Conditional Probability

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Conditional Probability

Prepared By: Prof. Farhan Hameed


Govt. Islamia Graduate College
Civil Lines Lahore.

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


Conditional Probability
In probability theory, conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event
occurring, given that another event (by assumption, presumption, assertion or evidence) has
already occurred.
When some additional information pertaining to the outcome of the experiment is the
sample space is likely to reduce. The probabilities associated to such reduced sample space are
called conditional probability.
For example, in die-throwing sample space S={1,2,3,4,5,6}, suppose we wish to know the
probability of the outcome of that die shows 6, say event A. if before seeing the outcome we are
told that the die shows an even number of dots ,say event B. then the information that die shows
even number excludes the outcomes 1,3 and 5 and thereby reduce the to B={2,4,6}. Hence, the
1
desired probability of “6” will be .
3
1
P(Die shows 6/Die shows even number)= 3

If the event of interest is A and the event B is known or assumed to have occurred, "the conditional
probability of A given B", or "the probability of A under the condition B", is usually written as
P(A|B).
𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
P(A/B)=
𝑷(𝑩)

Thus, to determine the conditional probability P(A/B), either we directly calculate the probability
of A relative to reduced sample space B or we use 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) and P(B) on original sample space.
The conditional probability satisfies all the basic axioms of probability
(i) 0 ≤ P(A/B) ≤ 1
(ii) P(S/B)=1 , S is sample space.
(iii) 𝑃(𝐴1 𝑈 𝐴2 / B)= 𝑃(𝐴1 /B)+ 𝑃(𝐴2/B)
Question 1: Comment on the following statements:-
(a) If P(A/B) = 0, then A and B are mutually exclusive.
The statement is true because, when A and B are mutually exclusive than 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0 and
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0
P(A/B)= = 𝑃(𝐵) = 0
𝑃(𝐵)

(b) If P(A/B) = 0 , then A and B are independent.


The statement is false as when A and B are independent then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) and
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
P(A/B)= = = 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵)

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


( c ) If P(A/B)= P(B/A) then P(A)=P(B)
The statement is true as
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A/B)= and P(B/A)=
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)

Now,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)
Question 2: Two coins are tossed. What is the conditional probability that:-
(i) Two heads result given that there is at least one head. (PP-2019)
(ii) Two heads appear given that a head on the first coin
Solution:-
(i) The sample space when two coins are tossed is
n(S)={HH,HT,TH,TT}=4
Let A event that two heads appear.
n(A)={HH}=1
1
𝑃(𝐴) =
4
Let B even that at least one head appear.
n(B)={HT,TH,HH}=3
3
𝑃(𝐵) =
4
𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = {𝐻𝐻} = 1
1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
4
1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 4 1
P(A/B)= = 3 =
𝑃(𝐵) 3
4

Alternatively, by using reduced sample space under the condition of Event B


n(B)={HT,TH,HH}=3
1
the probability of two heads is =
3

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


(ii) Let C is the event that Head on the first coin
n(C)={HT,HH}=2
𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = {𝐻𝐻} = 1
1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) =
4
1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐶) 4 1
P(A/C)= = 1 =
𝑃(𝐶) 2
2

Alternatively, by using reduced sample space under the condition of Event C


n(C)={HT,HH}=2

the probability of two heads is = 12

Question 3: A pair of fair dice is thrown. If two numbers appeared are different, find the
probability that:-
(i) The sum is 6 (ii) The sum is 4 or less.
Solution:-
The sample space when 2 dice are rolled =62 = 36
(1,1), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), 6,1)
(1,2), (2,2), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2)
(1,3), (2,3), (3,3), (4,3), (5,3), (6,3)
𝑛(𝑆) = = 36
(1,4), (2,4), (3,4), (4,4), (5,4), (6,4)
(1,5), (2,5), (3,5), (4,5), (5,5), (6,5)
{(1,6), (2,6), (3,6), (4,6), (5,6), (6,6)}

Let A event that sum is 6


n(A) ={(1,5).(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1)}=5
5
𝑃(𝐴) =
36
Let B event that both numbers are different
𝑛(𝐵) = 30
30
𝑃(𝐵) =
36

𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = {(1,5). (2,4), (4,2), (5,1)} = 4

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


4
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
36
4
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 36 4
P(A/B)= = 30 =
𝑃(𝐵) 30
36

Alternatively, we can use reduced sample space on the condition of Event B

(𝟏, 𝟏), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), 6,1)


(1,2), (𝟐, 𝟐), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2)
(1,3), (2,3), (𝟑, 𝟑), (4,3), (5,3), (6,3)
𝑛(𝑆) = = 30
(1,4), (2,4), (3,4), (𝟒, 𝟒), (5,4), (6,4)
(1,5), (2,5), (3,5), (4,5), (𝟓, 𝟓), (6,5)
{(1,6), (2,6), (3,6), (4,6), (5,6), (𝟔, 𝟔)}

𝑛(𝐴) = {(1,5). (2,4), (4,2), (5,1)} = 4


4
𝑃(𝐴) =
30
(ii) Let A event that sum is 4 or less
n(A) ={(1,1).(1,2),(1,3),(2,1),(2,2),(3,1)}=6
6
𝑃(𝐴) =
36
Let B event that both numbers are different
𝑛(𝐵) = 30
30
𝑃(𝐵) =
36
𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = {(1,2). (1,3), (2,1), (3,1)} = 4
4
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
36
4
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 36 4
P(A/B)= = 30 =
𝑃(𝐵) 30
36

Alternatively, using reduced sample space


𝑛(𝐴) = {(1,2). (1,3), (2,1), (3,1)} = 4
4
𝑃(𝐴) =
30

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


Question 4: If two balanced dice are rolled. What is the probability that sum of dots is 7 given
that sum is odd.
Hint: let A event sum is 7, Let B event Sum is odd.
n(A)={ (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}, n(B)=17, 𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)=6
Question 5: In a firm, 20% of the employees have accounting background, while 5% of the
employees are executives and have accounting background. If an employee has an accounting
background, what is the probability that the employee is executive.
Solution:-
Let A is event that employee has accounting back ground.
P(A)=20%=0.2
Let E be the event the employee is executive. 5% of the employees are executives and have
accounting background
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸) = 5% = 0.05
We need probability that Employee is executive given that employee has accounting background
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐸) 0.05
P(E/A)= = = 0.25 𝑜𝑟 25%
𝑃(𝐴) 0.2

Question 6: A bin contains 5 defective (that immediately fail when put in use), 10 partially
defective (that fail after a couple of hours of use), and 25 acceptable transistors. A transistor is
chosen at random from the bin and put into use. If it does not immediately fail, what is the
probability it is acceptable?
Solution:
Let D event transistor is defective n(D)=5
Let P event that transistor is partially defective n(P)=10
Let A event that transistor is acceptable n(A)=25.
n(S)= 5+10+25=40
We need Probability the Transistor is Acceptable given that it is not defective. That is
̅
̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐷)
P(A/𝐷 ̅)
𝑃(𝐷

35
̅ ) = 40 − 5 = 35,
𝑛(𝐷 ̅) =
𝑃(𝐷
40
Since, out of 35 non defective transistors 25 are acceptable so,
25
̅) =
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷
40
Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed
So,
25
25 5
̅) =
P(A/𝐷 40
35 = =
35 7
40

It should be noted that we could also have derived this probability by working directly with the
reduced sample space. That is, since we know that the chosen transistor is not defective, the
problem reduces to computing the probability that a transistor, chosen at random from a bin
containing 25 acceptable and 10 partially defective transistors, is acceptable. This is clearly equal
25
to 35.

Question 7: The organization that Jones works for is running a father–son dinner for those
employees having at least one son. Each of these employees is invited to attend along with his
youngest son. If Jones is known to have two children, what is the conditional probability that they
are both boys given that he is invited to the dinner? Assume that the sample space S is given by

S = {(b, b), (b, g ), ( g , b), ( g , g )} and all outcomes are equally likely [(b, g ) means, for instance,
that the younger child is a boy and the older child is a girl].

SOLUTION:

S = {(b, b), (b, g ), ( g , b), ( g , g )}=4

The knowledge that Jones has been invited to the dinner is equivalent to knowing that he has at
least one son. Let A event jones is invited to the dinner

𝑛(𝐴) = {(𝑏, 𝑏), (𝑏, 𝑔), (𝑔, 𝑏)} = 3

3
𝑃(𝐴) =
4

Let B is the event that both are boys

𝑛(𝐵) = {(𝑏, 𝑏)} = 1

the conditional probability that they are both boys given that he is invited to the dinner is P(B/A)

𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = {(𝑏, 𝑏)} = 1

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
4
1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 4 1
P(B/A)= = 3 =
𝑃(𝐴) 3
4

Alternatively, Working with reduced sample space

S = {(b, b), (b, g ), ( g , b)}=3

1
P[(b,b)]=3

Question 8: Ms. Perez figures that there is a 30 percent chance that her company will set up a
branch office in Phoenix. If it does, she is 60 percent certain that she will be made manager of this
new operation. What is the probability that Perez will be a Phoenix branch office manager?

SOLUTION:-

If we let B denote the event that the company sets up a branch office in Phoenix and M the event
that Perez is made the Phoenix manager, then the desired probability is P(B∩M),

which is obtained as follows:

P(B∩M) = P(B)P(M|B)

= (.3)(.6)

= .18

Question 9: Fifty-two percent of the students at a certain college are females. Five percent of the
students in this college are majoring in computer science. Two percent of the students are women
majoring in computer science. If a student is selected at random, find the conditional probability
that

(a) this student is female, given that the student is majoring in computer science;

(b) this student is majoring in computer science, given that the student is female.

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


Solution:

Let F is event that student is female P(F)=52%=0.52.

Let M be the event that student majoring in computer science P(M)=5%=0.05

Since, Two percent of the students are women majoring in computer science

𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝑀) = 2% = 0.02

(a) Probability that, student is female, given that the student is majoring in computer science

𝑃(𝐹∩𝑀) 0.02 2
P(F/M)= = =
𝑃(𝑀) 0.05 5

(b) Probability that, student is majoring in computer science, given that the student is female

𝑃(𝐹∩𝑀) 0.02 2
P(M/F)= = 0.52 = 52
𝑃(𝐹)

Question 10: A box contains 4 bad and 6 good tubes. Two are drawn together. One of them is
tested and found to be good. What is the probability that the other one is also good.

Solution:

Bad Tubes =4, Good Tubes = 6, Total Tubes =10, Tubes drawn =2

10
𝑛(𝑆) = 𝐶2 = 45

Let A event that first tube is good, Let B event other tube is good

6 3
𝑃(𝐴) = 10 = 5 (First tube is drawn from total 10 tubes)

Now (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) can occur in (2 good tubes are drawn from 6 good tubes).

6
𝐶2 = 15

15 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = =
45 3

Hence,

1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 3 5
P(B/A)= = 3 =
𝑃(𝐴) 9
5

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed


Question 11: what is the probability that a random selection of poker hand , contains exactly 3
aces , given that is contains at least 2 aces.

Solution:

52
𝑛(𝑆) = 𝐶5 = 2598960 (Poker hand consists of 5 cards)

Let A denotes event that exactly 3 aces.

4
𝐶3 48𝐶2 4 × 1128
𝑃(𝐴) = 52 = = 0.001736079
𝐶5 2598960

Let B denotes event that at least 2 aces


4𝐶 48𝐶
2 3 + 4𝐶3 48𝐶2 + 4𝐶4 48𝐶1 6 × 17296 + 4 × 1128 + 1 × 48 108336
𝑃(𝐵) = 52𝐶 = = = 0.04168437
5 2598960 2598960

4
𝐶3 48𝐶2
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 52 = 0.001736079 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑆𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐵.
𝐶5

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.001736079
P(A/B)= = = 0.0416482
𝑃(𝐵) 0.04168437

Courtesy: Prof. Farhan Hameed

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