Nine by Nine Report 2021-2
Nine by Nine Report 2021-2
Nine by Nine Report 2021-2
The problem? The data fueling that narrative was sketchy, at best. With the
exception of restaurant delivery and e-grocery, we’ll have seen a 3% retained
digital growth after the 2020 eCommerce boom has receded. Target and
Walmart in-store sales are thumping, while online growth has slowed.
Or, to put it more simply: we’ve returned to our defaults. Best Buy, Lowes,
Home Depot. We’re going back to the “store of yore”, and eCom teams are
feeling the pain.
This year’s Nine by Nine will explore the nature of a customer who has returned
to brick and mortar. What does she find? For one, more direct to consumer
brands on the shelf than ever before. She also finds an explosion of private
labels occupying an ever-growing amount of space. When she does shop online,
she finds that DTC brands are engaging in more channels than ever before. Not
only are brands omnichannel, now so are their customers.
If you can manage to acquire a customer in the cookieless future, good luck on
selling them any product. In 2021, supply chain issues are impacting every part
of the customer journey. With supply down, and demand up, there’s less of a
reason to discount what inventory remains. Many retailers are launching resale
marketplaces in response, others are launching digital sample sales or
offloading B-stock on their primary channels. It’s a war out here.
This year’s report focuses on the brands, the retailers, the services, and
collective organizations, which are changing our world for the better. We believe
that, because everyone has to engage in Commerce, that it is a force to bring
about change in the world. Those rated on this year’s Nine by Nine are doing that
in nine distinct ways:
If ever there was a time to look to the world of retail for wisdom, responsibility,
and durability, it is now.
We didn’t set out on this journey alone. We have joined forces with 30 of the
most brilliant minds in our industry to examine the question “what makes a
brand meaningful?” It’s a simple question, with quite a subjective answer. The
reality is, it depends on who is answering the question. So we sought a wide
array of diverse thinkers, founders, builders, and innovators to join us. We’ve
mined hundreds of hours of content, interviewed dozens of operators, and
together we’ve created a framework that will allow us to not only rate the
efficiency of a brands’ ability to change the world, but help us to discover
emerging brands who are hard at work building a better tomorrow.
You can find a full list of our contributors at the end of this report in the section
entitled Methodology. We also included our 80+ Future Commerce Alumni,
contributors to our podcast content over our 250+ episode, 5-year span.
This is not a list. This second annual report of Nine by Nine will spotlight brands
that are making their mark on the world in categories that we believe will define
our future.
The future is, after all, what we make of it. Together we can shape a future we’re
all proud of.
Has any term been more reviled—or more often redefined–than DTC? The wave
of DTC darlings reaching exit from venture-backed, to acquisition, has reached a
fever pitch during this past trip around the sun. The upperclassmen of
digitally-native brands are making their foray into the public markets, and we’re
beginning to see financials for the first time. The verdict? eCommerce is
expensive, omnichannel is a requirement for scale, and very, very, few of them
have reached revenues that justify private market valuations.
Brands in this category are redefining omnichannel. It’s no longer enough to just
be present in every channel. Physical retail, marketplaces, vending, and home
delivery, of course. The new expectation for DTC is to create channels out of thin
air. Live streaming, SMS concierge, store-in-store, entertainment venues,
restaurants, symposiums.
Brands like Skims have fought for channel relevance in a growing category,
achieving the scale of distribution that Skims has in a short three years is a
marvel, even if your founding team includes Kim K. Another standout includes
NOBULL. The “HIIT” brand is now the official brand of Crossfit, has physical
distribution, and forged strategic relationships with the likes of Spotify.
For every new channel that emerges, a new holdco and rollup appears as a path
to eventual exit for brands that are gaining traction as DTC has its coming of age.
Some brands are graduating to becoming their own holding companies, because
why do we have insular marketing teams? Why do we have insular technology
teams? We're better together.
Brand Noteworthy
Category
5 Rogue Fitness Fitness Rogue was able to ride the wave caused
by the rising tide, keeping products in
stock due to on-shore manufacturing.
Inclusivity matters, full stop. Brands can no longer claim ignorance when it
comes to incorporating the myriad expressions of gender, race, ethnicity, body
shape/size and abilities into the fabric of their organization. They must do this
both internally, and consumer-facing.
According to Val Geisler, Customer Evangelist at Klaviyo, “if a brand says they’re
for everyone, then the customer misreads this message as if the brand is for no
one. This creates a shadow of discomfort, and when people are uncomfortable,
they’re less likely to share their data. Long gone is one-size-fits-all marketing.”
It’s this expanded view of inclusivity that inspired us not only to create this
stand-alone category for this year’s report, but also incorporate it as a
dimension within our ranking rubric for ALL brands in the report.
As our methodology section in the end of this report shows, growth and positive
future outlook are heavily weighted in our quantitative scoring. Because of this
we recognize that public corporations which report earnings, and those startups
which publicly announce funding rounds, will naturally gravitate to the top of our
rankings.
Not the least of which is Disney, which can hardly be ignored for their strides in
trying to provide experiences for people of all ages and backgrounds. Their
investment in content like Mulan, Raya and the Last Dragon, and Shang-Chi also
support representation of AAPI (Asian American Pacific Islander) persons in a
year where we saw hate crimes perpetrated against those of Asian descent.
Rihanna’s Fenty took on the Victoria’s Secret model head-on, going so far as to
directly hire five former Angels. The unapologetic and irreverent tone struck a
chord on social media, where the brand has amassed an enviable following. The
growth of Rihanna’s empire has minted her as a billionaire, while providing
beauty and intimate apparel to a traditionally underserved customer base.
The brands included in this category are making good on commitments and
opening up lines of communication with consumers in new ways to realize
growth, and to bring about change.
3 GAP Brands Apparel Old Navy gets the nod on this year’s
list due to size inclusivity,
Athleta signs Simone Biles and
Allyson Fenix. Is GAP back??
Today’s customer is acutely aware of how much power they hold. Just this year,
Kellogg’s Cereal Straws made a dramatic reappearance due to a poll on
Change.org. Dunkaroos are in lunch boxes once again due to a Twitter meme.
The Justice League Snyder Cut was the result of relentless campaigning by a
fandom.
Brands featured in this category are champions of the customer. They’re not just
customer-obsessed, or customer-centric, their customers are practically board
members with a seat at the table.
3 Solo Brands DTC Holding Co with Solo is proof that a holding co can
(Chubbies, Solo obsessed customers actually be more than just an
Stove) efficiency of scale.
4 Barstool Sports Media Brand with From pizza reviews to podcasts, this
impressive DTC media brand has obsessed fans that
business drive 9 figures of revenue in merch
alone
Sorry, Mr. Gates. Curation, not content, is King. Fortunately, Niche Marketplaces
excel in both. Modern curation can take many forms. Education. Expert reviews.
Editorial. We're starting to see the traditional media approach being spun up as
Internet media, and they quickly become a destination for purchasing goods.
No matter whether you’re in home and bedding, furniture, or pet care, it’s tough
to stand out right now.
Where a brand chooses to sell its goods is important. Selling direct to consumer
is just one part of the pie. As those brands become omnichannel they’re going to
need to find places to be discovered and validated. Niche marketplaces are an
ideal place to find both of these in one. And so that’s what you find here - the
emergence of marketplaces focused on category.
Other physical retail marketplaces are recognizable as being more than just
commerce markets, but also content plays. Slice, Food52, and Goop are all
formidable content-to-commerce giants. Goop makes a return appearance for
this year’s Nine by Nine, after launching Goop Lab in 2020, and expanding their
offerings (beyond the jade egg) into apparel, travel, and philanthropy.
Niche marketplaces are setting the stage for the future of DTC brands. In the
future, every brand will be a marketplace. We’re seeing the beginning stages of
this with the success of post-purchase co-selling marketplaces. Watch this
space.
The reason private labels are becoming grails is because private label products
are becoming better than name brand products. Costco’s Kirkland trail mix?
Better than name brand. Compare Whole Foods 365 with traditional CPG
organics. We know what we would pick. These brands and others have created
incredible private label products that are not only desirable because of their
excellent, excellent quality, but are also expertly designed to be more easily
merchandised and marketed. They compete with other modern brands on every
level.
Target, for instance, began revamping its private labels a few years back. This is
not new by any means, but it launched their private men’s label Goodfellow &
Co. about three or four years ago which eventually replaced the license that it
had with Mossimo. And now they’ve just launched a pet food brand called
Kindfull, which looks way more interesting than the other stuff sitting on the
shelf.
When considering all the new, beautiful and hyped brands of the world, think for
a second about the likely volume of customers discovering and purchasing these
sleek entries, compared to dollars spent on house brands. They can't hold a
candle to the scale of big-box private labels that are being sought out by
consumers now. From Trader Joe’s to Amazon, some private labels have
become synonymous with superlative quality.
The dirty truth is, a lot of these in-house brands may not even be recognizable
as a low-cost, value brand anymore. Get ready for a new world of best in class
brands created by in-house teams.
Because house brands aren’t traditionally broken out into sales figures, it’s
difficult to rank the success of these. As such, this is one of two unranked
categories on this year’s Nine by Nine.
Hearth and Hand Home The Gaines own the home category, so
(Magnolia/Target) when they teamed up with Target the
outcome was doomed to the wildest of
success.
Nod (Tuft & Home/bedding The respect for the quality of Tuft
Needle/Amazon) and Needle’s mattress was easy to
transfer to an Amazon exclusive with
Nod.
But it’s the sum of its parts being greater than the whole that makes the concept
of a metaverse so compelling. Our economy, societies, and even our identity
within those communities, now have digital counterparts. That counterpart now
doesn’t just have broad awareness in the culture, it has broad adoption. This is
what makes the collection of seemingly disparate technologies so compelling:
The Metaverse isn’t going to replace real life: it adds an additional layer of depth
and interaction on top of the real world.
The Metaverse is broken down into nine distinct areas of focus to replicate real
life, digitally:
Play-to-earn games like Zed run and Axie Infinity provide for entertainment, but
they also have provided new types of jobs. Virtual stablehands are being hired to
manage Zed horses. There are more Axie token holders in the Philippines than
credit card holders. It’s time to take notice that meaningful employment in the
metaverse is here.
How does this affect physical retail? By 2025, we’re projecting that the modern
definition of omnichannel should include digital goods sales. If not collectibles,
then tokens that provide access to exclusive marketplaces, clubs, or events.
Bored Ape Yacht Identity and Bored Ape is more than a profile
Club Intellectual Property picture project. It’s a universe of
IP that is available copyright-free
to all who hold the NFT. Including
traditional corporations.
CARLY is a stark contrast to her counterpart, H.E.N.R.Y. (Higher Earner, Not Rich
Yet), who you came to loathe during the past year. You know the dude: posting
social justice tweets from a private cabana by the beach in Tulum, equating
global travel with becoming more patriotic, and sharing his receipts from
Erewhon. Ugh.
While we covered CARLY in-depth in our inaugural edition of Nine by Nine, there
is more to say. This year we saw CARLY’s coming out as a consumer. Last year’s
report focused on how CARLY thinks. This year, we focus intently on what they
buy. This unfortunately means that CARLY is reconciling with the effects of fast
fashion while also buying up DUNKIN merch. It’s complicated.
To CARLY, everything is a content funnel: starting with their pastimes and ending
with their own journey to enlightenment.
In order to connect more deeply with CARLY, brands will seek to connect with
them on a spiritual level. They will seek to be more inclusive than with their
millennial counterparts, which is no easy task. Brands’ channels and tactics will
need to evolve, too. We predict a wave of job recs for “chief meme officers” in
the near future.
Modern performance art uses commerce as its canvas. The brand operators fall
into three operating modes: Artists, Autuers, and Anarchists. Brands in this
category don’t make products for mass consumption. They create ideas that
have viral reach. Absurdists are adapting products to make social statements on
capitalism and consumption. Dadaists of the 19th century did much the same,
and in this way, some brands have become the New Dadaists.
A prescient example of The Anarchist is heavy metal canned water brand Liquid
Death’s painting of 100 skateboards... with Tony Hawk's blood. The storyline: he
has bound his soul to the board.
While shocking, the stunt was effectively a copycat of MSCHF’s banned Nike
customizations as a collaboration with Lil Nas X. The so-called Satan Shoes
contained a drop of blood as well as a pentagram and the number 666. MSCHF’s
creation of a miniature toy line of failed startups, and late capitalism games such
as Finger on the App, firmly position it as an Auteur of absurdist commerce.
And then there’s KFC. Their steamy web shorts series featuring a “Sexy
Colonel”, played by Mario Lopez; and their collaboration with PC manufacturer
CoolerMax which featured a gaming PC with a warming drawer for chicken
nuggets firmly positions KFC as an Artist.
Brands that take a holistic view of their impact on their customers, employees,
and partners—how they’re influencing the physical, mental, relational and
more—will find gains in the market to be consistent and more stable. Reputation,
NPS, retention… the list goes on. This isn’t just about a better world. This is
smart business.
Brands like Apple and Walmart are amongst the highest ranked in this list, due
to their outsized impact. Walmart Health expanded its offering to bring health
services to physical stores. As more than 90% of Americans live within 10
minutes of a Walmart, their efforts stand to be the most impactful, especially
considering their creation of an insulin product. Apple ranks highly due to their
non-hardware policy changes, which not only include privacy changes, but also a
commitment to combat CSAM (Child Sexual Abuse Material) on iCloud.
But look to a new breed of brands that built the foundation of their company on
being a positive influence on their customers - and beyond. Brands like
Madhappy have built improving mental health into the core of everything they
sell.
The more unpredictable the world becomes, the more we seek safety and
shelter in routine. Wellness brands promote not just a healthy body or peace of
mind, brands that rank highly in this category encourage other category
competitors to aim higher, to expand their own offerings and services.
Of the over 200 brands we rated from our wealth of contributions in our Future
Commerce Expert Network, we distilled it down to 81. Businesses have a
number of challenges ahead in 2021 and beyond. The goal for Nine by Nine is to
nurture this group and maintain it as a long-running program here at Future
Commerce. As time goes on, we’ll be making revisions to the list and making
additions as we see new brands entering into the marketplace. We’ll also revise
the positions of brands based on news or information that has come to light
since the original publication of this inaugural edition. We hope to inspire others
to create experiences that bring a sense of joy and fulfillment to the customer
relationship. As customers face unknown hardships in the years to come, they
will willingly part with their hard-earned money for products, goods, and
services. Our hope is that a bit more of those dollars will go to brands that are
making this world a better place for all of those involved: from factory workers,
to logistics teams, to customer experience personnel.
Every human being involved in the creation and acquisition of goods deserves to
be treated with dignity and respect. We feel tremendous confidence that this list
of 81 brands on Nine by Nine represents those who have the greatest
opportunity to fulfill that vision.
Klaviyo makes it easy to store, access, analyze and use transactional and
behavioral data to power highly-targeted customer and prospect
communications across email, mobile, and web. The company’s hybrid
customer-data and marketing-platform model allows companies to grow by
fostering direct relationships with customers, without giving up their
valuable data to popular big-tech ad platforms. Over 265,000 innovative
companies like Unilever, Custom Ink, Living Proof and Huckberry sell more
with Klaviyo. Fuel growth without burning through time and resources.
Klaviyo brings it all together: SMS, email, and more.
Make a promise you can keep, then keep the promise that
you made.
Built by the teams who created the ops tech powering Amazon Prime and
Zulily, Shipium helps ecommerce retailers ship their orders fast, free, and
on-time.
eCommerce retailers who own their fulfillment stack are turning to Shipium
to help optimize their delivery promises, order routing, and outbound
shipping. If you sell over $50M GMV per year or ship over 50,000 orders per
month, we can help you save over 2% on your shipping costs while speeding
up delivery speeds and tying competitive promises into your frontend store.
Gorgias: Contributor
Avalara: Contributor
Avalara helps businesses of all sizes scale globally and get tax compliance
right. With international tax solutions from Avalara, businesses can manage
duties and cross-border tariffs, calculate VAT and GST, automate tariff code
classification for shipments, obtain registrations, and manage sales tax
returns so they can grow globally and serve customers around the world.
Headquartered in Seattle, Avalara has offices across the U.S., and in Brazil,
Europe, and India.
Nosto: Contributor
Future Commerce was founded in 2016 by Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange, and
is headquartered in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Of the 81 finalists of our report, the overall diversity breakdown was 29.2%
female-founded and 22.2% POC representation overall.
Methodology
With learnings from the 2020 report under our belts, the Future Commerce team
set out to make the 2021 9x9 development process bigger and better – in terms
of both scope and substance.
After qualitatively assessing Categories & Brands included on last year’s report
for fit within the current zeitgeist, we updated Category hypotheses and Brands
to consider within each, which have critical relevance at this particular moment
in time. In partnership with market research firm Method + Mode, we invited the
Future Commerce Expert Network to rate interest in 12 potential Categories,
and nominate up to three brands for each. This quantitative poll revealed the 9
most compelling Categories to include in the report, and helped round out our
brand list.
The next phase was building our scoring rubric. Five dimensions were included
in this year’s brand score:
· Outlook/Profitability
· Cultural Relevance, powered by Surge.ai
· Earned Media Value (EMV)
· Product Innovativeness
· Social Consciousness: Internal and Customer-Facing Diversity
and Inclusion Efforts
A variety of sources were used to calculate a score across each dimension for a
Total Score for each brand; sources included CrunchBase Pro, earnings press
releases/media reports, Google News/Trends metrics and other publicly
available data.
Our hope is that through leveraging qualitative & quantitative inputs, from a
variety of sources & collaborators in conjunction with the Future Commerce
editorial POV, the 2021 9x9 Report delivers a unique, thought-provoking take on
the current retail landscape.
A number of updates were made from the 2020 report. Namely, Social
Consciousness was given its own scoring, and EMV was deprioritized when
compared with 2020.
Model
“Perfect”
Metric Scale Values Score
Excellent / Good / Neutral / Fair
Subjective Analysis 5-1 5
/ Poor
Outlook YoY Stock Change (if Public) Up / NA or Flat / Down 1, 0, -1 1
Investment in Past 12
Yes / No 1, 0 1
Months (if Private)
Outperforming / Over-Indexing
All-Time Social Media
/ Median / Under-Indexing / 5-0 5
Cultural Relevance, Mentions: Index to Median
Underperforming / NA
Powered by Surge.ai
YoY Change in YouTube
Up / NA or Flat / Down 1, 0, -1 1
Search Results
Mass Media / Endemic Media /
Subjective Analysis 3-0 3
Trade / None
Earned Media Value Extremely Outperforming / Sig
Google News Hits: August
Above Median / Above Median / 5-1 5
15, 2021
Below Median / NA
Disruptor / Competitor / Entry /
Innovation Subjective Analysis 3-0 3
NA
Internal : Diverse &
Inclusive Organization / 1-0 1
Executives
Social Consciousness
External : Diverse &
Inclusive Positioning / 1-0 1
Mission or Product
Brand Score 25