Runoff and rainfall correlations

The first raindrops fall to the ground and are caught by the greenery there. The term for this is
interception storage. Rainwater that has reached the ground surface ceases penetrating into
the soil when rainfall intensity exceeds the soil's capacity for infiltration. After surface
puddles, ditches, and other depressions are filled (depression storage), runoff is then
produced. Consequently, runoff is the term for precipitation that runs over a terrestrial
surface.

The dynamic interaction of surface storage, soil infiltration, and rain intensity affects the
connection between rainfall and runoff in any thunderstorm. Runoff happens when the
amount of rain falls exceeds the soil's capacity for infiltration when there are no physical
obstacles blocking surface flow.

The runoff from a particular downpour relies on:

 Rainfall volume

The intensity of rainfall is the total amount of rain that falls over time. A measure of the
intensity of rain is the height of the water layer that gradually covers the ground.

 Infiltration rate of the soil

The soil infiltration rate (IR), which can happen in a variety of situations, is the volume flux
of water going into the profile per unit of soil surface area. When water is added to the soil, a
thin layer (less than 2 mm thick), called as the seal, is typically created, which frequently
causes the IR to decrease from its initial high rate.

 Storage capacity of the soil's surface

Therefore, Runoff = IR – SIR - SSC
Where,
IR – Rainfall intensity
SIR - Rate of soil infiltration
SSC - Soil surface storage capacity

A catchment's contributing factors can be broadly categorized into the following categories:

climatic variables
  Precipitation type:

Precipitation comes in many different forms, such as snow, hail, and rain. However, after
melting, the snow penetrates into the ground. Snowfall runoff is delayed because it takes
snow a while to melt before turning into water and permeating the earth.

 Storm Intensity:

Intensity of rainfall and runoff are negatively connected. The discharge increases as rainfall
intensity increases.

 Continuity of Rainfall:

Rainfall amount and intensity have a linear relationship. Rainfall volume causes an increase
in runoff. Consequently, if it rains for a long time, there will be a lot of runoff.

 Distribution of rainfall across the catchment:

Large runoff is produced as a result of the catchment's extensive rainfall. In the lowest
reaches of the watershed, runoff increases swiftly after heavy rains. On the other hand, the
upper areas of the watershed experience a slight increase in runoff following significant
rainfall.

 Storm movement direction:

The amount of runoff is higher when a storm crosses a stream in the downstream direction as
opposed to the upstream direction.

Geographic variables

 Soil Permeability: Surface runoff and soil permeability have the opposite
relationships. Runoff decreases as permeability increases.
 Plants: In order to survive and take up water from the soil, plants need water.
Consequently, there is less surface runoff in vegetated regions.
 Type of soil: Loose, coarse-grained soils have a higher capacity for infiltration and
produce less runoff than fine-grained and compacted soils.
 Catchment slope: A steeper slope enhances runoff, whereas a flat surface or no slope
will provide water time to absorb.
 Land use: The amount of runoff varies depending on how the land is used; for
instance, an area with a lot of vegetation will have less runoff than one with little or
no vegetation.
 Catchment shape: How the flow from various sites synchronizes with the outlet
depends on the shape of the watershed. Catchments with a circular or fan shape create
runoff at higher rates than those with an elongated shape because runoff from
numerous sites will almost likely arrive at the outlet at the same time.
streamflow modeling
Streamflow is the volumetric discharge expressed as a function of time. The gathering
and analysis of streamflow data is one of the key hydrological responsibilities.
Analysis of streamflow aids in;
 An explanation of the flow regime
 To assess the potential of different rivers
 To forecast potential river flows in the future.
 Curves of flow duration
The cumulative frequency curve known as the flow-duration curve (fig. 3) shows the
percentage of time that a specific discharge was met or exceeded over a specified
period of time. For instance, during the years 1939 to 1948, Bowie Creek's daily mean
flow (Fig. 3) was at least 144 cubic feet per second 90% of the time. The fact that the
flow-duration curve combines the stream's overall discharge with its flow
characteristics ranges in one curve may be a simpler way to understand how it
represents streamflow data. The flow-duration curve offers a practical way to examine
stream flow parameters and contrast one or more basins with another.
 Figure 1 Duration curve of daily, Bowie Creek near Hattlesburg. 1939-48

The daily, weekly, or monthly flows within a particular period are sorted according to
magnitude, and the percentage of time the flow equaled or surpassed the stated values is
computed in order to create a flow-duration curve. The curve shows the average for the
period under consideration rather than the flow distribution over a single year and was
produced by averaging the plotted points for the specified discharges against the percentage
of time that they were met or exceeded.

PREPARATION OF DATA

There are two basic methods for producing flow-duration curves:

1. Using the calendar year

2. The total-period technique

The calendar-year method ranks the discharges for a certain year according to their size.
Orders 1, 2, 3, _, and _ are listed. This process is repeated for each year's records. Each order
number's discharges are averaged. A block diagram is plotted using an ordinate in discharge
units and an abscissa in time units. The calendar-year method provides higher figures for low
discharges and lower values for large discharges when compared to the more precise total-
period method.
All discharges are classified into classes in the total-period method based on their
magnitude.
Starting with the highest class, the totals are added up, and for each class, the
percentage of the total time is computed. The discharge is then used as the x-axis for
the data, and the time in percent of the overall period is used as the y-axis.
Analysis of frequency
Flood frequency analysis is a method that hydrologists use to forecast flow levels
along a river that correspond to specific return periods or probabilities. Using annual
peak flow data that is available for a number of years, flood frequency analysis is used
to generate frequency distribution graphs by determining statistical data such as mean,
standard deviation, and skewness. Flood frequency plays a crucial role in determining
the frequency of floods when planning dams, bridges, culverts, levees, highways,
sewage treatment facilities, water treatment facilities, industrial structures, etc.
The techniques for frequency analysis are as follows;
1. Counting how many events occur at specific intervals (interval method)
2. The ranking system
3.Application of theoretical frequency distributions
Analyzing frequency using the ranking algorithm. Research, 2023; method described
to R.J. Oosterbaan
Ranking data for frequency analysis can be done in both ascending and descending
order. The steps for the ranking approach are as follows.
Sort the entire amount of data (n) in decreasing order by value (x), with the highest
value coming in front and the lowest value coming last.
Each value x should be given a serial number (r), with x1 being the highest value and
xn being the lowest (xr r = 1, 2, 3,..., n).
By dividing the rank (r) by the total number of observations plus one, you may
determine the frequency of exceedance.

r
F(x > xr) =
n+1
Calculate the frequency of non-exceedance.
r
F(x ≤ xr) = 1 - F(x > xr) = 1 -
n+1
 Issues with frequency analysis
 The streamflow records from which the estimation method is formed must be
accurate. Frequency analysis isn't particularly useful when the records are
brief or of questionable quality.
 Each storm or low flow occurrence used in the data set is assumed to be
independent of one another. In annual maximum (or minimum) series, this is
very simple to avoid; in peak threshold series, it is more challenging.
 The hydrological regime has been assumed to have stayed constant during the
whole time of record. This might not hold true in areas of the watershed where
land use or climate change have taken place.

Hydrograph
An ongoing record of a stream or river discharge is called a hydrograph. A particular
catchment's response to a variety of special circumstances, including the catchment's
underlying geology, the amount of pre-existing moisture, and the length of a storm,
determines the shape of the hydrograph.

Hydrograph components
The various components of a natural hydrograph are shown in figure below.
 Base flow, or the ground water intake to the stream, is all that is present at first and it
exponentially decreases over time. After the storm begins, the first losses due to interception
and infiltration are encountered, and then the surface flow begins. The hydrograph rises
gradually and reaches its peak value after a time tp, which is calculated from the center of the
net rain hydrograph and is also known as the basin lag or lag time. Rainwater has been
flowing into the catchment storage up until this point and is now progressively draining from
it because it drops off and then changes slope at the inflection point. By this time, infiltrating
and percolating water have raised the ground water table, which now contributes more to
stream flow than it did at the beginning of the storm. The ground water depletion curve, also
known as the recession curve, is an exponential curve that shows how the hydrograph and
ground water table change after this point.

Unit hydrograph
An isolated rainfall of a certain unit length that falls uniformly across the whole catchment
area creates a unit volume of runoff (1 cm3) is referred to as a unit hydrograph.

Derivation of the unit hydrographs

To create a unit hydrograph from an observed flood hydrograph, the following procedures are
used:
  Isolated (single-peaked), powerful storms that occurred uniformly across the
watershed created flood hydrographs with a substantial amount of runoff.
 Select a hydrograph of a flood that occurred as a result of the unit storm you chose in
item above.
 Distinguish between the base flow and the entire runoff.
 To obtain the ordinates of direct runoff, subtract the relevant ordinates of base flow
from the ordinates of the total runoff hydrograph (at regular time intervals).
 To determine the depth of net precipitation across the drainage basin, divide the area
of the drainage basin by the volume of direct runoff.
 Divide each ordinate of direct runoff by the depth of net precipitation to obtain the
ordinates of the unit hydrograph.
 Trace the ordinates of the unit hydrograph against the duration of direct runoff. This
will provide the basin's unit hydrograph.

Elements of a unit hydrograph

 Base width (T): That is the time duration of direct surface runoff.

 Unit storm: The storm of unit duration

 Unit period: This is the period of the unit storm.

 Lag time (tp): This is the time from the center of unit storm to the peak discharge of
the corresponding unit hydrograph.

 Recession time (Tr): The duration of the direct surface runoff after the end of the
excess rainfall.

Application of unit hydrograph

A unit hydrograph has two uses:

i. First, it can be used to build a unit hydrograph of desired duration from one of known
duration using the S-curve approach or the superposition concept.
ii. From the unit hydrograph thus produced, to determine the flood hydrograph
corresponding to a single storm or a string of storms. For design purposes, a design
storm is assumed, and a design flood hydrograph is created using a unit hydrograph.
Instantaneous unit hydrograph
An instantaneous unit hydrograph is one produced by an effective rainfall of 1 mm and has an
infinitesimal reference duration, or a duration that approaches towards zero. The
instantaneous unit hydrograph, in accordance with the systematic notion, represents the
catchment's response to an immediate impulse. Because we must divide the rainfall into
numerous short durations and then determine its response, the instantaneous unit hydrograph
is mostly employed when rainfall duration and intensity are variable. S-curves can also be
used to obtain the instantaneous unit hydrograph; however, this is only a rough method
known as Clark's method.

S-hydrograph
A S hydrograph is a hydrograph that is created by steady effective rainfall that lasts for an
endless amount of time. Because of how the hydrograph's shape resembles the letter "S," it is
known as a "S" hydrograph.

According to the understanding of the rainfall-runoff process, a point will ultimately be

reached where the direct runoff rate will be equal to the effective rainfall rate as the rainfall is
occurring at a constant rate eternally. The term "point of equilibrium" refers to this location.
When equilibrium is reached, the hydrograph's ordinate matches the rate of effective
precipitation, and its curve moves in a straight line parallel to that axis, becoming a S
hydrograph.