Discrete and Continuous

Probability Distributions
 Random Variables
A random variable x represents a numerical value associated
with each outcome of a probability distribution.
A random variable is discrete if it has a finite or countable
number of possible outcomes that can be listed.
x
0 2 4 6 8 10

A random variable is continuous if it has an uncountable

number or possible outcomes, represented by the intervals on
a number line.
x
0 2 4 6 8 10
 Discrete Probability Distributions
■ A discrete random variable is a variable that
can assume only a countable number of values
Many possible outcomes:
■ number of complaints per day
■ number of TV’s in a household
■ number of rings before the phone is answered
Only two possible outcomes:
■ gender: male or female
■ defective: yes or no
■ spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first
 Continuous Probability Distributions

■ A continuous random variable is a variable that

can assume any value on a continuum (can
assume an uncountable number of values)
■ thickness of an item
■ time required to complete a task
■ temperature of a solution
■ height, in inches

■ These can potentially take on any value,

depending only on the ability to measure
accurately.
 Probability functions

■ A probability function maps the possible

values of x against their respective
probabilities of occurrence, p(x)
■ p(x) is a number from 0 to 1.0.
■ The area under a probability function is
always 1.
 Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions

Binomial Normal

Poisson Uniform

Hypergeometric Exponential
 The Binomial Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Discrete
Probability
Distributions

Binomial

Poisson

Hypergeometric
 Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Guidelines
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible outcomes
x1, x2, … , xn.
1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by dividing
its frequency by the sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and that
the sum is 1.
Graphing a Discrete Probability Distribution
Example:
Graph the following probability distribution using a histogram.
Sum of P(x)
spins, x
P (x) Sum of Two Spins
0.6
2 0.0625
0.5
3 0.375
4 0.5625
Probability
0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1
0 x
2 3 4
Sum
 Mean
The mean of a discrete random variable is given by
μ = ΣxP(x).
Each value of x is multiplied by its corresponding probability
and the products are added.
Example:
Find the mean of the probability distribution for the sum of the
two spins.
x P (x) xP (x)
2 0.0625 2(0.0625) = 0.125 ΣxP(x) = 3.5
3 0.375 3(0.375) = 1.125
The mean for the
4 0.5625 4(0.5625) = 2.25 two spins is 3.5.
 Variance
The variance of a discrete random variable is given by
σ2 = Σ(x – μ)2P (x).
Example:
Find the variance of the probability distribution for the sum of
the two spins. The mean is 3.5.

x P (x) x–μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2 ΣP(x)(x – 2)2

2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25 ≈ 0.141 ≈ 0.376
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25 ≈ 0.094
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25 ≈ 0.141 The variance for the
two spins is
approximately 0.376
 Standard Deviation
The standard deviation of a discrete random variable is
given by

Example:
Find the standard deviation of the probability distribution for
the sum of the two spins. The variance is 0.376.

x P (x) x–μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2

2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25 0.141
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25 0.094 Most of the sums
differ from the mean
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25 0.141
by no more than 0.6
points.
 Expected Value
The expected value of a discrete random variable is equal to
the mean of the random variable.
Expected Value = E(x) = μ = ΣxP(x).
Example:
At a raffle, 500 tickets are sold for $1 each for two prizes of
$100 and $50. What is the expected value of your gain?

Your gain for the $100 prize is $100 – $1 = $99.

Your gain for the $50 prize is $50 – $1 = $49.
Write a probability distribution for the possible gains (or
outcomes).
 Expected Value
Example continued:
At a raffle, 500 tickets are sold for $1 each for two prizes of
$100 and $50. What is the expected value of your gain?
Gain, x P (x)
E(x) = ΣxP(x).
$99

$49

–$1
Because the expected value is
Winning negative, you can expect to lose
no prize
$0.70 for each ticket you buy.
 Probability Mass Functions (PMFs)
compute the probability that a discrete random variable equals
a specific value.

Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs)

we only define for the possible values of the random variable. 
 The Binomial Distribution

■ Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution:

■ A trial has only two possible outcomes – “success” or
“failure”
■ There is a fixed number, n, of identical trials
■ The trials of the experiment are independent of each
other
■ The probability of a success, p, remains constant from
trial to trial
■ If p represents the probability of a success, then
(1-p) = q is the probability of a failure
 Binomial Distribution Settings

■ A manufacturing plant labels items as

either defective or acceptable
■ A firm bidding for a contract will either get
the contract or not
■ A marketing research firm receives survey
responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will
not”
■ New job applicants either accept the offer
or reject it
 Counting Rule for Combinations
■ A combination is an outcome of an experiment
where x objects are selected from a group of n
objects

where:
n! =n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
x! = x(x - 1)(x - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1 (by definition)
 Binomial Distribution Formula

n! x n−x
P(x = p q
) x (n − x )!
!
P(x) = probability of x successes in n trials,
with probability of success p on each trial
Example: Flip a coin four
times, let x = # heads:
x = number of ‘successes’ in sample,
n=4
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
p = probability of “success” per trial p = 0.5
q = probability of “failure” = (1 – p) q = (1 - .5) = .5
n = number of trials (sample size) x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
 Binomial Distribution
■ The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the
values of p and n
Mean .6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
.4
■ Here, n = 5 and p = .1 .2
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

.6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.4
■ Here, n = 5 and p = .5 .2
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
 Binomial Distribution
Characteristics
■ Mean

■ Variance and Standard Deviation

Where n = sample size

p = probability of success
q = (1 – p) = probability of failure
 Binomial Characteristics
Examples

Mean .6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
.4
.2
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

.6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.4
.2
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
 Using Binomial Tables
n = 10
x p=.15 p=.20 p=.25 p=.30 p=.35 p=.40 p=.45 p=.50
0 0.1969 0.1074 0.0563 0.0282 0.0135 0.0060 0.0025 0.0010 10
1 0.3474 0.2684 0.1877 0.1211 0.0725 0.0403 0.0207 0.0098 9
2 0.2759 0.3020 0.2816 0.2335 0.1757 0.1209 0.0763 0.0439 8
3 0.1298 0.2013 0.2503 0.2668 0.2522 0.2150 0.1665 0.1172 7
4 0.0401 0.0881 0.1460 0.2001 0.2377 0.2508 0.2384 0.2051 6
5 0.0085 0.0264 0.0584 0.1029 0.1536 0.2007 0.2340 0.2461 5
6 0.0012 0.0055 0.0162 0.0368 0.0689 0.1115 0.1596 0.2051 4
7 0.0001 0.0008 0.0031 0.0090 0.0212 0.0425 0.0746 0.1172 3
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0014 0.0043 0.0106 0.0229 0.0439 2
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016 0.0042 0.0098 1
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010 0
p=.85 p=.80 p=.75 p=.70 p=.65 p=.60 p=.55 p=.50 x

Examples:
n = 10, p = .35, x = 3: P(x = 3|n =10, p = .35) = .2522
n = 10, p = .75, x = 2: P(x = 2|n =10, p = .75) = .0004
The Poisson Distribution
There are some experiments, which involve the occurring of the number of
outcomes during a given time interval (or in a region of space).
Such a process is called Poisson process.

Number of clients visiting a ticket selling counter in a metro station.

The Poisson Distribution

Properties of Poisson process

■ The number of outcomes in one time interval is independent of
the number that occurs in any other disjoint interval [Poisson
process has no memory]
■ The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very
short interval is proportional to the length of the time interval
and does not depend on the number of outcomes occurring
outside this time interval.
■ The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such
a short time interval is negligible.
The Poisson Distribution

 
 Poisson Distribution
Example:
The mean number of power outages in the city of Brunswick is 4 per
year. Find the probability that in a given year,
a.) there are exactly 3 outages,b.) there are more than 3 outages.
Binomial problems with large sample sizes and small values of p,
which then generate rare events, are potential candidates for use
of the Poisson distribution.
As a rule of thumb, if n >20 and n p <7, the approximation is
close enough to use the Poisson distribution for binomial
problems.
 The Hypergeometric Distribution
■ The hypergeometric distribution has the following
characteristics:
■ It is discrete distribution.
■ Each outcome consists of either a success or a failure.
■ Sampling is done without replacement.
■ The population, N, is finite and known.
■ The number of successes in the population, A, is known
As an application of the hypergeometric distribution, consider the
following problem.Twenty-four people, of whom eight are women,
apply for a job. If five of the applicants are sampled randomly,
what is the probability that exactly three of those sampled are
women?
In summary, the hypergeometric distribution should be used
instead of the binomial distribution when the following conditions
are present:
1. Sampling is being done without replacement.
2. n >5% N.
The mean =is nk/N
 variance =is nk(N − k)(N − n)/N2(N − 1).
 Continuous
Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Continuous
Probability
Distributions

Normal

Uniform

Exponential
Properties of Probability Density Function
■ 
 Uniform distribution
Uniform distribution pdf and cdf
examples

The uniform distribution is used to model situations in which the

probability is equal for all possible outcomes. There are two parameters
for the uniform distribution, the lower bound and upper bound of
possibilities, often denoted as a and b.
Consider that your company is having a strike, and at any point the strike is just as
likely to end as at any other point. Therefore, it can be modeled using a uniform
distribution over the next month of 30 days. What is the chance the strike is over in
the first week (7 days)?

The probability density function for a uniform distribution

is:
P(X = x ) = b−a; x = [a, b]
1

The expected value for a uniform

distribution is:
E [X ] = 21 (a + b)
The variance for a uniform distribution
is:
Var [X ] = 12 (b − 2a)
1
 The Exponential Distributions
■ Definition
■ X is said to have an exponential distribution
with parameter λ (λ > 0) if the pdf of X is
 The Exponential Distributions
■ The expected value of an exponentially
distributed random variable X is

■ Obtaining this expected value necessitates

doing an integration by parts. The variance of X
can be computed using the fact that V (X) = E
(X2) – [E(X)]2.
 The Exponential Distributions
■ The exponential pdf is easily integrated to
obtain the cdf.

The exponential distribution is frequently used as

a model for the distribution of times between the
occurrence of successive events, such as
customers arriving at a service facility or calls
coming in to a switchboard.
 The Exponential Distributions
It is a continuous distribution.
■ It is a family of distributions.
■ It is skewed to the right.
■ The x values range from zero to infinity.
■ Its apex is always at x = 0.
■ The curve steadily decreases as x gets larger.
 Example
■ Suppose that calls are received at a 24-hour “suicide hotline” according to
a Poisson process with rate α = .5 call per day.
■ Then the number of days X between successive calls has an exponential
distribution with parameter value .5, so the probability that more than 2
days elapse between calls is

■ P(X > 2) = 1 – P(X ≤ 2)

■ = 1 – F(2; .5)
■ = e–(.5)(2)

= .368

The expected time between successive calls is 1/.5 = 2 days.

 The Normal Distribution
■ ‘Bell Shaped’
■ Symmetrical
f(x
■ Mean, Median and Mode )
are Equal
Location is determined by the mean,
μ σ
x
Spread is determined by the standard μ
deviation, σ
Mean
The random variable has an infinite = Median
theoretical range: = Mode
+ ∞ to − ∞
 The Normal Distribution Shape

f(x Changing μ shifts the

) distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases
or decreases the
σ spread.

μ x
By varying the parameters μ and σ, we obtain
different normal distributions
 Finding Normal Probabilities

Probability is the
Probability is measured by the area under the curve
area under the
curve!
f(x
P (a ≤ x ≤ b)
)

a b x
 Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is symmetric,
so half is above the mean, half is below

f(x
)

0.5 0.5

μ x
 Empirical Rules

What can we say about the distribution of values

around the mean? There are some general rules:
f(x
) μ ± 1σ encloses about
68% of x’s
σ σ

μ−1σ μ μ+1σ x

68.26%
 The Empirical Rule
■ μ ± 2σ covers about 95% of x’s
■ μ ± 3σ covers about 99.7% of x’s

2σ 2σ 3σ 3σ
μ x μ x

95.44% 99.72%
 Importance of the Rule

■ If a value is about 2 or more standard deviations

away from the mean in a normal distribution, then it is far
from the mean

■ The chance that a value that far or farther away

from the mean is highly unlikely, given that particular
mean and standard deviation
The Standard Normal Distribution
■ Also known as the “z” distribution
■ Mean is defined to be 0
■ Standard Deviation is 1

f(z
)
1

0 z

Values above the mean have positive z-values,

values below the mean have negative z-values
 The Standard Normal

■ Any normal distribution (with any mean and

standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standard normal
distribution (z)

■ Need to transform x units into z units

 Translation to the Standard
Normal Distribution

■ Translate from x to the standard normal (the

“z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of x
and dividing by its standard deviation:
 Example

■ If x is distributed normally with mean of 100

and standard deviation of 50, the z value for
x = 250 is

■ This says that x = 250 is three standard

deviations (3 increments of 50 units) above
the mean of 100.
 Comparing x and z units

μ = 100
σ = 50

100 250 x
0 3.0 z
Note that the distribution is the same, only the
scale has changed. We can express the problem in
original units (x) or in standardized units (z)
 The Standard Normal Table

■ The Standard Normal table gives the probability from

the mean (zero) up to a desired value for z

Example: .4772
P(0 < z < 2.00) = .4772

0 2.00 z
 The Standard Normal Table

The column gives the value of

z to the second decimal point

The row shows

the value of z
. The value within the
to the first .
decimal point . table gives the
2.0 .4772
probability from z = 0
up to the desired z
P(0 < z < 2.00)2.0
= .4772 value
 General Procedure for
Finding Probabilities

To find P(a < x < b) when x is distributed

normally:

■ Draw the normal curve for the problem in

terms of x

■ Translate x-values to z-values

■ Use the Standard Normal Table

 Z Table example
■ Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)

Calculate z-values:

8 8.6 x
0 0.12 Z

P(8 < x < 8.6)

= P(0 < z < 0.12)
 Z Table example
■ Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)

μ=8 μ=0
σ=5 σ=1

8 8.6 x 0 0.12 z

P(8 < x < 8.6) P(0 < z < 0.12)

 Solution: Finding P(0 < z < 0.12)

Standard Normal Probability P(8 < x <

Table (Portion) 8.6)
= P(0 <z<
z .0 .0 .02 0.12)
.0478
0 1
0. .000 .004 .008
0 0 0 0
0.1 .039 .043 .0478
8 8
0. .079 .083 .087
2 3 2 1 Z
0.00
0. .1179 .121 .125
0.12
3 7 5
 Finding Normal Probabilities

■ Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0

and standard deviation 5.0.
■ Now Find P(x < 8.6)

Z
8.0
8.6
 Finding Normal Probabilities

■ Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0

and standard deviation 5.0.
■ Now Find P(x < 8.6)

.5000 .0478
P(x < 8.6)
= P(z < 0.12)
= P(z < 0) + P(0 < z < 0.12)
= .5 + .0478 = .5478
Z
0.00
0.12
 Upper Tail Probabilities
■ Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0
and standard deviation 5.0.
■ Now Find P(x > 8.6)

Z
8.0
8.6
 Upper Tail Probabilities
■ Now Find P(x > 8.6)…
P(x > 8.6) = P(z > 0.12) = P(z > 0) - P(0 < z < 0.12)
= .5 - .0478 = .4522

.0478
.5000 .50 - .0478
= .4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
 Lower Tail Probabilities

■ Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0

and standard deviation 5.0.
■ Now Find P(7.4 < x < 8)

Z
8.0
7.4
 Lower Tail Probabilities

Now Find P(7.4 < x < 8)…

The Normal distribution is

symmetric, so we use the .0478
same table even if z-values
are negative:
P(7.4 < x < 8)
= P(-0.12 < z < 0)
= .0478 Z
8.0
7.4