perspective https://doi.org/10.

1038/s41586-018-0173-4

Choosing the future of Antarctica

S. R. Rintoul1,2,3*, S. L. Chown4, R. M. DeConto5, M. H. England6, H. A. Fricker7, V. Masson-Delmotte8, T. R. Naish9,
M. J. Siegert10 & J. C. Xavier11,12

We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking
back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and
the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide
impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies
that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the
next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.

A
ntarctica, the most remote region on Earth, is intimately coupled and social dimensions. These trajectories describe plausible alternative
to the rest of the climate system. Atmospheric and oceanic tele- futures rather than forecasts. Where possible, such as for some physical
connections communicate climate variations at low latitude to and chemical variables, we use quantitative projections from climate
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, influencing the polar atmosphere, and ice sheet models. Where this is not possible (as for many biolog-
ocean, ice sheet, sea ice and biosphere. Likewise, Antarctica and the sur- ical and social systems), we anticipate future change using a heuristic
rounding Southern Ocean affect the rest of the globe. The amount and approach based on process understanding and the known response
rate of sea level rise in the coming centuries depends on the response to past changes (noting that the heuristic approach risks neglecting
of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to warming of the atmosphere and ocean1. important nonlinearities or surprises in natural systems10,11).
The Southern Ocean takes up more anthropogenic heat and carbon than Of necessity, we offer the perspective of a single observer on 50 years
the oceans at other latitudes, helping to slow the pace of atmospheric of change in Antarctica, but we acknowledge that given the global
warming2,3. The circulation of the Southern Ocean also sustains global diversity of human experience and values, other observers would
marine productivity by returning nutrient-rich deep water to the surface interpret these changes through a different lens. We do not assume
and exporting nutrients to lower latitudes4. Given the profound influence that individuals, institutions or society will act in a certain way; rather,
of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean on sea level, climate, and marine we assess the possible consequences of particular courses of action (or
ecosystems, change in the region will have widespread consequences for inaction). Our goal is to initiate discussion and consideration of options
the Earth and humanity. From a political perspective, Antarctica and the for Antarctica’s future, and to highlight how the future of Antarctica is
Southern Ocean are among the largest shared spaces on Earth, regulated tied to that of the rest of the planet and human society.
by the unique governance regime of the Antarctic Treaty System5, and
embedded within and connected to broader global decision-making6,7. Antarctica in 2070 under high emissions
We present, from the perspective of an observer in 2070, two narra- Looking back from 2070, it is clear that the past 50 years have
tives on 50 years of change in Antarctica. Each narrative highlights the unfolded much as anticipated by the high emissions (Representative
long-term consequences of decisions made today. The 50-year times- Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) scenario used by the
cale reflects a period over which substantial differences between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
two scenarios will develop and is within the lifetime of today’s children. Report1 published more than half a century ago. Growth in energy and
In the first, no meaningful action was taken to mitigate greenhouse food demand by the increased global population, supplied predomi-
gas emissions and global warming continued unabated. In the sec- nantly by intensive agriculture supported by fossil fuel use and associ-
ond, aggressive measures were taken to limit emissions, restrict global ated with deforestation, drove an ongoing acceleration of greenhouse
warming and increase resilience. We consider the ‘high emissions/ gas concentrations in the atmosphere and an increase in effective radi-
weak action’ and ‘low emissions/strong action’ narratives to be likely ative forcing of about 5 W m−2 compared to the pre-industrial period1.
upper and lower bounds on the future trajectory of Antarctica and Lack of action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions was accompanied
the Southern Ocean. The trajectory that plays out over the next 50 by lack of regulation of the human presence in Antarctica. Both dis-
years depends on choices made today. Cumulative emissions of CO2 tant and local human activities have left an indelible footprint on the
largely determine global mean surface warming1, so continued growth Antarctic and Southern Ocean environment (Fig. 1).
in emissions soon commits us to further unavoidable climate impacts,
even if some of those impacts take decades or centuries to emerge fully8. Change in the physical environment
Greenhouse gas emissions must start decreasing in the coming decade After 50 years of continued high greenhouse gas emissions, global mean
to have a realistic prospect of following the low emissions narrative9. surface air temperatures over land are now more than 3.5 °C higher than
We provide an integrated assessment of the associated trajectories observed in the late nineteenth century1 (Fig. 2), well above the sym-
for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, spanning physical, biological bolic ‘guardrail’ of 2 °C introduced in international climate agreements
1
CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. 2Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. 3Centre for Southern Hemisphere
Oceans Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. 4School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria, Australia. 5University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA. 6ARC Centre of Excellence
for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. 7Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA. 8LSCE (IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université
Paris Saclay), Paris, France. 9Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand. 10Grantham Institute and Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, London,
UK. 11Marine and Environmental Science Centre MARE, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal. 12British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council,
Cambridge, UK. *e-mail: Steve.Rintoul@csiro.au

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 insight Perspective

Fig. 1 | Schematic summary of

Increase in snow
impacts on Antarctica and the
accumulation Southern Ocean in 2070, under
at high elevations a ‘high emissions/low action’
Increased
human presence scenario. T, temperature; S, salinity;
O2, oxygen.

Vegetation
cover expands
Shifts in range Surface melting
and population and thinning Accelerating
of penguins ice flow
Westerlies shift
south and and mass loss
strengthen
Thinning and
retreat of Grounding
ice shelves line retreat
Summer
sea ice reduction
Basal melting
Sea level rise increase
More warm
Increase water intrusion
pH
in fishing O2 onto the shelf
S
Poleward migration
T
of warm deep water

pH
O2
S

T
Bottom
water

after the 2009 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Antarctic Circumpolar Current has exceeded ocean temperature rise
Change meeting in Copenhagen and reaffirmed by the nations of the observed at other latitudes, reflecting the efficient uptake of anthro-
world in a landmark agreement signed in Paris in December 2015. pogenic heat by the overturning circulation3. Antarctic Bottom Water,
the volume of which had already contracted by 50% between 1970 and
Atmosphere. Air temperatures over Antarctica have warmed1 by 201418, no longer exists. As a result of freshening, water sinking near
about 3 °C, well above the range of centennial variations of the current Antarctica is no longer dense enough to qualify as Antarctic Bottom
interglacial period12. In some low-lying regions of the continent, this Water, although continued sinking of less-dense water maintains deep
increase in temperature has been sufficient to cause surface melt in oxygen levels19. In response to ongoing changes in surface winds, the
summer. The increase in summer melt has had widespread impacts, subtropical gyres have shifted polewards, effectively shrinking the
contributing to the collapse of ice shelves, exposing new ice-free areas Southern Ocean20.
open to colonization by native and introduced plants, and altering the The combined impact of changes in winds, warming and
area suitable for nesting penguins and other birds. freshening has slightly strengthened the upper limb of the Southern Ocean
During the 30 years between 2015 and 2045, recovery of the ozone overturning circulation21. The Southern Ocean therefore continues to
hole tended to push the westerlies further north, while increases take up and export large amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, helping
in greenhouse gas concentrations caused a shift to the south. As a to slow the increase in global surface temperatures. Although uptake
result, spring and summer wind patterns changed little over this time and export of heat by the overturning circulation initially delayed
period, in stark contrast to the strengthening and poleward shift of warming around Antarctica, surface sea and air temperatures in and
the westerlies seen in summer in previous decades13. During the around Antarctica are now warming at about the same rate as the global
winter season, when the ozone hole had little impact on the winds, average, with larger warming in winter than in summer1.
the westerlies began to shift polewards and intensify after 2010 in The chemistry of Southern Ocean waters continued to change
response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmos- in response to rising levels of atmospheric CO2. The pH of surface
phere. By around 2045, greenhouse gases had won out over ozone waters south of 60° S decreased by 0.2 between 2017 and 2070, equiva-
recovery even in summer, forcing the westerlies to shift south and lent to a 50% decrease in the concentration of hydrogen ions since the
strengthen in all seasons14. pre-industrial period1. Southern Ocean surface waters south of
60° S became under-saturated with respect to aragonite in winter by
Southern Ocean. Southern Ocean surface waters have warmed every- 2040, and by 2070, >30% of the Southern Ocean surface waters south
where, reversing a slight cooling observed in the early twenty-first cen- of 40° S had become under-saturated year-round1,22. Hence, waters have
tury at high latitudes, with an average increase1 of 1.9 °C south of 50 °S. become corrosive to shells and other biological structures made of this
Surface waters have also freshened in response to increased precipita- form of calcium carbonate.
tion and melt of sea ice and glacier ice15–17. Warming and freshening
of surface waters have increased stratification and inhibited exchange Ice shelves. Wind-driven changes in ocean currents resulted in an
with nutrient-rich deep waters. At 1,000 m depth, warming north of the increase in ocean heat transport to the Amundsen Sea in the late

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 Perspective insight

twentieth and early twenty-first century23. Warmer ocean waters enter- consistent with early ice sheet model projections33,45–47 and sea-level
ing the cavities beneath floating ice shelves drove higher rates of basal reconstructions of past warmer worlds48, including the Pliocene
melting, thinning of ice shelves, and a reduction in the back-stress on the (3 million years ago, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were only
grounded ice upstream. The reduced buttressing increased the flow of 400 parts per million by volume), and the most recent interglacial
the ice streams feeding the ice shelves and led to the retreat of grounding period (125 thousand years ago). High emissions over the past
lines, including runaway retreat of glaciers grounded on bedrock that 50 years have already committed us to more than 10 m of sea level rise
deepened inland24–27. in the longer term (that is, >3,000 years); if emissions continue on the
Although some ice shelves had supported extensive surface present trajectory to a total of 5,120 Pg of carbon, we are committed
melting for decades28, summer air temperatures are now high enough to more than 50 m of sea level rise in 10,000 years, 80% of which will
to increase surface melt on large areas of the floating ice shelves29–31. be contributed by the Antarctic Ice Sheet49. Economic losses from
The increased volume of surface melt, coupled with an increase in the the flooding of coastal cities already exceed US$1 trillion per year50
temperature of the surface firn due to persistent refreezing of meltwa- as a result of the sea level rise of less than half a metre that occurred
ter and associated release of latent heat, has now led to the collapse of between 2000 and 20701,33.
several ice shelves through hydrofracturing, a process first observed
in Antarctica 70 years ago during the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Sea ice
Shelf32. The Larsen C Ice Shelf collapsed by hydrofracture in 205533 Slow expansion of Antarctic sea ice in the decades preceding 2016
following several decades of thinning34, and then several consecutive encouraged, in some, a sense of complacency about the stability of
summers of excessive summer melting. Antarctic sea ice. Record low sea ice extent in 2016 served as a cau-
Most of the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea have thinned at an tionary reminder that this past stability could not be taken for granted.
accelerating rate owing to increased ocean temperatures that caused Indeed, by 2045 Antarctic sea ice was in clear and sustained retreat.
higher basal melt rates in the sub-ice cavities. The Venable, Crosson Winter sea ice extent has reduced by 40%, more than twice the retreat
and Dotson ice shelves were all lost between 2040 and 2050, quickly projected for 2070 by climate models1, consistent with the large sen-
followed by the Thwaites ice shelf in 2060, as anticipated in 2015 from sitivity of winter sea ice extent to Antarctic warming inferred from
trends measured by satellites between 1994 and 201234. Nearly a quar- palaeoclimate information51. Summer sea ice extent has decreased by
ter of the volume of Antarctica’s ice shelves has been lost in the past almost half and most of the continental margin is now regularly free of
50 years33. Loss of sea ice also contributed to a decrease in buttressing sea ice in February, enabling access by ship to previously inaccessible
of ice shelves35. Totten Glacier, an outlet for a large ice-sheet drainage regions, increasing fishing activity and tourism.
basin in East Antarctica, has undergone thinning and retreat driven by
warm water36 accessing the grounding line. Changes in ocean currents Change in biology and ecosystems
have led to warmer ocean water entering ice shelf cavities (as predicted Fisheries. As access to the Antarctic coast has become easier, Antarctic
for the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf37), causing ice-shelf thinning and the marine systems are being exploited by fisheries from many nations,
retreat of the grounding line across ice streams identified previously with stocks in decline around the continent. While initial conservation
as being particularly vulnerable to such change in both the West38 and actions, including new marine protected areas, provided some respite
East Antarctic39 ice sheets. for toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides and Dissostichus mawsoni)7, their
The large number of icebergs produced by collapsing ice shelves all long life cycles52, illegal and unregulated practices53, and increased
around Antarctica40 is now carefully monitored to manage the risks to interest in the species because of fishery collapses elsewhere54 quickly
the greatly expanded fishing, tourism and commercial shipping fleets, depleted their populations. Interest in the Antarctic krill Euphausia
and Antarctic operations by Antarctic Treaty nations. superba fishery has seen profound growth because of new technologies
for product processing, and resource depletion elsewhere55. Coupled
Antarctic Ice Sheet and sea level. Fifty years ago, mass loss from the with growing impacts of acidification on juvenile stages56, replacement
ice-sheet margins of West Antarctica was partially compensated by of Antarctic krill by salps in many areas owing to sea ice changes57,
mass gain due to increased snowfall over East Antarctica41,42, facili- and a rise in the number of baleen whales58 the fishery has substan-
tated by more frequent intrusions of marine air as the westerlies shifted tially reduced stocks, at least as far as assessments show, though these
south43. However, the increase in ocean-driven melting could not be have been compromised by the absence of an extensive research-based
balanced by enhanced accumulation after 2020, leading to unequivocal assessment59. In the ensuing scramble to make use of resources, the
loss of mass from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. evidence-based management approaches implemented successfully
Observations of grounding line locations and ice stream velocities by the Commission on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living
now confirm that the ‘marine ice sheet instability’ is well underway resources (CCAMLR) were overwhelmed58,60.
in West Antarctica, as first proposed in the 1970s24 and supported
by observations and modelling in 201425–27. The loss of back-stress Predators. The decline of exploited fish and krill stocks affected
after the disappearance of ice shelves has led to increased flow of ice the populations of predators, including declines of several popula-
from the ice sheet to the ocean in both East and West Antarctica. tions of penguin species61,62, though with complexity in some areas
Tall, unstable44 ice cliffs have begun to appear in places around the arising from declines in competition with exploited toothfish63. Some
marine-terminating ice sheet margin, where ice shelves and glacier Antarctic krill predators, such as black-browed and grey-headed
tongues that were more than 750 m thick at their grounding zones albatrosses, have shifted their diet from Antarctic krill to mesope-
have been lost. Further collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is now lagic fish and squid in response64, joining a large suite of myctophid
irreversible26,27, mainly through the rapidly retreating, 120-km-wide feeders65, including fur seals66. Fishery-related mortality of seabirds
Thwaites Glacier. Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet has contrib- and seals has increased because of growth in mesopelagic fish and
uted more than 27 cm of global sea level rise since 2000, as predicted squid fisheries67–69. Overall, Southern Ocean fisheries are declining
decades earlier33,45. The rate of mass loss from Antarctica now exceeds in value and their regulation is increasingly contentious, reflecting
5 mm yr−1 (in sea level equivalent terms) and continues to accelerate. problems encountered globally in fisheries during the twentieth and
Antarctica now makes the largest contribution to the rise in global twenty-first centuries.
mean sea level, exceeding the contribution from thermal expansion,
the retreat of mountain glaciers and melting of the Greenland Ice Community structure. Warming has also led to substantial changes
Sheet. The total rate of sea level rise is similar to rates during the last in the composition of marine communities. In the decades following
deglaciation (averaging 10–15 mm yr–1)1. A commitment to multi- 2017, regional trends of increase in some species and declines in others
ple metres of sea level rise in the longer term is now irreversible, continued70,71. More recently, unexpected regime shifts occurred,

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 insight Perspective

Low emissions High emissions Fig. 2 | Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in 2070, under ‘low
Effective Antarctic Ineffective Antarctic emissions/high action’ (left) and ‘high emissions/low action’
policy/governance = policy/governance = (right) scenarios. Differences are relative to a 1986–2005 reference
increased resilience increased instability period. Differences (1) to (6) are atmosphere–ocean–ice differences,
+2.9 °C taken from model projections following low- and high-emissions
scenarios, respectively. Data for differences (1), (3), (4) and (5)
1 Global +0.9 °C
air temperature
are from ref. 1. Data for differences (2) and (6) are from ref. 33.
Differences (7) to (11) are differences in ecosystem states and
pressures, with ecosystem structure changing from the current
2 Antarctic
6 cm
27 cm situation to one characterized by new species and interactions. Data
contribution
to sea level for difference (7) is from refs 1 and 22; for (8) from refs 82 and 83; for
(9) from refs 57,78 and 113; for (10) from ref. 6 and for (11) from ref. 5.
+3.0 °C The low-emissions scenario sees greenhouse gas mitigation adhered
3 Antarctic to, limiting global warming by 2070 to 0.9 °C above the 1986–2005
air temperature +0.9 °C mean. The high-emissions scenario, in which no mitigation takes
place, leads to 2.9 °C of global warming by 2070 relative to the 1986–
2005 mean, or 3.5 °C relative to 1850–1900. The systems assessed
4 Southern +1.9°C are: (1) global average air temperature; (2) Antarctic contribution to
Ocean +0.7 °C global sea level; (3) Antarctic surface air temperature; (4) Southern
temperature Ocean surface temperature; (5) summer (February) sea ice extent;
(6) Antarctic ice shelf volume; (7) ocean acidification (illustrated
5 Summer by a pteropod, a marine snail, with an aragonite shell subject to
12% 43%
sea ice extent loss loss
dissolution under acidic conditions); (8) level of alien species
invasion; (9) ecosystem structure (under the low-emissions scenario
the present ecosystem continues; under the high-emissions scenario
8% 23% some species, such as crabs, become established and other species
6 Ice shelf reduction reduction shifts occur, such as from krill to salps, as the climate warms and sea
volume
ice retreats); (10) human presence; and (11) resource use. Each of
these systems will continue to change after 2070, with the magnitude
7 Ocean
Surface Surface waters
of the change to which we are committed being generally much larger
acidification/ than the change realized by 2070.
waters corrosive to aragonite
reduced
saturated shells of pteropods
calcification

8 Biological
2 × today 10 × today
invasions

Salps
9 Ecosystem
structure
Krill

10 Human
presence

11 Resource
use

caused by changing interactions among key species (such as between already recorded from the peninsula in the early part of the century81.
Antarctic krill, penguins, seals and baleen whales), catastrophic Others are species that had long been predicted to colonize on the basis
declines in some species, and in response to new phenomena such of analyses of seeds carried to Antarctica by scientific and tourist oper-
as transport of soil particles to the ocean by increased run-off of ice ations82. For other species, provenance remains obscure: they could
melt from the continent72,73. Changes in resource availability further have colonized naturally or through human agency. Debate of this con-
hastened Adelie and Chinstrap penguin range contractions61,74. Gentoo tentious point at the Antarctic Treaty’s Committee for Environmental
penguins benefited initially, as early assessments predicted75, but warm- Protection (CEP) precluded action, resulting in their further spread.
ing to the north and fishery impacts have led to trailing-edge range con- By 2070, many research stations and several new tourist hotels have,
tractions and the start of population declines in this species too. Ocean in consequence, developed manicured gardens. Settlements of perma-
acidification further complicated community responses. While some nent residents, including small numbers of migrants, have now become
species adapted to acidification (for example, Antarctic brachiopods76), established to service the research and tourism industries6, and to con-
others were less able to do so (for example, pteropods77), resulting in trol invasive pests83. Invasive species management lessons learned in
reorganization of communities70, compounded by changing ocean and the late twentieth century from the sub-Antarctic islands seem to have
atmospheric conditions78. been forgotten.
Elsewhere on the continent, non-indigenous species have yet to
Terrestrial biota and invasive species. On land, melt and retreat establish populations82,83. Yet, owing to discord in the CEP precipitated
of glaciers exposed new ice-free areas, particularly on the Antarctic by rapidly changing conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and many
Peninsula, the northernmost part of the continent79. Antarctica’s only biotic invasions, attention to transfer of species among the continent’s
two native vascular plant species showed initial increases in populations conservation biogeographic regions diminished84,85. Molecular phy-
and expanded their ranges widely on the peninsula, with Antarctic logeographic studies of several groups, and especially the microbiota,
hair grass predominating80. By 2050 this vegetation had come to were discontinued after investigations revealed that exchange of species
include many other species too. Some are recognizable as widespread and populations among Antarctic biogeographic regions had become
Antarctic invaders, especially the annual bluegrass or Poa annua, virtually continuous after 205086.

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 Perspective insight

Biodiversity conservation. Both in the Southern Ocean and on con- revenue now provides the main source of funding for national Antarctic
tinental Antarctica, action early in the twenty-first century led to programmes, alongside partnerships with the fishing, pharmaceutical,
improvements in biodiversity conservation, especially after attention food and minerals industries. Management of the Antarctic environ-
was drawn to the potential for effective management to deliver rapid ment is now similar to that of national parks elsewhere, where man-
improvements in Antarctic biodiversity7. By 2050, however, many gains agers strike an uneasy balance between revenue generation, tourist
had started to suffer attrition. Establishment of protected areas slowed numbers and biodiversity protection. Most of the global population
after an increase in the first two decades of the century, and protected now lives in cities and is less connected with the importance and mean-
area management failed to keep up with threats from growing human ing of the natural world (an extinction of experience93), resulting in loss
activity and resource exploitation60,87. Moreover, funding of envi- of commitment to environmental concerns, including Antarctica. In
ronmental protection to underpin decision-making declined owing consequence, programmes focused on a distant continent rather than
to larger environmental degradation problems elsewhere, including on immediate surroundings attract little media attention, apart from
those associated with rapidly rising sea levels88. Although the CEP con- the wide concern about Antarctica’s impact on global sea level rise. (A
tinues to meet on an annual basis, its recommendations are generally rearguard action to delay sea level rise by pumping seawater onto the
ignored at meetings of the parties to the Antarctic Treaty, unless they Antarctic continent to be stored as ice, with power supplied by 850,000
are relevant to the dominant issues of resource apportionment and 1.5-MW wind turbines, fell well short of the scale needed to make much
management of expanding ice-free areas and widespread, land-based difference to sea level rise94). While the Antarctic Treaty System’s var-
tourism. The special meeting held 50 years ago at the 40th Antarctic ious agreements remain in place, they have weakened, leaving them
Treaty Consultative Meeting entitled ‘Our Antarctica: Protection and vulnerable to other actors on a stage marked by regional rivalry rather
Utilization’ presaged this change. than international cooperation.

Change in human engagement with Antarctica Antarctica in 2070 under low emissions
Perceptions of the priorities for and efficacy of the Antarctic govern- Although the prospects for effective global action to mitigate emissions
ance regime and its global role varied widely among governments, looked grim in 2015, the subsequent ratification of the United Nations
NGOs and diverse members of civil society, and changed over time Paris climate agreement by 196 countries, including the USA after some
in concert with a rapidly changing global order. While the reaction delay, heralded a new era of international cooperation to reduce green-
of different actors to the growing evidence of dramatic change in the house gas emissions. The faster-than-anticipated decrease in renewable
Antarctic environment therefore diversified, overall the past 50 years energy and battery costs triggered a rapid transition out of coal. An
have been characterized by gradual erosion of the systems that safe- increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme climate events
guarded the Antarctic environment in the late twentieth and early affecting major populations and economies highlighted widespread
twenty-first century5. vulnerability and convinced decision-makers to increase their ambition
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with the strong involvement of cit-
Harvesting. Between 2017 and 2070, the global human population ies, regions and business. As a result of these policies, amplifying carbon
grew by >40%, from 7 billion to 10 billion89. Owing to tremendous feedbacks were not triggered, and we are now on track to keep warming
pressure for resources to support this larger and more prosperous pop- well below the 2 ° C target. New financial pathways helped create a
ulation, including a now overweight or obese majority90, Antarctica and functional and equitable carbon market, which incentivized business to
the Southern Ocean are now even more widely explored or exploited. transition rapidly to a low-carbon economy. Business leaders and fund
Most exploitation has occurred in the Southern Ocean, with a diversity managers began to appreciate the financial opportunities and other
of marine species harvested. At the CCAMLR, discussions now focus on co-benefits of the transition associated with de-carbonization, and new
resource apportionment among nations, rather than on an ecosystem- technologies allowed for safe and efficient sequestration and ultimately
based approach to conservation60,91. On the continent, harvesting is removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. As a result, radiative
less noticeable. Ongoing legal battles over bioprospecting7 continue, forcing has more or less followed the so-called RCP2.6 scenario con-
however. Much of the pharmaceutical prospecting interest lies in sidered by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, with radiative forcing
discovering products that may manipulate human metabolism. reaching a peak in about 2040 and with net fossil fuel emissions now
negative1. Widespread recognition of the dangers of unrestricted use
Mining. In 2049, several nations attempted to rescind Article 7 of the of fossil fuels inspired changes in consumption patterns in the devel-
Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, which oped world, including shifts to more sustainable plant-based diets and
prohibits mineral resource exploitation. A majority of nations agreed, changes in agriculture and land-use practices. The availability of low-
but the motion failed to obtain agreement of three-quarters of the cost renewable energy enabled developing countries to provide afforda-
states that were Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties at the time of ble clean energy and alleviate poverty. Progress in meeting the challenge
the adoption of the Environmental Protocol, a requirement of Article of climate change was accompanied by a renewed global commitment
25. Thus, the Environmental Protocol remained unchanged. The to the Sustainable Development Goals, most of which were achieved
early, clear division between the parties espousing a research for use by 203595. Early action to reduce emissions allowed some costly adap-
approach and those more concerned with conservation5 largely disap- tation measures to be avoided (for example, the US$50 billion per year
peared after 2048. Many nations started investigating resource potential needed to protect coastal cities against flood losses50), freeing up funds
and extraction technologies, thinly veiled under the guise of scientific for social goods such as improved healthcare and poverty reduction.
exploration. Much of this ‘research’ activity now verges on extraction,
with little political will to challenge these actions because of likely Change in the physical environment
interference with geo-political complexities elsewhere on the planet6. The physical environment of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Rapid technological developments in the Arctic have made resource remains similar in many respects to that of 50 years ago1 (Fig. 2).
exploration more affordable in polar regions, and global shortages of Climate variability in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean continues
key minerals have driven investment in what has now come to be called to be dominated by the Southern Annular Mode, the high-latitude
‘scientific exploration’. atmospheric response to ENSO96, and interactions between the two97.

Tourism. Although a visit to Antarctica still remains the privilege of a Atmosphere. Atmospheric trends observed in the decades before 2017
limited few compared with the global population, tourist numbers now were largely associated with changes in the Southern Annular Mode
exceed one million each year, reflecting rapid growth after an initial related to the ozone hole, in particular a southward shift and strength-
hiatus in the early twenty-first century92. For many nations, tourism ening of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, particularly in

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 insight Perspective

summer13. Decreases in emissions of ozone-depleting substances as a on recognition of evolutionary potential and genetic connectivity, ena-
result of the 1989 Montreal Protocol led to gradual repair of the ozone bled a flexible approach to maintenance of populations and helped
hole and ozone levels in the Antarctic stratosphere have now returned achieve the CCAMLR goal of conservation of the Southern Ocean
to the values of the 1960s98. Repair of the ozone hole and a stabilization ecosystem.
of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere were accompanied
by a gradual shift towards the Equator and weakening of the westerly Marine ecosystems. Local change in the marine system continued
winds in summer99, returning to values typical of the twentieth cen- along trajectories recorded early in the twenty-first century72–75,78,
tury14. Surface air and sea temperatures warmed by less than 1 °C and with reversals of earlier trends recently becoming apparent. Widely
precipitation slightly increased (<10%) over the ocean and interior of forecast tipping points were averted. New monitoring approaches104,105
the Antarctic continent1. provided opportunities to identify locations where such threshold shifts
might be important and to design strategies to avert them, such as
Southern Ocean and sea ice. Trends observed in temperature, salinity temporary ecosystem manipulation106. Although ocean acidification
and circulation of the Southern Ocean in the late twentieth century continued, the impacts stabilized following the decrease in atmos-
and early twenty-first century slowed and ultimately reversed in the pheric CO2 levels after 2040. Some population declines were recorded
decades between 2020 and 2050. The return of the westerly winds to in sensitive species77, but others adapted, resulting in less change
a position closer to the Equator was associated with a similar shift of than was initially forecast71. Seal and seabird populations continued
the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and hence cooling in parts of the to show changes in their foraging range, and changes in body mass
Southern Ocean. The overturning circulation continued to transfer and breeding success62,64. However, stabilization of sea ice conditions,
anthropogenic heat and carbon dioxide effectively into the ocean inte- and a reduction in the frequency of the extreme events to which these
rior. Changes in wind-driven ocean currents reduced the exposure of species are sensitive107, reduced the rate of change. For some species,
the floating ice shelves to basal melt by warm ocean waters. However, such as wandering albatross Diomedea exulans, weakening in the
the reduction in ocean heat transport to the ice shelf cavities came too strength of the westerlies reversed a trend of enhanced breeding suc-
late to save some West Antarctic ice shelves and ice tongues. Sea ice cess and larger body mass associated with the strengthening westerlies
extent declined slightly (<15%) in both summer and winter between earlier in the century108.
2015 and 20701.
Effective action to mitigate emissions has also slowed the rate of Terrestrial ecosystems. On land, spread of the two indigenous vascular
increase in acidity of the oceans. The pH of Southern Ocean surface plant species on the Antarctic Peninsula continued, but at a declining
waters stabilized in the 2040s at values about 0.15 below pre-industrial rate by the late 2060s. Changes predicted for the Dry Valleys associated
values, or 0.05 below values observed in 20151. Southern Ocean surface with pulse events109 continued, but with declining importance after
waters remain super-saturated with respect to aragonite. The exposure 2060. The Long Term Ecological Research sites proved exceptionally
of Southern Ocean biota to ocean acidification has therefore increased important as a source of evidence to document climate-associated bio-
only marginally over the past 50 years. diversity responses. Rapid progress in remote sensing techniques110,
alongside adoption of a suite of essential biodiversity variables, enabled
Ice shelves. While some ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula and researchers to verify that changes in terrestrial ecosystems were within
Amundsen Sea were lost, the thinning rates observed in the large ice the bounds anticipated for the low-emissions scenario considered by
shelves for the period 1994–2012 remained fairly steady through to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report1.
2070. The Totten, Amery and Larsen C ice shelves remain largely intact,
undergoing normal retreat through several large iceberg calving events. Invasive species. The introduction of invasive species along the
The marine ice cliff instability33,44, which glaciologists feared could Antarctic Peninsula initially continued as had been expected. However,
become widespread by 2050, has mostly been limited to a few outlet none of the world’s most invasive species have established, largely
glaciers in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and has not because the climate remained inhospitable83. Several European and
reached East Antarctica. Persistence of pore space in the surface layer sub-Antarctic species were able to gain a foothold and spread initially,
allowed more meltwater to be stored within the firn, decreasing the as had been predicted from increasing human activity in the region82.
susceptibility to hydrofracture100. Nonetheless, two developments reduced the magnitude of the problem.
First, the CEP adopted a systematic, DNA barcoding and web-based
Antarctic Ice Sheet and sea level. Although dynamic ice loss from surveillance system, which enabled rapid identification of ‘unusual’ spe-
marine-based sectors of the ice sheet has occurred, the rate of change cies found by environmental managers, and appropriate action. Second,
is much less than the worst-case projections because many ice shelves the parties to the Antarctic Treaty agreed two regulatory frameworks
continue to provide back-stress on the grounded ice33,45. Mass loss from in quick succession in the years leading up to 2030. First, an agreement
the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica continued, contributing on the importance of Antarctic genetic resources and bioprospecting
6 cm of sea level rise between 2000 and 207033. After retreating steadily was put in place as a further Annex to the Environmental Protocol, thus
until 2050, the grounding zone of the Thwaites Glacier re-stabilized resolving a decades-long impasse7. The renewed focus on the value of
on a topographic feature about 25 km landwards of its early indigenous resources improved conservation actions to retain them,
twenty-first-century position101, saving the West Antarctic Ice Sheet including the declaration of a suite of new terrestrial protected areas.
from further decay. In 2070, sea level rise continues to be dominated by Second, a Protocol on Tourism Regulation, initially proposed in the
contributions from ocean thermal expansion, glacier melt, and equal earlier years of the century5 was eventually agreed as a further Annex to
roles of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets, as in the 2010s. the Environmental Protocol. The Annex regulated all Antarctic activity,
recognizing the similarity in impacts of science, tourism and resource
Change in biology and ecosystems extraction activities (the agreement excluded fishing). These develop-
Value of Antarctica. Following the ratification of the United Nations ments also prompted further attention to components of diversity not
Paris Climate Agreement, and the Santiago Declaration by the parties frequently considered, yet of tremendous consequence in the Antarctic
to the Antarctic Treaty102 to improve Antarctic and Southern Ocean terrestrial system—the microbiota111. The parties to the Antarctic
environmental management, a sea change swept across the Antarctic Treaty agreed by resolution to apply strict biosecurity measures on
Treaty System. The CCAMLR embraced the reality that climate change travel among the Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions86.
and harvesting were simultaneously threatening the Antarctic ecosys- Thus, evolutionary biology continued to document the unusual nature
tem. In consequence, barriers to establishment of Marine Protected of Antarctic systems and their evolutionary history. The outcomes of
Areas60 were dismantled. Systematic conservation planning103, based this work provided valuable insights into the microbial history of the

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 Perspective insight

planet and the way systems might evolve elsewhere. Moreover, biopros- Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are closely coupled to the rest
pecting activities delivered new products that improved the health and of the globe. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest and most uncertain
wellbeing of human populations. potential contributor to future sea level rise. In addition, changes in
high southern latitudes will also directly affect the energy budget of the
Change in human engagement with Antarctica Earth by altering the planetary albedo, the strength of the global over-
Effective governance. Strong action by the international community turning circulation, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,
to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions was echoed in Antarctica, where and the availability of nutrients to support marine life.
the parties to the Antarctic Treaty reversed decades of regulatory inac- Under the high-emissions scenario, Antarctica and the Southern
tion5. Decisive steps were taken to limit the impact of increased human Ocean undergo widespread and rapid change, with global conse-
engagement with Antarctica. Motivated by a clearer appreciation of quences. But the environmental change realized by 2070 will be only
the threats to the region and the global value of better understand- a fraction of the change to which we are committed by choices made
ing Antarctica and its links to lower latitudes, the parties reaffirmed today, and the rate of change will have increased and continue to
the commitment to maintain Antarctica as a natural reserve for peace accelerate. For example, once initiated, the marine ice sheet instability
and science102 and, importantly, strengthened a variety of governance will result in irreversible loss of large parts of the ice sheet resting on
measures to ensure the commitment was put into practice. Although bedrock below sea level. Under the low-emissions scenario, in which
national implementation of measures remained variable, reflecting the global average temperatures remain within 2 °C of 1850 values, there
complexity of interactions and feedbacks between international law is some chance that the buttressing ice shelves will survive and the
and domestic legislation and politics5, the tenor of the international Antarctic contribution to sea level rise will remain below 1 m. Under
governance conversation had changed. the high-emissions scenario, the ice shelves are lost and Antarctica con-
tributes 0.6 m to 3 m of sea level rise by 2300, with an irreversible com-
International collaboration. Perhaps most important was the mitment45 of 5 m to 9 m, or as much as33 15 m in the coming millennia.
improved relationship between the Antarctic Treaty System and the Despite the challenges, actions can be taken now that will slow the
United Nations, especially through its environment programme. The rate of environmental change, increase the resilience of Antarctica, and
very cool relations sparked in the 1980s by the ‘Question of Antarctica’, reduce the risk of out-of-control consequences. An effective response to
which remained on the United Nations’ General Assembly Agenda the challenges of a changing Antarctica can serve as an example of the
until 2005112, started to thaw some two decades later. Chief among the power of peaceful international collaboration, as well as demonstrate
catalysts was research showing that Antarctica and the Earth system how integration of physical, biological and social sciences can enable
are inseparable. Moreover, an increasing focus on truly global action decision-making that is informed by the past and takes account of the
to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals95 helped improve col- long-term consequences of today’s choices.
laboration. Warming relationships between international institutions
were also reflected by better collaboration between CCAMLR and Received: 19 December 2017; Accepted: 13 March 2018;
other regional fisheries management organizations5, to the benefit of Published online 13 June 2018.
the latter. In consequence, regulatory activities across both marine and
terrestrial environments improved and an integrated biodiversity strat- 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2013:
egy7 facilitated holistic management of the region. These achievements The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
by the Antarctic Treaty System have provided a compelling illustration (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
of the power of effective management of shared international spaces. The latest comprehensive assessment of the state and future of the
The governance of Antarctica is now taught in schools worldwide as an climate system, based on observations and Earth system models
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99. Eyring, V. et al. Long-term ozone changes and associated climate Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to S.R.R.
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(2013). claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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