DISCRETE PROBABILITY

Discrete Random Variables

Binomial
Poisson
Hypergeometric
DISCRETE PROBABILITY
VARIABLES
 3

Recall the difference between discrete and

continuous random variables.
Probability 4

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X
provides the possible values of the random variable and their
corresponding probabilities. A probability distribution can be in
the form of a table, graph, or mathematical formula.
Rules for a Discrete Probability Distribution
Let P(x) denote the probability that the random variable X equals x; then
1. σ 𝑃 𝑥 = 1
2. 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 1
Probability 5

EXAMPLE
Which of the following is a discrete probability
distribution?
x P(x) x P(x) x P(x)
1 0.20 1 0.20 1 0.20
2 0.35 2 0.25 2 0.25
3 0.12 3 0.10 3 0.10
4 0.40 4 0.14 4 0.14
5 -0.07 5 0.49 5 0.31
Probability 6

MEAN OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

The mean of a discrete random variable is given by the formula
𝜇𝑥 = ෍ 𝑥 ∙ 𝑃 𝑥

Where x is the value of the random variable and P(x) is the

probability of observing the value of x. It is also called the expected
value because it is the expected value in the long run.

As the number of repetitions of the experiment increases, the mean value of the
n trials will approach the 𝜇𝑥 . Therefore, the difference between 𝑥ҧ and 𝜇𝑥 gets
closer to 0 as n increases.
Probability 7

STANDARD DEVIATION OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

The standard deviation of a discrete random variable is given by
the formula

𝜎𝑥 = ෍ 𝑥2 ∙ 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑥2

Where x is the value of the random variable and P(x) is the

probability of observing the value of x. It is also called the expected
value because it is the expected value in the long run.
Probability 8

ACTIVITY
Find the mean and variance of the distribution

X P(x)
1 0.10
2 0.30
3 0.45
4 0.15
DISCRETE UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION
Probability 10

DISCRETE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

➢ If the random variable X assumes the values x1, x2,…,xk, with
equal probabilities, then the discrete uniform distribution is
given by
Probability 11

EXAMPLE
Example 5.1: When a light bulb is selected at random
from a box that contains a 40-watt bulb, a 60-watt bulb, a
75-watt bulb, and a 100-watt bulb, each element of the
sample space
S = {40, 60, 75, 100} occurs with probability 1/4.
Therefore, we have a uniform distribution, with
Probability 12

MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION

The mean and standard deviation of a discrete uniform
distribution is as follows:

σ𝑘𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
𝜇𝑥 =
𝑘
σ𝑘𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 −𝜇)2
𝜎𝑥 =
𝑘
Probability 13

EXAMPLE
Example 5.1: When a light bulb is selected at random
from a box that contains a 40-watt bulb, a 60-watt bulb, a
75-watt bulb, and a 100-watt bulb, each element of the
sample space
S = {40, 60, 75, 100} occurs with probability 1/4.
Therefore, we have a uniform distribution, with

What is the mean and standard deviation?

BERNOULLI PROCESS
Probability 15

Bernoulli Process
➢ An experiment that consists of repeated trials, each with two
possible outcomes that may be labeled success or failure.

Properties of Bernoulli Process

2. Each trial results in 2 possible outcomes only that may be

classified as a success or failure.
3. The probability of success, denoted by p, remains
constant from trial to trial.
4. The repeated trials are independent.
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Probability 17

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

An experiment is said to be a binomial experiment if
1. The experiment is performed a fixed number of times (n trials).
Each experiment is called a trial.
2. The trials are independent.
3. For each trial, there are two mutually exclusive outcomes:
success (p) and failure (q=1-p).
4. The probability of success is the same for each trial.
Let X be the number of success in n trials.
Probability 18

IDENTIFYING BINOMIAL
EXPERIMENTS
(a) An experiment in which a basketball player who
historically makes 80% of his free throws is asked to
shoot three free throws, and the number of free throws
made is recorded.
(b) According to a recent Harris Poll, 28% of Americans
state that chocolate is their favorite flavor of ice cream.
Suppose a simple random sample of size 10 is obtained
and the number of Americans who choose chocolate as
their favorite ice cream flavor is recorded.
Probability 19

CONSTRUCTING A BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Problem: According to the American Red Cross, 7% of people in
the United States have blood type O-negative. A simple random
sample of size 4 is obtained, and the number of people X with
blood type O-negative is recorded. Construct a probability
distribution for the random variable X.
Approach:
1. This is a binomial experiment with n=4
2. The probability of success is p=0.07
3. The number of successes is x=0,1,2,3,4

Let S=event that a person has type O-negative.

Probability 20

First Person Second Person Third Person Fourth Person

Outcomes Number of
S
S Successes
F SSSS 4
S
S SSSF 3
F
SSFS 3
F
S SSFF 2
S
S SFSS 3
F SFSF 2
F
S SFFS 2
F
SFFF 1
F
Probability 21

First Person Second Person Third Person Fourth Person

Outcomes Number of
S
S Successes
F FSSS 3
S
S FSSF 2
F
FSFS 2
F
F FSFF 1
S
S FFSS 2
F FFSF 1
F
S FFFS 1
F
FFFF 0
F
Probability 22

SUMMARY
Let us create the discrete probability distribution table.
Number of Outcomes P(x)
Successes (x)
0 FFFF 0.74805
1 SFFF, FSFF, FFSF, FFFS 0.22522
2 SSFF, SFSF, SFFS, FSSF, 0.02543
FSFS, FFSS
3 SSSF, SSFS, SFSS, FSSS 0.00128
4 FFFF 0.00002

Recall that the probability of success is 0.70 and the probability of failure is 0.30.
𝑃 1 = 𝑃 𝑆𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝑜𝑟 𝐹𝑆𝐹𝐹 𝑜𝑟 𝐹𝐹𝑆𝐹 𝑜𝑟 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑆
𝑃 1
= 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 + 0.30 0.70 0.30 0.30 + 0.30 0.30 0.70 0.30
+ 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.70 = 4 0.30 3 0.70 1 = 0.22522
Probability 23

GRAPH THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Probability 24

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

The probability of obtaining x successes in n independent trials of
a binomial experiment is given by
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝 𝑥 1 − 𝑝 𝑛−𝑥 ; 𝑥 = 0,1,2,3, … , 𝑛
Probability 25

EXAMPLE

According to CTIA, 72% of all adult Americans would

rather give up chocolate than their cell phone. In a
random sample of 10 adult Americans, what is the
probability that
a) Exactly 8 would rather give up chocolate?
b) Fewer than 3 would rather give up chocolate?
Probability 26

GIVEN:
Approach:
1. This is a binomial experiment with n=10
2. The probability of success is p=0.72
Exactly 8 would rather give up chocolate?
P(x=8)
𝑃 𝑥 = 8 = 10𝐶8 0.72 8 0.28 10−2
Fewer than 3 would rather give up chocolate?
P(x<3)
𝑃 𝑥 < 3 = 𝑃 0 + 𝑃 1 + 𝑃(3)
Probability 27

MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION

A binomial experiment with n independent trials and probability
of success p has a mean and standard deviation

𝜇𝑥 = 𝑛𝑝
𝜎𝑥 = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
Probability 28

NEGATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY

The negative binomial probability distribution can be used to
compute the probability of the random variable X, the number of
trials necessary to observe r successes of a binomial experiment.
The probability distribution function is given by:
𝑃 𝑥 = (𝑥−1 𝐶𝑘−1 )𝑝𝑘 1 − 𝑝 𝑥−𝑘
𝑘
The expected number of trials before observing k successes is .
𝑝
Probability 29

Binomial Distribution
➢ Number of successes is counted for a fixed number of
trials
Negative Binomial Distribution
➢ The trials are repeated until a fixed number of successes
occur.
Probability 30

EXAMPLE
Consider a roulette wheel. Remember, a roulette
wheel has 2 green slots, 18 red slots, and 18 black
slots. Find the probability that it
a) Will take x=1 trial before observing k=1
green?
b) What is the probability that it will take x = 20
trials before observing k = 2 greens?
Probability 31

GIVEN:
Approach:
The probability of choosing green is
2
𝑝=
38
Given x=1, and r=1
1 1−1
2 2
𝑃 𝑥 = (1−1 𝐶1−1 ) 1−
38 38
Given x=20, and r=2

22 2 20−2
𝑃 𝑥 = 20 = (20−1 𝐶2−1 ) 1−
38 38
Probability 32

EXAMPLE
Suppose the probability is 0.8 that any given
person will believe a tale about the
transgressions of a famous actress. What is the
probability that
a. the sixth person to hear this tale is the
fourth one to believe it?
b. the third person to hear this tale is the first
one to believe it?
Probability 33

GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

If repeated independent trials can result in a success with
probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 – p, then the
probability distribution of the random variable X, the number
of the trial on which the first success occurs is,
Probability 34

EXAMPLE
The probability that a student pilot passes the
written test for a private pilot's license is 0.7.
Find the probability that the student will pass
the test
a) on the third try;
b) before the fourth try.
Probability 35

ROLE OF P
The value of p will have an effect on the shape of the distribution.
For a certain value of n,
• The distribution is skewed right if p<0.50
• The distribution is approximately bell-shaped if p=0.50
• The distribution is skewed left if p>0.50
Probability 36

ROLE OF N
For a fixed p, as the number of trials n in a binomial experiment
increases, the probability distribution of a random variable X
becomes bell-shaped.
As a rule of thumb, if 𝑛𝑝 1 − 𝑝 ≥ 10, the probability distribution
will be approximately bell-shaped.
Probability 37

EXAMPLE
a) Graph the binomial probability distribution
with n=10 and p=0.2.
b) Graph the binomial probability distribution
with n=10 and p=0.5.
c) Graph the binomial probability distribution
with n=10 and p=0.8.

Observe the shapes of the distribution

 HYPERGEOMETRIC
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Probability 39

IS A PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT HYPERGEOMETRIC?

In binomial probability experiments, the trials are independent.
Furthermore, if small samples are obtained from large finite
populations, independence can be assumed. The sample is less
than 5% of the population.
𝑛 < 0.05𝑁
If the requirement of independence is not satisfied, the
experiment is hypergeometric.
Probability 40

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A probability experiment is said to be a hypergeometric
experiment provided:
1. The finite population to be sampled has N elements.
2. For each trial of the experiment, there are two possible outcomes,
success or failure. There are exactly k successes in the population.
3. A sample of size n is obtained from the population of size N
without replacement.
Probability 41

EXAMPLE
Suppose that a researcher goes to a small college
with 200 faculty, 12 of whom have blood type O-
negative. She obtains a simple random sample of
n = 20 of the faculty and finds that three of the
faculty have blood type O-negative. Is this
experiment a hypergeometric probability
experiment? List the possible values of the
random variable X, the number of faculty that
have blood type O-negative.
Probability 42

REQUIREMENTS
Since n=20, N=200,
20 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 < 0.05(200)
Independence requirement is not satisfied.

Moreover,
1. The population consists of N = 200 faculty
2. Two outcomes
3. The sample size is n=20
The possible values of x is 0,1,2….,12 only.
Probability 43

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY
The probability of obtaining x successes based on a random
sample of size n from a population of size N is given by
(𝑘 𝐶𝑥 ) (𝑁−𝑘 𝐶𝑛−𝑥 )
𝑃 𝑥 =
(𝑁 𝐶𝑛 )

Where k is the number of successes in a population.

Probability 44

EXAMPLE
Suppose that a researcher goes to a small college
with 200 faculty, 12 of whom have blood type O-
negative. She obtains a simple random sample of
n = 20 of the faculty, what is the probability that
three of the faculty have blood type O-negative?
Probability 45

SOLUTION
Given: n=20, N=200, k=12
Find P(x=3)
(12 𝐶3 ) (200−12 𝐶20−3 )
𝑃 3 =
(200 𝐶20 )
Probability 46

EXAMPLE
Suppose that a researcher goes to a small college
with 200 faculty, 12 of whom have blood type O-
negative. She obtains a simple random sample of
n = 20 of the faculty, what is the probability that
at least 1 of the faculty have blood type O-
negative?
Probability 47

SOLUTION
Given: n=20, N=200, k=12
Find P(x≥q)
𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 1 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 + ⋯ + 𝑃 12 = 1 − P(0)

(12 𝐶0 ) (200−12 𝐶20−0 )

𝑃 𝑥 ≥1 =1−P 0 =1−
(200 𝐶20 )
Probability 48

MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION

A hypergeometric random variable X has mean and standard
deviation
𝑘
𝜇𝑥 = 𝑛 ∙
𝑁
𝑁−𝑛 𝑘 𝑁−𝑘
𝜎𝑥 = 𝑛
𝑁−1 𝑁 𝑁
POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Probability 50

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The Poisson probability distribution can be used to compute
probabilities of experiments in which the random variable X
counts the number of occurrences (successes) of a particular event
within a specified interval (usually time or space).
Probability 51

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A random variable X, the number of successes in a fixed interval,
follows a Poisson process provided the following conditions are
met:
1. The probability of two or more successes in any sufficiently
small subinterval is 0.
2. The probability of success is the same for any two intervals of
equal length
3. The number of successes in any interval is independent of the
number of successes in any other interval provided the
intervals are not overlapping.
Probability 52

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

If X is the number of successes in an interval of fixed length t, then
the probability of obtaining x successes in the interval is

𝜆𝑡 𝑥 −𝜆𝑡
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑒 ; 𝑥 = 0,1,2,3 … 𝑛
𝑥!

Where λ (the Greek letter lambda) represents the average number

of occurrences of the event in some interval length 1 and
e=2.71828.
Probability 53

EXAMPLE
A McDonald’s manager knows that cars arrive at
the drive-thru at the average rate of 2 cars per
minute between the hours 12 noon and 1:00
PM. Determine and interpret the probability of
the following events:
a) Exactly six cars arrive between 12 nn and
12:05 pm
b) Fewer than 6 cars arrive between 12 nn and
12:05 pm
Probability 54

GIVEN:
Approach:
2
1. This is a Poisson experiment with 𝜆 =
𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑒
2. Since we are interested from 12 to 12:05, t=5
Exactly 6?
P(x=6)
2(5) 6 −2(5)
𝑃 𝑥=6 =
6!
𝑒

Fewer than 6 cars?

𝑃 𝑥 < 6 = 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 5 = 𝑃 0 + 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 3 + 𝑃 4 + 𝑃(5)
Probability 55

EXAMPLE
On average a certain intersection results in 3
traffic accidents per month. What is the
probability that for any given month at this
intersection
a) exactly 5 accidents will occur?
b) less than 3 accidents will occur?
c) at least 2 accidents will occur?
Probability 56

POISSON APPROXIMATION TO BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

As n →  and p → 0, and np remains constant, Binomial

Distribution approaches a Poisson Distribution where np
= t

RULE OF THUMB
The Poisson approximation is reasonable if n>50 and np<5.
Probability 57

EXAMPLE
In a manufacturing process where glass
products are produced, defects or bubbles
occur, occasionally rendering the piece
undesirable for marketing. It is known that,
on average, 1 in every 1000 of these items
produced has one or more bubbles. What is
the probability that a random sample of 8000
will yield fewer than 7 items possessing
bubbles?
MULTINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Probability 59

MULTINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

If a given trial can result in k outcomes E1, E2,…,Ek with
probabilities p1, p2,,…pk, then the probability distribution of
the random variables X1, X2, …, Xk, representing the number
of occurrences for E1, E2,…,Ek in n independent trials is

with

𝒏! 𝒙 𝒙 𝒙
𝑷= × 𝒑𝟏𝟏 × 𝒑𝟐𝟐 × 𝒑𝒌𝒌
𝒙𝟏 ! 𝒙𝟐 ! … 𝒙𝒌 !
Probability 60

EXAMPLE
According to a genetics theory, a certain cross of
guinea pigs will result in red, black, and white
offspring in the ratio 8:4:4. Find the probability
that among 8 offspring 5 will be red, 2 black, and
1 white.
Probability 61

EXAMPLE
The probabilities are 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.1,
respectively, that a delegate to a certain
convention arrived by air, bus, automobile, or
train. What is the probability that among 9
delegates randomly selected at this convention, 3
arrived by air, 3 arrived by bus, 1 arrived by
automobile, and 2 arrived by train?
REFERENCE
Statistics: Informed Decisions
using Data with Integrated
Review by Michael Sullivan III

Chapter 5
Probability

ACTIVITY 63

1. Identify the appropriate distribution.

2. Identify the pertinent values: x, n, p, etc.
3. Create a probability distribution table.
Probability

ACTIVITY 64

To avoid detection at customs, a traveler places 6

narcotic tablets in a bottle containing 9 vitamin pills
that are similar in appearance. If the customs official
selects 3 of the tablets at random for analysis, what
is the probability that the traveler will be arrested
for illegal possession of narcotics?
Probability

ACTIVITY 65

An oil company conducts a geological study that

indicates that an exploratory oil well should have a
20% chance of striking oil. What is the probability
that the second strike comes on the third well
drilled?
Probability

ACTIVITY 66

A representative from the National Football League's Marketing

Division randomly selects people on a random street in Kansas
City, Kansas until he finds a person who attended the last home
football game. Let p, the probability that he succeeds in finding
such a person, equal 0.20. And, let X denote the number of
people he selects until he finds his first success. What is the
probability that the marketing representative must select 4
people before he finds one who attended the last home football
game?
Probability

ACTIVITY 67

A bag contains 5 green balls and 3 red balls. If three

balls are drawn from the bag randomly with
replacement, find the probability that at least 1 is
red.
Probability

ACTIVITY 68

Suppose a card is drawn randomly from an ordinary

deck of playing cards, and then put back in the deck.
This exercise is repeated five times. What is the
probability of drawing 1 spade, 1 heart, 1 diamond,
and 2 clubs?