RAINFALL VARIABILITY

OVER GUJARAT STATE

2022

1
RAINFALL VARIABILITY OVER GUJARAT STATE 2022
October 2022

ISBN: 978-81-957623-5-4

Authors:
1. Mr. Ankur Srivastava, Research Associate & Program Coordinator, GIDM
2. Ms. Shruti Raypa, M. Tech 2nd Year Student, IIT-Roorkee
3. Dr. Vineet Kumar Singh, Post Doctorate Fellow, TRC-Jeju University

Disclaimer: This report is compendium of the studies conducted over the monsoon variability
over Indian Subcontinent and the Indian State of Gujarat. The authors give due credit and
provided references of original studies and authors and have made every effort to ensure that
the information in this report was correct at documentation time, the authors do not assume
and hereby disclaim any liability to any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by
errors or omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any
other cause.

2
PROLOGUE

Gujarat, a state with a population of 63.91 million, with diverse cultures and
geography, refuses to hold back even after COVID and projects that the GSDP would
bounce to 13%, a state with a bright past and an even brighter future. As we move
forward with this pace, what hinders this trajectory? At this point, our attention shifts
toward the changing weather patterns that are creating erratic conditions in the state.

The recent case of 2022 rains in Gujarat that arrived late, but after stalling for two
weeks, most of the states in Gujarat had normal, excess, or large excess rainfall to
the extent that the state as a whole had a 61% surplus by the end of August. Twenty-
six districts of Gujarat, including Chhota Udaipur, Tapi, Navsari, Udaipur, Narmada,
Panchmahal, Dang, and Valsad, have suffered flood-like situations. What comes along
is damage to life, built infrastructure, and state resources. The damages induced in
the monsoon period of 2022 reflects the vulnerability of the state to such extreme
events, and the matter of concern is that such events are more likely to become more
frequent in future.

This report is a comprehensive study on Gujarat 2022 rains, expressing the trajectory
of rainfall in Gujarat this year and also emphasizing the regular rainfall pattern in
Gujarat along with the district-wise trends in rainfall in the past decades. Probable
factors responsible for this shift and its effects have also been brought to light to get
a complete picture of where we are and what ought to be done?

- Authors

3
4
 INDEX

SN Chapter Page No.

1 Monsoon in India: A Glance 7

2 Monsoon 2022: India & Gujarat 12

3 Rainfall variability over Gujarat 18

4 Consequences & Inferences from Gujarat 21

2022 Rains

5 Scientific Studies to Understand Rainfall 29

Variability

6 Future Trends in Rainfall over Gujarat in 39

Global Warming Scenario

Reference 43

5
6
 1. Monsoon in India: A Glance

‘Monsoon’ is derived from an Arabic word meaning ‘Seasons’ as it traditionally signified

Seasonal reversal of winds along with changes in rainfall. In present times monsoon also
refer to Seasonal variation in atmospheric circulation and rainfall linked to the annual
latitudinal oscillation of ITCZ, the Intertropical convergence zone.

ITCZ is a low-pressure zone that encircles the earth and forms due to the tilt in the earth’s
axis, which causes different parts of the earth to receive direct rays from the sun at
different times of the year. Continental land masses like India and Central Asia heat up
considerably more than the oceans creating a low-pressure zone over the continental
region, thus giving way to the convergence of southeast and northeast trade winds which
flow adjacent to north and south of the equator, respectively, due to earth’s rotation from
west to east. During the Summer monsoon period, the ITCZ shifts northward below the
Indian subcontinent, strengthening the low-pressure zone in this area; because of it, the
southeast trade winds cross the equator, and the Coriolis force makes it deflect towards
the east. They acquire large amounts of moisture from the Arabian Sea. These deflected
winds move towards India as the Southwest monsoon or the Indian summer monsoon.

The Indian summer monsoon period is characterized by heavy rainfall in India during June,
July, August, and September. The Southwest monsoon form two separate branches, the
Bay of Bengal Branch and the Arabian Sea branch, bifurcating when the Southwest
monsoon reach the southern tip of India. The Arabian Sea branch causes rainfall along the
western coast of India, and the Bay of Bengal branch provides rain to the eastern coast of
India and the southern slopes of the Shillong plateau. The Himalayas guide the southwest
monsoon towards Northern India, and the two arms of monsoon converge over Punjab
and Himachal Pradesh by the first week of July. The Indian summer monsoon typically
lasts from June to September, with large areas of western and central India receiving more
than 90% of their total annual rainfall and southern and northwestern India receiving 50%
-75% of their total annual rainfall. [15]

In India, the Southwest monsoon arrive by May when it reaches Andaman and Nicobar
Islands, usually by May 15, and reach the South Andaman Sea; by May 20, it cover the
entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It move towards Sri Lanka, and by May 25, it covers

7
most of Sri Lanka and Myanmar. It is by June 1 that it arrives on the western coast of
India at Kerala [16]. The onset of South west monsoon over India is declared when it
fulfills the criteria marked by the IMD Glossary[17]. According to IMD Glossary the criteria
to declare monsoon are -: 1) The depth of westerly winds should extend up to 4.5 km
above mean Sea level, 2) The strength of the westerly winds should have increased over
the southeast Arabian Sea to be about 25-35 kmph, 3) Cloudiness over the southeast
Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Kerala should have increased ,4)The average outgoing
longwave radiation(OLR) is about 189.7 W/m² and there should have been widespread
rainfall activity over Kerala during past 24 hours, 5) Out of 14 rainfall monitoring stations
declaring the onset of monsoon over Kerala, ten stations have received rainfall of 2.5 mm
or more. When these conditions are fulfilled, further advancement of Southwest Monsoon
takes place. It moves towards parts of the central Arabian Sea, other parts of Kerala, Tamil
Nadu, and more parts of Central and northeast Bay of Bengal. Southwest monsoon cover
the entire India by July 15.

Figure 1.1: Normal progress of Southwest monsoon over India (Source: IMD)

8
Figure 1.1 depicts the normal progress of Southwest monsoon over India where red dotted
lines represent the climatology of arrival date of southwest monsoon winds in different
regions of the country. The normal dates of onset of Southwest monsoon in India is shown
in Table 1.1.

# Region Date

1 South Andaman Sea 20 May

2 Kerala 01 June
3 Mumbai 10 June
4 New Delhi 29 June
5 Entire Country 15 July

Table 1.1: Normal dates of onset of South west monsoon

How Monsoon advance in Gujarat?

Gujarat is located in the extreme western portion of India with Rann of Kutch on the
western part, Arabian Sea in the southwestern part, and a subgroup of Aravalli range in
the northeast portion of the Gujarat region. Gujarat state can be divided into five zones:
Kutch, North Gujarat, East Central, Saurashtra, and South Gujarat. The average rainfall
over these zones in the period (1992-2021) is 456 mm, 720 mm, 806 mm, 717 mm, and
1476 mm, respectively. As per IMD, the maximum number of rainy and heavy rainfall days
during the monsoon period (June to September) is maximum in South Gujarat.

In the usual scenario as per the state average, the maximum number of heavy rainfall
days in Gujarat state is during June, when the Indian monsoon period begins due to the
impact of South west monsoon. The most impacted portions are the South Gujarat region
and the southern part of Saurashtra, and the onset of Southwest monsoon over this region
occurs by mid-June. The factors that play a significant role in altering the normal situations
are the low-pressure zone formations or troughs that bring heavy rainfall to the Gujarat
region, especially southern Gujarat, as it is present in the vicinity of the offshore trough
that extends from Karnataka to Gujarat along the coast attracting rain-bearing clouds
leading to heavy rainfall in the area. Gujarat, in proximity to the Arabian Sea, draws
moisture from the warm ocean during the monsoon Season.

9
To understand further the normal rainfall trend in Gujarat, a study [21] was conducted to
observe the rainfall pattern in the state from 1998 to 2018 and concluded that during the
Indian Summer monsoon period in Gujarat, the average frequency of rainy days1 in
different regions of Gujarat varies both spatially and temporally. Figure 1.2 shows the
average frequency of rainy days in Gujarat during the summer monsoon (June –
September).

Figure 1.2: Average frequency of rainy days in Gujarat during the Summer Monsoon

1
Rainy day is when the rainfall amount realized in a day is 2.5 mm or more (Source: IMD)

10
Figure 1.2 shows the dark blue region representing higher frequency is concentrated more
in the southern Gujarat region, covering districts like Valsad, Navsari, Dang, Surat, and
Tapi, depicting that the frequency of occurrence of rainy days is more in these districts
compared to other districts and the blue region expands to central and eastern Gujarat in
July and August months. The frequency of rainy days decreases as September arrives. So,
the frequency of rainy days gradually increases from June to August and after reaching
maxima in August, it starts decreasing. The frequency of heavy rainfall days2 is higher in
June compared to other months. During June, both southern Gujarat and Saurashtra
region has a maximum frequency. considering the average frequency of heavy rainfall
days over the entire summer monsoon period southern Gujarat has the maximum number.
Figure 1.3 shows the average frequency of rainy days over Gujarat during entire summer
monsoon Season.

Figure 1.3: Average frequency of rainy days over Gujarat during entire summer monsoon

2
Heavy rainfall day is when the rainfall amount realized in a day is between 64.5 to 124.4 mm.

11
 2. Monsoon 2022: India & Gujarat

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), 2022 saw 6% more rainfall than
the long period average (LPA). Under IMD’s classification, this quantum of rainfall is
defined as a normal monsoon. However, skewed distribution in the crucial July-August
period left large rain deficit in the Gangetic plains, leading to about 1% decline in the
overall acreage of crops as compared to last year.

Figure 2.1: Advance of Southwest Monsoon 2022 (Source: IMD)

12
Timeline of Monsoon 2022 in India

During the beginning of the monsoon period in India, by May 30 2022, monsoonal westerly
winds entered the Indian subcontinent from the Arabian Sea over the southern peninsular
forming cyclonic circulations in lower and middle tropospheric levels in the southeast
Arabian Sea off north Kerala and Karnataka coast. A western disturbance in the form of
the trough with its axis at 5.8 km above mean Sea level running roughly along longitude
65°E & to the north of Latitude 32°N was formed to the Southwest Bay of Bengal at lower
tropospheric levels by June 1.

This east-west trough from Haryana to Bangladesh at lower tropospheric levels brought
scattered rainfall over Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand and the strengthening of
the north-south trough directed the strong westerly winds to the northeast India. This
caused heavy to very heavy rainfall in the northeast India by June 10, and extremely
heavy rainfalls were even observed over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, and
Meghalaya by June 15. The south-west monsoon advanced further by June 30, causing
heavy to very heavy rainfall in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, West Uttar
Pradesh, and then by 2nd July south west monsoon covered the entire country, causing
heavy to very heavy rainfall over Gujarat region, Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka and
Odisha. Figure 2.1 provide details about the advance of southwest monsoon in year 2022.

Figure 2.2: Forecasted probability of low pressure observed over Arabian Sea; 15 July - 21 July
2022 (Source: IMD)

13
One of the large-scale condition which affects the monsoon rainfall in India and Gujarat is
Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (MISO). MISO was not favorable for rain in Gujarat in
most parts of June, it starts becoming favorable from June end and this favorable condition
of MISO persisted in July too. Active MISO condition provided favorable conditions for
enhanced convection and heavy rainfall over the central India and Gujarat during the
period 7-13 July and 14-20 July.. In coherence to this, a low-pressure area started to form
over coastal Gujarat and neighborhood by July 14; as we can see from Figure 2.2, the
associated cyclonic circulations created a flood-like situation due to extremely heavy
rainfall in Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Dang, Navsari, and Valsad districts of Gujarat state till
July 16. On 17 July, a depression over the northeast Arabian Sea off the Saurashtra and
Kutch coasts was formed, which caused subsequent rains in the region. The east-west
monsoon trough south of its normal position caused rainfall in Kutch, Sabarkantha,
Aravalli, Mehsana, and Dwarka districts from 22 to 25 July. However, after 25 July, the
monsoon trough began shifting northward as was observed with heavy rainfall over
Rajasthan on 26 July, then extending over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sub Himalayan
west Bengal and Sikkim.

Drought situation in Six states hit crop acreage

Despite the monsoon Season ending with an overall rain surplus of 6%, there was a fall in
the acreage of the summer crop, mainly due to drought conditions in six states, including
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Although the overall acreage of kharif crops was
dragged down largely due to a fall of nearly 5% in sown area of paddy, the country even
reported a decline in sowing of pulses and oilseeds. Overall, however, this was the fourth
consecutive year of “normal” or “above normal” monsoon in the country since 2019.

Timeline of Monsoon in Gujarat in 2022

The rainfall activity over Gujarat saw diversions from the actual yearly rainfall during the
summer monsoon period of 2022, creating flood-like situations over various regions in
Gujarat, as it was recorded 400 to 550 mm of rain in 24 hours. Ministry of Home Affairs
reported flooding across Chhota Udaipur, Tapi, Navsari, Narmada, Ahmedabad,
Panchmahal, and Valsad districts affecting 1,194,069 people. The extremities touched this
year were associated with various synoptic systems formed over land and Sea this year.

14
Gujarat comprises five zones; by July 28, 2022, all zones except north Gujarat had
received more than 60% of their average rainfall, with Kutch receiving rainfall excess of
117.32% (535.5 mm) and South Gujarat received 1213.74 mm, which is 82.24% of the
average rainfall over this zone. Gujarat state overall received 69.75% of rainfall. Figure
2.3 shows rainfall distribution in Gujarat Monsoon (1 June – 1 August 2022).

Rainfall distribution in Gujarat Monsoon (1 June – 1 August 2022)

Actual (mm) Normal (mm) Percentage (%)

Ahmedabad 343.1 345.0 -1%
Anand 548.2 414.4 +32%
Aravalli 475.2 420.3 +13%
Banaskantha 412.7 311.6 +32%
Bharuch 594.0 401.4 +48%
Chota Udepur 816.1 483.0 +69%
Dahod 242.2 368.3 -34%
Dangs 1743.8 1201.1 +45%
Gandhinagar 331.5 397.9 -17%
Khera 513.5 407.7 +26%
Mahesana 357.8 357.6 0%
Mahisagar 440.3 387.3 +14%
Narmada 1122.3 526.6 +113%
Navsari 1520.0 1066.9 +42%
Only Dahod district got deficient rain
Panchmahal 604.9 444.5 +36%
Patan 368.0 277.3 +33% 9
Actual (mm) Normal (mm) Departure (%) Source: IMD
Sabar Kantha 503.1 425.7 +18%
Surat 1002.9 745.5 +35%
Tapi 940.0 773.7 +21%
Vadodara 603.6 458.3 +32%
Amreli 367.1 336.2 +9%
Bhavnagar 273.5 318.0 -14%
Botad 265.8 294.5 -10%
Devbhoomi Dwarka 610.1 319.5 +91%
Diu 718.8 494.6 +45%
Gir Somnath 790.4 554.2 +43%
Jamnagar 414.1 351.5 +18%
Junagarh 698.5 540.7 +29%
Morbi 326.8 299.5 +9%
Porbandar 653.8 411.6 +59%
Rajkot 416.3 360.3 +16%
Surendranagar 253.0 274.7 -8%
10
Kachchh 479.4 205.5 +133% Source: IMD

Figure 2.3: Rainfall distribution in Gujarat Monsoon (1 June – 1 August 2022)

15
The Summer monsoon Season in Gujarat saw delayed rainfall compared to normal
conditions. Heavy to very heavy rainfall was observed in the Gujarat region on July 2 at
isolated places by the presence of Southwest monsoon winds over Gujarat. It suffered a
rainfall deficit of 47 percent at the beginning of July, resembling drought-like conditions,
with only three districts (Navsari, Valsad, and Narmada) receiving normal monsoon rains
and no district with excess or large excess rainfall. The majority of districts had deficient
(20 to 59% less rainfall than normal) or large deficient rainfall (<60% less rainfall than
normal). The situation in Gujarat took an abrupt turn in the first ten days of July. State’s
deficit came down to 22 percent from 47 percent by July 5, and by July 7, the state’s
deficit was further reduced to 10 percent, and the number of districts that has received
normal rainfall increased to 15 and the number of districts which received excess or large
excess rains increased to 12. The significant variation occurred when the MISO activity
became intense over Gujarat during 7-13 July, and the monsoon trough also became
extremely active and was reported by IMD to be south of its normal position. The presence
of another offshore trough extending from the Gujarat coast to Karnataka was responsible
for rains along the western coast. The state’s deficit was reversed to an excess of 29
percent till July 10; by July 11 state’s excess reached 44 percent. This complete reversal
occurred within the span of just ten days.

Figure 2.4: Daily rainfall during 7 July - 13 July 2022 and 7 days average for the period 7-13
July 2022 (Source: IMD)

16
SEOC Gujarat reported heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls over the
Gujarat region, Saurashtra and Kutch. The continuous rainfall over the state resulted in
floods like scenario in Chhota Udaipur, Tapi, Navsari, Narmada, Panchmahal, and Valsad
districts on 10 July; this worsened in the districts of south Gujarat (Navsari, Valsad) and
districts of Saurashtra and Kutch as well including Jamnagar, Junagadh, Devbhoomi
Dwarka and in Kutch district. Heavy to very heavy rains were seen in Ahmedabad,
Vadodara, Chhota Udaipur, Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Tapi, and Dang and also in the
districts of Saurashtra namely Rajkot, Porbandar, and Gir Somnath. Heavy rains very likely
at isolated places in the districts of the Gujarat region, namely Patan, Mehsana,
Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar, Aravalli, Anand, Panchmahal, and Mahisagar; in the districts
of Saurashtra-Kutch, namely Surendranagar, Amreli, Botad and in Diu. Light
Thunderstorm with lightning and surface wind 30-40 kmph (in gust) accompanied with
light rain very likely at isolated places in all the districts of North Gujarat region and
Saurashtra-Kutch. Due to these conditions, the districts which suffered through a flood-
like situation the most were Chhota Udaipur, Tapi, Navsari, Narmada, Ahmedabad,
Panchmahal, and Valsad.

From 14 to 20 July, the MISO activity over Gujarat region again became active, and IMD
also reported forming of a low-pressure area over coastal Gujarat. The combined impact
of both resulted in extremely heavy rainfall and flood in villages of Gandevi, Chikli Taluka,
and Navsari City near River Ambika, District Navsari Gujarat leaving 668 people stranded
as per SEOC. By 16 July, 52 villages of 5 districts, including Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Dang,
Navsari & Valsad, were affected by rainfall-induced floods. 22 to 25 July, Kutch, Jamnagar,
Sabarkantha, Aravalli, Mehsana, and Dwarka have heavy rains due to a monsoon trough
south of its normal position. This monsoon trough them moved northward towards its
normal position reducing the rainfall activities over Gujarat and the west coast of India.

17
 3. Rainfall variability over Gujarat

The long-term trends over Gujarat according to Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes
Over Gujarat State published by IMD in January 2020 [21] suggest crucial factors about
the temporal and spatial variability pattern of rainfall over Gujarat over 30 years (1989-
2018). The methodology adopted for the study was to get monthly rainfall series for each
station within the state and then evaluate the monthly district rainfall series by considering
the arithmetic average of the values. Spatial patterns of mean rainfall over different
districts in Gujarat and district-wise annual and Southwest monsoon Season rainfall trends
were obtained and used to decipher various answers by identifying intensities and
frequencies in rainfall events.

It was observed that the rainfall over Gujarat is turning erratic with time. Heavy rainfall
days are increasing and creating flood-like situations over the state. However, at the same
time, it can be seen that this triggers an increase in dry days at an annual level, as seen
in Valsad, Amreli, Surat, and Jamnagar districts, because the amount of rain that falls in
the region would come in a fewer number of days thus increasing heavy to very heavy
rainfall days and also increasing the number of dry days at the same time.

Over the years, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of rainy days in
Kutch, Devbhoomi, Dwarka, Porbandar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Amreli, Patan,
Valsad, Surat, and Sabarkantha districts. In contrast, there is a significant decrease in the
number of rainy days in Dang, Chhota Udaipur, Kheda, Anand, Surendranagar, and Navsari
districts. Devbhoomi Dwarka and Gir Somnath show a significant increasing trend in annual
rainfall in Gujarat. From June to September, there is a significant increase in the heavy
rainfall days in Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Morbi, Rajkot, Junagadh,
Amreli, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Aravalli, Valsad, and Chhota Udaipur districts. In
contrast, there is a significant decrease in the heavy rainfall days in Sabarkantha, Dahod,
Panchmahal, Kheda, Anand, Bharuch, Vadodara, Navsari, and Dang districts. While
remaining districts did not show any significant change. During the entire year, there is a
significant increase in dry days in Patan, Mehsana, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Surat, Valsad,
Amreli, Jamnagar, and districts. From June to September, there is a significant increase in
dry days in Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar, Anand, Kheda, Panchmahal,

18
Vadodara, Valsad, Navsari, and districts. The variation over the decades is one of the
consequences of Climate change as, according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
change (IPCC), in its AR6 Working Group 1 report released in August 2021, suggested that
changes to monsoon rainfall are expected to happen due to climate change.

Figure 3.1: Trends in frequency of Heavy rainfall days and Rainy days in Gujarat during summer
monsoon period (June to September) from 1989 to 2018 (Source: IMD)

Figure 3.1 shows a significant decreasing pattern3 in the frequency of heavy rainfall days
during the summer monsoon period (June to September), marked with blue downward
pointing arrows mainly in the Eastern Gujarat region and South Gujarat, whereas an
increasing pattern is observed in the Saurashtra and Kutch region marked with red upward
pointing arrows. Similar is a trend of the frequency of rainy days but the regions where
the frequency of rainy days is decreasing are less as compared to the regions where the
frequency of heavy rainfall days is decreasing.

According to IMD, 19 districts have shown an increasing trend in overall rainfall, as seen
in Figure 3.2 and out of which two districts, Devbhoomi Dwarka and Gir Somnath, have
shown a significantly increasing trend. In contrast, the remaining districts have shown a

3
Pattern observed by IMD over the period of 1989-2018 in the report titled Observed Rainfall
Variability and Changes Over Gujarat State published by IMD in January 2020 [21]

19
significant decreasing trend, but no district has shown a significant decrease in average
rainfall over the entire summer monsoon period. Mahisagar district has shown a significant
decrease in rainfall over June in the observed period (1989-2018).

Figure 3.2: District wise rainfall trends in Gujarat during entire summer monsoon period from
1989 to 2018 (Source: IMD)

20
4. Consequences & Inferences from Gujarat 2022 Rains

The trend analyzed by IMD discussed in the previous chapter is also justified by the erratic
SW monsoon rains of the year 2022 wherein 69.86% of the average rainfall in Gujarat has
occurred till July 29, 2022 depicting the extreme conditions. Kutch region where there has
been significant increase in heavy rainfall days as per the trends has received 117.38% of
the average (1992-2021) rainfall of the region. 21 out of 33 districts had received more
than 60 % of their annual average rainfall by the end of July, 2022 as by Gujarat State
Emergency Operation Centre (SEOC) reports. [19]

The summer monsoon in Gujarat in 2022 were extreme in the amounts it poured in the
state but also the arrival of monsoon that were extremely delayed and initially portrayed
drought like conditions in June which got reversed in the beginning of July, it was also
seen in studies that the districts in Gujarat showed correlations in their rainfall patterns
causing extremely heavy rainfall in a particular region and low rainfall in another region
and this situation happening in the range of the same cloud system suggesting the
presence of local imbalance in the shedding of moisture from the cloud systems formed.
This non uniform pattern of rainfall in Gujarat has also caused disruptions in agriculture
as the monsoon Season is the sowing Season for Kharif crops in Gujarat and as per data
by CEIC ,Bank of Baroda till 12 of August ,2022 the sown area of pulses compared to last
year during same Season had declined by 4% and within pulses Arhar declined by 11.7%
and Urad declined by 4.6%.The sown area also reduced for Jute and Mesta by 1 % in this
monsoon period. [20]

The erratic behavior of Gujarat rains in 2022 engendered grave damage as in the first 2
months (June and July) the number of human fatalities in the state reached 119 in which
the major causes of deaths reported to SEOC were lightning ,drowning, tree and building
collapse due to the extreme rainfall, more than half the deaths were due to drowning itself
[19]. Apart from human lives lost 1086 animals also perished in these situations during
this period. Material damage also weakens the economic health of the state and it was
seen that 356 houses were fully damaged and 3846 houses were partially damaged.

Daily rainfall data from 1 June 2022 to 28 July 2022 was obtained from Gujarat State
Disaster Management Authority website (http://www.gsdma.org/) and the daily human

21
death, animal death, partially damaged houses and fully damaged houses data was
obtained from SEOC data available in Disaster Management Division of Ministry of Home
Affairs (https://ndmindia.mha.gov.in/) as daily reports.

Deaths in Gujarat during monsoon Season

(1 June to 28 July,2022)
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Figure 4.1: Cumulative human deaths in Gujarat due to consequences of heavy rainfall during
Summer Monsoon period of 2022 (1 June to 28 July,2022). Data Source: SEOC

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Figure 4.2: Cumulative graph showing increasing damages due to rainfall in Gujarat during
Summer Monsoon period of 2022 (1 June to 28 July,2022). Y- axis is the number off entities
and X axis depicts the dates from 1 June to 27 July,2022. Blue line denotes partially damaged
houses in Gujarat, grey line denotes the animal deaths in Gujarat and orange line denotes the
number of fully damaged houses in Gujarat. Data Source: SEOC

22
Correlation analysis between cumulative rainfall, human deaths, partially damaged
houses, fully damaged houses and animal deaths in Gujarat derived from the data above
showed high positive correlation as could be seen from Table 4.2. The correlation between
partially damaged houses and cumulative rainfall was 0.98 which showed that as the
rainfall increased in the state the spike in the number of partially damaged houses could
be seen. This inferential analysis also depicts that there is scope of strengthening of built
environment and creating resilience within the state to such extreme scenarios as the
erratic nature may increase in future as per future predictions discussed further.

DATES Human Partially Fully Animal Cumulative

Deaths damaged damaged Death Rainfall(mm)
houses houses
1.06.22 0 0 0 0 0
2.06.22 0 0 0 0 0
3.06.22 0 0 0 0 0
4.06.22 0 0 0 0 0
5.06.22 0 0 0 0 0
6.06.22 0 0 0 0 0
7.06.22 0 0 0 0 0
8.06.22 0 0 0 0 0.69
9.06.22 0 0 0 0 0.95
10.06.22 0 0 0 0 0.96
11.06.22 0 0 0 0 1.16
12.06.22 0 0 0 0 4.05
13.06.22 0 0 0 0 7.79
14.06.22 0 0 0 0 14.45
15.06.22 0 0 0 0 15.67
16.06.22 0 0 0 0 19.41
17.06.22 1 0 0 0 21.42
18.06.22 1 0 0 0 21.92
19.06.22 2 1 0 0 23.35
20.06.22 26 229 1 49 27.89

23
21.06.22 26 245 1 54 34.11
22.06.22 26 245 1 54 34.87
23.06.22 26 246 1 60 42.33
24.06.22 26 246 1 60 46.65
25.06.22 27 400 3 72 46.75
26.06.22 27 400 3 72 52.9
27.06.22 33 801 5 101 55
28.06.22 36 945 5 106 60.71
29.06.22 36 945 5 106 61.39
30.06.22 36 954 7 118 64.22
1.07.22 38 958 9 209 80.03
2.07.22 41 963 9 232 102.29
3.07.22 41 963 9 232 117.82
4.07.22 41 963 9 232 125.14
5.07.22 44 1101 12 233 139.73
6.07.22 44 1101 12 243 158.59
7.07.22 45 1277 12 245 171.35
8.07.22 49 1314 14 254 199.67
9.07.22 54 1476 18 264 235.44
10.07.22 54 1476 18 264 259.04
11.07.22 61 1509 25 272 306.63
12.07.22 69 1709 67 302 363.22
13.07.22 76 1930 101 481 397.02
14.07.22 76 1930 101 481 433.35
15.07.22 99 2356 140 515 460.62
16.07.22 101 2496 157 748 477.21
17.07.22 111 2766 227 929 482.98
18.07.22 111 2766 227 929 486.64
19.07.22 114 3067 279 965 495.79
20.07.22 115 3067 279 965 508.88
21.07.22 115 3290 319 1026 511.94

24
 22.07.22 116 3471 319 1032 514.49
23.07.22 116 3495 321 1032 518.65
24.07.22 116 3495 321 1032 542.22
25.07.22 117 3591 332 1043 561.58
26.07.22 117 3688 339 1083 576.76
27.07.22 118 3688 339 1083 588.5
28.07.22 119 3846 356 1083 592.98

Table 4.1: Cumulative rainfall, human deaths, partially damaged houses, fully damaged houses
and animal death data from Gujarat derived from SEOC monsoon daily state updates from 1 June,
2022 to 28 July, 2022. (Authors own representation)

Deaths Partially Fully Animal Cumulative

damaged damaged Death Rainfall(mm)
houses houses
Deaths 1
Partially damaged 0.985829 1
houses
Fully damaged houses 0.906571 0.941873 1
Animal Death 0.966469 0.982506 0.976475 1
Cumulative Rainfall 0.976999 0.980233 0.924974 0.967624 1
(mm)

Table 4.2: Correlation analysis data between cumulative rainfall, human deaths, partially damaged
houses, fully damaged houses and animal death data from Gujarat derived from SEOC monsoon
daily state updates from 1 June, 2022 to 28 July, 2022. (Authors own representation).

On performing regression analysis between cumulative rainfall data and human death data
the low p value indicates that the statistical result is significant. The multiple R is
the absolute value of the correlation coefficient of the two variables (cumulative rainfall
and human deaths) being evaluated. The correlation coefficient indicates how closely two
variables move in tandem with each other. It assumes that the relationship is linear and
so measures the linear relationship between the two variables. The goodness of fit
measure like R squared were used to assess the scatter of data points around the fitted
value, the R squared of our model was 95.42% which is good and determines the

25
predictions to be precise. The low value of significance f in ANOVA affirms the model is
significant and the probability of the model being wrong is low. Scatter plot of cumulative
rainfall and human deaths where orange represents predicted values and blue represents
the observed values (Figure 4.4) and this showed that the observed values did not deviate
much from the predicted values and thus we conclude that the human lives were
vulnerable and suffered during heavy rainfall causing deaths and without proper
preparedness mechanism even in future more deaths would happen with increase in
rainfall in the region as per the linear relationship.

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2466561 2466561 1145.207 1.66E-38
Residual 55 118459.6 2153.812
Total 56 2585021

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.976819
R Square 0.954175
Adjusted R Square 0.953341
Standard Error 46.40918
Observations 57

Standard Lower Upper Lower Upper

Coefficients Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept -28.3137 9.000308 -3.14586 0.002672 -46.3507 -10.2766 -46.3507 -10.2766
0 4.790736 0.141566 33.84091 1.66E-38 4.507031 5.074442 4.507031 5.074442

Figure 4.3: Regression analysis of cumulative rainfall and human deaths within Gujarat

26
 700

600
Line Fit Plot
500

400

300

0
200

100

0
0 50 100 150
-100
0
Series1 Predicted 0

Figure 4.4: Scatter plot of rainfall and human deaths where orange represents predicted values
and blue represents the observed values. (Authors own representation)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.97995
R Square 0.960302
Adjusted R Square 0.95958
Standard Error 43.19529
Observations 57

Standard Lower Upper Lower Upper

Coefficients Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
-3.71829 7.884466 -0.4716 0.63908 -19.5191 12.08254 -19.5191 12.08254
0.162503 0.004455 36.47535 3.2E-40 0.153574 0.171431 0.153574 0.171431

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2482400 2482400 1330.451 3.2E-40
Residual 55 102620.8 1865.833
Total 56 2585021

Figures 4.5: Regression analysis of cumulative rainfall and partially damaged houses.

27
 Line Fit Plot
700
600
500
400
300
0 200
100
0
-100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
0

Series1 Predicted 0

Figure 4.6: Scatter plot of rainfall and partially damaged houses where orange represents
predicted values and blue represents the observed values. (Authors own representation).

28
 5. Scientific Studies to Understand Rainfall Variability

Gujarat inherently has a tropical dry climate due to the geographical conditions of Gujarat
as it lies within 20°15'N and 24°30'N and the tropic of cancer passes through the state.
The major portion of rainfall received by the state is from June to September (Summer
Monsoon period). During this Season it receives rainfall from the Arabian Sea branch of
Southwest monsoon winds which blow over the warm Indian Ocean and gather moisture
as they flow towards the Indian subcontinent.

Large Scale Factors

Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (MISO)

According to a paper by T. Yasunari 1979 [1] Asian summer monsoon were observed to
be affected by large scale fluctuations called Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillations which
have a northward movement especially from equatorial Indian Ocean region to Indian
mainland causing spells of heavy rainfall during the summer monsoon Season. MISO occur
as alternating periods of heavy and low rainfall and last approximately for a month and its
occurrence is not a function of the tropical atmosphere of the region where it occur but
rather the ocean-atmosphere interaction is the major factor affecting its occurrence and
northward propagation [2]. Experiments with satellite driven global datasets have shown
that the increasing Sea Surface Temperature over the Indian Ocean is playing a pivotal
role in modulating the impact of MISO over Indian subcontinent as it causes changes in
the air-Sea interaction leading to increased moisture convergence. Over Gujarat the
effects could be seen as studies show that MISO variance increased during Indian summer
monsoon Season and the Northern Arabian Sea was one of the regions where the
variations were significant [2]. MISO has also strengthened in the recent decades as
confirmed by long term MISO variance. The finite domain space-time spectrum of the
rainfall and 850 hPa zonal wind anomalies showed an increase in the amplitude of the
northward propagating mode in the recent decade compared to the former decade. The
regressed anomalies of filtered rainfall showed a significant difference in the propagation
characteristics of the MISO in the recent decade. The variations in the propagation pattern
of MISO in the recent years is a significant factor in the rainfall variability experienced by
Gujarat over the years creating erratic rainfall in several regions of Gujarat. Even this year

29
the effect of MISO was experienced by Gujarat, the excessive rain in July compared to
June was due to the late arrival of active phase of MISO which provided favorable
conditions for enhanced convection over the region. Propagation pattern of MISO provided
by IMD suggested that these largescale conditions were not favorable for rain in Gujarat
in June and became active in June end generating enhanced convection and cloud
formation process. During 7-13 July and 14-20 July the MISO activity became intense over
Gujarat state becoming extremely favorable for heavy rainfall all over Gujarat and Central
India.

Figures 5.1: Propagation of MISO in 2022 in sequence during summer monsoon period

30
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Madden Julian Oscillation is also a wave similar to Monsoon Intra Seasonal Oscillations
(MISO) that determines the increment and decrement in rainfall as the presence of MJO
over the north Indian Ocean induces more rainfall over Indian subcontinent. A contrasting
difference between MISO and MJO is the direction of propagation of these waves. MISO
propagates in south to north direction whereas MJO propagates in west to east direction.
The region where MJO is in active phase, gets more rainfall as compared to regions where
MJO is in subdued phase. MJO is considered as one of the dominant intra-Seasonal
variability in tropical regions [3] and it plays a crucial role in the onset of monsoon and in
the rainfall variation during monsoon Season over India. Strong relationship between
monsoon activity and MJO variations have been seen through composite analysis of data
sets over past years [4]. The study of MJO activities is facilitated by RMM index of Wheeler
and Hendon (2004) which identifies the phase of MJO during a particular duration. The
RMM index is derived from the principal component analysis of the cloud amount and
upper-atmospheric winds that provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO
activity.

Figure 5.2: The MJO and Indian monsoon onset phase space diagram for 2022. When the line is
inside (outside) the black circle it denotes weak (strong) MJO activity. Different color lines denote
propagation of MJO in different months of the monsoon Season.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia 2022

31
This RMM index generates a combined index using RMM 1 and RMM 2 value, this combined
index is plotted and when the index is inside the black circle then it is considered weak
MJO activity and when the index is outside the black circle then it is a strong MJO activity.
The wet phases of MJO strongly favor the Indian monsoon activity in the western Indian
Ocean region. IMD reports show that during June the MJO was active in the western pacific
region and therefore the rainfall was not favorable in Indian Ocean region and over Indian
mainland. In July MJO propagated in phase 3 and phase 4 (east Indian Ocean). During
monsoon Season, when active phase of MJO is in the eastf Indian Ocean then there is
an increase in the rainfall activity over Indian mainland.. MJO was active in east Indian
Ocean in July 2022 as seen from the MJO phase diagram (Figure 5.2).. This active
propagation of MJO provided favorable atmospheric conditions for intense convection and
enhanced rainfall over Gujarat. IMD reports also suggested that the MJO phase supported
enhancement of convective activity over the Arabian Sea in July, 2022 [5].

Influence of ENSO conditions on monsoon rainfall

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is an irregular inter annual oscillator that
swings between warm and cold Sea surface temperature and low pressure over central
and eastern tropical pacific. It plays a major role in modulating the rainfall over Indian
mainland during the summer monsoon Season (June to September). As per the
climatology, west Pacific Ocean is warmer than the east Pacific Ocean. The ocean surface
pressure is lower in the west Pacific compared to the central and east Pacific due to the
upwelling of cold water in the east Pacific and this enhances the movement of trade winds
westward. So, in the west Pacific it causes more evaporation, clouding and rain whereas
in the east pacific dry conditions persist. During the prevalence of La Niña this overall
condition strengthens causing the thermocline to tilt further causing warm water to pool
around Australia leading in above average rainfall in the western region. According to the
IMD forecasts the prevailing atmospheric conditions in 2022 shows characteristics of La
Niña with a positive Southern Oscillation Index in July over equatorial Pacific Ocean causing
above average rains in parts of India.

32
 Figure 5.3: A purely objective ENSO probability forecast, based on regression, used as
input. It is updated on the third Thursday of every month.
Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monsoon rainfall

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon that closely
resembles ENSO in terms of mechanism. However, it occurs in the Equatorial Indian
Ocean, unlike ENSO, which occurs in the Pacific Ocean. IOD consists of two poles: The
Arabian Sea as the Western Pole and the Eastern Indian Ocean of Indonesia as the Eastern
pole. The Sea surface temperature difference between the western and eastern poles of
IOD is responsible for the formation of IOD. The IOD affects the climate of regions around
the Indian Ocean and accounts for rainfall variability over the Indian mainland. The impact
of IOD is like ENSO as the change in temperature gradients across the Indian Ocean results
in changes in the preferred regions of rising and descending moisture and air. There are 3
phases of IOD: neutral, positive, and negative phase.

33
In the neutral phase, water from the Pacific flows between the islands of Indonesia,
keeping Seas northwest of Australia warm. Air rises above this area and sinks over the
western Indian Ocean basin, in the lower levels westerly winds flow along the equator and
the Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Indian Ocean is close to average.. Hence,
the neutral IOD has no significant impact on the rainfall variability over Indian mainland
during the monsoon Season. In the positive IOD phase, westerly winds weaken along the
equator allowing warm water to shift towards Africa. Changes in the winds also allow
upwelling of cool subsurface water to the surface in the eastern Indian Ocean leading to
decline in Sea surface temperature in the region. This scenario sets up a Sea surface
temperature gradient across the tropical Indian Ocean, with cooler than normal water in
the east and warmer than normal water in the west. Also, due to cooler than normal Sea
surface temperature in east Indian Ocean leads in the anomalous lower moisture in the
region. Whereas, warmer than normal Sea surface temperature in the west lead to
anomalous higher moisture in this region. Generally, this means there is less moisture
than usual in the atmosphere to the northwest of Australia.

Figure 5.4: The Bureau of Meteorology’s Seasonal outlook suggests warmer ocean
conditions around northern Australia. Bureau of Meteorology.
Source: www.bom.gov.au/climate

34
This changes the path of weather systems coming from Australia's west, often resulting in
less rainfall and higher than normal temperatures over areas under its influence in the
Western portion of the Indian Ocean. In the negative IOD phase, westerly winds intensify
along the equator, allowing warmer waters to accumulate near Australia. This sets up a
temperature difference across the tropical Indian Ocean, with warmer than normal water
in the east and cooler than normal water in the west Indian Ocean.

A negative IOD typically results in above-average rainfall as warmer waters off northwest
Australia provide more moisture to weather systems in the region North-west of Australia
[7]. This also leads to above-average rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. In 2022, the
eastern Indian Ocean was warmer than the western Indian Ocean. Therefore, negative
IOD is developed, which favors rainfall and is a favorable condition for rains in India. Thus,
the heavy rain during the Indian monsoon period in the Indian subcontinent is a
countereffect of the negative IOD conditions that have developed over the Indian
subcontinent in the July -September period, and so this, along with other factors
supporting it.[6][8].

Figure 5.5: Observed and forecasted dipole mode index representing the phase of IOD. Values
below -0.4 represent negative IOD condition and values above +0.4 represent positive IOD
condition. Source: www.bom.gov.au/climate

35
Regional Factors

Rise in surface pressure over Tibetan plateau

According to a study by Singh et al. (2022) [10] increasing trends of rainfall over
Northwest India is closely related to the rise in surface pressure over the Tibetan plateau.
Rise in the surface temperature of the Tibetan plateau causes this increase in surface
pressure over Tibetan plateau as we can see from the Figure 5.6 b) which represents trend
in surface pressure for the period 1979-2020. The easterlies flowing across the north west
India show a rise of -0.26 ms-1decade-1 which is in line with the Tibetan surface pressure
trends. These changes in circulation have led to increase in water vapor transfer over
North west India as these lower level easterlies which have increased carry more water
vapor from Bay of Bengal over North west India. This overall process reinforces the rainfall-
generating mechanism. We can observe from Figure 5.6 a) that shows conclusions from
long term ISMR trends that there is significant decrease in ISMR over Indo-Gangetic plains
and North East India along with increase in rainfall over Western India and North-western
India.

Figure 5.6: a) linear trends of rainfall (mm/decade) b) Linear trends of surface pressure
(hPa/decade) (Source: Singh et al. 2022)

36
Increasing aerosol content in the atmosphere

Aerosol content in the atmosphere is responsible for cloud formation as they become site
of nuclei formation around which the water vapor condenses to form droplets. So, in areas
of high pollution there is high aerosol content and this leads to catastrophic downpours
specially with convective cloud system. According to a scientific paper by University of
Texas in June 2016 [11][12] it was found that high levels of aerosols could lead to
delayed rainfall and in this process larger clouds are formed and eventually when they
shed their water they cause violent storms.

Monsoon Troughs

Monsoon trough is a kind of ITCZ (Inter tropical Convergence Zone), elongated low
pressure zones producing synoptic scale disturbances .There are two types of monsoon
troughs formed in India ,one extends from east to west and another trough is the off
shore trough which originates from the southern part of Gujarat to Southern Kerala. IMD
bulletin of 8 July 2022 reported east-west monsoon trough to be active south of its normal
position (means it was passing over central India, Gujarat, MP, Bay of Bengal) and the off
shore trough was present from South Gujarat to Karnataka and they provided a
convergence zone over Gujarat causing heavy rainfall over Gujarat region.

Figure 5.7: Track of depression during 16-17 July, 2022 (Source: IMD)

37
 Increase in temperature of Arabian Sea

The increase in temperature of Arabian Sea as per the study of Roxy et.al. (2017) [9] is
another cause of increase in rainfall over Gujarat as anomalous moisture gets transported
to Gujarat strengthening the westerlies. SST of Arabian Sea is increasing due to the
increase in the ocean heat content. The Indian Ocean receives ocean heat from Indonesian
Throughflow (ITF) that transports a lot of warm water from the Western Pacific to the
Indian Ocean. If there is a change in heat received by Indian Ocean then simultaneously
it also increases the Sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea also.

Figure 5.8 a) SST trend (deg C/decade) from an observed Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface
Temperature, version 4 (ERSST v4) during 1951–2015, b) CMIP5 historical simulations for 1976–
2005 c) Time series of SST anomalies (solid lines) and their linear trends (°C/decade; dotted line)
over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO, blue), central equatorial Indian Ocean (CEIO, 60 °E:90 °E;
10 °S:10 °N, green) and global tropics (GT, 0°:360°; 30 °S:30 °N, red)

38
 6. Future Trends in Rainfall over Gujarat in Global
Warming Scenario

As the effects of climate change become more significant with time, several studies have
been done to understand the impacts of climate change on factors such as rainfall. The
increasing global warming has created an imbalance in the rainfall changes across the
world, as suggested by the regional rainfall variation pattern, and these changes are
predicted to amplify with a further increase in global warming. These are the
recommendations from Chapter 4 of the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC: WGI - Future
Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information [18]. The
projections were based on Shared Socio-economic Pathways in various scenarios (SSP1-
1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) used in CMIP 6.

The future projections suggest that the greenhouse gas-induced warming will increase
global monsoon rainfall; according to the long-term trend (2081-2100), the effect on
monsoon rainfall change will show asymmetry, inducing a more significant increase in
monsoonal rainfall in the northern hemisphere compared to rains in the southern
hemisphere. The east-west asymmetry projected an increase in rainfall from the Asian-
African monsoon with medium confidence.

Estimates for annual mean rainfall changes in 2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014 for the
scenario with SSP 5 and approximate global effective radiative forcing of 8.5 represent
high changes due to global warming in the long term. It indicates high positive variation
in the western portion of India. These are high indicators of the increasingly erratic nature
of rainfall over India in the long-term trend.

The conditions that Gujarat is facing are indicators of the extreme situation that will occur
in the future, and there is a need for preparedness to create resilience in the region. The
extreme rainfall in a lesser number of days created flood-like situations within the state
and hindered mobility, and action needs to be taken to accomplish SDG 11 [22], which is
to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.

39
Figure 6.1: Changes in annual mean rainfall for SSP5-8.5 (2081–2100) (Source: IPCC)

40
Figure 6.2: Rainfall is projected to increase by 25-30% in SSP2-4.5 scenario by the period 2081-
2100 in Gujarat state. The non-hatched area denotes where the confidence in the projected rainfall
change is high.

Figure 6.3: Rainfall is projected to increase by 50-55% in SSP5-8.5 scenario by the period
2081-2100 in Gujarat state. The non-hatched area denotes where the confidence in the
projected total rainfall change is high.

41
Figure 6.4: 1 day maximum Rainfall is projected to increase by 40-45% in SSP5-8.5 scenario
by the period 2081-2100 in Gujarat state. The non-hatched area denotes where the confidence
in the projected rainfall is high.

Figure 6.5: Projected change in wind speed during monsoon period 2081-2100 for SSP 5 -8.5
scenario. The non-hatched area denotes where the confidence in the projected surface
wind is high.

42
 References

1. Cloudiness Fluctuations Associated with the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon

by Tetsuzo Yasunari 1979. http://mausam.hyarc.nagoya-
u.ac.jp/~yasunari/list/pdf/yasunari.JMSJ.1979.pdf
2. Sabeerali, C. T., S. A. Rao, G. George, D. N. Rao, S. Mahapatra, A. Kulkarni, and R.
Murtugudde (2014), Modulation of monsoon intraSeasonal oscillations in the recent
warming period, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 5185–5203, doi:10.1002/
2013JD021261.
3. Madden, R. A., & Julian, P. R. (1971). Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal
wind in the tropical Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric
Sciences, 28(5), 702– 708. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-
0469(1971)028<0702:DOADOI>2.0.CO;2
4. Wheeler, M. C., & Hendon, H. H. (2004). An all-Season real-time multivariate MJO
index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Monthly Weather
Review, 132(8), 1917– 1932. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-
0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2
5. https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/uploads/archive/24/24_f24882_Extended%20Range
%20Outlook_14072022.pdf
6. https://imdpune.gov.in/ENSO_IOD_Update_Bulletin_7_22.pdf
7. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/
8. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/west-coast-parts-of-central-north-india-
get-heavy-rain-as-monsoon-entered-vigorous-phase-101657017180911.html
9. Roxy, M.K., Ghosh, S., Pathak, A. et al. A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain
events over central India. Nat Commun 8, 708 (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9
10.Singh, R., Jaiswal, N. & Kishtawal, C.M. Rising surface pressure over Tibetan Plateau
strengthens indian summer monsoon rainfall over northwestern India. Sci Rep 12,
8621 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12523-8
11.Chakraborty, S., Fu, R., Wright, J. S., & Massie, S. T. (2015). Relationships between
convective structure and transport of aerosols to the upper troposphere deduced from

43
 satellite observations. Journal of Geophysical ReSearch:
Atmospheres, 120, 6515– 6536. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023528
12.https://news.utexas.edu/2016/06/13/aerosols-strengthen-storm-clouds-according-to-
new-study/
13.Roxy, M.K.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, A.; Chowdary, J.S.; Singh, S.; Modi, A.;
Kakatkar, R.; Mohapatra, S.; Dhara, C.; Shenoi, S.C.;et al. Indian Ocean Warming. In
Assessment of Climate Change Over the Indian Region; Springer: Singapore, 2020;
pp. 191–206. ISBN 9789811543272
14.https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_10
15.https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2022-06-22-deciphering-the-
Seasonal-and-geographic-variability-of-indian-monsoon
16.https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/countdown-to-monsoon-arrival-starts-49649
17.IMD Glossary ( https://www.imdpune.gov.in/Weather/Reports/glossary.pdf)
18.Chapter 4 of Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC: WGI - Future Global Climate:
Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information
19.SEOC Reports, National Disaster Management Division ,Ministry of Home Affairs
(https://ndmindia.mha.gov.in/)
20.Monsoon and Sowing update ,Bank of Baroda (as on 6th August ,2022) by Economics
ReSearch Department Bank of Baroda (https://www.bankofbaroda.in/-
/media/project/bob/countrywebsites/india/economic-scenario/data-releases/monsoon-
and-crop-sowing-5th-aug-2022-06-04.pdf)
21. Report ‘Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Gujarat State’ published by
IMD in January 2020.
22.Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

***

44