Indonesia Company Update

3 April 2024 Basic Materials | Metals

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) Buy (Maintained)

Target Price (Return): IDR4,810 (16.5%)
Short-Term Uncertainties Impacting Share Price; BUY Price (Market Cap): IDR4,130 (USD2,615m)
ESG score: 2.9 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (IDR/USD) 59,132m/4.05m
 Still BUY, new IDR4,810 TP (DCF) from IDR6,000, 17% upside. Stable Analyst
cashflow from Vale Indonesia’s nickel-matte exposure still presents a long-
term upside. FY24F-25F earnings are revised by -39% and -32% following a Indonesia Research
cut in our ASP estimates. INCO’s share price is also under pressure due to +6221 5093 9888
market concerns on its performance going forward, with potential further rhb.id.research@rhbgroup.com
structural changes in its management. We incorporated a 2% ESG discount
into INCO’s intrinsic value, as its 2.9 ESG score is below the country median.
 Limited upside for volume growth, for now. INCO’s nickel matte production
for this year is expected to be relatively flat (+1% YoY at 70,800 tonnes), as
part of a strategy to stabilise overall margins (INCO’s EBITDA has been
relatively stable over the years; Figure 6) amidst the current downtrend in Share Performance (%)
commodity prices (FY24F average: c.USD18,500/tonne; -16% YoY vs YTD: YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
c.16,600/tonne). We expect lower production next year due to indications of Absolute (4.2) 0.7 (6.6) (25.9) (37.9)
heavy maintenance works, before output jumps back to optimal levels Relative (3.3) 2.2 (5.0) (29.4) (43.8)
(Figure 5). Note that INCO’s overall earnings are quite sensitive to changes 52-wk Price low/high (IDR) 3,660 –7,075
in ASP (±1% changes have ±5-6% impact on EPS) as it is the closest proxy to
LME movement, given the high-grade nickel content produced by INCO. Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ)
Price Close Relative to Jakarta Composite Index (RHS)
 Challenges will persist before upside factors emerge. INCO is awaiting the 7,300 111

official extension of its Special Mining Business Permit (IUPK; set to expire in 6,800 102

Dec 2025) post its share divestment to Mineral Industri Indonesia (MIND ID). 6,300 94

Note that a spokesperson from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral 5,800 85

Resources had earlier confirmed that INCO’s permit will be extended. The 5,300 76

permit is crucial for the company to meet the targeted timelines for its 4,800 67

current projects (Figure 7). While management will need more funding to 4,300 59

support its future expansions (c.US800m shortfall vs latest net cash of 3,800 50

c.USD700m), it has decided not to pursue a bond issuance for this purpose. 3,300 41
Aug-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
Apr-23
Apr-23
May-23
May-23

Oct-23
Oct-23

Dec-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Jan-24
Sep-23
Jun-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Jul-23

Nov-23
Nov-23

Mar-24
Mar-24
 We shift our valuation to DCF (Figure 1) for a broader picture of INCO’s
Source: Bloomberg
profitability from its current businesses – its cash flow remains healthy for
the foreseeable future. The share price has fallen by 39% in the past 12
months (-4% YTD, but moved up 7% post its share divestment at end-
February). INCO is now trading at c.6x EV/EBITDA (relatively close to its
mean valuation level; Figure 4).
 We expect the share price overhang to remain in place pending further Overall ESG Score: 2.9 (out of 4)
clarity on domestic factors, especially political risks, as the new Government E: GOOD
comes into power in early 4Q34. Further clarity on such factors will provide INCO received a Green PROPER (beyond compliance) –
a better view of INCO’s performance going forward, given the risk of an Indonesia’s pollution control, evaluation, and rating
overhaul of the management team (still a possibility) and potential further programme – recognition from the Ministry of Environment
stake divestments to the Government (in our view). Nevertheless, we expect & Forestry in 2020. This is for its initiatives in environmental
management systems, efficient utilisation of resources, and
INCO’s resilience to help it manage the challenges ahead.
community empowerment. INCO will contribute to Vale
Global’s goal to reduce 33% of emissions produced by 2030.
S: GOOD
A community development programme was built through
active participation between the company, the community,
Forecasts and Valuation Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
and the Government. INCO’s successful programmes
Total turnover (US Dm) 1,179 1,232 1,032 974 1,086 includes the organic rice and herbal garden businesses. In
Recurring net profit (US Dm) 216 273 136 117 136 2020, it disbursed c.USD4.1m (+21% YoY) for community
Recurring net profit growth (% ) 25.8 26.1 (50.0) (14.2) 16.5 development and empowerment.
Recurring P/E (x) 12.09 9.59 19.18 22.36 19.19 G: EXCELLENT
INCO’s sustainability management responsibilities and
P/B (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
decision-making are carried out collectively by the board of
P/CF (x) 10.24 5.94 6.69 8.07 8.28
directors, with the supervision of the board of
Dividend Yield (% ) na na na na na commissioners. Moreover, the company has a strategic risk
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.37 4.02 5.97 6.57 5.50 management, ie the Framework for Integrated Risk
Return on average equity (% ) 8.9 11.2 5.3 4.4 4.9 Management (FIRM), which is based on ISO 31000
Net debtcover
Interest to equity
(x) (% ) net42.58
cash net32.17
cash net10.85
cash net cash
7.21 net cash
7.80 standards.
Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

1
Vale Indonesia Indonesia Company Update
3 April 2024 Basic Materials | Metals

Financial Exhibits
Asia Financial s ummary (US D) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
Indonesia Recurring EPS 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01
Basic Materials BVPS 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.30
Vale Indonesia Return on average equity (% ) 8.9 11.2 5.3 4.4 4.9
INCO IJ
Valuation metrics Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
Buy
Recurring P/E (x) 12.09 9.59 19.18 22.36 19.19
P/B (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Valuation basis
FCF Yield (% ) 2.8 6.5 (9.9) (8.6) 2.5
DCF, WACC at 9%, and TG at 3% EV/EBITDA (x) 4.37 4.02 5.97 6.57 5.50
EV/EBIT (x) 6.49 5.58 11.47 15.66 12.41
Key drivers
i. Improved ASPs from the increase in nickel prices; Income s tatement (US Dm) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
ii. Higher production and sales volumes; Total turnover 1,179 1,232 1,032 974 1,086
iii. Lower fuel costs. Gross profit 314 347 205 173 204
EBITDA 436 450 362 369 418
Key risks Depreciation and amortisation (143) (126) (174) (214) (233)
i. Nickel price trends; Operating profit 294 325 188 155 185
ii. Rising fuel costs; Net interest 4 26 4 (3) (8)
iii. Lower-than-expected output; Pre-tax profit 276 353 182 159 186
iv. Shifts in domestic policies, ie higher royalty rates Taxation (75) (78) (42) (37) (43)
for certain nickel products. Reported net profit 200 274 140 122 143
Recurring net profit 216 273 136 117 136
Company Profile
Vale Indonesia produces nickel in matte, an Cas h flow (US Dm) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
intermediate product, from lateritic ores at its Change in working capital (21) 59 81 20 (9)
integrated metric and processing facilities near Cash flow from operations 255 440 391 324 316
Sorowako, Sulawesi. Capex (182) (271) (650) (550) (250)
Cash flow from investing activities (218) (286) (709) (613) (250)
Cash flow from financing activities (1) (65) 7 3 2
Cash at beginning of period 506 634 699 346 73
Net change in cash 36 89 (311) (286) 67
Ending balance cash 634 699 346 73 188

Balance s heet (US Dm) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F

Total cash and equivalents 634 699 346 73 188
Tangible fixed assets 1,550 1,696 2,346 2,896 3,146
Total investments 73 104 112 121 131
Total assets 2,658 2,926 3,052 3,177 3,339
Total long-term debt 0 0 4 4 5
Total liabilities 303 361 347 350 369
Total equity 2,355 2,565 2,705 2,827 2,970
Total liabilities & equity 2,658 2,926 3,052 3,177 3,339

Key metrics Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F

Revenue growth (% ) 23.7 4.5 (16.2) (5.6) 11.5
Recurrent EPS growth (% ) 25.8 26.1 (50.0) (14.2) 16.5
Gross margin (% ) 26.6 28.2 19.9 17.8 18.8
Operating EBITDA margin (% ) 37.0 36.6 35.1 37.9 38.5
Net profit margin (% ) 17.0 22.3 13.6 12.5 13.2
Capex/sales (% ) 15.4 22.0 63.0 56.5 23.0
Interest cover (x) 42.6 32.2 10.8 7.2 7.8

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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Vale Indonesia Indonesia Company Update
3 April 2024 Basic Materials | Metals

Figure 1: TP calculation
DCF calculation (in USDm) 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F
EBIT 188 155 185 177 173 149 145 136 124 111 98
EBIT (1-t) 145 119 143 136 133 115 112 105 95 86 76
Depreciation & amortisation 174 214 233 248 263 277 288 300 310 320 330
Changes in working capital 38 4 (9) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Capex (650) (550) (250) (200) (200) (200) (150) (150) (135) (135) (135)
Free cash flow (293) (212) 117 183 194 191 249 253 268 269 269
Discounted FCF (293) (195) 99 143 140 127 152 143 140 129 119
Terminal Value 2,022
Terminal growth 3%
WACC 9%
Total discounted firm value 2,725
24F Net debt (333)
24F Minority Interest 0
Equity value (USDm) 3,058
Equity value (IDRbn) 48,312
Issued shares (bn) 9.9
Equity value per share 4,900
Discount ESG -2%
TP (final)* 4,810
Note: Figure was rounded up due to currency translation
Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 2: WACC breakdown

Percentage of equity 89%
Percentage of debt 11%
Tax rate (t) 23%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) 9%
Cost of equity (CAPM) 9%
Risk free rate (Rf) 7%
Beta (b) 1.0
Market return (Rm) 10%
Risk premium 4%
Cost of debt (Kd) 9%
Terminal growth 3%
Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 3: RHB vs Street’s estimates

RHB (new) RHB (old) Change RHB vs Street
(USDm) 2024F 2025F 2026F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue 1,032 974 1,086 1,134 1,066 1,191 -9% -9% -9% 8% -5% -4%
Gross profit 205 173 204 305 271 309 -33% -36% -34% 8% -17% -25%
Operating profit 188 155 185 280 246 291 -33% -37% -36% 19% -21% -30%
EBITDA 362 369 418 415 355 453 -13% 4% -8% 13% 2% -6%
Net profit 140 122 143 231 181 219 -39% -32% -35% 11% -21% -29%

Margins
Gross 20% 18% 19% 27% 25% 26%
EBIT 18% 16% 17% 25% 23% 24%
EBITDA 35% 38% 39% 37% 33% 38%
NPM 14% 13% 13% 20% 17% 18%

Key assumptions
Vol. production (m tonnes) 70,800 65,000 72,500 70,000 65,000 72,500 1% 0% 0%
ASP (USD/tonne) 14,580 14,985 14,985 16,200 16,400 16,432 -10% -9% -9%
Cash cost (USD/tonne)* 8,961 8,804 8,739 9,628 10,260 9,635 -7% -14% -9%
Note: *Ex-royalty payments
Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

3
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Vale Indonesia Indonesia Company Update
3 April 2024 Basic Materials | Metals

Figure 4: INCO’s 5-year average EV/EBITDA band

(x)
13.5
 INCO is now trading near the mean level of
12.0 its 5-year historical valuation (current
+2 stdev = 10.7x
10.5 FY24F EV/EBITDA at c.6x vs multiple
9.0 +1 stdev = 8.9x target of c.7x)
7.5 mean = 7.2x  Although we have an optimistic view of a
6.0 -1 stdev = 5.5x
recovery in the global economy to spur
4.5 demand for hard commodities in general
-2 stdev = 3.8x (better selling prices), there is possibility of
3.0
changes in INCO’s management team
1.5 ahead of MIND ID’s increased control in
Mar-19

Jun-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Dec-23

Mar-24
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
the company. However, INCO’s
performance should continue regardless of
Rolling EVEBITDA mean +1stdev +2stdev -1stdev -2stdev these changes, in our view.
Source: Bloomberg, RHB

Figure 5: INCO’s nickel matte production trend

(tonnes)

83,000 81,177

77,500
Average: 72,825 tonnes  INCO’s outlook for production activities
will be better going forward, as major
72,000
maintenance works on its facility have
66,500 been completed.

61,000
60,090  Demand for nickel matte (c.76% Ni
content; Vale SA and Sumitomo as the
55,500 offtakers) will remain stable, in our view,
supported by growth in both stainless steel
50,000 and EV supply chains.
2024F

2025F

2026F
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Source: Bloomberg, RHB

Figure 6: INCO’s ASP trend vs cash cost

(USD/tonne) (IDRbn)

21,000 600

19,000
500
 Despite risks of fluctuations in energy
prices (c.20% of total cash cost; high-CV
17,000
400
coal and diesel fuel), management should
15,000 EBITDA 2016-26F CAGR: be able to manage the issue going forward
13,000
+11% YoY
300 via its renewable energy (since 1979) with
c.35% EBITDA
margin
c.365MW of hydro power, combined with
11,000 future initiatives related to gas-powered
200
9,000 utilities, and further trials on the use of EV
100 trucks
7,000

5,000 0
 INCO’s margins have been quite stable in
recent years – FY24F EBITDA margin of
2024F

2025F

2026F
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

c.35% vs 6-year average of c.30%.

EBITDA (RHS) INCO ASP Cash cost production ex-royalty

Source: Bloomberg, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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Vale Indonesia Indonesia Company Update
3 April 2024 Basic Materials | Metals

Figure 8: List of INCO’s expansions and operating assets

Total
Specific locations INCO's
Project investment Partnership COD
(in Sulawesi) ownership
(USDbn)
RKEF: 73-80k Tisco &
Morowali 2.6 49% 2026
tonnes capacity Xinhai

Pomalaa
HPAL: 120k
4.5 30%
Huayou &
2026  Massive capex (vs FY23’s net cash of
tonnes capacity Ford c.USD700m) is needed – we remain
optimistic on the realisation of these
TBA; still inside SOA HPAL: 60k
2.0 - - - projects, given the support from major
Sulawesi tonnes capacity
partners and also goodwill from the
HPAL: 60k Government.
2.0 30% Huayou 2027
tonnes capacity
Sorowako Electric Oper
furnace: c.70k - 100% - ation
tonnes capacity al
Note: RKEF (Rotary Kiln-Electric Furnace); output on Fe-Ni. HPAL (High Pressure Acid Leach); output on MHP (mixed
hydroxide precipitate). All ore feedstock needed (saprolite for RKEF (1.3-1.6% Ni content), limonite (1.0-1.2% Ni content)
for HPAL) will come from INCO’s concession area (adjacent to the smelters location) which is 100% owned by the company.
Currently INCO’s nickel matte (c.78% nickel matte) production comes from the electric furnace facility in Sorowako.
Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 9: Average nickel prices still show a potential uptrend (excluding one-off factors
from geopolitical tensions in 2022)
 At this point, we are conservatively
(USD/tonne) optimistic of positive changes in nickel
30,000 prices, based on progress in the regional
economy (especially China) to push
commodities closely related to the
25,000 industrial and manufacturing sectors.
21,487
 Nickel prices (LME) are hovering at the
20,000 18,500 support level of c.USD16,000/tonne – we
see the possibility of average prices
15,000 reaching USD18,500/tonne (requires +6%
QoQ movement until end-FY24), as better
9,606 demand coupled with lower supply
10,000
streams (pending permits for many ore
mines in Indonesia, mine closures, and
5,000 stalled smelter investments globally)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F should reduce the surplus amount (Street’s
FY24F scenario is c.100-200k tonnes, from
c.300-350k tonnes previously).
Source: Bloomberg, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

5
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Vale Indonesia Indonesia Company Update
3 April 2024 Basic Materials | Metals

Emissions And ESG

Trend analysis Emis s ions (tCO2e) Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
INCO has not yet calculated scope 3 emissions but is S cope 1 na na na
gradually trying to reduce GHG emissions from its supply
S cope 2 1,971,075 1,640,387 na
chain activities. Efforts to reduce emissions are
progressing well despite fluctuations in the volume of GHG S cope 3 na na na
emissions every year (influenced by the proportion of fuel
Total emissions 1,971,075 1,640,387 na
used in operations and amount of production). INCO is
committed to reducing absolute GHG emissions from Source: Company data, RHB
scopes 1 and 2 by 33% by 2030 and achieving net zero
emissions by 2050.

For its nickel processing activities, INCO partly uses

hydropower energy. Almost 94% of its electrical energy
(besides fuel and coal) needs are obtained from three
hydro-powered plants (PLTA): Larona (165 MW),
Balambano (110 MW), and Karambe (90 MW). Of the total
365 MW of electricity output, c.11 MW were distributed to
residential areas and its surroundings.

Latest ESG-Related Developments

 INCO's main nickel plant in Sorowako has a carbon intensity of 27.30 tonnes of CO2eq/tonnes
Ni, giving the company amongst the lowest carbon intensity levels in Indonesia.

 INCO started testing electric cars and trucks for operational purposes in Jan and Aug 2022.
 INCO has been progressively reclaiming post-mining land, targeting the reclamation of 70% of
the total area by 2025, and rehabilitating watersheds. The area of land rehabilitated in 2022 is
10,280 hectares, comprising 10,000 hectares outside the operational area and 296 hectares
within the operational area. The company also planted 3.7m trees, including endemic species.

ESG Rating History

4.0

3.5

3.0
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

2.5

2.0

1.5

Source: RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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Vale Indonesia Indonesia Company Update
3 April 2024 Basic Materials | Metals

Recommendation Chart
Date Rec ommendation Target Pric e Pric e
Price Close
2024-02-13 Buy 6,000 4,050
8,860 Recommendations & Target Price 2023-12-05 Buy 6,000 4,320
na

5,900

6,600

6,200

6,500

6,000
7,940
9,000
7,700

7,600 8,300

8,300

7,120
6,000
7,860 2023-10-30 Buy 7,120 5,225

6,860 2023-07-21 Buy 8,300 6,600

2023-02-17 Buy 8,300 6,775
5,860
2023-01-03 Buy 8,300 7,100
4,860
2022-10-31 Buy 7,600 6,500
3,860 2022-10-18 Buy 8,300 6,650
2,860 2022-07-04 Buy 7,700 5,450
1,860 2022-05-23 Buy 9,000 7,725
2022-04-04 Buy 7,940 6,975
860 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

2022-01-30 Buy 6,000 4,700

Apr-19 Jul-20 Oct-21 Jan-23
2021-11-01 Buy 6,500 4,800
Source: RHB, Bloomberg 2021-08-15 Buy 6,200 5,100
2021-03-04 Neutral 6,600 5,525

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report

7
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Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies made pursuant to the policy of the 2. RHBIB is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the
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products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.

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(1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market
products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:

Analyst Company
- -

(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

KUALA LUMPUR JAKARTA

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