Draft Ac 25.1309-1B
Draft Ac 25.1309-1B
Draft Ac 25.1309-1B
Department Advisory
of Transportation
Federal Aviation
Administration
Circular
This advisory circular (AC) describes acceptable means, but not the only means, for showing
compliance with the requirements of title 14, Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR) 25.1309,
Equipment, systems, and installations. These means are intended to provide guidance to
supplement the engineering and operational judgment that form the basis of any showing of
compliance.
Revision B of this AC contains new guidance based on proposed rule changes to § 25.1309. You
can find those proposed changes in Notice of Proposed Rulemaking titled System Safety
Assessments, Notice No. **. That NPRM was published in the Federal Register on ** (** FR
**) and is available on the Internet at http://www.regulations.gov/ under Docket No. FAA-2022-
1544. The FAA recommends that you refer to that NPRM before reading and commenting on
this proposed AC.
If you have suggestions for improving this AC, you may use the Advisory Circular Feedback
form at the end of this AC.
Victor Wicklund
Acting Director, Policy and Innovation Division
Aircraft Certification Service
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
CONTENTS
Paragraph Page
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CONTENTS (CONTINUED)
Paragraph Page
6.3 Considerations when Assessing Failure Condition Effects. ......................................... 6-2
Chapter 7. Assessment of Failure Condition Probabilities and Analysis Considerations ........... 7-1
7.1 General. ......................................................................................................................... 7-1
7.2 Assessment of Failure Condition Probabilities. ............................................................ 7-1
7.3 Single Failure Considerations. ...................................................................................... 7-2
7.4 Common Cause Failure Considerations........................................................................ 7-2
7.5 Depth of Analysis. ........................................................................................................ 7-3
7.6 Calculation of Average Probability per Flight Hour (Quantitative Analysis). ............. 7-5
7.7 Integrated Systems. ....................................................................................................... 7-6
7.8 Operational or Environmental Conditions. ................................................................... 7-7
7.9 Justification of Assumptions, Data Sources, and Analytical Techniques. .................... 7-8
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CONTENTS (CONTINUED)
FIGURES
Number Page
Figure 4-1. Relationship between Probability and Severity of Failure Condition Effects .......... 4-1
TABLES
Number Page
Table 4-1. Relationship between Probability and Severity of Failure Conditions ...................... 4-2
Table D-1. Example of CSL+1 Identification for § 25.1309(b)(5) Compliance ........................ D-2
Table E-1. Environmental Factors ............................................................................................... E-1
Table E-2. Airplane Configurations ............................................................................................. E-2
Table E-3. Flight Conditions........................................................................................................ E-2
Table E-4. Mission Dependencies ............................................................................................... E-3
Table E-5. Other Events ............................................................................................................... E-3
Table G-1. Acronyms and Definitions ........................................................................................ G-1
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1.1 Purpose.
1.1.1 This AC describes acceptable means, but not the only means, for showing compliance
with 14 CFR 25.1309, Equipment, systems, and installations. These means are intended
to provide guidance to supplement the engineering and operational judgment that form
the basis of any showing of compliance. The contents of this document do not have the
force and effect of law and are not meant to bind the public in any way. This document
is intended only to provide clarity to the public regarding existing requirements under
the law or agency policies.
1.1.2 Revision B of this AC contains new guidance based on proposed rule changes to
§ 25.1309, which the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) published in the Federal
Register as NPRM Notice No. **, System Safety Assessment (** FR **). This revision
also improves upon the materials published in AC 25.1309-1A by providing more
substantive guidance on safety analysis methods.
1.2 Applicability.
1.2.1.2 Conformity with the guidance is voluntary only and nonconformity will
not affect rights and obligations under existing statutes and regulations.
The FAA will consider other methods of demonstrating compliance that
an applicant may elect to present. Terms such as “should,” “may,” and
“must” are used only in the sense of ensuring applicability of this
particular method of compliance when the acceptable method of
compliance in this document is used. If the FAA becomes aware of
circumstances in which following this AC would not result in compliance
with the applicable regulations, the agency may require additional
substantiation as the basis for finding compliance.
1.2.2.2 Although the applicant does not need to account for § 25.1309 when
showing compliance with the performance and flight characteristics
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1.2.2.3 Jams of flight control surfaces or pilot controls covered by § 25.671(c) are
excepted from the requirements of § 25.1309(b)(1)(ii).
1.2.2.5 The failure effects covered by §§ 25.810(a)(1)(v) and 25.812 are excepted
from the requirements of § 25.1309(b). The failure conditions associated
with these cabin safety equipment installations are associated with varied
evacuation scenarios for which the probability cannot be determined due
to the multitude of factors that can lead to an evacuation. For these types
of equipment, the FAA has not been able to define appropriate scenarios
under which an applicant could demonstrate compliance with
§ 25.1309(b). Therefore, the FAA considers it acceptable in terms of
safety to require particular design features or specific reliability
demonstrations for these types of equipment, and to exclude these
equipment items from the requirements of § 25.1309(b). Traditionally, the
FAA has found this approach acceptable.
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1.2.2.10 Section 25.954, Fuel system lightning protection, regulates that subject.
Refer to AC 25.954-1, Transport Airplane Fuel System Lightning
Protection, dated September 24, 2018, for guidance on the safety
assessment of fuel tank lightning protection.
1.2.2.12 Applicants should also account for risks to persons other than airplane
occupants, such as ground crew, when assessing systems failure
conditions for compliance with § 25.1309. Such risks include threats to
people on the ground or adjacent to the airplane during ground operations,
electric shock threats to mechanics, and other similar situations. Because
such risks to individuals are usually less significant in comparison with the
risk to the airplane and its larger number of occupants, the FAA has not
typically required applicants to address these risks in demonstrating
compliance with § 25.1309. However, the FAA would find proposed
designs non-compliant if the design included an unacceptable potential
threat to persons outside the airplane or to line mechanics.
1.3 Cancellation.
This AC cancels AC 25.1309-1A, dated June 21, 1988.
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1.5 Definitions.
The following definitions apply to the system design and analysis requirements of
§ 25.1309 and the guidance material in this AC; several are restatements of the
definitions in the rule. You should not assume that these definitions apply to the same or
similar terms used in other regulations or ACs. The FAA has not defined terms for
which standard dictionary definitions apply.
1.5.1 Analysis.
The terms “analysis” and “assessment” are used throughout this AC. The two terms are
to some extent interchangeable. However, “analysis” generally implies a more specific,
more detailed evaluation, while “assessment” may be a more general or broader
evaluation but may include one or more types of analysis. In practice, the meaning
comes from the specific application, for example, fault tree analysis, Markov analysis,
preliminary system safety assessment (PSSA), and so forth.
1.5.2 Assessment.
See the definition of analysis above.
1.5.6 Complex.
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A system is complex when its operation, failure modes, or failure effects are difficult to
comprehend without the aid of analytical methods.
1.5.7 Conventional.
A system is conventional if its functionality, the technological means used to implement
its functionality, and its intended usage are all the same as, or closely similar to, that of
previously approved systems that are commonly used.
1.5.10 Error.
An omission or incorrect action by a crewmember or maintenance personnel, or a
mistake in requirements, design, or implementation.
1.5.11 Event.
An occurrence that has its origin distinct from the airplane, such as atmospheric
conditions (e.g., gusts, temperature variations, icing, and lightning strikes); runway
conditions; conditions of communication, navigation, and surveillance services;
bird-strike; and cabin and baggage fires (not initiated by features installed on the
airplane); etc. The term does not cover sabotage or other similar intentional acts.
1.5.12 Failure.
An occurrence that affects the operation of a component, part, or element such that it no
longer functions as intended. This includes both loss of function and malfunction.
Note: Errors and events may cause failures or influence their effects, but are not
considered to be failures.
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1.5.16 Qualitative.
Those analytical processes that assess system and airplane safety in a non-numerical
manner.
1.5.17 Quantitative.
Those analytical processes that apply numerical methods and statistical analyses to
assess system and airplane safety.
1.5.18 Redundancy.
The presence of more than one independent means for accomplishing a given function
or flight operation.
1.5.21 System.
A combination of components, parts, and elements that is interconnected to perform one
or more functions.
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CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND
2.1 General.
2.1.1 The FAA is issuing this AC concurrently with a number of rule changes that address
system safety, such as §§ 25.302, 25.629, 25.671, 25.901, 25.933, 25.1309, and others.
The agency developed these rule changes, and corresponding advisory material, based
on recommendations from several working groups under the Aviation Rulemaking
Advisory Committee (ARAC).
2.1.2 In 2010, the ARAC Airplane-Level Safety Analysis Working Group (ASAWG)
provided recommendations for changes to §§ 25.1301 and 25.1309. The ASAWG also
recommended changes to the corresponding advisory material, and the FAA used these
recommendations to develop this AC.
2.1.3 In the early years of aviation, airplane systems were evaluated to specific requirements:
to the “single fault” criterion, or to the fail-safe design concept, which are explained
below. As later-generation airplanes developed, their designers added more
safety-critical functions, which generally resulted in an increase in the complexity of the
systems designed to perform these functions. A safety-critical function was a function
whose failure would result in a catastrophic accident. The potential hazards to the
airplane and its occupants, in the event of failure of one or more functions provided by a
system, had to be considered, as did the interaction between systems performing
different functions. To assess the safety of a complex system—and the adequacy of
system redundancy to meet the fail-safe criterion—the FAA began assigning statistical
probabilities to system failures in AC 25.1309-1, dated September 7, 1982. The
agency’s primary objective was to ensure that the proliferation of safety-critical systems
would not increase the probability of a catastrophic accident. The FAA assigned
numerical values to the qualitative probabilistic terms in the requirements, for use in
those cases where the impact of system failures is examined by quantitative methods of
analysis. However, numerical values were intended to supplement, not replace,
qualitative methods based on engineering and operational judgment. See appendix A for
a historical perspective of the use of statistical probabilities in system safety assessment.
2.2.1 In fail-safe design, the following basic objectives pertaining to failures apply:
2.2.1.1 In any system or subsystem, the failure of any single element, component,
or connection during any one flight must be assumed, regardless of its
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2.2.1.2 Subsequent failures during the same flight, whether detected or latent, and
combinations thereof, must also be assumed. If the effect of a subsequent
failure or failures when combined with the first failure is catastrophic, then
their joint probability with the first failure must be shown to be extremely
improbable.
2.2.2 The fail-safe design concept uses the following design principles or techniques in order
to ensure a safe design. The use of only one of these principles or techniques is seldom
adequate. A combination of two or more is usually needed to provide a fail-safe design,
in other words, to ensure that major failure conditions are remote, hazardous failure
conditions are extremely remote, and catastrophic failure conditions are extremely
improbable.
2.2.2.1 Designed Integrity and Quality, including Life Limits, to ensure intended
function and prevent failures.
2.2.2.6 Flightcrew Procedures specifying corrective action for use after failure
detection.
2.2.2.8 Designed Failure Effect Limits, including the capability to sustain damage
to limit the safety impact or effects of a failure.
2.2.2.9 Designed Failure Path to control and direct the effects of a failure in a way
that limits its safety impact.
2.2.2.11 Error Tolerance that considers adverse effects of foreseeable errors during
the airplane’s design, test, manufacture, operation, and maintenance.
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3.1 Classifications.
The FAA classifies failure conditions according to the severity of their effects as
defined in paragraphs 3.1.1 through 3.1.5 below.
Note: The definitions provided for major, hazardous, and catastrophic failure conditions
are the same as those found in § 25.4.
3.1.2 Minor.
A failure condition that would not significantly reduce airplane safety and would only
involve flightcrew actions that are well within their capabilities. Minor failure
conditions may result in, for example—
• A slight reduction in safety margins or functional capabilities,
• A slight increase in flightcrew workload, such as routine flight plan changes,
• Some physical discomfort to passengers or flight attendants, or
• An effect of similar severity.
3.1.3 Major.
A failure condition that would reduce the capability of the airplane or the ability of the
flightcrew to cope with adverse operating conditions, to the extent that there would
be—
• A significant reduction in safety margins or functional capabilities,
• A significant increase in flightcrew workload or in conditions impairing the
efficiency of the flightcrew,
• Physical distress to passengers or flight attendants, possibly including injuries, or
• An effect of similar severity.
3.1.4 Hazardous.
A failure condition that would reduce the capability of the airplane or the ability of the
flightcrew to cope with adverse operating conditions to the extent that there would be—
• A large reduction in safety margins or functional capabilities,
• Physical distress or excessive workload such that the flightcrew cannot be relied
upon to perform their tasks accurately or completely, or
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MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
• Serious or fatal injuries to a relatively small number of persons other than the
flightcrew.
Note: For the purpose of performing a safety assessment, a “small number” of fatal
injuries means one such injury.
3.1.5 Catastrophic.
A failure condition that would result in multiple fatalities, usually with the loss of the
airplane.
Note: A catastrophic failure condition was defined in previous versions of the rule and
advisory material as a failure condition that would prevent continued safe flight and
landing. Continued safe flight and landing was defined in AC 25.1309-1A as: “The
capability for continued controlled flight and landing at a suitable airport, possibly
using emergency procedures, but without requiring exceptional pilot skill or strength.
Some airplane damage may be associated with a failure condition, during flight or upon
landing.” For the purpose of performing a safety assessment, “multiple fatalities” means
two or more fatalities.
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3.2.4.1.1 The FAA’s objective of using this term in the system safety regulations
has been to describe a condition (usually a failure condition) that has a
probability of occurrence so remote that it is not anticipated to occur in
service on any transport category airplane to which the standard applies.
However, while a rule sets a minimum standard for all the airplanes to
which it applies, the FAA’s compliance determinations are limited to
applications for individual type certificates. Consequently, in practice, the
applicant should provide a sufficiently conservative demonstration that a
condition is not anticipated to occur in service during the entire
operational life of all airplanes under a type certificate application being
assessed. Experience indicates that the level of conservatism provided in
properly performed safety assessments more than compensates for the
cumulative risk across airplane types and the foreseeable growth in size
and utilization of the overall transport fleet.
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3.3.1 When using quantitative analyses to help determine compliance with § 25.1309(b), the
following descriptions of the probability terms used in this requirement and AC have
become commonly accepted as aids to engineering judgment. They are expressed in
terms of acceptable ranges for the average probability per flight hour. Those probability
terms and ranges are as follows:
3.3.2 The use of numerical probability methods supplements, but does not replace, qualitative
assessments based on engineering and operational judgments. The above numerical
values associated with the probabilistic terms in § 25.1309(b) are guidelines for
acceptable risk when applicants use quantitative probability methods of analysis to
examine the effect of system failures. A design that meets these guidelines provides
some, but not necessarily sufficient, evidence to support a finding by the FAA as to
whether the design complies with the rule.
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Figure 4-1. Relationship between Probability and Severity of Failure Condition Effects
Probable
Probability of Failure Condition
Unacceptable
Remote
Extremely
Remote Acceptable
Extremely
Improbable
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Classification
No Safety
of Failure Minor Major Hazardous Catastrophic
Effect
Conditions
Allowable No Probability On the order On the order On the order of On the order
Quantitative Requirement of 10-3 or less, of 10-5 or less, 10-7 or less, but of 10-9 or less
Probability but greater but greater greater than the
range: than the order than the order order of 10-9
Values shown of 10-5* of 10-7
are Average
Probability
per Flight
Hour:
*
The applicant is not required to perform a quantitative analysis, nor substantiate by such analysis that
this numerical criterion (less than 10-3 but greater than 10-5) has been met for minor failure conditions.
A numerical probability range is provided here as a reference. Current transport category airplane
products are regarded as meeting this standard simply by using current commonly-accepted industry
practice.
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4.3.3 Each catastrophic failure condition is remote following any single latent failure in a
catastrophic single latent plus one (CSL+1) failure condition. The probability of the
latent failure must not exceed 1/1000.
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5.1 Overview.
This chapter describes specific means of compliance with § 25.1309. The applicant
would benefit from obtaining early agreement from the FAA on its chosen means of
compliance.
5.2.2 In addition to the external operating and environmental conditions, the effect of the
operating and environmental conditions within the airplane should be considered.
Examples of these effects include the following: vibration and acceleration loads,
variations in fluid pressure and electrical power, fluid or vapor contamination due to
either the normal environment or accidental leaks or spillage and handling by personnel,
heat radiated from nearby equipment, and electromagnetic emission from installed
equipment. RTCA Document DO-160G defines a series of standard environmental test
conditions and procedures that may be used to support compliance. Environmental test
procedures contained in technical standard orders (TSOs) or other environmental test
standards approved for equipment qualifications can be used to support compliance.
The conditions under which the installed equipment will be operated should be equal to
or less severe than the environment for which the equipment is qualified.
5.2.3 The applicant may substantiate the proper functioning of equipment, systems, and
installations under the operating and environmental conditions approved for the airplane
by test and/or analysis, or reference to comparable service experience on other airplanes
if shown to be valid for the proposed installation. For the equipment, systems, and
installations covered by § 25.1309(a)(1), the compliance demonstration should also
confirm that their normal functioning does not interfere with the proper functioning of
other equipment, systems, or installations covered by § 25.1309(a)(1).
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5.2.4 The equipment, systems, and installations addressed by § 25.1309(a)(2) are typically
those associated with miscellaneous systems intended for convenience, such as
passenger amenities, passenger entertainment systems, in-flight telephones, and so
forth, whose failure or improper functioning should not affect the safety of the airplane.
In other words, these types of systems should be designed so that the severity of their
functional failures should be “no safety effect.” (See paragraph 3.1.1 of this AC.)
Therefore, the qualification requirements for such equipment, systems, and installations
can be reduced to the necessary tests for showing that their normal or abnormal
functioning does not adversely affect the proper functioning of the equipment, systems,
or installations covered by § 25.1309(a)(1), or the safety of the airplane or its
occupants. Examples of adverse effects include fire, explosion, exposing passengers to
high voltages, and so forth. The FAA expects normal installation practices to result in
sufficiently obvious isolation of the impacts of such equipment on safety that
substantiation can be based on a relatively simple qualitative installation evaluation. If
the possible effects, including failure modes, are questionable, or isolation between
systems is provided by complex means, then more formal structured evaluation methods
or a design change may be necessary.
5.3.1 General.
Appendix C of this AC provides an overview of the typical safety assessment process.
Compliance with the requirements of § 25.1309(b) should be shown by analysis and,
where necessary, by appropriate ground, flight, or simulator tests. Failure conditions
should be identified and their effects assessed. The maximum allowable probability of
the occurrence of each failure condition is determined from the failure condition’s
effects. When assessing the probabilities of failure conditions, appropriate analysis
considerations should be accounted for. Any analysis should consider the following:
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5.3.1.1 Possible failure conditions and their causes, modes of failure, and damage
from sources external to the system.
5.3.1.4 The effect of reasonably anticipated crew errors after the occurrence of a
failure or failure condition.
5.3.1.6 The crew alerting cues, corrective action required, and the capability of
detecting faults.
5.3.1.7 The resulting effects on the airplane and occupants, considering the stage
of flight, the operational sequences (sequence of system responses or
expected crew actions following a failure(s)), and operating and
environmental conditions.
5.3.2 Planning.
This AC provides guidance on methods of accomplishing the safety objective. The
detailed methodology needed to achieve this safety objective depends on many factors,
particularly, the degree of system complexity and integration. For proposed airplane
designs that will contain many complex or integrated systems, it is likely that the
applicant will need to develop a plan to describe the intended process. In general, the
extent and structure of the analyses to show compliance with § 25.1309 will be greater
when the system is more complex and the effects of the failure conditions are more
severe. Industry standards such as those listed in paragraph 1.4.4 of this AC provide
further information on the planning activity. This plan should include consideration of
all of the following aspects:
5.3.2.3 Means for validating the accomplishment of the plan (for example, flight
test, ground test, analysis, qualification test, and so forth), including how
the plan is followed throughout the project to ensure completion.
5.3.2.4 Validation of any derived safety requirements needed to manage the many
interactions between systems, and verification that the system design
meets those requirements.
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5.3.4.1 Paragraph 5.3.1.3 of this AC states that any analysis necessary to show
compliance with § 25.1309(b) should consider the possibility of
requirement, design, and implementation errors. Errors made during the
design and development of systems have traditionally been detected and
corrected by exhaustive tests conducted on the system and its components,
by direct inspection, and by other direct verification methods capable of
completely characterizing the performance of the system. These direct
techniques may still be appropriate for simple systems, which perform a
limited number of functions and are not highly integrated with other
airplane systems.
5.3.4.2 For integrated systems that perform complex functions, exhaustive testing
might be either impossible because all of the system states (within a
particular system and within the interfacing systems) cannot be
determined, or impractical because of the number of tests that must be
accomplished. For these types of systems, the applicant may use
development assurance techniques to minimize errors. The rigor of
development assurance should be determined by the severity of potential
effects on the airplane in case of system malfunctions or loss of functions.
Acceptable guidelines for development assurance are described in—
• AC 20-174 and SAE ARP 4754A for aircraft and systems,
• AC 20-115D and RTCA Document DO-178C for software, and
• AC 20-152 and RTCA Document DO-254 for airborne electronic
hardware.
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5.3.5.1 Where the applicant’s analysis identifies some indication to, and/or action
by, the flightcrew, cabin crew, or maintenance personnel is necessary to
show that the design complies with § 25.1309(b), the applicant should
accomplish all of the activities in paragraphs 5.3.5.1.1 through 5.3.5.1.3.
For these activities, it is acceptable to assume a fully functional indication,
except for the control system failures being indicated.
5.3.5.1.1 Verify that any identified indications are actually provided by the system.
This includes verification that the sensor coverage and logic that detects
the situations and triggers the indicator is sufficient to always detect the
situations considering various causes, flight phases, operating conditions,
operational sequences, and environments.
5.3.5.1.3 Verify that any actions required have an acceptable expectation of being
accomplished successfully and in a timely manner.
5.3.5.3 In complex situations, the results of the review by specialists may need to
be confirmed by simulator, ground tests, or flight tests. However,
quantitative assessments of the probabilities of crew or maintenance errors
are not currently considered feasible. If the failure indications are
considered to be recognizable and the required actions do not cause an
excessive workload, then for the purposes of the analysis, such corrective
actions can be considered to be satisfactorily accomplished. If the
necessary actions cannot be satisfactorily accomplished, the tasks and/or
the systems need to be modified.
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2. Second, for any SLF for which elimination is not practical, the
applicant must limit its latency by minimizing the time to the failure is
allowed to be present such that the product of this exposure time and
the average failure rate of the SLF does not exceed 1/1000, as required
by § 25.1309(b)(4)(i).
3. Finally, if the FAA finds it would be impractical for the applicant to
comply with paragraph (b)(4)(i), the applicant must minimize the time
the failure is expected to be present, as required by § 25.1309(b)(4)(ii).
There can be situations where it is not practical to meet the 1/1000
criterion. For example, if meeting it would result in performing
complex or invasive maintenance tasks on the flight line, thereby
increasing the risk of incorrect maintenance and associated cost, the
agency may find it is not practical for the applicant to meet the 1/1000
criterion . In such situations, safety is better served when the latent
failure is serviced at a suitable maintenance facility, even though a
longer inspection interval means the probability of the latent failure
existing would exceed 1/1000, but is below the limit established by the
extremely improbable criterion in § 25.1309(b)(1). In cases where the
applicant can demonstrate that meeting the 1/1000 criterion is not
practical, the applicant must minimize the time the failure is expected
to be present.
5.3.6.3 For a catastrophic failure condition that involves two failures, either of
which could be latent for more than one flight, compliance with
§ 25.1309(b)(5) is required. These failure conditions are denoted as
CSL+1. The applicant must first show that it is impractical to design the
system with additional fault tolerance, such as adding failure monitors.
Once an applicant has shown that CSL+1 conditions are eliminated to the
extent practical, the applicant could then apply the criteria in
§ 25.1309(b)(5)(ii) and (iii) to limit the residual risk in the presence of a
latent failure and limit the probability of occurrence of the latent failure
itself. These requirements are applied in addition to the requirement of
§ 25.1309(b)(1) where catastrophic failure conditions must be shown to be
extremely improbable and do not result from a single failure.
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5.4.1 Section 25.1309(c) requires that information concerning unsafe system operating
conditions be provided to the flightcrew to enable them to take appropriate corrective
action, thereby mitigating the effects of the condition. Any system operating condition
that, if not detected and properly accommodated by flightcrew action, would contribute
to or cause one or more serious injuries should be considered an unsafe system
operating condition. Compliance with this requirement usually relies on the analysis
identified in paragraph 5.3.1 of this AC, which also includes consideration of crew
alerting cues, required corrective action, and the capability of detecting faults.
Section 25.1309(c) further requires that the applicant design the systems and controls,
including indication and annunciation, to minimize crew errors that could create
additional hazards. The required information may be provided by dedicated indication
and/or annunciation whose forms and functions meet the requirements of § 25.1322 or
made apparent by the inherent airplane responses. The required information depends on
the degree of urgency for recognition and corrective action by the crew.
5.4.2 Acceptable flightcrew awareness means may be, but are not limited to—
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MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
5.4.3 When a system provides failure monitoring and indication, system reliability should be
compatible with the safety objectives associated with the system function and failure
conditions for which it provides that indication. For example, if the effects of having a
failure and not annunciating that failure are catastrophic, not only must the combination
of the failure with the failure of its annunciation be extremely improbable, but the loss
of annunciation should be considered a major failure condition in and of itself due to the
impact on the ability of the crew to cope with the subject failure. In addition, the
applicant should assess unwanted operation (for example, nuisance warnings). The
failure monitoring and indication should be reliable, technologically feasible, and
economically practicable. Reliable failure monitoring and indication should use current
state-of-the-art technology to maximize the probability of detecting and indicating
genuine failures, while minimizing the probability of falsely detecting and indicating
non-existent failures. Any indication to the flightcrew should be timely, obvious, clear,
and unambiguous.
5.4.4 In the case of airplane conditions requiring immediate crew action, a suitable warning
indication must be provided to the crew in accordance with § 25.1322, if not provided
by inherent airplane characteristics (for example, buffeting). In either case, any warning
should be rousing and should occur at a point in a potentially catastrophic sequence
where the airplane’s capability and the crew’s ability still remain sufficient for effective
crew action to prevent the catastrophic outcome.
5.4.5 Unless they are accepted as normal airmanship, procedures for the crew to follow after
the occurrence of failure warning must be described in the FAA -approved AFM in
accordance with §§ 25.1581 and 25.1585, or AFM revision or supplement. Consult
FAA Flight Standards Service flight training documents such as FAA-S-8081-5F,
Airline Transport Pilot and Aircraft Type Rating Practice Test Standards for Airplane,
for understanding of “normal airmanship.”
5.4.7 The use of periodic maintenance or flightcrew checks to detect SLFs after they occur is
undesirable and should not be used in place of practical and reliable failure monitoring
and indications. Where such monitoring and indications cannot be accomplished, see
paragraph 5.3.6 of this AC for guidance. Chapter 8 of this AC provides further guidance
on the use of periodic maintenance or flightcrew checks. Comparison with similar,
5-8
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
5.4.8 Applicants should give particular attention to the placement of switches or other control
devices, relative to one another, to minimize the potential for inadvertent incorrect
flightcrew action, especially during emergencies or periods of high workload. Extra
protection, such as the use of guarded switches, may sometimes be needed. See AC
25.1302-1 for additional guidance on design attributes related to the avoidance and
management of flightcrew error.
5-9
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
6-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
6.2.1 Before an applicant proceeds with a detailed safety assessment, an FHA of the airplane
and system functions to determine the need for, and scope of, subsequent analysis
should be prepared. This assessment may be conducted using service experience,
engineering and operational judgment, and/or a top-down deductive qualitative
examination of each function. An FHA is a systematic, comprehensive examination of
airplane and system functions to identify potential minor, major, hazardous, and
catastrophic failure conditions that may arise as a result of malfunctions or failure to
function as intended. The assessment should take into consideration normal responses to
unusual and abnormal external factors. The assessment involves the operational
vulnerabilities of systems rather than a detailed analysis of the actual implementation.
6.2.2 Each system function should be examined with respect to the other functions performed
by the system, because the loss or malfunction of multiple functions performed by the
system could result in a more severe failure condition than the failure of a single
function. In addition, each system function should be examined with respect to
functions performed by other airplane systems because the loss or malfunction of
different but related functions, provided by separate systems, may affect the severity of
failure conditions postulated for a particular system.
6.2.3 The FHA should be performed early in the design of the project and updated as
necessary as the design develops. It is used to define the airplane-level or system-level
safety objectives that must be considered in the proposed airplane or system
architectures. It should also be used to determine the development assurance levels for
the systems. An FHA requires experienced engineering judgment to ensure
completeness of failure condition identification, and early coordination between the
applicant and certification authority.
6.2.4 Depending on the relationship between functions and the systems that perform them,
different approaches to an FHA may be taken. Where there is a clear correlation
between functions and systems, and where interactions are relatively simple, it may be
feasible to conduct separate FHAs for each system, provided that any interface aspects
are properly considered and are easily understood. However, where systems and
functional relationships are complex, a top-down approach, from an airplane-level
perspective, should be considered when planning and conducting FHAs.
6.3.1 The requirements of § 25.1309(b) are intended to ensure an orderly and thorough
evaluation of the effects on safety of foreseeable failures or other events, such as errors
or external circumstances, separately or in combination, involving one or more system
6-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
functions. The interactions of these factors within a system and among relevant systems
should be considered. In assessing the effects of a failure condition, factors that might
alleviate or intensify the direct effects of the initial failure condition should be
considered. Some of these factors include consequent or related conditions existing
within the airplane that might affect the flightcrew’s ability to deal with direct effects,
such as the presence of smoke, acceleration effects, interruption of communication,
interference with cabin pressurization, and so forth. When assessing the consequences
of a given failure condition, the applicant should consider the failure information
provided, the complexity of the crew action, and the relevant crew training. The number
of overall failure conditions involving other than instinctive crew actions may influence
the expected flightcrew performance. Training recommendations may need to be
identified in some cases.
6.3.2 The applicant should evaluate the severity of failure conditions according to the
following:
6.3.2.4 Risks to persons other than airplane occupants should be taken into
account when assessing systems failure conditions in compliance with
§ 25.1309. See also the discussion in paragraph 1.2.2.1 of this AC.
6.3.3 The applicant should classify the severity of each effect as no safety effect, minor,
major, hazardous, or catastrophic. These terms are defined in chapter 3 of this AC (and
in § 25.4).
6-3
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
6-4
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7.1 General.
After the applicant has identified the failure conditions and assessed the severity of the
effects of failure conditions, it is the applicant’s responsibility to determine how to
show compliance with § 25.1309(b) and obtain concurrence from the FAA. An
applicant may use appropriate combinations of one or more of the following methods to
show compliance: design and installation reviews, analyses, flight tests, ground tests,
simulator tests, or other approved means.
7.2.1 The probability that a failure condition would occur may be assessed as probable,
remote, extremely remote, or extremely improbable. These terms are defined in
chapter 3 of this AC (and in § 25.4). Each failure condition should have a probability
that is inversely related to the severity of its effects as described in chapter 4 of this AC.
7.2.2 When a system provides protection from events (for example, cargo compartment fire,
gusts), its reliability should be compatible with the safety objectives necessary for the
failure condition and be associated with the failure of the protection system and the
probability of the events. (See additional guidance in paragraph 7.8 and appendix E of
this AC.)
7.2.4 Experienced engineering and operational judgment should be applied when determining
whether a system is complex. Comparison with similar, previously approved systems is
sometimes helpful. All relevant systems attributes should be considered; however, the
complexity of software and hardware do not need to be a dominant factor in
determining complexity at the system level. The design of a system may be very
complex, but predicting its potential malfunctions may be fairly straightforward. For
example, the software and interfaces of a predictive windshear system might be
considered complex, but the potential failures of the system could be summarized as
false alerts, misleading information, and the loss of ability to predict windshears.
7-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7.3.2 While single failures must normally be assumed to occur, there are cases where it is
obvious that, from a realistic and practical viewpoint, any knowledgeable, experienced
person would unequivocally conclude that a failure mode simply would not occur,
unless it is associated with a wholly unrelated failure condition that would itself be
catastrophic. Once identified and accepted, such cases need not be considered failures in
the context of § 25.1309.
7-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7-3
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7.5.3.1 If the system is similar in its relevant attributes to those used in other
airplanes and the effects of failure would be the same, then design and
installation appraisals (as described in appendix B of this AC) and
satisfactory service history of the equipment being analyzed, or of similar
design, is usually acceptable for showing compliance. The applicant
should substantiate similarity claims by identifying the differences
between the system/equipment being certified and other system/equipment
to which similarity is claimed. The applicant should also provide the
rationale for why the service history of the other system/equipment is
applicable.
7.5.3.2 For systems that are not complex, where similarity cannot be used as the
basis for compliance, then compliance may be shown with a qualitative
assessment showing that the system-level major failure conditions of the
system, as installed, are consistent with the FHA and are remote (for
example, redundant systems).
7-4
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7.5.4.2 For very simple and conventional installations—that is, low complexity
and similarity in relevant attributes—it may be possible to assess a
hazardous or catastrophic failure condition as extremely remote or
extremely improbable, respectively, based on experienced engineering
judgment using only qualitative analysis. The basis for the assessment is
the degree of redundancy, the established independence, isolation of the
channels, and the reliability record of the technology involved.
Satisfactory service experience on similar systems commonly used in
many airplanes may be sufficient when a close similarity is established in
respect to both the system design and operating conditions.
7.5.4.3 For complex systems where true similarity in all relevant attributes,
including installation attributes, can be rigorously established, it may also
be possible to assess a hazardous or catastrophic failure condition as
extremely remote or extremely improbable, respectively, based on
experienced engineering judgment using only qualitative analysis. A high
degree of similarity in both design and application is required to be
substantiated. Further, the applicant must be able to demonstrate that the
baseline design complies. This typically requires that the applicant has
access to all the type design data for the baseline against which the
comparison is being made.
7.6.1 The average probability per flight hour is the probability of occurrence, normalized by
the flight time, of a failure condition during a flight representing the average “at risk”
time of the overall possible flights of the airplane fleet to be certified. The calculation of
the average probability per flight hour for a failure condition should consider all of the
following:
7.6.1.1 The average flight duration and average flight profile for the airplane type
to be certified.
7.6.1.2 All combinations of failures and events that contribute to the failure
condition.
7.6.1.4 The relevant “at risk” time if an event is only relevant during certain flight
phases. Evaluate the probability per flight, rather than per flight hour, for
failure conditions that are only relevant during a specific flight phase.
7.6.1.5 The total exposure time if the failure can persist for multiple flights.
7.6.2 The details of how to calculate the average probability per flight hour for a failure
condition are given in appendix F of this AC.
7-5
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7.6.3 If the probability of a subject failure condition occurring during a typical flight of mean
duration for the airplane type divided by the flight’s mean duration in hours is likely to
be significantly different from the predicted average rate of occurrence of that failure
condition during the entire operational life of all airplanes of that type, then a better
model of the flight of average risk must be used. The loss of consumable material (for
example, fluid leakage) may become a critical failure condition for a flight that is longer
than the flight of mean duration.
7.6.4 For various reasons, component failure rate data are not precise enough to enable
accurate estimates of the probabilities of failure conditions. This results in some degree
of uncertainty, as indicated by the wide line in figure 4-1 of this AC, and the expression
“on the order of” in the descriptions of the quantitative probability terms that are
provided above. (See paragraph 3.3 of this AC.) When calculating the estimated
probability of each failure condition, this uncertainty should be accounted for in a way
that does not compromise safety.
7.7.1 Both physical and functional interconnections between systems have been a feature of
airplane design for many years. Section 25.1309(b) accounts for this in requiring
systems to be considered in relation to other systems. Provided the interfaces between
systems are relatively few and simple, and hence readily understandable. Compliance
may often be shown through a series of SSAs. Each SSA deals with a particular failure
condition (or more likely a group of failure conditions) associated with a system and,
where necessary, accounts for failures arising at the interface with other systems.
However, where the systems and their interfaces become more complex and extensive,
the task of showing compliance may become more complex. It is, therefore, essential
that the means of compliance are considered early in the design phase to ensure that the
design can be supported by a viable safety assessment strategy. Aspects of the guidance
material that should be given particular consideration are as follows:
7.7.1.3 The potential for common cause failures and cascading failure effects and
the possible need to assess combinations of multiple lower level failure
conditions. (For example, multiple minor and/or major failure conditions
can lead up to a hazardous or catastrophic failure condition).
7-6
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7.7.1.5 Effect of crew and maintenance procedures in limiting the impact and
propagation of failures. However, the effects of overreliance on flight
crew and maintenance actions are also a part of this consideration.
7.7.2 In addition, rigorous and well-structured design and development procedures play an
essential role in facilitating a methodical safety assessment process and providing
visibility to the means of compliance. SAE ARP 4754A may be helpful in the
certification of highly integrated or complex airplane systems.
7.8.1 A probability of 1 should usually be used for encountering a discrete condition for
which the airplane is designed, such as instrument meteorological conditions or
Category III weather operations, or landing distance required by § 25.125. However,
appendix E of this AC contains allowable probabilities that may be assigned to various
operational and environmental conditions for use in computing the average probability
per flight hour of failure conditions without further justification. The FAA has provided
appendix E for guidance and does not intend it to be exhaustive or prescriptive. At this
time, a number of items do not have accepted standard statistical data from which to
derive a probability figure. However, these items are included either for future
consideration, or as items for which the applicant may propose a probability figure
supported by statistically valid data or supporting service experience. The applicant may
propose additional conditions or different probabilities from those in appendix E
provided they are based on statistically valid data or supporting service experience. The
applicant should provide justification for the data and obtain early agreement from the
certification authority when such conditions will be included in an analysis. When
combining the probability of such a random condition with that of a system failure(s),
care should be taken to ensure that the condition and the system failure(s) are
independent of one another, or that any dependencies are properly accounted for.
7-7
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
7.9.1 Any analysis is only as accurate as the assumptions, data, and analytical techniques it
uses. Therefore, to show compliance with the requirements, the underlying assumptions,
data, and analytic techniques should be identified and justified to assure that the
conclusions of the analysis are valid. Variability may be inherent in elements such as
failure modes, failure effects, failure rates, failure probability distribution functions,
failure exposure times, failure detection methods, fault independence, limitation of
analytical methods, processes, and assumptions. The justification of the assumptions
made with respect to the above items should be an integral part of the analysis and
summarized in the safety analysis. Assumptions can be validated by using experience
with identical or similar systems or components with due allowance made for
differences of design, duty cycle, and environment. Where it is not possible to validate a
safety analysis in which data or assumptions are critical to the acceptability of the
failure condition, extra conservatism should be built into either the analysis or the
design. Alternatively, any uncertainty in the data and assumptions should be evaluated
to the degree necessary to demonstrate that the analysis conclusions are insensitive to
that uncertainty.
7.9.2 Where adequate validation data is not available (for example, new or novel systems)
and extra conservatism is built into the analysis, then the normal post-certification
in-service follow-up may be performed to obtain the data necessary to alleviate any
consequence of the extra conservatism. This data may be used, for example, to extend
system check intervals.
7-8
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
8.1 Overview.
This AC addresses operational and maintenance considerations that are directly related
to compliance with § 25.1309. Flightcrew and maintenance tasks related to compliance
with § 25.1309 should be appropriate and reasonable. However, the FAA does not
consider quantitative assessments of crew errors to be feasible. Reasonable tasks are
those that can be realistically anticipated to be performed correctly when they are
required or scheduled. Therefore, the safety assessment does not need to consider the
hazards associated with omitting or incorrectly performing the reasonable tasks. In
addition, based on experienced engineering and operational judgment, the discovery of
obvious failures during normal operation or maintenance of the airplane may be
assumed, even though identification of such failures is not the primary purpose of the
operational or maintenance actions. During the safety assessment process associated
with § 25.1309 compliance, useful information or instructions associated with the
continued airworthiness of the airplane might be identified. This information should be
made available to those compiling the ICA covered by § 25.1529.
8-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
8-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
The means to ensure continuing compliance with § 25.1309 for modifications to previously
certificated airplanes should be determined on a case-by-case basis and depend on the applicable
airplane certification basis and the extent of the change, in accordance with § 21.101. The change
could be a simple modification affecting only one system or a major redesign of many systems,
possibly incorporating new technologies. For any modification, the minimal effort for showing
compliance with § 25.1309 is an assessment of the impact on the original SSA. The result of this
assessment may range from a simple statement that the existing SSA still applies to the modified
system in accordance with the original means of compliance, to the need for new means of
compliance encompassing the plan referred to in paragraph 5.3.2 of this AC. (If the type
certificate holder is unwilling to release or transfer proprietary data in this regard, then an
supplemental type certificate applicant might need to create the SSA covering the relevant
changed parts, and parts affected by those changes, of the type design. Further guidance may be
found in SAE ARP 4754A.) The FAA recommends that the applicant contact the appropriate
certification office early to obtain agreement on the means of compliance.
9-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix A
A-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix A
functional categories as non-essential, essential, and critical. However, for all practical
purposes, the non-essential category was synonymous with the minor category in the
BCAR; the essential category spanned the BCAR major and hazardous categories; and
critical was the same as catastrophic in the BCAR. The qualitative and quantitative
probabilities that were defined in AC 25.1309-1, and the described application of those
probabilities, were, for the most part, the same as the BCAR.
A-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix B
B-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix B
B-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix C
C.1 Purpose.
In showing compliance with § 25.1309(b), the applicant should address the
considerations covered in this AC in a methodical and systematic manner, which
ensures that the process and its findings are visible and readily assimilated into
compliance-showing documents. The FAA has provided this appendix primarily for
applicants who are unfamiliar with the various methods and procedures typically used
in the industry to conduct safety assessments. This guide and figures C-1 and C-2 are
not certification checklists, and they do not include all the information provided in this
AC. There is no necessity for an applicant to use them or for the FAA to accept them, in
whole or in part, to show compliance with any regulation. The sole purpose of this
guidance is to assist applicants by illustrating a systematic approach to safety
assessments, to enhance understanding and communication by summarizing some of the
information provided in this AC, and to provide some suggestions on documentation.
You can find more detailed guidance in SAE ARP 4761. SAE ARP 4754A includes
additional guidance on how the safety assessment process relates to the system
development process.
C.2.1 Define the system and its interfaces, and identify the functions that the system is to
perform. The safety assessment process may identify additional safety requirements for
the functions during the system development life cycle.
C.2.2 Determine whether the system is complex, similar to systems used on other airplanes, or
conventional. Where multiple systems and functions should be evaluated, consider the
relationships between multiple safety assessments.
C.2.3 Identify and classify failure conditions. All relevant applicant engineering
organizations, such as systems, structures, propulsion, and flight test, should be
involved in this process. This identification and classification may be done by
conducting an FHA, which is usually based on one of the following methods, as
appropriate:
C.2.3.1 If the system is not complex and its relevant attributes are similar to those
of systems used on other airplanes, the identification and classification
may be derived from design and installation appraisals and the service
experience of the comparable, previously approved systems.
C-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix C
C.2.3.3 It may be necessary to aid the analytical process with testing to identify
the failures that could result in intermittent behaviors, erroneous
behaviors, or otherwise unintended behaviors.
C.2.4 Choose the means to be used to determine compliance with § 25.1309. The depth and
scope of the analysis depends on the types of functions performed by the system, the
severity of system failure conditions, and whether the system is simple or conventional
(see figure C-1). For major failure conditions, experienced engineering and operational
judgment, design and installation appraisals, and comparative service experience data
on similar systems may be acceptable, either on their own or in conjunction with
qualitative analyses or selectively used quantitative analyses. For hazardous or
catastrophic failure conditions, the safety assessment should be very thorough. The
applicant should obtain early concurrence from the FAA on the choice of an acceptable
means of compliance.
C-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix C
Conduct Functional
Hazard Assessment.
(See paragraph 6.2 of this AC.) Note: A functional hazard
assessment may be based
on a design and installation
appraisal for these systems.
Is NO
there a safety
affect?
YES
NO
Is the
system & YES Verify Similarity.
installation similar (See paragraphs 7.5.3.1
to a previous and 7.5.4.3 of this AC.)
design?
NO
NO NO
NO
NO
C-3
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix C
C.2.5 Conduct the analysis and produce the data, which have been agreed with by the FAA as
being acceptable to show compliance. Consult SAE ARP 4761 for analysis techniques
such as FHA, PSSA, FMEA, and CCA. A typical analysis should include the following
information to the extent necessary to show compliance:
C.2.5.2 A list of the parts and equipment that compose the system, including their
performance specifications or design standards and development
assurance levels if applicable. This list may reference other documents, for
example, TSOs, manufacturer’s or military specifications, and so forth.
C.2.5.3 The conclusions, including a statement of the failure conditions and their
classifications and probabilities (expressed qualitatively or quantitatively,
as appropriate) that show compliance with the requirements of § 25.1309.
C.2.5.4 A description that establishes correctness and completeness and traces the
work leading to the conclusions. This description should include the basis
for the classification of each failure condition (for example, analysis or
ground, flight, or simulator tests). It should also include a description of
precautions taken against common cause failures, provide any data such as
component failure rates and their sources and applicability, support any
assumptions made, and identify any required flightcrew or ground crew
actions including any CCMRs.
C.2.6 Assess the analyses and conclusions of multiple safety assessments to ensure
compliance with the requirements for all airplane level failure conditions.
C.2.8 Figure C-2 depicts an overview of a typical safety assessment process starting from the
requirements of § 25.1309(b) and (c). For the purpose of this appendix, this figure only
shows the principal activities of a safety assessment process. Applicants may consult
SAE ARP4761 for details of a complete process. Consistent with the system
engineering practice in SAE ARP4754A and ARP4761, the process is presented in a
“V” shape. On the left side of the “V” are the activities to evaluate the preliminary
systems designs. On the right side are the activities to evaluate the final designs.
C-4
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix C
severity. Because there are many systems on an airplane, the figure depicts
multiple system FHAs.
C.2.8.3 Analyses.
Analyses of the preliminary or proposed system designs. These analyses
include the Preliminary System Safety Assessment (PSSA), Mode and
Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Common Mode Analysis (CCA).
C.2.9 The applicant documents the results, together with any maintenance requirements
(e.g. CMRs) and required flight crew procedures (e.g., crew actions in response to flight
deck alerts).
C-5
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix C
Compliance
statements,
Section 25.1309(b)
maintenance
and (c)
requirements, flight
manual requirements
Assessment of
Airplane FHA
Multiple SSAs
Analyses
(FMEA, CCA, PSSA)
C-6
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix D
D.1.1.1 Identify the CSL+1 conditions. The list of CSL+1 conditions based on the
example fault tree is shown in table D-1.
D.1.1.2 The probability of each of the latent failures in the CSL+1 conditions must
not exceed 1 x 10-3. This value is the total probability over the latency
period, and is not a probability per flight hour.
D.1.1.3 Group those CSL+1 conditions that contain the same latent failure. For
each group, assume that latent failure has occurred, and sum the remaining
active failures probabilities. For each group, the sum of the active failures
probabilities should be less than 1 x 10-5 per flight hour.
D.1.3 Results.
The results of the limit latency and residual risk analysis are provided in table D-1.
D-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix D
G006
A001 L003 A005 L005 L003
GATE 6
-5 -6
10 1.000 x 10 1.000 x 10 10 1.000 x 10-5 10 1.000 x 10-5
1.000 x 10-7 9.997 x 10-9
ACT 1 LAT 3 ACT 5 LAT 5 LAT 3
L002 A002
100 4.999 x 10-4 2.000 x 10-5
LAT 2 ACT 2
D-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix D
D-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix E
The probabilities in tables E-1 through E-5 may be used for environmental conditions and
operational factors in quantitative safety analyses. If “No accepted standard data” appears in the
tables below, the applicant must provide a justified value if a probability of less than 1 is used in
the analysis.
Note: The probabilities quoted in this appendix have been found to be appropriate for
use in the context of a quantitative safety analysis performed to demonstrate compliance
with § 25.1309. They may not always be appropriate for use in the context of other
regulations.
E-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix E
E-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix E
E-3
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix F
F.1 Purpose.
This appendix provides applicants with guidance for calculating the average probability
per flight hour for a failure condition, so it can be compared with the quantitative
criteria in this AC. (As discussed in paragraph 7.6.1.4, for failure conditions and
associated classifications that are only relevant during a specific flight phase, evaluate
the probability per flight (paragraph F.5 below), instead of normalizing the probability
on the per flight hour basis.) The process of calculating the “average probability per
flight hour” for a failure condition is described here as a four step process and is based
on the assumption that the life of an airplane is a sequence of average flights:
• Step 1: Determine the average flight.
• Step 2: Calculate the probability of a failure condition for a certain average flight.
• Step 3: Calculate the average probability per flight of a failure condition.
• Step 4: Calculate the average probability per flight hour of a failure condition.
F.3 Calculating the Probability of a Failure Condition for a Certain Average Flight.
The probability of a failure condition occurring on an average flight
Pflight(failure condition) should be determined by structured methods (see SAE
ARP 4761 for example methods) and should consider all significant elements (for
example, combinations of failures and events) that contribute to the failure condition.
The following should be considered:
F-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix F
F.3.1 The component failure rates used to calculate the “average probability per flight hour”
should be estimates of the mature constant failure rates after infant mortality and prior
to wear out. For components whose probability of failure may be associated with
non-constant failure rates within the operational life of the airplane, reliability analysis
may be used to determine component replacement times. In either case, the failure rate
should be based on all causes of failure (operational, environmental, and so forth).
Where available, service history of same or similar components in the same or similar
environment should be used.
F.3.1.1 Aging and wear of similarly constructed and similarly loaded redundant
components that could directly, or when in combination with one other
failure, lead to a catastrophic or hazardous failure condition should be
assessed when determining scheduled maintenance tasks for such
components.
F.3.1.2 Replacement times--necessary to mitigate the risk due to aging and wear
of those components whose failures could directly, or in combination with
one other failure, lead to a catastrophic or hazardous failure condition
within the operational life of the airplane--should be assessed through the
same methodology as other scheduled maintenance tasks required to
satisfy § 25.1309 (for example, AC 25-19A) and documented in the ALS
as appropriate.
F.3.2 If one or more failed elements in the system can persist for multiple flights (latent,
dormant, or hidden failures), the calculation should consider the relevant exposure times
(for example, time intervals between maintenance and operational checks/inspections).
In such cases, the probability of the failure condition increases with the number of
flights during the latency period.
F.3.3 If the failure rate of one element varies during different flight phases, the calculation
should consider the failure rate and related time increments in such a manner as to
establish the probability of the failure condition occurring on an average flight. It is
assumed that the average flight can be divided into n phases (phase 1, ... , phase n). Let
TF be the average flight duration, Tj be the duration of phase j, and tj be the transition
point between Tj and Tj+1, j = 1, ... , n:
𝑛𝑛
Let λj(t) be the failure rate function during phase j, i.e., for t ∈ [tj-1,tj]. λj(t) may be equal
to 0 for all t ∈ [tj-1,tj] for a specific phase j.
Let Pflight(failure) be the probability that the element fails during one certain flight
(including non-flying time).
Let Pphase j(failure) be the probability that the element fails in phase j.
Two cases are possible:
F-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix F
F.3.3.1 The element is checked operative at the beginning of the certain flight,
then:
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖
𝑃𝑃𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓ℎ𝑡𝑡 (𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓) = � 𝑃𝑃𝑝𝑝ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑗𝑗 (𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓) = � 𝑃𝑃 �𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓�𝑡𝑡 ∈ �𝑡𝑡𝑗𝑗−1 , 𝑡𝑡𝑗𝑗 �� = 1 − � 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 �− � 𝜆𝜆𝑖𝑖 (𝑥𝑥)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 �
𝑗𝑗=1 𝑗𝑗=1 𝑖𝑖=1 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖−1
F.3.3.2 The state of the item is unknown at the beginning of the certain flight.
Then:
𝑛𝑛
𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖
𝑃𝑃𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓ℎ𝑡𝑡 (𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓) = 𝑃𝑃𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 (𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓) + �1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 (𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓)� ∗ �1 − � 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 �− � 𝜆𝜆𝑖𝑖 (𝑥𝑥)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 ��
𝑖𝑖=1 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖−1
Where Pprior(failure) is the probability that the failure of the element has occurred prior to the
certain flight.
F.3.4 If there is only an effect when failures occur in a certain order, the calculation should
account for the conditional probability that the failures occur in the sequence necessary
to produce the failure condition.
F.5 Calculation of the Average Probability per Flight Hour of a Failure Condition.
Once the average probability per flight has been calculated, it should be normalized by
dividing it by the average flight duration TF in flight hours to obtain the average
probability per flight hour. This quantitative value should be used in conjunction with
the hazard category/effect established by the FHA to determine if it is compliant for the
failure condition being analyzed.
𝑃𝑃𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓ℎ𝑡𝑡 (𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐)
𝑃𝑃𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓ℎ𝑡𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 (𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐) =
𝑇𝑇𝐹𝐹
F-3
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix G
APPENDIX G. ACRONYMS
Acronym Definition
G-1
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B
Appendix G
Acronym Definition
TC Type Certificate
G-2
MM/DD/YY DRAFT AC 25.1309-1B