POLICY BRIEF, FEBRUARY 2024

Climate-Conflict Disasters: A Global Threat

Gaining Momentum in Pakistan

IQRA BANO SOHAIL

Chair, International Law

About the Author

Ms. Iqra Bano Sohail completed her LLB (Hons) from the University of London in 2021
and was awarded achievement awards for being one of the highest performing student
around the globe in the subjects of criminal and contract law. With her experience in
the International Law think tank industry, she has worked on various projects such as
developing Pakistan’s First National Action Plan on Business and Human Rights and
reviewing the Counter Terrorism and Anti Money Laundering Regime of Pakistan.
Currently she is working as a Research Associate for International Law at IPRI with
her areas of interests being International Humanitarian Law, Human Rights Law,
Cyber Laws and Water Laws.

About IPRI

The Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) is one of the oldest non-partisan think
tanks on all facets of National Security, including international relations and
international law, strategic studies, governance, public policy, and economic security
in Pakistan. IPRI exemplifies two decades of rigorous and timely analysis of crucial
strategic agendas and inter-governmental processes that influence national and
regional policy community. Recognized for its objectivity and policy relevance, IPRI’s
publications offer current, up-to-date, and high-quality research in the form of
authoritative journals, books, monographs, and policy briefs. The Institute’s events
vary from seminars on current international and national affairs to large-scale
international conferences that attract renowned leaders, academics, and policymakers
from all over the world. The Institute also house two specialized Chairs for International
Law and Economic Security.

1
 Table of Contents

Executive Summary…………………………..……………………………………………….… 3

I The Global Threat………..…………….……………..………...…………………….…... 4

II I Climate-Conflict Links……………...………………………………………………… 4
The

I The Role Played by Climate Change……………………………. 4

The Role Played by Armed Conflict……………………………… 5

III The Legal Gaps in International Law………………………….………………………… 6

IV The Threat that the Interplay Poses for Pakistan.…...………………………………… 6

Climate Induced Migration……..………………………..……….. 7

Floods and Drought......…………………………………………… 7

Nuclear Security at Risk…………………………………………... 8

Political Instability………………………………………………….. 8

Shortcomings in the Pakistani Legal Framework………………. 8

V Recommendations…………………………………………………………………………. 9

VI Action Matrix………………………………………..……...………………………………. 11

2
 Executive Summary

Issue

Climate change and armed conflict, due to their grave impacts, stand out as
two of the most serious challenges faced by the world today. While they both have
their own standings in generating humanitarian and environmental crises, the interplay
between the two is something that cannot be ignored. This newly accepted
phenomenon is yet to be explicitly recognized under International Law. Pakistan being
a part of the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index 1 must take
measures to deal with the inconsistencies in its legal framework to combat the
emerging threat of climate induced conflicts.

Recommendations

Pakistan has the following available options:

1. Develop an Early Warning System for Disaster Preparedness and Risk

Mitigation
2. Improve Disaster Response and Recovery
3. Increase Funding of the National Disaster Management Authority
4. Update the National Security Policy of Pakistan to Include Climate Induced
Threats
5. Integrate Climate Change Adaptation Measures into the National and
Subnational Policies in the Education Sector
6. Develop A Climate Change Specific National Command and Operation Centre
(NCOC)
7. Improve Infrastructural Climate Resilience
8. Shift Focus Towards Climate Financing

1‘Devastating Floods in Pakistan’ (UNICEF) <https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-floods-

pakistan-2022> accessed 17 January 2024

3
I) The Global Threat

Over the past few decades, the world has witnessed a global shift towards the
acceptance of climate change as a reality. The World Meteorological Organization 2
(WMO) has observed that the past decade i.e. 2011-2020, was the “warmest decade
on record” for land and ocean with increased emissions acting as a catalyst for climate
driven disasters. Such catastrophes, consequently, have much wider impacts on a
state's economic, political and social viability. For instance, the world's costliest
weather disaster, Hurricane Katrina, occurred in 2005, however, the next four costliest
disasters were all witnessed in the past decade alone.

Armed Conflict, on the other hand, has also continued to dominate the world in
recent years. Importantly, the conflicts have grown more intense with the number of
fatalities increasing by 14 percent on a yearly basis3. This signifies the prevalence of
humanitarian, stabilization and reconstruction challenges around the globe. Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, the war crimes being committed by Israel against Palestine, the
Syrian civil war are all conflicts that are being witnessed by the world recently.

II) The Climate-Conflict Links

The interconnected nature of climate change and armed conflict can be

explained on various footings as they share a complex intersection with political,
social, economic and demographic factors.

The Role Played by Climate Change

It is pertinent to note that climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” 4 by

multiplying both the primary causes of conflict and institutional weaknesses especially

2
‘The Global Climate 2011-2020: A decade of accelerating climate change’, World Meteorological
Organization (2023)
3 ‘The Armed Conflict Survey 2023’, International Institute for Strategic Studies (2023)
4 ‘Threat Multiplier: Climate Change, Disasters, and Poor People’, World Bank Group, November 2015

4
in countries that are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Its impact has the
potential to generate various conflict drivers such as resource scarcity and migration.
With essential resources, such as water and agriculture at stake, human security is
threatened which consequently leads to an increased risk of armed conflict. Evidence
suggests that even changes in rainfall patterns can contribute to amplifying conflict.

One of the prime examples include the role played by scarcity of water in Syria’s
civil war5. The drought led to agricultural failure causing civilians to migrate to urban
areas. This added to the already existing challenge of unemployment and economic
distress in the State. Evidently, countries such as Syria are often highly vulnerable to
the effects of climate change, because they get caged in a vicious circle where conflict
corrodes a country’s potential to deal with climate impacts, while simultaneously those
same climate impacts fuel conflict patterns and governance failures6. A Stanford led
study7 pertaining to this issue highlighted that climate change has influenced between
3% and 20% of armed conflict risk over the last century and that the influence will likely
increase dramatically.

The Role Played by Armed Conflict

Contrastingly, armed conflict can inflict severe and lasting damage to the
environment leading to long term implications for ecosystems and living conditions.
The means and methods used to inflict the armed conflict can result in water and soil
contamination, burning of fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation and
habitat destruction. One example of the devastating impacts of armed conflict on
climate change is the first Gulf War8. 700 oil fields in Kuwait were intentionally set on
fire resulting in smoke covering over 800 miles of the area. Additionally, 11 million
barrels of crude oil were spilled into the Persian Gulf creating a slick on the surface of
the desert and nearly 300 oil lakes formed in the desert and this polluted the soil for
decades.

5 Peter H. Gleick, ‘Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria’, [2014], Vol. 6, No. 3,
Weather, Climate and Society.
6 ‘The Armed Conflict Survey 2023’, International Institute for Strategic Studies (2023)
7 Devon Ryan, ‘Does Climate Change Cause Armed Conflict’. [2019], Nature Journal
8 Linden O, Jerneloev A, and Egerup J ‘Interim Report on The Environmental Impacts of the Gulf War

1991’ [2004], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

5
III) The Legal Gaps in International Law

Although International Law has encapsulated various instruments to tackle

climate change, there remains a common gap in all of them: they fail to highlight the
status of their applicability during armed conflict. This climate change regime includes
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto
Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015). The absence of any legal clarity
results in ambiguity regarding the obligation of states to respect this framework in
times of armed conflict. Although IHL does talk about the protection of the
environment, there are debates about the adequacy of these due to their unclear
excessively restrictive nature. The unclarity stems from the fact they only talk about
climate change in the context of collateral damage due to armed conflict and fail to
stress on its complete prevention.

However, recommendations have been given by various academics as to how

the current climate change regime can apply to armed conflict. For instance, Article
439 The Hague Convention establishes obligations for occupying powers, including
respecting "laws in force" in the occupied territory. This can act as a door for the
climate change regime to enter. Furthermore, The International Law Commission (ILC)
emphasizes that for widely ratified environmental treaties with global scope, it might
be challenging to envision suspending such treaties exclusively between the parties
involved in the armed conflict, as these obligations protect a collective interest
extending beyond those engaged in the conflict or occupation.

IV) The Threats that the Interplay Poses for Pakistan

Over the course of the past two decades, Pakistan has remained to be a part
of the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index. Within this
timeframe, 10,000 individuals have lost their lives to climate-related disasters, while

9 “(The Occupant) shall take all the measures in his power to restore, and ensure, as far as possible,
public order and safety, while respecting, unless absolutely prevented, the laws in force in the country”

6
173 extreme weather events have led to financial damages of approximately $4
billion10.

Climate Induced Migration

Climate induced migration has morphed into a reality for Pakistan now and this
leads to conflicts between migrants and settled communities. Due to Glacier Lake
Outburst Floods in 2010, more than 20 million people migrated from Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan. In 2018, as a result of water scarcity, around 33,000
residents from Nokshi Village of Balochistan had to migrate to other districts. A study11
conducted on district Thatta revealed that areas with a high density population and
lack of resources led to conflict between migrants and host communities. Alongside
this, a boost was also observed in energy and water insecurity which can be attributed
to poor governance.

Floods and Drought

The fluctuations of monsoon weather and rainfall has recently caused many
catastrophes including fatal floods and widespread droughts. One of the world's
deadliest floods in 2022 submerged one third of Pakistan consequently affecting 33
million people. This consequently compelled over 5.4 million individuals, including 2.5
million children, to depend exclusively on polluted water sourced from ponds and
wells12. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics has highlighted that the
country ranks 14th in the list of high risk countries affected by water scarcity because
of the lack of storage facilities for water causing more than one-third of it to go to
waste13.

10 ‘Devastating Floods in Pakistan’ (UNICEF) <https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-floods-

pakistan-2022> accessed 17 January 2024
11 Faizan Ali, Tooba Asim Khan, Aamir Alamgir, Moazzam Ali Khan, ‘Climate Change-Induced Conflicts

in Pakistan: From National to Individual Level’ [2018], Journal of Earth Systems and Environment.
12 ibid
13 Bukhari S, Ur Rehman A. ‘Water crisis in Pakistan and India: an emerging non-traditional threat in

South Asia’ [2022] Al-Hikmah Islamic Research Journal

7
Nuclear Security at Risk

Nuclear plants in coastal areas are at a greater risk of being influenced by

climate change. “We are likely profoundly underestimating climate change risk and
damages in coastal areas.” says Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science
Center at Pennsylvania State University14. A number of nuclear power plants in
Pakistan are situated a few meters above sea level, making them vulnerable to
flooding. This susceptibility poses a threat to the electrical systems of these nuclear
plants, potentially disabling their cooling mechanisms and resulting in overheating, a
scenario that could lead to a meltdown and the release of radioactive materials 15. A
notable example is the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant in Japan, which suffered
severe damage during the country's tsunami in March 2011. This incident resulted in
a catastrophic discharge of radioactive material, potentially necessitating the
evacuation of 50 million people.

Political Instability

Pakistan is a state that is sensitive to political instability. This can disrupt long-
term planning and hinder the implementation of sustainable policies pertaining to
climate change. A stable political environment is crucial for the continuity of climate
change initiatives. Climatic changes induce social and economic stresses, which can
be mitigated only if a political system is flexible enough to recast the national narrative
around climate adaptation and the conservation of resources.

Shortcomings in the Pakistani Legal Framework

Although Pakistan has encapsulated various legislations and policies on

climate change and armed conflict, the interdependent nature of the two has been left
unaddressed. Some of these include the National Security Policy 2022, Pakistan
Climate Change Act 2017, National Forest Policy 2015, National Nuclear Safety Policy

14 ‘What Are Coastal Nuclear Power Plants Doing to Address Climate Threats?’ (Ensia, 16 August 2018)
<https://ensia.com/features/coastal-nuclear/> accessed 16 January 2024
15 ‘Flood Risk at Nuclear Power Plants’ (Union of Concerned Scientists)
<https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/flood-risk-nuclear-power-plants> accessed 16 January 2024

8
2020, the National Climate Change Policy 2021, and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Monsoon Contingency Plan 2022.

The National Security Policy of Pakistan (2022-2026) centers economic

security as the foundation of national security, giving prominence to a geo-economic
vision alongside the traditional emphasis on geo-strategy. It acknowledges that
sustainable and inclusive economic growth is essential to broaden our national
resource base. However, it fails to take into account the devastating influence that
climate change can have and how such non-traditional security threats are to be dealt
with. Furthermore, the Policy fails to consider the notion of strengthening the state's
institutional capacity which would assist in dealing with the climate induced threats
and difficulties.

The National Climate Change Policy (2021) encapsulates a framework

highlighting the climate change related issues faced by Pakistan with the aim of
making the state climate-resilient while eradicating social disparities. This policy is also
not free of criticism. Firstly, the policy fails to identify vulnerable sectors and parties
that would be at the highest risk of suffering the consequences of climate change
including climate induced conflicts. Additionally, there was an absence of any inter-
coordination with other relevant sectors such as agriculture. The implementation can
be further disrupted by the lack of any defined target oriented actions.

The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Monsoon Contingency Plan (2022) aims to achieve

the goal of disaster risk reduction and preparedness. The province has also been
exposed to anthropogenic disasters in shape of terrorism and militancy. However, the
focus of the document is narrow in the sense that it fails to account for economic
zones, or adequate financing mechanisms to achieve the objectives discussed in the
document. The integration of climate financing is crucial in such documents however
the 2022 plan fails to shed light on it.

V) Recommendations:

Pakistan can take the following measures:

9
 Develop an Early Warning System for Disaster Preparedness and Risk
Mitigation by Referring to the UNISDR Checklists.
 Improve Disaster Response and Recovery by Proactive Institutionalization of
Recovery Measures.
 Increase Funding of the National Disaster Management Authority by
Developing a National Strategy Based on the CAREC and Nat Cat Models.
 Update the National Security Policy of Pakistan to Include Climate Induced
Threats.
 Integrate Climate Change Adaptation Measures into the National and
Subnational Policies in Education Sector by Following the UNESCO Guidelines
for Educational Planners and Ministries of Education.
 Develop A Climate Change Specific National Command and Operation Centre
(NCOC) by Referring to the COVID-19 NCOC.
 Improve Infrastructural Climate Resilience by Incorporating the Principle for
Resilience Infrastructure published by UNDRR.
 Shift Focus towards Climate Financing.

10
 Action Matrix

Options for Pakistan

Option Pathways to Implementation Actors Implementation

Solution of Solution Responsible Timelines

Establishing Early Early warning Pakistan should 1. National 6-12 Months for
Warning Systems systems play a take the Disaster establishing a
crucial role as an following Management data base
adaptive measures: Authority
measure for 1- Establish a 2. Provincial
climate change. database Disaster 6-8 Months for
These systems accessible to all Management developing an
utilize integrated which includes Authorities early warning
communication credible national 3. Ministry of system
platforms to climate data. Climate
assist diverse 2- Develop an Change and
sectors and early warning Environmental
communities. The system Coordination
UNISDR has specifically for 4. Local
published natural disasters Government
checklists for with the relevant Departments
developing early innovation and
warning systems. technology. This
could include
sending updates
by various
means such as
SMS, Television
or Radio

Better Disaster To fortify Pakistan has 1. National 12 to 18 Months

Response and preparedness for the capacity to Disaster to draft the
Recovery disasters and formulate a Management assessment
facilitate effective Multi-hazard Authority
responses, as vulnerability and 2. Provincial
well as to risk assessment Disaster
enhance the at both Management
"Build Back nationwide and Authorities
Better" approach district levels. 3. Ministry of
during recovery, This Climate
rehabilitation, and assessment will Change and
reconstruction, it be presented in Environmental
is crucial to a spatial- Coordination
integrate risk- temporal format,
informed while also

11
 methodologies referring to
into these detailed and
processes. location-specific
Addressing the evaluations.
risk of delays in This would
post-disaster assist in
relief, recovery, enhancing
and planning disaster
involves the responses.
proactive
institutionalization
of recovery
measures well
before the
occurrence of
any disaster.
Increase Funding of The CAREC Pakistan can 1. National 6-12 Months to
the National Disaster (Central Asia formulate a Disaster Risk formulate a
Management Authority Regional disaster risk Management finance strategy.
Economic finance strategy. Fund
Cooperation) This national 2. Ministry of
Model, an strategy should Climate
extensive entail identifying Change and
framework for suitable Environmental
fostering regional instruments for Coordination
economic various risk 3. Finance
integration and levels, utilizing Division of the
collaboration in multi-hazard Government of
South Asia, loss curves. It Pakistan.
fosters regional should consider
cooperation and factors such as
advocates for the funding
sustainable risk scale needed
sensitive for each risk
developments. level, the
urgency of
The National disbursement,
Catastrophe and the cost-
Model (Nat Cat) effectiveness of
model developed alternative
by National financial
Disaster Risk instruments for
Management specific loss
Fund to cater to layers.
Pakistan's This financing
specific strategy can be
requirements. used for
proposals of
These two funding.
models can be

12
 used to formulate
a disaster risk
finance strategy.
Updating the National Effective framing The policy 1. National 6-8 Months to
Security Policy of of climate and should be Security propose
Pakistan environmental updated to Division amendments
changes can include non- 2. Ministry of
direct policy traditional Law and
responses in the security threats Justice
direction of such as the 3. Ministry of
averting human ones caused by Climate
suffering and climate shocks. Change and
conflict. Focus needs to Environmental
be drawn Affairs
towards
developing
robust
institutions that
deal with such
threats
Integrate Climate UNESCO has Pakistan can 1. Ministry of 1-3 Months for
Change Adaptation published develop a Education establishing a
Measures into the guidance notes curriculum 2. Ministry of joint steering
National and for educational pertaining to the Climate committee
Subnational Policies in planners and climate conflict Change and
Education Sector ministries of threats Environmental 12-18 Months
education to overlooked by a Affairs for developing
incorporate joint steering 3. Ministry of the curriculum
conflict and committee Finance
disaster risk 4. Higher
reduction Education
measures into an Commission
education sector
plan to promote
mutual
understanding
and that help
to prevent conflict
A Climate Change The COVID-19 Pakistan can 1. Ministry of 12-18 Months to
Specific National NCOC can be develop this Planning develop the
Command and referred to as a Centre and this Development NCOC
Operation Centre model where the could guarantee and Special
(NCOC) entire the allocation of Initiatives
government was ample 2. Ministry of
involved and it resources to Climate
proved to be tackle the Change and
successful in repercussions of Environmental
combatting the climate change Affairs
pandemic. within the
country,

13
 fostering 3. Local
coordinated Government
efforts that Departments
cultivate political 4. NGOs
consensus. This
would also help
in preventing
climate induced
conflicts.
Improved The Principles for By utilizing 1. Ministry of 6-10 Months to
Infrastructural Climate Resilient these Planning update
Resilience Infrastructures guidelines, the Development infrastructural
have been State can and Special policies to
published by enhance their Initiatives include UNDRR
UNDRR to roads, 2. Ministry of guidelines.
ensure watersheds, Climate
implementation of water supply Change and 12-24 Months to
the he Sendai systems, power Environmental make the
Framework for generation and Affairs existing
Disaster Risk healthcare 3. Public Works infrastructure
Reduction 2015- facilities. This and climate resilient,
2030 would reduce Communication starting with the
climate induced Departments most vulnerable
migrations and 4. Local areas
consequently Government susceptible to
conflict. Departments climate change
impacts.
A Focal Shift Towards UNDP has Pakistan can 1. Ministry of 3-6 Months to
Climate Financing developed a modify the Financing. propose
guidebook on design of 2. Ministry of amendments.
how to access specific policies Climate
climate finance and schemes to Change and
for member align them more Environmental
states of the closely with Affairs
association of climate 3. Ministry of
southeast Asian financing goals. Law and
states. It offers It must refer to Justice
guidance on the UNDP 4. Ministry of
climate finance in guidelines to Planning
the region, ensure an Development
detailing the effective and Special
sources of transition. Initiatives
climate finance
flows.

14