KPIT Technologies Anand
KPIT Technologies Anand
KPIT Technologies Anand
4 August 2020
KPIT revenues came at $65m, down 15.2%q/q (14% in CC), 10%y/y. Key data KPITTECH IN / KPIE.BO
The decline was mainly in AD-ADAS (down 27.7% q/q) and 52-week high / low `113 / 34
Diagnostics/Auto SAR (down 22% q/q). The EBIT margin was 6.7%, Sensex / Nifty 37662 / 11086
3-m average volume $0.5m
down 178bps q/q. Despite Q1FY21 capex being higher, at `332m (new
Market cap `19bn / $247.3m
facility and software), net cash was a high `3,938m, 21% of MCap.
Shares outstanding 274m
Capex for the rest of the year would come down sharply. With its in-line
Q1 performance and growth expected to be back in H2 as large deals
Shareholding pattern (%) Jun'20 Mar'20 Dec'19
ramp up and offshoring increases, margins may see a tailwind. We Promoters 41.8 41.7 41.6
raise our FY22e profit 5.2%, leading to a higher target of `90 (earlier - of which, Pledged 17.0 17.1 18.7
`85) at 13x FY22e EPS. Free float 58.2 58.4 58.4
- Foreign institutions 23.1 23.3 23.3
Revenue to stabilise in Q2. KPIT’s Q1 FY21 performance was better than
- Domestic institutions 12.5 12.6 11.8
LTTS’ (down 12.5%q/q, 12%y/y) and Tata Elxsi’s (down 11%q/q, up
- Public 22.6 22.4 23.3
2%y/y). Besides, it secured another large deal of over $60m through Tier-1
(Europe) after a $50m deal signed in Q4. Realisations dropped 10% q/q
largely on account of higher offshoring. Europe (39% of revenue, down Estimates revision (%) FY21e FY22e
19.3% q/q) was weak but expected to grow as the large deals ramp up from Sales($) (3.6) (2.6)
Q3. Two large deals in the last two quarters establish its competitiveness. EBITDA 8.7 6.0
PAT (1.0) 5.2
Offshoring, lower D&A to act as margin tailwinds. The EBITDA margin
was 13.4%, down 37bps q/q, 116bps y/y. LTTS (16%, down 309bps q/q) and
TataElxsi (23%, down 160bps q/q) also faced margin headwinds in Q1 FY21. Relative price performance
110
D&A was higher at `330m (up 12% q/q) on account of a new facility in
Germany but is expected to come down from Q3 as two facilities consolidate. 90
Sensex
Net profit was `240m, lower partly due to forex losses and partly to EBIT.
`
DSO was 72 (up six days q/q) as trade discounts were given to a few clients. 70
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10.2x FY22e EPS and 11% FCF yield, attractive given the anticipated H2
FY21 recovery and better margin delivery. Risk: Dependence on one vertical. Source: Bloomberg
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.
80 14% 13.8%
13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
60 13.0% 13.1%
13%
40
12%
20
0 11%
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
Jul-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
Apr-19
Apr-20
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
May-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Note - Q1, Q2, Q3FY19 figures are KPIT Engineering financials(before the split); Q4FY19’s are KPIT Tech’s financials after the hiving off from Birlasoft IT
Result Highlights
Q1FY21 Results at a Glance
Gross utilisation (IT services) 72.9% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 70.0% -300 bps -294 bps
CoR (excl. D&A) (3,805) (4,140) (4,180) (4,228) (3,726) -11.9% -2.1%
As % of revenues -75% -76% -76% -76% -76% 38 bps -39 bps
SG&A (514) (574) (584) (566) (539) -4.9% 4.8%
As % of revenues -10% -11% -11% -10% -11% -75 bps -77 bps
EBITDA 739 727 737 768 662 -13.8% -10.3%
EBITDA margins % 14.6% 13.4% 13.4% 13.8% 13.4% -37 bps -116 bps
EBIT 500 462 454 474 332 -29.9% -33.6%
EBIT margins % 9.9% 8.5% 8.2% 8.5% 6.7% -178 bps -315 bps
Other income (57) 51 76 60 10 -83.5% -117.5%
Forex gain / loss (69) 29 58 2 (15) -961.6% -78.0%
Interest expense (46) (59) (48) (45) (49) 9.7% 7.6%
PBT 398 454 482 489 293 -40.1% -26.4%
PBT margins % 7.9% 8.3% 8.8% 8.8% 5.9% -32.4% -24.4%
Taxes (88) (86) (72) (92) (51) -44.6% -42.4%
ETR % -22% -19% -15% -19% -17% 140 bps 481 bps
Net income 376 330 429 388 240 -38.1% -36.1%
NP margins % 7.4% 6.1% 7.8% 7.0% 4.9% -211 bps -256 bps
Note: CoR includes G&A employee costs as well
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Conference-call takeaways
The demand environment has turned better in Q1 FY21 than in Q4
FY20 as there is more certainty now.
Clients have cut their spending with KPIT the least of its peers; thus
KPIT has gained market share.
Apart from the large deal announced in Q1, KPIT won three deals
with OEMs and a few more with tier-1 companies.There are few other
large deals in the pipeline. KPIT is winning from vendor consolidation
based on its capability.
KPIT has won three deals in China in the past one month.
Depreciation in Q1 includes `125m on account of a lease. In Q2,
depreciation would increase and start reducing from Q3.
Increase in DSO days was on account of extended payment terms to
two clients which will normalise in Q4.
There are 700 employees in Germany,after consolidation of all
facilities. Many deals will be executed from the German centre.
E-power train, ADAS and connected, will be growth drivers ahead.
Payment of `170m was made during Q1 for earn-out payment for
MicroFuzzy (now KPIT owns 95% in it). For acquisition of the rest
5% in Microfuzzy, another ~`265m to be paid.
1,200 people work outside India.
Attrition for the quarter was 11%
Outlook
Q2 revenue to be flat sequentially, with flat margins.
In Q3, higher utilisation and offshoring will help margins, offset by
restoration in salaries. Q3 will see revenue growth and margin
expansion.In Q4, lower D&A, higher offshoring and operating
efficiency will shore up revenues and margins; EBITDA and PAT will
be higher.
Capex to be `480m for FY21.
ETR to be 18% for FY21.
Payout to remain close to 25%.
some clients.
Consequent on volumes declining, Q1revenue will decline10-15% q/q,
but H2 will be better than H1.
Notes from the Q3 FY20 concall
The demand environment is positive, with opportunities across
regions and verticals.
The company added four strategic customers in the target T-25
customer base.
It has large deals (five-year, of double-digit million dollars) in the
pipeline, giving it confidence of growth ahead, driven by passenger
cars.
The margins were lower on account of higher increments given this
year to retain talent.
Germany has 800 people, of which 25% are based at the client site.
The tax rate was lower because of the cumulative impact of
consolidation of income of the Germany entities. The tax rate will
continue to be low (below 20%).
The company maintains its FY20 revenue growth guidance of 16-18%
and expects margins to trend up by another 200-300bps in coming
years based on levers such as offshoring and utilisation.
Notes from the Q2 FY20 concall
Promoter pledges are at peak levels and expected to come down gradually
to zero in the next two years. The proceeds of the pledges have been used
entirely to increase the promoters’ stake in the company.
Due to OEMs’ focus on electric vehicles, traditional power-train is
also growing as OEMs offload past works to vendors. On connected
vehicles, one large programme was completed last year; hence, figures
appear negative.
Due to the high wage hikes, attrition has come down by ~10
percentage points, y/y.
Management expects utilisation to pick up gradually. At present, net
hiring is on the fresher side as KPIT attempts to reduce its
dependence on lateral hires. This trend may continue for two quarters;
the results will then show up in margins.
Capex to hold at 2% of revenues.
The company maintains its FY20 revenue growth guidance of 16-18%
and EBITDA margin guidance and demand for its servicesat 14-15%.
Notes from the Q1 FY20 concall
KPIT had the highest deal wins in the quarter as demand for its
services is strong.
Attrition was higher in the past, at 18%, but is now shrinking every
quarter. This is also on account of the sharper focus and growth.
Dividend payout will increase gradually but not in a huge way as the
company needs cash and has retained earnings to support growth.
Management talked of 16-18% CC revenue growth for FY20.
The EBITDA margin would be 14-15%, according to the old
accounting, and 15-16% per reported figures.
Factsheet
Fig 9 – Revenue-split, by industry
(%) Q1 FY20 Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20 Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21
Passenger cars 73 76 76 76 78
Commercial vehicles 24 22 23 22 21
New mobility 1 1 1 1 1
Others 2 1 1 1 1
Source: Company
Valuations
The stock quotes at 10.2x FY22e EPS of `6.6, which we find attractive
given that the company is likely to grow faster than the industry in the
medium term (14.3%overall revenue growth in FY20) and decline less than
peers in FY21. It is also expected to clock 11.2% growth in FY22 once the
auto industry recovers.
Its focus on its top-25 strategic clients (of its 55 active ones) and the
expansion of its business to newer new-gen companies and regions such as
China make us optimistic about its performance as China (the largest auto
market in the world and an important one for European auto) is resuming
economic activity Also, the company is confident of enjoying greater
profitability (15%) in the next few years by higher offshoring although this
target was delayed by a year due to FY21 being damaged by Covid-19. On
the higher utilisation (target 75%), we expect the margin to recover to
14.6% by FY22 after flat performance in FY21 despite weak sales.
The net cash balance was `3,938m, a significant stepping up from the
~`1,810m it reported a year earlier. Higher cash generation should take the
total to ~`5.5bn by end-FY21. The FCF yield is now 11.4%.
Considering these positives, we have assigned a target multiple of
13xFY22e EPS, with a target price of `90. We recommend a Buy.
Fig 17 – PE band
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KPIT
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Risk
Dependence on one vertical.
75
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