Sun Belt

Maëlys, Hélèna
→ How can we explain the electoral trends in the sun belt ?
→ Texas, Georgie, Florida : electoral trends in the sun belt
introduction :
In January 2021, misleading videos circulated on the social networks in Georgia,

accusing the Democratic Party of conspiracies just before the senatorial elections. We might
consider this a political strategy in order to discredit the opponent. The close results between
Democrats and Republicans demonstrate the rivalry we will be discussing.
And The 2020 presidential elections will once again pit the Democratic and
Republican rivals, and the next presidential elections will be held on November 5, 2024, as
we all know.
The South States, which are famous for their previous segregationist policies, with
their elected Southern Democrats, who are distinct from the Democratic Party, portray
themselves as populists and former supporters of slavery. Therefore, they ensured a
domination over the democrats in the old conferred states of america.
The 50s and 60s saw a change in Southern politics, with the announcement
that racial segregation was unconstitutional and the declaration of civil rights.
Although conservative supporters remain on the political scene, it is now
crucial to promote racial integration since electors are now more diverse, including black
individuals.
Nixon's southern strategy in the 1970s involved recovering votes in the south
by recovering moderates and evangelists who were not going to vote. This led to the states
of the south voting for the Republicans, and they becoming increasingly influential leaders in
the south.
The “sun belt” effect, designate the south states that majority vote for Republicans,
the conservator party. It starts from California to Virginia, so in total there are 18 states.
In the beginning of the 50s, the region saw an increase in population as citizens were
attracted to new economic opportunities tied to military bases and industrial, agricultural, and
commercial development all over the region.
New technologies, such as air conditioning, made the warmer climate more bearable,
and the passage of federal Civil Rights and Voting Rights legislation made the social and
political climate more welcoming as well.
Although the pace of growth has slowed in recent years, the Sunbelt remains the
fastest growing region of the United States today.
In fact, sun belt states are the wealthiest states, for example Los Angeles or San
Francisco, or even Miami.
During the pandemic many persons moved from big cities like Chicago that lose
more than 45000 people or New York that lose more than 30500 people, to the south of the
USA in the sun belt, mostly in Florida, Texas and Arizona
Elsewhere, Sun belt states are close to the Mexican border, so immigration is very
massive and creates a real gap with the richest cities.
Our topic will be limited to the study of elemental trends in Texas, Georgia and
Florida, so we will come to wonder : What are the expected trends for the upcoming
presidential election ?
We will then first see The states with republican tendencies (I), then The states
with democratic tendencies (II).
I - States that have republican tendencies
Our initial focus will be on the electoral trends of Florida (A), followed by Texas (B).
A ) Florida turns right according to its population
In Florida, the landslide victory of the Republican RonDe Santis in 2022 can be
explained by his positioning as for the confinement and the measures that the party judged
as «repressive», this positioning then made him rise in the polls, its popularity was then
flexible, with a lower death toll than New York for example.
To explain this shift to the right, it is also explained by its population: Latinos are very
present but they have been often taken for granted and misunderstood by the Democratic
Party.
In Florida, almost half of Latino voters are for Trump.
Cuban American have historically been Republican-leaning voters. Meanwhile,
Puerto Ricans are assumed to be Democrats.
During the 2020 election, polls showed that Biden was underperforming among
Florida’s latino voters.
The Republican vote tendencies of Latinos can be explained by the fact that
Republicans prioritize protection of gun rights. Also, Latinos are more likely to say abortion
should be illegal. They grant importance to political subjects like education and economy.
B ) Latinos absenteeism in the Texan polls
In the sun belt the Latino community plays a significant role especially in Texas
where the political landscape leans Republican. However, recent events have raised
concerns about their representation and participation in political processes.
It has been confirmed that latinos now outnumber non-hispanic whites in Texas.
They represent 40,2% of the state’s population, whereas the non-hispanic whites represent
39,8% of the state’s population.
Tier population has been increasing over the past decades, they have been esteemed to 12
million latinos living in Texas. Texas had a white majority from 1885 until 2004.
Census data from 2020 revealed results for three key Sun Belt states which are
Texas, Florida and Arizona. Initially projected to gain up to six additional House seats
combined, these states ultimately received only three new seats.
But still in Texas, there are approximately 6.5 million Latino eligible voters, it holds immense
potential for shaping electoral outcomes.
II - States that have democratic tendencies
Now we are going to focus on the democratic states tendencies starting with the
democrat senate victory in Georgia (A). Then we will see the Swing states (B).
A ) Democrat Senate Victory in Georgia
During the election of the Senate for the second two years of Joe Biden’s term, also
called “midterms”, the candidate Pastor Raphael Warnock from the democrat party won the
Georgia runoff election against Herschel Walker from the republican party.
Barack Obama, a great figure and admired member of the Democratic Party who
campaigned on behalf of the party, played a crucial role in winning the vote.
In the 2020 elections, Georgia had already expressed its basic preferences by
selecting Joe Biden over Donald Trump.
The media has been shocked by this victory since it was posted before 2020, in a
conservative state.
Warnock’s victory underscores the importance of active participation in the
democratic process.
As the political landscape evolves, the role of swing states like Georgia remains crucial in
shaping the nation’s future.
B ) The "Swing states"
The “swing states” are states that can swing either Democratic or Republican
candidates depending on the election.
Because of their potential to be won by either candidate, political parties often spend a
disproportionate amount of time and campaign resources on winning these states.
Meanwhile the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as “safe states” or
specified as “blue states” or “red states” depending on the party leaning.
They are characterized by having small vote margins and that different political parties
win over time.
The current swing states that voted for the president Joe Biden in 2020 and for
Donald Trump in 2016 are highlighted as swing states. These states include Arizona,
Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The 1992 election had the highest number of states that switched political parties,
with 22 states that changed from the previous election.
The swing states have a strong power in elections because they can switch from
one party to another

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Maëlys, Hélèna

→ How can we explain the electoral trends in the sun belt ?

→ Texas, Georgie, Florida : electoral trends in the sun belt

In January 2021, misleading videos circulated on the social networks in Georgia,

I - States that have republican tendencies

A ) Florida turns right according to its population

B ) Latinos absenteeism in the Texan polls

II - States that have democratic tendencies

A ) Democrat Senate Victory in Georgia

B ) The "Swing states"

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