Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
If the event of interest is A and the event B is known or assumed to have occurred, "the conditional
probability of A given B", or "the probability of A under the condition B", is usually written as
P(A|B).
𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
P(A/B)=
𝑷(𝑩)
Thus, to determine the conditional probability P(A/B), either we directly calculate the probability
of A relative to reduced sample space B or we use 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) and P(B) on original sample space.
The conditional probability satisfies all the basic axioms of probability
(i) 0 ≤ P(A/B) ≤ 1
(ii) P(S/B)=1 , S is sample space.
(iii) 𝑃(𝐴1 𝑈 𝐴2 / B)= 𝑃(𝐴1 /B)+ 𝑃(𝐴2/B)
Question 1: Comment on the following statements:-
(a) If P(A/B) = 0, then A and B are mutually exclusive.
The statement is true because, when A and B are mutually exclusive than 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0 and
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0
P(A/B)= = 𝑃(𝐵) = 0
𝑃(𝐵)
Now,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)
Question 2: Two coins are tossed. What is the conditional probability that:-
(i) Two heads result given that there is at least one head. (PP-2019)
(ii) Two heads appear given that a head on the first coin
Solution:-
(i) The sample space when two coins are tossed is
n(S)={HH,HT,TH,TT}=4
Let A event that two heads appear.
n(A)={HH}=1
1
𝑃(𝐴) =
4
Let B even that at least one head appear.
n(B)={HT,TH,HH}=3
3
𝑃(𝐵) =
4
𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = {𝐻𝐻} = 1
1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
4
1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 4 1
P(A/B)= = 3 =
𝑃(𝐵) 3
4
Question 3: A pair of fair dice is thrown. If two numbers appeared are different, find the
probability that:-
(i) The sum is 6 (ii) The sum is 4 or less.
Solution:-
The sample space when 2 dice are rolled =62 = 36
(1,1), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), 6,1)
(1,2), (2,2), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2)
(1,3), (2,3), (3,3), (4,3), (5,3), (6,3)
𝑛(𝑆) = = 36
(1,4), (2,4), (3,4), (4,4), (5,4), (6,4)
(1,5), (2,5), (3,5), (4,5), (5,5), (6,5)
{(1,6), (2,6), (3,6), (4,6), (5,6), (6,6)}
Question 6: A bin contains 5 defective (that immediately fail when put in use), 10 partially
defective (that fail after a couple of hours of use), and 25 acceptable transistors. A transistor is
chosen at random from the bin and put into use. If it does not immediately fail, what is the
probability it is acceptable?
Solution:
Let D event transistor is defective n(D)=5
Let P event that transistor is partially defective n(P)=10
Let A event that transistor is acceptable n(A)=25.
n(S)= 5+10+25=40
We need Probability the Transistor is Acceptable given that it is not defective. That is
̅
̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐷)
P(A/𝐷 ̅)
𝑃(𝐷
35
̅ ) = 40 − 5 = 35,
𝑛(𝐷 ̅) =
𝑃(𝐷
40
Since, out of 35 non defective transistors 25 are acceptable so,
25
̅) =
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷
40
Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed
So,
25
25 5
̅) =
P(A/𝐷 40
35 = =
35 7
40
It should be noted that we could also have derived this probability by working directly with the
reduced sample space. That is, since we know that the chosen transistor is not defective, the
problem reduces to computing the probability that a transistor, chosen at random from a bin
containing 25 acceptable and 10 partially defective transistors, is acceptable. This is clearly equal
25
to 35.
Question 7: The organization that Jones works for is running a father–son dinner for those
employees having at least one son. Each of these employees is invited to attend along with his
youngest son. If Jones is known to have two children, what is the conditional probability that they
are both boys given that he is invited to the dinner? Assume that the sample space S is given by
S = {(b, b), (b, g ), ( g , b), ( g , g )} and all outcomes are equally likely [(b, g ) means, for instance,
that the younger child is a boy and the older child is a girl].
SOLUTION:
The knowledge that Jones has been invited to the dinner is equivalent to knowing that he has at
least one son. Let A event jones is invited to the dinner
3
𝑃(𝐴) =
4
the conditional probability that they are both boys given that he is invited to the dinner is P(B/A)
1
P[(b,b)]=3
Question 8: Ms. Perez figures that there is a 30 percent chance that her company will set up a
branch office in Phoenix. If it does, she is 60 percent certain that she will be made manager of this
new operation. What is the probability that Perez will be a Phoenix branch office manager?
SOLUTION:-
If we let B denote the event that the company sets up a branch office in Phoenix and M the event
that Perez is made the Phoenix manager, then the desired probability is P(B∩M),
P(B∩M) = P(B)P(M|B)
= (.3)(.6)
= .18
Question 9: Fifty-two percent of the students at a certain college are females. Five percent of the
students in this college are majoring in computer science. Two percent of the students are women
majoring in computer science. If a student is selected at random, find the conditional probability
that
(a) this student is female, given that the student is majoring in computer science;
(b) this student is majoring in computer science, given that the student is female.
Since, Two percent of the students are women majoring in computer science
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝑀) = 2% = 0.02
(a) Probability that, student is female, given that the student is majoring in computer science
𝑃(𝐹∩𝑀) 0.02 2
P(F/M)= = =
𝑃(𝑀) 0.05 5
(b) Probability that, student is majoring in computer science, given that the student is female
𝑃(𝐹∩𝑀) 0.02 2
P(M/F)= = 0.52 = 52
𝑃(𝐹)
Question 10: A box contains 4 bad and 6 good tubes. Two are drawn together. One of them is
tested and found to be good. What is the probability that the other one is also good.
Solution:
Bad Tubes =4, Good Tubes = 6, Total Tubes =10, Tubes drawn =2
10
𝑛(𝑆) = 𝐶2 = 45
Let A event that first tube is good, Let B event other tube is good
6 3
𝑃(𝐴) = 10 = 5 (First tube is drawn from total 10 tubes)
Now (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) can occur in (2 good tubes are drawn from 6 good tubes).
6
𝐶2 = 15
15 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = =
45 3
Hence,
1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 3 5
P(B/A)= = 3 =
𝑃(𝐴) 9
5
Solution:
52
𝑛(𝑆) = 𝐶5 = 2598960 (Poker hand consists of 5 cards)
4
𝐶3 48𝐶2 4 × 1128
𝑃(𝐴) = 52 = = 0.001736079
𝐶5 2598960
4
𝐶3 48𝐶2
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 52 = 0.001736079 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑆𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐵.
𝐶5
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.001736079
P(A/B)= = = 0.0416482
𝑃(𝐵) 0.04168437