2024

Global
Ecommerce
Report
The Changing World of Payments

2024 Global Ecommerce Report – Boku & Juniper Research - 1

2024
Global Ecommerce Report
The Changing World of Payments

Contents

Global....................................12 Ghana .................................... 189

Iraq ......................................... 194
Asia Pacific ...........................23 Kenya ..................................... 199
Australia ................................... 31 Nigeria.................................... 204
China........................................ 36 Saudi Arabia ........................... 213
Indonesia ................................. 45 South Africa ........................... 222
Japan ....................................... 54 United Arab Emirates.............. 227
Malaysia ................................... 63
Philippines ................................ 72 Indian Subcontinent .........232
Singapore................................. 81 India ....................................... 239
South Korea ............................. 86 Pakistan ..................................247
Taiwan ...................................... 95
Europe ................................252
Thailand ................................. 105
Denmark ................................ 259
Vietnam ...................................114
Germany ................................ 264
U.S. & Canada ..................... 124 Italy ........................................ 269
United States ..........................131 Netherlands .............................274
Canada ................................. 136 Norway................................... 279
Poland .................................... 284
Latin America .................... 141 Spain ...................................... 290
Argentina ............................... 148 Sweden .................................. 295
Brazil ..................................... 153 Switzerland ............................ 300
Colombia ............................... 163 United Kingdom ..................... 305
Mexico ....................................172
Appendix: Ecommerce
Africa & Middle East.......... 177 and GDP forecast ................. 310
Egypt...................................... 184

2024 Global Ecommerce Report – Boku & Juniper Research - 3

Introduction Merchants need to embrace the growing dominance of these local payment
methods, by making intelligent payment acceptance choices, giving their
Many global businesses find themselves reacting to the rapidly evolving pay-
customers the freedom to pay the way they want to pay. By recognizing and re-
ments landscape instead of proactively planning their payments acceptance
specting regional payment preferences, merchants not only ensure transaction
strategy – this leaves them at risk of competitive disadvantage. The 2024 Global
growth, but also forge lasting relationships with their consumer base – a win-win
Ecommerce Report, produced in collaboration with Juniper Research, analyses
in an otherwise challenging market.
data from 37 major markets, highlighting global, regional and country specific
trends. The Report’s detailed assessment and forecasts will enable you to pre-
Ecommerce Share of Checkout by Payment Methods (Value %), Global
pare effectively for the future of ecommerce payments.
4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%
The report highlights that against a backdrop of continued strong growth in
ecommerce, the global card schemes continue to lose share of checkout to 90% 7% 8% 9% 11% 12%
regional and local payment methods such as digital wallets, account-to-account 14% 16%
payments, carrier billing and BNPL offerings. This is a trend seen at an aggre- 80%
gate global level but also repeated in every region across the world.
70% 34%
34% 34%
35%
35%
60% 35%
35%

50%

19% 19%
40% 20%
20%
20%
30%
21%
21%
11% 11% 10%

“
10%
20% 9%
9%
9%
Our mission at Boku is to empower 21% 20%
10% 20% 18%
consumers everywhere to be able to 15% 13% 11%
pay for the services they love in the way
they want, and allow global merchants 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
to seamlessly offer localized payment
choice to unlock new growth. Credit Cards Debit Cards Card-linked Wallets
Non-card-linked Wallets DCB Cash & Equivalents
– Stuart Neal, CEO
A2A Payments BNPL Other

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The growing domination of local payment methods comes hand in hand with Opinion: Are Local Payment Methods
an inevitable increase in diversity and complexity of the ecosystem, charac-
Making Visa and Mastercard Irrelevant?
terized by:
Mastercard and Visa have dominated payments, particularly in Western mar-
▸ the continued proliferation of new LPM offerings to meet the needs of con-
kets, and their size and impact has been drastic, shaping the way people pay
sumers (valuing security, convenience and rewards), merchants (looking to
across much of the world.
acquire new customers, lower fees, and explore new functionality) and gov-
ernments/regulators (focused on sovereignty of payments infrastructure and However, the way global payment trends are evolving threatens to make these
creating ‘healthier’ ecosystems). schemes increasingly less relevant with card’s share of ecommerce transaction
volume declining from 41% in 2023 to 30% in 2028.
▸ at the same time, we are seeing signs of convergence that blurs the traditional
boundaries between different categories of digital payments. Examples include Local payment methods will represent 59% of ecommerce transactions by value
A2A schemes adding BNPL options and digital wallets issuing debit cards. in 2028, from 49% in 2023, accounting for a majority of transaction value online
for the first time. This is in the context of over 65% forecast growth in the value
It is vital that merchants have the tools to understand the evolving landscape
of ecommerce expected over the same period.
and plan acceptance strategies – no business can afford to be complacent in
this dynamic ecosystem.
We hope this report is of assistance on that journey.
To learn more about Boku and our global network of localized payment solu-

“
tions please visit us at www.boku.com

Every country is
unique with different
local conditions, user
preferences and payment
methods. Merchants who
operate internationally must
leverage a differentiated
strategy.
– Adam Lee,
Chief Product Officer

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There are multiple ways in which Visa and Mastercard are being challenged by
A2A ecommerce share of checkout by value, select markets, (%)
local payment methods:
1. Legacy Tech Can’t Keep Pace With Local Methods Netherlands

▸ evelopments at a local level mean that the starting point for access to ser- Brazil
vices isn’t always banks, such as with mobile money services in Africa.
Thailand
▸ Local payment methods increasingly offer a better user experience which is
tailored to local requirements. Poland
▸ Local payment methods also typically have biometric security built in, leading
Colombia
to quantifiable improvements in fraud performance versus cards.
These issues create a massive opportunity for digital wallets and A2A payments Malaysia
in particular, with A2A and non-card-linked wallets to account for over 50% of
ecommerce transaction value globally by 2028 Indonesia

2. A Uniform Approach to Payments is Flawed Norway

One size doesn’t fit all – cards have a blanket approach, which does not work Sweden
for all local experiences and payment scenarios.
▸ Local conditions and requirements can’t be met with a single solution Argentina

▸ In emerging markets, banks cannot provide the reach needed to onboard users
Nigeria
▸ Local nuances and cultural differences are too strong for a single solution
to work. India
▸ ards were fundamentally built for physical payments, meaning their ecom-
merce usage is compromised. Philippines

▸ LPMs offer a much more convincing user experience.

Vietnam
By offering a more tailored experience, LPMs will benefit greatly. A2A payments
will double as a proportion of ecommerce transaction value globally between Pakistan

2023 and 2028, reaching 16%.

Saudi Arabia

3. Sovereignty of Payments Systems

Singapore
Governments and regulators want greater oversight of how payments are made.
Taiwan
▸ Governments and regulators are pushing against foreign organisations owning 2028
the supply of money, warning of systemic risks and limited control of services. United Arab 2023
Emirates

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

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▸ emonetization and taxation issues are being caught up in this debate, inten- The landscape of the payments industry is marked by intense competition, with
sifying regulatory concern emerging contenders such as local fintech startups and alternative payment
mechanisms potentially gaining prominence.
▸ Local card schemes are one solution to this, and these schemes will see
more robust ongoing card usage than other markets. Local payment methods play a pivotal role in empowering individuals, enterpris-
▸ A2A and local digital wallets will be the preferred mechanisms for the transi- es, and communities in developing nations by furnishing them with accessible,
tion away from cash and the informal economy. cost-effective, and culturally resonant financial solutions.

As a market concerned with this issue, Europe in particular will see a dramatic In conclusion, while cards may not hold the same ubiquity or indispensability as
shift away from cards, with the proportion of ecommerce transaction value fea- they once did, they will co-exist with local payment methods and will no doubt
turing cards dropping from 44% in 2023 to just 23% in 2028. adapt and change.

Ecommerce Checkout Value %, Europe

1%
8% 9%

15%
2%
26%
1%
5%
1%
9%
24%

13% 30%

8%
31%

15%

2023 2028

Credit Cards Debit Cards Card-linked Wallets

Non-card-linked Wallets DCB Cash & Equivalents
A2A Payments BNPL Other

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Global Global ecommerce checkout volume %

Key Market Statistics – 2023 1% 1%

2023

8B
TOTAL
GDP/capita
2%
5%
8%

POPULATION
$12,702 29%

76%
BANKED
6B
ADULTS
+7%
BY 2028

25%

12%

17%

2% 1% 2028
Credit Cards
Debit Cards
+65% 20%
ECOMMERCE BY 2028 Card-linked Wallets 17%
MARKET SIZE Non-card-linked Wallets
$60T DCB
3%
Cash & Equivalents 1%
A2A Payments 10%
CROSS-BORDER

59% ECOMMERCE
MARKET SIZE
BNPL
Other
$2T
NON-CARD
LINKED
28% 17%
MCOMMERCE
MARKET SIZE

$5T
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Key Takeaways ▸ Non-card linked wallets are also benefiting from the rise of A2A payments, with
many wallet services being able to leverage centralized payment rails, such as
A2A Payments Gaining Enormous Traction, with Share of Volume and PI or PI, showing that the lines are increasingly blurring between categories.
Value of Ecommerce Transactions Set to Double by 2028
▸ A2A payments will have the strongest growth of any payment method within Direct Carrier Billing Has Strong Reach, Creating Opportunities for
ecommerce by 2028. Merchants
▸ A2A payments will account for 17% of all ecommerce transactions by volume ▸ In terms of reach, direct carrier billing has an impressive depth within different
by 2028 globally, from 8% in 2023, growth of over 115%. This increase is also markets, with services expected to reach 13% of the global population by 2028.
re ected in value terms, with the value of ecommerce payments that is via ▸ irect arrier Billing is used as a payment method at checkout by 13% of the
A2A set to grow from 8% in 2023 to 16% in 2028. global population every month.
▸ A2A payments are unlocking digital payments for many new users. Across
the sentiment surveys we conducted, A2A payments were frequently the
most popular local payment method, for example PI in Brazil. It is this
growth in the penetration of ecommerce, coupled with the easy access that
A2A payment schemes provide, that will usher A2A payments into an increas-
ingly important role.

Cards Playing a Smaller Role, as Local Payment Methods Get Greater

Traction
▸ ards will account for 30% of ecommerce transactions by volume in 2028,

“
from 41% in 2023. A similar fall will be seen in value terms, from 31% in 2023,
to 20% in 2028.
▸ While cards play an important role and can provide fairly universal access
to ecommerce, they also have challenges, particularly in emerging markets,
where cards are not widely adopted.
▸ ards also have implications for merchants, particularly on cost grounds, undamentally, this study shows
which can be a major stumbling block. that merchants must choose
▸ However, much of the reduction in direct card usage will be offset by growth the right payment methods, and
in card-linked wallets, particularly in developed markets, where Apple Pay right partners, in their markets
and Google Pay have strong traction. to capitalize on ecommerce
growth.
Digital Wallets Enjoying Success, Spurred On By Transition from Di-
rect Card Use to Card-linked Wallets – Mark Stannard,
Chief Business Officer
▸ igital wallets as a whole will account for almost 56% of transaction values
within ecommerce by 2028, showing a remarkable position within the market.

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 global`
▸ However, despite this reach, it represents a much smaller proportion of Cash on Delivery Use Declining, But Still Critical In Some Use Cases
ecommerce volume and value, as a result of its strong adoption for specific and Markets
use cases, rather than widespread ecommerce use. On average, carrier bill- ▸ Cash on delivery (and other cash equivalents) use is forecast to decline
ing is only used around 4 times per year by a user globally, compared to over through to 2028, as more digital payment methods take up the task of grow-
30 for non-card wallet users. ing the ecommerce sector.
▸ Given its broad reach, and user friendly nature, carrier billing is effective but undamentally, while cash on delivery is basic, it does provide an accessibility
underutilized by merchants in part due to the higher costs and slower settle- that other payment methods cannot match, and it is still expected to account for
ment speeds compared to other payment options. 3.4% of ecommerce transactions by volume in 2028.
Therefore, we expect that cash will endure in a more niche role for some time,
Total commerce monthly active users – Global
as markets adopt digital payments.
Non-card Wallets Users DCB Users A2A Users BNPL Users
30% Ecommerce checkout value % – Global
4% 1%
5% 1%

8%
2%
1%
16%
1%
1%

20% 34%

35%

19%
10%
21%
11%

8%
20%
11%
0%
2023 2028

Credit Cards Debit Cards Card-linked Wallets

Non-card-linked Wallets DCB Cash & Equivalents
A2A Payments BNPL Other

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 What Merchants Need To Know
Key Data
Merchants face an incredibly complex market for ecommerce payments global-
▸ Local payment methods will reach 58% of all ecommerce transaction value glob- ly. As such, it is important to focus on a few common themes:
ally by 2028, reflecting a major shift within the ecommerce payments market.
Choice is key: In many of our surveyed countries, a key finding was that ecom-
▸ By 2028, almost 37% of all individuals globally will actively use local payment merce users leverage multiple payment methods, such as India, where the aver-
methods, reflecting massive growth and expansion of the ecommerce market age was 4.8 payment methods used online in the last month per user. As such,
across the world. offering one method will never work for merchants – they have to offer a mixture.
▸ Card values will decline to 20% of transaction value by 2028, from 31% in Country markets are very different: Throughout this report, there are many
2023, reflecting a major shift as the ecommerce market expands. different variances between markets, with user preferences and local payment
▸ BNPL is steadily growing its share of ecommerce values, from 4% in 2023 to methods taking very different forms. As such, a universal, one-size-fits-all ap-
5% in 2028, reflecting steady progress outside of key, already highly saturated proach is not suitable. Merchants who operate internationally must leverage a
markets, such as Australia, Germany and Sweden. differentiated strategy.

▸ A2A payments are seeing strong growth, from 8% of ecommerce spend in User experience is critical: rom the user point of view, in many cases the
2023 to 16% in 2028, a dramatic increase, reflecting major shifts in this market. payment types are free to use. As such, cost is not a key differentiator for users,
unlike for merchants, where cost of acceptance is a critical issue. Therefore, the
battleground is user experience – offering the acceptance channels users want
is vital to conversion, and ensuring that barriers to conversion are as low as
possible can make the difference between success and failure.
This study shows that merchants must choose the right payment methods in
their markets to capitalize on ecommerce growth. ailure to adapt to the evolv-
ing payment landscape with an effective acceptance strategy will leave them
exposed to competition from newer, more agile merchants.

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Methodology Forecast Methodology

Ecommerce Payment Methods – Survey and Forecast Meth- The forecasts use data gathered from a number of Juniper Research’s intech
odology and Definitions and Payment research suites. The forecasts and datasets are updated on a
quarterly basis including the following data sets:
Survey Methodology ▸ Ecommerce Payments
Juniper Research conducted an online survey of 750 ecommerce payments ▸ igital Wallets
users in each of the following countries (10,500 in total): ▸ Mobile Money in Emerging Markets
▸ Brazil ▸ irect arrier Billing
▸ hina ▸ Instant Payments.
▸ olombia These individual datasets enabled us to build a model including the various dif-
▸ India ferent payment methods included within this report, based on a robust, bottom
▸ Indonesia up methodology for each payment method involved.
▸ Japan
ata sources that input into our model includes regulator datasets that are regu-
▸ Malaysia
larly published, disclosures from vendors, and our own proprietary databases.
▸ Nigeria
▸ Philippines Within ecommerce payments, we include the following two categories:
▸ audi Arabia ▸ Physical goods: This includes any physical item ordered via an ecommerce
▸ outh orea service.
▸ Taiwan
▸ igital goods and services: This includes digital services, such as one-off
▸ Thailand
purchases or subscriptions to digital content.
▸ Vietnam
The respondents were incentivized for their participation. The results were not Definitions
weighted. We have used the following definitions in this report:
The results are presented with a 3% margin of error at the 95% confidence level. ▸ Account to Account Payments (A2A) – a payment method that enables
Many of the survey results are presented from the perspective on local pay- users to transfer money from their account to the account of a second party.
ments users. Local payments users were identified as a subset of the respon- This is used synonymously with bank transfer or instant payment in many
dents by identifying those respondents that had selected a greater number of markets. Examples would include PI in Brazil, PI in India, or i EAL in the
local payment methods that they were using at least once a month than the Netherlands.
number of card and card-linked methods they selected. This allows for a deeper ▸ BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) – BNPL is to break a purchase into multiple in-
understanding of local payment preferences in the surveyed markets. stallments over a short period, typically over 3-4 months, and typically without
any direct charges unless there are late payment fees incurred. Examples
would include larna and learpay.

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www.boku.com