CS Equity Research Citi Report
CS Equity Research Citi Report
CS Equity Research Citi Report
Americas/United States
Equity Research
Large Cap Banks
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CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION®
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
14 April 2016
■ Important Discussion Points on the Call: (1) the macro outlook—interest rates/the yield
curve, U.S/global GDP growth, (2) the capital markets environment—the month to month
progression in trading revenues and the current trading environment/activity levels
(prospects for a recapture of lost momentum in 1Q16); the health of the investment banking
pipeline and strategic dialogue, and the competitive landscape in FICC/market share
consolidation prospects; (3) organic growth initiatives—the level of incremental investment
spend required from here to solidify prospects, (4) update on asset dispositions (anything
new on the list), (5) Citi Holdings post the OneMain sale (residual expenses), (6) Costco
portfolio update, (7) emerging markets credit quality/growth prospects, (8) credit quality—
contagion risk/evidence; reserve adequacy, and (9) regulatory update—CCAR 2016 capital
return prospects—(a) why didn't Citi apply for additional repurchase under the de minimis
rule? (b) kudos on the Living Will results.
In the aftermath of JPMorgan's results… look for trading revenues down no more than
~15% year/year with similar commentary about the month to month improvement in market
conditions with respect to both trading and banking, as we set up for 2Q16. In terms of credit,
expect similar stability on the consumer side; trends/deterioration no worse than JPM in terms
of energy—expect manageable loss realization, at this point.
Global consumer revenues expected to be down slightly on a sequential basis, reflecting usual seasonality in
GCB Revenue
cards business.
1Q'16 Expect core expenses in Citicorp to be flat sequentially, but expect a repositioning charge of ~$400mm to resize
Expenses
Guidance infrastructure and capacity.
Expect cost of credit of corporate bank in 1Q16 to be ~$350mm, most of which is related to energy. Expect
Credit Quality funded reserve level of about 4.5% against energy. ICG cost of credit in 1H16 should be more in line with the run
rate in 3Q15 (~$600mm in total for the first half).
Plan to exit ~50 branches in 1Q16, including Boston area branches. With these actions over 90% of branch
Strategic actions
footprints will be concentrated in 6 key markets.
Expect to return to growth in both total loans and revenues in the latter part of 2016 before the benefit of acquiring
the Costco portfolio (including continued effort to invest in U.S. cards). Expect to achieve low single-digit revenue
Revenue
growth in Citicorp while staying disciplined around target client strategy (modest level of rate increases built into
tail end of the year, one towards the middle of the year and another at the end of the year).
Expect Asia and Latin America revenues to stabilize in 1H16 and as volumes grow expect to see the sequential
growth in revenue. Look to return to positive operating leverage in 2H16. Expect the Consumer portfolios to be
International Business
more resilient than the broader market given focus on higher quality segments. Expect cards payment rate in
Mexico to remain elevated given the focus on higher credit quality segment of the market.
Net interest margin in 2016 will reflect the loss of OneMain earnings partially offset by the benefit of debt
buybacks for a net reduction of about 8 bps. Expect to recover 3 bps of this impact after acquisition of the
Costco portfolio which currently expect to occur closer to the end of 2Q15. Expect to see a benefit from higher
NIM/NII
rates through the year, but this rate benefit could be all or partially offset if trading NIM normalizes in 2016. Given
all these factors, expect NIM to be in the range of 285 - 290 bps for the 1H16 and then it will reflect Costco in the
second half.
Full Year Citicorp efficiency ratio should remain relatively unchanged at ~57% this year, before improving in 2017 and
2016 thereafter. Expect to drive efficiency ratio gain in core businesses as Citi continues to streamline operations,
Efficiency Ratio
adjust capacity, and capture the benefits of scale. Goal is to fund investments through additional operational
efficiencies.
Expect credit costs to be higher in 2016 as loan loss reserve releases are largely behind us, but the run rate for
Credit Quality full year 2016 should be somewhat lower than that in 4Q15. If oil were to drop to say $25 a barrel and stay there
for a sustained period of time then the first half cost of credit might double.
Tax Rate Tax rate expected to remain in the range of 30-31%.
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
I, Susan Roth Katzke, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and
securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in
this report.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Citigroup Inc. (C.N)
C.N Closing Price Target Price Target Price Closing Price C.N
Date (US$) (US$) Rating 70
15-Apr-13 44.87 53.00 O
22-May-13 51.00 60.00 60
01-Oct-13 48.60 65.00
07-Apr-14 46.55 62.00 50
30-Sep-14 51.82 NR
40
07-Jan-15 51.17 60.00 N*
16-Apr-15 54.02 62.00 30
28-Sep-15 49.03 62.00 O 1- Jan- 14 1- Jan- 15 1- Jan- 16
15-Jan-16 42.47 58.00
O U T PERFO RM
26-Feb-16 39.50 57.00 N O T RA T ED
08-Mar-16 41.05 55.00 N EU T RA L
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