among the states that might advance those
ideas. Some states may voluntarily stay out of the group defined by a set of
boundedly intersubjective ideas; others, even major powers, may actively contest
the ideas or propose alternatives; still others may have no choice but to reluc-
tantly tolerate or even sign on, perhaps eventually becoming bound by the ideas.
It is also interesting to note that including both power and ideas lead to two
mechanisms for change in the basis of international society: change in either the
distribution of power or in the foundation of the shared ideas within the orig-
inating state.
How might this argument bear on "rogue states"? One could argue that the
end of the Cold War, like the end of World War II, provided the opportunity for
normative or ideational change (on defining order after major wars, see Iken-
berry 2001). The United States, as the dominant power, has had to assume a
disproportionate burden for enforcing norms in international society and thus
has had a disproportionate influence in shaping that society. It has sought to
define international society in terms of WMD nonproliferation and the renun-
ciation of terrorism. Given that, in principle, these two security issues affect all
states, it is not especially surprising that the United States has aimed this norm at
all members of the international system.
Certainly this universal aim does not mean that the norm will, in fact, be
accepted by all states, as "rogue state" behavior and European dissent demon-
strate. European dissent highlights a crucial difference between the post-World
War II international economic consensus described by Ruggie and the US at-
tempt to define "rogues" in the post-Cold War era. As John Ikenberry and
Charles Kupchan (1990:285) have argued, "hegemonic control emerges when
foreign elites buy into the hegemon's vision of international order and accept it as
their own." European countries, despite initial resistance, accepted the normative
compromise after World War II partly as a result of US sensitivity to European
concerns, though the compromise still represented an exercise of US power
(Barnett and Duvall 2005:63-64). Europe has been much less accepting of US
dominance in the post-Cold War era.
"Rogue states" might be a way to reconceptualize the international society
previously defined by the Soviet enemy, though the universalist rhetoric of ex-
cluding "rogues" makes such an interpretation less plausible. But even if
"rogues" are simply the new "other" for a society previously based on fighting
the Soviets, it is important not only to understand how the United States seeks to
redefine international society, but also how European resistance may lead to
disagreement over such redefinition. Yet, there remains the possibility that if
certain key states should decide to promote these norms, they will become a new
salient boundary for international society, with states that fail to comply ostracized
as "rogues."
The vociferous European criticism of what has been perceived as Bush uni-
lateralism perhaps may reflect the degree to which Europe has come to expect
multilateral behavior from the United States, though in the Clinton years most
European countries often declined to help or even hindered multilateral efforts
to isolate "rogues." As the most powerful state in the system, however, the United
States can afford to choose an unpopular principle and stand alone, hoping to
persuade others to adopt it. Moreover, the United States can afford to make
exceptions according to its interests, as in the case of Pakistan, known to be a
WMD proliferator. But it is also entirely possible that the idea will fail to define a
new international society and that the United States will have to exercise power
alone rather than benefiting from the cooperation of allies who share its ideas
intersubjectively. And, yet, even in such a case, Europeans must take the idea of
"rogue states" into account in their international relations until they accept it,
defeat the idea outright, or the United States decides to abandon it.
The constructivist focus on ideas is an attractive way of tackling the "rogue
state" issue and the struggle to define international society. It allows for an in-
ternational society based on shared ideas even though the essence of the problem
suggests that there is variation in state behavior and a prominent role for agency.
Constructivism has not yet fully addressed the second two questions posed in the
introduction to this essay concerning whether international society can be ex-
clusionary or who excludes. Theories such as Wendt's imply that international
society is encompassing; other theories explore variation in norm adherence or
compliance. But, as discussed, this variation is not quite the same as true ex-
clusivity or normative contestation. The next section describes how liberal in-
ternational relations theory contributes to an understanding of the "rogue state"
debate, before discussing how these disparate elements might be synthesized in
future research.
Liberalism
There are two features of the "rogue state" phenomenon that evoke liberal inter-
national relations theory. First, the very idea of a "rogue state" implies some di-
chotomy between the group of "normal" states and the "rogues." Second, many
European policymakers have dissented, suggesting multiple visions of how inter-
national society comes to be defined. Liberalism has a long and somewhat dis-
jointed history within international relations theory and has often been stigmatized
by its old association with the utopianism of the interwar period (see Carr 1964).
But modern liberal theory is a distinct alternative to realism and social construct-
ivism insofar as it focuses on the preferences and varying domestic properties of
individual states.
Liberalism is often associated with the literature on the democratic peace, which
posits that liberal democracies have made a separate peace based on Kantian prin-
ciples. This separate peace can be thought of as one incarnation of an international
society based on a limited set of shared ideas, or bounded intersubjectivity. Indeed,
Bruce Russett and John Oneal (2001:302) note at the end of their study of the
Kantian peace that "some states remain outside the Kantian system and can be
dangerous." The Kantian peace contains some transnational elements such as trade
and international organizations, but domestic politics lie at its core. Michael Doyle
(1986), who revived the study of Kantian philosophy in international relations
scholarship, emphasizes the specific substantive content of liberalism as a compact
between citizens and the state. Hence, in international relations:
liberal states assume that nonliberalstates, which do not rest on free consent,
are not just. Because nonliberal governments are in a state of aggression
with their own people, their foreign relations become for liberal governments
deeply suspect. In short, fellow liberalsbenefit from a presumption of amity;
nonliberals suffer from a presumption of enmity.(Doyle 1986:1161; see also
Owen 1997)
This statement is a little too strong for the "rogue state" question given that the
United States certainly has not branded all nonliberal states as "rogues." But this
theory does keep some states beyond the boundaries of "normal" international
relations based on ideas, suggesting that international society can be exclusionary. It
may even imply that two international societies can exist at the same time. Inter-
estingly along these lines, we note the emphasis on regime type in the Bush ad-
ministration's 2002 National Security Strategy (see also Jervis 2003:366-369). Only
certain WMD proliferators or supporters of terrorism are singled out in the Strategy
(Bush 2002:14): those that "brutalize their own people" and "reject basic human
values and hate the United States and everything for which it stands" (see also Lake
1994:46).
Doyle's vision of a separate liberal peace is based mostly on a just, rights-based
connection between state and people, not necessarily other forms of state behavior
related to international security. Furthermore, Doyle does not address hegemony
or power relations within the liberal zone, thus providing little guidance for the
second puzzle concerning differing conceptions of international society. The "rogue
state" question has highlighted discord among the liberal democracies, though the
democratic peace itself appears in little danger of shattering. The more recent
democratic peace literature (Russett and Oneal 2001:300-305) has begun to ad-
dress the question of hegemony and multilateralism, though it has not explored
competing definitions of international society.
Pulling back slightly from the substantive content of liberalism, we can take lib-
eralism more generally to mean a state-level focus on domestic variation and pref-
erences. In this vein, Andrew Moravcsik (1997) has articulated a version of
liberalism based on domestic preferences. Moravcsik (1997:525) argues that one
form that liberal international relations theory could take is "ideational liberalism,"
in which domestic identities and values determine state preferences. His theory,
however, does not adequately specify where state preferences come from and is too
quick to dismiss elite ideas. As Ikenberry (2003:539) points out, "the United States
is so powerful that the ideologies and policy views of a few key decision makers in
Washington can have a huge impact on the global order."
But Moravcsik's focus on domestic politics, purposive state action, and variation
in state preferences is an important indictment of system-level approaches. Liber-
alism is well placed to tackle the question of competing visions of international
society--or variation in state norm entrepreneurship. In the period of the "rogue
state" debate and the Iraq crisis, alternative conceptions of international society
have arisen. Some countries, especially in Europe, seek to define an alternative
1. Summaryof Theories
TABLE
(see also Barkin 2003 and the responses to that piece edited by Jackson 2004 on the
possibility of a "realist constructivism").
There remains more work to do, however, with regard to individualistic, ideas-
based approaches. Moreover, although material capabilities are not the most useful
predictors of state behavior in the case of the "rogue-state"debate, power remains an
important factor in determining the fate of ideas. The argument made in this essay is
that, in order to adequately specify the salient substantive issues defining a bounded
international society, the ideas originating in powerful states must be treated sys-
tematically as must the limits of such ideas. This argument suggests that a framework
for understanding the "rogue state" debate requires a synthesis of ideas, the power
considerations that describe the origins and spread of these ideas, and variations in
both state preferences and purposes and in the acceptance of new ideas as the basis of
order. Building on Finnemore and Sikkink's (1998) model of norm development, we
can imagine the state acting as a norm entrepreneur, even as we must also consider
how the ideas originating within states may or may not become intersubjective norms
as they propagate out from the state. Future research should push existing points of
tangency between power, ideas, and state-level variation even further by examining
(1) the origins of ideas within states; (2) processes of diffusion or imposition of ideas,
taking power into account; and (3) variation in receptivity to new ideas, defining the
boundaries of intersubjectivity.
role of individuals' ideas in shaping the purpose of US policy toward Russia. Given
the central, agenda-setting role of executive leadership even within a highly frag-
mented state such as the United States (Krasner 1978:11; Russett 1990:chapter 4;
Howell 2003:103-106), research on the sources and impact of elite ideas concern-
ing how to employ power (building on earlier work such as George 1969) might
prove useful, especially in explaining variation in how states act as agents of norm-
building. Such work need not close off the possibility that nonstate or societal actors
might also try to influence elites. The concept of the state, or government elites, as
norm entrepreneurs should complement existing studies of nonstate actors.
The "rogue state" case and the war in Iraq provide an impetus for this kind of
research. Gordon and Shapiro (2004:161) argue that elite leadership played a vital
role in the Iraq crisis. Whereas domestic political considerations may have influenced
French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schr6der, Brit-
ain's Tony Blair supported the United States in defiance of British public opinion. Ivo
Daalder and James Lindsey (2003) have proposed that George W. Bush personally
led a revolution in US foreign policy. Although it is still too early to understand the
genesis of the war with all the tools of empirical analysis, it seems clear that elite
ideas-rather than simply preferences induced by material power-played an im-
portant role in the decision to attack Iraq. The war itself is too costly to dismiss as
driven purely by material interests; furthermore, journalistic evidence suggests a
strong ideational component to the administration's Iraq policy stemming from a
small inner circle of foreign policy elites (see Keller 2002; Beaumont et al. 2003; for a
more skeptical view, see Economist 2003). Several in this group were members of the
George H.W. Bush administration and were instrumental in the initial development
of the "rogue state" idea. Robert Jervis (2003:366) has argued that the Bush Doctrine
itself was a product of both "idiosyncratic and structural factors." Even within the
"rogue state" framework, North Korea and Iran arguably present more pressing
threats. Yet, the United States chose to attack Iraq, prompting commentators such as
Thomas Friedman (2002) and even Richard Haass (2003), Bush's director of the
State Department Policy Planning Staff during the lead-up to the war, to contend that
the invasion was a "war of choice."
Research on elite ideas need not concentrate only on principled beliefs or beliefs
traditionally associated with the substantive content of liberalism such as free trade
or democratic institutions (Finnemore and Sikkink 2001:403 also make this point).
A promising area is the study of causal ideas, or "beliefs about cause-effect rela-
tionships which derive authority from the shared consensus of recognized elites"
(Goldstein and Keohane 1993:10). Scholars have linked causal ideas about how to
achieve goals to observable-and varying--behavior in the international arena
(McNamara 1999; Darden forthcoming).
Empirically, causal beliefs may have played an important role in the transatlantic
split over both "rogue states" and how to confront Iraq. As discussed earlier, a
remarkable feature of the "rogue state" concept is its longevity in US domestic
politics, spanning several administrations. This continuity suggests that the differ-
ences in the administrations' approaches to "rogues" are differences of means and
limits rather than ends. The Clinton administration was much more willing-and
indeed sought--to build a consensus for its "rogue state" policy. But on a fun-
damental level the United States has consistently embraced a harder-line approach
whereas the Europeans have sought to use the tools of engagement with "rogues,"
suggesting differences in beliefs about how to confront such threats.
It is possible to view the transatlantic split over the Iraq war as a clash of causal
beliefs. Although the operational link between al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein's
regime was dubious, it seems clear that key US policymakers regarded regime
change in Iraq--in effect, eliminating a "rogue state" and remaking it into a com-
pliant member of a US-defined international society--as the best way to address
the threats facing the United States and its allies. The administration was quite
willing to pursue this belief alone. Most US allies recognized the threat from Iraq,
but they did not see regime change in Iraq as the right way to address the threat,
preferring instead to pursue inspections through the United Nations. As Gordon
and Shapiro (2004:146) note, even though French President Chirac may have had
domestic reasons to oppose the United States, France "genuinely thought the war
was a bad idea and worried that a Western occupation of Iraq could turn into a
quagmire that would serve as a recruiting tool for al Qaeda." Notably, as mentioned
earlier, even some realists argued that containment and deterrence would be pref-
erable strategies for confronting Saddam (Mearsheimer and Walt 2003a, 2003b). A
dispute over causal beliefs-how best to meet terrorist and WMD threats-thus
threatened to undermine shared ideas about the threats themselves. Kagan
(2003:60) hints at this possibility when he describes how Europeans apply their own
post-World War II multilateralism "with the evangelic zeal of converts," preferring
engagement strategies even with "rogues." But even though France and Germany
could make things harder for the United States, they could not stop the invasion.
Far from being irrelevant, power played a central role in the crisis.
250
200
• I US
150 I "
,
, ---UK
- - - France
S 100 -- ---Germany
I
50-
But there is room for further exploration of the role of power in ideational and
normative change. Including the role of power would seem to be a natural ex-
tension of models of "norm entrepreneurship." However a potential norm orig-
inates (even if it is simply an idea initially accepted by only one state), its fate may be
profoundly shaped by a powerful sponsor. One could imagine an existing inter-
national society based on a set of boundedly intersubjective ideas but facing the
challenge of a new set of ideas that seeks to redefine the terms of the particular
international society. Shifts in power within the international system as a whole
could have important effects on such redefinitions as arguably happened within the
society of Western democratic states after the collapse of the Soviet threat.
Yet, even if the "rogue state" label encounters resistance, its very use may rep-
resent an exercise of a different kind of power. An alternative conception of power
in Barnett and Duvall's (2005:55-57) typology is "productive power," which seeks
to define actors constitutively (as structural power does) through less direct prac-
tices, such as the diffusion of knowledge or discourse. Barnett and Duvall (2005:56)
specifically mention the term "rogue" as one in a series of "categories of classi-
fication" that are manifestations of "productive power." To see how the idea of a
"rogue state" diffused from the United States to other countries, consider, for
example, the path of the phrase "rogue state" through the world media. Figure 2
charts the number of uses of the phrase "rogue state" or "rogue states"-or its local
translation-in two leading daily newspapers each from the United States, Britain,
France, and Germany.3
3The US search included the New YorkTimes and the WashingtonPost; for Britain, the Financial Times and The
Guardian; for Germany, the FrankfurterAllgememne Zeitung and the SziddeutscheZeitung; and for France, Le Monde and
Le Figaro. Except for the German newspapers, the search covered the period from January 1, 1990 to September 10,
2001 because the phrase "rogue state" only really hit the US mainstream in 1990 and because here we are primarily
concerned with the origins and initial diffusion of the term. The search was conducted via LexisNexis,supplemented
by a search of the Le Figaro website (http://www.lefigaro.fr) because LexisNexiscoverage of Le Figaro begins in 1997.
Data points for Germany were not included for 1990-1992 because the FrankfurterAllgemeine Zeitung electronic
coverage begins in 1993 and the SsiddeutscheZeitung in 1991. But given the dearth of mentions in the French papers
prior to 1993 and in the SuiddeutscheZeitung in 1991 and 1992, it seems likely that there would be very few mentions
in Germany between 1990 and 1993. The author is grateful to Rafaela Dancygier for help with the German search.
The number of hits for Britain, Germany, and France lags behind the United
States totals. Mentions in the British press-Britain being the closest ally of the
United States and a frequent military supporter of US operations against Iraq in
the 1990s-track fairly closely with those in the United States, lagging behind by
about a year. But Germany, and especially France, hardly register any mentions at
all until 1996 (Germany) and 1998 (France). Germany had caught up with and even
surpassed the United States by 2001. In German and French news articles, the
phrase often appears in quotation marks or is followed by the English translation
"rogue state." Many articles are highly critical of the phrase, and many refer to the
phrase as a US term. But even though Rouleau, as was mentioned earlier, could
claim in 1995 that there was no French equivalent to "rogue states," by the end of
the decade the phrase had gained a foothold in the diplomatic lexicon of these
European countries. Like it or not, Europeans had to at least consider the pos-
sibility of a "rogue state," even as they continued to resist its legitimacy. More work
by scholars who incorporate the idea of communicative action, including the role of
power in shaping discourse, would be useful in addressing this type of diffusion
(see, for example, Campbell 1998; Risse 2000).
hampering its effectiveness. Recognition of such limits and of the efficacy of mul-
tilateral arrangements may have driven the United States, at least in the 1990s, to
try to convince other major powers to subscribe to its notion of "rogues" even in
the face of resistance. The Bush administration has been much less willing to ac-
commodate the resistance of allies, but, in turn, arguably has paid a price in having
to accept a smaller "coalition of the willing" in Iraq. As Jervis (2003:388) has
pointed out, Europe is unlikely to balance the United States militarily, but it could
provide strong political opposition and, thus, the "the fate of the American design
for world order lies in the hands of its allies." Whatever the mechanisms that
account for acceptance of new bases of order, theories should allow for the pos-
sibility that these processes do not operate uniformly and that ideas may only
spread to a limited number of states, resulting in "bounded intersubjectivity."
None of these theories adequately specifies a microprocess behind the idea of the
"rogue state" and the actual exclusion of some states from international society.
Indeed, this section of the essay has indicated that much work remains to be done
on the role of the state as the originator of new ideas, on variation in how states
might act as agents of normative change, and on the role of power and variation in
responses to it in determining the extent to which such ideas become boundedly
intersubjective. Constructivists who employ a state-level or individual approach,
with their emphasis on intersubjectivity and ideas as causal factors, might fruitfully
collaborate with liberals focusing on variation in state purposes and subsets of states
to tackle the problem of defining international society and identifying the limits of
shared ideas. Any such theorizing must, however, incorporate a role for power.
Conclusion
This essay has argued that international relations theorists should be interested in
the question of whether "rogue states" exist outside the boundaries of international
society and how states contest the definition or redefinition of international society.
So-called rogues are still part of the international system, but even a cursory ex-
amination of their recent history suggests, on a commonsense level, that they do not
have a "normal" role in international relations. As the dominant power in the
system, the United States is responsible for this status. But the designation was not
inevitable. International relations theories that focus only on US material power or
simply on ideas within the United States are indeterminate. Only by understanding
how the United States chooses to wield its power and how other powers respond,
can we understand the evolving basis of a bounded international society. Whether
"rogue states"' status will change or become entrenched depends on the "rogues'"
own behavior and, should it continue unchanged, on the degree to which other
states embrace the "rogue state" formulation.
Libya's admission in 2003 that it had a clandestine WMD program that it planned
to give up, and Muammar el-Qaddafi's apparent wish for some time to come back
into the international fold, may be evidence that "rogue" behavior can change
without regime change (see Anderson 2003; Sanger and Miller 2003). The role of
"rogue state" rhetoric and the Iraq war in Libya's shift remain to be evaluated.
Hurd's (2005) recent study of Libya's strategic manipulation of the United Nation's
role as a legitimate institution of liberal internationalism is an important cautionary
tale. Even if there is widespread agreement among great powers (as there was in
the Libyan case) on how to treat a specific "rogue," weaker powers can still un-
dermine the rhetorical and symbolic power of punishment regimes. Beyond con-
testation within institutions like the United Nations, when great powers disagree
about the very definition of "rogue states" (which is arguably a debate over the very
definition of international society and who gets to define it), weak powers have even
more room to exploit differences among great powers. With the ability of
the United States to use military power against "rogues" now constrained by the
practical difficulties of postwar Iraq, the United States seems more willing to back
European approaches to problems such as Iran's nuclear program, whereas the
European Union has taken a harder line on Iran itself.
The question of how to deal with a "rogue state" also needs reviving. The debate
over the effectiveness of coercive sanctions versus economic and international po-
litical engagement, prominent in the late 1990s, has been lost amid the war in Iraq,
but it is returning to the fore as the Iranian nuclear issue regains a central place on
the international agenda. A theoretical framework for the emergence of a norm that
excludes "rogue states" from international society may provide clues to future
policy, but it could, in turn, benefit from an understanding of whether exclusion
from international society actually works as a strategy to reform "rogue" behavior
or whether inclusion and engagement are better options.
The US strategy of trying to impose its vision of international society unilaterally
on its allies and its enemies alike may yet backfire. But for now, all states must live,
however uncomfortably, with the effects of a US policy that makes WMD prolif-
eration and terrorism the relevant criteria for inclusion in what can be an exclu-
sionary international society.
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